Possession is Nine-Tenths of ... the Problem
by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 10:03 AM EST
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[W]hile the Capitals may appear to be spinning in neutral, it’s thanks only to some percentages that are keeping the team in games now, rather than bad bounces going against the team like they were with Boudreau. With bad percentages at the start of the season, they were on a 93-point pace, good enough for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this season. With Hunter, and good percentages, they’re now on a [90]-point pace. - Cam Charron, Backhand Shelf
It's no secret that the final days and weeks of Bruce Boudreau's tenure in Washington were characterized by poor goaltending (Tomas Vokoun followed up a sensational October with a brutal November that seemed to feature a soft goal or two per night), snake-bitten shooters (a woeful 7.3% shooting percentage over Boudreau's last ten games) and an inability to general inability to see the two for what they were - cold streaks. Frustration mounted (or was given reason to come out of repression), Boudreau threw his hands up, and the situation became untenable.
Enter Dale Hunter.
And exit puck possession.
As Cam Charron details in the post quoted above, Boudreau's Capitals were a great possession team, even to the end of his tenure.
[Brief digression: "possession" here doesn't literally mean time with the puck, but rather it refers to advanced metrics such as Corsi or Fenwick, both of which measure shot generation for and against, as a proxy for possession; they're imperfect, but do the trick. As Charron uses it, a "possession rate of 55.4%" means that the team saw 55.4% of shots - those on goal, blocked and missing the net - go in its favor. In other words, for every 20 or so shots attempted in a game, 11 were directed at the opponents' goal, nine at the Caps' net. Charron further limits his analysis to game-tied, even-strength situations to get a measure of the team's abilities without the influence of "score effect." Alright, back to the post.]
Granted, there wasn't much time when the score was tied when they were getting blasted 7-1, 5-1 and so on, but even over those last five games, they were on the right side of 50% just about any way you'd want to slice the possession numbers.
[OK, another digression: we're using a script written by Vic Ferrari which captures the data we're looking for. Here, for example, are Boudreau's last five games overall. Throw in the word "tied" in the URL and it looks like this. There are other game situations available as well, but note that some of the terms (like "close") don't necessarily have their plain meanings associated with them. For the sake of this post, we're going to stick with score-tied data.]
Under Hunter, the story has been drastically different, as the Caps have been dominated in terms of possession - whereas they had a "possession rate of 55.4%" under Boudreau, that number has dropped to 45.4% under Hunter... which probably marries up with what your eyes have told you, as the Caps have been outshot by an average of 30.8 to 25.0 (so the Caps have registered 44.9% of the shots on goal in their games, 44.8% at even strength), drawn far fewer penalties, and have blocked upwards of 18 shots per night. [For more on that SOG imbalance, check out Neil Greenberg's article over at ESPN.com.] To put that 45.4% in perspective, the Caps' Fenwick (which simply removes blocked shots from the equation) over the same period is 47.1%, which would rank 26th in the League over the course of the season.
So what's at the root of the drop-off? Charron praises Boudreau (who certainly deserves credit for Anaheim's turn-around and all he did here), but let's look at some other possible contributing factors after the jump.
- Thought #1: Boudreau had Mike Green for one-third of his tenure; Hunter hasn't had him at all. Green certainly helps with possession (here's what his numbers looked like last year), and would presumably be hugely important to get back in the Caps' lineup, but even without Green, Boudreau's Caps were at 52.7% (note: that does include the eight shifts Green skated against New Jersey on November 11). Hunter has had a very-limited Green for a game-and-change and came in at 46.8%. Verdict: Mike Green helps, but doesn't explain the huge drop-off.
- Thought #2: Hunter has coached nearly half his games without Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom is another possession machine (see last year, for example), but the Caps under Hunter were at 48.7% with Backstrom and 42.1% without him. Verdict: Missing Backstrom is a killer (shocking, I know), even if the team wasn't above the waterline with him in the lineup.
- Thought #3: There's a learning curve associated with Hunter's system. Since he's coached 30 games, let's look at 10-game segments since Hunter took over: 50.6%, 43.8%, 41.9%. Verdict: Yeah, that ain't it.
There are other possibilities, but it would seem that injuries have played a significant part in the discrepancy between the even-strength possession numbers under the Caps' two 2011-12 bench bosses... but they don't explain it all. Dale Hunter's system seems to be predicated upon limiting scoring chances-against at the expense of puck possession, almost dropping back to neutral ice at the first sign of a 50/50 puck in the offensive so as to avoid odd-man rushes-against, and frequently collapsing to block shots from the outside when the opponents establish possession in the Capitals zone. That the Caps have been moderately successful playing Hunter's system is a testament to Vokoun's resurgence (though, to be fair, that's also a bit of a two-way street), and some timely scoring.
Maybe with a few key names back in the lineup and better effort and results along the boards, it's a system that will work. And it might even be good enough to win games as-is if the special teams can perform near the top of the League. But right now every game is like rolling a 20-sided die (if you've read this far, chances are you own one), with nine winning numbers and 11 losers. And that's a tough way to try to make up ground in a playoff race when you're on the outside looking in.
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Hunter was never the correct coach to be the leader of this team. For several reasons. But mainly this. You can’t hand the keys to the kingdom, particularly such a high-priced kingdom with massive expectations, to someone who has never coached a day of professional hockey in his life.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:06 AM EST reply actions
And when you add in the “franchise legend” aspect it only makes the whole thing messier.
Please, call me F&B.
I completely agree. I think it was a franchise PR move from the beginning. “Look, fans, it’s Dale Hunter!”
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I hope that’s not the case. PR move is what you do with a really bad team to tide you over, not one that has any expectations. But the fact that he is franchise legend only ensures that the pain will be prolonged if this is indeed a mistake. GM is not very quick on the trigger with coaches, and adding Hunter’s status makes it even more likely that he’ll have to fail for a while before he’s replaced.
by kingbonehead on Feb 7, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Spoiler: it’s a mistake. And literally the only explanation I can come up with is PR move. I think a lot higher of McPhee than to think he’s silly enough to think Hunter was actually the best hockey coach to lead this time. It’s just so far out of left field, his selection.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Well by firing a coach in the middle of the season GMGM didn’t have a whole lot of options. He had to choose from guys who were on the TSN intermission panel and the very few guys that might leave a job mid-season to come coach the Caps. Most of the attractive candidates with experience were employed and weren’t going to quit on their team mid-season.
Please, call me F&B.
Marc Crawford? What’s wrong with him? He’s a TSN panelist.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
won the Stanley cup. Hitch made the playoffs once, look how that one worked out. An asshole is exactly what this team needs to coach them.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
sorry hitch made it twice, losing in the first round both times.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Fans of 29 teams would say that the Caps already have one behind the bench…
Yeah, Crawford won the Stanley Cup. 15 years ago. With a healthy Forsberg and in-prime Sakic and Roy in an era where parity meant “4 different teams might win the Stanley Cup this year!”
Obviously he has more experience and success than DH, I’m just not sold on him being what the team needs/needed.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Neither am I, but I sure am sold on him being a lot closer to what this team needs than Dale Hunter.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Bob Hartley was who I was screaming for.
by RCheli on Feb 7, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So you think. Who’s to say it wouldn’t turn things into a bigger shitshow? Who’s to say the big guns (and we know who we’re talking about) wouldn’t react negatively?
Not that Dale was brought here to placate anyone, but there has to be something said for the familiarity the organization had with him.
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I think the Caps rolled the dice either way. After a coaching change, some players are going to see their value fall off a cliff (Nylander, Schultz), and others are going to see a positive shift (Green, Wideman).
Had the Caps brought in Hitch, it’s possible that someone other than Schultz would have been the target.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Right, but I’m not talking about systems here, I’m talking about personalities.
Let’s be honest – Dale was a Hail Mary. And this coach was probably going to be the last one who could spare Ovechkin’s reputation from being pretty solidly “uncoachable.” So GMGM went with the guy he thought could reach his superstar.
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How positively are Ovechkin and Semin reacting to this move with Dale as the coach? That is the issue that I have. if you want to bring in a guy to whip the team in to shape, fine. That’s all well and good. But bring in somebody who has experience coaching and whipping professionals into shape, not 18 year old kids.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
literally the only explanation I can come up with is PR move.
Then you need to think harder.
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by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Okay that was wrong, I am exaggerating a bit. But if the “culture change” you speak of was such a priority, which I agree it was, why bring in someone who has never made a culture change?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Because you believe he can instill the kind of culture you want, because he did it as a player and a team captain, and he did at as a coach at the junior level.
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To me it seems that that team placed a very high priority on “culture change,” and figured the strategic changes wouldn’t be as negatively impactful as they obviously have been so far. They were wrong. But without knowing just how bad things had gotten behind closed doors, it’s difficult to assess the proper weight that each of the countless priorities should have taken on. And insofar as changing culture goes, going with a guy you know, who has credibility within the franchise (albeit not for NHL-coaching accomplishments), was a solid move.
But as you know, I didn’t like the move then and don’t like it now. But the logic of the move isn’t inherently awful.
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who has never coached a day of professional hockey in his life
This is a red herring in my opinion. Either a guy can coach and is a good fit for a given team, or he can’t/isn’t. His prior experience really isn’t all that relevant to me. I don’t thing Hunter has had a tough time with the Caps because he came straight out of junior hockey, I think he’s had a tough time because his system is antithetical to the players the Caps have on the roster.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 9 recs
Antithetical to the players the Caps have or antithetical to the way you need to play to succeed in the NHL these days?
