Japers' Rink: FanPosts

Thursday Off-Topic Open Thread

2013-05-23T10:34:13Z

Your place to talk about whatever it is you want to talk about.

Ovechkin as an elite goal scorer, historically

2013-05-20T18:41:50Z

This might not be substantial enough for a fanpost, but I couldn't get the formatting to work well as a post in a Clips thread....

Hockey reference has lists of the players who have most often led the league, finished top-3, top-5, etc in various statistical categories. I pulled a couple of the goal scoring lists, but then also looked at the age at which those players last accomplished the feat, just for some context on Ovi's potential future at the top of the league in goals.

Leading the NHL in goals:

Rank	Name	Times	Age Last
1	Bobby Hull*	7	30
2	Phil Esposito*	6	32
3	Wayne Gretzky*	5	26
3	Gordie Howe*	5	34
3	Maurice Richard*	5	33
3	Charlie Conacher*	5	26
7	Babe Dye*	3	26
7	Teemu Selanne	3	28
7	Brett Hull*	3	27
7	Pavel Bure*	3	29
7	Mario Lemieux*	3	30
7	Bill Cook*	3	36
7	Alex Ovechkin	3	27

Mean Age Last - 30
Median Age Last - 29
8 out of the 13 led the NHL while older than age 27.

Top-3 in the NHL in goals:

Rank	Name	Times	Age Last
1	Gordie Howe*	12	40
2	Bobby Hull*	10	33
3	Maurice Richard*	9	35
4	Phil Esposito*	7	32
4	Mike Bossy*	7	29
6	Mario Lemieux*	6	31
6	Babe Dye*	6	28
8	Alex Ovechkin	5	27
8	Frank Mahovlich*	5	31
8	Charlie Conacher*	5	26
8	Cy Denneny*	5	32
8	Guy Lafleur*	5	27
8	Teemu Selanne	5	36
8	Wayne Gretzky*	5	26
8	Roy Conacher*	5	32
8	Nels Stewart*	5	34
8	Howie Morenz*	5	28
8	Jaromir Jagr	5	33
8	Jean Beliveau*	5	28

Mean Age Last - 31
Median Age Last - 31
15 of 19 finished top-3 in the NHL while older than 27

Also notable that every single player on these lists who is not an active player is in the Hall of Fame.

This might not be substantial enough for a fanpost, but I couldn't get the formatting to work well as a post in a Clips thread....

Leading the NHL in goals:

Rank	Name	Times	Age Last
1	Bobby Hull*	7	30
2	Phil Esposito*	6	32
3	Wayne Gretzky*	5	26
3	Gordie Howe*	5	34
3	Maurice Richard*	5	33
3	Charlie Conacher*	5	26
7	Babe Dye*	3	26
7	Teemu Selanne	3	28
7	Brett Hull*	3	27
7	Pavel Bure*	3	29
7	Mario Lemieux*	3	30
7	Bill Cook*	3	36
7	Alex Ovechkin	3	27

Mean Age Last - 30
Median Age Last - 29
8 out of the 13 led the NHL while older than age 27.

Top-3 in the NHL in goals:

Rank	Name	Times	Age Last
1	Gordie Howe*	12	40
2	Bobby Hull*	10	33
3	Maurice Richard*	9	35
4	Phil Esposito*	7	32
4	Mike Bossy*	7	29
6	Mario Lemieux*	6	31
6	Babe Dye*	6	28
8	Alex Ovechkin	5	27
8	Frank Mahovlich*	5	31
8	Charlie Conacher*	5	26
8	Cy Denneny*	5	32
8	Guy Lafleur*	5	27
8	Teemu Selanne	5	36
8	Wayne Gretzky*	5	26
8	Roy Conacher*	5	32
8	Nels Stewart*	5	34
8	Howie Morenz*	5	28
8	Jaromir Jagr	5	33
8	Jean Beliveau*	5	28

Mean Age Last - 31
Median Age Last - 31
15 of 19 finished top-3 in the NHL while older than 27

Also notable that every single player on these lists who is not an active player is in the Hall of Fame.

2013 Rink Wraps Glossary

2013-05-20T15:00:44Z

It's once again Rink Wrap season, and with a slightly new format for 2013, here's a walk through what you're seeing.

First up is our "Japers' Rink Player Card." Here's Karl Alzner's:

So what's here? There are essentially five sections - self-explanatory biographical info at the top, stat totals below it, and then sections for the player's stats in each of three game situations: five-on-five, five-on-four power plays and four-on-five penalty kills.

Each of the four statistical sections is comprised of three rows (metrics, data and rank), and the three game situations have a fourth row at the top detailing the player's most frequent teammates in those situations. Before we get into the acronyms and whatnot, a note on the "Rank" row. Each player is ranked among the Caps skaters at his position ("D" for Alzner), but only among those with sufficient ice time to be included in group - that's the number in parentheses. For the "Totals" section, that's just about everyone; for the "Game Situation" sections, that's .5 minutes-per-game in that situation. If a player doesn't qualify to be ranked (such as Alzner on the power play above), his data appears, but there's no rank for each stat. (Also, it should be intuitive, but all stats are ranked most/highest to fewest/lowest, with the exception of goals-against and penalties taken.)

Still with me? Good. Here's the list of acronyms (left-to-right) for the "Totals" section, with notes where applicable:

GP: Games played
G: Goals
A: Assists
Pts: Points
PPG: Power-play Goals
PPA: Power-play Assists
SHG: Short-handed goals
SHA: Short-handed Assists
GW: Game-winning goals
SOG: Shots on goal
S%: Shooting percentage
MsS: Missed shots (these are shots taken that get through unblocked but miss the net)
SO: Shootouts (goals-attempts)
+/-: Plus-minus
PIM: Penalties in minutes
Hits: Hits. Duh.
BkS: Blocked shots (that's shots the player blocked, not shots he took that were blocked)
FO: Total face offs taken
FO%: Face-off winning percentage
ATOI: Average time-on-ice (per game)
ESTOI: Even-strength time-on-ice per game
PPTOI: Power-play time-on-ice per game
SHTOI: Shorthanded time-on-ice per game

Easy enough. Now for the "Game Situation" sections:

TOI/60: Time-on-ice in that situation per sixty minutes of game time
Production stats:
- G/60: Goals per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- A1/60: Primary assists per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- A2/60: Secondary per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- Pts/60: Points per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- IPP: Individual Points Percentage (the percentage of goals scored while player was on ice in that situation that the player had a point on... for more on IPP, here's some good reading)
Scoring stats:
- GFON/60: Goals-for per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation when the player is on the ice
- GAON/60: Goals-against per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation when the player is on the ice
- Diff/60: The difference between those last two numbers... positive is good, negative is bad, of course
Possession stats:
- SF%: Shots-for percentage; shots-for while a player is on the ice (not just those he himself takes) divided by the sum of shots-for and shots-against (SF/(SF+SA))... above 50% means more shots on the other goal than on the player's goal
- FF%: Fenwick-for percentage; calculated similarly as SF%, Fenwick adds missed shots to the calculus, so it's the sum of shots-for plus missed shots-for for divided by the sum of all shots that are on-goal or miss the goal ((SF+MsF)/(SF+SA+MsF+MsA))
- CF%: Corsi-for percentage; same as above, except now we've gone and added blocked shots to the mix, so it's the sum of shots-for plus shots taken that are blocked or missed the net divided by the some of all shots on-goal, missed or blocked ((SF+MsF+BkA)/(SF+SA+MsF+MsA+BkA+BkF))
- Corsi Rel: This is essentially the difference between a player's Corsi when he's on the ice versus when he's off it (more here); a high Corsi Rel would indicate a player who is better than most of his teammates in this metric, but doesn't say anything about how he is in the metric as compared to players around the League
OZone stats:
- Start %: Percentage of non-neutral-zone draws in that situation that the player started in the offensive zone
- Finish %: Percentage of non-neutral-zone draws in that situation that the player finished in the offensive zone
Corsi Rel QoC: Theoretically, this is a measure of quality of competition (more here)
Corsi Rel QoT: Theoretically, this is a measure of quality of teammates
PDO stats:
- On-Ice Sh%: Player's team's shooting percentage in that situation when he's on the ice
- On-Ice Sv%: Player's team's save percentage in that situation when he's on the ice
- PDO: The sum of the last two numbers; as noted at BtN, "It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa. " (more... everywhere)
Penalties stats:
- Drawn/60: Penalties drawn by the player in that situation per sixty minutes of ice time
- Taken/60: Penalties taken (i.e. committed) by the player in that situation per sixty minutes of ice time
- Diff/60: The difference between those last two numbers... positive is good, negative is bad, of course

Got it? Grand. That's it for the Player Cards.

Next up is a quick look at the player and his most frequent partners (for defensemen) and linemates (for forwards). You'll see the relative ice time with each outlined in black, and the player's GF% and CF% with each player, with a red ring at 50% for a quick visual point of reference.

Then come Usage Charts, which we've gone into plenty here before, and finally some charts from Hockey Analysis that should be pretty self-explanatory (and if they're not, click through and check out the glossary over there).

If you've got any questions or suggestions, let us know in the comments or tweet us or email or whatever. And,

It's once again Rink Wrap season, and with a slightly new format for 2013, here's a walk through what you're seeing.

First up is our "Japers' Rink Player Card." Here's Karl Alzner's:

Still with me? Good. Here's the list of acronyms (left-to-right) for the "Totals" section, with notes where applicable:

GP: Games played
G: Goals
A: Assists
Pts: Points
PPG: Power-play Goals
PPA: Power-play Assists
SHG: Short-handed goals
SHA: Short-handed Assists
GW: Game-winning goals
SOG: Shots on goal
S%: Shooting percentage
MsS: Missed shots (these are shots taken that get through unblocked but miss the net)
SO: Shootouts (goals-attempts)
+/-: Plus-minus
PIM: Penalties in minutes
Hits: Hits. Duh.
BkS: Blocked shots (that's shots the player blocked, not shots he took that were blocked)
FO: Total face offs taken
FO%: Face-off winning percentage
ATOI: Average time-on-ice (per game)
ESTOI: Even-strength time-on-ice per game
PPTOI: Power-play time-on-ice per game
SHTOI: Shorthanded time-on-ice per game

Easy enough. Now for the "Game Situation" sections:

TOI/60: Time-on-ice in that situation per sixty minutes of game time
Production stats:
- G/60: Goals per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- A1/60: Primary assists per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- A2/60: Secondary per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- Pts/60: Points per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation
- IPP: Individual Points Percentage (the percentage of goals scored while player was on ice in that situation that the player had a point on... for more on IPP, here's some good reading)
Scoring stats:
- GFON/60: Goals-for per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation when the player is on the ice
- GAON/60: Goals-against per sixty minutes of ice time in that situation when the player is on the ice
- Diff/60: The difference between those last two numbers... positive is good, negative is bad, of course
Possession stats:
- SF%: Shots-for percentage; shots-for while a player is on the ice (not just those he himself takes) divided by the sum of shots-for and shots-against (SF/(SF+SA))... above 50% means more shots on the other goal than on the player's goal
- FF%: Fenwick-for percentage; calculated similarly as SF%, Fenwick adds missed shots to the calculus, so it's the sum of shots-for plus missed shots-for for divided by the sum of all shots that are on-goal or miss the goal ((SF+MsF)/(SF+SA+MsF+MsA))
- CF%: Corsi-for percentage; same as above, except now we've gone and added blocked shots to the mix, so it's the sum of shots-for plus shots taken that are blocked or missed the net divided by the some of all shots on-goal, missed or blocked ((SF+MsF+BkA)/(SF+SA+MsF+MsA+BkA+BkF))
- Corsi Rel: This is essentially the difference between a player's Corsi when he's on the ice versus when he's off it (more here); a high Corsi Rel would indicate a player who is better than most of his teammates in this metric, but doesn't say anything about how he is in the metric as compared to players around the League
OZone stats:
- Start %: Percentage of non-neutral-zone draws in that situation that the player started in the offensive zone
- Finish %: Percentage of non-neutral-zone draws in that situation that the player finished in the offensive zone
Corsi Rel QoC: Theoretically, this is a measure of quality of competition (more here)
Corsi Rel QoT: Theoretically, this is a measure of quality of teammates
PDO stats:
- On-Ice Sh%: Player's team's shooting percentage in that situation when he's on the ice
- On-Ice Sv%: Player's team's save percentage in that situation when he's on the ice
- PDO: The sum of the last two numbers; as noted at BtN, "It regresses very heavily to the mean in the long-run: a team or player well above 1000 has generally played in good luck and should expect to drop going forward and vice-versa. " (more... everywhere)
Penalties stats:
- Drawn/60: Penalties drawn by the player in that situation per sixty minutes of ice time
- Taken/60: Penalties taken (i.e. committed) by the player in that situation per sixty minutes of ice time
- Diff/60: The difference between those last two numbers... positive is good, negative is bad, of course

Got it? Grand. That's it for the Player Cards.

If you've got any questions or suggestions, let us know in the comments or tweet us or email or whatever. And,

Life, love and the Washington Capitals

2013-05-18T16:38:44Z

I was eight years old when I first felt the sweet sting of cupid's arrow. Her name was Kelsey and her sun-kissed blond hair and soft blue eyes were so elegant that they made angel's weep and dove's spontaneously combust. Suffice to say, even in the third grade she was way out of my league.

We were in the same homeroom, not because we shared the same age but because my parents -- under the encouragement of my teachers -- thought it would be best for my development if I joined the advanced courses of those older than me.

The transition was neither smooth, nor enjoyable. There was nothing more damaging to my psyche than having to leave my friends who were occupying their time making collages, singing songs and playing games for my personal higher learning. I loathed agreeing with the decision, but as a subordinate, assumed that falling in line was the best recourse to take.

The adjustments I had to make became more difficult with each passing day. Not in course material -- that was the easy part -- but rather in social networking. In a class full of a dozen of your peers who feel like you're infringing on their turf, I faced a regiment of constant bullying. Words. Fists. Humiliation. It was all just part of the daily routine. Luckily, I still had a small cluster of friends now a grade lower which kept me optimistic that better times lay ahead.

That entire year, I would spring out of bed bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, eager to sit next to Kelsey in class. When she finally did find out that I had a school-yard crush on her, she distanced herself. I can't blame her, it likely would have been social suicide for a girl like her to be seen eating lunch a geek/loser/dweeb/etc. like me.

Before the age of ten I was already self-loathing.

***

Growing up, I always loved the sport of hockey. It never mattered who was playing -- though I was partial to the Winnipeg Jets at the time -- or what the score in the game was. Every Saturday night my dad and I would convene in the basement of our country bungalow home to entrench ourselves in its ultimate whimsy. My sisters already asleep and my mom working weekend night-shifts so she could be around to raise us during the week, Saturday's became a ritualistic event. Bowl of popcorn and soda's in hand, dad and I would trudge downstairs and spend four hours bonding around the game we loved. I never told him, but I think he knew he was my best friend.

The Jets' packed up shop in 1996 and I became a tad bit jaded towards the sport. No longer did hockey appeal to me in quite the same way. Players didn't seem as fast, or as strong, or as skilled. The whole thing just seemed blasé.

That was before I met the second love of my life; the Washington Capitals.

For reasons unbeknownst to even me, I was a Joé Juneau fan as a kid. I couldn't be bothered by collecting the hockey cards of Gretzky, Lemieux, Roenick, or Jagr; if it wasn't Joé Juneau (or Teemu Selanne), I couldn't be bothered with it.

The spring of 1998 was as exciting a time as any for a Capitals fan as they made their trek towards the Stanley Cup Finals. Living in small town Manitoba meant I wasn't privy to cable TV or an Internet connection, meaning that it was difficult to religiously follow any NHL team not named the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens. But those playoffs changed things. I still vividly remember being sucked into a second round game between the Caps and Ottawa Senators and seeing names I never thought I'd see on the same roster flash across the screen: Juneau, Bondra, Oates, Bellows, Hunter, Tikkanen, Miller, Berube, Housley, Johansson.

I was in love... again.

That Washington team took me on a wild ride as I travelled through the abyss of personal uncertainty. My parents planned to move our family to the city where I would be forced to make new friends and form new relationships heading into junior high.

Unnerved, those playoffs kept me sound. Juneau banging home the overtime winner that sent Washington to their only Stanley Cup Final appearance shot me over the moon. At the age of twelve, I figured this would be the happiest moment of my life. My mood shifted quickly after they were dispersed by the Detroit Red Wings in a four-game sweep.

Just like Kelsey before them, the Washington Capitals had shattered my fragile heart.

***

In October of 1998, we moved to the city where I again struggled. More taunting, teasing and bullying. Again, I stayed optimistic that my peers could really get to know me that things would change. Then I wore a Minnesota Vikings "Purple Pride" shirt to school and it was game over. I just couldn't deal with it anymore. I convinced my parents I was sick for three weeks straight so I wouldn't have to go to school. The pokes and prods from the doctors trying to assess my non-existent condition were uncomfortable, but nowhere near as painful as the verbal sticks and stones hurled toward me on a daily basis.

