FanPost

Caps PDO Starts to Climb but so do Lost Opportunities

This is the first sequel to the look at team PDO and what it can tell us. The first look at team PDO can be found here. Today, I will focus more on the PDO trend of each team.

To start off, let's look at the current PDO for each team in the league.

Team Name All Strength
PDO
Z-Score Current
Standings Pts
Adjusted
Standings Pts
Expected
Standings Pts
Actual minus
Expected
Expected
After 82GP
Shooting
Ratio
Save
Ratio
COLORADO 1.061 2.8066 20 20 18.2 1.8 136.0 0.1054 0.9554
TORONTO 1.058 2.8855 18 17 21.3 -4.3 134.1 0.1232 0.9351
MONTREAL 1.039 1.9536 16 16 19.1 -3.1 120.3 0.0946 0.9446
SAN JOSE 1.039 1.8248 21 21 17.6 3.4 120.1 0.1035 0.9354
BOSTON 1.037 1.5816 14 14 14.5 -0.5 118.8 0.0974 0.9397
ST LOUIS 1.033 1.3783 16 16.5 14.1 2.4 115.7 0.1217 0.9111
TAMPA BAY 1.021 0.9319 16 14 15.7 -1.7 107.0 0.1203 0.9006
PHOENIX 1.016 0.8025 18 19 16.4 2.6 103.2 0.1039 0.9118
OTTAWA 1.008 0.3937 10 10.5 14.3 -3.8 97.5 0.0911 0.9167
NY ISLANDERS 1.006 0.2926 11 12 14.1 -2.1 96.4 0.1068 0.8995
COLUMBUS 1.006 0.2598 10 9.5 12.9 -3.4 95.9 0.0885 0.9171
ANAHEIM 1.001 0.0583 20 19 14.7 4.3 92.7 0.0901 0.9111
PITTSBURGH 1.000 0.0177 16 15.5 13.4 2.1 91.6 0.0944 0.9052
WASHINGTON 0.998 0.1046 10 9 13.2 -4.2 90.3 0.0896 0.9082
DALLAS 0.996 0.1815 11 11 13.0 -2.0 89.1 0.0831 0.9132
VANCOUVER 0.993 0.3348 19 17 14.9 2.1 87.0 0.0901 0.9033
CHICAGO 0.993 0.3456 19 19.5 13.8 5.7 86.8 0.0956 0.8974
CALGARY 0.993 0.3382 12 13 11.6 1.4 86.4 0.1049 0.8876
DETROIT 0.991 0.4294 14 14.5 12.5 2.0 85.4 0.0734 0.9177
WINNIPEG 0.984 0.8142 12 12 13.8 -1.8 80.6 0.0719 0.9126
MINNESOTA 0.982 0.8191 15 16.5 12.5 4.0 78.9 0.0775 0.9046
LOS ANGELES 0.981 0.9225 16 13.5 12.4 1.1 78.2 0.0739 0.9073
CAROLINA 0.980 0.9723 11 12.5 11.3 1.2 77.0 0.0712 0.9084
BUFFALO 0.980 1.0301 5 5 13.1 -8.1 77.0 0.0627 0.9168
NASHVILLE 0.979 0.9659 13 13 11.2 1.8 76.8 0.0659 0.9134
PHILADELPHIA 0.978 0.9971 6 6 10.2 -4.2 75.7 0.0649 0.9128
NEW JERSEY 0.970 1.3142 10 12 10.3 1.7 70.1 0.0815 0.8885
EDMONTON 0.965 1.7905 8 8.5 11.3 -2.8 66.2 0.0868 0.8779
FLORIDA 0.965 1.6445 8 8.5 9.7 -1.2 66.2 0.0740 0.8907
NY RANGERS 0.946 2.4245 8 7.5 7.0 0.5 52.4 0.0571 0.8886

As described earlier, the PDO is calculated using all shots and saves in all situations.

The Z-score identifies whether the PDO is high (or low) for a reason. The higher the Z-score, the more likely that particular PDO is where it is for reasons other than luck/chance.

Adjusted standings points are the team's current standings points but all games decided either in OT or shootout are awarded 1.5 points per team rather than 2 to the winner and 1 to the loser. The expected standings points are where the team should be based on the team PDO.

The next column is the difference between the adjusted and the expected. Positive numbers indicate a team that has managed to win games beyond what their PDO would suggest. Negative numbers represent what I refer to as "lost opportunities."

The Expected After 82GP column is the projected standings points for a team that maintains the given PDO for the remainder of the season.

The last two columns provide some context as to what makes up each team's current PDO.

Looking at the Washington Capitals in particular, we can see two disturbing things. First, the lost opportunities has grown since the first calculation. It appears the Caps are now down two wins from where they should be. The second disturbing item is the projected standings points for the end of the season. At this point, they would fail to make the playoffs as they would be fourth in the Metro division and 9th in the Eastern Conference.

JpR-dc suggested after my last post that I plot the Z-score against the PDO to see if there were any outliers.

Pdozscore_10-29-13_medium

via nhlplots.com

It appears to me that most (if not all) Z-scores are very close to where they should be. The Oilers and the Avalanche are the only two that seem a little peculiar. Washington appears near the bottom and is comfortably located in the "typical" range so we can see that as of now, they are a mediocre team.

Things look a little brighter for the Caps if we look at the following diagram which shows the change in PDO for each team:

Pdotrend_10-29-13_medium

via nhlplots.com


This plot shows each team's shooting % and save % (the two values that make up a team's PDO). The red lines represent league average shooting and save % over the seasons 2009-10 through 2012-13. I did not include earlier seasons because shooting % took a noticeable drop after the 2008-09 season. Clearly, a team that wants to win the Stanley Cup would be best served by being as far to the top right as they can possibly be.

The red squares are the PDO values for each team at the time of my previous post. The blue diamonds are the team's current PDO values (as of 10/29/2013). Teams whose PDO moved up and to the right, have green arrows. Those that moved down and to the left have red arrows. Teams that moved in a positive direction with one part and a negative direction with the other have yellow arrows.

The blue circles are the 1, 2, and 3 times the Standard Deviation of team shooting % and save % over the past 8 seasons (excluding last year's shortened season whose standard deviation was much higher than the other seasons).

As the diagram shows, those teams that started with extreme PDOs are, for the most part, converging on the blue circles as expected. The good news for the Capitals is that they are only 1 of 6 teams that improved both their shooting and save percentages.

Other items that the trend chart seems to tell me are:

1) Expect the Rangers to improve their shooting percentage significantly.

2) The Avalanche is due for some more significant regression in shooting and save percentages.

3) The Canadien's save percentage has moved out beyond the nominal range and should come back down.

4) The Sabres, Predators and Flyers should all expect to improve their shooting %

5) The Maple Leafs seem to be on an unsustainable scoring spree at the moment

I welcome any other thoughts and observations.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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