With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the hot stove is really starting to heat up as media outlets turn their focus toward all things trade, SBN’s NHL trade deadline page goes live, significant deals start trickling in, and CapsNation discusses what, if anything, the Capitals ought to do.
Of course the biggest concern for the Capitals is how to balance any improvement of their current roster with the loss of talented young players and/or draft picks and the subsequent weakening of future rosters, a point expounded upon quite well by D’ohboy in the comments of this Fan Post. So are the Capitals in a position where it makes sense to simply go for broke, even if it means mortgaging a significant portion of their future? Edward Fraser of The Hockey News thinks so:
Uh oh. No one wants to end up where Fraser describes the Penguins as being right now. But is that a realistic expectation for the Caps? Here’s Fraser’s reasoning:
The only thing thing that immediately raises an eyebrow here is the absence of Karl Alzner‘s name in the 2010-11 discussion, though he is referenced as trade bait. As Capitals fans we may not like it, but this team is going to have to make some tough personnel decisions in the near future.
That fact alone does not mean the Capitals are doomed to mediocrity, however. The key in the post lockout NHL is obviously value per dollar, rather than total value and the easiest way to get great value for the dollar is to have young, cost-controlled players (particularly guys on their entry deals) who can come up and provide help for the big club. George McPhee and his scouting staff have done a great job of scouting and drafting recent years and the Capitals farm system has a lot of guys who stand a good chance of being, at a bare minimum, serviceable NHL players. To further that point, let’s take a look at how the Capitals 2010-2011 roster might shape up if they don’t move any significant assets at the trade deadline. First off, it’s important to note a few things:
With those caveats in mind, here’s how the roster could shape up for that 2010-11 season [cap hits in italics are estimates, and we’ve tried to err on the side of caution, rather than giving players unreasonably small contracts]:
Forwards
| Alexander Ovechkin | $9,538,462 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | $6,250,000 |
| Tomas Fleischmann | $3,250,000 |
| Eric Fehr | $2,500,000 |
| Brooks Laich | $2,066,667 |
| Matt Bradley | $1,000,000 |
| Jay Beagle | $920,000 |
| Anton Gustafsson | $875,000 |
| Boyd Gordon | $850,000 |
| David Steckel | $850,000 |
| Oskar Osala | $850,000 |
| Francois Bouchard | $850,000 |
| Chris Bourque | $725,000 |
| Andrew Gordon | $675,000 |
| Total (14) | $31,200,129 |
That’s fourteen forwards (five centers, nine wings) for $31.2 million dollars. Of course, there are no sure things and the odds of guys like Francois Bouchard, Oskar Osala, and Anton Gustafsson not being ready are pretty high, but for the purposes of this discussion, that’s okay. The point is that, given who the Capitals have right now, they can field a competitive groups of forwards without breaking the bank. Now we turn to…
Defensemen
| Mike Green | $5,250,000 |
| Tom Poti | $3,500,000 |
| Jeff Schultz | $1,950,000 |
| Karl Alzner | $1,675,000 |
| John Erskine | $1,250,000 |
| John Carlson | $875,000 |
| Josh Godfrey | $845,833 |
| Total (7) | $15,345,833 |
The defense corps comes in at $15.3 million. What’s nice about this set of numbers is that, aside from Jeff Schultz, all these contracts are already in place and less guesswork is necessary. Of course, to round things out we have…
Goalies
| Simeon Varlamov | $821,667 |
| Michal Neuvirth | $821,667 |
| Total (2) | $1,643,334 |
If the Capitals two young netminders can indeed be ready to be NHL regulars at the start of 2010-11, it would be a huge boost for the club when it comes to salary cap management.
In total we have twenty-three players, proportionally distributed among positions, coming in at $48,189,296. Add in the $2,270,000 in buyout commitments and the Capitals are looking at $50,459,296 in salary cap commitments, $4,540,704 below Fraser’s guesstimate of a $55 million cap. That $4.54 million dollars is more than enough to sign decent player or two to fill out the roster in case some of the youngster don’t pan out (which, realistically, is all but inevitable). It’s also more than enough to sign a quality goaltender if neither Simeon Varlamov nor Michal Neuvirth is ready (or still here), to shore up depth, or to make a big splash if the team needs it. Or even to keep Alexander Semin under contract for one more season.
In short, unless the team makes some very bad personnel decision(s), the Caps should be competitive for the next several years. Sorry, Mr. Fraser – the window in Washington may be small, but that’s because it’s just now opening.