Why the Caps Should Trade for Jeff Carter
by anders1115 on Feb 6, 2012 2:52 PM EST
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PrintThis is my first Fan Post so try and be gentle. :)
The "Problem":
It has been discussed repeatedly over the past 2-3 years that the Caps need a legit 2nd line center. This role has been stop-gapped with the likes of Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson, Mattieu Perrault, Jason Arnott, and Eric Belanger to name but a few. The problem is none of these guys are legitimate 2nd line centers.
While it can be argued that Marcus Johansson is the Caps 2nd line center "of the future", he's not ready for this duty yet.
The Solution:
Jeff Carter is a big, borderline elite natural center. Drafted in 2003 as the 11th overall pick by the Philadelphia Flyers, in his first six years with the Flyers he amassed 181 goals and 162 assists in 461 games. He played in 82 games two years, 81 in one year, 80 in another year, 74, and 62 games. He had a positive +/- rating in 5 of the 6 years he was with Philadelphia.
Carter was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets and has had injuries this season, limiting him to 31 games, where he has 11 goals and 7 assists on a very bad CBJ team.
Columbus is sitting in last place in the Western Conference and all rumors point to them being sellers with Jeff Carter on the trade block.
The Capitals should make a play for Carter as he will solve the 2nd line center problem the Caps have for years to come. The only problem with Carter is his contract. Carter makes $5,272,727 annually against the salary cap, and will continue to do so until 2022. So the Capitals would have to move a contract or two in order to free up salary cap space needed for Carter's contract. This shouldn't be a huge problem, however, as simply trading Semin for picks would free up $6.7 million.
Columbus gave up Voracek, a first round pick, and a second round pick to get Carter and it should take less than this to get Carter. As they are rebuilding, they would likely want picks/prospects in return for Carter. The Caps have picks in this years draft they could use in a trade with Columbus for Carter and a lot of prospects that could be potential trade bait.
Ottawa Sun's Bruce Garrioch speculates ($) that if Nash goes on the market [NOTE: highly unlikely], the cost would be a "top young player, a prospect and a first-round pick." If it would take a top young player, a prospect, and a first-round pick to get Nash, it would certainly take less than that to land Carter (perhaps a prospect, a 2nd and 3rd).
As noted, the Capitals would have to move a contract or two on the current roster in order to free up salary cap space for Carter's contract. Simply trading Semin ($6.7 million) for picks (which could be sent to Columbus) to another team would free up the space needed for Carter's contract and would leave about $1.5 million that could be used to resign one of the Caps RFA/UFA contracts and Carter's production would likely come close to replacing Semin's production. They are many other scenarios that could be imagined so I don't think Carter's cap hit would be a huge problem to overcome provided the Caps are willing to give up one player (Semin) or multiple players for picks.
Carter Trade Upsides:
Big, borderline elite natural center
Productive (30-40 goal scorer)
Not a defensive liability
Shouldn't have to give up a lot to get him
Would likely have to trade Semin for picks to make room for Carter's contract*
Carter Trade Downside:
Contract length
Health (?)
Would likely have to trade Semin for picks to make room for Carter's contract*
Landing Carter would give the Caps three long-term contracts totaling about $22 million
*yes, this could be taken as a upside or downside
Possibly Trade Scenario:
1) Trade Semin to another contender looking for a top-6 forward for picks/prospects (Kings?)
2) Trade picks + prospect to Columbus for Carter
End result: we get SOME value for Semin before he enters UFA at the end of the season and remove his $6.7 million cap hit. We lose some combination of picks/prospect(s) for Carter. As long as we don't acquire any other roster players in these moves, we end up with $1.5 million LESS cap hit (which can be used to either acquire someone else or in re-signing a current roster player), no net change in roster contracts, and acquire a borderline elite, 30-40 goal scoring natural center.
Conclusion:
Despite the potential downsides, the biggest being adding another long-term contract, trading for Carter is something the Caps can (in terms of having the picks/prospects needed) and should do because a legitimate second line center is a need the Caps cannot continue to avoid addressing. Carter would fill this need admirably and in my opinion, the upsides to making this move outweigh the downsides. And as an added bonus, until Backstrom is healthy, Carter would be a better first line center replacement than Perrault or Johansson.
