When Barry Trotz returned to Nashville last Friday it was quite the spectacle, and for good reason, given his legacy in that town. Former Preds beat writer for The Tennessean, Josh Cooper, now of Puck Daddy, wrote a fantastic piece about the quality of individual and coach that the Capitals have in Barry Trotz, and it’s well worth your time, so do check it out. And while the piece was glowing, overall, one unflattering passage stood out:
Is Trotz a great coach? No, at least not yet. He indeed has trouble developing young forwards. His inability to get past the postseason’s second round and his clashes with [Alexander] Radulov remain dark marks for him.
We’ll fret about that whole “getting past the second round” part later (how does May sound?), and deal with interpersonal conflicts if and when they arise. But “trouble developing young forwards” is an item of concern presently, what with the Caps giving sweaters to a trio of under-23-year-olds up front on a nightly basis in Evgeny Kuznetsov (22), Tom Wilson (20) and Andre Burakovsky (19).
So how have Trotz and first-year GM Brian MacLellan managed and utilized their young players so far this year? And more importantly, how are they progressing? It matters in the long-term, of course, but it also matters in the short-term – as if it wasn’t hard enough to adjust to life in the National Hockey League already, their progression (along with that of 23-year-old Michael Latta) is likely to be the determining factor in whether MacLellan looks to make any roster moves before the rapidly nearing trade deadline (no pressure, kids!):
MacLellan on determining moves based on 65, 43, 92 and 46: “Most of our decisions will be made off the performance off those four guys.”
— Alex Prewitt (@alex_prewitt) January 20, 2015
So let’s start by looking at some of the pertinent events of the 2014-2015 season with respect to the players in question (and, as has been the case in eight of the last nine games, Latta is going to sit this one out):
| Date | Event |
| May 26th | In his introductory press conference MacLellan makes a point to emphasize the importance of the team’s prospects:
“MacLellan brought up the need for the Capitals to focus on developing young players multiple times and how he expects prospects that are brought into the organization to be difference makers and provide depth. In discussing some of Washington’s younger players, he shared some examples of situations that he thought could have been handled differently.” |
| July 2nd | Tom Wilson suffers “mysterious” ankle injury. |
| July 10th | Capitals move Andre Burakovsky to center at development camp. |
| September 25th | Burakovsky, Kuznetsov and Marcus Johansson compete for the second-line center position at training camp. |
| September 30th | While Kuznetsov struggles to establish himself during the pre-season, Burakovsky asserts himself as the likely starter on the second line. |
| October 9th | Burakovsky scores in NHL debut skating on the second line between Troy Brouwer and Johansson. Kuznetsov starts the year on the fourth line with Chris Brown and Liam O’Brien. Wilson continues to rehabilitate his ankle. |
| October 13th | Wilson skates with the team, prepares for a rehabilitation stint in Hershey |
| October 25th | Kuznetsov skates on the third line with Jay Beagle and Jason Chimera. |
| October 29th | Tom Wilson returns to the lineup on the fourth line. Burakovsky centers Joel Ward and Alexander Ovechkin on the team’s first forward unit. |
| November 2nd | Burakovsky is moved down to the third line with Eric Fehr and Chimera while Kuznetsov takes over centering the second line. |
| November 4th | In his fourth game back from injury, Tom Wilson plays on the right side of Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, a line that Trotz had apparently envisioned all the way back in development camp. |
| November 8th | Kuznetsov is a healthy scratch for the first time as an NHLer. |
| November 13th | Barry Trotz declares that he wants to build the fourth line around Kuznetsov |
| November 28th | Burakovsky makes a tiny huge mistake. |
| December 15th | Capitals elect to keep Burakovsky with the team rather than having him play at the World Junior Championships. |
| December 19th | After being a healthy scratch on numerous occasions the the Capitals send Burakovsky to Hershey to get some playing time. |
| December 22nd | Capitals recall Burakovsky |
| December 23rd | Tom Wilson is a healthy scratch for the first time in his NHL career. |
| January 4th | Burakovsky moves to top line right wing while Kuznetsov retains his hold on the second-line center position. Wilson plays his third consecutive game on the fourth line. |
| January 5th | Capitals concede they may have been too ambitious in converting both Kuznetsov and Burakovsky into centers simultaneously. |
There has been a moderate (to-be-expected) level of discord surrounding how the Caps have handled their younger players so far this year, but that has mostly died down due to recent roster stability – since January 4th, the Capitals have made almost no changes in their forward line combinations, with Kuznetsov and Burakovsky holding down top-six roles. But, as noted above, that hasn’t always been the case this season. If we look at the year as a whole, each of the three young forwards has spent extended time in the top six and done duty on the fourth line. Rather than look at minutes on each line, here’s a look at the number of times each player has started a game on a given line:
| Player | First Line | Second Line | Third Line | Fourth Line |
| Burakovsky | 11 | 18 | 2 | 6 |
| Kuznetsov | 0 | 26 | 4 | 13 |
| Wilson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Why is Wilson only seeing time on the first and fourth lines? Wilson’s skill set certainly seems better-suited for the fourth line than either Burakovsky’s or Kuznetsov’s, but it still seems odd that Wilson hasn’t been given a shot somewhere in the middle. Kuznetsov has been the Capitals’ second line center for 21-straight games and Burakovsky’s streak of consecutive starts on the top line has now reached nine (too bad for him – a tenth would’ve been that one they played outside).
