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Capital Ups and Downs: At the All-Star Break

Your weekly at-the-All-Star break look at individual Washington Capitals‘ ups and downs:

Goalies Trend Notes
Braden Holtby https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 With a 22-9-8/2.26/.921 line, Holtby ranks 8th in the League in wins, and 7th in goals against average and 8th in save percentage (minimum 20 games played). He’s also 4th on the circuit in shutouts, 2nd in minutes played and 3rd in shots-faced. Like just about any starter, Holtby has had his ups (and they’ve been high) and downs (and they’ve been low), but on the whole he’s outperformed expectations so far… even the high ones we have for him.
Justin Peters https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217737/down.png?w=640 Brought in during the summer to back-up Holtby, Peters hasn’t played well enough to give Holtby much rest at all. Three times since the beginning of November, Holtby has played both games of a back-to-back set, for example, while Peters has compiled an ugly 2-4-1/3.52/.864 mark (and the second-worst five-on-five save percentage in the League) in just eight appearances, including nary a one from November 28 through January 16. It is worth noting that five of Peters’ seven starts came on the back-end of games on consecutive nights for the Caps, but that mitigating factor only carries so much water. Expectations weren’t terribly high coming in… but he’s fallen well short of meeting them.
Defensemen
Karl Alzner https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 Already at a career-high for goals (three), Alzner should top his previous best in points (18) as well, as he currently has 11. More importantly, Alzner is on the right side of 50% in five-on-five Corsi for the first time since 2010-11 (though he’s slightly negative in Relative CF%), and at 50% in five-on-five Goals-For percentage for the first time since 2011-12. A slightly reduced role is helping those numbers along, as Alzner (who is doing some of his best work on the penalty kill) seems to be a good fit in that second pairing alongside Matt Niskanen.
John Carlson https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 Offensively, Carlson is well on his way to setting new career marks in assists and points, and he’s doing it largely at even-strength, where he ranks second to Mark Giordano in even-strength points and first in even-strength assists among NHL defenders. He’s playing big minutes in all situations (only seven other rearguards are averaging 18 even-strength, one power-play and three shorthanded a night), and has a respectable possession stats, despite being partnered with noted possession-anchor Brooks Orpik for most of his ice time (just look at what he’s been able to do when not skating with Orpik).
John Erskine https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/538577/ow.png?w=640 Underwent neck surgery in October and doesn’t sound like he’s close to returning… not that there’s necessarily anything for him to return to, as even a healthy Erskine would be facing an uphill battle for playing time on this Caps blueline.
Mike Green https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 Playing third-pair minutes, staying (relatively) healthy and quarterbacking the still-awesome Caps power play, Green is having his best year since 2009-10, his last Norris Finalist season. Unfortunately for Green (and the Caps), his two best partner options (Dmitry Orlov and Nate Schmidt) are both on the shelf, leaving Jack Hillen to slot into that sixth defenseman role and probably keep the pending unrestricted free agent Green’s five-on-five minutes (and, perhaps, price tag) down a bit.
Jack Hillen https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 When skating with Hillen at five-on-five, Mike Green’s Corsi-For percentage is just 48.5, a number which rises to 56.1 when Green has another partner, which gives you some idea of the drop-off from Nate Schmidt to Hillen. Hillen has been given relatively easy minutes, but hasn’t done much with them at all, and while he’s not the worst option as a reserve defenseman getting the occasional game here or there, having him playing as much as he has over the last month isn’t ideal.
Matt Niskanen https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 Niskanen’s offense is dramatically down from last season, but that was to be expected – his power-play ice time has dropped by more than 60%. But his assist, point and shot rates are all down at five-a-side as well, and he’s still looking for his first even-strength goal of the season (along with teammate Brooks Orpik, Niskanen is one of just six skaters with 785 minutes of five-on-five ice time without a single tally). That said, Niskanen has been solid in the second-pair and quite good on the penalty kill.
Dmitry Orlov https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/538577/ow.png?w=640 Eight months after wrist surgery, Orlov seems no closer, physically, to returning to action. At this point, it sure looks as 2014-15 will be a lost season for the young Russian rearguard.
Brooks Orpik https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 Debates over the value (or even presence) of intangibles aside, Orpik has been as advertised – a physical, shot-blocking presence playing the hard minutes at evens and shorthanded and playing a lot of them. No Cap skater has been on the ice for more goals-against (only Jack Johnson and Dion Phaneuf have, League-wide), but Orpik isn’t drowning in his minutes and probably deserves a bit better than his numbers would indicate – he’s got a 49.2 five-on-five Corsi percentage, but is only getting .912 goaltending behind him at fives, far lower than any other blueliner on the team and well below the team’s .926 five-on-five mark when he’s off the ice.
Nate Schmidt https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/538577/ow.png?w=640 Paired mostly with Mike Green, Schmidt was putting up terrific underlying numbers (his 53.2 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage is tops among the team’s defense) before breaking his shoulder blade (ouch) while getting some confidence-building work in down at Hershey. Schmidt’s point-production was surprisingly low before the injury, given his skill, but the 23-year-old’s game was coming along nicely nonetheless. He should be back for the stretch run.
Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 In many ways, Backstrom is the poster boy for meeting expectations – he came into the season with 494 points in 495 games and has 47 points in 46 outings to pace the team so far this season. He’s putting up strong possession numbers while facing the toughest competition, and he’s among the top face-off men in the League. Backstrom will almost certainly top the 20-goal plateau for the first time since 2009-10, and should get some attention for a darkhorse Selke bid. He’s an elite player playing the game at a ridiculously high level… it’s a shame that not everyone realizes it.