I think there’s something to be said for the difference between coaching kids and pros. And I definitely think the systems are much different for the CHL and the NHL in the sense that you can get a lot farther in the CHL just riding 3-4 players.
Please, call me F&B.
thank you Mr. Parker. Dale won in London because he played with this system and had 3 or 4 of the top 15 players in the O on his team, not because it’s a good system for pro hockey.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Without watching a lot more of their games, I think that’s a pretty bold statement.
I’m not a fan of Hunter’s system thus far, but I have a hard time imagining that THIS is how it’s supposed to work. This is a system in which Patrick Kane put up 145 points. This is a system in which Rob Schremp put up 145 points.
If Dale’s system “kills offense,” then how is it that his system has produced so many offensive stars? Yes, he certainly gets his fair share of talented players, but even still, his players have absolutely crushed it offensively.
There are simply too many “known unknowns” for me to draw a straight line between A and B to say that Hunter’s “system” (such as we’ve seen it), is somehow successful in the OHL, but not in the NHL.
Unleash the Apathy.
How do you know it was the same system?
And how much of Kane and Schremp putting up points was competition more than system? I’d say a hell of a lot.
How has the University of Florida (or Florida State in the ’90s) produced so many high-passing QBs but precious few that could do anything more than dick in the NFL?
How is it that Reggie Bush goes from the most dynamic player in one league to a journeyman? How does Matt Leinart go from an almost undefeated college career to 3rd string afterthought?
Please, call me F&B.
How has the University of Florida (or Florida State in the ’90s) produced so many high-passing QBs but precious few that could do anything more than dick in the NFL?
Beat me to this. I was just typing this analogy. We agree! Hello Armageddon!
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
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This is a facile analogy. The CHL and NCAA football are nothing alike.
1) There is far, far, far more competitive balance in the CHL than there is in NCAA football, on account of the draft and because über-talented players tend to be “one and done” in the CHL, or they leave once they’re drafted.
2) My point wasn’t that it’s shocking that there are great junior scorers, it’s that London has been loaded with guys who scored. The team was known as an offensive powerhouse. Most offensive powerhouses don’t play ultra-conservative systems like the one we’ve seen thus far in Washington.
3) What you’re suggesting is something akin to saying that a player put up 4000+ passing yards playing the triple option in college, but he can’t pass a lick in the pros. . . . Nobody puts up 4000+ passing yards playing the triple option, just like nobody puts up 150+ points playing the game the way the Caps have been under Hunter.
Which brings me to
4)
How do you know it was the same system?
This is my point precisely. I don’t know. There are too many “known unknowns.” I don’t think we can draw a line between what Hunter did as an OHL coach and extrapolate his philosophies as an NHL coach. I have a tremendously difficult time believing that THIS is how London played when Kane and Schremp put up beaucoup points.
Frankly, without watching a lot of London’s games (which I haven’t), I really cannot say. What I can say is that Hunter’s system as we’ve seen it thus far sucks at maintaining possession of the puck. Whether that’s all on the coaches, or partly on the personnel is also tough to say.
Unleash the Apathy.
You overstate the parity in the OHL.
I never said anything about 4000 yards or a particular system. I said that some players feast on lower competition and then can’t do the same thing when they are against the best of the best. That’s just fact.
You admit you didn’t watch London but you talk about “his system” being antithetical to the Caps’ personnel. How can you say “his system” as if it’s monolithic when you don’t even know what it was in the OHL? Further, without watching London how can you deny that he was heavily relying on his NHL-caliber talents when everything we’ve seen from the CHL suggests that teams do, in fact, skate the hell out of their NHL-caliber talent. In fact, lots of teams have talked about bringing up their CHL prospects before the staterati would like to see them called up (oh nooooooooes, save an ELC year!) specifically because they are afraid of the bad habits that get developed in the CHL as coaches (who are concerned with winning CHL games) skate the hell out of their stars and overlook deficiencies in their game.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d say that the OHL is, in terms of parity, closer to intra-conference games. In other words, it would be as though Florida only played SEC teams, and didn’t play any early-season patsies.
And I never disputed that some players feast on lower competition. That much is obvious. But seriously, look at how the Caps play the game right now and tell me that you could envision ANYONE putting up 150+ points playing the game this way, regardless of the level. I seriously doubt London trapped this much, or dumped the puck and changed this much. I seriously doubt London consciously eschewed puck possession. It’s just a guess, having never really watched them play outside the odd Memorial Cup game.
You admit you didn’t watch London but you talk about "his system" being antithetical to the Caps’ personnel.
Nice try, but I’m talking about the way the Caps are playing right now, not what he did in London. The system he has implemented since he arrived seems ill-suited for the roster that McPhee has assembled. I think that’s pretty hard to dispute.
How can you say "his system" as if it’s monolithic when you don’t even know what it was in the OHL?
I have repeatedly stated that I don’t know. I’ve repeatedly said that there are too many “known unknowns” for me to draw a line between his OHL and NHL experience. That’s why I think the original argument saying, “this is why it’s foolish to hire a coach with zero professional experience” is invalid. All I’m basing my opinion on is what I’ve seen from him so far at the NHL level.
There are differences between every level of hockey, and between different teams. Just because a coach is successful in one place does not ensure that he’ll be successful somewhere else. I don’t put much stock into Hunter’s past. I’m judging him on what he’s done as the coach of the Caps. Right now, his present system (as we’ve seen it executed) seems to be a really, really bad fit for the present roster. I don’t think that has anything to do with him coming from the OHL.
In sum: just because Hunter’s brief NHL tenure has been sub-par means nothing with regard to the relative merits of coaches without professional experience. The two are, in my opinion, unrelated.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Except that your first comment was “either you’re a good coach or you aren’t” and that the experience is irrelevant.
Can you envision anyone in the NHL putting up 150 points?
Please, call me F&B.
Can you envision anyone in the NHL putting up 150 points?
John Tavares out of spite.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
by NGreenberg on Feb 7, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
How is that “except?” That’s what I said. That was my point throughout.
No, I can’t. But can you imagine – even at the OHL level – someone putting up 150pts when their team only takes 20 shots/game?
Unleash the Apathy.
I don’t think “you’re a good coach or you’re not.” I think some people are better suited to coach in professional leagues and some are better suited to coach in amateur leagues. Thus, I’d like to see a guy prove himself in a professional league before hiring him during what should be a Cup contender year.
Why is Nick Saban so much better coaching college kids than pros? Ditto Spurrier. There’s a different element when you coach amateur players, it’s much more teaching heavy. The attitude is different with pro players so I think there is a serious difference between the two leagues and it’s not “you’re just a good coach or you aren’t.”
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You’ll note that I didn’t say “either you’re a good coach or you aren’t,” I said, “Either a guy can coach and is a good fit for a given team, or he can’t/isn’t.”
Some teams – even NHL teams – will need “teachers.” Some teams will need disciplinarians. Some teams will need a hands-off approach. There is no one correct formula. Sure, there will be coaches whose style makes them better suited for the CHL, or the AHL, but the argument that no professional experience necessarily equals a poor NHL performance is too simplistic.
My point is that reducing the early struggles of this coaching staff down to Hunter’s lack of professional coaching experience is missing the point entirely.
Unleash the Apathy.
Are you seriously asking how high draft picks who were some of the best players in the O ever put up massive point totals in a JUNIOR LEAGUE against teenagers? That makes no sense to me, I’m sorry.
Patrick Kane put up those points because I guarantee you he didn’t play good team defense like the rest of his teammates. He had free reign…and you don’t have that at the NHL level, because everyone is a high-level player who was one of the best players on a junior team.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
I think you’re overestimating the difference in systems.
As for the ability to ride 3-4 players, I can see that, but there are teams in the NHL who’ve been fairly successful with similar tactics. Maybe not “Stanley Cup” successful, but at least into the playoffs.
Unleash the Apathy.
ah, you see, but that is the problem. Call me crazy, but I think this team has the talent to win a stanley cup. as does pretty much everybody else. So…(drum roll)…try and bring in someone who can lead you to the cup.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
I think you’re overestimating the talent on this team, which is far more disturbing than simply blaming the coach.
Unleash the Apathy.
You didn’t think this was the best Caps team in over a decade when you looked at the roster in training camp?
Please, call me F&B.
Yes, but…
There was still a major hole at 2C, and the defense depended entirely on fragile and inexperienced players.
Unleash the Apathy.
And yet this team was still better than the team in each of the previous two years, which were objectively “Cup contenders.” There’s no way to say with a straight face that this team wasn’t billed as a Cup contender coming into this season.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. It was a flawed team, but few teams (if any) are perfect.
It wasn’t inconceivable to think that they could get to April, have Vokoun catch fire, and be successful, with or without those flaws.
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by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How many teams haven’t had flaws? Maybe 3 since the lockout? This is the salary cap world. We bemoan our own shortcomings, and the 2C is certainly a problematic one, but I’d bet every fan base complains about their flaws.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Of course, and that’s my point.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Call me crazy, but I think this team has the talent to win a stanley cup.
You’re crazy.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
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Yes Neil, because nobody picked them to win the Stanley Cup this offseason…I must have missed that.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, well, if Hockey News picked them to win the Cup then….
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yes, they know nothing. Only one of the most widely recognized hockey publications in the world, but their predictions mean nothing.
