FanPost

Team PDO after 20 Games

Last Tuesday, all of the teams in the NHL reached at least 20 games played. I felt that it was time to update the Team PDO analysis that I have previously discussed here (at the 5 games played mark) and here (at the 10 games played mark).

The following table shows each team's all-strength PDO as of the conclusion of games on November 20, 2013 sorted highes to lowest.

Team Name All Strength
PDO
Z-Score Current
Standings Pts
Adjusted
Standings Pts
Expected
Standings Pts
Actual minus
Expected
Expected
After 82GP
Shots
For
Shots
Against
# Games Goals
For
Goals
Against
Shooting
Ratio
Save
Ratio
TORONTO 1.044 2.7898 27 26 31.8 -5.8 124.2 556 754 21 60 48 0.1079 0.9363
COLORADO 1.041 2.5280 30 29.5 29.7 -0.2 121.7 601 639 20 64 42 0.1065 0.9343
BOSTON 1.034 2.1185 29 28.5 29.9 -1.4 116.7 622 625 21 58 37 0.0932 0.9408
PHOENIX 1.022 1.4379 31 30 27.6 2.4 107.9 641 747 21 69 64 0.1076 0.9143
MONTREAL 1.020 1.3051 24 24.5 28.6 -4.1 106.6 663 684 22 57 45 0.0860 0.9342
WASHINGTON 1.018 1.2039 25 22.5 28.2 -5.7 105.2 649 771 22 64 62 0.0986 0.9196
TAMPA BAY 1.018 1.0685 28 25 26.8 -1.8 104.8 577 601 21 63 55 0.1092 0.9085
ST LOUIS 1.017 0.9769 31 31.5 25.4 6.1 104.0 626 500 20 68 46 0.1086 0.9080
SAN JOSE 1.013 0.8071 31 32 25.9 6.1 101.1 759 569 21 71 46 0.0935 0.9192
DALLAS 1.007 0.4408 24 23 23.7 -0.7 97.0 606 657 20 55 55 0.0908 0.9163
OTTAWA 1.005 0.3501 20 21.5 25.7 -4.2 95.6 687 786 22 63 68 0.0917 0.9135
PITTSBURGH 1.003 0.2092 28 27.5 25.3 2.2 94.3 685 551 22 62 48 0.0905 0.9129
MINNESOTA 1.003 0.1693 32 33 26.3 6.7 93.9 651 569 23 59 50 0.0906 0.9121
ANAHEIM 1.002 0.1617 33 33.5 27.4 6.1 93.6 772 653 24 74 61 0.0959 0.9066
LOS ANGELES 1.000 0.0221 31 28.5 24.7 3.8 92.1 705 564 22 59 47 0.0837 0.9167
DETROIT 0.996 0.2644 25 28 23.8 4.2 88.8 662 677 22 54 58 0.0816 0.9143
NEW JERSEY 0.994 0.3714 21 23 22.3 0.7 87.1 536 520 21 46 48 0.0858 0.9077
CHICAGO 0.991 0.5692 32 32.5 22.9 9.6 85.4 771 596 22 76 64 0.0986 0.8926
COLUMBUS 0.989 0.6715 19 19.5 22.6 -3.1 84.1 633 679 22 53 64 0.0837 0.9057
PHILADELPHIA 0.989 0.6606 18 19 20.5 -1.5 83.8 572 606 20 40 49 0.0699 0.9191
WINNIPEG 0.988 0.8347 23 22 23.2 -1.2 82.9 750 736 23 56 64 0.0747 0.9130
VANCOUVER 0.986 0.9280 26 25.5 22.9 2.6 81.5 747 641 23 57 58 0.0763 0.9095
NASHVILLE 0.985 0.9059 22 22.5 20.8 1.7 81.1 596 641 21 48 61 0.0805 0.9048
NY ISLANDERS 0.980 1.2559 19 19 20.8 -1.8 77.5 673 653 22 60 71 0.0892 0.8913
BUFFALO 0.980 1.3257 11 10 21.6 -11.6 76.9 582 824 23 39 72 0.0670 0.9126
NY RANGERS 0.978 1.3597 20 19.5 19.5 0.0 76.0 670 606 21 43 52 0.0642 0.9142
CAROLINA 0.977 1.4124 20 21 19.3 1.7 75.3 610 647 21 39 56 0.0639 0.9134
EDMONTON 0.974 1.6591 14 14 20.5 -6.5 73.0 641 696 23 59 82 0.0920 0.8822
CALGARY 0.972 1.7750 18 19 19.1 -0.1 71.3 632 659 22 59 80 0.0934 0.8786
FLORIDA 0.969 1.9603 16 17 18.5 -1.5 69.0 622 646 22 47 69 0.0756 0.8932

The Washington Capitals have made significant progress up the chart since earlier in the year. In fact, they now hold the highest PDO in the Metro Division. The bad news is that the lost opportunities continue to climb. It is now almost equal to 3 wins at -5.7 standings points. That is the fourth worst showing relative to a team's PDO in the league.

How does the current PDO match up to team history? The following chart shows the Washington Capitals team PDO at the conclusion of each of the last 8 seasons.

Season PDO
12-13 1.024
11-12 1.004
10-11 1.005
09-10 1.027
08-09 0.998
07-08 0.993
06-07 1.001
05-06 0.99

Are those good or bad numbers, you ask? Neither. They are pretty mediocre. However, the following chart shows the PDO for the Stanley Cup Champions for each of those years:

Season PDO Team Standings Pts Delta
12-13 1.023 CHI 10.4
11-12 0.999 LAK 7.5
10-11 1.02 BOS 1.3
09-10 0.995 CHI 21.2
08-09 1.015 PIT -4.2
07-08 0.997 DET 26.5
06-07 1.01 ANA 13.9
05-06 1.009 CAR 12.6

This table shows that it helps to have a PDO greater than 1 (duh!). It also seems to imply that exceeding the expectations of your PDO is also is a benefit (something the Caps are failing to do).

Aside from last year (whose number may be abnormally high due to a shortened season) and the President's Trophy year of 09-10, the Caps have been a consistently mediocre team. We can hope that Adam Oates has found the magic system that has put the team on track to repeat the 09-10 system but the shortened season puts significant doubt into last year's PDO and the current PDO is still well within the boundaries of chance.

How are the division rivals trending in their PDO? The following charts show the PDO trend for each team in the league broken down into divisions.

Metro_boc_11-21-13_medium

via nhlplots.com

As one can see, the Caps are currently the only team to exceed the 1 Standard Deviation on the positive side. They are, however, still a significant distance from the 2 SD line which is the cutoff point identifying a PDO as being of interest.

The Atlantic division has a few teams that show some interesting trends:

Atlantic_boc_11-21-13_medium

via nhlplots.com

Toronto Maple Leafs are well beyond the 2 SD line and the Boston Bruins have been trending that direction recently. Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens are also worth keeping an eye on.

The Pacific Division

Pacific_boc_11-21-13_medium

via nhlplots.com

seems to be full of teams with unremarkable PDO values.

And finally, the Central Division

Central_boc_11-21-13_medium

via nhlplots.com

shows us just how impressive the Colorado Avalanche have been thus far. They have maintained a PDO between the 2 SD and 3 SD lines for the entire season. If they are able to stay within those bounds, they The St. Louis Blues have been on top of the pack as well but are still within the 2 SD boundary.

Can we draw any conclusions about the Caps thus far into the season? No. I think more data is necessary to see if the Caps are capable of retaining their current high PDO against the tide of regression. They have not performed outside the norm long enough to show that the PDO they finished last season with is their new norm compared to previous seasons.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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