Jay Beagle https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 After scoring just six goals in his previous two seasons (and 117 games), Beagle has scored seven in his first 41 games this season. Those seven tallies represent a new career-high, as do his 13 points and six assists (tied). Beagle is also a plus player after six seasons in the red. Realistically, he’s still pretty much a fringe NHLer with fourth-line upside, but it’s hard not to feel happy for a guy who works his tail off and is getting rewarded for it.
Troy Brouwer https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 With a half-dozen extra-man goals, Brouwer continues to fatten up with one of the cushiest jobs in the game – slot man alongside the likes of Backstrom, Green and Ovechkin on the Caps power play. The picture has been a little less rosy at even-strength, as a hot start and flashes of strong play by the second line have been the exception rather than the norm. Brouwer is the only Cap skater to be averaging more than 1:30 on each special teams unit (he’s at 2:54 on the power-play, 2:08 shorthanded) and continues to be surprisingly awesome in the face-off circle, winning 61.9% of his draws. Oh, and he did score a pretty big goal.
Chris Brown Hershey Kiss Icon Played a few relatively nondescript games in October (scoring his only goal of the season against the Devils) and a couple in November, but has spent most of the year in Hershey, where he has 11 goals and six assist in 30 games.
Andre Burakovsky https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 Scored the first goal of the season and has added another five along with a dozen assists in the 36 games since. Currently doing a residency on the top line where he and fellow Swede Nick Backstrom have a 56.1 CF% and 63.6 GF%, Burakovsky has largely excelled when playing with the Caps’ other skilled forwards… and he won’t turn 20 for another two weeks. The future – immediate and long-term – is bright for Burakovsky.
Jason Chimera https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217737/down.png?w=640 What happened to the Ice Cheetah? On the heels of setting a career-high in points last year, Chimera has seen his production, responsibility and ice time plummet, even earning himself a healthy scratch with a bad overtime penalty against the Isles. Chimera has been better of late, but the Caps’ oldest player does appear to be nearing the end of the line.
Eric Fehr https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 In his second season as a wing-turned-center, Fehr has bounced around a bit (with stints in the press box and the top line and nearly everywhere in between) but seems to have landed in a good spot centering the third line. An unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, Fehr will likely challenge his career highs in goals (he needs seven to tie) and points (17 to tie), and has been one of the team’s more reliable (and certainly versatile) forwards.
Marcus Johansson https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 In two seasons playing for Adam Oates, Johansson spent most of his time on the top line and yet managed only five even-strength goals total in 114 games. In 46 games under Barry Trotz, Johansson already has 11 even-strength markers, despite a second-line role and fewer minutes. The difference? He’s shooting the puck. Johansson’s shots-on-goal are up more than 36% per game over last season and he should easily shatter his single-season goal and shots marks. The rest of his game is coming along as well, though he and his linemates need to find a way to bring a bit more consistency from that second trio of forwards.
Evgeny Kuznetsov https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217737/down.png?w=640 With just eight even-strength points on the season in 44 games, it’s hard not to be disappointed with Kuznetsov’s progress so far, especially considering that those eight even-strength points are just two more than he had in his 17-game debut at the end of last season (two goals in each campaign). The underlying numbers are more promising, and he is still adjusting to both North America and the center position, but Kuznetsov doesn’t look to be the answer at second-line center, at least not yet.
Brooks Laich https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 Finally healthy (yeah, we know), Laich has performed well as the left wing on an effective tough-minutes trio with Fehr and Joel Ward and is getting all of the shorthanded minutes he can handle. More points would be nice, of course, but if the Caps can continue to outscore the opposition while he’s on the ice, he’s doing his job.
Michael Latta https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 Has played just once since the Winter Classic and might be better served seeing an increased workload in Hershey at this point with the bottom-six in D.C. pretty firmly established, but Latta hasn’t looked out of place in the minutes he’s gotten at the NHL level, and his five fighting majors are second-most on the team.
Liam O’Brien Hershey Kiss Icon Speaking of fighters, O’Brien was the big surprise out of training camp when he made the team and hung around until Thanksgiving, playing 13 games, notching a goal and an assist and getting in three scraps, all while posting solid possession numbers. Not bad for an undrafted kid out of the Q.
Alex Ovechkin https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217733/up.png?w=640 At the All-Star break, Ovechkin finds himself sitting in third in the League in goals, one tally off the pace as he attempts to defend his two-consecutive Richard trophies. But it’s no longer all about goals for Ovechkin (not like it ever was, but narrative and such), as the Caps’ captain has worked on rounding out his game to the tune of a team-best Relative CF% and a plus-12 rating (again, narrative and such). And Ovi’s just getting warmed up – with five goals in his last three games and 11 in his last 11, he might just be ready to tear through the second half of the season. Full steam ahead.
Aaron Volpatti https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/538577/ow.png?w=640 It sounds as if Volpatti is ready to rejoin the team… but that the feeling isn’t necessarily mutual. Barring an injury, it’s hard to see that situation changing.
Joel Ward https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217757/dash.png?w=640 Split from his familiar opposite winger Chimera for much of the season, Ward has held onto the third-line right wing spot and continues to score goals (albeit not quite at last year’s torrid pace). With the Caps poised to return to the playoffs after a year off, Ward is no doubt licking his chops at returning to the stage where he’s done some of his best work.
Tom Wilson https://i0.wp.com/assets.sbnation.com/assets/217737/down.png?w=640 After a somewhat trying rookie season in which he seldom found his way onto the scoresheet for anything other than fighting and spent the majority of his time on the fourth line, Wilson… is seldom finding his way onto the scoresheet for anything other than fighting and is now spending the majority of his time on the fourth line. Wilson had an extended audition on the top line with mixed results, but that he couldn’t hold onto that gig has to be a disappointment to Wilson, Trotz and fans.

Advanced stats and the year-to-date five-on-five usage chart below via war-on-ice.com:

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