The Washington Capitals head into Week 17 with a lighter than usual work schedule, playing back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday before the All-Star Game break. Goals might be aplenty this week as the Caps face two of the more dynamic offenses in the league on paper, although one is at the top of its game, while the other is struggling.
The Opponents
Pittsburgh Penguins (Tuesday/7:00pm – PPG Paints Arena)
On December 1st, the Pittsburgh Penguins dropped a 5-2 decision to the Edmonton Oilers and fell to a record of 10-8-5 record, their .543 points percentage ranking 22nd in the league. Since then, however, their record is 17-3-2, second-best in the league by points percentage (.818) since December 2nd. The before and after in the Penguins’ record has been dramatic. Scoring offense is up from 2.78 goals per game in that first 23-game stretch (21st in the league) to 3.86 goals per game (fifth in the league) since December 2nd. Scoring defense down from 2.70 goals allowed per game (ninth) to 2.41 (third). Power play is up from 13.6 percent (27th) to 27.7 percent (fourth). Five-on-five shooting percentage up from 7.2 percent (22nd) to 9.6 percent (eighth). Special teams index (power play plus penalty kill percentages) up from 99.8 (20th) to 102.1 (sixth). Five-on-five goals scored up from 46 in 23 games (ninth) to 56 goals in 22 games (third). Five-on-five goals against reduced from 41 in 23 games (17th) to 39 in 22 games (eighth).
The Penguins have been a formidable team on home ice. After a sluggish 2-3-1 start at PPG Paints Arena this season, they are 11-3-3 in their last 17 games at home. And, their offense on home ice has picked up of late. In their last ten games at home, they scored five or more goals five times. They have been held to six goals over their last three home games, so a drought might be settling in.
If there is an area that bears watching, it will be in the special teams opportunities the teams have. In their most recent 11-3-3 run on home ice, the Penguins have enjoyed 3.29 power play chances per game, fifth most in the league in that span. On the other side, they have suffered only 2.47 shorthanded situations per game, tenth fewest in the league over the same span. That plus-0.82 differential in special teams opportunities on home ice over that span is the fifth-highest in the league.
Washington is 103-105-14 (16 ties) in the all-time series against the Penguins, 43-59-7 (seven ties) on the road. The Caps are 3-3-4 in their last ten games against Pittsburgh overall.
Edmonton Oilers (Wednesday/7:00pm – Capital One Arena)
The Edmonton Oilers have two of the top four point-getters in the NHL (Leon Draisaitl (61/second) and Connor McDavid (58/T-third)). Draisaitl and McDavid rank first and second in points per game (minimum: 20 games). Yet the Oilers rank 16th in points percentage in the league (22-16-2/.575), and it took a four-game winning streak they are on at the moment to get to that high a ranking. What gives? Why is this team struggling to contend for a playoff spot, currently sixth in the Pacific Division and two points behind the Calgary Flames for fourth place?
First, despite having two of the most prolific scorers in recent years, the Oilers rank just tenth in scoring offense (3.30 goals per game). Draisaitl and McDavid account for 52 of the team’s 132 goals to date (39.4 percent). It is a top-heavy scoring team. And at the other end of the rink, the Oilers cannot seem to stop others from scoring, their 3.30 goals against per game ranking 22nd in the league in scoring defense.
The Oilers happen to have a dominant power play (28.6 percent/second in the league), but their 2.80 power play chances per game (tied for 23rd in the league) do not appear to maximize the advantages their power play can provide despite ranking fourth in the league in power play goals per game (0.80). Further, their 84 goals at 5-on-5 are tied for 15th in the league, a neighborhood that includes Detroit and Calgary, ranked 23rd and 12th, respectively in overall scoring offense, not the most dynamic of offenses.
What makes it worse for the Oilers is that they have allowed 91 goals at 5-on-5 (a minus-7 goal differential) and have one of the poorer power plays in the league at 77.3 percent, 20th in the league. Some point to weak goaltending as a cause for the lackluster scoring defense, but it remains that this team has to outscore its opponents to win games, not hold them to low goal production.
Washington is 39-30-2 (six ties) in their all-time series with Edmonton, 25-10-1 (two ties) at home. The Caps are 6-2-2 in their last ten meetings with the Oilers overall.
Hot Caps:
Cold Caps:
Weird Facts:
Potential Milestones to Reach This Week (or soon):
Alex Ovechkin
Nicklas Backstrom
John Carlson
Dmitry Orlov
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Tom Wilson
Lars Eller
T.J. Oshie
Nick Jensen