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2015-16 Rink Wrap: Nate Schmidt

Japers’ Rink Player Card (click for a hi-res version, and a glossary of terms used in this post can be found here; data via NHL.com, war-on-ice.com, General Fanager and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com):

Schmidt’s Season, Game-by-Game (via HockeyViz, explained here):

Schmidt’s HERO Chart (via Own The Puck):

Schmidt and His Defensive Partners:

Schmidt’s 5v5 Teammates and Competition (via HockeyViz, explained here):

Schmidt’s 5v5 Usage:

Schmidt’s With-or-Without You (via HockeyViz, explained here):

Schmidt’s Rolling Shot-Attempt (Corsi) -For Percentage:

Schmidt’s Three Seasons (via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com):

Key Stat: Nate Schmidt was the Capitals‘ most disciplined defenseman. Over the course of the entire season, Schmidt took just three minor penalties. That’s one less than Mike Weber, despite playing 62 more games than the former Sabre with Washington. Schmidt also drew 14 penalites, more than every Capitals defensemen except for Dmitry Orlov.

Interesting Stat: Schmidt is the first un-drafted defenseman that Capitals have had that played at least 70 games in a single season since Brian Pothier in the 2006-07 campaign.

The Good: Early on in the season, Schmidt and Orlov teamed up as a studly third pairing. As you can see in the above charts, Schmidt and Orlov managed a 57.6 Corsi For percentage in 366.1 minutes of 5v5 time.

Part of that great deal of success earned Schmidt a consistent spot on the starting lineup for the first time in his professional career. Schmidt’s 72 games this season was 33 more than last year, and his 16 total points quadrupled his prior year totals.

Schmidt was also entrusted with time on the Capitals’ penalty kill, a crew that finished second in the League. His 1.1 minutes per game wasn’t a gargantuan amount, but Schmidt saw virtually no time on the penalty kill just last season.

Schmidt’s reliable play on the third pairing earned him some top four time when both Brooks Orpik and John Carlson went down with longterm injuries.

The Bad: …Yeah, remember when you just read the fact that Schmidt’s stellar play on the third pairing earned him time in the top four? Well, his top four time didn’t roll so smoothly. With Carlson, the two combined for a 48.9 Corsi For percentage. And while Carlson’s Corsi For percentages generally won’t blow you out of the water, it may have been Schmidt holding Carlson back.

Schmidt tailed off dramatically from the beginning of March to the end of the season. In fact, according to Corsica, Schmidt was cruising along at the beginning March with roughly a 53 Corsi For percentage. By April, that number rolled down to 48 percent, and it never really recovered in time for the playoffs.

That made Schmidt replaceable, and he was a healthy scratch on several occasions in favor of Weber and Taylor Chorney.

Possession wasn’t the only issue Schmidt dealt with this season. While he did set a career high in points, Schmidt’s offensive season could technically be labeled as underwhelming. At even strength this season, Schmidt’s shooting percentage was a whooping 1.4 percent, half of what it was just last season and four times less than his rookie season. Schmidt isn’t known as a goal scorer, but he may actually be an elite-level passer, and occasionally showed brilliance with his vision. Given that, he probably should have finished with more than 14 assists this season, especially considering his initial favored matchups (only Orlov and Chorney saw more offensive zone starts than Schmidt with at least 20 games played), and should have finished better than his 2.24 on-ice goals for per 60 suggests, ahead of only primarily defensive pairing Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen.

The GIF/Video:

The Vote: Rate Schmidt below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season – if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Discussion: Do you think Schmidt has what it takes to be a top four defenseman in the NHL? Or would you prefer to see 88 and 9 rekindle their relationship? What would it take for you to give him a “10” next year?

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