Making this trade happen likely comes down to one question: Which is a better investment/more valuable to your long-term success as a team?
A) a $6.7 million, inconsistent and enigmatic 30-40 goal scoring winger, who is an UFA at the end of the season, and likely won't sign a multi-year deal
or
B) a $5.27 million, 30-40 goal scoring center on a long-term contract?
For the Caps, I would argue that B) is a better investment and more valuable to their long-term success.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Good job. I would argue that there are more potential downsides than just his contract – whether earned or not, Carter has a reputation for not having the greatest attitude. Is that something we want to deal with a few years down the road on a team that ALREADY seems to have such a fragile mentality? There’s a reason he was traded away from Philly.
Also, the long-term contract is huge. I feel like GMGM – and the readers are at the Rink – are extremely wary of taking on contracts like Carters. They can and will come back and bite you in the ass.
All of that might be worth it if it truly gives us a legitimate 2C to be around and productive while we still have 8 and 19, because as you said, it’s a need that really hasn’t been addressed, and this season I think has shown us how vital secondary scoring is. That’s a big if though – and if it doesn’t pan out, we have an albatross of a contract on the books until AFTER Ovi’s expires.
Warning: I started watching hockey in 2007. So, yeah.
In terms of attitude, I can’t think of anyone who would enjoy playing for Columbus. I’m not saying that it’s ok for that to happen but if he’s got any shot to show that he has a better attitude about playing hockey then it would surely need to be with a team at least above .500 and not already eliminated from the playoff picture.
by RossingtonCollins on Feb 6, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
His attitude problems extend back to his time in Philly though. I don’t see why anyone would think they’d disappear if he got traded here. It’s possible, but I’d call it unlikely.
Failure is always an option.
Oh. Didn’t know that, I just assumed this attitude was a result of playing for a shitty team.
by RossingtonCollins on Feb 6, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Remember Lav’s Dry Island. Apparently Richards and Carter were among a group that didn’t participate, but I also read (probably via BSH) that the story was a bit bogus and reporter-driven since both of the guys with their reputation of strong partying and drinking were easy targets.
I got the impression at the time that the trade was more the result of a divide between the player and Laviolette, and that management went with Lav.
Despite my uncertainly about Carter’s attitude and what he’d be like in the locker-room, I do have sympathy for how he felt about the trade and being with the Blue Jackets. Thinking he was part of the long term plan for the Flyers and then find out he’s traded to a struggling team, but not finding out first from the Flyer’s management. I recall reading that he heard about the trade before management discussed it with him, was shocked and went into hiding for a couple of days before discussing it publicly. Trades are a fact of life, but his was a bit of messy affair.
Ovechkin on how he can help the team: "Score MOAR goals."
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW my read was that it had less to do with Lav and more to do with Pronger and his ultimate ascendance to the captaincy. It’s all speculation though.
"You do that, you go to the box, you know. Two minutes, by yourself, you know and you feel shame" -Denis Lemieux
Aye—tis only speculation. And I forgot about Pronger. And now Pronger has trouble remembering.
Ovechkin on how he can help the team: "Score MOAR goals."
by capsyoungguns on Feb 7, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Ovie’s current deal may very well doom this team. Ovie + Carter deals on one team would most certainly doom this team. I would never advise this trade UNLESS it’s Nash + Carter for Ovie + Semin.
What sucks is that with Ovie’s drop in production and current contract, he’s just about impossible to trade. While I would hate to see him go because I think he can still produce when it matters and I would hate to see this team without him, I’m starting to hate to see this team with his contract. (I don’t believe his drop in production is all his fault.)
While everyone would love to have the “perfect” team, and I agree we could absolutely use another C right now, Carter will not by himself make the 2nd line good. Carter + Semin might (or Carter+ Ovie and move Nick to Semin’s pivot). Carter + any 2 other players on this team doesn’t scare anyone, and soon we’ll complain about his production like we complain about Semin’s.
Buffalo is known for making ungodly bad moves with any player who deserves over 5M. I’d see what it would take to get Roy over here.
Good point.
Right now we don’t have much money tied up in our defense – lots of ELCs and expiring contracts coming up. Who knows what will happen with Mike Green – whether he stays or goes, how much he’s going to garner on the market, how much we pay him, etc. Regardless, taking on Carter’s contract could tie our hands behind our backs when it comes to filling other needs in the near future. We haven’t even mentioned goaltending.
