The Noon Number

by J.P. on Mar 2, 2012 12:00 PM EST in The Noon Number

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 09: Dennis Wideman #6 of the Washington Capitals celebrates his power play goal at 12:33 of the first period against the Toronto Maple Leafs and is joined by Alex Ovechkin #8 at the Verizon Center on December 9, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

39 - Capitals' current "Bowman Index," which simply adds teams' ranks in power-play and penalty-kill efficiency (the Caps have the League's 19th-best power play and 20th-best penalty kill). That number ranks 24th in the League, ahead of only Dallas, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Chicago and Tampa Bay. (As a point of reference, "Bowman's primary goal was to be able to take his team's leaguewide power play and penalty kill ranking, add those numbers together, and come up with a figure below 10.")

If we were to prorate the team's performance under Dale Hunter, its Bowman Index rises slightly to 35 (16th PP, 19th PK), which would be 21st in the League. And in the least shocking revelation of the day, the team's home/road splits offer a stark contrast - the Caps have a home Bowman Index of 16 (5th PP, 11th PK), which ranks them second behind Pittsburgh, while their road Bowman Index is a miserable 50 (28th PP, 22nd PK), which ranks only ahead of Buffalo and Tampa.

The bottom line here is two-pronged: the Caps' special teams need to be much better overall, and they'd better win the Southeast Division (and with it, home ice advantage in the first round) if they want to dramatically increase their chances of making some noise in the playoffs.

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Yang, we haz it.

Feels like they’ve been a bit better at generating shots on the PP lately. Now would be a nice time for them to start going in.

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 2, 2012 12:15 PM EST reply actions

kind of hard with 5 guys on the perimeter making nice passes. Need a butt in front of the goalie

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by JediChewbacca on Mar 2, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

I see dudes get in the crease, then I see bad zone entries and slow, telegraphed passing.

by smutsboy1 on Mar 2, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

Wasn’t Knuble brought in to be a butt in front of the goal?

by CapsDegenerate on Mar 2, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

Yea, but he was also brought in to actually be a decent D player and get to the front of the net too.

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by Bman21212 on Mar 2, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Hey, Eddie O, I didn’t know you posted at The Rink!

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 2, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Just kidding, to clarify.

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by fat_daddyo on Mar 2, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Also have to consider penalty differential. Realistically, it doesn’t matter how awesome your special teams are if you’re on the PK twice as often as the opponent.

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by Knee high to a duck on Mar 2, 2012 12:29 PM EST reply actions

I don’t know about penalty differential, but I also took a look at expected special teams differentials (expected PPGF + expected SHGF – expected PPGA – expected SHGA) based on the per-game rate of penalties and power plays worked out to an 82-game pace and Washington is on pace to be -17 special teams goals.

Of course, that doesn’t correct for before/after Hunter.

by J.J. from Kansas on Mar 2, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

Under Hunter, they’re at 2.85 PPs per game, 3.46 PKs (under Boudreau, those numbers were 3.91 and 3.64, respectively).

They’re at -0.6 special teams goals per game under Hunter and were +.3 under Boudreau. Most obvious culprit for the difference? Puck possession, of course.

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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Are those Gabby numbers this year or tenure?

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by winterion on Mar 2, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

I’m sorry, those are this year.

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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

PKs roughly the same, PPs, not so much. I’m assuming a possible direct connection between the change in puck possession strategies of the coaches?

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by RedBirdie on Mar 2, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

That’s what I attributed it to above (implicitly, at least).

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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

reading fail on my part. I read your first paragraph, answered the phone, then posted the reply. D’oh!

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by RedBirdie on Mar 2, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

The home/away split on PP is almost inexplicable at that difference.

At some point it’s a statistical anomaly.

by smutsboy1 on Mar 2, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions

Conference Bowman Index

Instead of doing the ranking at the league level, I am curious what the Bowman Index at the Conference Level?

Also, is there any correlation to a low Bowman Index and the number of games played in the playoffs?

by BBinLP on Mar 2, 2012 1:30 PM EST reply actions

I guess what I should really be asking in that last question is there any correlation between a low Bowman index and the number of games WON in the playoffs?

by BBinLP on Mar 2, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

4 of the 8 teams which have had a Bowman Index below 10 have made the conference finals. Only one of them (Anaheim in 2007) won the cup.

I don’t know the actual correlation, but the article on WIIM linked above tells that regular season 5-on-5 seems to be a slightly better predictor of playoff success.

by J.J. from Kansas on Mar 2, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

4 of the 8 teams

Since the lockout. Sorry

by J.J. from Kansas on Mar 2, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

Although no team with a regular season Bowman Index score above 37 has made the conference finals since the lockout.

by J.J. from Kansas on Mar 2, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks. Somehow I failed to notice the link in the article above.

by BBinLP on Mar 2, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Hunter’s presser mentioned that he’s moved Matty P to the half boards on the powerplay. I hope that means he’s taking Johansson’s place on the first team.

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by bagace on Mar 2, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions

MoJo is awesome at earning the zone, guy carries the puck through neutral with ease. Perreault seems to be the better offensive weapon once in the zone, however, so he seems to make a lot more sense for the power play unit.

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by winterion on Mar 2, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Spot-on sir. Other than Backstrom, Mojo is the guy I want rushing the puck in the open ice. Mojo is ineffective in a “half-court offense”, and IMO, being on the PP united is an incorrect usage of his skills.

by dcrothman on Mar 2, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

I still say you should be able to decline the Power Play if your team is especially inept with the man up.

by CapsDegenerate on Mar 2, 2012 2:31 PM EST reply actions

There’s an easy (and fun!) way to decline a penalty – punch a random opponent in the face. Coincidental minors!

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by J.P. on Mar 2, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I would just like to take this moment to thank the Habs for not once but twice negating their power plays on Friday night.

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by RedBirdie on Mar 2, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Lots of easy ways to decline. You can also just send an extra player out on the ice, or win the faceoff, race back to your own zone and throw the puck over the glass, or send it to your goalie to play the puck outside the trapezoid. But J.P. is right about that way being the most fun.

by brooksengr on Mar 2, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

The best part about sending an extra player out on the ice is you might get away with it.

by discuit on Mar 2, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

If you’re Pittsburgh…

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by SpeedRacer on Mar 2, 2012 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

I say, run the power play, but do it with two forwards and two defenders, then, if/when the puck is cleared, you just have a dedicated fifth person at the red line for clearing interception and quick passing back into the zone.

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by winterion on Mar 2, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Backstrom has 18 PP points in 38 games played.

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by Icebat on Mar 2, 2012 3:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I hate stats that over value rank. This is one of them.

If you are going to assess ST, I’d prefer the one that adds PK and PP percentages.

It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.

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by macvechkin on Mar 2, 2012 5:31 PM EST reply actions