It’s clearly not a lock, but to say this team wasn’t one of the early favorites to win the cup in most people’s minds is silly. Even you, Neil, had good things to write about most of the changes they made this offseason.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
and that’s not to say “I’m shocked you wrote something of quality,” but just that you were positive about their chances.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, I thought they did have good offseason acqs, esp Vokoun – however, being a good team/Cup team are two VERY different things.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yes, I know that. But what’s to say they didn’t have a good shot at the cup?
At the start of the season, most people had them on a short list to have a shot at winning the cup, with Pitt, Chicago, Detroit, Vancouver, NYR, Bos.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
The team that won the east two years in a row got better.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Even you, Neil, had good things to write about most of the changes they made this offseason.
This season’s squad appears deeper and more capable than the one that brought home the Presidents’ Trophy while scoring more goals than any team in the past 15 years. Still, fans should remain cautious.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
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so does “cautious” now mean “little shot at the cup?”
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Even you, Neil, had good things to write about most of the changes they made this offseason.
Mag Rankings: Washington Capitals
But with power-play opportunities decreasing every year, the Capitals are going to have to manufacture goals any way they can to achieve their ultimate goal.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
post your articles all you want to get to get more hits, never once do you say they can’t do it.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
the best team in the east got better on paper. they had a good chance at winning the cup at the start of the year.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
Follow me on Twitter - @HarryHawkings
by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
After not making it past the second round when they DID score for the last 3 years?
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Over the last two seasons, GMGM basically replaced Flash, Fehr, and the veteran 2C stopgaps (Morrison, Arnott) with Johansson, Brouwer, and Ward. I love how Brouwer’s played this season, but in terms of raw production this team’s forward corps didn’t get a whole lot better in the offseason. At all. Vokoun for Varly was the one clear upgrade, and even that didn’t pay dividends immediately.
Many people (myself included) got excited when the moves were made, but on the whole this is still the same team that structurally relies on Ovechkin to score 50 and on Sasha to score 30-40. If those two were performing (and if the rest of the team is healthy), then it would be fair to call this team a contender (as in, one of the 5 or 6 teams most likely to win the Cup). And I think that all of those optimistic predictions about the Caps were predicated on those two performing to their typical levels. Instead, they have slid further into mediocrity, and they have carried the team with it. The injuries just exacerbated the problem.
"Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see." - Schopenhauer
by capsfaninexile on Feb 7, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t begrudge the moves and like a lot of folks I was excited by them too, but I think the simple fact that neither of those guys was going to get any younger and magically reclaim a scoring touch that (post-lockout) not many old-ish guys can realize. I’d like to think that GMGM was thinking in advance of that when it came to replacing 20 for 22 for instance. I’d like to tell you that. /Red
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
that article Neil also posts them at a 36/36 playoff power meter. but no, they were not considered a favorite by many to win the cup. not at all.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
that article Neil also posts them at a 36/36 playoff power meter. but no, they were not considered a favorite by many to win the cup. not at all.
That’s not my metric.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
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Is your metric the only one that matters in that article? What about the “1” next to the Conference and NHL rankings?
Never once did I say that you predicted them to win the Cup. I said that they had the talent to do it. Just because you think I am crazy for thinking that, does not mean that I am crazy for thinking that. A LOT of people thought they had the talent to win the cup, including some of your colleagues at ESPN (as evidenced by that article), people at THN, and other respected publications.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
Sometimes you believe in the stats, sometimes you believe in the players.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
What does that mean? So when evaluating players and systems and teams I have to pick one and stick blindly to it? You talk about how Boudreau was such a good puck possession coach, and how puck possession is so important to winning. How Chicago will be a favorite for the cup if they get Frans Neilsen because he drives puck possession so well. The Capitals had Boudreau at the start of the season and only improved (on paper, yes) the team that finished top 2 in the east 3 years in a row, including winning it twice. They had the talent before the year started to win the cup.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
The Capitals had Boudreau at the start of the season and only improved (on paper, yes) the team that finished top 2 in the east 3 years in a row, including winning it twice.
And still hadn’t advanced past round two in the postseason of any of those years.
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
yes. breaking news there. What is your point? I was talking about Boudreau in reference to a puck possession coach.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Well if you’re going to keep citing their past regular season results, let’s link their postseason performances in their as well, like most other season preview pieces presumably did.
Liked their offseason moves, wasn’t sure what they’d do about it when they started playing the games, particularly in lieu of said postseasons.
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
You’re missing my point. I am saying that, per Neil’s stats, they should have had a good chance because of puck possession. That’s all.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but you also have to have this discussion from an ex ante perspective.
I challenge anyone to find a pre-season prediction that didn’t have the Caps in the playoffs. I bet there weren’t more than a couple that had them not winning the SE, and those probably had the Bolts winning the SE. It’s easy to say now “the Caps weren’t as good as we thought they were” but in training camp there is no way the Caps weren’t in the top 6-8 teams in the league. That makes them objectively “Cup contenders” IMO.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
thank you.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
ex ante perspective
Don’t throw lawyer talk at me, you crazy Tunt.
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wish I had that kind of money.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and, again, never ONCE in your stats did you say “The capitals are not as well off as everyone thinks they are.” You said they would have to work to achieve their goal. Everybody works to achieve their goal. No one cruises to the Stanley Cup except Gretz’s Oilers.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t have access to Insider, so I can’t see the precise points you make, but it seems to me that the only way to rule this team out as a legitimate Cup contender before the start of the season would be to correctly predict that Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, and Green would utterly fail to deliver the sort of performances that the structure of the team requires (which ended up happening). After all, if those four perform at what (sigh) used to be typical levels, the team is UNDENIABLY a contender.
So, unless you made such a prediction (or unless you deny that a Caps team with thriving Young Guns is a contender), it seems weird to scoff at the positive preseason predictions. Obviously, if the people at HN (or many Caps fans, for that matter) thought that the four players the team is built around would totally underperform or miss substantial time due to injury, they wouldn’t have been as optimistic.
"Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see." - Schopenhauer
by capsfaninexile on Feb 7, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
There is a reason that the caveat—“on paper”—was included in many of the predictions about this roster in the off-season. Even GMGM, who was clearly excited by his additions to the team, ALWAYS added this caveat.
As they also say with predictions: the guys still have to play the game.
Ovechkin on how he can help the team: "Score MOAR goals."
by capsyoungguns on Feb 7, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously every team has 3-4 best players, but you can’t ride them as hard and you need your depth guys to pull their weight more.
There was an article about Carlson in London and they said he played 30 minutes a night but he was such a good skater for that level that he was able to coast around and was able to play large minutes at less than full speed. Almost nobody can get away with that in the NHL. And go check out the list of players that routinely play 30 nights a game, while we’re at it.
Please, call me F&B.
They had 2 first ballot HoFers on D and the only guy who I think is really good at conserving energy, i.e. coasting through large parts of shifts.
They also distributed their F ice time a lot more evenly (The Pahlsson third line was huge for them and each of their top 2 lines played a huge role).
Please, call me F&B.
oh and they had a goalie rocking a 1.81 and .937 in the playoffs
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Can it be both? Do you think McPhee was buying Hunter’s “system” when he hired him, or buying Hunter’s mystique/tough-to-pay-against persona? Maybe shopping for someone who could get the players to buy-in without looking at what he would be getting them to buy-in to?
by kingbonehead on Feb 7, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t know how mystique makes a team better, but I’m sure the attitude was a part of the search process. But the system and the ability to get players to succeed in the NHL had to be a huge part of the search process, no?
Please, call me F&B.
I disagree. Experience in a very similar situation is almost always a good thing. If a coach experience, perhaps he’d be able to tweek his system to fit the players, because no system is going to be perfect for any team. But I do agree that it was a poor match in genera;/
Experience in a very similar situation is almost always a good thing.
Not if your experience simply reinforces bad habits. Joel Quenneville in Chicago is a good example. He had a serious reputation from St. Louis and Colorado as a “goalie killer” – a coach who’d pull his keeper at the first sign of trouble, thereby undermining their confidence.
Quenneville somehow learned the “right” lessons, at least as far as the 2010 season went, because he stuck with Niemi.
Unleash the Apathy.
And that Q issue has resurfaced a bit this year, no?
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If a coach experience, perhaps he’d be able to tweek his system to fit the players
Well, Hunter has plenty of experience at the junior level. Is there any evidence that he tweeked his system to fit the players? No roster is static.
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
The roster/system disconnect makes sense, but here is another possibility. I’m not going to claim to be expert in hockey theory, but after this many games I start to wonder if there isn’t a “level” effect here. We touched on it in one of our scribbles, but consider football. There are certain things that work at one level in that sport, but not at another. There are colleges that employed things like the wishbone offense and the "wildcat" formation very successfully, but they didn’t (and don’t) work at all at the NFL level. At the college level, the disparities in talent among teams that execute those offenses well and the defenses they play makes those schemes successful; teams can use them successfully, not because the schemes are inherently better, but because those teams have so much more talent and depth than their opponents. In the NFL, where talent is much more evenly spread among the teams, those schemes are too easy to defend.
Maybe something like that is happening here. Are the things the Caps are doing too easy to figure out and to defend at this level of play?
If you've read this far...seek help.
In Clips today there’s a link to Alan May’s visit with the Sports Reporters, where he said it seemed like the Bruins knew waht the Caps were going to do before the Caps themselves knew what they were going to do.
Certainly Tim Thomas was able to get himself correctly in position for just about every shot.
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But right now every game is like rolling a 20-sided die (if you’ve read this far, chances are you own one)
Needed my Ring of Translation +4 to get this joke.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
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Heh. Sadly, I get the reference.
