The Noon Number
by J.P. on Feb 23, 2012 12:00 PM EST
in The Noon Number
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.119 - Caps' points percentage (2-18-1) this season in games in which they've allowed four goals or more, with the more recent of the two wins coming on November 1 (they're 0-17-1 since).
By contrast, the 2010-11 Caps had a .406 points percentage (5-8-3) and the 2009-10 Caps were an even .500 (8-8-7).
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That’s certainly the other aspect of this – not only are they not overcoming these bad defensive games at nearly the rate they have in the past, but they’re ending up in more of them.
Would you (well, not you, but the general “you”) have guessed that this team will likely end up allowing four goals in a game more often than the run-and-gun 2009-10 team?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
coming into the season? No. After a few weeks of seeing shaky defense from the team, and shaky goaltending? Maybe.
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This team is playing not to lose instead of trying to win. That’s bad news…
by OvechkinGR8 on Feb 23, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Why not go back to Run and Gun??? At least that way we get a side order of entertainment with our 16 oz platter of frustration and futility.
I’m all for run and gun…………except that I’m not the least bit convinced that this team can successfully do that.
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I’m not sure they can successfully do what they’re doing now…
Once you take the fisting element out, it's not romantic anymore.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Feb 23, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure they can successfully do anything except lose and cause us all to jump ship. There’s soemthing terribly wrong with this team.
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In the beginning of the season I was hoping that the something that was terribly wrong with the team was BB. Turns out the reality is much, much worse.
Once you take the fisting element out, it's not romantic anymore.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Feb 23, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure we can yet clone Backstrom and grow him in a turbo incubator within the next 2 weeks, but we should still try.
by Brainumbc on Feb 23, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's Rich
The team that has been beaten as if a rented mule, the run-and-gun, 2009-10 team gets a comeuppance at last. That team that is only a step-child to great Cap teams of yesteryear allowed fewer goal than this defensively corrected team. Many thanks for that statistic, I would never have guessed it.
the Caps teams of yesteryear that were also boring as hell to watch? Who also amounted, largely, to a big heap of nothing in the playoffs, except for the year that their goalie carried them all the Finals?
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And isn’t the yesteryear caps what GMGM bought (or hoped to get anyway) when he hired Hunter?
by kingbonehead on Feb 23, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea what he was thinking when he hired Hunter. I’d like to think it’s less about yesteryear nostalgia and far more that he thought that this team needed a stern disciplinarian for a coach.
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I’m afraid it may have been both. Otherwise why Hunter w/no experience and not a veteran hard ass coach?
by kingbonehead on Feb 23, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
because GMGM doesn’t like to hire veteran coaches? Maybe he thought he could hit the jackpot twice. I don’t think anyone, even GMGM, expected Bruce to be as successful as he was.
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siiiiiiiiiiiiiigh.
and must you constantly remind me that 09-10 was just awesome? not-to-be-repeated awesome.
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New noon number...6
The number of Capitals that should be sold off at this trade deadline.
by CapsFanSince1979 on Feb 23, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions
I am quite sure I am not the only one mystified/stymied/bewildered by the fact that NOTHING (buy OR sell) has happened yet….
if you want to discuss trades, or lack thereof, I suggest taking it to clips or starting a fanshot or fan post. Conversation in the Noon Number is supposed to pertain only to the Noon Number,
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by RedBirdie on Feb 23, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Question
I have been wondering a lot about this really.
In the post above, the teams the statistics state the 09-10 Caps were an even .500 (8-8-7).
To prefice my question, i am realtively new hockey fan. Die hard for the past 3 years and am still trying to learn the intricacies of the sport. How is 8-8-7 a .500 record? They lost 15 of 23 games. That would equate to a .35 winning percentage…..
Just trying to understand, not criticizing at all. Love the blog, check it multiple times everyday. Keep up the Wonderful work JP!
In hockey, .500 generally refers to points% instead of win%, because points determine the standings.
Once you take the fisting element out, it's not romantic anymore.
by Steckel Me Elmo on Feb 23, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Thank You!
Explains a lot. Converted NFL fan trying to catch up…
Thanks again!
