Last Tuesday, all of the teams in the NHL reached at least 20 games played. I felt that it was time to update the Team PDO analysis that I have previously discussed here (at the 5 games played mark) and here (at the 10 games played mark).
The following table shows each team's all-strength PDO as of the conclusion of games on November 20, 2013 sorted highes to lowest.
|Team Name||All Strength
The Washington Capitals have made significant progress up the chart since earlier in the year. In fact, they now hold the highest PDO in the Metro Division. The bad news is that the lost opportunities continue to climb. It is now almost equal to 3 wins at -5.7 standings points. That is the fourth worst showing relative to a team's PDO in the league.
How does the current PDO match up to team history? The following chart shows the Washington Capitals team PDO at the conclusion of each of the last 8 seasons.
Are those good or bad numbers, you ask? Neither. They are pretty mediocre. However, the following chart shows the PDO for the Stanley Cup Champions for each of those years:
|Season||PDO||Team||Standings Pts Delta|
This table shows that it helps to have a PDO greater than 1 (duh!). It also seems to imply that exceeding the expectations of your PDO is also is a benefit (something the Caps are failing to do).
Aside from last year (whose number may be abnormally high due to a shortened season) and the President's Trophy year of 09-10, the Caps have been a consistently mediocre team. We can hope that Adam Oates has found the magic system that has put the team on track to repeat the 09-10 system but the shortened season puts significant doubt into last year's PDO and the current PDO is still well within the boundaries of chance.
How are the division rivals trending in their PDO? The following charts show the PDO trend for each team in the league broken down into divisions.
As one can see, the Caps are currently the only team to exceed the 1 Standard Deviation on the positive side. They are, however, still a significant distance from the 2 SD line which is the cutoff point identifying a PDO as being of interest.
The Atlantic division has a few teams that show some interesting trends:
The Pacific Division
seems to be full of teams with unremarkable PDO values.
And finally, the Central Division
shows us just how impressive the Colorado Avalanche have been thus far. They have maintained a PDO between the 2 SD and 3 SD lines for the entire season. If they are able to stay within those bounds, they The St. Louis Blues have been on top of the pack as well but are still within the 2 SD boundary.
Can we draw any conclusions about the Caps thus far into the season? No. I think more data is necessary to see if the Caps are capable of retaining their current high PDO against the tide of regression. They have not performed outside the norm long enough to show that the PDO they finished last season with is their new norm compared to previous seasons.