And also own a 20-sided die, somewhere in the back of a closet.
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I suppose Hunter’s system could work, if the team wasn’t composed of players terrible at break-outs and getting shots actually on goal.
"Money talks. I listen."
Yeah, but what exactly are “Dale Hunter style” players? If 21, 20, 42, 26, 15 etc. aren’t “Dale Hunter players” then who are? Is another off-season of bringing in free agents really going to fix anything? Who can they bring in (realistically) that is going to make this system look better? I really hope they don’t move guys like MoJo and Kuz just so they can get some good ol’ Canadian muckers. This team lacks high end/scoring talent. But those guys aren’t the focus of DH’s system so you’d think that wouldn’t make the team this horrible at ES.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Well, what they lack is healthy, possession-driving pivots. But those aren’t just “Dale Hunter players,” they’re “NHL gold.”
It’s not about the players (as this post fairly clearly demonstrates – Bruce was able to have a reasonable amount of success, tempered only by bad luck, with them). It’s about health and the system.
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Moreover, why is this team terrible at breakouts? Why is this team suddenly bad at putting shots on goal? It’s pretty much the same personnel that Boudreau was coaching, except that Mike Green and Nick Backstrom haven’t been around for the entire time.
Here’s where some of the narrative stuff comes in to statistical analysis: we thought that a Dale Hunter team was going to be one in which opposing teams would get hemmed in by a physical forecheck and by winning puck battles along the boards. Instead, we’ve seen a team that’s so concerned with limiting odd-man rushes against that they’re falling back to the neutral zone without finishing their checks or generating any o-zone pressure. The scoring chances for are coming on odd-man rushes and neutral zone turnovers.
The forwards are playing like small forwards. In the defensive zone, they’re not pressuring the puck, but they’re collapsing in front of the goalie to block shots. Their offense right now is predicated on opportunistic scoring on the rush. They’re continually getting badly outshot. The only thing keeping them in games is a ridiculously hot goalie.
In other words, they’re the 2009-2010 Montreal Canadiens.
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by Wheeler on Feb 7, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because they have no centers.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 7, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
My guess is that Hunter and Johnson came in and saw that, despite their shot/scoring chance advantages, Boudreau’s Caps were giving up way too many “high quality” chances. By that, I mean breakaways and odd-man rushes.
The reason for this was that the Caps had a lethal combination of a fairly aggressive forecheck, a total lack of neutral-zone structure, and a defensive corps with limited mobility and experience. If you look back at the 09-10 Montreal series, this was the primary issue: the Caps may have had more scoring chances overall by a wide margin, but the Canadiens often had the better chances. I think that Hunter and Johnson figured that the first order of business was to drastically reduce the number of odd-man rushes against.
Unfortunately, Hunter hasn’t seemed to move past the crawl phase with implementing his system. They’re still stuck on limiting odd-man chances against by being super conservative with their forecheck and their line changes.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Seriously, tempered only by bad luck? Please tell me your memory isn’t that short. Bruce’s Caps were giving up odd-man rushes like they thought it was funny. These goals are DEFLATING, and thus goalies and the team in front of them sucked even more. I shouldn’t have to tell you that there’s more to hockey than numbers.
Bruce also made baffling coaching decisions that cost games (see Nashville game, putting scoring line after breaking the tie; Buffalo game where he decided to play passive instead of attacking a team of AHL callups)…and ultimately his job.
So please, spare us the narrative that Bruce was a victim of bad luck.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
*only bad luck I should say, yes he had SOME bad luck.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
I shouldn’t have to tell you that there’s more to hockey than numbers.
Wait, what?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Read the post – I think my recounting of events is pretty clear and pretty fair.
By “Bruce was able to have a reasonable amount of success, tempered only by bad luck, with them” I’m referring specifically to these metrics – Bruce inarguably was able to coax out of this team very good possession numbers, but those numbers didn’t translate to goals-for and -against as we’d expect due in large part to luck (which includes bad goaltending). I don’t think that’s an outrageous claim.
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One thing to look at would be the scoring chance save percentage under Boudreau versus Hunter, and another thing to look at would be the percentage of shot attempts that came on scoring chances. I don’t have access to either number – or I just don’t know where to look to derive it – but the numbers together would indicate whether Bruce’s bad luck was somewhat self-inflicted (i.e., giving up lots of scoring chances) or whether Hunter’s system was doing more to prevent scoring chance frequency.
Reporter: "What’s your Mom’s birthday?"
Tortorella: "I have no idea."
Hunter’s Caps are giving up more scoring chances against and generating fewer scoring chances for, per game. Granted, not all scoring chances are the same – certainly a 2-on-1 is more dangerous than a shot from the faceoff dot with traffic and back-pressure – but the notion that Hunter has dramatically reduced chances-against is false.
Hunter’s getting saves. Bruce didn’t.
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Yeah, I guess I didn’t phrase what I’m trying to get at well. Hunter’s Caps are giving up more scoring chances, but that’s happening – in part – because the team is not doing a good job of possessing the puck. Bruce’s Caps did a better job of possessing the puck, and consequently gave up fewer scoring chances.
I’m more interested in seeing a possession-independent scoring chance metric, rather than aggregate totals. For instance, if Hunter’s Caps are giving up 70 shot attempts a night, but are only giving up 20 scoring chances, they’re doing something different than a team that gives up 30 shot attempts a night but only 15 scoring chances.
In other words, were Bruce’s Caps actually giving up scoring chances more frequently when the other team had the puck? And if so, wouldn’t that tend to depress a goalie’s save percentage?
Reporter: "What’s your Mom’s birthday?"
Tortorella: "I have no idea."
In other words, were Bruce’s Caps actually giving up scoring chances more frequently when the other team had the puck? And if so, wouldn’t that tend to depress a goalie’s save percentage?
I have been working on a WaPo post with this info, but have been side tracked because other, more pressing topics/deadlines have come up.
Plus, I wasn’t sure there was interest in it. I will see about getting this info up sooner rather than later.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
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I think some of it is the “too afraid to make a mistake”, also a bit of “advanced hockey smarts”. They were bad at the breakout even under Bruce, but the uptempo nature meant more often than not, the other team was moving back. Another problem that existed before, but just seems to be magnified now, is the guys tend to just fling the puck to empty areas or make blind centering passes where the other team always seem to get to it first.
So if we’re lucky, the team can actually learn to play this way (if Dale stays) or the front office will be back to panning for gold in the center position or even the head coach position.
"Money talks. I listen."
Maybe that should be “clearing the puck out of the D zone”, but they really had trouble moving the puck up ice if the Caps were pressured unless Green was on the ice. It’s just that other teams tended to fall back more than they do the Hunter Caps.
"Money talks. I listen."
I just never noticed their breakouts being a problem under BB. But yeah, I suppose it could be because of Green (I doubt it, because Alzner, Carlson and Schultz all used to be good at the outlet passes by my memory) or even a change in other teams’ tactics.
Their breakout was a big problem in the PIT series and to a lesser degree the TBL series as well.
Please, call me F&B.
I just never noticed their breakouts being a problem under BB.
Couldn’t disagree more on this point.
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Part of this break out problem (and flinging it out of the zone) is because of an over conservative approach when in their zone. All forwards are often down below the dots. There rarely seems to be anyone to break out to.
I don’t think that’s necessarily bad. The trick I feel is timing. You see that if the D wants to reverse the puck around the boards, he has to turn around and give away his intent, so it’s basically a 50-50 footrace to the opposite boards between a Caps forward and an opponent forward. Just out of sync all the time. Puck support comes too early or too late, etc.
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Feb 7, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
I really think everybody underestimated Flash. No he alone doesn’t explain the team-wide offensive drop-off since Fall 2010, but it’s not a coincidence that the exit of talented playmakers like him the entrance of grinders like Ward have hurt this team offensively. Then again…I shudder to think how last season would’ve went without Scott Hannan.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Flash sucks.
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by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Since you’re asking, no, but if that’s what you’re looking for I’m sure you can find it without much difficulty.
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So do the Panthers since early December.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Odd, since the topic of this post was puck possession, and Flash was pretty poor by these metrics during his time in DC.
Unleash the Apathy.
___
To wit, Flash last year:
Easy starts, bad possession, middling results.
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Flash….talented playmaker. huh?
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This season, Flash has 17G, 21A, and would be 2nd in goals only behind Ovechkin and 3rd on the team in points behind Ovechkin and Backstrom. Inconsistent? Sure, but how many guys on our roster also fit that label?
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
He wouldn’t have those points here because he wouldn’t be getting first-line/top-PP ice time.
Moreover, his game isn’t likely going to produce playoff success – the more of those guys the team jettisons, the better.
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Funny how guys can flourish when given top-line minutes eh? Other than the 6.7 million dollar man, who’s left to jettison?
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Funny how guys can flourish when given top-line minutes eh?
Not really – someone’s gotta get those minutes.
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and in fact, we saw that when Ovechkin was out and Flash got top line minutes and lots of PP time. And then Ovie comes back, Flash goes back to the second line, and it’s like a completely different player.
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But not everybody produces when given those minutes.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I should hope that for $4.5 million per year Flash could do some things that not everybody could do.
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yep, these are the points I was going to make.
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Flash has speed – which is an area that the team has downgraded, and a part of the problem – and a shot. That allows him to put the puck in the net when he’s fed PP time and first line time.
He’s also soft as hell, streaky, allergic to defense and a complete nullity in the playoffs.
I couldn’t be happier that he’s elsewhere.
