FanPost

Mathematical probability of Caps making playoffs over Sabres



I worked out probability of all the possible Caps points left in last 5 games (0 pts - 10 pts) and plotted them vs. Buffalo points (0 pts - 10 pts). Please keep in mind that this is like rolling 2 11-sided dice, and having the caveat that the Capitals die has to show 2 or more "pts" than the Buffalo die.

Buffalo Washington # of times Caps make playoffs given outcome.
10 pts any 0 of 11
9 pts any 0 of 11
8 pts 10 pts 1 of 11
7 pts 9-10 pts 2 of 11
6 pts 8-10 pts 3 of 11
5 pts 7-10 pts 4 of 11
4 pts 6-10 pts 5 of 11
3 pts 5-10 pts 6 of 11
2 pts 4-10 pts 7 of 11
1 pt 3-10 pts 8 of 11
0 pts 2-10 pts 9 of 11

So based on scenarios above, there are 45 out of 121 outcomes where Caps would make playoffs, or 37.2%. Again, this is NOT considering past outcomes, or future opponents' strength. Using same plotting as above, if Caps were to beat Boston, and Pittsburgh beats Buffalo in regulation, Caps playoff probability over Buffalo jumps to 63.6%!! (63 out of 99)

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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