Comments / New

Snapshots of the Week Ahead: Week 21

The pace picks up for the Washington Capitals in Week 21, both in workload with a three-game week and in the pace their opponents set when they take the ice. This is a week that presents stiff challenges for a team that sometimes struggles against teams that play up-tempo. Caps fans hope the home cooking on the three-game home slate will be tasty.

The Opponents

Toronto Maple Leafs (Monday/7:00pm – Capital One Arena)

Washington will face the Maple Leafs for the first of three matchups this season on Monday. Toronto’s team song might be the old Ray Stevens tune, “The Streak.” Not that the Leafs skate without the benefit of uniforms, but for their propensity this season for streaks. On the winning side they have streaks of six, five (three times), and four games. On the losing side, Toronto has streaks of three and four games, and they lost consecutive games on two other occasions. They have embarked on another winning streak, defeating the Minnesota Wild on Thursday and the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday after enduring a three-game losing streak. 

The usual line of thinking about the Leafs is that they are primarily an offensive team, and to a large extent this is true. They head into the week with the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the league at 3.65 goals per game. They come into this game having just rung up the Detroit Red Wings for ten goals, the first time that a team recorded ten goals in a game since Montreal beat Detroit, 10-1, back on December 2, 2017. It was the fifth time in their last 13 games that Toronto scored at least six goals in a game. The Leafs scored 59 goals in those last 13 games (4.54 per game). Nineteen of 20 skaters to dress for the Leafs in that stretch have points; 15 have goals. They are a team on fire in the offensive end over the last month.

However, while overshadowed by the offense, Toronto’s defense has been decent over the season as a whole. They are by no means a shutdown team that will suffocate teams in their own end, but they do rank 14th in scoring defense. But cracks have appeared in their defense. Over those same 13 games leading up to Monday’s matchup, the Maple Leafs have allowed four or more goals seven times, ending with the seven they allowed to the Red Wings on Saturday, and allowed an average of 3.54 goals per game.

The Caps are 76-57-6 (ten ties) in their all-time series against Toronto, 47-23-2 (four ties) on home ice. Washington is 7-3-0 against Toronto in their last ten meetings overall.

Carolina Hurricanes (Thursday/7:00pm – Capital One Arena)

The Carolina Hurricanes, who will face the Caps on Thursday, will go into the new week with the best record in the Eastern Conference and on just about anyone’s short list as a bona fide contender to win it all when summer begins in a few months. The Hurricanes started the season on a 9-0-0 run and have not taken their foot off the gas pedal. Only once this season did they lose two or more consecutive games in regulation, suffering a three-game losing streak in regulation in Games 20-22 in late November/early December, including a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Caps to start that skid. On the other hand, in addition to the nine-game winning streak to start the season, the Hurricanes have six winning streaks of three or more games (three, four (three times), and five games (twice)).

While the Hurricanes have considerable offensive talent (sixth in scoring offense at 3.48 goals per game) and balance (seven players with at least ten goals, 17 with at least ten points), they are arguably the best defensive team in the league. Their 2.35 goals allowed per game are fewest in the league, and their penalty kill (91.3 percent) is tops in the league. They have allowed only 28.8 shots per game, fewer than any team in the league except Los Angeles (28.3). Only Vancouver and Calgary have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 (82 and 84, respectively) than the Hurricanes (88, tied with Tampa Bay and Los Angeles). Their 54.4 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 rank forth in the league, driven by their 2,085 shot attempts allowed at fives, fourth fewest in the league.

The determining factor in this game could come early. While the Caps continue to lead the league in games in which they scored first (35), Carolina is right there in second place with 34 instances of scoring first (tied with Vegas). And, while the Caps are just 22-9-4 when scoring first, their .629 winning percentage ranking 23rd in the league, the Hurricanes are 28-3-3 in those games, their .824 winning percentage ranking fourth. 

Carolina also closes out games efficiently. In 51 games, they have taken a lead into the third period 28 times and won 26 times (26-1-1), the second-most wins in the league when leading after two periods (Colorado has 28 wins). It is small wonder that they close out games efficiently; the Hurricanes have a plus-28 goal differential in third periods of games overall, tops in the league. They have been especially dominant in this area on the road, too, with a plus-22 goal differential in third periods (37 for, 15 against). No team in the league has allowed fewer third period goals on the road than Carolina, and it is not close.  Their 15 goals allowed in the third periods of 27 road games is six fewer than Florida and the Caps.

There is something of a merciless quality to the Hurricanes as well. They are 17-4 in games decided by three or more goals, their .810 winning percentage in those 21 games being best in the league. No team has fewer losses by three or more goals overall than Carolina.

The Caps are 101-55-9 (14 ties) in their all-time series against the Hurricanes, 54-26-5 (four ties) on home ice. Washington is 7-2-1 against Carolina in their last ten games overall.

Seattle Kraken (Saturday/7:00pm – Capital One Arena)

The Caps are winless against the NHL’s newest franchise. OK, it is one game, but the Kraken dominated in a 5-2 win over Washington in Seattle on November 21st. As if to top that, the Kraken beat Carolina three nights later on home ice, those two wins propelling them to a 4-1-1 stretch that might have had Kraken fans thinking they could replicate the Vegas Golden Knights and their successful inaugural season in 2017-2018 in which they went to the Stanley Cup finals, only to lose to the Caps.

But that was not to be. Since that 4-1-1 run in late November and early December, the Kraken are 7-21-3 since December 6th, the worst record in the league over that span. There is little mystery about that result, the Kraken ranking last in the league in scoring offense since December 6th (2.16 goals per game), 28th in scoring defense (3.61 goals allowed per game), 30th on power plays (13.1 percent), and 29th on penalty kills (75.0 percent).

The odd part about the Kraken performance is that while their team scoring is rather anemic, it is remarkably balanced. Over the 31-game slide, 20 of 28 skaters to play have at least one goal, and 23 of them have at least one point. The problem is that they do not really have a go-to scorer, unless one counts Jared McCann, who has 11 of the Kraken’s 67 goals over those 31 games. Only two other skaters – Calle Jarnkrok (nine) and Ryan Donato (six) have more than five.

Seattle has had a devil of a time getting off to good starts, and even when they do, it has not mattered much. Over their last 31 games they scored first only nine times; only Edmonton has scored first fewer times in that span (seven). In those nine game, the Kraken are just 3-5-1, their .333 winning percentage being worst in the league in this category over that period. At the other end of games, they finish poorly, too. In their last 31 games they took a lead into the third period only three times (fewest in the league by miles, half as many instances as Philadelphia), losing twice. The 19 times they trailed going into the third period is most in the league, and they are just 1-17-1 in those games. This is a team that has found itself severely overmatched over the last 12 weeks.

Hot Caps:

Cold Caps:

Weird Facts:

Potential Milestones to Reach This Week (or soon):

Alex Ovechkin

Nicklas Backstrom

John Carlson

Dmitry Orlov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Tom Wilson

T.J. Oshie

Nick Jensen

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Talking Points

%d bloggers like this: