In the first two parts of this comparison of this year’s edition of the Washington Capitals to last year’s edition through the first 56 games of the schedule, we looked at records and team-wide statistics. The last part looks at the two clubs at the player level.
First, there is the cohort of players who played for both clubs in this part of the schedule. There are 18 skaters in this group:
By itself, the fact that there are 18 skaters in this group, nine of whom played in more than 50 games for the Caps in each season at this point of the schedule, speaks to the stability of the roster. And two of the players who did not play that many would lend some more weight to the notion of roster stability.
Last season, Brooks Orpik and Jay Beagle appeared in just 16 and 36 games, respectively, through the first 56 games of the schedule due to injuries. So far this season, the pair has missed just one game between them (Beagle). What it means is that the 18-skater cohort has played a total of 25 more man-games as a group than the same cohort played last season.
The surprising part about this group is in its year-to-year changes in production. There have not been many. Despite 25 more man-games played by the cohort, they have three fewer goals scored as a group (160) than they had last season (163). That is more than explained away by the fact that Alex Ovechkin has 11 fewer goals at the 56-game mark this season (26) than he had at the same point last season (37). There are players such as T.J. Oshie (up seven goals, year-to-year), Marcus Johansson (up five), and Jay Beagle (up five) who have improved on their 2015-2016 numbers.
Then there is the cohort of newcomers, those who skated for the Caps this year but not last, compared to the outgoing group who appeared in the first 56 games this season but have moved on or otherwise not played. There is where the difference in offense lies. Here is last year’s cohort of outgoing players:
This group accounted for a total of 202 man-games played through the first 56 games of last season and produced a total of 21 goals, 16 of them coming from Chimera. It is also worth noting that among those 11 players, only two – Aaron Ness (plus-4) and Jason Chimera (plus-5) were “plus” players on the plus-minus scale. It was not a group that, as a group, was especially productive. Compare these results with the cohort of newcomers. That group includes the following:
As a group, these six players account for 177 man-games through 56 games of the schedule. They have combined for 31 goals, ten more than last year’s outgoing cohort in 25 fewer man-games. Every one of them, except for Sanford, is a “plus” player with Connolly (plus-19), Winnik (plus-14), and Eller (plus-14) being better than plus-10. It is no small matter that Connolly, Winnik, and Eller have bolstered the bottom-six forward group and made them regular and valuable contributors through the first 56 games of the season.
About those lines. Hockey is a fluid game, and substitutions on the fly along with coach’s discretion make for what at times are blurry distinctions among forward lines. But sites such as Corsica.hockey do complie information on “combos” that can serve to allow for comparisons. Using their information on those forward combinations that have had the most ice time at 5-on-5, a working definition of what constitutes a “line,” we can compare the production of nominal lines from year to year. In 2015-2016, those lines might roll out as:
You’ve notice that the third line is blank. There is a reason for that. If you look at the forward combinations the Caps employed last season, Lines 1, 2, and 4 depicted above led the team in 5-on-5 ice time played together. Perhaps you think of that “Line 4” as a third line, give that they had the third most amount of ice time as a group. But the point is that after those three relatively stable lines, things get jumbled in a hurry. You had Marcus Johansson and a cast of many, which included Michael Latta, Paul Carey, Zach Sill, Brooks Laich, Chris Brown, Sean Collins, Chandler Stephenson, Stan Galiev, and Mike Richards who would play among the bottom six, perhaps pushing Beagle of Chimera into third line duty. Washington employed no fewer than 42 different forward line combinations over the full 2015-2016 season (according to Corsica.hockey, the source for all the time-related numbers here).
Compare that to the 2016-2017 versions of the forward lines, which might roll out as:
These have been much more stable lines than those of the previous season, particularly in the bottom six. The nominal fourth line is second among the line combinations in 5-on-5 time together (278 minutes at 5-on-5) than any other line, and the four lines depicted above are the top four in total 5-on-5 ice time spent together:
That Line 3 has as few minutes together as it does is explained by the early season audition for the right wing on that line, one that has apparently been won by Brett Connolly.
It would hard to overstate the importance of stability on that third line that is stable precisely because of its production. Consider “Marcus Johansson and a Cast of Many” in 2015-2016. That is the collection of forwards identified outside the Lines 1, 2, and 4 above. As a group, they accounted for just 20 goals in 196 man-games over the first 56 games of the schedule, and Johansson had 14 of those. The group was a combined plus-1. Now, forward to this season. The third line of Burakovsky, Eller, and Connolly has 33 goals in 149 man-games, and is plus-48.
And, what the stability of the third line has done is contributed to stability and a comfortable role for the fourth line of Winnik, Beagle, and Wilson that has 22 goals in 157 man-games and is a combined plus-45, compared to last year’s fourth line of Chimera, Beagle, and Wilson that had 27 goals in 148 man-games but was just plus-12 as a group.
The filling out of the third and fourth lines has relieved pressure on the top two lines, whose production looks a lot like last season’s. Last year’s top line of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie had 70 goals in 163 man-games and was plus-55 through 56 games. The same line this season has 66 goals in 159 man-games and is plus-49. Last year’s second line of Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, and Williams had 47 goals in 165 man-games and was plus-55 at this point of the season. This year’s second line of Johansson, Kuznetsov, and Williams has 49 goals in 167 man-games and is a combined plus-49.
And just a final note about those plus-minus numbers. That is really tight spread among the four lines in terms of combined plus-minus this season: Line 1 is plus-49, Line 2 is plus-49, Line 3 is plus-48, and Line 4 is plus-45. The only player among the 12 without a plus-minus in double digits is Ovechkin (plus-8). If plus-minus is a number with limited utility, it does indicate here that stunning balance and depth in production among the forward lines this season.