When it came time to finally go back to school, I realized it was fight or flight. Over the years I had developed a mouth that was now getting me in trouble with the teachers I lashed out on in order to gain credibility with classmates. I hated myself for it, but it seemed to work as I was often left to recluse. As my grades sunk lower and lower through junior high and into high school while trying to be a different "me", I was as depressed as it got. I trudged forward in my daily world of self-loathing. Each morning after brushing my teeth and washing my face, I would stare intently in the mirror and question which "me" I was going to be on that day. It was a routine I wish on no one. As I tried my best to fade into the peripheries of the hallways, I began to wonder if this world was better off without me.

It's funny now, but I couldn't help but draw parallels of Bruce Cassidy's then-sinking Washington Capitals of the early 2000's.

***

I met the love of my life in the fall of 2004. Though it took us a few years of bouncing around our own failed relationships to realize it, we were made for each other. April 17th, 2007, we finally began dating. An overwhelming wave of happiness enveloped the darkness of my life and like a strong rip tide, tore it from the clutches of my soul. Coincidentally, the Caps began their meteoric rise and were now garnering further exposure in Canada (thanks, Ovechkin). Now in my final years of university, I could afford the NHL Centre Ice package for all games not aired on TSN, which meant the days of Steve Kolbe in my house were officially over.

Almost six years after we started dating my wife and I were married in March, usurping Juneau's OT goal on the happiness totem pole. Though I wouldn't say it, I firmly believed that the Caps would win the Stanley Cup this year as though our life cycle's coincide or something.

Let it be known, I'm imperfect; as are the Washington Capitals. Like a rickety, old porch chair, we both require tender love and care to strip down our rust and restore what was once new in hopes that tomorrow's version of ourselves is better than yesterday's. We are both synonymous and in some cases impervious to pain. Neither of us have lived up to the expectations we put on ourselves, nor have we achieved the goals we've set out for. But my optimism in this team is as strong as it's ever been. From the depths of despair, we have risen and continue to push forward. The story is long and we have yet to write its conclusion, but trust that it's coming.

Today, I have three loves in my life: my family, my wife and the Washington Capitals. Until the day I die, that love will remain unwavering. That is, unless Joe Juneau has anything to say about it.

Before the age of ten I was already self-loathing.

***

That was before I met the second love of my life; the Washington Capitals.

I was in love... again.

Just like Kelsey before them, the Washington Capitals had shattered my fragile heart.

***

It's funny now, but I couldn't help but draw parallels of Bruce Cassidy's then-sinking Washington Capitals of the early 2000's.

***

Today, I have three loves in my life: my family, my wife and the Washington Capitals. Until the day I die, that love will remain unwavering. That is, unless Joe Juneau has anything to say about it.

Whining vs. Winning

2013-05-16T18:15:56Z

Ok, here's the thing. The video of the Rangers player baiting Hillen into a penalty was taken down, and that was my main example of what I want to talk about. I'll try to explain what I saw from memory, and I guess you'll have to trust that I'm not making it up.

Rangers player peeks around and sees no refs looking, swings a chicken wing at Hillen.

Now. Is it "legal" to deliberately take a swing at someone when the refs aren't looking, knowing you won't get caught? I would say yes, if you don't actually make contact so video reviews don't get you suspended, that is the way things work in the real world. The refs can only call what they see. Should the refs be making every attempt possible to see everything all the time? Sure. Are they responsible if a player catches them looking somewhere else before deliberately provoking someone? No.

What would, say, Avery do if someone did this to him? He would scream as if shot in the gonads and crumple to the ice as loudly as possible, attracting attention of the refs. What he would NOT do is retaliate, which is exactly what the Rangers player wants you to do.

So Hillen retaliates, and the ref shrugs it off - "Oh, I must have missed something." Then Hillen retaliates AGAIN. Ref HAS to call it. Rangers won this exchange.

To me, that's a legit playoff hockey play, which you do precisely to draw a penalty. Hillen totally fell for it.

So why did the penalties go 5-0 in the Rangers favor in game 6? I posit that part of the Rangers' game plan was to leverage the typical home ice advantage you get from the refs and bait the Caps into as many penalties as possible. Since they were deliberately waiting until the refs' backs were turned, OF COURSE there were no penalties called. They are also a disciplined team that showed during the regular season that they are capable of playing without committing penalties. The Caps are not -- they committed a few penalties they shouldn't, and also got baited into a few extra penalties as well.

The Caps fell for the Rangers' provocative tactics hook, line, and sinker. Taking a loud dive after a provocative, refs-backs-turned chicken wing isn't embellishment. It's how you show your opponent that they are not getting into your head. The Caps did the opposite, coming apart at the seams in game 7 and whining afterwards about the biased officiating.

In playoff hockey (as in life), there are predators and prey, and the Rangers were the predators in this series. Now I'm not sure this is entirely true, but I strongly suspect that the biased penalty outcome of the series was not the Refs' fault, but rather a result of a successful tactic employed by the Rangers to take advantage of the Caps' mental weakness.

From that perspective, Ovechkin's whining about the officiating is particularly worrisome to me. Instead of viewing the officials as part of the game that you can take advantage of (by, say, waiting for their backs to be turned before swinging a bow at someone), he views them as a harsh reality imposed on him by meanies, something he has no control over. It's not true at all -- you actually get to choose how you respond to a sneaky elbow. You can choose to cry and whimper (or the male equivalent, taking a retaliatory cross-checking penalty) or you can take a dive with a sly smile.

The refs truly don't care about fairness. Their job is to call what they see, not to call a "fair" game. They know that shenanigans occur behind their backs, but they just don't care. It's not their job to see everything, only to call what they see. And you can't fault them for calling a penalty when you react stupidly to provocation. Your stupidity is your fault. This is the essence of emotional intelligence -- you actually get to choose how you react. An emotion is the body's response to a thought, and you get to choose your thoughts. Your angry reaction to an attempted slew foot is not imposed on you from the outside - it's all you. If you think "OMG HE TRIED TO SLEW FOOT ME THAT'S SO UNFAIR" you will get angry and retaliate and get called for a penalty. If instead you think "OMG REF LOOK HOW THIS ATTEMPTED SLEW FOOT HAS ALMOST CRIPPLED ME FOR LIFE" not only will you not get angry but you might actually draw a penalty.

The Caps have shown this mental weakness for several years now, and I think it starts with Ovie and Backstrom and Green. If your team leaders are showing grace under pressure and doing everything they can to win, controlling every variable in their environment to their advantage to the greatest extent possible, that will spread to the rest of the team. If instead you whine and cry at the unfairness of it all...

If Ovechkin was truly a winner, he would say "You know, the Rangers did a good job baiting us into penalties we didn't need to take. That's an aspect of playoff hockey that we haven't mastered yet, and it showed in the outcome of the series." But instead he was a whiner.

I view this as totally fixable. First the Caps need to realize the outcome of this series was not imposed on them by the league or the refs, but by the Rangers, and they need to realize the Rangers' tactics were successful only because the Caps allowed it. They CHOSE to treat the Rangers' sneakiness as unfairness imposed on them from the outside that they have no control over. Wrong! If instead they had simply chosen to accept sneakiness as a legit playoff hockey tactic, the penalty outcome wouldn't have been so lopsided, and probably they would have taken the series easily.

It would probably help for Oates to take the players aside and say, ok, in this situation you do this. Throw up your hands and scream bloody murder. And we, the fans, can help by being forgiving of "embellishing." Embellishing is a sign of mental strength. It's how you communicate to your opponent that sneaky underhanded tactics won't have the intended effect.

Rangers player peeks around and sees no refs looking, swings a chicken wing at Hillen.

So Hillen retaliates, and the ref shrugs it off - "Oh, I must have missed something." Then Hillen retaliates AGAIN. Ref HAS to call it. Rangers won this exchange.

To me, that's a legit playoff hockey play, which you do precisely to draw a penalty. Hillen totally fell for it.

Malamud's Interview with Ovechkin

2013-05-14T20:56:16Z

Here's a link to the article where Ovechkin sounds off about the disparity in penalties between the Rangers and the Caps:

http://hockey.sport-express.ru/reviews/31365/

And here's the original Russian:

– Не скажу, что там был телефонный звонок сверху, но кто-то явно хотел седьмого матча, – прокомментировал Овечкин судейство в шестой игре серии. – Сами понимаете… Как может не быть ни одного удаления у одной команды в серии плей-офф? Это было для рейтингов. Локаут, эскроу, лиге надо зарабатывать… Не знаю, кто был настроен против нас – судьи или лига, но не дать явные удаления у них, а нам свистеть каждую мелочь…

Malamud's translation:

"Not saying there was a phone call, but they wanted Game 7. For ratings. You know, lockout, escrow, league must make profit"

My translation:

"Not saying there was a telephone call from above, but somebody obviously wanted a Game 7. You know... How can there be not one penalty for a team in a playoff series? It was for ratings. Lockout, escrow, the league needs to earn money... I don't know who was working against us -- the refs or the league, but to not call clear penalties on them, and then whistle us for every little thing..."

Here's a link to the article where Ovechkin sounds off about the disparity in penalties between the Rangers and the Caps:

http://hockey.sport-express.ru/reviews/31365/

And here's the original Russian:

Malamud's translation:

"Not saying there was a phone call, but they wanted Game 7. For ratings. You know, lockout, escrow, league must make profit"

My translation:

A Few Questions

2013-05-13T18:34:15Z

Hi, guys. I'm new here to Japers Rink, however not new to SB Nation, as I'm an active member of Bullets Forever.

Anyways, sorry if a FanPost really is supposed to be a place to "bring up new ideas", etc., but I wanted to use this thread to actually ask a few questions that honestly Google hasn't been too helpful with.

Anyways, I've always known the sport of hockey, or the basics of it anyways, and have watched a few games here and there, but for the most part only the Stanley Cup Final. But over the past season, I've slowly fallen in love with the sport of hockey, and I became a Caps fan because that was (a) what's closest to home, (b) I listen to 106.7 the fan on my phone frequently and follow a lot of DC based sports personalities on twitter and know a lot of Caps fans, and (c) I just like the team and how they do things.

But I'm still learning the more advanced aspects of the game, and still have A LOT to learn. Obviously I know what the rules are for the most part, etc. But I have a hard time sometimes with some of the terms that are used and what kinds of offensive and defensive plays are implemented, etc. Google and Youtube have, to some extent been helpful to me, for instance the other day I looked up what a forecheck was on Youtube because the announcers used the term alot, and I learned from there. But it seems as if whenever I try to do this research, every source kind of expects you to know everything else about the game. Which would be fine, if I were from Canada and grew up with the sport like football, or have actually learned to play the game, but I haven't.

So I wanted to used Japers Rink, a place where I have lurked for a little while, for some help with my questions, as actual people listening to my questions would be more helpful to me than a source from google that expects me to know everything. I have just a few questions right now at this moment, but if I have any more, I'll come back to this fanpost and put it in the comments.

What is a slew foot? People have been going crazy about it after the game last night and I have no idea what they're talking about.
What is a corsi? I've seen you guys post the graphs on the recaps, etc., but they're incredibly confusing to understand.
What is the difference between a slap shot, snap shot, wristshot, etc.?
Is there an actual point to the two blue lines from a rules standpoint other than just to identify it as the "neutral zone", and what is the point of the blue paint in front of the net?
Why is it that some icings they decide to not call, or "wash out"?
What are the differences in the forechecks? I've learned what a forecheck is, but I'm not sure what a 1-2-2 or 1-2-1, etc.
Could someone explain some of the different types of offensive styles/plays that teams run? I've picked up that some teams just play differently but I have a hard time kind of understanding how the play differently, and what roles certain players have in that offense, etc.

Sorry if this is way too much to ask. I'm just trying to learn as much as I can about the game. I thoroughly enjoy the game and love the Caps, but am still learning....

Thank you guys so much!

Hi, guys. I'm new here to Japers Rink, however not new to SB Nation, as I'm an active member of Bullets Forever.

What is a slew foot? People have been going crazy about it after the game last night and I have no idea what they're talking about.
What is a corsi? I've seen you guys post the graphs on the recaps, etc., but they're incredibly confusing to understand.
What is the difference between a slap shot, snap shot, wristshot, etc.?
Is there an actual point to the two blue lines from a rules standpoint other than just to identify it as the "neutral zone", and what is the point of the blue paint in front of the net?
Why is it that some icings they decide to not call, or "wash out"?
What are the differences in the forechecks? I've learned what a forecheck is, but I'm not sure what a 1-2-2 or 1-2-1, etc.
Could someone explain some of the different types of offensive styles/plays that teams run? I've picked up that some teams just play differently but I have a hard time kind of understanding how the play differently, and what roles certain players have in that offense, etc.

Sorry if this is way too much to ask. I'm just trying to learn as much as I can about the game. I thoroughly enjoy the game and love the Caps, but am still learning....

Thank you guys so much!

Did Ovechkin's performance suffer at MSG from Line Matching?

2013-05-10T18:32:39Z

n the hope of answering this question, I spent some time analyzing Corsi data along with Time on Ice data. I have generated the following plots which show how Ovechkin performed throughout each game.

How to Read the Plots

The red line on each plot represents Ovechkin's Cumulative Corsi rating (at all strengths) throughout each game. The green line (currently only seen on the larger version of each plot) is his Cumulative Fenwick rating. Each thin vertical black line represents the ending of a shift and the start of the next shift. Thicker vertical black lines represent period intermissions. Red shaded areas are times during which the Capitals were on the power play. Blue shaded areas are times during which the Capitals were on the penalty kill. The horizontal lines in the background represent when each of the New York Rangers were on the ice at the same time as Ovechkin.

Here is Game #1:

for a full size version click here

Here is Game #2:

full size version - click here

Here is Game #3:

full size version - click here

Here is Game #4:

full size version click here

If nothing else, these plots show just how much the Rangers respect Ovechkin and his linemates. There isn't any doubt that the Rangers top two defensemen are Girardi and McDonagh. We see that the Rangers have paired the two of them up to exclusively work on stopping the top line of the Capitals. The following table breaks down the playing time spent by that pair against Ovechkin AND it shows how much the two are on the ice together.

Game	% Ovechkin faces Girardi	% Ovechkin faces McDonagh	% McDonagh and Girardi on ice together at Even Strength
1	76.7	68.6	87.0
2	61.3	69.3	75.9
3	72.0	73.5	85.2
4	81.1	79.1	80.9

This is a significant departure from the stats the pair compiled during the regular season as Rob Parker mentioned in this pre-playoff analysis where they generally only spent 25% of their ice time together. We can surmise that by keeping these two occupied, the ice should be more open for other lines. It also shows that there was a 5% bump in line matching in game #4 (which amounts to approximately 1 to 1 1/2 minutes or, another way to put it, 1 or 2 more shifts).

If the Caps wish to see Ovechkin make his mark tonight, it appears getting him on the ice for as many shifts without Girardi and McDonagh may be an answer.

[ I more than welcome other analysis and critiques on the plots above. I have a few more ideas on how the plots can be improved but would like to hear what others might suggest ]

n the hope of answering this question, I spent some time analyzing Corsi data along with Time on Ice data. I have generated the following plots which show how Ovechkin performed throughout each game.

How to Read the Plots

Here is Game #1:

for a full size version click here

Here is Game #2:

full size version - click here

Here is Game #3:

full size version - click here

Here is Game #4:

full size version click here

Game	% Ovechkin faces Girardi	% Ovechkin faces McDonagh	% McDonagh and Girardi on ice together at Even Strength
1	76.7	68.6	87.0
2	61.3	69.3	75.9
3	72.0	73.5	85.2
4	81.1	79.1	80.9

If the Caps wish to see Ovechkin make his mark tonight, it appears getting him on the ice for as many shifts without Girardi and McDonagh may be an answer.

[ I more than welcome other analysis and critiques on the plots above. I have a few more ideas on how the plots can be improved but would like to hear what others might suggest ]

Can Someone Explain Coincidental/Multiple Penalties Fully to Me?

2013-05-08T15:48:57Z

I have been working on extracting team skater strength numbers (5v5, 5v4, 5v3, etc) from NHL statistics online. The only benefit of the MTL vs OTT playoff game the other night gave was to give me a perfect test case for the algorithm to extract such information from the NHL stats pages.

However, when I ran my algorithm, I found significant discrepancies with what actually happened (and, I think, I have discovered the NHL stats pages are contradictory).

What I am hoping for with this FanPost, is for someone more enlightened than myself to help explain the power play situations that occurred in the 3rd period of the game in question.

The NHL game summary sheet shows all of the penalties and can be seen here.

Nothing is unusual in the first two periods and even the mess at 7:04 is simplified into a single minor against WHITE (as shown below) that is cancelled 4 seconds later when OTT scores on the power play.

