From Beauvillier to Wilson, we’re taking a look at and grading the 2024-25 season for every player who laced ‘em up for the Washington Capitals for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2025-24. Next up, John Carlson.
The Bio:
#74 | Defense | Shoots: Right
Height: 6’3” | Weight: 220 | Born: January 10, 1990
Birthplace: Natick, MA | Acquired: Drafted by the Capitals in 2008 (1st round, 27th overall)
Cap Hit: $8,000,000 | Signed Through: 2025-26 | Expiry Status: Unrestricted Free Agent
The Scouting Report (via Sports Forecaster):
Few defensemen are better at putting points on the score sheet. He is excellent at moving the puck and finding the open man in good scoring position, and also has the kind of shot that opposing defenses have to respect. Is not a real physical presence despite his size, but has improved his defensive play in recent years–enabling him to continue to play major minutes.
The Stats:
The Charts:
The Key Stats: For the ninth consecutive season and eleventh of the last dozen, Carlson led all Caps skaters in per game ice time (Matt Niskanen led the team in 2015-16, a campaign during which Carlson only played 56 regular-season games). Since the start of the 2010-11 season, Carlson’s 25,369:47 of regular-season ice time ranks sixth in the League (he’s fifth in playoff minutes over the same span), and he’s the only skater on the circuit to have played 19,000 even-strength minutes, 3,000 power-play minutes and 2,500 shorthanded minutes.
The Good: Carlson continued a bit of a late-career resurgence under Spencer Carbery, and remained invaluable to the club at both ends of the ice, leading all Caps blueliners in ice time, assists and points, setting a career-high in five-on-five assists with 27, and his five-on-five on-ice expected goals-for percentage (xG) of 54.1 percent was the highest mark of his career since his 22-game rookie season. And Carlson’s offensive numbers would’ve been even more impressive had he not had a career-low 3.0 all-situation shooting percentage (his career mark entering this season was 6.4 percent).
Carlson’s most frequent partners (the Caps’ three left-handed defensemen) were better skating alongside him than apart from him, which says something given the different mindsets and roles required to play alongside each:
Carlson played tough minutes and beat them (a robust 55.1 on-ice goals-for percentage at five-on-five); what more could you realistically ask for from a 35-year-old minute-muncher?
The Bad: Let’s be real – there are a lot of miles on those tires, and it sure looked like it in the playoffs. While Carlson’s regular-season minutes were big, they were actually a full 2:20 less on a nightly basis than a year ago, with most of that drop coming at even-strength, where the Caps’ alternate captain played 17:43 per night (his lowest since 2016-17 and 2:03 less than 2023-24), fourth-highest among Washington rearguards, so rest assured Carbery is seeing what you’re seeing (to wit, Carlson was also fourth in even-strength ice time in the playoffs, by a wide margin). None of that, in and of itself, is “bad” per se, but rather an indication of a bit of a shift in role as the realities of where Carlson is in his magnificent career set in.
There are some interesting regular-season stats that ain’t great (like the fact that Carlson scored a power-play goal on opening night and didn’t score another until the second round of the playoffs), but the worst of Carlson’s season really came at the worst time: the playoffs. He limped into the postseason (figuratively if not literally), having missed the last three games of the regular season with an undisclosed injury (the only games he missed all year), and struggled at times to keep up with speedy Montreal and Carolina forwards before more or less bottoming out in the last three games of the second round (and he acknowledged that he needed to be better, but downplayed any injuries that might help to explain if not excuse the drop-off).
John Carlson has set a high standard over 16 years in the League and was unable to play to that standard in the playoffs when the Caps needed it. Unfortunately, it’s that simple.
The Video:
The Discussion: Like a fellow franchise legend, Carlson is entering the last year of his current contract, and his future beyond June 30, 2026 is similarly uncertain. His 2025-26 will play a big part in both the team’s and the player’s interest in continuing the relationship, but what is that season likely to look like? What should Carlson’s role be, and how can Spencer Carbery ensure that he gets the most of what Carlson has left when the team needs it most? If the Caps do further reduce Carlson’s role, are there internal options to pick up that slack, or do they need to go shopping? Ultimately, it all comes down to this: just how much gas is left in the tank for the 74 car? (Oh, and by “fellow franchise legend” above, we were of course referring to Brandon Duhaime.)
The Vote: Rate John Carlson below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season – so if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.