The Capitals begin the post-trading deadline stretch run in earnest this coming week with a three-game slate on the schedule. They sandwich a pair of comparatively weak opponents around the team they are pursuing in their quest for a fourth-straight Metropolitan Division title.
The Opponents
Ottawa Senators (Tuesday/7:00). The Caps host the Ottawa Senators for the first and only time this season, hoping to wrap up the season series with a sweep. Washington won the two previous games in Ottawa, a 4-0 win on December 22nd and a 3-2 win a week later. The Senators, who occupy the last place position in the Eastern Conference standings, are clearing the decks. On Friday, they traded forward Matt Duchene and defenseman Julius Bergman to the Columbus Blue Jackets for forwards Vitaly Abramov and Jonathan Davidson, a 2019 first round draft pick, and a conditional 2020 first round draft pick. Ottawa followed that up with a second trade to their new BFFs, sending forward Ryan Dzingel to the Blue Jackets for forward Anthony Duclair and a pair of second round draft picks on Saturday. The shoe still hanging in the air as the Monday deadline approaches fits forward Mark Stone, among the top ten in goals and points in franchise history, who is widely considered all but gone in the Ottawa scheme of things.
It is hardly surprising that Ottawa finds itself in selloff mode. They have not put together a winning streak of as many as three games in more than two months, and since they last did that, with three wins to end November and begin December, they are 10-23-2, the worst record in the league over that span. Their minus-30 goal differential over those 34 games was second worst in the league (Anaheim: minus-39). Only Anaheim and Dallas had fewer power play chances over that span (85 apiece) than the Senators (89), which negated a reasonably efficient power play (18.0 percent, 18th over that span). One thing the Senators have done well in their two-month slide is avoid going shorthanded. The 88 times they have gone short is third-fewest in the league over that span, and their penalty kill is fourth-best over that same span. The Senators drag a four-game losing streak overall and a 1-7-0 record on the road into the new week.
New York Islanders (Friday/7:00). If a game is going to have a playoff feel to it this week, this is the one. The Caps will have the advantage of catching the Islanders playing in the back half of back-to-back games. On the other hand, New York is 9-0-1 in the back half of such games this season. They have been absolutely dominant in those ten games, too, out-scoring opponents by a 36-13 margin. The Islanders are a bit of an odd team. Going into the new week, they have not lost consecutive games in regulation since early December and have gone 23-7-4 since they did, the second-best record in the league since then, to take command of the Metropolitan Division. However, they have been out-shot over that same span of time, 1011-969, have scored only 97 goals (18th in that span), are under water in shot attempts at 5-on-5 (48.41 percent), have more than 100 fewer takeaways (236) than giveaways (342). They do not have an especially impressive record in one-goal decisions over those 34 games, going 9-7-4.
This team does do two things very well. One, they are in just about every game. In those 34 games they have not suffered a defeat of three or more goals, and only four times did they lose by a pair of goals. Conversely, the Islanders have nine wins in that span by three or more goals. Second, they are suffocating on defense, hardly a surprise for a Barry Trotz coached team. The 62 goals allowed in their 23-7-4 run are, by far, the fewest in the league (Tampa Bay: 75 goals). Sixteen times in that span the Islanders allowed one or no goals, including five shutouts. And don’t sit on a lead. New York is one of only two teams in the league (Tampa Bay being the other) with a better than .500 winning percentage when allowing the game’s first goal (14-11-2/.519). This is a team that makes a two and a half hour game seem like a six-hour grind.
New York Rangers (Sunday/12:30). Washington heads to Madison Square Garden to end the week in a rematch of the February 24th matinee played at Capital One Arena. The Rangers are also in “sell” mode, pulling the trigger on a deal on Saturday that sent Mats Zuccarello to the Dallas Stars for a pair of conditional draft picks, a second in 2019 and a third in 2020. It is hardly surprising, given that the Rangers have been stuck in neutral of late, going 6-6-2 over their last 14 games, generally alternating wins and losses and unable to gain any traction to advance in the standings.
Over the course of the season, the Rangers have struggled with some fundamental aspects. For instance, their shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (46.25) is second worst in the league going into the new week. Their shot differential per game (minus-4.2) is weak. While they are not as bad as the Caps in the faceoff circle, they reside in the same neighborhood, their 47.3 percent winning percentage ranking 29th of 31 teams. They give the puck away too much, charged with the fourth-highest number of giveaways in the league (789).
The Rangers have had the unexpected misfortune of finding it increasingly hard to win on home ice. Since going 9-3-0 in their first dozen games at Madison Square Garden this season, the Rangers are just 7-7-6 in 20 home games since Thanksgiving. And in those 20 home games is the difference between one New York team and another. Both the Islanders and Rangers have played 20 home games in that span. Both teams scored 57 goals in those 20 games on home ice. But where the Islanders allowed only 39 goals over that span, the Rangers allowed 62.
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