MTL Player	PIM	Penalty	OTT Player	PIM	Penalty
WHITE	5	Fighting	COWEN	5	Fighting
MOEN	5	Fighting	NEIL	5	Fighting
BOUILLON	5	Fighting	SMITH	5	Fighting
TINORDI	5	Fighting	PHILLIPS	5	Fighting
ARMSTRONG	5	Fighting	KASSIAN	5	Fighting
WHITE	2	Slashing	-	-	-

The next incident occurs at 8:31. Once again, ignoring the misconduct penalties, we have the following penalty cancellations:

MTL Player	PIM	Penalty	OTT Player	PIM	Penalty
SUBBAN	5	Fighting	TURRIS	5	Fighting
SUBBAN	2	Instigator	-	-	-
SUBBAN	2	Instigator - Face shield	-	-	-
BORQUE	2	Elbowing	CONACHER	2	Roughing
GORGES	2	Charging	-	-	-

At this point, MTL has three new minor penalties (one of which is essentially a double minor to SUBBAN). Therefore, OTT should go on a 5v3 for 2 minutes followed by a 5v4 for another 2 minutes. What really confuses things, though, is MTL has yet another penalty just 12 seconds later (8:43 PRUST 2 for Roughing) while on the PK. NHL Rule 27.1 states

Delayed Penalty - If a third player of any team shall be penalized while two players of the same team are serving penalties, the penalty time of the third player shall not commence until the penalty time of one of the two players already penalized has elapsed. Nevertheless, the third player penalized must at once proceed to the penalty bench but may be replaced by a substitute until such time as the penalty time of the penalized player shall commence.

I interpret this to mean that PRUST's penalty time will not start until a goal is scored or at time 10:31 when both SUBBAN's first minor and GORGES minor have expired. The play-by-play then indicates that OTT has a 5v3 until 10:31 when, of all things, coincidental minor penalties are given out to PAGEAU and PLEKANEC for cross-checking.

At this point, I would have expected the coincidental minors to not go on the clock because they are coincidental while other penalties are occurring (which is apparently what happened). BUT, I would have expected SUBBAN's second minor AND PRUST's minor to start at 10:31 which would have given OTT another 2 minutes of 5v3. Instead, OTT had a 5v4 for the next two minutes?!?!

Can someone please explain this to me? It sure looks like SUBBAN's second minor or PRUST's penalty never resulted in a power play opportunity for Ottawa.

However, when I ran my algorithm, I found significant discrepancies with what actually happened (and, I think, I have discovered the NHL stats pages are contradictory).

What I am hoping for with this FanPost, is for someone more enlightened than myself to help explain the power play situations that occurred in the 3rd period of the game in question.

The NHL game summary sheet shows all of the penalties and can be seen here.

MTL Player	PIM	Penalty	OTT Player	PIM	Penalty
WHITE	5	Fighting	COWEN	5	Fighting
MOEN	5	Fighting	NEIL	5	Fighting
BOUILLON	5	Fighting	SMITH	5	Fighting
TINORDI	5	Fighting	PHILLIPS	5	Fighting
ARMSTRONG	5	Fighting	KASSIAN	5	Fighting
WHITE	2	Slashing	-	-	-

The next incident occurs at 8:31. Once again, ignoring the misconduct penalties, we have the following penalty cancellations:

MTL Player	PIM	Penalty	OTT Player	PIM	Penalty
SUBBAN	5	Fighting	TURRIS	5	Fighting
SUBBAN	2	Instigator	-	-	-
SUBBAN	2	Instigator - Face shield	-	-	-
BORQUE	2	Elbowing	CONACHER	2	Roughing
GORGES	2	Charging	-	-	-

Delayed Penalty - If a third player of any team shall be penalized while two players of the same team are serving penalties, the penalty time of the third player shall not commence until the penalty time of one of the two players already penalized has elapsed. Nevertheless, the third player penalized must at once proceed to the penalty bench but may be replaced by a substitute until such time as the penalty time of the penalized player shall commence.

Can someone please explain this to me? It sure looks like SUBBAN's second minor or PRUST's penalty never resulted in a power play opportunity for Ottawa.

2012-2013 Season Predictions in Review

2013-04-30T02:48:42Z

Each year, I like to put my predictions for the upcoming season (and eventually the postseason. . . teaser!) in a FanPost to start a discussion about the upcoming year. This year, I figured I'd dissect my own predictions to see where I got things right, and where I got things terribly, terribly wrong.

Western Conference

Usually, my analysis of the Western Conference is a bit better that that of the Eastern Conference, because it's less clouded by emotion. Sure, I'm a huge Avs fan, but I've long since accepted that the Avs are going to be pretty bad so long as they're playing second fiddle to the Nuggets in the Kroenke empire.

Overall, I think I did pretty well with the west. I overestimated Phoenix, Nashville, and to a lesser extent, Colorado and Minnesota. I underestimated Anaheim, and seriously shortchanged Columbus.

Central Division

I did my best work on the Central, only transposing the Predators and the Blue Jackets in the final standings, and honestly, who foresaw the BJs competing for the playoffs?

1. Chicago Blackhawks:
What I got right:

Chicago could put the puck in the net last year, they just couldn't keep it out very well, and that was mostly down to the mediocre goaltending provided by Corey Crawford and his backup Ray Emery. If Crawford can give the Hawks merely league-average goaltending or better, they should win the division.

What I got wrong:

If Crawford falters, I could easily see the Hawks making a deal to upgrade their goaltending prior to the playoffs.

Ultimately, Crawford and Emery gave the Hawks the kind of goaltending that Halak and Elliott gave St. Louis last year, en route to a President's Trophy. So far, so good.

2. St. Louis Blues:

What I got right:

The Blues' transformation under Ken Hitchcock was one of the great stories of 2011-2012. The Blues were a team loaded with untapped potential that Hitch's coaching savvy and attention to detail helped to blossom. Or so the story goes. While there's a degree of truth to that story, I doubt Hitchcock was directly responsible for turning Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak into the second coming(s) of Dominik Hasek. Simply put - there's no chance that the Blues get save percentages of .926 (Halak) and .940 (Elliot) out of their journeymen goaltending duo again. So, while the Blues will likely make the playoffs again, they won't be in contention for the President's Trophy.

What I got wrong:

I pretty much nailed this one.

3. Detroit Red Wings:

What I got right:

So begins year zero, AL (after Lidstrom). The Wings still have enough talent up and down the roster to make the playoffs, butBrendan Smith, Carlo Colaiacovo and Kyle Quincey are not going to make up for the loss of Nicklas Lidstrom.

What I got wrong:

Again, not much.

4. Nashville Predators:

What I got right:

The likely regression on defense and the continued lack of a game-breaking talent up front will leave them struggling to make the playoffs from a tough division.

What I got wrong:

I had this pretty spot-on, but I didn't foresee. . .

5. Columbus Blue Jackets:

What I got right:

At least the Nash trade will at least assure that half of the Blue Jackets' roster isn't filled out by AHL players...

The depth brought back by the Nash trade, along with Sergei Bobrovsky playing like . . . well, Steve Mason in 2008-2009, went a long way toward making the BJs more than a doormat.

The continued employment of Scott Howson is a minor miracle.

Howson was fired mid-season.

What I got wrong:

To paraphrase Dave Chappelle, "What can I say about Columbus that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?"

The Blue Jackets fought valiantly and almost secured a playoff berth. When Boborovsky regresses next year, they may struggle a bit, but they finally have some depth on their roster, and the young players like Johansen finally got a taste of winning.

Northwest Division

I did pretty well with the Northwest (or should I say "Northworst"). I got most of the substance correct, despite transposing the finish of the bottom-two.

1. Vancouver Canucks:

What I got right:

The Canucks are a somewhat obvious choice, but still they are still the best team in the division. Injuries to Ryan Kesler andDavid Booth will hurt their secondary scoring to start the season.

The secondary scoring did suffer without Kesler and Booth.

What I got wrong:

Vancouver had trade chips in Roberto Luongo and Keith Ballard that could shore up their scoring and defensive depth should those injuries linger

Vancouver did trade to shore up their secondary scoring--acquiring Derek Roy at the deadline-- but they never moved Luongo or Ballard.

2. Minnesota Wild:

What I got right:

With a solid corps of goaltenders, a healthy Mikko Koivu, a cupboard stocked with prospects, and a defense with Ryan Suter as its anchor, the Wild are poised for a big season. Having Zach Parise, Dany Heatley, and Devon Setoguchi as their top-three wings will give the Wild the best scoring punch in their history.

What I got wrong:

A healthy Pierre-Marc Bouchard(as much a contradiction in terms as "healthy Rick DiPietro"?) should add to the Wild's firepower.

Bouchard stayed healthy, but he didn't play a major role in the Wild's success. The Wild also struggled to make the playoffs a bit more than I expected.

3. Edmonton Oilers:

What I got right:

I believe the Oilers will take third in the Northwest on the strength of their scoring - provided both Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can stay healthy and Nail Yakupov can score the way he's capable of. Justin Schultz will bolster the Oilers' blue line, but talk of a Calder Trophy based on his play in the AHL may be a bit premature.

The Oilers did score enough to capture third, but they didn't score enough to make the playoffs, or to overcome their porous defense. Schultz was decent, but certainly not Calder-worthy.

What I got wrong:

More likely, however, is that the Oilers fall just short and ship out some of their older players (Horcoff) at the deadline.

While not totally wrong, the Oilers didn't ship out their veterans at the deadline (even though they probably should have).

4. Colorado Avalanche:

What I got right:

Erik Johnson hasn't worked out as the "franchise" defenseman that the Avs thought they were getting, and it's unlikely that, in hindsight, the Avs would trade Kevin Shattenkirk for Johnson straight-up. This year, the Avs are shooting themselves in the foot by low-balling Ryan O'Reilly, their leading scorer from last year and an absolute stud of a two-way centerman. If Matt Duchene can suddenly remember how to play hockey and return to being a top-two center, the loss of O'Reilly might not sting as badly. Gabriel Landeskog is a beast, and the addition of P.A. Parenteau will add some scoring depth, but the Avs desperately need Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene, and Johnson to play up to their potential if they're going to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

Duchene remembered how to play hockey, and Parenteau held up his end of the bargain, but Landeskog got hurt and regressed without O'Reilly.

What I got wrong:

Additionally, the Avs will need Semyon Varlamov to stay healthy - something at which he's not been particularly fortunate in the past.

Varly stayed healthy--he just wasn't very good, especially on the road. While I thought the Avs would be bad, I didn't expect them to be 29th-place bad.

5. Calgary Flames:

What I got right:

The Flames' big offseason signings were Dennis Wideman and Jiri Hudler. . . which prompts the question: "why does Jay Feaster hate Jarome Iginla?" If ever there were a team in need of a full tear-down and rebuild, the Flames would be it. Their two best players (Iggy and Miikka Kiprussoff) are well past their primes, and while young players like Sven Bartschi could add some scoring, the team lacks the kind of young stars that Oilers have aplenty. This might be the season that Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester finally get traded. One would hope so, at least for their sakes.

Nailed it.

What I got wrong:

...young players like Sven Bartschi could add some scoring

Bartschi really didn't do much in the NHL this year, but the Flames managed to not finish in the basement.

Pacific Division

I did alright with the Pacific, but it was harder to predict than the other divisions in the Western Conference. Much like the Atlantic in the East, there are a lot of strong teams, and even the weaker teams could have competed for the playoffs had they received a few kind bounces. In the end, I think I did pretty well. I whiffed hard on Anaheim, but after that, the order was correct.

1. Los Angeles Kings:

What I got right:

It looks as though Kopitar should miss minimal time to start the season... The lockout could be a serious blessing for the Kings, given the long grind of the playoffs and Jonathan Quick's offseason back surgery. The team could use a bit more depth on defense

The Kings did benefit from the lockout, as it allowed Kopitar and Quick to be ready for the season. The Kings did need more depth on defense, bringing in Keaton Ellerby early in the season and trading for Robyn Regehr at the deadline.

What I got wrong:

This is another extremely tough call - LA, Phoenix, and San Jose all have a legitimate shot at winning the Pacific and I went back and forth between LA and SJS, but ultimately I landed on the Kings because of the relative injury situations of the two teams... ...this may finally be the year that they decide to trade Jonathan Bernier, since he's a restricted free agent at the end of the year and the Kings are clearly committed to Quick.

LA clearly didn't win the division, and neither did Phoenix or San Jose. The Kings never traded Bernier, and it was a good thing, as Quick hasn't looked like the guy who dominated the playoffs last year. I also didn't foresee how much Quick would struggle to start the season - although his dominating performance in April suggests that maybe he just needed a few more months to recover.

2. San Jose Sharks:

What I got right:

The Sharks have some injury concerns on defense (with Burns, Demers, and Braun all questionable or out to start the season), but their depth and experience at center, combined with excellent coaching (now with 100% more Larry Robinson!) should put them into the playoffs. If Burns can get healthy quickly and the Sharks can get some scoring outside of their top-six, they could contend for the division. More likely, however, they'll end up at the upper end of the non-divisional winners.

Everything I said was more or less true.

What I got wrong:

I whiffed on how much turmoil would be required between points A and B. By the time the Sharks shipped out Douglas Murray and Ryane Clowe, neither was part of their "core" any longer, but it's still a pretty major shift in the franchise. Burns struggled with injuries, and when he returned, it was as a forward.

3. Phoenix Coyotes:

What I got right:

...it's unlikely that Mike Smithrepeats what was, in all probability, a career year in 2011-2012. The departure of Ray Whitney is going to hurt...

Smith didn't repeat his performance, and the Coyotes missed Whitney's scoring.

What I got wrong:

...but having Antoine Vermettefor a full season, along with the additions of Matt Lombardi and Steve Sullivan (if healthy) should keep the Coyotes in contention for a playoff spot.

Vermette, Lombardi, and Sullivan didn't help them contend, and Sullivan and Lombardi were dealt at the deadline. I didn't think Phoenix would win their division (obviously), but I certainly thought they'd be in the mix for a playoff spot. They contended for a while, but they were done (for all intents and purposes) by the deadline.

4. Anaheim Ducks:

What I got right:

The Ducks are an odd. . . duck. Are they the team that flamed out spectacularly early in the season, leading to the firing of Randy Carlyle and the hiring of Bruce Boudreau? Or are they the team that mounted a late-season charge before falling well short of a playoff spot? I think they're far more likely the latter rather than the former. To wit: Corey Perry,Ryan Getzlaf, and Jonas Hiller all endured "down" years in 2011-2012. All three should bounce back, and they'd better, because the Ducks are awfully thin on scoring depth...

I was right--the Ducks were more like the team that played well under Boudreau down the stretch. But they were also somewhat "lucky," sporting a team-wide shooting percentage of 10% (7th overall), and a team-wide save percentage of 91.4%, bolstered in large part by the breakout performance of the "rookie" Viktor Fasth.

...something about Souray and Cam Fowlerpotentially playing on the points together fairly screams "shorthanded goal."

The Ducks surrendered 5 shorthanded goals-against, which tied them for third-most in the league, and Fowler and Souray were both on the ice for two of them.

What I got wrong:

The Ducks could really benefit from Kyle Palmieri or Andrew Cogliano stepping up and seizing a second-line scoring role, which would allow Daniel Winnik to take his wheels and stone hands to the third line where he belongs.

Palmieri and Cogliano both improved their scoring this year, but Winnik remained a "second-line" player (at least in terms of even strength time on ice and his line mates).

On defense, Sheldon Sourayshould provide some help to the power play...

Souray may have helped bit with 5 points on the power play, but not nearly as much as the emergence of Francois Beauchemin as a #1 defenseman and power-play threat with 8 points.

Most of all, I erred in not giving more credit to Boudreau, and the ageless wonder that is Teemu Selanne. I thought the Ducks would have trouble scoring after the "big three" of Getzlaf, Perry, and Bobby Ryan, but their second and third-line forwards really stepped up, Beauchemin was a beast, and Fasth was excellent. That (plus some bad goaltending and a lack of scoring from the Kings) was enough to propel Anaheim to the division crown.

5. Dallas Stars:

What I got right:

It's almost as though the Stars can't figure out which way they'd like to go. Trading away Steve Ott, Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Grossman, and Marc Fistric while letting Sheldon Souray leave as a free agent would seemingly suggest that the Stars were looking to rebuild around a young core of Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, Kari Lehtonen, and Alex Goligoski. Then they sign aging free agents like Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney while neglecting to get Jamie Benn (a restricted free agent) under contract before the start of the season. It's enough to leave on scratching one's head. Derek Roy will give the Stars more two-way play than Ribeiro provided out of the #2C slot, and hopefully for the Stars, Cody Eakin can take over the #3C slot. Still, their defense will be an adventure. If Jagr and Whitney can replicate their 2011-2012 performances, the Stars could eke into the playoffs. Somewhere between the 10th and 13th seed is far more likely, however.