Warning: I started watching hockey in 2007. So, yeah.
But next year, Carter and Kuznetsov plus ? might make an interesting 2nd.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
I would be shocked if Kuz commits to NA before the current season is done. If I were him, I’d stay in KHL for another year, get bigger and see what happens with the coaching fallout and make sure Ovie is still here.
I think Carter is the type of player the Caps shouldn’t trade for, and mainly for 2 reasons.
1. The Caps can’t afford another long, expensive contract. If they signed Carter, they would have slightly over $21.5M tied up in 3 players until 2020. Under the current cap, that’s nearly 1/3 of the cap.
2. Carter’s attitude issues. He was a problem in Philly, which was part of why he got traded, and he’s a problem in Columbus. I don’t think that will change if he gets traded here. This team has enough problems without introducing an element like that into the locker room.
The Caps definitely need a 2C, but Carter could very well cause more problems than he would solve. I think the same thing as FFS in terms of another option – Derek Roy would be worth a look. While he doesn’t score as many goals as Carter, he tends to get nearly as many points due to his assists. Aside from last season, he hasn’t had any major health issues.
Failure is always an option.
While I agree that Roy would be worth a look, I have to wonder how well he’d play along side Ovie or Semin. He doesn’t seem to play well on a line with Vanek. He’s also on the small side at 5-9.
I don’t see him playing alongside Ovie or Semin. I see Roy as 2C with Semin gone. As for his size, that doesn’t matter too much. He’s small but quick and talented, and has shown that he can make it despite the disadvantage of his small size.
Failure is always an option.
As far as I know Buffalo has 3.8 million in the way of cap space according to capgeek. Would Semin’s contract be low enough to fit under the cap (assuming you see him going to Buffalo in exchange for Roy)?
It would – Roy has a cap hit of $4M, so they could take on the extra $2.7M. That wasn’t the assumption I was going on though. If the Capgeek numbers are right, the Caps could fit Roy under the cap as is.
Failure is always an option.
Where do you see Semin going? I read near the beginning of the season that Detroit was a possibility, but they look to be in the market for a goalie right now.
Aside from last season, he hasn’t had any major health issues.
Yeah, but that health issue from last season was pretty major. I think it’s affecting his play this year. After being over a .9 ppg player the 3 years before his injury, he’s gone to .5 ppg this year. Statistically, he’s producing less than Johansson. Until he proves he can return to his pre-injury form, I don’t see him as an upgrade from Mackan.
by Flash in the Pan on Feb 7, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Is Carter’s contract really that much of an albatross? Yeah, it’s a long-term contract, but it’s long-term at a pretty reasonable cap hit of $5.27 million/year. Unless Carter’s production absolutely drops off a cliff, we should be able to trade him in the future if needed.
And would Carter’s $5.27 million/year really tie the Caps hands any more than Semin’s $6.7 million/year, assuming he keeps re-signing for 1-year deals? Assuming we trade Semin, we have to get someone to replace his production. 30-40 goal scorers (especially centers) are pretty hard to come by at less than $5 million a year, no?
RE: Carter not making the 2nd line better “by himself”, I disagree. He’s a perennial 30-40 goal scorer and I see no reason why he can’t keep that up. He’s better than any options we have at the moment and any second line with him on it would need defensive attention from the other team, even if Semin were not on that line.
I just don’t see how adding Carter and subtracting Semin doesn’t make the second line better. All other things remaining equal, I’d rather pay $1.5 million less for a 30-40 goal scoring physical, natural center than $1.5 million more for a 30-40 goal scoring enigmatic Russian sniper who is inconsistent in his play.
Attitude. This may be concern that I didn’t consider. Good point everyone who brought that up.
Also, another negative: his no-trade clause kicks in next season, so trading him IF he is a problem would be a problem.
I know I’ve read and heard that Carter’s no-trade clause is nullified since he was traded before it took effect, but I don’t know if that’s true. Maybe some of the savvier experts in NHL contract law could confirm.
Ovechkin on how he can help the team: "Score MOAR goals."
by capsyoungguns on Feb 6, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
Well, according to that Bleacher Report:
“An issue with Carter’s unhappiness lies with the fact that his no-trade clause kicks in next season, so if a team were to trade for him before the deadline, chances are he would be with that team for quite some time.”
