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31 - Goals projected for Alex Ovechkin in 2012-13 based on a sampling of ten historically-similar player-seasons, per Rob Vollman's Snepsts67 project:
The method is reasonably simple: it searches post-expansion NHL history for players of a similar position and age whose era-adjusted statistics most closely match the target player, both for the current season, preceding season and previous career totals, in a 4:2:1 ratio.
Read more about the projections and see the results for other players here.
(s/t Neil)