Week 22 will be “Metro Madness” week for the Washington Capitals. After a week in which they played three games against a pair of Central Division teams, the Caps return to the divisional wars with three games against Metropolitan Division opponents. This could be a critical stretch for the Caps, who have struggled against their divisional foes this season, but it is also an opportunity to blunt the playoff push of the upstart Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers, and to put some more distance between themselves and their archrivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Opponents
Philadelphia Flyers (Wednesday/7:00pm)
The Caps and Flyers will meet on Wednesday in a nationally-televised game from Capital One Arena. This game will complete the four-game season series between the teams, the Caps looking to earn a split in the four games. They won the first game between the clubs, a 2-1 shootout win on November 13th, before dropping consecutive decisions to the Flyers a month apart, a 3-2 loss in Philadelphia on January 8th and a 7-2 drubbing at Capital One Arena on February 8th.
On January 7th, the Flyers coughed up an early two-goal lead to the Carolina Hurricanes, came back late from a two-goal deficit to tie the game and force overtime, but lost in the extra session to bring their record to 22-15-6. But starting with a 3-2 win over the Caps in their next contest, the Flyers are 16-5-1 over their last 22 games, their 33 points tied for most in the league earned over that span with Tampa Bay and Boston, and their .750 point percentage is tied for second, with Boston, behind the Colorado Avalanche (.775). They bring a six-game winning streak into this game overall
While the Flyers have been next to invincible on home ice with the best record in the league, based on points percentage (.781/23-5-4), they have been quite fallible on the road, their 15-15-3 record tied for 20th in the league based on points percentage. What the Flyers have done lately on the road is not so much dominate, as they have at home, as much as avoid losing streaks. After suffering a four-game losing streak to end 2019 and start 2020 (0-3-1), the Flyers are 6-2-1 in their last nine road games, avoiding consecutive losses along the way. Their success on the road has been the product of a productive offense that averaged 4.22 goals per game over their 6-2-1 run. And, not once in those nine road games did they score fewer than three goals. The three goal threshold applies to their scoring defense, too. Three times in those nine games they allowed more than three goals, and those instances account for each of the losses.
New York Rangers (Thursday/7:00pm)
The Rangers have not faced the Caps since winning a 4-1 decision in New York over the Caps on November 20th. Wednesday’s contest in New York is the third of four meetings between the clubs this season, New York dropping the first game in the series back on October 18th, 5-2, in Washington.
A club thought to be in rebuilding mode this season, the Rangers outperformed expectations over the first half of their schedule, going 19-18-4 over their first 41 games. But starting with a 5-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche on January 7th, the Rangers are 16-8-0 and have climbed to within four points of a wild card berth in the Eastern Conference.
The resurgence on the part of the Rangers is not attributable to any single factor; they have been excellent across the board. Since January 7th, when their current run began, they are fourth in the league in standings points earned (32), fifth in points percentage (.667), second in scoring offense (3.46 goals per game, trailing only Philadelphia with 3.74), sixth in scoring defense (2.71 goals per game), first on the power play (31.4 percent). Their penalty killing could use work, ranked 20th over that period (78.5 percent). For the analytically-minded, one wonders if it is a bit of a mirage. Over that same span, the Rangers rank just 23rd in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.3), and they are allowing 33.9 shots on goal per game overall, fifth-most over that period.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Saturday/1:00pm)
The Capitals make their first appearance in Pittsburgh this season when they head to PPG Paints Arena on Saturday to face the Penguins. This is the third of four meetings of the teams this season, the Caps and Pens splitting the first two games in Washington, the Pens taking a 4-3 decision on February 2nd and the Caps winning, 5-3, on February 23rd.
On November 30th, the Penguins lost to the St. Louis Blues, 5-2, to drop their second consecutive decision. They would not lose consecutive games again over their next 32 games, until they lost to the Buffalo Sabres on February 22nd, 5-2, the second of what would be a season-long four-game losing streak. Over that 32-game run, the Pens went 23-7-2, their points earned (48) and points percentage (.750) trailing only the Tampa Bay Lightning (56/.778) over that period.
In some respects, that 32-game run by the Penguins resemble that which the Rangers are on at the moment in that it was a product of effectiveness in multiple statistical categories. Over that span of games from December 4th through February 20th, the Pens ranked 12th in scoring offense (3.16 goals per game), fourth in scoring defense (2.50 goals allowed per game), fifth in power play efficiency (26.1 percent), and ninth in penalty killing (83.3 percent). But like the Rangers, too, the Pens had other numbers that called into question whether it was fundamentally solid play. Their shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (47.9) ranked 26th, and they had an overall shots differential of minus-1.7 shots per game.
The Pens are dragging a six-game losing streak behind them at the moment, over which they have been outscored, 24-8, and shut out twice. Their power play has been anemic (1-for-18/5.6 percent, second worst in the league over those six games), as has been their penalty kill (70.6 percent/23rd in the league). The odd part of the losing streak, though, is that shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5. Their 53.3 percent is sixth-best in that short span of games.