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The “we shouldn’t have traded Flash” theory is a red herring. I think the Caps have met their quota in soft euro wingers that disappear in the playoffs.
Tu ne cede malis
by _Skullduggery_ on Feb 7, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t care for your use of stereotypes.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
you really think you’re the first to tell members of this community that they “should be fucking ashamed” to call themselves Caps fan? Or that we need to “grab [our] sack and stop the damn whining”?
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Alright, let’s dial it back a bit…
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Okay look, the grab the sack thing was a tongue-in-cheek Dean Evason reference…I thought it was humorous, guess not.
I was simply trying to make the point that the season is not lost and I do feel that many here are overreacting. This sort of nonsense: http://m.examiner.com/washington-capitals-in-washington-dc/laich-injured-caps-loss-to-b-s-if-the-injury-is-serious-the-season-is-over is what I was responding to mostly. If that’s ultra homer-y, then so be it.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Depends what you mean by “lost season.” They can still make the playoffs but they aren’t going to do any damage there unless something drastically changes.
We were “overreacting” when the Caps were 7-0 and we weren’t blowing sunshine. We even had a long time member of the community quit commenting because we were such Debbie Downers. And now look, halfway through the season the Caps aren’t in playoff position. Vindication never sucked so much, and I’d really appreciate it if people would stop saying I (or the people that agree with me) should be ashamed to call myself a Caps fan. I could say similarly flattering things about the people who refuse to see the flaws in this team, but I usually don’t. People have different personalities and different styles of fandom, that doesn’t mean one side should be “ashamed” or forfeits their right to call themselves a fan.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 18 recs
You’re right, I should have never attacked anybody else’s fandom. No reason for me to show my optimism by lashing out at other’s pessimism. Apologies for all.
At the same time, I feel like that any glimpse of optimism shown in these threads is swiftly squashed in overwhelming force. People saying “you’re crazy” or “you’re not looking at reality” because somebody still believes in this team/doesn’t subscribe to doomsday is just not constructive and insulting (and yes from now on I will be sure not to be a hypocrite on this front).
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think there are well-respected members of this community that are undying optimists. Spidey constantly fights that battle, and I don’t think anyone could put a damper on Becca’s optimism.
Times like this… optimism is scarce, that’s true.
Please, call me F&B.
Brooks Laich’s knee put a damper on Becca’s optimism yesterday.
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by RedBirdie on Feb 7, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think another thing to keep in mind (and that keeps me sane) is that the fandom you see here isn’t necessarily going to reflect the fandom you’d see if you were watching the game with fellow commenters with a beer in your hand. Here you get analysis, which when the team looks like ass (which they have for a bit) is going to come off pretty negative. That doesn’t mean that folks aren’t hooting and hollering and getting all emotional and junk when the games are actually happening.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
I agree with this. I joined this site because I wanted to learn more about hockey. After lurking around on several forums, I came to the conclusion that J’sR has an objectivity that is lacking in other places. I personally appreciate hearing both sides of an argument. Then, yeah, grabbing a beer and screaming like crazy for the Caps. Which I am going to go do now…
It can be overkill. It seems like every Caps win is because the other team failed, not because the Caps worked hard. And conversely when we lose, it’s because the Caps suck so much and Dale Hunter’s system is the worst thing to happen to hockey in the history of ever.
I don’t place that much value on #fancystats, there are variances in what a scoring chance is (e.g. a breakaway vs. a 10 foot shot)…and the amount of quality* scoring chances giving up are lower under Hunter. We were giving up 2-on-1’s and breakaways under BB like they were in vogue. Vokoun’s save % is better under Hunter because he isn’t facing 2-on-1’s on seemingly every other play.
Let’s take shotblocking for example, which yes, can take a toll on a team in terms of cumulative injuries. But think about the psychological impact that has on a goalie though. When a team is blocking shots for a ‘minder, he’s thinking “hey, my team has my back” and he’s going to get a mental lift and perform better. As opposed to a goalie that’s facing odd-man rushes that’s feeling left out to dry…his mentality his sink and so will his performance. A helluva thing, human psychology.
I know #fancystats and conclusions drawn from them are in vogue big time in these parts, but there’s no need to squash dissidents anyone who don’t worship the stats altar. There are many, many factors that go into hockey, sports, and well, everything. But if you over-value one aspect of the picture, you’re not getting the whole picture.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think you’re confusing “squashing dissidents” with “backing up arguments with facts.” The stats paint an ugly picture because the team has been playing poorly. Stats are descriptive, not predictive, sure, so you can either point to the stats and say “I see no reason for things to change,” or you can say “I trust that the team will turn it around.” The latter is tough, because it’s pretty much faith-based, because they haven’t showed signs of turning it around, yet.
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by SmallZ827 on Feb 7, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Look I’m not saying I’m NOT concerned about being pinned in our zone for too long…that’s definitely a concern. Adjustments have to be made, in personnel (a D more mobile than Hamrlik, Erskine, and Shultz that’s not an AHL callup, please) and with systems.
I’m not making it a black and white thing…it’s not “no change” or “complete faith”. I’m just saying to look at the team with a more holistic view, and not just through the prism of #fancystats. And no, I’m not just saying that because the #fancystats aren’t flattering at the moment.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Chalking it up to “#fancystats” kind of misses the point, too; a good chunk of the commenters are using their holistic view to come to the conclusion that the team is sucky, not stats.
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by SmallZ827 on Feb 7, 2012 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And looking at it holistically I disagree. Given our injury situation, coaching/systems changes, and our position in the standings, we do not “suck”.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Poor breakouts, poor defensive positioning, poor passing are all qualitative assessments of the Caps that have been made regularly round these parts.
It depends on your definition of “suck”. If you mean the Caps aren’t going to be battling CBJ for the top pick then I think everyone here agrees. But if by suck you mean “a deeply flawed team that will struggle to go anywhere in the playoffs”, well, there’s a much better argument to be made that the Caps suck.
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by Killer_Carlson on Feb 7, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
And I think that when a lot of us say the Caps “suck” they mean it in relation (take that Joe B.) to our expectations at the beginning of the season. Relative to what we thought we were going to see, this sucks. I have no problem standing by that statement based on my eyes or advanced stats or even just looking at the standings.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I said that the team is sucky, not that the team sucks. A minute difference, perhaps.
But all I know is I look at the standings, am not satisfied with where they stand, and don’t see a whole lot of reason why that would change anytime soon. No #fancystats there.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
I don’t place that much value on #fancystats, there are variances in what a scoring chance is (e.g. a breakaway vs. a 10 foot shot)
I agree with that statement and have said so many times…
and the amount of quality* scoring chances giving up are lower under Hunter.
But that statement needs empirical support, I think.
I don’t think the shot blocking thing is as clear cut as you seem to state. Many goalies hate it when skaters try to block shots. They just want to see the puck so they don’t want their defenders in the shooting lane.
And your final paragraph most definitely applies to the people here. Many of us use advanced stats regularly, and we’ve also been trashed by the stats crowd for questioning the status quo. If you think we are the staterati then you’ll be shocked when you check out some other sites.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But that statement needs empirical support, I think
I’d love to give empirical support but alas I’m just a fan with a full-time job in a completely unrelated field. I don’t have the same resources as some of the blogheads. I watch every game though, and I started watching back in 1992 when I was old enough to understand what was happening. That’s my “eyeball” observation, but I think it’s safe to say the number of odd-man rushes have been cut down significantly.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
I’m in the same boat or I’d do the coding. I’m not even sure that kind of project is feasible right now. A binary system of coding is difficult enough, there’s no way you’re going to get people across the league to code a graded system of scoring chances in a consistent manner.
You may be right, you should be right. By all accounts that’s been a focus of DH since day 1, so hopefully he’s at least made headway in that respect.
Please, call me F&B.
And you’re right it’s not clear cut, and I didn’t mean to portray it that way. I was trying to give an example of all the effects something as simple as a shotblock can have. Yes, a failed shotblock can screen the goalie and therefore piss off the goalie, which therefore negatively affects team morale.
But in some of Vokoun’s post-game comments recently, you can hear the appreciation in his voice when he says stuff like “the team blocked a lot of shots in front of me, making my job easier”.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
Well stated. It’s gotten so bad with the Caps that even Spidey has trouble finding the positives. That said, given my personality/fandom style, I am going to remain positive a la Spidey, and go to the game tonight with hope in my heart that these guys can get their heads out of their asses and win this damn game with some dominance and flair for a change.
Ovechkin on how he can help the team: "Score MOAR goals."
by capsyoungguns on Feb 7, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
At this point, easiest thing for me is to hope that Vokoun plays out of his mind for a month or more. If not…I got nothing.
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by red army line on Feb 7, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Let’s just say I found your indignation from that a little odd (barely 14 hours removed from your past comments to the group).
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 7, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
There’s a clear difference between using a racial stereotype and venting about (what I think are) overly negative-doomdsay attitudes. And I shouldn’t have vented, as doing so undermined the points I was trying to make anyway.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
E. Nough.
If you want to discuss it further, take it off site.
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The thing is: Flash IS soft. He gets rattled very easily when met with any sort of physicality, it seemed to take him off his game and from what I recall he wasn’t very productive in any of the Capitals postseason series.
That said, I do not actually believe that being born in Europe has anything to do with it, that was tongue-in-cheek.
/squashed
Tu ne cede malis
by _Skullduggery_ on Feb 7, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Out of curiosity, what did the Caps’ chances / Corsi after Boudreau implemented the trap last year?