Pretty much nailed this one. It seems that the Stars' ownership agreed with my assertion that the Stars' roster was a discombobulated mess of old veterans and younger players, as they relieved Joe Nieuwendyk of his responsibilities as general manager (probably about four years too late).

What I got wrong:

Derek Roy will give the Stars more two-way play than Ribeiro provided out of the #2C slot,

While not technically incorrect, I thought Roy would produce a bit more offensively, and I was mildly surprised that he was shipped out, along with Jagr and longtime captain Brenden Morrow. I sure didn't see that coming.

Eastern Conference

I usually find it more difficult to achieve analytical detachment with the Eastern Conference, because I'm so invested in the Caps, and because I see the teams so often that it can be hard to alter or challenge my own preconceptions. Even with that caveat, I think I did a decent job of predicting the outcomes of both the divisions and the conference as a whole.

I overestimated the Rangers, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Carolina, Tampa, and to a lesser extent Florida. I underestimated Pittsburgh, the Islanders, Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg.

Atlantic Division

If I'd had the courage to listen to my convictions (namely that the Flyers would suck and the Isles would make the playoffs), I would have done pretty well with the Atlantic. Alas. . . I was heavily influenced by my ingrained opinion of both the Flyers and Islanders organizations.

1. New York Rangers:

What I got right:

Getting a full season out ofMarc Staal and Anton Stralman will help the Rangers' defense, but if there's a weak point on their team, the pairing of Michael Del Zotto andStu Bickel is it. Look for the Rangers to shore up their defensive depth at some point in the season.

Staal's eye injury didn't help, but the Rangers' defense and goaltending was pretty stout all season. Del Zotto improved, and the Rags did shore up their defense, claiming Roman Hamrlik off waivers and trading for John Moore at the deadline.

What I got wrong:

Per usual, the Rangers made a big offseason splash, acquiring Rick Nash from the Blue Jackets in return for Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Tim Erixon, and a first-round pick. Such is the depth of the Rangers that the losses of Dubinsky, Anisimov, and Erixon will hardly be felt. Still the move puts pressure on young players such asDerek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, and Chris Kreider...Barring serious injuries (not inconsiderable, given the histories of Marc Staal, Marian Gaborik, and Ryan Callahan), the Rangers should be considered favorites to prevail as the regular season Eastern Conference champions.

It turns out that the Rangers really did miss that depth (much more than Columbus missed Rick Nash, oddly enough). Stepan stepped up and Hagelin performed pretty well. But Nash was disappointing to start the season, Gaborik and Brad Richards could never get started, Callahan got injured (again), and Kreider lasted all of five minutes before Tortorella lost faith in him and banished him to Connecticut. Accordingly, the Rangers' power play was atrocious. Key depth contributors from last season like Brian Boyle, Ruslan Fedotenko, Brandon Prust, and John Mitchell were all missed. Instead of challenging for the President's Trophy, the Rangers barely made the playoffs.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins:

What I got right:

The combination of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin down the middle is still the best 1-2 center punch in the league. Provided that both players can stay healthy of course.

Not really going out on a limb here. They are the best 1-2 center punch in the league, but they'll probably never both make it through an 82-game season unscathed. Not that it really matters.

The Pens likewise lack depth on defense. Kris Letang (when healthy) is an elite puck-moving defenseman, but Paul Martin has never quite performed as advertised and the departure of Zbynek Michalek leaves the Pens' defensive corps a little thin. The Pens are stocked with defensive prospects, but most of them are two to three years away from the NHL. In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should bounce back from a sub-par year and an atrocious postseason. If he doesn't, Tomas Vokoun is a more than capable backup.

Martin had a (dead cat) bounce-back year, and Letang was his typical self (amazing when he plays, but oft-injured), but the Pens' defense was indeed thin. They tried to thicken it up by bringing in the hefty Douglas Murray, but he's hardly a difference-maker at this point. If the Pens have a weakness, it's their defense. The goaltending duo of Fleury and Vokoun was very good, as expected.

What I got wrong:

The Pens could push the Rangers for the division crown, but in all likelihood they'll have to "settle" for being either the four or five seed in the east. Brandon Sutter has the makings of a good, or possibly even a great 3C, but he lacks the offensive ability to be more than a band-aid should Malkin or Crosby see significant time in the press box. The Pens are built down the center, but they received strong play from James Neal and Chris Kunitz last year. After those two, however, there's a significant drop in scoring ability.

Obviously, the Pens didn't have to "settle" for the 4/5 seed. Despite being a team built around two exceptional centers, once Crosby and Malkin went down to their annual serious injury, the Pens' wingers carried the team. Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis had exceptional seasons, and the acquisitions of Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow made the Penguins' forward depth even more formidable. Sutter was just as I expected--an excellent defensive 3C with little offensive upside. No matter, Jussi Jokinen filled in well as a scoring center.

3. Philadelphia Flyers:

What I got right and wrong:

Here's my bold prediction: the Flyers will struggle to make the playoffs. It feels odd to type, and I'm sure that I'll catch some flak for it, but nevertheless, I think it's probable. The Flyers lost too much talent in the offseason and got career years out of too many players (Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds, and Matt Read) last year. If Ilya Bryzgalov regains his form, or the Flyers can trade for a proper goaltender, perhaps they can claw their way to a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed, but in all likelihood, this is a "regrouping" year in Philadelphia. Brayden and Luke Schenn have been underwhelming thus far in their professional careers, and the Flyers are banking that Brayden can replace Jagr and/or James van Riemsdyk, while Luke offsets the loss of Chris Pronger and Matt Carle. Claude Giroux is still one of the best players in hockey, and Peter Laviolette is a hell of a coach, but the Flyers' lack of depth on defense and the losses up front (don't forget the injury to Daniel Briere) will be difficult to overcome.

I'm kicking myself so. . so hard for this prediction. I had everything right. The Flyers lacked their typical forward depth. They were putting a lot of stock in guys like Hartnell repeating career years (without the help of Jaromir Jagr). They were depending on Bryzgalov. They were putting way too much faith in the (vastly overrated) Schenn brothers. . .

I had everything right. . . except their final position in the standings. I wrote a first draft of these predictions that had Philly missing the playoffs and coming in behind the Islanders in their own division. Then I chickened out. That little voice in my head said, "c'mon. . . these are the Flyers and the Islanders we're talking about. Quit trying to be clever. You're going to look like an idiot." So, like a coward, I put the Flyers ahead of the Isles, even though a quick glance at their respective rosters showed that the Flyers were probably in for a rough year and the Isles were surprisingly deep.

4. New York Islanders:

What I got right:

Here's another "bold" prediction: the Islanders won't finish in the Atlantic basement. At some point, the Islanders' wealth of talent should result in a playoff berth. That's unlikely in 2013, but they should be closer than in years past. With John Tavares, Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo,Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner, and Brad Boyes up front, the Isles should be able to put the puck in the net. Mark Streit and (presumably at some point) Lubomir Visnovsky give the Isles two excellent power-play quarterbacks. Evgeni Nabokov should solidify the goaltending position. The Isles will lack depth on defense, particularly if Visnovsky remains AWOL and Hamonic can't stay healthy.

Looking back, I can feel the cognitive dissonance in my writing. I want to say that the Isles will make the playoffs. . . but these are the f*$%ing Islanders. The team of Charles Wang and Garth Snow and Mike Milbury and decades of managerial incompetence. (Remember what I said about emotion clouding my analysis?) I had the strengths (and weaknesses) of the team spot-on. They have great forward depth, with a strong top line and guys who can skate and work their ass off all the way through the roster. I don't think I expected Boyes to have quite so good a season though. The Isles' defense is still a little shaky, even with Visnovsky in the fold and the addition of Thomas Hickey.

What I got wrong:

Should one of those guys falter, the Islanders have Nino Niederreiter tearing it up in Bridgeport.

El Niño never saw the ice on Long Island. I suppose he wasn't necessary, although it does seem odd that the Isles burned a year of his entry-level contract to have him ride the pine last year, only to banish him to Bridgeport this whole season. (Remember that whole "managerial incompetence" thing?)

Ultimately, I should have stuck to my guns and put the Isles in the playoffs.

5. New Jersey Devils:

What I got right:

Wait. . . what? Weren't the Devils just in the Stanley Cup Finals? Yes, but the team is without Zach Parise and, to start the season, Adam Henrique. Sure, Travis Zajac is healthy and Ilya Kovalchukdecided to come back from Mother Russia, but this is still a team riddled with holes. Martin Brodeur will likely benefit from the time off he received during the lockout (provided he can still fit into his pads), but that won't be enough to keep the Devils competitive in an absolutely brutal division.

All of this is more-or-less accurate.

What I got wrong:

Martin Brodeur will likely benefit from the time off he received during the lockout (provided he can still fit into his pads)

Marty got injured, so perhaps the time off didn't help as much as I'd thought. As bad as the Devils were this year, things might have turned out differently with a healthy Brodeur and a healthy Kovalchuk. The team did put up a strong Fenwick Close (meaning that when the game was close, the Devils directed more shots at their opponents' net than their opponent directed at theirs), which is generally the sign of a well-coached club.

Northeast Division

1. Boston Bruins:

What I got right:

With Nathan Horton back and healthy, the Bruins will boast a strong top-six with Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic, Tyler Seguin,David Krejci, and Brad Marchand. Depth players like Rich Peverley andChris Kelly bring some scoring to the bottom lines and are capable of filling in on the top-two lines should injuries strike. In contrast to their forward lines, the B's lack depth at defense. Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg will again be a solid shutdown pairing, but the quality drops off quickly thereafter. Johnny Boychuk and Andrew Ference are out of their depth as a second pairing. The B's had better hope that Dougie Hamilton is ready for the NHL. So long as Chara and Tuukka Rask stay healthy, the B's should have a top-three seed locked up.

The Bs boasted strong offensive depth, but they lacked any "standout" performance by their skill players, as evidenced by the fact that no Bruin was close to scoring at a point-per-game rate, and Brad Marchand led the team in scoring. The Bruins' defensive depth was poor on paper, but Ference and Boychuk acquitted themselves well on the ice, Hamilton was (mostly) ready for the NHL, and the acquisition of Wade Redden added some skill and experience.

What I got wrong:

The Northeast Division, much like the Northwest, is one strong team and a whole bunch of "meh." The Bruins will again ice a Cup-contending team, but they'll really benefit from just how weak the rest of their division is.

This assessment of the Northeast (and its obverse - my rosy assessment of the Southeast) was perhaps the biggest fault in my whole prediction. I thought the Northeast would be an also-ran division dominated by the Bs. How wrong I was. . .

2. Buffalo Sabres:

What I got right:

I suppose somebody has to come in second in the Northeast. . . so why not the Sabres? I'll tell you why not: Cody Hodgson,Tyler Ennis, Steve Ott, and Jochen Hecht. Those are the Sabres' centers for 2013. It's possible that Mikhail Grigorenko sticks with the team, in which case their center depth won't be a total joke, but still.

Grigorenko didn't stick, and their center depth was atrocious. Honestly, every part of their team was atrocious, but the rot started at the center position.

What I got wrong:

I suppose somebody has to come in second in the Northeast. . . so why not the Sabres? ... The defense, on the other hand, is ludicrously deep, and the Sabres could easily turn one of their nine NHL defensemen into additional forward depth. Ultimately, I think a strong year from Ryan Miller and Tyler Myers is enough to carry the Sabres to second in the Northwest, but making the playoffs could be tight.

Uff da. Wow. Where to begin. First, I made no mention whatsoever of Thomas Vanek. I don't think there's a more "quiet" superstar in the NHL. It's not like he's a Mikko Koivu-type who is mostly known for strong two-way play. He's an offensive stud and I totally forgot about him.

Moving on to the defense. In my . . . defense. . . the Sabres' defense looked good on paper. Myers, Ehrhoff, Regehr, Leopold, Sekera, Weber, Pysyk, Sulzer, Pardy. The problem was that the foundation for the whole edifice is Myers being a strong, minute-eating #1 defenseman. He wasn't, and the whole thing fell apart. In fairness, the entire team fell apart, but the defense was abysmal.

2. Montreal Canadiens:

What I got right:

The Canadiens have a couple solid forward lines with Erik Cole, David Deharnais, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec (if healthy), Rene Bourque, and Brian Gionta. If Alex Galchenyuk can stick with the team, the Habs should have decent scoring depth.

Replace Cole with Michael Ryder and this is still pretty much true. The Habs had eight players score ten or more goals, and Galchenyuk potted nine.

What I got wrong:

Again, I suppose someone has to come in third, so why not the Habs? Well, their top-two defensemen are P.K. Subban andAndrei Markov, one of whom is unsigned and the other has played only a handful of games in the last two years. With Subban out, the Habs are relying on Markov to stay healthy and play alongside the steady (and underrated) Josh Gorges. After that, the Habs are rolling out Alexei Emelin, Raphael Diaz, Yannick Weber, Francis Bouillon, and Tomas Kaberle. Carey Price had better be ready to see a lot of pucks.

The Habs are a case study in how coaching and systems can impact a team, and how that's reflected in their possession statistics. Montreal went from being one of the worst Fenwick Close teams in the league to being one of the best. Markov's return and Subban's emergence as a possession beast surely helped, but Michel Therrien brought some Fenwick voodoo, because the Habs suddenly started throwing a lot more rubber toward their opponent. As a result, Price didn't need to be outstanding every night, and the Habs--despite a late-season swoon--won their division and secured the second-overall seed in the Eastern Conference.

3. Ottawa Senators:

What I got right:

Erik Karlsson had a stellar season last year, but I think he's due for significant regression, particularly given that opposing teams will have no excuse not to target him this year.

This was both right and wrong. Karlsson didn't regress when he was healthy, but opponents did target him more often, and as a result he missed most of the season with a partially torn Achilles' tendon. (I happen to think the injury was accidental, but it never would have happened if Cooke hadn't had a bullseye on Karlsson.)

The Sens also benefited from a strong performance by Craig Anderson last year. Anderson will need to be even better this year if the Sens are going to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

Anderson was better, and the Sens made the playoffs. How stupid does Colorado feel for low-balling him a couple years ago? (Probably about as stupid as they feel for the Erik Johnson trade. Or the David Jones contract. Or the Varlamov trade. Or allowing O'Reilly to hold out. Or . . . pretty much anything they've done since the 04-05 lockout.)

What I got wrong:

Chris Phillips and Sergei Gonchar are serviceable, if a bit long in the tooth. After that, the Sens' defense gets uglier than Mike Ricci.

Remember that line from the section above about Michel Therrien's Fenwick voodoo? Well Paul McLean must worship at the same altars. A year after being 50/50 with Karlsson and Spezza in the lineup, this year's Sens were at 52% in Fenwick close with both guys missing significant time. McLean's system did an amazing job of covering for the shortcomings of his roster, and and his defense in particular. He managed to get passable defense out of guys like Eric Gryba and Marc Methot. Chapeau.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs:

What I got right:

the Leafs actually have a halfway-decent top six, with Phil Kessel, Mikhail Grabovski,Joffrey Lupul, James van Riemsdyk, and Nikolai Kulemin. ... and if Nazem Kadri can ever live up to his draft slot, the Leafs might actually have some forward depth. On the defensive side, the Leafs have a decent top-four with Dion Phaneuf, John-Michael Liles,Jake Gardiner, and Carl Gunnarsson. After that, however, comes the ghost of Mike Komisarek, Cody Franson and a bunch of question marks.

The Leafs do have a pretty good top-six group of forwards, and it's made stronger with Kadri finally living up to his potential. Phaneuf, Liles, Gardner, and Gunnarsson seemed like a decent top-four, but then Liles had a terrible year and Gardiner got on the wrong side of Carlyle. Suddenly those question marks (Mike Kostka? Korbinian Holzer?) got a lot of playing time.

What I got wrong:

Jay McClement is a pretty good #3C,

I feel shame. I feel really, really stupid for having written this.

Already lacking center depth, the Leafs took the bold decision to waive Tim Connolly before the season, leaving Tyler Bozak as their presumptive #2 center.

The Leafs never completely resolved their center position, which is probably at least partly responsible for their atrocious Fenwick Close rating. The emergence of Kadri helped a great deal, however, and Kadri-Bozak-Grabovski is far from the worst top-three in the league.

Other than that, Speaking of question marks, the Leafs' goaltending situation is completely up in the air. Right now, James Reimer and Ben Scrivens are between the pipes, but many have presumed that the Leafs would be a primary suitor for Roberto Luongo. Well, that trade has yet to materialize, and the Leafs' duo of AHL-caliber goalies will consign them to the basement of the Northeast.

Reimer was really good, and Scrivens was good for a backup. Inexperience aside, I'm not sure why the Leafs were so anxious to "upgrade" their goaltending with the ambling corpse that currently wears Miikka Kiprusoff's jersey. The long-rumored (well, rumoured) Luongo trade never materialized. Sad Strombone.