The comparisons of defensemen across the years is not as interesting as that of the forwards. The one thing that jumps out is that this year the Caps have had to dress only seven defensemen. Five defensemen have appeared in 50 or more games, three of them (Brooks Orpik, Dmitry Orlov, and Karl Alzner) appearing in all 56 contests, and Nate Schmidt has been in 49 contests. What it has meant is that the seventh defenseman – Taylor Chorney – has had to dress for just 14 games so far this season, in part to step in when John Carlson missed six games to injury and as a substitute for Schmidt in several games.
Compare that to last season when the Caps dressed ten defensemen through 56 games. Brooks Orpik missed 40 of the first 56 games, and Carlson missed a dozen of those games. It required the services of Chorney (45 games), Aaron Ness (eight games), Connor Carrick (three), and Ryan Stanton (one) to fill in. That quartet had no goals and a total of ten assists in 57 man-games, although they did finish a combined plus-12 to that point in the schedule.
It would hard to say that the defense has been as stable as the forwards this season in terms of pair sharing ice time. And it is a different sort of “stability” than that which the Caps had last year on the back line. In 2015-2016, the Matt Niskanen-Karl Alzner pair shared the most 5-on-5 minutes over the full season, more than twice as many (1,279) as the pair with the next highest time spent together, John Carlson and Nate Schmidt (573, numbers from Corsica.hockey). This season, that dominant pair in ice time is the Brooks Orpik/Nate Schmidt pair (510 minutes), but that dominance is odd in a way. The Orpik/Schmidt pair might be regarded as the regular third pairing. The next two pairings in ice time rankings each include Matt Niskanen, who has spent 418 minutes with Kasrl Alzner and another 414 minutes with Dmitry Orlov. Each of the two pairings after that include John Carlson, who has spent 363 minutes with Orlov and 358 minutes with Alzner. There is a fair amount of shuffling in the top two pairs, less so in that third pairing.
Production-wise, last year’s blue line cohort and this year’s don’t differ all that much, save for one number. In 336 man-games played by last year’s group through 56 games, the ten defensemen dressing for the Caps combined for 20 goals and 99 assists. This year’s group of seven defensemen has 19 goals and 107 points in 336 man-games. The difference is in the shots on goal. This year’s group recorded 486 shots on goal among the seven defensemen, while last year’s ten defensemen had 423 shots on goal.
Even though six of the seven defensemen have goals on this year’s record, they might be a bit of a snake-bit bunch, compared to last year’s group, the 3.9 percent shooting having fallen off from the 4.7 percent recorded last season. Then again, the defensemen who have suffered most in their shooting percentages (Brooks Orpik has no goals on 58 shots on goal, while Nate Schmidt is 1.9 percent on 52 shots) have never been particularly efficient. Orpik is a 2.5 percent shooter over his career, while Schmidt is 2.8 percent. What they have had some talent for is getting shots to the net. Both are averaging more than one shot per game on goal, and Orpiks 1.07 shots per game is the highest of his career. Neither will be confused with Paul Coffey, though.
Two words come to mind with respect to the goaltenders comparing this year to last: “consistent” and “better.” Sure, Braden Holtby is not on a pace to challenge the all-time season wins record he tied with 48 wins last season, but his save percentage of .926 is virtually identical to the .925 he posted through 56 games last season. His goals against average is down, from 2.15 to 2.02, as a product of fewer shots faced (27.4 per 60 minutes this year versus 28.8 per 60 minutes last season).
The improvement has been in Philipp Grubauer’s game. He has played more minutes this year (850 compared to 703, allowing Holtby to shoulder a lighter load), his save percentage is up (from .925 to .931), and his goal against is down (from 2.13 top 1.98). He is doing it despite having a marginally higher shot load this season (28.8 per 60 minutes compared to 28.6 per 60 minutes last season).
Drilling down a bit further, both Holtby and Grubauer have improved at even strength. Holtby’s even strength save percentage is up from .932 through 56 games last season to .938 so far this season. It is good for second in the league among goalies with at least 20 games played. Grubauer has been better still, his even strength save percentage jumping form .929 at this point last season to .940 this year. If there has been a concern, it is Holtby’s save percentage when the Caps are shorthanded. It has dropped from .885 last season at this point to .836 this season. That number is 43rd of 47 goalies appearing in 20 or more games.
In looking at the records, the team-wide numbers, and individual player performance over the last two seasons, the 2015-2016 teams are comparable at the highest level – wins and losses. But the deeper one digs, the more one gets the sense that this club is more sturdily built. It has superior depth and balance. It has had very good luck this year, health-wise (24 skaters dressing this season versus 29 at this point last season), but even that could be a management outcome, one born of the depth and balance that allows the team to spread ice time evenly in better defined roles, particularly among the bottom six forwards. In that context, the regular season does matter, a six month process of establishing roles, balance, depth, and defining who will be depended on and how to carry the fight to the postseason.
In that respect, you have to smile at the job Brian MacLellan and his team has done in putting this year’s team together, and the job Barry Trotz and his staff have done in leading them on the ice. And the players deserve credit, too. They appear to have recognized and embraced their roles to the point where one can rely on each player to fill his role productively and successfully on a game-t0-game basis.
If you are inclined to be hopeful, and that is always a precious commodity in a fan base that has had so many hopes dashed so many times over the years, you could say with a lot of confidence that this club is better positioned than any in the history of the franchise for a deep postseason run.