83.54 - Percent of Sports Club Stats simulations of the remainder of the regular season in which the Capitals win the Southeast Division. The Caps - who can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight and a Carolina regulation loss - are 99.999965% likely to make the playoffs per the same source, and currently have a four-point lead over second-place-in-the-Southeast Tampa (which has a game in hand on Washington).
A quick glance at the Caps' and Lightning's remaining schedules:
WSH: @NJD, @PHI, @OTT, @MTL, CAR, CBJ, BUF, @TOR, FLA, @FLA
TBL: @OTT, NYI, CAR, @CAR, OTT, PIT, @MIN, @CHI, @BUF, FLA, @CAR