Southeast Division

I got number one right, then pretty much everything else wrong. Mid-season, when the Caps were lolling around the cellar, I was pretty sure that I was going to look like an idiot homer for picking them. Instead, I just look like an idiot for picking Carolina and Tampa Bay to make the playoffs.

1. Washington Capitals:

What I got right:

The 2012-2013 edition of the Caps will miss Alexander Semin's goal-scoring, but they'll likely make up for it by spreading the wealth (i.e. power-play time) to Wojtek Wolski, Eric Fehr, Mike Ribeiro, and Mathieu Perreault.

If we can forget about Wolski (Oates certainly did), and add in Troy Brouwer, this is pretty accurate.

Speaking of Ribeiro, the Caps go into the 2012-2013 season with a legitimate second-line center for the first time since 2008-2009. Once Brooks Laich is healthy (and presuming he returns to being the #3C) the Caps will have depth down the middle to match any team in the east.

Laich never returned as a center, but with Backstrom back to his All-Star form, Ribeiro producing at a point-per-game rate (even with his atrocious possession stats), and Perreault doing yeoman work as the #3C, this wasn't too far off.

Provided that the Caps can quickly learn Adam Oates' system, and that Oates' system improves the power play (and with it Alexander Ovechkin's production) the Caps should take one of the top-three seeds in the Eastern Conference.

The Caps didn't learn Oates' system quickly, but once they picked it up, they started winning in bunches. As expected, Oates improved both the power play (#1 in the league) and Ovechkin's power-play production (16 PPG and 27 Power-Play Points).

What I got wrong:

The Caps are similarly deep on defense, although the quality drops off somewhat in the last pairing while Dmitry Orlov is injured. Still, with Mike Green healthy and John Carlson busted out of his sophomore slump, the Caps have two strong puck-movers to go with defensive stalwarts Karl Alzner, Roman Hamrlik and, if he can return to the form he showed prior to 2011-2012, Jeff Schultz. The near-miraculous return of Tom Poti only adds to this depth.

This is up there with the "Jay McClement is a decent #3C" on the Derp-O-Meter. I thought that Green-Hamrlik and Alzner-Carlson would give the Caps a solid top-4, while Orlov, Erskine, Poti, and Hillen filled in the bottom pairing. On paper, that seems pretty deep. Orlov never really recovered from his concussion, Poti is. . . well, Poti, and Hamrlik's rapidly declining speed was an atrocious fit for Oates' pressure defense. Since 2010, Schultz has been more lost than Dr. Livingston, and Oates soured on him quickly. Suddenly, Big John Erskine, Tomas Kundratek and Steven Oleksy were playing big minutes for the Caps. I guess that's depth of a sort, right?

While I whiffed on a couple details, I'd like to think I got the big picture right when it comes to the Caps.

2. Carolina Hurricanes:

What I got right:

Carolina's defense is still a bit shaky. Joni Pitkanen and Tim Gleason are strong defensemen, but on a deeper team, they'd be a second-pair tandem. Carolina has some talented young defenders in Justin Faulk, Jamie McBain, and Bobby Sanguinetti, but the less said about Joe Corvo, the better.

On cue, Carolina's defense was a major weakness. Their defensemen had a hard time staying healthy, to the point where they were forced to trade for Marc-Andre Bergeron (AKA the power-play booby prize).

The addition of Jordan Staal has given the Canes a solid 1-2 punch at center, should coach Kirk Muller decide to split Jordan from his brotherEric Staal, rather than playing Eric on Jordan's wing as some have suggested.

What I got wrong:

I thought the 'Canes would make the playoffs, primarily because I didn't foresee the injuries to both Cam Ward and his backup, Dan Ellis. Had Carolina received league-average, or even replacement-level goaltending (somewhere between .905 and .910), instead of .902, they likely make the playoffs, and I don't feel so foolish.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning:

What I got right:

The Bolts, led by Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, and Teddy Purcell, showed an ability to put the puck in the net. The Lightning hope that the additions of B.J. Crombeen,Benoit Pouliot, and Cory Conacher will increase their scoring depth.

The Lightning could score, ranking #4 overall in the conference in goals-for. Stamkos challenged for the Richard Trophy, and St. Louis earned the Art Ross. Cory Conacher had a breakout performance before being traded to Ottawa.

What I got wrong:

The other end of the ice was, however, another story altogether. The Lightning's defense and goaltending both struggled, surrendering the most goals in the league (281). Lightning GM Steve Yzerman sought to address this problem in the offseason by adding free agents Sami Salo and Matt Carle, and trading for the young Keith Aulie to go along with midseason acquisition Brian Lee. Additionally, Yzerman acquired the enormous Anders Lindbackfrom Nashville. Some have worried about the "loss" of Matthias Ohlund will have a negative impact on the Bolts' defense corps, but given how poorly Ohlund has played the last two seasons, this may be an addition by subtraction. Yzerman has done an impressive job rebuilding his defense and goaltending, and it should be enough to return the Lightning to the playoffs, but not to capture the division.

The Bolts' defense and goaltending didn't improve. Lindback wasn't the answer. Carle and Salo struggled. The team's systems-play was a mess, and it precipitated a change behind the bench, with John Cooper taking over for ~~the Bond villain~~ Guy Boucher.

4. Florida Panthers:

What I got right:

The Panthers will drop from first to fourth, in large part due to regression on both an individual and team level... At the team level, the Panthers sucked in overtime and shootouts, but they got into extra time more often than any other team in the league (25 times). Look for the Panthers to miss out on a few more of those "tie points" in 2013.

Check and check.

Though the Panthers seemingly have decent forward depth with Versteeg, Fleischmann, Weiss, Scottie Upshall, Mueller, Sean Bergenheim, Marcel Goc, Shawn Matthias, and Tomas Kopecky, the fact that GM Dale Tallon felt the need to sign Alexei Kovalev is an ill omen that shows how desperate the Panthers are for top-end skill.

The Alexei Kovalev experience didn't last too long in Florida, but the Cats did lack for any kind of consistent top-end talent, particularly once Weiss went down to injury.

Kuba is steady and can produce some points on the power play, but he's also getting up there in years and shouldn't be counted on for top-pairing minutes

Kuba got minimal power play time and produced four assists, but he certainly showed himself to be past his prime.

What I got wrong:

Mueller produces when healthy, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for several years.

Mueller stayed relatively healthy, but he didn't produce all that much, scoring 8 goals to go with 9 assists. He was, however, a Corsi beast, so perhaps he's a candidate for some shooting-percentage regression next year.

One area the Panthers aren't desperate is between the pipes, with steady veterans Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen holding the fort until prospect Jakob Markstrom is ready to take over.

Swing and a miss. It's hard to know how much of the Panthers' goaltending woes were defense, and how much was the fault of the men between the pipes, but holy Moses - Markstrom led the team with a .901 save percentage.

Barring a significant step forward from Erik Gudbransonand/or Jonathan Huberdeau, the Panthers will likely miss the playoffs.

Huberdeau showed that he could be a star as soon as next year. Gudbranson is still raw, but again, it's hard to smell good when you're up to your neck in raw sewage. I was pretty sure they wouldn't make the playoffs, but I definitely didn't see Florida as the worst team in the league.

5. Winnipeg Jets:

What I got right:

The Jets have talented and promising players sprinkled throughout their lineup, but they're spread far too thinly and too many are relatively one-dimensional. Dustin Byfuglien, for example, is an offensive force from the blue line. Unfortunately, his defense is forcefully atrocious. Zach Bogosian shows promise, but he remains hindered after offseason wrist surgery. In theory, Olli Jokinen,Bryan Little, Alexander Burmistrov, and Nik Antropov give the Jets three scoring-line centers. In reality, none of the three would be a top-line center on a Cup contender (although Burmistrov has potential), and Antropov is injured.

Overall, this was accurate. The Jets made the smart choice to let Scheifele stay in junior, so that was one less promising young player. Burmistrov looks a little lost. He has all sorts of talent though. Little had an outstanding year, but Jokinen was atrocious, and this might be the end of the road for the Joki-Turtle.

Perhaps the Jets can fly out of the basement if Bogosian returns, Ondrej Pavelec stands on his head, and young players like Mark Schiefele exceed expectations. Otherwise the frequent flyer miles will take their toll and ground the Jets before the playoffs.

Pavelec was terrible, and Bogosian wasn't a difference-maker. The Jets were better than expected, but they missed the playoffs. Enjoy the Western Conference Next year, boys!

What I got wrong:

The Jets took advantage of a raucous "honeymoon" crowd to post a relatively strong home record, but they were done in by an atrocious record on the road. With a compressed season filled with trips to the southeast, look for this pattern to continue.

Nope. The Jets were 13-10-1 at home and 11-11-2 on the road.

Evander Kane and Andrew Ladd provide grit and scoring from the wings, Alexei Ponikarovsky can score a bit and Blake Wheeler brings his, well, wheels, but it's not enough to offset the overall lack of talent across the roster.

Kane didn't take the major step forward into power-forward stardom that everyone is waiting for him to take. Something tells me he may have to leave Winnipeg to truly blossom. Ladd, on the other hand, was a revelation. Did I say revelation? I meant "lucky S.O.B." He shot 14.9% this year for 18 goals, against a career average of around 11%. He had a year like this before in 2010-2011, so it's not entirely unprecedented, but it was unexpected. Same thing goes for Wheeler. He shot 14.7% for 19 goals, against a career average of around 11. As with Ladd, Wheeler did this before in his rookie year in Boston, but it was an unlikely event.

Projected Standings (With Actual Standings in Parentheses)

(Division winners denoted with italics)

Western Conference

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks (same)
St. Louis Blues (same)
Detroit Red Wings (same)
Nashville Predators (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Columbus Blue Jackets (Nashville Predators)

Northwest Division

Vancouver Canucks (same)
Minnesota Wild (same)
Edmonton Oilers (same)
Colorado Avalanche (Calgary Flames)
Calgary Flames (Colorado Avalanche)

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Kings (Anaheim Ducks)
San Jose Sharks (Los Angeles Kings)
Phoenix Coyotes (San Jose Sharks)
Anaheim Ducks (Phoenix Coyotes)
Dallas Stars (same)

Western Conference Overall

Vancouver Canucks (Chicago Blackhawks)
Chicago Blackhawks (Anaheim Ducks)
Los Angeles Kings (Vancouver Canucks)
St. Louis Blues (same)
San Jose Sharks (Los Angeles Kings)
Detroit Red Wings (San Jose Sharks)
Phoenix Coyotes (Detroit Red Wings)
Minnesota Wild (same)
Nashville Predators (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Anaheim Ducks (Phoenix Coyotes)
Edmonton Oilers (Dallas Stars)
Colorado Avalanche (Edmonton Oilers)
Dallas Stars (Calgary Flames)
Calgary Flames (Nashville Predators)
Columbus Blue Jackets (Colorado Avalanche)

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

New York Rangers (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Pittsburgh Penguins (New York Rangers)
Philadelphia Flyers (New York Islanders)
New York Islanders (Philadelphia Flyers)
New Jersey Devils (same)

Northeast Division

Boston Bruins (Montreal Canadiens)
Buffalo Sabres (Boston Bruins)
Montreal Canadiens (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Ottawa Senators (same)
Toronto Maple Leafs (Buffalo Sabres)

Southeast Division

Washington Capitals (same)
Carolina Hurricanes (Winnipeg Jets)
Tampa Bay Lighting (Carolina Hurricanes)
Florida Panthers (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Winnipeg Jets (Florida Panthers)

Eastern Conference Overall:

New York Rangers (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Boston Bruins (Montreal Canadiens)
Washington Capitals (same)
Pittsburgh Penguins (Boston Bruins)
Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tampa Bay Lightning (New York Rangers)
Buffalo Sabres (Ottawa Senators)
Philadelphia Flyers (New York Islanders)
Montreal Canadiens (Winnipeg Jets)
New York Islanders (Philadelphia Flyers)
Florida Panthers (New Jersey Devils)
New Jersey Devils (Buffalo Sabres)
Ottawa Senators (Carolina Hurricanes)
Winnipeg Jets (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Toronto Maple Leafs (Florida Panthers)

Western Conference

Overall, I think I did pretty well with the west. I overestimated Phoenix, Nashville, and to a lesser extent, Colorado and Minnesota. I underestimated Anaheim, and seriously shortchanged Columbus.

Central Division

I did my best work on the Central, only transposing the Predators and the Blue Jackets in the final standings, and honestly, who foresaw the BJs competing for the playoffs?

1. Chicago Blackhawks:
What I got right:

Chicago could put the puck in the net last year, they just couldn't keep it out very well, and that was mostly down to the mediocre goaltending provided by Corey Crawford and his backup Ray Emery. If Crawford can give the Hawks merely league-average goaltending or better, they should win the division.

What I got wrong:

If Crawford falters, I could easily see the Hawks making a deal to upgrade their goaltending prior to the playoffs.

Ultimately, Crawford and Emery gave the Hawks the kind of goaltending that Halak and Elliott gave St. Louis last year, en route to a President's Trophy. So far, so good.

2. St. Louis Blues:

What I got right:

The Blues' transformation under Ken Hitchcock was one of the great stories of 2011-2012. The Blues were a team loaded with untapped potential that Hitch's coaching savvy and attention to detail helped to blossom. Or so the story goes. While there's a degree of truth to that story, I doubt Hitchcock was directly responsible for turning Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak into the second coming(s) of Dominik Hasek. Simply put - there's no chance that the Blues get save percentages of .926 (Halak) and .940 (Elliot) out of their journeymen goaltending duo again. So, while the Blues will likely make the playoffs again, they won't be in contention for the President's Trophy.

What I got wrong:

I pretty much nailed this one.

3. Detroit Red Wings:

What I got right:

So begins year zero, AL (after Lidstrom). The Wings still have enough talent up and down the roster to make the playoffs, butBrendan Smith, Carlo Colaiacovo and Kyle Quincey are not going to make up for the loss of Nicklas Lidstrom.

What I got wrong:

Again, not much.

4. Nashville Predators:

What I got right:

The likely regression on defense and the continued lack of a game-breaking talent up front will leave them struggling to make the playoffs from a tough division.

What I got wrong:

I had this pretty spot-on, but I didn't foresee. . .

5. Columbus Blue Jackets:

What I got right:

At least the Nash trade will at least assure that half of the Blue Jackets' roster isn't filled out by AHL players...

The depth brought back by the Nash trade, along with Sergei Bobrovsky playing like . . . well, Steve Mason in 2008-2009, went a long way toward making the BJs more than a doormat.

The continued employment of Scott Howson is a minor miracle.

Howson was fired mid-season.

What I got wrong:

To paraphrase Dave Chappelle, "What can I say about Columbus that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?"

Northwest Division

I did pretty well with the Northwest (or should I say "Northworst"). I got most of the substance correct, despite transposing the finish of the bottom-two.

1. Vancouver Canucks:

What I got right:

The Canucks are a somewhat obvious choice, but still they are still the best team in the division. Injuries to Ryan Kesler andDavid Booth will hurt their secondary scoring to start the season.

The secondary scoring did suffer without Kesler and Booth.

What I got wrong:

Vancouver had trade chips in Roberto Luongo and Keith Ballard that could shore up their scoring and defensive depth should those injuries linger

Vancouver did trade to shore up their secondary scoring--acquiring Derek Roy at the deadline-- but they never moved Luongo or Ballard.

2. Minnesota Wild:

What I got right:

With a solid corps of goaltenders, a healthy Mikko Koivu, a cupboard stocked with prospects, and a defense with Ryan Suter as its anchor, the Wild are poised for a big season. Having Zach Parise, Dany Heatley, and Devon Setoguchi as their top-three wings will give the Wild the best scoring punch in their history.

What I got wrong:

A healthy Pierre-Marc Bouchard(as much a contradiction in terms as "healthy Rick DiPietro"?) should add to the Wild's firepower.

Bouchard stayed healthy, but he didn't play a major role in the Wild's success. The Wild also struggled to make the playoffs a bit more than I expected.

3. Edmonton Oilers:

What I got right:

I believe the Oilers will take third in the Northwest on the strength of their scoring - provided both Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can stay healthy and Nail Yakupov can score the way he's capable of. Justin Schultz will bolster the Oilers' blue line, but talk of a Calder Trophy based on his play in the AHL may be a bit premature.

The Oilers did score enough to capture third, but they didn't score enough to make the playoffs, or to overcome their porous defense. Schultz was decent, but certainly not Calder-worthy.

What I got wrong:

More likely, however, is that the Oilers fall just short and ship out some of their older players (Horcoff) at the deadline.

While not totally wrong, the Oilers didn't ship out their veterans at the deadline (even though they probably should have).