I’m really curious at the delta between
A) Caps under Boudreau’s Run ‘n Gun system
B) Caps under Boudreau’s Trap
C) Caps under Boudreau’s 2011 attempt at a hybrid system
D) Caps under Hunter’s Trap
Unleash the Apathy.
Ugh… making me work. Here’s the even-strength, score-tied Corsi (C and D are in the post above):
A) 51.9% (2010-11, up until the switch)
B) 50.0% (2010-11, after the switch)
C) 55.4%
D) 45.4%
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Thanks.
I’m honestly a bit shocked by C. This team did not look that good during the first few months, percentages aside.
Unleash the Apathy.
I’d agree with that.
But scoring chance data is somewhat similar (for and against).
BB’s 2011-12 Caps weren’t as good as they looked when they were winning, and weren’t as bad as they looked when they were losing. But they were a good team, getting bad breaks and the room was becoming increasingly toxic (and it began to show on-ice in some respects). If not for that last part, they probably could’ve ridden out the storm and chances are the team would be in better shape today.
It seems silly to pinpoint a single moment or closely-timed moments, but if Bruce puts out his checkers after taking the lead in Nashville… and if Laich buries the shorty in Winnipeg next time out (rather than missing the net and springing Wheeler for a goal at the other end), I think the story is markedly different.
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But the root of the problem, this team is just mentally fragile, wouldn’t have changed at all.
And even if it has somehow changed under Hunter so far, it’s hard to say it’s a net-positive when you look at the possession numbers.
Please, call me F&B.
Agreed and agreed.
But I don’t think the mental aspect can be turned around without success… and they won’t have success unless it turns around. Because I think “mental toughness” is about having something to point to, something overcome, a brutally hard goal achieved, etc., and this team doesn’t have that.
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Yeah. If only this team had like 10 guys who had won the Calder Cup, at least 3 guys with WJC Gold (and a host of lesser medals), 3 guys with World Championship Gold, and 1 Olympic Gold.
If they had that kind of success winning maybe they’d have some experience to draw on.
Please, call me F&B.
Look at how little success in other Leagues and tourneys actually translates to success in the NHL. Teams need to point to successes they’ve had together – you think anyone gives a shit about Semin’s World Championship? You think Semin does?
“Hey, guys, this is like when we came back with back-to-back shutouts down 3-2 in the first round back in Hershey.” I’m sure that carries a ton of weight in the room.
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the room was becoming increasingly toxic
Can you reveal your basis for this?
I assumed it to be the case based on the performance on the ice at the end of BB’s era, but I’m not sure I’ve seen this from anyone with the kind of access you have.
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I think it’s pretty clear (or at least easily inferred) from the available accounts of the unraveling, no?
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I hate the fact that I can’t find anything wrong in this post.
by RossingtonCollins on Feb 7, 2012 10:31 AM EST reply actions
I had no idea the possession numbers were so rosy under Boudreau.
I do agree that the situation under Bruce became untenable. The last game of his tenure, against the Buffachester Samerks if memory serves, was so horrible that it was just over.
So a different guy was needed…just not this guy, it would seem.
As for the talent level, I overestimated it badly at the beginning of the season. Knuble fell off a cliff. Ward has been a cypher. Semin hasn’t produced. Neither has AO.
It’s bad. Bad, bad, bad.
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And if this team had any mental fortitude maybe BB is still here, but they got no puck luck and the team fell apart. The decision was sealed (IMO) when BB said “I don’t know how to make them mentally tougher.”
And yeah, I feel very foolish for thinking AO was going to have another 50 goal season. Any Caps fan that ever laughed at Lecavalier’s contract needs to start looking in the mirror.
Please, call me F&B.
I think some of the lack of mental fortitude can be laid on BB. He pretty clearly was treating some of the guys with kid gloves for years and when they needed to, for lack of a better phrase, suck it up, they couldn’t. Bruce, to me, has always been a big hand-holder and when hand-holding wasn’t getting it done, they just can’t figure out how to do it alone.
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I do agree there. I also think his almost manic demeanor (especially come spring time) and incessant ranting wore the players out, to an extent.
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I’m very curious how it goes out in Anaheim. less young players, seems like less head cases, but he’s still Bruce and he’s still a players coach and they seem to love the hand-holding he’s shown so far.
April 5th (or so) rolls around every year and it’s like someone flipped a switch in that man. crazy.
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less so on the D, of course. But, yeah, a nice, experienced core that isn’t going to need the same level of developmental coaching.
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Yeah, they’ve lost the beast D they rode to the Cup. That’s obviously going to be a huge issue to overcome.
Please, call me F&B.
I’d love the Caps to have that huge issue to overcome. one day, right?
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Temperature of the room seems just right for golf in the summer.
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Temperature of the room seems just right for golf in the
summerspring.
FTFY.
Failure is always an option.
There are other possibilities
Lemme try: a sudden inability to break out of the zone. Watching our defensemen try to turn defense into offense brings me back to the Hanlon days. Possible reasons for this particular problem:
-No Green
-Dump and retreat style means more D zone time, means more tired D legs
-Man-to-man D means more tired D legs
Sort of a chicken-or-the-egg thing (what comes first…tired skaters having to dump and line change, or fresh skaters dumping and retreating then wasting energy on D), but our defensemen lack the energy, creativity, vision and/or passing ability to break out of the zone. Watch a good team and you see the difference.
The keyboard is mightier.
I do think they pass up easy breakout passes in favor of a tiny chip into the neutral zone, which the other team just scoops up and goes right back into the forecheck, way too often. The first 3-0 game against Montreal, at least the first 2 periods, was a beautiful example of making good decisions on the breakout can do…
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
It goes beyond that. There’s complete dysfunction in terms of spacing, rhythm, timing. Actually, forwards are as much to blame. As soon as a Cap wins the puck the other four, exhausted, coast about aimlessly. “Success” on D begets sweet relief instead of excitement to go on offense.
The keyboard is mightier.
If Green and Backstrom both magically returned tonight, would this team suddenly jump to the top of the east? Also, does anyone think that line stability might be a major problem? Granted I know that some line shuffling works out, but the ‘meat and potatoes’ line (or whatever the hell you guys want to call it) hasn’t existed since the first quarter of the season and we all know of Ward’s sever lack of production as of late… I’m just grabbing at straws here.
by RossingtonCollins on Feb 7, 2012 11:36 AM EST reply actions
Great piece. I really miss the aggressive scheme that the Capitals used under BB with d-men pinching in the zone. It works as long as the forwards are responsible and provide support. Now the Caps are the team that all too often get hemmed in their own zone, and it’s frustrating to watch.
Tu ne cede malis
I actually think it’s almost all the loss of Backstrom. “The Caps under Hunter were at 48.7% with Backstrom” during the period when they were making their transition into the new system. Who is supposed to “possess” the puck right now? Who’s going to hold it?
This team was already thin at center — now they’re empty. I’d happily take 9:11 with Backstrom and Green out, and just try to survive until they’re back. They’re that important to the team.
Is Joel Ward’s terrible play Hunter’s fault? Is Knuble falling off a cliff “the system?” Have Johansson or Perreault stepped up? Should I even mention Alex Semin?
No?
What can Dale Hunter do to make those guys play like they should?
I don’t think Dale Hunter’s system is “antithetical” to winning in the NHL. I don’t think the current set of healthy forwards is poorly adapted to “Dale Hunter’s system.” I think those guys are poorly adapted to winning NHL games period.
They’re not at 45% because Dale Hunter tells them to drop back. They’re at 45% because this is not a very good team right now.
Hey, atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 7, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
And yet these same guys, for the most part, were 55% under Bruce.
The loss of Backstrom is big. But it’s not 10%.
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by J.P. on Feb 7, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I guess it comes down to how much you think a coach can influence a player’s play. Caps are getting a lot of terrible performances right now. Is that the coach?
Hey, atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 7, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think some guys may not be deployed in manners in which they’re most likely to succeed, but in general… maybe?
I’m honestly at a loss to explain this season. I didn’t think they were as good as they looked at times under Boudreau or as bad. And I don’t think they should be as ugly as they are now.
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Also, with the lose of those key players, how do we know Hunter hasn’t changed the system so they can get as many points as possible?
The loss of Mike Green, Backstrom, and Ovechkin for 3 games have really complicated these numbers. When you don’t have Mike Green you really can’t move pucks through the neutral zone at the highest level. We’ve seen the zone exits the Caps have been able to execute under Hunter. When they can actually get out of the zone, they’re pretty fast up the ice.
It seems like Hunter is minimizing the loss of Backstrom and Green by playing a very opportunistic, conservative system. It almost feels like it’s in the same vain as Montreal circa 2010.
Soon the Championship with be ours, all ours!
Although if you look at aggregate numbers, especially scoring chances, one or two events swinging each game can cause pretty significant differences in how the picture looks, right?
Please, call me F&B.
No question. It’s certainly possible to overstate 55/45 here, just like it is in faceoffs. But it’s an indicator of much more – shots on goal, scoring chances, penalties drawn, offensive/defensive zone faceoffs – and, in the aggregate, it tends to prove costly.
At the risk of stating the painfully obvious, you’d rather be the 55 than the 45.
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No doubt. The point is definitely stronger with scoring chances. If the Caps are 9:11 without Baxter (and Green) then maybe they get one more per game and give up one less per game with Baxter and go 10:10. I don’t think that’s overly optimistic and in reality should be a conservative estimation. If Green ever gets healthy it changes more.
