Nicklas Backstrom was supposed to age gracefully.
He’s exactly the type of player you’d think would do just that – a pass-first and power-play reliant pivot smart and skilled enough to compensate for the inevitable physical decline that awaits (or not) all of us, crafty enough to have avoided most unnecessary contact over the years (but all too willing to engage in the necessary stuff), and, well, Swedish.
Mats Sundin was posting point-per-game seasons into his mid-30s. Daniel Alfredsson had 75 points in 115 games after turning 40. The Sedin twins missed a combined total of nine games in their last four seasons (ages 34-37) and put up 464 points. Henrik Zetterberg didn’t miss a game in his last three seasons (ages 35-37) and finished seventh in the League in helpers in his penultimate campaign.
Nicklas Backstrom, who currently sits in sixth-place in career points among Swedish-born players, fit right in with that group when he signed his current contract (which has three years remaining on it after this one) back on January 14, 2020. That deal kicked in last season, and the 33-year-old Swede was everything the Caps could’ve hoped for, leading the team in scoring (53 points in 55 games during the shortened campaign) and posting terrific underlying metrics:
Then a not-at-all funny thing happened. A lingering hip issue dogged Backstrom down the stretch and into the playoffs (where he was a non-factor) and Backstrom wasn’t ready to start the 2021-22 season.
Backstrom missed the first 28 games of the season, and has been a shadow of himself in the 32 he has played, posting the lowest per-game goal and point rates of his career and underlying metrics that echo those struggles:
Those are three different views of Backstrom’s 2021-22 season so far, none of them particularly favorable, and all pointing to the cliff that none of us saw coming:
Whether we’re looking at expected or actual goals above replacement (GAR) Those are pretty steep declines, and both bring Backstrom to within spitting distance of replacement-level.
Backstrom has been a model of consistency over his career, but what makes this dip particularly concerning is that hip injury. Tragically, hip injuries can often linger (as Backstrom’s has, with his most recent ailment dating back to what led to arthroscopic surgery in 2015), at best and be career-enders at worst (at least from a hockey perspective).
One can’t help but think of Ryan Kesler.
Now, Kesler had resurfacing surgeries, something that Backstrom hasn’t dealt with, so their cases are very, very different… for now. But reading things like “Going to the rink, being in pain and then not being able to do what you normally do” highlights the tolls these types of injuries can take and what these players put themselves through. Backstrom himself said he was “in pain since November” when he had his arthroscopic surgery… in May of 2015, half a year (and a nearly a full NHL season in which he didn’t miss a single game) later.
But players can and do recover from hip injuries and surgery. Take former Bruin David Krejci for example:
More recently, David Pastrnak, Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Seguin have all undergone hip surgeries and made it back (some better than others… it doesn’t sound like Seguin’s recovery was much fun). Ryan Callahan, too, who “admitted that he wondered if his lingering right hip injury might be career-threatening” but made it back to play parts of two seasons. Those players were all markedly younger than Backstrom is now, roughly where he was when he got scoped… and made it back to not only rack up another 361 points (and counting), but to hoist the Stanley Cup over his head. But that was also 450 grueling NHL games ago. And missing a third of a season to rest up that hip to get to “playable” can’t be a good sign.
As for Kesler (and Backstrom), there’s life after hockey to consider.
One wonders what age Backstrom’s 34-year-old body is, and how long he can keep adding exponentially to that number.
There is some reason for optimism – the line of Backstrom, Anthony Mantha and T.J. Oshie has been good in unfortunately limited minutes (and the addition of Mantha on his own has helped as well). But the harsh reality is that Nicklas Backstrom may never be “Nicklas Backstrom” again – if your $9.2-million center needs a $5.7-million winger or two to be effective, he’s probably not a $9.2-million center.
That doesn’t mean he can’t be a productive player, of course. Skating has never been his strongest asset, so as long as he can suit up, he’s probably capable of piling up the assists and making the Caps’ power play work. He’s smart and skilled enough to do that. Gracefully.