4. Colorado Avalanche:

What I got right:

Erik Johnson hasn't worked out as the "franchise" defenseman that the Avs thought they were getting, and it's unlikely that, in hindsight, the Avs would trade Kevin Shattenkirk for Johnson straight-up. This year, the Avs are shooting themselves in the foot by low-balling Ryan O'Reilly, their leading scorer from last year and an absolute stud of a two-way centerman. If Matt Duchene can suddenly remember how to play hockey and return to being a top-two center, the loss of O'Reilly might not sting as badly. Gabriel Landeskog is a beast, and the addition of P.A. Parenteau will add some scoring depth, but the Avs desperately need Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene, and Johnson to play up to their potential if they're going to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

Duchene remembered how to play hockey, and Parenteau held up his end of the bargain, but Landeskog got hurt and regressed without O'Reilly.

What I got wrong:

Additionally, the Avs will need Semyon Varlamov to stay healthy - something at which he's not been particularly fortunate in the past.

Varly stayed healthy--he just wasn't very good, especially on the road. While I thought the Avs would be bad, I didn't expect them to be 29th-place bad.

5. Calgary Flames:

What I got right:

The Flames' big offseason signings were Dennis Wideman and Jiri Hudler. . . which prompts the question: "why does Jay Feaster hate Jarome Iginla?" If ever there were a team in need of a full tear-down and rebuild, the Flames would be it. Their two best players (Iggy and Miikka Kiprussoff) are well past their primes, and while young players like Sven Bartschi could add some scoring, the team lacks the kind of young stars that Oilers have aplenty. This might be the season that Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester finally get traded. One would hope so, at least for their sakes.

Nailed it.

What I got wrong:

...young players like Sven Bartschi could add some scoring

Bartschi really didn't do much in the NHL this year, but the Flames managed to not finish in the basement.

Pacific Division

1. Los Angeles Kings:

What I got right:

It looks as though Kopitar should miss minimal time to start the season... The lockout could be a serious blessing for the Kings, given the long grind of the playoffs and Jonathan Quick's offseason back surgery. The team could use a bit more depth on defense

What I got wrong:

This is another extremely tough call - LA, Phoenix, and San Jose all have a legitimate shot at winning the Pacific and I went back and forth between LA and SJS, but ultimately I landed on the Kings because of the relative injury situations of the two teams... ...this may finally be the year that they decide to trade Jonathan Bernier, since he's a restricted free agent at the end of the year and the Kings are clearly committed to Quick.

2. San Jose Sharks:

What I got right:

The Sharks have some injury concerns on defense (with Burns, Demers, and Braun all questionable or out to start the season), but their depth and experience at center, combined with excellent coaching (now with 100% more Larry Robinson!) should put them into the playoffs. If Burns can get healthy quickly and the Sharks can get some scoring outside of their top-six, they could contend for the division. More likely, however, they'll end up at the upper end of the non-divisional winners.

Everything I said was more or less true.

What I got wrong:

3. Phoenix Coyotes:

What I got right:

...it's unlikely that Mike Smithrepeats what was, in all probability, a career year in 2011-2012. The departure of Ray Whitney is going to hurt...

Smith didn't repeat his performance, and the Coyotes missed Whitney's scoring.

What I got wrong:

...but having Antoine Vermettefor a full season, along with the additions of Matt Lombardi and Steve Sullivan (if healthy) should keep the Coyotes in contention for a playoff spot.

4. Anaheim Ducks:

What I got right:

The Ducks are an odd. . . duck. Are they the team that flamed out spectacularly early in the season, leading to the firing of Randy Carlyle and the hiring of Bruce Boudreau? Or are they the team that mounted a late-season charge before falling well short of a playoff spot? I think they're far more likely the latter rather than the former. To wit: Corey Perry,Ryan Getzlaf, and Jonas Hiller all endured "down" years in 2011-2012. All three should bounce back, and they'd better, because the Ducks are awfully thin on scoring depth...

...something about Souray and Cam Fowlerpotentially playing on the points together fairly screams "shorthanded goal."

The Ducks surrendered 5 shorthanded goals-against, which tied them for third-most in the league, and Fowler and Souray were both on the ice for two of them.

What I got wrong:

The Ducks could really benefit from Kyle Palmieri or Andrew Cogliano stepping up and seizing a second-line scoring role, which would allow Daniel Winnik to take his wheels and stone hands to the third line where he belongs.

Palmieri and Cogliano both improved their scoring this year, but Winnik remained a "second-line" player (at least in terms of even strength time on ice and his line mates).

On defense, Sheldon Sourayshould provide some help to the power play...

Souray may have helped bit with 5 points on the power play, but not nearly as much as the emergence of Francois Beauchemin as a #1 defenseman and power-play threat with 8 points.

5. Dallas Stars:

What I got right:

It's almost as though the Stars can't figure out which way they'd like to go. Trading away Steve Ott, Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Grossman, and Marc Fistric while letting Sheldon Souray leave as a free agent would seemingly suggest that the Stars were looking to rebuild around a young core of Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, Kari Lehtonen, and Alex Goligoski. Then they sign aging free agents like Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney while neglecting to get Jamie Benn (a restricted free agent) under contract before the start of the season. It's enough to leave on scratching one's head. Derek Roy will give the Stars more two-way play than Ribeiro provided out of the #2C slot, and hopefully for the Stars, Cody Eakin can take over the #3C slot. Still, their defense will be an adventure. If Jagr and Whitney can replicate their 2011-2012 performances, the Stars could eke into the playoffs. Somewhere between the 10th and 13th seed is far more likely, however.

What I got wrong:

Derek Roy will give the Stars more two-way play than Ribeiro provided out of the #2C slot,

Eastern Conference

I overestimated the Rangers, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Carolina, Tampa, and to a lesser extent Florida. I underestimated Pittsburgh, the Islanders, Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg.

Atlantic Division

1. New York Rangers:

What I got right:

Getting a full season out ofMarc Staal and Anton Stralman will help the Rangers' defense, but if there's a weak point on their team, the pairing of Michael Del Zotto andStu Bickel is it. Look for the Rangers to shore up their defensive depth at some point in the season.

What I got wrong:

Per usual, the Rangers made a big offseason splash, acquiring Rick Nash from the Blue Jackets in return for Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Tim Erixon, and a first-round pick. Such is the depth of the Rangers that the losses of Dubinsky, Anisimov, and Erixon will hardly be felt. Still the move puts pressure on young players such asDerek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, and Chris Kreider...Barring serious injuries (not inconsiderable, given the histories of Marc Staal, Marian Gaborik, and Ryan Callahan), the Rangers should be considered favorites to prevail as the regular season Eastern Conference champions.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins:

What I got right:

The combination of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin down the middle is still the best 1-2 center punch in the league. Provided that both players can stay healthy of course.

Not really going out on a limb here. They are the best 1-2 center punch in the league, but they'll probably never both make it through an 82-game season unscathed. Not that it really matters.

The Pens likewise lack depth on defense. Kris Letang (when healthy) is an elite puck-moving defenseman, but Paul Martin has never quite performed as advertised and the departure of Zbynek Michalek leaves the Pens' defensive corps a little thin. The Pens are stocked with defensive prospects, but most of them are two to three years away from the NHL. In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury should bounce back from a sub-par year and an atrocious postseason. If he doesn't, Tomas Vokoun is a more than capable backup.

What I got wrong:

The Pens could push the Rangers for the division crown, but in all likelihood they'll have to "settle" for being either the four or five seed in the east. Brandon Sutter has the makings of a good, or possibly even a great 3C, but he lacks the offensive ability to be more than a band-aid should Malkin or Crosby see significant time in the press box. The Pens are built down the center, but they received strong play from James Neal and Chris Kunitz last year. After those two, however, there's a significant drop in scoring ability.

3. Philadelphia Flyers:

What I got right and wrong:

Here's my bold prediction: the Flyers will struggle to make the playoffs. It feels odd to type, and I'm sure that I'll catch some flak for it, but nevertheless, I think it's probable. The Flyers lost too much talent in the offseason and got career years out of too many players (Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds, and Matt Read) last year. If Ilya Bryzgalov regains his form, or the Flyers can trade for a proper goaltender, perhaps they can claw their way to a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed, but in all likelihood, this is a "regrouping" year in Philadelphia. Brayden and Luke Schenn have been underwhelming thus far in their professional careers, and the Flyers are banking that Brayden can replace Jagr and/or James van Riemsdyk, while Luke offsets the loss of Chris Pronger and Matt Carle. Claude Giroux is still one of the best players in hockey, and Peter Laviolette is a hell of a coach, but the Flyers' lack of depth on defense and the losses up front (don't forget the injury to Daniel Briere) will be difficult to overcome.

4. New York Islanders:

What I got right:

Here's another "bold" prediction: the Islanders won't finish in the Atlantic basement. At some point, the Islanders' wealth of talent should result in a playoff berth. That's unlikely in 2013, but they should be closer than in years past. With John Tavares, Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo,Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner, and Brad Boyes up front, the Isles should be able to put the puck in the net. Mark Streit and (presumably at some point) Lubomir Visnovsky give the Isles two excellent power-play quarterbacks. Evgeni Nabokov should solidify the goaltending position. The Isles will lack depth on defense, particularly if Visnovsky remains AWOL and Hamonic can't stay healthy.

What I got wrong:

Should one of those guys falter, the Islanders have Nino Niederreiter tearing it up in Bridgeport.

Ultimately, I should have stuck to my guns and put the Isles in the playoffs.

5. New Jersey Devils:

What I got right:

Wait. . . what? Weren't the Devils just in the Stanley Cup Finals? Yes, but the team is without Zach Parise and, to start the season, Adam Henrique. Sure, Travis Zajac is healthy and Ilya Kovalchukdecided to come back from Mother Russia, but this is still a team riddled with holes. Martin Brodeur will likely benefit from the time off he received during the lockout (provided he can still fit into his pads), but that won't be enough to keep the Devils competitive in an absolutely brutal division.

All of this is more-or-less accurate.

What I got wrong:

Martin Brodeur will likely benefit from the time off he received during the lockout (provided he can still fit into his pads)

Northeast Division

1. Boston Bruins:

What I got right:

With Nathan Horton back and healthy, the Bruins will boast a strong top-six with Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic, Tyler Seguin,David Krejci, and Brad Marchand. Depth players like Rich Peverley andChris Kelly bring some scoring to the bottom lines and are capable of filling in on the top-two lines should injuries strike. In contrast to their forward lines, the B's lack depth at defense. Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg will again be a solid shutdown pairing, but the quality drops off quickly thereafter. Johnny Boychuk and Andrew Ference are out of their depth as a second pairing. The B's had better hope that Dougie Hamilton is ready for the NHL. So long as Chara and Tuukka Rask stay healthy, the B's should have a top-three seed locked up.

What I got wrong:

The Northeast Division, much like the Northwest, is one strong team and a whole bunch of "meh." The Bruins will again ice a Cup-contending team, but they'll really benefit from just how weak the rest of their division is.

2. Buffalo Sabres:

What I got right:

I suppose somebody has to come in second in the Northeast. . . so why not the Sabres? I'll tell you why not: Cody Hodgson,Tyler Ennis, Steve Ott, and Jochen Hecht. Those are the Sabres' centers for 2013. It's possible that Mikhail Grigorenko sticks with the team, in which case their center depth won't be a total joke, but still.

Grigorenko didn't stick, and their center depth was atrocious. Honestly, every part of their team was atrocious, but the rot started at the center position.

What I got wrong:

I suppose somebody has to come in second in the Northeast. . . so why not the Sabres? ... The defense, on the other hand, is ludicrously deep, and the Sabres could easily turn one of their nine NHL defensemen into additional forward depth. Ultimately, I think a strong year from Ryan Miller and Tyler Myers is enough to carry the Sabres to second in the Northwest, but making the playoffs could be tight.

2. Montreal Canadiens:

What I got right:

The Canadiens have a couple solid forward lines with Erik Cole, David Deharnais, Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec (if healthy), Rene Bourque, and Brian Gionta. If Alex Galchenyuk can stick with the team, the Habs should have decent scoring depth.

Replace Cole with Michael Ryder and this is still pretty much true. The Habs had eight players score ten or more goals, and Galchenyuk potted nine.

What I got wrong:

Again, I suppose someone has to come in third, so why not the Habs? Well, their top-two defensemen are P.K. Subban andAndrei Markov, one of whom is unsigned and the other has played only a handful of games in the last two years. With Subban out, the Habs are relying on Markov to stay healthy and play alongside the steady (and underrated) Josh Gorges. After that, the Habs are rolling out Alexei Emelin, Raphael Diaz, Yannick Weber, Francis Bouillon, and Tomas Kaberle. Carey Price had better be ready to see a lot of pucks.

3. Ottawa Senators:

What I got right:

Erik Karlsson had a stellar season last year, but I think he's due for significant regression, particularly given that opposing teams will have no excuse not to target him this year.

The Sens also benefited from a strong performance by Craig Anderson last year. Anderson will need to be even better this year if the Sens are going to have a prayer of making the playoffs.

What I got wrong:

Chris Phillips and Sergei Gonchar are serviceable, if a bit long in the tooth. After that, the Sens' defense gets uglier than Mike Ricci.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs:

What I got right:

the Leafs actually have a halfway-decent top six, with Phil Kessel, Mikhail Grabovski,Joffrey Lupul, James van Riemsdyk, and Nikolai Kulemin. ... and if Nazem Kadri can ever live up to his draft slot, the Leafs might actually have some forward depth. On the defensive side, the Leafs have a decent top-four with Dion Phaneuf, John-Michael Liles,Jake Gardiner, and Carl Gunnarsson. After that, however, comes the ghost of Mike Komisarek, Cody Franson and a bunch of question marks.

What I got wrong:

Jay McClement is a pretty good #3C,

I feel shame. I feel really, really stupid for having written this.

Already lacking center depth, the Leafs took the bold decision to waive Tim Connolly before the season, leaving Tyler Bozak as their presumptive #2 center.

Other than that, Speaking of question marks, the Leafs' goaltending situation is completely up in the air. Right now, James Reimer and Ben Scrivens are between the pipes, but many have presumed that the Leafs would be a primary suitor for Roberto Luongo. Well, that trade has yet to materialize, and the Leafs' duo of AHL-caliber goalies will consign them to the basement of the Northeast.

Southeast Division

1. Washington Capitals:

What I got right:

The 2012-2013 edition of the Caps will miss Alexander Semin's goal-scoring, but they'll likely make up for it by spreading the wealth (i.e. power-play time) to Wojtek Wolski, Eric Fehr, Mike Ribeiro, and Mathieu Perreault.

If we can forget about Wolski (Oates certainly did), and add in Troy Brouwer, this is pretty accurate.

Speaking of Ribeiro, the Caps go into the 2012-2013 season with a legitimate second-line center for the first time since 2008-2009. Once Brooks Laich is healthy (and presuming he returns to being the #3C) the Caps will have depth down the middle to match any team in the east.

Provided that the Caps can quickly learn Adam Oates' system, and that Oates' system improves the power play (and with it Alexander Ovechkin's production) the Caps should take one of the top-three seeds in the Eastern Conference.

What I got wrong:

The Caps are similarly deep on defense, although the quality drops off somewhat in the last pairing while Dmitry Orlov is injured. Still, with Mike Green healthy and John Carlson busted out of his sophomore slump, the Caps have two strong puck-movers to go with defensive stalwarts Karl Alzner, Roman Hamrlik and, if he can return to the form he showed prior to 2011-2012, Jeff Schultz. The near-miraculous return of Tom Poti only adds to this depth.

While I whiffed on a couple details, I'd like to think I got the big picture right when it comes to the Caps.

2. Carolina Hurricanes:

What I got right:

Carolina's defense is still a bit shaky. Joni Pitkanen and Tim Gleason are strong defensemen, but on a deeper team, they'd be a second-pair tandem. Carolina has some talented young defenders in Justin Faulk, Jamie McBain, and Bobby Sanguinetti, but the less said about Joe Corvo, the better.

The addition of Jordan Staal has given the Canes a solid 1-2 punch at center, should coach Kirk Muller decide to split Jordan from his brotherEric Staal, rather than playing Eric on Jordan's wing as some have suggested.

What I got wrong:

3. Tampa Bay Lightning:

What I got right:

The Bolts, led by Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, and Teddy Purcell, showed an ability to put the puck in the net. The Lightning hope that the additions of B.J. Crombeen,Benoit Pouliot, and Cory Conacher will increase their scoring depth.

What I got wrong:

The other end of the ice was, however, another story altogether. The Lightning's defense and goaltending both struggled, surrendering the most goals in the league (281). Lightning GM Steve Yzerman sought to address this problem in the offseason by adding free agents Sami Salo and Matt Carle, and trading for the young Keith Aulie to go along with midseason acquisition Brian Lee. Additionally, Yzerman acquired the enormous Anders Lindbackfrom Nashville. Some have worried about the "loss" of Matthias Ohlund will have a negative impact on the Bolts' defense corps, but given how poorly Ohlund has played the last two seasons, this may be an addition by subtraction. Yzerman has done an impressive job rebuilding his defense and goaltending, and it should be enough to return the Lightning to the playoffs, but not to capture the division.

