Before the regular season starts, Greg Young is going to tackle the three biggest questions the Caps face this year. First up? What Holtby & Backstrom’s contract extensions could look like.
For the first time in a while, franchise-anchoring players for the Washington Capitals are towards the end of their contracts. Although Nicklas Backstrom & Braden Holtby are two of the most important players in franchise history (and will forever be etched in Capitals lore), they are both up for free agency at the end of the year.
As a bit of a thought exercise and to see the broader salary cap ramifications of the two re-signing, let’s tackle each one to see what a contract extension would look like.
(Note: Luke Adomanis took a look at this question a couple of months ago in the mailbag…so be sure to check out his answer, as well, then read on below for a more in-depth expansion the question.)
First up, let’s take a look at Nicklas Backstrom.
Nicklas Backstrom
When digging into the comparable contracts for Nicklas Backstrom…the tricky part is that there just aren’t many. To wit, here’s a look at all (and I mean ALL) of the contracts involving centers over 30 with a higher than $5.5 million average annual value (“AAV”) over the last 10 years:
That’s a pretty small chart, and it’s not exactly an inspiring one. Although we can’t fairly judge Paul Stastny’s contract yet, the vast majority of these players did not live up to the value of the contract. Even worse, a couple of these contracts (Ryan Kesler & David Backes particularly) have been listed as some of the worst contracts in the NHL.
So, that’s a minefield that the Caps will have to avoid. However, there’s an important caveat to all of this. Let’s take the above chart, but list the points that each player had before signing that contract (we’ll put Backstrom at the bottom for reference):
This list should alleviate some concerns. Most of the terrible contracts involve players with significantly lower career outputs than Backstrom. The only player higher, Joe Thornton (who appears on this list twice!), was obviously well worth it.
Now there’s another problem with that list…the NHL salary cap has obviously risen since 2008, so there’s some measure of apples to oranges when evaluating old contracts. (Inflation is a thing, people!) So for comparison’s sake, here are the last 10 center contracts with an annual AAV over $5.5 million:
Again, there are some obvious caveats that come with the contracts on this list. For one, some of these contracts involve players who are RFA’s, so their value will be inherently suppressed. Second, again as above, a lot of these players either are much worse at generating points than Backstrom (Kevin Hayes & Brock Nelson fit here) or are much younger than Backstrom (pretty much everyone.)
However, there’s one contract that seems to be a decent comparable to Backstrom: Matt Duchene. Admittedly, Duchene has significantly fewer career points than Backstrom (547 to 873) and isn’t as defensively strong. However, he’s the oldest player on that list and both are coming off near-70 point seasons.
So if Duchene is the best comparable, what should that mean for Backstrom? Well, Backstrom is a few years older than Duchene, which should lower his value. However, GM Brian Maclellan has said that he might get “sentimental” on Backstrom’s extension, which may negate that.
Ultimately, Backstrom is probably looking at an AAV around $7-8 million dollars, and probably for around 5-6 years.
Though this is a bit of a raise, it won’t immediately bankrupt the Capitals. A $7.5 million AAV would only be a $800,000 raise on his current $6.7 million contract, and if the salary cap rises next year, the Caps should be able to handle this extension.
Prediction: 6 year, $45 million contract ($7.5 million average annual value)
Braden Holtby
For as complex as the Backstrom extension is, Holtby’s valuation should be much simpler. Here’s the last 7 contracts with goalies with an AAV over $5.5 million:
The problem for the Capitals is that Holtby is likely going to gravitate towards the higher end of these contracts. Although Holtby’s play has dipped over the last 2 years, he’s still won a Vezina (and arguably should’ve won another) and his play did rebound significantly last year. Further, his career stats are pretty similar to Sergei Bobrovsky (who, like Holtby, is 30 years old), who got a huge contract from the Panthers last year.
However, Holtby’s value could ultimately come down to how he plays this year. If he regains all of his form and returns to being a Vezina caliber goalie, he’s in line to earn a Bobrovsky-style contract. If he’s anything like he was last year (or even worse, the year before), he could price himself closer to a $7 million AAV.
Ultimately, whether Holtby comes back to the Caps could depend on whether he’s closer to a $7 million AAV, or a $10 million AAV. If Holtby is closer to $7 million, that wouldn’t be a huge raise on his current $6.1 AAV, and perhaps the Caps could squeak him in under the cap. Conversely, if he’s offered $10 million, that’s going to be very tough for a capped-out Capitals team to keep him.
Prediction: 7 year, $60 million contract ($8.57 million average annual value)