So, at least according to them, it’s not nullified.
The way I understand the rules, if traded before the extension with the clause goes into effect, the new team has a choice. Recent reports about Carter and Columbus confirm this and note Columbus did not agree to the NTC. See Aportzllne’s twitter as one source.
Here’s a quick edit of something I wrote recently before the confirmation when I was discussing with someone; hope it’s not too confusing and repetitive:
See 11.8 (a) in the CBA.
Using 2 cases, Vokoun from Nashville to Florida and Carter from Philly to Columbus, these cases are not the same as when a clause is in effect and a player is traded.
When Vokoun was traded from Nashville to Florida it was after he had signed a contract extension, but before the extension went into effect since he was traded pre July 1; the contract extension included an NMC. Same thing happened with Jeff Carter when he was traded from Philadelphia to Columbus this past summer; the contract included an NTC (varied by time in the contract how extensive an NTC, IIRC).
In the case where a player waives an already in effect NMC or NTC in order for a trade to go through, the NMC or NTC carries with the player to the new team. Nothing changes. For example, Dan Boyle after his trade from TBL to SJS.
However, that is not what happens when a player is traded in a situation like Vokoun or Carter. In those cases, which is what we are discussing, the acquiring team has to make a decision about whether to honor the NTC or NMC and notify the league and other parties involved because the extension including the clause had not kicked in at the time of the trade.
Also, here’s one article citing Howson about Carter’s NTC around the time of the trade.
Devil you Know vs. Demon you Don't...
First, my issue with the situation, then my issue with Carter:
Argue all you want about Semin’s production being down, but first realize that the ENTIRE TEAM’s production is down since Bruce “let someone get in his head” and told him to hold the O back. Semin is consistently @80% of Ovie’s production and he’s right there again this year. We know what we’re going to get out of him.
Here’s my issue with Carter. His 30-40 goal campaigns were largely on a good team with a smattering of talent on more than one line. In CBUS, he’s on a fairly bad team, but on a line that arguably has more talent than any he saw in PHI (Nash and Prospal are his most common mates in his 31 games), one would think his production would have increased.
Sure, he’s hurt, sure, he’s unhappy, but he’s not keeping pace with Nash and Prospal. Add that to the fact that his CORSI numbers are the worst of his 3 linemates does not give me a warm and fuzzy.
If Carter is pouty and unhappy where he is now, what makes you all think he’d turn it around here in DC? This team resembles CBJ more closely than it does PHI right now.
Not so sure I’d trade one known quantity for an unknown quantity right now.
One other factor is the rising salary cap, which will make that contract more palatable as time goes on.
Honesly, I think $5.27 Million is already a pretty good deal for a healthy Jeff Carter. The guy is a pretty good defensive player on top of the offense he brings.
I’ll defer to doctors on whether a “healthy Jeff Carter” is something the Caps could reasonably expect to acquire.
Hey, atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Feb 6, 2012 11:08 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Whereas I originally thought I may be in favor of this, a closer look at his career makes me feel like he is already on the downswing. Certainly not to the extent that this year’s disaster has been, but probably overvalued for what he is going to produce at a $5M + cap hit. Seems hasty to go all-in on Carter at this time.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
Pass on Carter
Honestly, I’d rather see George find a good 3C who’s undervalued on a team deep with pivots—like Dave Bolland, for example—who can play up and down the lineup as needed, at about half the salary. CHI is shopping for goalies too…
Cross check and all call.
by bigonetimer on Feb 7, 2012 7:45 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Ask a Chicago fan about Bolland – he’s not undervalued there at all. They know just how good he is, and they’d ask a lot for him.
Personally, I think Matthew Lombardi would be a good option. His trade cost would be a fraction of Bolland’s, probably in the 3rd-4th rounder area. If he continues the improvement he’s shown lately, he could be a pretty capable replacement for Laich while he’s out, maybe even good enough to allow Laich to be a 2nd line winger when he gets healthy. Not to mention, having Chimera and Lombardi on the same line would be ridiculous. Put Mackan on the other wing, and that’s easily the fastest line in hockey.
by Flash in the Pan on Feb 7, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I forgot about Lombardi. When healthy he’s a decent player. I think the Caps were looking at him when he was a free agent, but his asking price was too high. The Toronto center I keep hearing about is Mikhail Grabovski and how he may be on the block this year since he will be a free agent.