4. Florida Panthers:

What I got right:

The Panthers will drop from first to fourth, in large part due to regression on both an individual and team level... At the team level, the Panthers sucked in overtime and shootouts, but they got into extra time more often than any other team in the league (25 times). Look for the Panthers to miss out on a few more of those "tie points" in 2013.

Check and check.

Though the Panthers seemingly have decent forward depth with Versteeg, Fleischmann, Weiss, Scottie Upshall, Mueller, Sean Bergenheim, Marcel Goc, Shawn Matthias, and Tomas Kopecky, the fact that GM Dale Tallon felt the need to sign Alexei Kovalev is an ill omen that shows how desperate the Panthers are for top-end skill.

The Alexei Kovalev experience didn't last too long in Florida, but the Cats did lack for any kind of consistent top-end talent, particularly once Weiss went down to injury.

Kuba is steady and can produce some points on the power play, but he's also getting up there in years and shouldn't be counted on for top-pairing minutes

Kuba got minimal power play time and produced four assists, but he certainly showed himself to be past his prime.

What I got wrong:

Mueller produces when healthy, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy for several years.

One area the Panthers aren't desperate is between the pipes, with steady veterans Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen holding the fort until prospect Jakob Markstrom is ready to take over.

Barring a significant step forward from Erik Gudbransonand/or Jonathan Huberdeau, the Panthers will likely miss the playoffs.

5. Winnipeg Jets:

What I got right:

The Jets have talented and promising players sprinkled throughout their lineup, but they're spread far too thinly and too many are relatively one-dimensional. Dustin Byfuglien, for example, is an offensive force from the blue line. Unfortunately, his defense is forcefully atrocious. Zach Bogosian shows promise, but he remains hindered after offseason wrist surgery. In theory, Olli Jokinen,Bryan Little, Alexander Burmistrov, and Nik Antropov give the Jets three scoring-line centers. In reality, none of the three would be a top-line center on a Cup contender (although Burmistrov has potential), and Antropov is injured.

Perhaps the Jets can fly out of the basement if Bogosian returns, Ondrej Pavelec stands on his head, and young players like Mark Schiefele exceed expectations. Otherwise the frequent flyer miles will take their toll and ground the Jets before the playoffs.

Pavelec was terrible, and Bogosian wasn't a difference-maker. The Jets were better than expected, but they missed the playoffs. Enjoy the Western Conference Next year, boys!

What I got wrong:

The Jets took advantage of a raucous "honeymoon" crowd to post a relatively strong home record, but they were done in by an atrocious record on the road. With a compressed season filled with trips to the southeast, look for this pattern to continue.

Nope. The Jets were 13-10-1 at home and 11-11-2 on the road.

Evander Kane and Andrew Ladd provide grit and scoring from the wings, Alexei Ponikarovsky can score a bit and Blake Wheeler brings his, well, wheels, but it's not enough to offset the overall lack of talent across the roster.

Projected Standings (With Actual Standings in Parentheses)

(Division winners denoted with italics)

Western Conference

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks (same)
St. Louis Blues (same)
Detroit Red Wings (same)
Nashville Predators (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Columbus Blue Jackets (Nashville Predators)

Northwest Division

Vancouver Canucks (same)
Minnesota Wild (same)
Edmonton Oilers (same)
Colorado Avalanche (Calgary Flames)
Calgary Flames (Colorado Avalanche)

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Kings (Anaheim Ducks)
San Jose Sharks (Los Angeles Kings)
Phoenix Coyotes (San Jose Sharks)
Anaheim Ducks (Phoenix Coyotes)
Dallas Stars (same)

Western Conference Overall

Vancouver Canucks (Chicago Blackhawks)
Chicago Blackhawks (Anaheim Ducks)
Los Angeles Kings (Vancouver Canucks)
St. Louis Blues (same)
San Jose Sharks (Los Angeles Kings)
Detroit Red Wings (San Jose Sharks)
Phoenix Coyotes (Detroit Red Wings)
Minnesota Wild (same)
Nashville Predators (Columbus Blue Jackets)
Anaheim Ducks (Phoenix Coyotes)
Edmonton Oilers (Dallas Stars)
Colorado Avalanche (Edmonton Oilers)
Dallas Stars (Calgary Flames)
Calgary Flames (Nashville Predators)
Columbus Blue Jackets (Colorado Avalanche)

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

New York Rangers (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Pittsburgh Penguins (New York Rangers)
Philadelphia Flyers (New York Islanders)
New York Islanders (Philadelphia Flyers)
New Jersey Devils (same)

Northeast Division

Boston Bruins (Montreal Canadiens)
Buffalo Sabres (Boston Bruins)
Montreal Canadiens (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Ottawa Senators (same)
Toronto Maple Leafs (Buffalo Sabres)

Southeast Division

Washington Capitals (same)
Carolina Hurricanes (Winnipeg Jets)
Tampa Bay Lighting (Carolina Hurricanes)
Florida Panthers (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Winnipeg Jets (Florida Panthers)

Eastern Conference Overall:

New York Rangers (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Boston Bruins (Montreal Canadiens)
Washington Capitals (same)
Pittsburgh Penguins (Boston Bruins)
Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Tampa Bay Lightning (New York Rangers)
Buffalo Sabres (Ottawa Senators)
Philadelphia Flyers (New York Islanders)
Montreal Canadiens (Winnipeg Jets)
New York Islanders (Philadelphia Flyers)
Florida Panthers (New Jersey Devils)
New Jersey Devils (Buffalo Sabres)
Ottawa Senators (Carolina Hurricanes)
Winnipeg Jets (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Toronto Maple Leafs (Florida Panthers)

Team PDO and what it might mean for the playoffs for the Caps

2013-04-25T21:03:44Z

his is my first foray into FanPosts and also a first foray into what I hope will be a meaningful discussion of PDO statistics. I will gladly welcome constructive criticism of any kind.

For those not familiar with the PDO stat, a definition and history of the stat can be found here. One subtle but possibly important distinction here is that the PDO values I use below are for all situations. The definition referred to above identifies the statistic to be for even strength only.

I became obsessed, to a degree, with the PDO stat earlier this year. It all started with a Noon Number that J.P. posted on Feb 21, 2013. While trying to understand that particular Noon Number, I made this graph

NOTE: The X-Axis scale is from 0.7 to 1.3 and each bar represents 0.01 in PDO. My apologies.

that showed how strongly correlated a team's PDO was with winning a game. The graph shows how many times a team with a particular PDO won, loss or "tied" a game. The resulting graph was not particularly surprising because it wasn't much different than just counting how many goals each team won at the end of the game to see who won. It did surprise me, though, that getting a PDO for a game of 1.03 was enough to pretty much guarantee a win.

However, the realization that the Caps only required consistent mediocre performance to become a powerhouse along with previous overheard discussions about PDO and "luck" made me wonder whether PDO could identify when a team was on a hot streak (or slump) that was out of character for the talent level on the team. It also made we wonder whether PDO could give a hint as to the outcome of Stanley Cup playoff games at season's end.

To start, I began to compile team PDO statistics for the teams this season. Now that we are approaching the playoffs and a discussion has begun as to who the Caps should play in the first round, I decided to do a little analysis to see whether one opponent might be a better choice to make it through the first round than another. The results have been interesting (if they actually mean anything) because they seem to run counter to what most people think.

For starters, lets look at the PDO computed over the course of the season for the playoff contenders in the Eastern Conference:

PITTSBURGH	1.028
BOSTON	1.006
WASHINGTON	1.027
MONTREAL	1.002
TORONTO	1.030
NY ISLANDERS	0.992
OTTAWA	1.004
NY RANGERS	1.003
WINNIPEG	0.992

These values, at first glance, look very exciting. The Caps are on par with Pittsburgh for the year. But we also see that Toronto is actually higher than both the Caps and Pittsburgh. Is that some sort of fluke? Let's look at plots of some of the Eastern Conference playoff team PDOs for the season to see how they got there:

What we can see is that Toronto and Pittsburgh have settled into the 1.020 to 1.030 range for the last 30 games or so. The Caps have been creeping up steadily and it is not quite as clear where they may settle out to. But do these numbers really mean anything? Could they just mean the teams have been lucky? Further research on the internet into PDO turned up this fine article. It does a pretty good job of putting limitations on how much PDO changes due to luck. All three of these teams seem very unlikely to be in the range they are without a high skill level playing a significant role. In fact, when I calculate the z-score for all three where the standard deviation due to chance is 0.011, they are over 2 standard deviations away from the average (Toronto is almost 3 SD away). This means to me that there is less than a 5% chance that the Caps have a high PDO by pure luck. The fact that the PDO has remained high and climbing implies to me that there is essentially a zero chance that their high PDO is luck.

So we have proof that the Caps are a skilled team. That is reassuring but not terribly enlightening.

One of the items I found fascinating about the article mentioned above, was the ability to predict how a team would fare in the standings based on their PDO. I was curious how the Caps fared so I used the coefficients from the article and plotted out the projected points and compared it to the Caps existing standings points throughout the season. (NOTE: Since the "Panther point" throws the equations off, anytime the Caps went into overtime or a shootout, they were awarded 1.5 points and this is referred to as "Adjusted Pts" in the plots)

Interesting. The Caps have underperformed in the standings from where they should be with their PDO. Their PDO implies that they should really be in the 65 point range in the standings (right up there with Pittsburgh, Chicago, Anaheim, Boston, etc).

One of my concerns, though, is whether a season long PDO is hiding a problem in a shorter term. With so many games thrown into the average, any recent trends are going to be hidden in the final result. So I went back to the data and created sliding windows of 10, 20, and 30 games each. For example, I took the PDO for games 1-10, then the PDO for games 2-11, etc. When I plot out the PDO values together for the Capitals, I see the following:

Again, the results are extremely promising. It also shows me that the 10 game sliding window is almost too noisy to make any sense of. The 20 game sliding window seems the easiest to see recent trends and it shows a very promising upward trend to the present day. Let's look at the PDO plots for the other Eastern Conference playoff teams:

First, Pittsburgh:

They look to be holding pretty steady and pretty skilled. Not much of a change when Crosby got injured. An impressive team to say the least.

Next, Boston:

Ooohh! Looky looky. The bear appears to be tiring out. That could spell problems for them in the playoffs.

Next is Montreal:

Another team losing steam.

How about the Islanders:

Holding steady and possibly turning it up a notch for the playoffs. However, their PDO is pretty pedestrian.

How is Ottawa doing:

Another team that appears to be losing steam as the playoffs approach.

The Rangers?

Holding steady. Consistency is definitely one of their strong points.

and finally, what about Winnipeg:

Losing momentum and the lowest PDO of the bunch. No surprise if they miss the playoffs entirely.

So, do these numbers mean anything going into the playoffs? I decided to use the same calculations on last year's playoff matchups and produced the following table of data:

	Full Season PDO	Delta Season PDO	SW20 PDO	Delta SW20 PDO	SW20 Slope over last 5 games	SW20 Slope over last 3 games	1st Round Playoff Record
NY RANGERS	1.015	0.009	0.973	-0.031	-0.003	-0.007	4-3
BOSTON	1.019	0.015	0.999	-0.003	0.001	0.001	3-4
FLORIDA	0.993	-0.013	0.986	-0.042	-0.001	-0.001	3-4
PITTSBURGH	1.003	0.003	1.025	0.001	-0.001	-0.001	3-4
PHILADELPHIA	1.000	-0.003	1.024	-0.001	0.002	0.001	4-3
NEW JERSEY	1.006	0.013	1.028	0.042	0.005	0.004	4-3
WASHINGTON	1.004	-0.015	1.002	0.003	0.003	0.001	4-3
OTTAWA	1.005	-0.009	1.004	0.031	-0.007	-0.008	3-4

VANCOUVER	1.018	0.020	0.998	-0.011	-0.001	-0.001	1-4
ST LOUIS	1.008	0.016	1.016	0.025	-0.002	-0.004	4-1
PHOENIX	1.010	0.016	1.011	0.025	0.003	0.001	4-2
NASHVILLE	1.022	0.019	1.024	0.038	0.000	0.002	4-1
DETROIT	1.002	-0.019	0.986	-0.038	0.001	0.002	1-4
CHICAGO	0.994	-0.016	0.986	-0.025	-0.001	0.002	2-4
SAN JOSE	0.993	-0.016	0.991	-0.025	0.004	0.002	1-4
LOS ANGELES	0.998	-0.020	1.009	0.011	-0.001	-0.002	4-1

As you can see, the 20 game sliding window did a reasonably good job of identifying potential winners. It identified 5 of the eight pretty clearly, in my mind. St. Louis, Phoenix, Nashville, Los Angeles and New Jersey. It appears to miss the NY Rangers / Ottawa match up completely. By the numbers above, Ottawa should have taken out the Rangers in 5 or 6 games instead of losing in 7. The Boston / Washington series looks too close to call and the same goes for the Pittsburgh / Philadelphia series. Both of which went the full seven games.

The outlier of Ottawa and the Rangers annoyed me. So I decided to dig a little deeper. If folks remember correctly, Ottawa lost their star forward, Alfredsson, due to a concussion weeks before the playoffs. He did not return until game 7 of the NYR-OTT series. While it might be easy to say his impact on the PDO did not register in the 20 game sliding window, I have no proof of it. In fact, I couldn't find a significant change in either shooting % or save % after he was injured. Also, Gaborik, of the Rangers, was injured during the playoff series and yet the Rangers still managed to win.

One of the things about PDO that I found a little disturbing, is that approximately 90% of the value is based on the goalie's performance (and/or team defense) and only 10% is based on the offensive ability of the team. I decided, on a lark, to make the two values equal and create a weighted PDO where 55.6% of the save % is used and the shooting % is multiplied by 5. We can no longer assume the league average for the weighted PDO is 1.0 and I have to admit I was too lazy to try to calculate what the league average would be. Nor can we use the same deltas above as a reference to what may be a significant difference between two teams weighted PDOs.

Anyways, I calculated the weighted PDOs for last year's playoff teams and got the following table of data:

	Weighted PDO	Delta Weighted PDO	SW20 Weighted PDO	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
NY RANGERS	0.994	0.005	0.947	-0.015
BOSTON	1.017	0.029	1.044	0.071
FLORIDA	0.923	-0.086	0.891	-0.127
PITTSBURGH	1.009	0.008	1.125	0.096
PHILADELPHIA	1.000	-0.008	1.029	-0.096
NEW JERSEY	1.009	0.086	1.018	0.127
WASHINGTON	0.988	-0.029	0.973	-0.071
OTTAWA	0.989	-0.005	0.962	0.015

VANCOUVER	0.994	0.096	0.877	-0.116
ST LOUIS	0.932	0.015	0.955	0.057
PHOENIX	0.957	-0.023	0.930	-0.039
NASHVILLE	1.034	0.059	1.048	0.105
DETROIT	0.975	-0.059	0.942	-0.105
CHICAGO	0.980	0.023	0.969	0.039
SAN JOSE	0.917	-0.015	0.898	-0.057
LOS ANGELES	0.898	-0.096	0.993	0.116

As we can see, not the Ottawa / Rangers series looks a heck of a lot closer than it did before. If we use 0.1 as a cut-off between a toss-up and a leaning, we see now that the NYR / OTT, WSH / BOS and PIT / PHI series are all toss-ups. New Jersey is still a winner against Florida. In the Western Conference, Los Angeles still defeats Vancouver and Nashville still defeats Detroit. The other games become toss-ups.

So, using this methodology, how does the Eastern Conference currently stand?

	Weighted PDO	Delta Weighted PDO	SW20 Weighted PDO	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
PITTSBURGH	1.069	0.131	1.016	0.056
BOSTON	0.939	0.055	0.862	-0.033
WASHINGTON	1.069	0.093	1.147	0.178
MONTREAL	1.001	-0.082	0.958	-0.155
TORONTO	1.083	0.082	1.113	0.155
NY ISLANDERS	0.977	-0.093	0.970	-0.178
OTTAWA	0.885	-0.055	0.895	0.033
NY RANGERS	0.938	-0.131	0.960	-0.056

It looks like the Caps could walk all over the Islanders.

What if the Caps were matched up against others?

	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
Toronto	0.035
Ottawa	0.252
NY Rangers	0.188
Winnipeg	0.181

In conclusion, I don't think I want to see a Caps / Toronto series. Ottawa would actually be my first choice with this criteria.

his is my first foray into FanPosts and also a first foray into what I hope will be a meaningful discussion of PDO statistics. I will gladly welcome constructive criticism of any kind.

NOTE: The X-Axis scale is from 0.7 to 1.3 and each bar represents 0.01 in PDO. My apologies.

