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The Forwards: Dynamic (and Not-So Dynamic) Duos and Trios

Yesterday we took a look at which Caps defensemen were the most productive when playing together last season. Today, we’re going to take a similar look at forwards, specifically “top six” or skill forwards (a generous definition for some). 

To get us started, here’s a look at the Caps’ top 10 even strength line combinations (by occurrence, which is like a shift, but far more frequent) made up only of skill forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich, Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, Viktor Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov… oh, and Michael Nylander), their respective total points as a line, and their occurrence-per-point (OPP) rates:


Line Occurrences
Points Occ./Pt.
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov 2099 44 47.7
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin 1302 47 27.7
Laich-Fedorov-Semin 442 10 44.2
Fleischmann-Fedorov-Semin 423 6 70.5
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Nylander 333 3 111.0
Fleischmann-Fedorov-Fehr 298 11 27.1
Fleischmann-Nylander-Fehr 277 6 46.2
Laich-Nylander-Semin 258 2 129.0
Fleischmann-Nylander-Kozlov 235 1 235.0
Ovechkin-Fedorov-Semin 233 11 21.2

Notice anything about the three lines with the worst OPP rates? Nylander skated with Ovechkin and Backstrom… and failed. He skated with Laich and Semin… and failed. He skated with Fleischmann and Kozlov… and failed (epically). And since you’re wondering, Nylander had 44 occurrences with the two Alexes (sorry, Giroux, not you) and the line didn’t register a single point. Does anyone really still think he can produce for this team?

Moving along, here’s a look at the top lines, ranked by total point production:


Line Occurrences
Points Occ./Pt.
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin 1302 47 27.7
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov 2099 44 47.7
Ovechkin-Fedorov-Semin 233 11 21.2
Fleischmann-Fedorov-Fehr 298 11 27.1
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Laich 39 11 3.5
Laich-Fedorov-Semin 298 10 44.2
Ovechkin-Fedorov-Kozlov 201 8 25.1
Fleischmann-Nylander-Semin 108 7 12.0
Fleischmann-Backstrom-Fehr 84 7 15.4
Laich-Nylander-Fehr 225 7 32.1

More Ovechkin-Backstrom-Laich, please.

No real surprises here – just about any line with Ovechkin on it, put up points, albeit at different rates, and Semin and Backstrom ain’t too shabby either (and don’t forget the F Street line).

Digging a little deeper, we can look at pairs, rather than trios. Why pairs? In part because the point of the exercise is to try to see, statistically, where chemistry exists between two players and where it doesn’t (and three-way chemistry would just be an added layer to that). And, in part, because the available data lends itself more to looking at pairs of players.

The table below includes relevant data for each of the pairs of the above-named forwards who skated at least 40 even strength minutes together, ranked by plus-minus per sixty minutes of even strength time:


Duo ES TOI GF GF/60 GA GA/60 +/- +/-/60
Laich-Ovechkin 52:20 13 14.90 7 8.03 6 6.88
Fedorov-Nylander 43:21 6 8.30 2 2.77 4 5.54
Ovechkin-Semin 365:22 32 5.26 13 2.14 19 3.12
Backstrom-Semin 381:31 29 4.56 11 1.73 18 2.83
Backstrom-Laich 108:21 12 6.65 7 3.88 5 2.77
Fedorov-Laich 192:21 15 4.68 8 2.50 7 2.18
Backstrom-Fedorov 59:25 3 3.03 1 1.01 2 2.02
Backstrom-Fehr 61:34 5 4.87 3 2.93 2 1.95
Fedorov-Semin 315:11 23 4.38 13 2.48 10 1.90
Laich-Semin 255:39 19 4.46 11 2.58 8 1.88
Fedorov-Fehr 127:49 6 2.82 3 1.41 3 1.41
Fehr-Fleischmann 266:15 16 3.61 10 2.25 6 1.35
Backstrom-Ovechkin 1009:52 63 3.74 41 2.44 22 1.31
Nylander-Semin 117:05 8 4.10 6 3.08 2 1.03
Backstrom-Fleischmann 79:23 5 3.78 4 3.02 1 0.76
Fleischmann-Semin 162:42 9 3.32 7 2.58 2 0.74
Laich-Nylander 284:55 15 3.16 12 2.53 3 0.63
Fedorov-Fleischmann 226:16 10 2.65 8 2.12 2 0.53
Kozlov-Nylander 167:17 7 2.51 6 2.15 1 0.36
Fehr-Nylander 176:30 7 2.38 6 2.04 1 0.34
Fehr-Laich 185:22 9 2.91 9 2.91 0 0.00
Backstrom-Kozlov 537:17 27 3.02 28 3.13 -1 -0.11
Fedorov-Ovechkin 184:29 13 4.23 14 4.55 -1 -0.33
Fleischmann-Nylander 297:11 14 2.83 16 3.23 -2 -0.41
Kozlov-Ovechkin 557:09 30 3.23 35 3.77 -5 -0.54
Fehr-Ovechkin 79:46 4 3.01 5 3.76 -1 -0.75
Fleischmann-Kozlov 143:34 4 1.67 7 2.93 -3 -1.25
Kozlov-Laich 131:11 6 2.75 9 4.12 -3 -1.37
Nylander-Ovechkin 130:50 4 1.83 8 3.67 -4 -1.84
Backstrom-Nylander 72:52 2 1.65 5 4.12 -3 -2.47
Fleischmann-Laich 86:34 2 1.39 6 4.16 -4 -2.77
Fedorov-Kozlov 79:05 4 3.04 9 6.83 -5 -3.79

She’s a doozy, eh? A few notes taken from the data (small sample size disclaimer where applicable):

Given the turnover – out with Fedorov, Kozlov and likely Nylander (from the lineup, at least); in with Morrison and Knuble – some of this data is moot going forward. But a lot of it is worth looking over when thinking about the team’s top two lines. We know who the centers will be, and we know who three of the four wingers will be. But the combinations remain to be seen, and, knowing Bruce Boudreau, we’ll see plenty of every combination imaginable.

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