The Noon Number
by J.P. on Feb 2, 2012 12:01 PM EST
in The Noon Number
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Print.017 - The difference between the Caps' goalies' home and road save percentages, having stopped 91.7% of the shots they've faced at Verizon Center, but just 90.0% on the road. The difference in Goals Against Average is similarly stark - 2.38 vs. 3.15 - and the result, not surprisingly, is an excellent record at home (18-6-1) and a brutal one on the road (8-14-3).
Here's how the two netminders' splits look:
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As a point of reference, it looks like League-average road SV% is .908 and home SV% is .913 (both numbers there include ENGs, though).
Like we’ve been saying for a while now, if the Caps could be an average road team, they’d be fine.
They’re not.
And they’re not.
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So why are the SV% that different on the road v. at home? If ESSV% is the goalie’s control then the difference would be either special teams, variance/luck, or there is something else going on in terms of shot quality or line matching, etc.
Please, call me F&B.
There’s about an 8% PP differential favoring home teams, for one thing. But it’s a good question.
Getting favorable match-ups definitely would play into it, I’d think.
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But that implies that favorable match ups drive more than just shot totals. If shot totals just increased with matchups, wouldn’t the GAA increase but the SV% stay the same? To drive down the SV% don’t you either need the goalies to play worse on the road or the skaters to convert at a higher rate?
Please, call me F&B.
I think you’re being Socratic here, and I’ll play along – I think favorable match-ups absolutely drive more than just shot totals, I think they drive scoring chance totals, which, in turn, drive shooting percentage.
It’s common sense, isn’t it? At home, you can get your top scoring line out against other-than the opponents’ top defensive players. Theoretically, that should increase your top line’s scoring chances, and since S% on scoring chances > S% on non-scoring chances, S% goes up. Similarly, at home, you get your best defensive players out against opponents’ top scorers and the reverse happens.
That assumes that it’s not a zero-sum game, of course (i.e. the increase SCs for your top line isn’t offset by fewer SCs for your 2nd line, which now has to face the top D unit, perhaps), but it makes sense conceptually, I think.
I haven’t seen much (if anything) on home/road QualComp splits, but I’d imagine that’d be pretty informative.
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Vokoun has allowed more than three goals nine times this season. Six of them have come on the road. He has had 13 decisions in which his SV was below .900; seven of them were on the road. He just doesn’t seem to travel well.
If you've read this far...seek help.
And it ain’t just him, of course.
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In fairness, apparently sometimes “it’s difficult to get up” in certain road cities.
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by J.P. on Feb 2, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I’m going to start a new website: http://www.wasthejapersrinknoonnumberpositivetoday.com
I think you can envision the content.
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Feb 2, 2012 12:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Ha.
And today’s is positive – look how good their home SV% is!
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Your first comment gives away how you really feel, however.
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Feb 2, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I’d like to know what the difference between goals-for at home and away is. I think that may be a more telling sign of why the Caps are doing relatively well at home and not so well on the road.
I need 100% of you guys to give 110% 100% of the time.
Home goals per game: 3.08
Road goals per game: 2.52
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Sophmore slump as well?
I need 100% of you guys to give 110% 100% of the time.
by capsfan4life on Feb 2, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW, here is the shot splits for Home/Away
home SF/gm SA/gm
2011-12 A 26.1 28.7
2011-12 H 23.7 26.4
BB 2011-12 A 27.8 28.9
BB 2011-12 H 27.4 24.2
DH 2011-12 A 24.4 28.5
DH 2011-12 H 20.5 28.2
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Here are chances:
home ChancesFor/gm ChancesAg/Gm
2011-12 A 14.3 18.3
2011-12 H 16.2 16.2
BB 2011-12 A 15.4 17.2
BB 2011-12 H 17.7 15.1
DH 2011-12 A 13.4 19.3
DH 2011-12 H 15.0 17.1
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
So at both home and on the road, the chance differential under Hunter has gotten worse by ~4 chances per game. That’s brutal.
What do you peg “average” scoring chance scoring percentage at?
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What do you peg "average" scoring chance scoring percentage at?
One step ahead of you my friend.
These are percentages of dangerous shots, which is chances/(goals+saved+missed)
max(‘2011-12’) home %DangerousF %DangerousA
2011-12 A 35.1% 41.9%
2011-12 H 42.7% 38.2%
BB 2011-12 A 35.9% 40.7%
BB 2011-12 H 39.6% 38.7%
DH 2011-12 A 34.6% 41.6%
DH 2011-12 H 46.1% 37.1%
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Hm. So only big difference there would seem to be that a higher percentage of their home shot attempts (minus blocks) are dangerous, yeah?
