It’s now been about a month since we checked in on the Caps, and their playoff odds have improved dramatically since:
Somehow, this team that lots of people had on the playoff bubble has started to pull away from the mushy middle of the Eastern division. They recently went 7-0-0 without the presence of one of their top wingers, lost only twice in regulation over the last month, and are now 10 points clear of the Flyers for a playoff spot (albeit the Flyers have a game in hand).
So, how did this happen? Let’s dive in.
However, I have my doubts. For one, as Micah Blake McCurdy has found, zone starts tend to lose all effectiveness after 20 seconds, and they aren’t predictive in terms of predicting shot share. The reason for this is relatively simple: a significant portion of a forward’s shift comes on the fly, when the play is still fluid. Instead, as Matt Cane has found, zone starts can show you a lot in an individual game (and may show you quite a bit about how a coach views a player), but aren’t as predictive once aggregated.
All this being said, 89.5% of non-neutral starts in the offensive zone is quite a bit, and it may be impacting Kuznetsov’s stats at the margins. However, I think there is a simpler explanation for what is going on. To start, here’s Kuznetsov’s xGF & xGA charted by year:
And here’s the chart for the Caps over the same stretch:
This trend extends to high danger chances allowed, where Kuznetsov’s 8.29 high danger chances allowed per 60 is easily the lowest of his career. Ultimately, I think the story is simple: Kuznetsov is emblematic of a Caps stinger defense at 5v5 under head coach Peter Laviolette.
However, you probably wouldn’t expect Nic Dowd, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and Garnet Hathaway to all shoot above 10% at 5v5…so there might be some regression coming.
What happened on February 1, you might ask? Well…
I will not argue that Dmitry Orlov is responsible for the Caps turnaround. However, since Orlov and Justin Schultz’s return (which happened 2 games after Orlov), here’s been the Caps defensemen in terms of ice time at 5v5:
That’s quite a bit of consistency! The Caps main 6 defensemen have started all 19 games in that stretch, and all averaged somewhere between 14 and 17 minutes of ice time per game. Further, this has allowed the Caps to ease off of Zdeno Chara’s ice time, as he’s averaging almost 2 min per game lower since Schultz & Orlov returned to the lineup. Further, as you may have noticed above, Chara and Jensen consistently rank among top Capitals in terms of shot share metrics.
It is worth noting how remarkable this is. Alex Ovechkin, at age 35 (!!), is somehow keeping up his offensive output. Greatest goal scorer in NHL history, indeed.