FanPost

#OviWatch - not if, but when...


Way back in 2015, when Ovi was ranked #50 all-time for goals scored, I went out on a limb and said that I believed he could beat Gretzky's record. At the time, I was just about the only person saying it, though - an article in USA Today by Kevin Allen said that Ovi had an outside chance of catching Gretzky, way back in 2015. Brett Hull and Barry Trotz also said back in 2015 that Ovi had a shot at breaking Gretzky's record.

As a preface, I'm just a fan. I don't grok advanced statistics, and I like it that way.

Now that Ovi has reached and surpassed Gordie Howe's 801 goals, I am confident that the question is not if, but when for Ovi surpassing Gretzky.

Right now, with his 29 goals in 41 games, Ovi is on pace for 58 goals. I don't know if he'll keep that pace going, but if he has a 50-goal season, he will end the year with 830 goals. That's a good chunk of the way towards Gretzky's 894.

64 goals over the last three years of Ovi's contract is eminently doable for him. Gretzky got his 894 goals in 1,487 games played. Ovi has played 1,315 to date, so 172 games fewer than Gretzky. At the end of this season, if Ovi plays in all 82 games, he will have played in 1,356 games (131 fewer than Gretzky).

I will state, for the record, right now, that not only will Alex Ovechkin score more goals than Gretzky, he will do it faster than Gretzky did.

2022-23 = 1,356 games (if all 82) 50 goals (830 career)

2023-24 = 1,438 games (if all 82) 45 goals (875 career)

2024-25 = 1,520 games (if all 82) 40 goals (915 career) <-- Ovi catches Gretzky and keeps going

2025-26 = 1,602 games (if all 82) 35 goals (950 career)

There were a couple of years there when people said Ovi was slowing down, washed up, etc. - he is neither of these things. As I said, I'm just a fan who doesn't grok advanced statistics, and who doesn't want to. I'm just seriously happy to be able to watch this happen, and I'm looking forward to seeing how close I am at the end of Ovi's current contract.

Tonight, the Caps face off against Nashville and I'm excited to see how we do.

As always, LET'S GO, CAPS!!!

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