Grabovski won’t be on the block. He’s a significant part of the Leafs’ offense, and they’re looking at a playoff spot this year, so there’s no reason for them to trade him. The only reason they’d be looking to move Lombardi is to open up cap space to makes more additions at the deadline.
by Flash in the Pan on Feb 7, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
DGB on the Deadline
It includes info about Jeff Carter and at least one “enigmatic” Russian we all know…
http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2012/02/twelve-big-names-who-could-be-on-move.html
Occasionally reporting from Section 421 of the Verizon Center...
The issue is what exactly does Columbus want for him. I have seen some people say they won’t get rid of him unless they can get something better then what they gave up which was a very top prospect, a top 6 pick, and a 3rd rounder. I had seen some places (Steve Hindel on Hockeybuzz for one) saying the Caps would have to give up Laich plus a first for him. Which there is no way I would do.
With Columbus having the All-Star game next year they can’t go into a full rebuild mode and not be competitive next year. So anything we give them will have to include something that they can use this year and next at the NHL level no just prospects that will help at some point. I was thinking something along the lines or Eakin, Schultz, and a 1st to get Carter and even then I am not sure if the Jackets would be interested in that but I think that will be the least we can offer and still get him.
As much as I like Laich, his $4.7 is almost as much as Carter’s cap hit, but Carter has been a legit 40 goal scorer while Laich has not.
by mkyan978 on Feb 7, 2012 11:09 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Exactly. At the risk of being excorciated again, I think Laich is the perfect trade bait. As noted, their contracts, while not equal, cancel each other out enough in terms of dollars and length. Carter has way more offensive upside. Laich has not – let’s face it – been able to solidify a top 6 slot ‘core’ slot for 4 yours, despite impressive versatility. And most important of all, if Carter’s extra curricular activities are true, he can substitute in our vicarious thrills for Brooks and the ladies. So, Brooks + (Semin) (another pick coming back); Brooks + Schultz; Brooks + Eakin + low rounder or Kundratek; etc. but no 1st rounder.
How do their contracts cancel each other out? We’d have Carter under contract for SIX more seasons than Laich. If Carter’s contract only went as far as Laich’s, or 1 or 2 years past, I’d be all for using Brooksie as trade bait but until 2022… no thanks
Warning: I started watching hockey in 2007. So, yeah.
If we are worrying about 6 years from now when making a decision at this years trade deadline we are thinking wrong. While I don’t want this team to do a Blackhawks go for the win this year then dismantle the team but we can’t be worrying about 2017-2018 now or we will be doomed to be in this same position every year until then.
I'd rather trade for Stastny
Given the potential downsides w/Carter (injury, contract, questions about attitude/chemistry), I’d say there more risk here than I’m comfortable with. I’d be concerned with the fact that despite the fact that he’s a considerable talent, it would be his third team in two seasons.
I completely agree w/the premise that the Caps are desperately in need of a 2nd line, playmaking center. Someone like Paul Stastny fits the bill for me, with great faceoff numbers, good turnover ratios and most importantly, solid puck possession skills.
The problem with Stasny is the $6.6M salary for the next two years. $6.6M is a lot to be paying a #2 center.
Someone I saw mentioned us being interested in and at first I was not happy about but of late have been coming around to is Antoine Vermette. In the range of 20G and 50Pts almost every year. Likely will be much cheaper then Carter (was traded for a second and Pascal Leclaire). Could probably get him for just a second or at worst a second and a average at best prospect. Has three more years left on his deal at $3.75 cap hit which is a lot better then Carter or Stastny. Is 29 so isn’t an over the hill rental type like Arnott was. Is very good in the faceoff dot 56.5%, second on CBJ in SH TOI per game and is defensively sound. Only has 25 giveaways which while it leads the Jackets would only be 9th on the Caps. Yes he has a horrible +/- this year and has been on the ice for a lot of goals against but so have everyone in Columbus which is part of the reason they are the worst team in the league.
He might not be a carry the line on his back guy but with the salaries of Backstrom and Ovie on the first line and some good guys we should try to resign on the back end we can’t really afford a $5m+ second line center.
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