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Snapshots of the Week Ahead: Week 27

There are no “easy” games in the NHL, but some, at least on paper, are easier than others. The Caps have a three-game week ahead with games against teams eliminated from playoff competition sandwiched around a bona fide contender for the Stanley Cup.

The Opponents

Philadelphia Flyers (Tuesday/7:00pm – Capital One Arena)

The Caps will wrap up their four-game season series against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday at Capital One Arena. Although the Flyers have struggled mightily after starting the season with an 8-4-2 record, they did win two of the three games against the Caps to date, both by 2-1 scores (November 6th and February 26th). The Caps earned their lone win in this year’s series with a 5-3 win in Philadelphia on February 17th, scoring three goals in the last three minutes to overcome a 3-2 Flyer lead.

Since that 8-4-2 start for the Flyers, they have gone 15-34-9, tied for worst record in the league by points (39, with the New Jersey Devils) and points percentage (.336, with the Devils). Their offense has been almost non-existent over those 58 games, averaging 2.57 goals per game, fourth fewest in the league over that span. Their scoring defense has been almost as bad, the fifth-worst in the league at 3.76 goals allowed per game over that stretch. Their special teams have been several levels below that of “special,” their power play over those 58 games at 11.6 percent (worst in the league) and their penalty kill at 73.7 percent (fourth-worst in the league). Their special teams index of 85.3 (power play plus penalty kill percentages) is worst in the league over that span.

While their problems are many, it starts with scoring first. Over their 15-34-9 slide, they scored first 25 times, but they did little with the early advantage, winning in fewer than half of those instances (12-7-6), 31st in winning percentage (.480). They have not finished games well, either. Winning when leading after two periods is common in the NHL, but while the Flyers are 9-1-3 in games where they led after 40 minutes in this 58-game segment, the nine wins are fewest in the league, and that winning percentage (.692) is third-worst in the league. And coming back from second intermission deficits has been all but impossible, the Flyers going 1-25-2 (.036 winning percentage, third-worst in the league) in those instances over their last 58 games. Adding to the third period woes are the 79 goals they allowed in the third periods of their last 58 games, tied for second most in the league with Columbus. If there is a silver sliver in the rain cloud that has been the Flyers’ season over the last five months, it is that they do come into Tuesday’s game as winners of two straight on the road (4-3 in a shootout over the New York Rangers and 4-1 over Columbus), their first consecutive wins on the road since December 10th and 11th against Vegas and Arizona.

The Capitals are 94-110-11 (19 ties) in their all-time series against Philadelphia, 51-46-4 (13 ties) on home ice. The Caps are 7-3-0 against the Flyers over their last ten meetings, alternating wins and losses over their last six games, each team winning three times.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Thursday/7:00pm – Scotiabank Arena)

The Caps will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second of their three-game season series on Thursday in Toronto. Washington lost their first meeting against the Leafs this season, a 5-3 loss in Washington on February 28th when the Caps came back from a 3-1 deficit on a pair of goals by Tom Wilson (one shorthanded), but seeing the visitors break the 3-3 tie with less than four minutes remaining in regulation and adding an empty net goal for the final margin.

The Leafs host the Caps on a sustained run of success, going 15-5-2 in their last 22 games since February 24th, tied for third-best record in the league by points (32, with Colorado and trailing Boston and Florida at 33 points). Small wonder. Over this 22-game stretch, Toronto has been burning out lights on the scoreboard, averaging 4.45 goals per game, almost a quarter goal per game better than the Florida Panthers (4.24 goals per game). Seven times in those 22 games they scored at least six – yes, six – goals, including a season-high ten goals in a 10-7 win over Detroit on February 26th. Only three times were they held under three goals, oddly enough by Buffalo (twice) and Montreal, two teams than have had their struggles this season stopping pucks.

While Toronto lights things up in the offensive end, their defense can be an adventure, to be kind about it. Over the same 22-game stretch, the Maple Leafs have allowed 3.64 goals per game, the 26th-ranked scoring defense in the league over that period. Eleven times in those 22 games the Leafs allowed more than three goals, four times allowing more than five.

In the special teams category, the Leafs have the seventh-best special teams index of any club over their 22 game stretch since February 24th at 108.9, a 27.1 percent power play (fifth) and an 81.8 percent penalty kill (tenth). Three times in that span, Toronto posted three power play goals – a 6-4 win over Seattle on March 8th, a 7-3 win over Winnipeg on March 31st, and a 7-6 overtime loss to Florida on April 5th. The Leafs also allowed three power play goals to Florida in that April 5th contest, the only instance in the period in which they allowed more than one power play goal in a game.

Toronto also has had success as a front runner over those 22 games. They scored first 13 times in that span and posted an 11-2-0 record, tied for fourth best in the league in winning percentage (.846). What they have not done well is defend late in games, their 31 goals allowed in the third periods of those 22 games tied for fourth-most allowed in the league over that span.

Washington is 76-58-6 (ten ties) in their all-time series against the Maple Leafs, 29-34-4 (six ties) in Toronto. The Caps are 6-4-0 in their last ten meetings against Toronto overall.

Montreal Canadiens (Saturday/7:00pm – Bell Centre)

The Capitals will end their three-game season series against Montreal, when they visit the Canadiens at Bell Centre on Saturday. Washington won the first two meetings, both by three-goal margins – a 6-3 win in DC on November 24th and a 5-2 win on February 10th in Montreal. The Canadiens are in the throes of an especially dismal season, their .354 points percentage (20-41-11) being the fourth-worst of their 104 seasons.

One would think that the Canadiens being the Canadiens, their rink would be a difficult one in which visitors could be successful. Not so. Their 10-20-4 record on home ice is the second-worst in the league by points (24, three more than Arizona) and points percentage (.353 to Arizona’s .300). It is a team that has struggled to score on home ice (2.56 goals per game/30th in scoring offense) and to keep other teams from scoring (3.56 goals allowed per game/27th in scoring defense). And things have not gotten better concerning the latter. In their last eight home games going into the new week, Montreal is 2-3-3 and has allowed 29 goals – 3.63 per game.

The problems for Montreal on home ice start with their starts. In 34 home games to date, they scored first only 12 times. Only the Seattle Kraken have done so fewer times (ten times in 36 home games). It does not get better. Only eight times in 34 home games did the Canadiens take a lead into the first intermission, and while their .750 winning percentage (6-1-1) isn’t awful, the six wins are tied for sixth-fewest in the league. And it continues. Only eight times in 34 home games did Montreal take a lead into the third period, and while they have won seven of those instances, the seven wins are tied for fourth-fewest in the league. This is a team that often gets behind the eight-ball early at home and, for the most part, stays there.

The Caps are 76-74-6 (17 ties) in their all-time series against the Canadiens, 36-40-3 (eight ties) in Montreal. Washington is 6-3-1 in their last ten games against the Canadiens overall.

Hot Caps:

Cold Caps:

Weird Facts:

Potential Milestones to Reach This Week (or soon):

Alex Ovechkin

Nicklas Backstrom

John Carlson

Dmitry Orlov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Tom Wilson

T.J. Oshie

Nic Dowd

Garnet Hathaway

Ilya Samsonov

Vitek Vanecek

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