1. News from the Caps’ morning skate:
Meanwhile, the Pens also skated this morning. Well, not all of them did…
2. How do you explain what we’ve seen through two games? The obvious answer is “goaltending” (and, related and to an extent, defensive breakdowns and capitalizing on opportunities). Nevertheless, some folks have suggested that while the Caps have had a monstrous edge (score-effects-aided, at times) in shot differential, the discrepancy in shot quality is actually very close. That’s not really the case:
Yes, “high-danger” chances were close in the first two games (the Caps’ edges were six and four, respectively, in those games). But those are rare events – the raw numbers were 13-7 and 12-8 in the two games – so of course they’re going to be closer. The percentages, though, have been in line with the rest of the shot metrics:
But what of the low number of high-danger chances? Jesse Marshall at The Pensblog has thoughts:
Click through to see Jesse’s full analysis (and so we feel less guilty about shamelessly embedding his GIFs), but here’s the point: the Caps are struggling to get pucks to the net from their cycle because the Pens’ defense is sagging back and the Caps’ “low-to-high” offense is leaving too large a gap, which is turning small miscues and blocked shots in the offensive-zone into jailbreaks the other way. The answer? Limit turnovers in that area, allow defensemen to pinch down a little for better shot opportunities (and hit the net with those shots), and generally stay the course and hope the bounces start going your way. Or maybe go to more of an umbrella set-up in the offensive-zone to change some angles and have another forward back(ish) to help on breakouts. Hey, I’m not the coach…
3. You want historical probabilities? Take it away, WhoWins:
One win in six series, one Game 3 win in six 0-2 holes, the Pens riding a nine-series win streak when up 2-0 (and undefeated in the Crosby Era) and a 15-2 record all-time?