We’ll come back and put some numbers to what those line assignments mean, but first, here’s a look at the three players during all-situations play:
Burakovsky is afforded the most ice time with the best teammates among the three (remember he has only spent eight games not on either the first or second lines), but this does include power-play time, and he and Kuznetsov see just over a minute there per game; Wilson gets no extra-man time (keep that in mind as we take a look at the all situation point totals). Despite that, Wilson still averages more ice time than Kuznetsov (due primarily to his 21 games on the top line).
As for point production, here you go:
| Player | Even-Strength Goals | Even-Strength Assists | Even-Strength Points | Power-Play Goals | Power-Play Assists | Power-Play Points |
| Burakovsky | 4 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Kuznetsov | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Wilson | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- All of Wilson’s production has come at even strength (eight of his 11 points came while playing with Ovechkin and Backstrom).
- Burakovsky is second on the team in terms of five-on-five point production per 60 minutes of play behind only Nicklas Backstrom. Three of his even-strength points have come alongside Backstrom and Ovechkin.
- Only eight of Kuznetsov’s points have come during five-a-side hockey. Some of that can be attributed to the quality of the teammates he shared the ice with at the start of the season.
Speaking of (and back to) even-strength, here’s a look at the same graphic as above, except just with five-on-five play included:
Sidenote: Goal Differential was included on these graphs solely for descriptive purposes. There are better predictors of future goals (both for and against) than past goals. You can read the most recent examination of those predictors at Hockey Prospectus (from Stephen Burtch)
As you can see Wilson has skated a larger share of the ice time relative to the others if we limit the data to five-on-five situations, due to that lengthy stint on the top line. Note that he and Burakovsky have combined for 32 games up there, and their ice time and quality of teammates reflects that. And while we’re talking teammates… you may be suffering from some graphical overload, but these next charts are cool.
Below are some interactive charts loaded with WOWY data compiled from Hockey Analysis. The first two graphs pertain to our trio of forwards’ play with other forwards, while the second pair are the three youngsters and the Caps’ defensemen. The first graph of each set lays out the percentage of the forwards’ ice time with each respective player on the y-axis; the second graph of each set details the percentage of total shot attempts that are directed towards the oppositions net while that pairing of players is on the ice.
Player data modified so that results of 100% were changed to 0 in order to have a better X-axis. Data obtained 1/20/2015 prior to the Edmonton debacle. To sort through charts select the individual player (Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, or Wilson) at the top of the chart and watch the data change. Neat.
So what are the takeaways here? Well it’s nothing you haven’t seen before. Burakovsky is a pretty strong puck possession player, unless he’s on the ice with the fourth line. Kuznetsov has had trouble maintaining any strong possession numbers even while getting time with better teammates. Last but not least is Wilson, who was part of a pretty strong possession trio on the top line, but he has struggled mightily when away from the big guns.
It’s interesting to look at which defensemen the forwards are sharing their time with. Burakovsky has played with all defensemen pretty evenly, Kuznetsov has played a lot with Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, and Wilson has spent a lot of his time with Brooks Orpik (once again likely due to the number of games he played with Ovechkin… and we know how Orpik needs Ovechkin).
Much of the analysis so far has been a snapshot of where these former first-round picks are today… but how did they get here? Wilson, Kuznetsov, and Burakovsky have each had some ups and downs in their early career. Wilson spent an entire 82-game season playing on Adam Oates‘s fourth line (that’s pretty down), but then in just his fourth game back from injury, was playing with two of the best forwards in hockey… that’s a pretty quick turnaround. Kuznetsov and Burakovsky have not had to deal with as much adversity as Wilson had to his rookie year, but they have both experienced growing pains, including trying to learn the center position on the fly. Below is a graph of each players’ cumulative score adjusted Corsi (%) up to this point in their career. The grey diamond indicates each player’s first game played under Barry Trotz.
It’s worth noting that all three players have been trending in the right direction under Barry Trotz’s tutelage… but you knew that.
Recall way back at the top of this post that there is a lot of pressure on these three young forwards to perform well over the next six weeks (but really for the rest of the season and into the playoffs). So at what level are these guys playing now, and will it be enough for this team moving forward? Here’s our quick assessment (since half of you will have skipped most of this post for this bottom line anyway):
Burakovsky: Burakovsky has been the best Capitals’ rookie this year and probably the club’s best since Backstrom back in 2007-2008. There are only a few Capitals that are better when in possession of the puck than Burakovsky, but his off-the-puck play still needs some work. Since switching back to the wing and joining Ovechkin and Backstrom on the top line Burakovsky’s score adjusted Corsi percentage of 59.7 leads the team. He deserves a longer look at first-line right wing, but isn’t the answer at second-line center for now.
Kuznetsov: Kuznetsov has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly while entering the offensive zone, but his game still needs to improve if the Capitals are going to be legitimate contenders come April. While the numbers indicate Kuznetsov is not shy to shoot the puck, there are times when he has a golden opportunity to score and looks for the extra pass. True contenders are usually built down the middle and Kuznetsov has not yet shown that he can be “the guy” on the team’s second scoring line. Kuznetsov is in the toughest position of any of the young forwards moving forward, and probably will force MacLellan’s hand if he doesn’t show marked improvement in the weeks ahead.
Wilson: Up to this point of the season, Wilson has not really been able to contribute to the team in any really meaningful way (at least tangibly). While on the top line Wilson was the last stop of too many possessions, but has been playing well recently on the fourth line. It’s hard to realistically see him moving up the depth chart for any extended period of time at this point, and it’s quite possible that his development would be better served getting more minutes (including on the power play) in Hershey.
The Capitals have high hopes and expectations for their young group of forwards. And if Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, and Wilson fail to progress and deliver on those expectations, they’ll likely see a bit of a shake-up prior to the trade deadline.