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More of a percentage of their shots against while away are dangerous.
So two chances per game at 16% avg conversion is ~1/3 a goal per game, or 10GA over 30 games.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yeah, that sucks.
And I considered 40.7% vs. 41.6% a wash… but duly noted. For context, averaging 28.5 SOGA per game under Hunter, the increase from 40.7% to 41.6% is an increase from 11.6 to 11.85, or one more every 4 games or so.
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General “scoring chances” question – when you refer to “scoring chance SV%,” do you mean actual Sv/SOGA on scoring chances or is it (1 – scoring chance conversion rate)? In other words, dude has a breakaway, shoots it wide – scoring chance, no SOG, no Sv. Is the G’s “scoring chance SV%” on that 1.000 or 0?
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Any thoughts on the discussion above re: why there’s a decent gap between home and road SV%, League-wide?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
My knee jerk reaction is scorer bias overcounting shots.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
So a systematic general bias to overcount road team shots on goal and undercount home team SOGs? I could believe that being a contributor, but I think we’re still a ways away from explaining the entire gap.
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And, further, if that is what explains it then what does that imply regarding the common practice of throwing out home games to try to eliminate scorekeeper bias?
Please, call me F&B.
Point taken, though isn’t that typically referring to the RTSS stats (hits, giveaways, etc.) and not so much SOGs, since the implicit assumption is that SOGs are less subjective?
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I’ve seen it for the SOG as well. With the NSH example below wouldn’t that indicate that SOG aren’t exactly objective, even if they are less subjective than the most ridiculous giveaway/takeway stats?
Please, call me F&B.
Absolutely. I don’t think anyone believes there isn’t some subjectivity involved in counting SOGs.
And I’ve heard stories about agents pestering official scorers regarding their clients’ stats – would it shock you if a team did similarly? (“Hey, this goalie’s coming up on free agency… let’s keep his shots-against on the low side, ok?”)
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FWIW, from Broudeur is a Fraud this past Jan, Goalie Performance on the Road:
Tomas Vokoun is another interesting case. His save numbers have been very good, especially post-lockout, but he has a Kiprusoffian home/road split of .923/.910. Vokoun’s road numbers in Nashville were actually below average, which makes it seem even more clear that there is something going on in Nashville. Vokoun’s numbers are better in Florida, although some remain skeptical about his performance there as well.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Doesn’t that imply bias of the NSH scorekeeper more than a two-way bias of every scorekeeper?
Please, call me F&B.
Yeah, and I’d seen that before regarding them (and FLA).
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Right, but that is a bias that impacts shot totals for both teams. The Sv% reflecting bias on H/A counting implies that it’s a systemic bias across all (or almost all) arenas that home teams have their shots undercounted relative to the visitors. You would also think that if there was a one-way bias it’d be in favor of overcounting the home team shots, no?
Please, call me F&B.
Maybe. Depends on the situation. Maybe the Rangers want to overcount opposing SOGs so Lundqvist can win a Vezina. Maybe the team with the UFA-to-be goalie wants to keep them down so his SV% isn’t as gaudy.
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Fair. But to create a meaningful spread you’d need more teams doing that? And you’d need the bias to go the same way. A bunch of rogue scorekeepers would likely trend it even because for every team that wants to boost their goalie’s numbers you have teams that want to suppress the goalie’s numbers or boost the SOG total, absent some other factor.
Please, call me F&B.
"scoring chance SV%" = 1- GA/scoringChancesAgainst.
In other words, dude has a breakaway, shoots it wide – scoring chance, no SOG, no Sv. Is the G’s "scoring chance SV%" on that 1.000 or 0?
1.000
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I should say goals that were also scoring chances.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
So, strictly by your definition, a goal scored doesn’t automatically make the play a scoring chance? (i.e., Samuelsson #1 last night?)
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
So, strictly by your definition, a goal scored doesn’t automatically make the play a scoring chance? (i.e., Samuelsson #1 last night?)
Correct. I use it just to get the scoring margin so I can run tied/lead/trail data.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Right. That’s what I figured, but wanted to be clear (since it’s slightly divergent from the common usage of “save percentage”).
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“Scoring Chance Not Converted Percentage” is a little wordy.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
Fail Percentage? I guess Vinny could talk about that one after the OT snare.
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Feb 2, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
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