1. No Pressure
It’s Game 7 and neither team’s feeling the pressure… nope, not one bit. The Caps have been there, done that, and have the rings to prove it (or, if the ‘Canes prefer, they can just turn their gaze to the rafters at Capital One tonight). Via NHL.com:
And the Hurricanes? They’re loose and resilient. Via The Athletic:
We’ll see. But the good news is that no one’s feeling the pressure, so expect a good ol’ mistake-free hockey match.
Back to Holtby for a second, though; this ain’t his first rodeo and, despite being on the wrong side of a few tough losses, he’s been very good in Game 7:
That’s a 3-4 record, but a 1.81 goals against average and .934 save percentage. Throw out that abysmal home loss to the Rangers (because why not – he’s gave up as many goals that night as he has in his last four Game 7 appearances combined) and that leaves him with a level 3-3 record despite a brilliant .953 save percentage and eye-popping 1.29 GAA. Yeah, that’s one guy you probably don’t have to worry about tonight.
Oh, and one ex-Cap (no, not Justin Williams) thinks his old club will get the job done…
Miss u, Grubi!
2. Home Ice
As you well know, the home team has won each of the first six games of the series, leaving the Caps with a chance to win four home games in a round for the first time in franchise history.
So what gives? Is it the fans? The locker room? The routine? Something else? Via NBCSW:
Other than the very obvious – wins – how has home-ice advantage shown itself in the series so far?
Not in the face-off circle, where the Caps have won 44.3 percent of draws in front of their red-rocking home crowd, but 49.4 percent away from Capital One Arena. But in terms of score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five shot metrics, the Caps’ home/road splits show a bit of an uptick at home across-the-board, with a big spike in terms of high-danger chances:
The special teams battle paints a starker split, as the Caps’ power play has gone 5-for-12 (41.7 percent) at home and just 1-for-9 (11.1 percent) on the road, while the penalty kill has gone 12-for-13 (92.3 percent) at Cap One and 9-for-11 (81.8 percent) at Whatever It’s Called Arena in Raleigh. That’s a special teams index of (a staggering) 134.0 at home and (not good) 92.9 on the road. As bad as the power play looked on Monday night, it may be reasonable to expect it to look a lot better tonight… if given the chance.
And if you’re looking for another big home/road split, consider Evgeny Kuznetsov: in 39 home games during the regular season, Kuzy tallied 17 goals and 29 assists (1.18 points per game); in 37 road games, he managed just 4 goals and 22 assists (0.70 ppg). In the playoffs? Three home games, five points (all primary assists); three road games, no points (all empty). Kuznetsov leads the Ovechkin Era Caps in series-winning goals (game winners in series clinchers) with his memorable scores against the Islanders and in overtime against the Penguins last spring, and tonight would be a great time for him to have yet another impact elimination game.
(And if those splits are the result of Todd Reirden’s ability to get Kuznetsov’s line out against favorable competition at home… keep on keepin’ on, TR.)
Anyway, we’ll go back to Dowd, via NBCSW, to, err, bring us home on this point:
3. The Bottom Line
What else is there to say? It’s Game 7 and while the first six games (and the 82 that preceded it) may give us some clues as to what to expect, just about anything can happen. Here’s Todd Reirden, via NHL.com:
So take a deep breath and remember – no matter what happens tonight, last spring still happened.