Please, call me F&B.
I half agree and half disagree.
Yes, there are a lot of underperforming players on the team right now.
At the same time, it’s hard to perform up to par when the offensive system consists of “dump and change.”
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The system is only “dump and change” because they spend :40+ in their own zone trying to clear.
Please, call me F&B.
Fair enough, but that’s likewise partially on the coaching staff.
I’ve literally never seen an NHL team that passes the puck as poorly as this version of the Caps.
Unleash the Apathy.
Yeah, I don’t get it. But how much can that be on coaching? Do they need to put guys on opposite boards and practice passing? I’m pretty sure that’s not an NHL drill. So what the hell is going on?
Please, call me F&B.
It is a combination of defensemen making horrible passes and a lack of centers with the ability to receive those horrible passes. It takes talent to receive a hard pass that is behind you and the caps don’t have those centers right now. The defensemen are holding their sticks too tight and making boneheaded decisions that lead to them getting hemmed in their own zone for too long. This might fall on the systems change and hopefully a steady Green steadies the whole defense, but as JP stated above the Caps breakout – especially against trap teams- has always been suspect.
There was a sequence in the first period against the Bruins where (I believe) Hamrlik and Knuble had full possession of the puck and the Bruins were going for a line change. . . and the Caps still couldn’t get the puck over center ice with possession. Hamrlik passed the puck to the back of Knuble’s skates, forcing him to turn around and handle the puck, which meant that he passed the puck back to the “D” rather than to the far side winger. That pass wasn’t on target, so the D had to chase it and then made another bad pass back to Hamrlik. By that point, the Boston forwards had changed and were on the forecheck. Boston forced a turnover and the Caps spent the next minute or so in their own zone. It made me want to cry.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep I saw that play and totally agree. The sad thing is I thought the defense as a whole was better at this element during the Boston game and it was one of the reasons the Caps were able to finally generate some shots. Ovechkin was a monster at picking up the bad pass and quickly turning it up the ice.
You said a mouthful. The complete inability to connect on one pass, let alone string together 4 or 5 of them, is both baffling and glaring.
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Considering Schultz’s treatment I think Hunter is really hammering the defensemen to make the “right” play and in turn they are thinking too much and or playing tense. Carlson being a prime example.
I think Schultz’s treatment likely has to do with what Hunter thinks of Schultz in general.
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I think it’s reflective of Hunter’s philosophy for the D.
I think he’d rather his defense be aggressive (and make mistakes borne of aggression), than be passive. Hence, Wideman and Carlson keep playing despite mistakes, while Schultz can’t get ice time.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 7, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sins of commission rather than sins of omission. To each his own, if those sins are relatively equal in number and impact. But in this case they’re not – 55 > 4.
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I am trying to extrapolate that the “one mistake and your out” philosophy that is being is exhibited by Schultz is probably being preached in some form to the rest of the defense.
Preached maybe, practiced no. If so, Carlson would have been eating nachos already.
My point was Hunter has never liked Schultz’s game. I think that has more to do with the Sarge not playing than anything else.
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Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
Don’t disagree with you on either Carlson’s play or Hunter’s assessment of Schultz’s play. I am just trying to figure out why the team can’t seem to make an effective first pass out of the defensive zone.
You said a mouthful.
Which is a huge improvement over leaving a mouthful. In my sink.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I don’t see how it could almost all be about the loss of Backstrom – there was a 6.7% drop from the Caps under BB to the Caps under DH with Backstrom. Losing Backstrom definitely hurts, but there was something going on before that. The team is, and has been, underperforming, but the new system is a part of the problem – and it seems to me to be a major one.
Failure is always an option.
Too many new parts and not the right mix of new parts on a team that experience little personnel change over several years of (regular season) success?
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
What kills me is blaming Carlson’s poor play on the Hunter system. How is Hunter’s system forcing him to whiff on outlet passes or pass into 3 opposition forwards instead of making the simple play up the boards? Thankfully he’s looked better lately.
The Hamrlik signing was a flop, despite his better play under Hunter. Was it really Bruce’s fault though that Hamrlik was (seemingly) so terrible? Of course not.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well I think that Carlson’s play wasn’t that good under BB either. He’s just squarely in a sophomore slump. We’ll see if he can rebound this year (unlikely) and whether he rebounds next year (likely). I do think it’s surprising that Carlson hasn’t looked good under Hunter given their past successes together.
I also think Harmlik turned the corner before BB got fired, but Hunter’s system is much friendlier to Hamrlik so I’m not shocked that he’s played better.
Please, call me F&B.
I agree completely, I think Carlson looked off beginning with the preaseason.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 7, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Much of this is on GM
First we are trying to build a offensive, new-NHL team. Then with those players we decide we’re going to play defense. Then we get a new coach who apparently does not like a good portion of our roster.
$3M for Joel Ward, $6M+ for Poti and Hamr, plus Schultz sitting out for a month at almost $3M. We’re an over the cap team with a NYI talent level. We would be better off missing the playoffs and overhauling in the off season.
Keepers: Ovi, Baxter, MJ, Laich, Brouwer, Green (on QO), Alzner, Carlson
Everyone else should be fair game to be gone. Then decide what kind of team you are going to be, then get the appropriate coach (DH or otherwise) to lead the team, then surround him with as many useful players as you can. And if GM isn’t up to it, find someone who is.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
by macvechkin on Feb 7, 2012 1:08 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed (and, frankly, I think the “sell high” window on him has passed, but that’s neither here nor there).
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Disagree on Eakin and MJ. They aren’t "core’ in my mind, especially Eakin. Caps could fairly easily replace a guy Eakin and MJ is a 3rd line center.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
A little early to be down on MJ isn’t it? Plus if MJ is the 3rd best center on the team, that’s a good thing.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
I like MJ. But if his potential is 3C – that’s not good………
by CapsDegenerate on Feb 7, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
It’s worked for Jordan Staal (and no, they’re not particularly similar players… just noting the position on the depth chart doesn’t necessarily equate to “not good”).
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And one of the things you hear about the Caps from teams across the league is that they don’t have a lot of speed. If they want to become a faster team I don’t think moving MoJo will help that.
Please, call me F&B.
True. Chimera and MoJo are the only two skaters that pop up in my mind when it comes to the Caps roster and speed.
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And I agree with this. The Caps shed some speed and added bangers. It’s a bit ironic that they can’t win a board battle to save their lives, though.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Agreed. No reason to give up on MJ as a prospect, even if he turns out to be nothing more than a 3C. The issue with him is that GMGM gambled that he could be a legit 2C for this season, and that gamble failed. Which is to say, the problem isn’t MJ so much as it is GMGM’s failure/refusal to definitively solve the 2C problem.
"Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see." - Schopenhauer
by capsfaninexile on Feb 7, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Where did I say I was down on him? I said he wasn’t what I considered to be a “core” player. Plenty of guys around the league who I like, but don’t consider vital to a team’s future.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
While I tend to agree about the “core” nature of either player, what’s the point of moving out young talent that’s cost- and contract-controlled for a while? It wouldn’t make much sense (depending on the return, of course).
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There is none of course unless as you allude to you got offered something in return you couldn’t refuse.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
I think what Carl’s saying is that if CBJ asks for Eakin or MoJo in return for Carter, he’d trade them. If they asked for Kuznetsov, he’d say nyet.
Unleash the Apathy.
sorry, let me clarify…………i have no problem with MJ being a 3C…………I just meant that with no solid 2C in sight – I am down on the organization’s center depth.
we don’t exactly have crosby and malkin taking care of 1C and 2C to allow MJ to fit into 3C.
(and i know, thanks to that terrorist David Steckel – neither do the Pens)
by CapsDegenerate on Feb 7, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
i think this is a reply fail…….this should be up a few spots
by CapsDegenerate on Feb 7, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. And so MoJo gets forced into a role in which he’s not really equipped to succeed. It’s happened a lot in this organization over the recent years.
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You mean Boyd Gordon wasn’t 1C material?
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
he was last night……he scored, correct?
by CapsDegenerate on Feb 7, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
He did. A beauty shorthanded.
At times this season Gordo’s been forced to play on all 4 lines due to injuries/absences. He’s now playing what would be traditionally called a 3C here with Kyle Chipchura playing the 4C.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
And playing it quite well. Very good fit for Gordo in Phoenix.
:: sniffle ::
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Yes, he has been. Don’t know where they would be without him. The team was a mess when Hanzal and Gordo were both out at the same time.
Boyd’s season stat line
6, goals, 19 assists, +12, 56.8 FO % in 46 games.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
MVP!
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Ha. He was actually on my initial list for consideration at the halfway point, but didn’t make the final cut. If nothing else, he’s been an upgrade over Vern Fiddler.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
I lol’ed. Wings having a terrible time with ex-Caps 4Cs scoring against them this season (can’t recall if Steckel’s was also SH)
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It wasn’t. I’m curious why he was out there with Kessel and Lupul though.
Failure is always an option.
incomplete line change?
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Is MJ90 a 3C? I am skeptical at the moment. Bad on the dot, bad on the boards and in the corners, doesn’t seem to have good sense of defensive positioning…
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Except he doesn’t shoot enough to be a W. I guess he could change that.
I’m a bit up in the air about him. As JP notes, he’s young and cheap so there’s no use tossing him in the trash bin, but I’m not sure what his logical role is.
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That’s not really a problem. There are wingers who are setup men – MSL being the first who comes to mind for me. Most wingers are shooters, but it’s not a necessity. If he was on a line with a center who was a good scorer, he could certainly use his passing ability to set up his linemates.