For starters, lets look at the PDO computed over the course of the season for the playoff contenders in the Eastern Conference:

PITTSBURGH	1.028
BOSTON	1.006
WASHINGTON	1.027
MONTREAL	1.002
TORONTO	1.030
NY ISLANDERS	0.992
OTTAWA	1.004
NY RANGERS	1.003
WINNIPEG	0.992

So we have proof that the Caps are a skilled team. That is reassuring but not terribly enlightening.

First, Pittsburgh:

They look to be holding pretty steady and pretty skilled. Not much of a change when Crosby got injured. An impressive team to say the least.

Next, Boston:

Ooohh! Looky looky. The bear appears to be tiring out. That could spell problems for them in the playoffs.

Next is Montreal:

Another team losing steam.

How about the Islanders:

Holding steady and possibly turning it up a notch for the playoffs. However, their PDO is pretty pedestrian.

How is Ottawa doing:

Another team that appears to be losing steam as the playoffs approach.

The Rangers?

Holding steady. Consistency is definitely one of their strong points.

and finally, what about Winnipeg:

Losing momentum and the lowest PDO of the bunch. No surprise if they miss the playoffs entirely.

So, do these numbers mean anything going into the playoffs? I decided to use the same calculations on last year's playoff matchups and produced the following table of data:

	Full Season PDO	Delta Season PDO	SW20 PDO	Delta SW20 PDO	SW20 Slope over last 5 games	SW20 Slope over last 3 games	1st Round Playoff Record
NY RANGERS	1.015	0.009	0.973	-0.031	-0.003	-0.007	4-3
BOSTON	1.019	0.015	0.999	-0.003	0.001	0.001	3-4
FLORIDA	0.993	-0.013	0.986	-0.042	-0.001	-0.001	3-4
PITTSBURGH	1.003	0.003	1.025	0.001	-0.001	-0.001	3-4
PHILADELPHIA	1.000	-0.003	1.024	-0.001	0.002	0.001	4-3
NEW JERSEY	1.006	0.013	1.028	0.042	0.005	0.004	4-3
WASHINGTON	1.004	-0.015	1.002	0.003	0.003	0.001	4-3
OTTAWA	1.005	-0.009	1.004	0.031	-0.007	-0.008	3-4

VANCOUVER	1.018	0.020	0.998	-0.011	-0.001	-0.001	1-4
ST LOUIS	1.008	0.016	1.016	0.025	-0.002	-0.004	4-1
PHOENIX	1.010	0.016	1.011	0.025	0.003	0.001	4-2
NASHVILLE	1.022	0.019	1.024	0.038	0.000	0.002	4-1
DETROIT	1.002	-0.019	0.986	-0.038	0.001	0.002	1-4
CHICAGO	0.994	-0.016	0.986	-0.025	-0.001	0.002	2-4
SAN JOSE	0.993	-0.016	0.991	-0.025	0.004	0.002	1-4
LOS ANGELES	0.998	-0.020	1.009	0.011	-0.001	-0.002	4-1

Anyways, I calculated the weighted PDOs for last year's playoff teams and got the following table of data:

	Weighted PDO	Delta Weighted PDO	SW20 Weighted PDO	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
NY RANGERS	0.994	0.005	0.947	-0.015
BOSTON	1.017	0.029	1.044	0.071
FLORIDA	0.923	-0.086	0.891	-0.127
PITTSBURGH	1.009	0.008	1.125	0.096
PHILADELPHIA	1.000	-0.008	1.029	-0.096
NEW JERSEY	1.009	0.086	1.018	0.127
WASHINGTON	0.988	-0.029	0.973	-0.071
OTTAWA	0.989	-0.005	0.962	0.015

VANCOUVER	0.994	0.096	0.877	-0.116
ST LOUIS	0.932	0.015	0.955	0.057
PHOENIX	0.957	-0.023	0.930	-0.039
NASHVILLE	1.034	0.059	1.048	0.105
DETROIT	0.975	-0.059	0.942	-0.105
CHICAGO	0.980	0.023	0.969	0.039
SAN JOSE	0.917	-0.015	0.898	-0.057
LOS ANGELES	0.898	-0.096	0.993	0.116

So, using this methodology, how does the Eastern Conference currently stand?

	Weighted PDO	Delta Weighted PDO	SW20 Weighted PDO	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
PITTSBURGH	1.069	0.131	1.016	0.056
BOSTON	0.939	0.055	0.862	-0.033
WASHINGTON	1.069	0.093	1.147	0.178
MONTREAL	1.001	-0.082	0.958	-0.155
TORONTO	1.083	0.082	1.113	0.155
NY ISLANDERS	0.977	-0.093	0.970	-0.178
OTTAWA	0.885	-0.055	0.895	0.033
NY RANGERS	0.938	-0.131	0.960	-0.056

It looks like the Caps could walk all over the Islanders.

What if the Caps were matched up against others?

	Delta SW20 Weighted PDO
Toronto	0.035
Ottawa	0.252
NY Rangers	0.188
Winnipeg	0.181

In conclusion, I don't think I want to see a Caps / Toronto series. Ottawa would actually be my first choice with this criteria.

My Analysis on Current Caps' Lines and Expectations for Future Caps

2013-04-24T23:39:17Z

Now that almost every Cap is clicking on all cylinders, I thought it would be the time to ask the Japers' Rink community what they think about this roster and our future roster. Let's get into it!

The First Line

Nothing makes me happier than to see Ovi and Nicky on top of their game. Without a doubt Ovechkin and Backstrom are 2 of the top players in the league and I expect that to keep up for at least a couple of more years, but I honestly have no idea how long Ovi is going to be Ovi. The main question on my mind about this trio is Marcus Johannson. I don't know what to think of him, is he just benefiting from the aftermentioned duo, or is he actually giving the line another dynamic winger that elevates the others game? My guess is a little bit of both. It is impossible to not play with Ovi and Nicky and not benefit, impossible. But I do think his speed brings something to the line, but I do not see Mojo as a long term 1st liner.

The Second Line

I'm not exactly sure what to think of this line, but one thing I do know is that the Martin Erat trade was a great deal for the caps. He showed me last night why we need him in the team, 3rd period in the most important game in this regular season and he uses his speed, races the d man to the puck waiting in the corner and lays a check on him to gain possession and burn some more precious time off the clock. I had no idea he can play the body well and he has showed me that playing in Nashville really has developed a great 2 way player who can contribute as a great 2nd line forward. On to Brouwer, in my opinion Troy Brouwer is the player on this team who can make the biggest difference in the playoffs. Of course Ovi is also up there but due to the fact that he will get the Chara's every time he steps foot on the ice, Brouwer will get less difficult opposing players. Brouwer is also so important in my opinion because or everything he can do. Great shut down forward and body checker to add to his now great goal scoring touch. Now to the player that I really don't know what to think about him, Ribs. I really dont know if we need him for as long as he wants a contract. Just think when Kuzya makes the jump and he takes up a top 6 spot, if we have Ribs then which player moves down to the 3rd that right now no one wants to break up. I would be happy with a 1 or 2 year deal but nothing more.

The Third Line

This one will be short and sweet, Matty P's playmaking ability, combined with Fehr's strength, and Chimmer's speed provides us with a dynamic 3rd line.

The Forth Line

When no one else was fighting or even trying, Matt Hendricks was doing both. This line is the heart and soul of our team and they also do a hell of a job eating tough minutes. Im good with this line for the next couple years minus Volpatti and the addition of Chimmer or Ward. If there was a Heart Trophy for actual heart shown then Hendricks would most definitely be the recipient. And for your entertainment, the Beagliest goal anyone could ever imagine.

http://video.capitals.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20122013,2,193 (Just click on Beagle's highlight)

Defense

The Carlson/Erskine Line

In my opinion John Carlson is a true defensive centerpiece and a future Norris Trophy winner. I don't like Erskine with him though. Alzner is my preferred partner for him but I like have a great defenseman on each line. I would really like Orlov with him and Erskine moved to a third pairing with Hillen. Erskine is too slow and it makes much more sense to have someone like Orlov who can hit and skate then just a physical presence.

The Alzner/Green Line

This line might be the least shocking combination of players on this team. Team up the best defensive d man who is lacking offensively with the best offensive d man who is lacking defensively. Good line with a presence at both ends.

The Hillen/Oleksy Line

I love Hillen's skating and puck moving abilities for our 3rd d line. The sad thing is that I've watched every single game and all I know about Oleksy's playing style is that he is good getting the puck to the net. Maybe that is a sign of something. I would rather have Erskine here.

Holtby

Braden Holtby has been nothing shirt if spectacular for the majority of this season. Take out his first 5 games of the season and those stats put him in the middle of the Vezina Trophy conversation. He WILL win at least 1 Vezina before he hangs up the skates. I really hope more than anything that he is as clutch this year as last year. And he also has set the record of my made up stat, most shutouts lost late in blowout wins.

Injured Players

Brooks Laich

I fear he may never be a regularly be a member of the caps again. His presensce brings a great amount of leadership, defensiveness, and hard work. Not having him as a member of our 3rd line really hurts us because our 3rd line could be one of the greatest in the league.

Joel Ward

After having a great start he cooled off a whole lot. Right now I can only see him maybe in Chimmer or Volpatti's place. We miss his strong play along the boards, but other than that, I don't miss him much.

Scratches

Jeff Schultz

Compliance buyout anyone!? He doesn't deserve to earn 3 million a year, I don't even think he deserves half a million.

Wojtek Wolski

Good signing by GMGM but he couldn't get his career back on track. Good luck in your next attempt bud!

Prospects

Here is my ranking of Caps prospects determined by potential role and how soon they may play

1. Evgeny Kuznetsov - may be here next spring! *superstar alert*

2. Tom Wilsom

3. Orlov

4. Schilling

5. Latta

Thanks for the read and tell me what you think about my evaluations and my top 5 prospects!

Now that almost every Cap is clicking on all cylinders, I thought it would be the time to ask the Japers' Rink community what they think about this roster and our future roster. Let's get into it!

The First Line

The Second Line

The Third Line

This one will be short and sweet, Matty P's playmaking ability, combined with Fehr's strength, and Chimmer's speed provides us with a dynamic 3rd line.

The Forth Line

http://video.capitals.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlg=20122013,2,193 (Just click on Beagle's highlight)

Defense

The Carlson/Erskine Line

The Alzner/Green Line

The Hillen/Oleksy Line

Holtby

Injured Players

Brooks Laich

Joel Ward

Scratches

Jeff Schultz

Compliance buyout anyone!? He doesn't deserve to earn 3 million a year, I don't even think he deserves half a million.

Wojtek Wolski

Good signing by GMGM but he couldn't get his career back on track. Good luck in your next attempt bud!

Prospects

Here is my ranking of Caps prospects determined by potential role and how soon they may play

1. Evgeny Kuznetsov - may be here next spring! *superstar alert*

2. Tom Wilsom

3. Orlov

4. Schilling

5. Latta

Thanks for the read and tell me what you think about my evaluations and my top 5 prospects!

Poll

Who do you think will be the winger for the Ovechkin Backstrom line?

Evgeny Kuznetsov

18 votes

Marcus Johansson

14 votes

Troy Brouwer

1 votes

Someone Else

5 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

Japers' Rink Image Suppressor

2013-04-11T16:44:55Z

Recently some respected people (sk84fun_dc, fat_daddyo, etc.) have been complaining (legitimately, mind you) about the amount of images in the comments. Especially on large threads, this can substantially weigh down the page load and make it an unpleasant user experience for those of us on slower computers (corporate/government-mandated or otherwise). As someone who would hate to lose their valuable input for a stupid reason, I got to work.

To that end, I wrote a Greasemonkey script to help alleviate this problem. It monitors AJAX refreshes (new comments) and hides any image in the comment body and replaces it with a “Click here to show image” link. Clicking that link will, shockingly, show the image.

There are some downsides:

It still has to load all the images the first time, but I’m working on that. If you load the clips early in the day, it will be the fastest, as it will intercept any new images as they’re posted.
It only works on Japers’ Rink right now, but I’ll expand it to the full list of SB Nation sites when I get a chance.

Just thought I’d post it now so anyone who is interested can use it while I continue development. If you have requests, feel free to list them below or send me an email.

Before

After

TL;DR

This script speeds up pages:

Japers’ Rink Image Suppressor

Obligatory warning about installing user scripts, but you can trust that I am a long-time member of the rink with a vested interest in maintaining my good standing, plus the code is available for anyone to verify

More detailed instructions about installing user scripts

Greasemonkey — A Firefox plugin for installing user scripts

TamperMonkey — A Chrome Extension for loading Greasemonkey Scripts

There are some downsides:

It still has to load all the images the first time, but I’m working on that. If you load the clips early in the day, it will be the fastest, as it will intercept any new images as they’re posted.
It only works on Japers’ Rink right now, but I’ll expand it to the full list of SB Nation sites when I get a chance.

Just thought I’d post it now so anyone who is interested can use it while I continue development. If you have requests, feel free to list them below or send me an email.

Before

After

TL;DR

This script speeds up pages:

Japers’ Rink Image Suppressor

More detailed instructions about installing user scripts

Greasemonkey — A Firefox plugin for installing user scripts

TamperMonkey — A Chrome Extension for loading Greasemonkey Scripts

Evgeny Kuznetsov and CapsFans' attitude to him

2013-04-08T11:36:12Z

I’ll start with small introduction. I live in Russia, in Chelyabinsk – the city, where Evgeny Kuznetsov plays. At the same time, I’m working as a journalist and my specialization is foreign press and fans’ opinion. That’s why I want to know what you think about rising Russian star.

First of all, does anyone follow him at KHL? Maybe, somebody even watches KHL playoffs and final against former Ovi team “Dynamo”.

Secondly, what reputation does he have among Capitals fans? For example, I often read comments at the blog Russian Machine Nevere Breaks, and there are more than enough bad and aggressive comments towards Kuznetsov. Is the general picture the same?

Thirdly, recently Washington acquired Martin Erat and gave up Filip Forsberg. Before that George McPhee gave really big interview on prospects: Forsberg and Kuznetsov. Can you compare them? Who do you think is better? Besides, would you trade Kuz to Nashville instead of Forsberg?

Finally, do you believe that he will come to Washington for 2014-2015 season? Has your attitude towards Russians changed? And what can you say about Russian factor?

You are welcome, and I will be really happy to read your responses.

Some "quick" thoughts on Nate Schmidt

2013-04-07T01:05:41Z

Hello Japers' Rink readers. My name is Nathan Wells and I'm a college hockey writer for Western College Hockey here on the SB Nation network and College Hockey News. Although I cover the WCHA in general, the team I see the most is the University of Minnesota and figured I'd give insight on newly signed free agent Nate Schmidt.

Nate has had an interesting run to the pro level. Despite having one of the more memorable goals in the Minnesota State HS Tourney (Schmidt went end to end and scored as he was tripped), he spent time in the USHL before getting to Minnesota. Once there he struggled his freshman year to get playing time and even spent a couple games as a forward.

Since then, he's grown a lot over the past two years.

As a sophomore, Schmidt broke out for 41 points and found his groove as a puck moving defenseman. This year he solidified his positioning defensively while scoring 32 points (9G-23A) and being a part of Minnesota's second straight WCHA regular season title. He also became more vocal and energetic (Nate is a very interesting person to talk to postgame).

For all the offense, it's how he plays that makes him one of the premier defensemen in college hockey. Schmidt rarely pinches despite having the green light; preferring to set up his forwards. This especially is the case on the power play, which Nate has quarterbacked the top unit the past two seasons.

Still, Schmidt is more than capable of using his slap shot. He doesn't rely on it like other blue liners but has taken more shots this year than last. When he unleashes it is a bomb.

Nate's weakest part of his game is on the defensive end when he tries to physical or use his size. He is a smaller defenseman at 6'0", 195 lbs and plays even smaller. He's grown a lot on the defensive side the last two years, spending much of this year paired with freshman Brady Skjei (the New York Rangers' 2012 first round pick), and compensated well when Skjei struggled.

At the same time, Minnesota's aggressiveness and speed allow the Gophers blue line to get away with more than most. The Gophers don't face as many shots and they were out-shot 3 times all season. When they do and he tries to get physical it can be ugly.

Overall, I think Schmidt is a solid pickup by the Capitals. He's not a game-changer - after all, we're talking about an undrafted college free agent - by any means but is a solid offensive defenseman. Nate can be that on the power play yet even playing 5x5 he is rarely caught of position with great vision. How far he goes depends on if he can further develop (can see him stuck in the AHL) but regardless, there is upside with Schmidt.

Hopefully that answers any questions you have about Nate Schmidt. If it doesn't feel free to ask in the comments or tweet me @gopherstate. I'm usually good at getting back

Since then, he's grown a lot over the past two years.

Still, Schmidt is more than capable of using his slap shot. He doesn't rely on it like other blue liners but has taken more shots this year than last. When he unleashes it is a bomb.

Hopefully that answers any questions you have about Nate Schmidt. If it doesn't feel free to ask in the comments or tweet me @gopherstate. I'm usually good at getting back