Exactly right (and I specifically referenced points percentage in the post – I can’t stand when people conflate points and win percentage).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
points for using “conflate.” Not standings points, points points.
If you've read this far...seek help.
To an extent, I think .500 is kind of a liars statistic given the point structure in the NHL. To illustrate this point, I’ve developed a far too complicated example:
The Harristown Hypotheticals play in a 5 team league, playing 24 games using the NHL points system. The HHs go 0-0-24 (24 points) in those games, under that logic, the Hypos would be a .500 team. Of course, if the other 4 teams all split their games against each other in regulation, so the other 4 teams end up 15-9-0, and finish with 30 standings points. The Hypos finish dead last in their league, but they played .500 hockey!
The problem with using .500 as a benchmark, is that while they took half of the points available to the Hypos, they didn’t take half the points available the teams playing in their games. We see this in the NHL almost every year. The median team in standings points in each conference is the last to make the playoffs, but the 9 and 10 (and sometimes 11 and 12) seeds have records above .500.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Feb 23, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Mean standings points earned per game in the NHL this season = 2.23
If you've read this far...seek help.
Thus, if you want to snag 50% of the points earned in your games, you need to be playing ~.558 hockey. .558 hockey puts you half a point shy of 92 points, which just happens to be widely used as the estimated minimum number of points to get to game 83…
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Feb 23, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Caption for the great Sasha pic above
“…What did Sergei say about Columbus – ‘It is the Siberia of the NHL!’ ?’
It is amazing how things can change so fast. Team draftts Ovechkin…then Backstrom… they already had Semin. They have a coach who can instill a bit of discipline, but isn’t the guy to get them to the promised land — he’s too buttoned-down in philosophy, but he was right guy to nurse them through early years. Then, they get a guy who is matched in philosophy to coach the talent. They steamroll everything in sight.
Then, they lose a playoff series.
They lose eight in a row before Christmas the next season.
Gotta change…we do defense now.
That doesn’t work either.
Next season, star and coach don’t look to be on same page…guess who goes. Bring in coach who might be as buttoned down as the first coach. In two years, team goes from the new “it” thing to being one that looks like mismatched parts without any evident consistent approach to the game.
From Ford Model T to Ferrari to Ford Model T in five years.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Feb 23, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
To me, it feels like the Caps have stood still, if that, while a lot of the competition has improved and passed them by. Injuries certainly have had a large part in keeping the Caps in neutral, but as the season draws to a close it’s looking more and like the players are just spinning their wheels. If it’s frustrating to Caps fans, imagine how the players feel.
"I’d still like to see us show some fight and get on the board a few times here." - Davethecapsfan
The really sad thing about this is the fact that supposedly the Caps are playing under a philosophy/system that is more defensively oriented to try and limit opponents quality scoring chances and odd man rushes. Well, quality scoring chances and odd man rushes are being limited, for sure, just not the opponent’s.
I don't want to work, I want to hang on the blog all day.
I don’t think the long-term outloook is as gloomy as recent results might indicate. That’s why I’m a big advocate of selling off all spare parts ASAP. Let’s look at it this way:
- Backstrom comes back
- Caps use Semin’s $ to find a replacement top-six wing
- Kuznetzov joins
- New coach with NHL experience instills a workable system
- Team finds a way to improve down the middle
- Young D corps continues to develop
Suddenly they’re right back in it, as soon as next season.
Caps use Semin’s $ to find a replacement top-six wing
You mean, part of it for a top-six wing, part for raises to RFAs, and part to save or to throw at a UFA D/C?
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Feb 23, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
The good news is the RFA raises are going to be extremely kind to the Caps.
Green will get the same on a 1-year.
Carlson will get about what Alzner got.
Perrault probably takes the QO.
Semin, Wideman and Knuble are almost $13M freed up. Get rid of Hamr and that’s another $3.5M. Then all you need is a GM who can figure it out.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
I fear that at least 3 of those won’t happen — No certainty that Kuznetzov is coming over; prob won’t be a new coach; and we’ve been hoping for improvement down the middle since the lockout.
by kingbonehead on Feb 23, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
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