Failure is always an option.
This year MSL has 8.9 Fenwick events/60, and MoJo has 5.91.
Assuming I have done the math correctly, anyway.
This doesn’t take into account PP time, zone start, or anything like that, of course, but as a rough and dirty look, MSL seems like he shoots quite a bit more than MJ90.
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I’m not directly comparing him to MoJo – just pointing him out as an example of a winger who gets more of his points off passing than shooting. Johansson has shown that he can make amazing passes, and it’s not going to matter if he’s at wing or center for that. I just don’t see his skill set as fitting in at center very well.
Failure is always an option.
It depends on what you want your 3rd line to be. If it’s going to be a shutdown line, MoJo is ill-equipped. If it’s going to be a speedy energy line, perhaps.
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But who are the speedy, energetic wings to pair with him?
I guess things look disjointed no matter what when the team isn’t going well, but MoJo’s failure to blossom into a legit 2C is making the Caps’ roster look pretty disfunctional.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Chimera and Eakin, in the here-and-now? The line would get slaughtered in possession, though.
Did anyone really expect MoJo to be a legit 2C a year-and-a-half into the League? Hell, look at Sam Gagner – a much higher pick with much more experience, and there are still significant doubts (in my mind, at least) as to whether he’s capable of being a 2C on a team with any real expectations.
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As J.P. said, MarJo, whether ‘core’ or not, deserves to be getting top 6 minutes now to develop. It makes no sense to dump cheap players with the potential to develop while committing even more contract dollars to, yet, more unproductive forwards with no upside. Barring any significant offer, for him, then he needs to be considered as a ‘candidate’ for the top 6 (center or LW) with Ovi, Backis, and Brouwer the ‘core’ components. That gives flexibility for him to play different places plus a lot of trade room for GMGM to bring in other players to jack up the top two lines.
As J.P. said, MarJo, whether ‘core’ or not, deserves to be getting top 6 minutes now to develop.
I said that? Where?
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So basically if Tom Poti heals we will win the Stanley Cup? That’s what I’m reading………
In all seriousness………..I’m worried that the team’s identity/confidence is so FUBAR’d that almost a complete rebuild is necessary (or some sort of major “mental reset”)……
You could argue GMGM had his chance and needs to go. You could argue that Ovi is already past his prime. You could argue Semin and Green should be let go. Who knows when Backstrom will be healthy again.
Most role players have bloated contracts. The only good news is there is limited long-term exposure on D.
The coach doesn’t fit the personnel. Maybe we have a few good prospects in the system, but nothing to stop my paranoia……
The team has no idea if it is coming or going. Am I too jaded here?
If you were any more jaded, Aerosmith would be suing you right now.
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by winterion on Feb 7, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with you that the team identity/confidence is lacking, I just think you are overreacting that there needs to be a wholesale rebuild of a team that is a year removed from winning the conference. How about something to rebuild some of that confidence? Trade away the “Eeyore” of the room perhaps? A winning steak would probably solve anything.
A winning steak would probably solve anything.
Nothing repairs a mood quite like winning.
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Since the seven-game winning streak to start the season, the Caps have one four-game and one three-game winning streak. In each of the past two seasons they had winning streaks of nine or more games. I’d bet a shiny nickel they don’t have half of that in them (say, a five-game streak) at this point. They play all too close to the margin to string that many in a row together.
If you've read this far...seek help.
ok. and nothing makes a hockey team happy like a Stanley Cup. where exactly do you think this winning streak will come from?
i agree, though, that I hope we are “one trade away” or “one healed player” away from being “back to normal” (not sure what i mean by that…….just better than mediocre) – but I am starting to wonder if that is all it takes……..
(Try to reply to the comment to which you’re replying – makes following the conversation much easier.)
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one would think i’ve never used a computer before…..oh well…..
by CapsDegenerate on Feb 7, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s been shown that the problem isn’t tinkering with the “role” players, but that the core needs outright help. Part of this may be Ted and GMGM, relying too much on a “they’ll learn through experience” plan instead of leveraging what we thought was a deep prospect pool to bring in the “right” player(s).
"Money talks. I listen."
Not a lot you can do with “core,” by by “core” you mean YG+Laich. I’ll be shocked if Semin is here next year, but three others have difficult contracts to move, if you were so inclined, and I don’t think Green is leaving.
As for the rest, I’ll beat that dead horse again…the trick has never been drafting an Ovechkin or a Backstrom. If you two top-five picks, you’re in the wrong line of business. The trick is building a team around that, and in the seventh season since the lockout, I’m not convinced this crowd has done such a good job of it. It’s always looked good on paper. On the ice when it mattered? Not so much.
If you've read this far...seek help.
that is, if you flub two top-five picks, you’re in the wrong line of business.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Totally agree with you on failure to ‘build around,’ especially in terms of forwards. So, in my mind, we therefore have only two “core” forwards: Ovi & Nicky. Then, you need a complement to those styles. I think Brouwer is the best choice for that role now. That leaves 3 in the expanded ‘core’, then. Now, if Brouwer is given this ‘role,’ then I think both Laich (sorry, folks) and MarJo need to be considered as ‘adjustable’ pieces to whomever else GMGM brings in to make a much-needed bonafide NHL top 6. That means, one or both, could be slipped down to the 3rd line depending on the quality and ‘type’ of other top 6 forward brought in to supplement 8-19 and (20).
The trick is building a team around [the core], and in the seventh season since the lockout, I’m not convinced this crowd has done such a good job of it.
I disagree. In my view, the core players have failed management. The team has been candid about its philosophy of committing the bulk of their cap room to these guys (YG+Laich, and to an extent Alzner, Carlson, Neuvy), and what do they have to show for it? Less than half of the production you’d expect. That’s just bad luck, or inexplicable/unexpected regression.
If the young guns (sidenote: haven’t they graduated to being called Big Guns?) are humming, the role players are just fine. If you expect role players to carry a team when your big guns’ production has halved, your expectations are too high.
The keyboard is mightier.
I don’t see how strictly from a monetary perspective one could associate Alzner, Carlson and Neuvirth to anything the core does. Combined they make just a little more than a convalescing Poti does right now, and at least in Neuvirth’s case, Vokoun fell into the team’s lap.
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Strictly monetarily, you’re correct at this moment. I anticipate, however, that those players are likely to be locked up long term eventually, thus are similarly unmovable roster pieces to be built around.
The keyboard is mightier.
I think they’re each probably a contract or two from getting Green money (NPI), but I think now the team isn’t 2009-10 scoring that some recalibrating of success (or expectations?) on ELCs and 2nd deals with the club is in order.
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I agree with the sentiment that the organization should be getting more out of players like the ones mentioned.
If you see what looks a lot like a culture of creeping underachievement, then it doesn’t necessarily matter what one player comes in or goes out unless said player(s) induce a shock to the culture.
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
I think generalizations are a bit dangerous here. In terms of ‘production,’ I would suggest only Semin and Ovi have ‘failed’ management. Nicky hasn’t. Greener, in this respect, I am not so sure, but it seems to me when he isn’t injured, has lived up to his ‘expectations.’
But in actuality the defense of this club is very young depending on who you dress between 25 (w/o Hammer) and 26.8 (w Hammer and Erskine). Compare that to Boston’s and Detroit’s starting 6 who average 30. The youngest starter on those two teams is Ericsson who is 24. The Caps have three starters younger than that.
Apropos of nothing so far, is that Tom Brokaw behind the glass?
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
Winning trophies on your home field? DC United's done that. Twice. Help Keep United in DC so they can receive a fair deal on a lease and help develop a path to build a stadium with local investment and incentives.
I don’t think so, but does look quite a bit like him.
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In retrospect I think it was a mistake to bring in a rookie coach. During the bad days of the Bruce Era (usually May or June) , I always wondered what a generic, disciplined, re-tread veteran coach would do for this group of players.
Then I look around and realize there really weren’t even decent retreads available, which is kind of surprising.
Hiring a rookie coach is like a mini-rebuild, unless you get lucky with your Bylsma or even Boucher in Tampa who’s done ok in the playoffs.
So… I guess we need time, and a handful of new support players.
Or you clean house.
Or you get a stud 2C from somewhere magical.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
It’s okay though because all of those post-lockout Cup winners haven’t been great puck possessors either. For example…uh…give me a minute…uh…well, no one.
There’s zero intimidation factor with this team right now and that’s a shame. 19/52 being out should not lead to such sagging play. It goes to show how little the supporting cast can be relied upon to up their game and how this team has a lot to learn in cutting out their lazy shortcut habits.
•Thought #3: There’s a learning curve associated with Hunter’s system. Since he’s coached 30 games, let’s look at 10-game segments since Hunter took over: 50.6%, 43.8%, 41.9%. Verdict: Yeah, that ain’t it.
So what this is telling me is that the Caps are becoming increasingly proficient at playing losing hockey. Ugh.
I don't want to work, I want to hang on the blog all day.
They’re doing the banana split down the learning curve. Great start for Newb Gingrich.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 7, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think part of the problem is that with recent roster moves we’ve downgraded in overall team speed, and in Hunter’s system which I consider the hockey equivalent of rope-a-dope, if you wanna sit back and take a beating but then at the opportune time counter attack you’re going to need speed to breakout of the defensive zone especially when we sit so deep in our own zone and try to block shot after shot, and our team isn’t built that way.
If con is the opposite of pro, then what is the opposite of progress?
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