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The Noon Number

PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 22:  Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals celebrates his third period goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the game at Consol Energy Center on January 22, 2012 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  The Penguins defeated the Capitals 4-3 in overtime.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

17.4 - Percentage of Capitals' goals under Dale Hunter which have been scored by Alex Ovechkin, a higher percentage of the team's scoring than the captain has had to carry since 2008-09 (when he scored 56 of the team's 272 goals, or 20.6%).

Under Bruce Boudreau earlier in the season, Ovechkin scored just 11.6% of the Caps' goals, after 15.7% in 2009-10 and 14.3% in 2010-11 (in his first four seasons, Ovechkin notched 21.9%, 19.6%, 26.9% and 20.6% of the team's tallies).

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I don’t know if that really says anything about Ovi’s response to Dale, or just how poor the rest of the team has been doing at scoring goals.

by Brainumbc on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, to me it says a ton about the lack of secondary scoring when Ovi can be down but still carrying that big a load offensively. (It is worth noting, however, that since mid-December, Ovi’s in the top-10 in goals scored.)

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by J.P. on Feb 17, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Another indicator…Ovechkin is on a pace for 31 assists. His previous career low is 46.

Ovechkin is on a pace to score 15 PP goals. Not a career high, but would be his highest since 2008-2009 (19).

Now, is it him not able to pull his teammates along, or their not being good enough/lucky enough to keep up?

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes me miss Nicky even more. You gotta believe that more of the chances Ovechkin creates would be finished with NB19 on his line instead of 85/90/21.

Warning: I started watching hockey in 2007. So, yeah.

by Laich Button on Feb 17, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Much like the playoffs…he can’t do it all himself. Been noted a few times but his goal scoring has had boost of late (feels very off an on, but the numbers are decent).

Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.

by Davethecapsfan on Feb 17, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

26.9% of the team goals. Holy schniekies. Guess that’s what 65 goals does for ya.

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by RedBirdie on Feb 17, 2012 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

Favorable stat to Ovechkin and damning of the rest of the team, no?

by kovachs on Feb 17, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions  

Let me put it this way – since December 23rd, Ovechkin is 7th in the NHL in goals. Meanwhile, there are 135 players in the League who have more scored more goals than Brooks Laich, Jason Chimera and Joel Ward (combined cap hit north of $9m) have combined.

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by J.P. on Feb 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea, but he’s fat and lazy and should be stripped of his C

by Obi wan Knuble on Feb 17, 2012 1:43 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

He’s a winger, not a C!

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah but...

With no Backstrom & Green contributing what I have to think is a pretty good chunk of offense, wouldn’t Ovechkin’s % be lower and the teams higher if we assume Backstrom is good for 1 goal every 2 games and Green good 1 goal for every 4 games? I’d run the analysis myself, however, this will have to wait until after work hours. Just a thought.

by migz on Feb 17, 2012 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Backstrom has never been a goal every other game player (41 goals) more like a goal every 3.5 games.

by sailchef1 on Feb 17, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

He had 33 goals one season. Pretty close. I think he’s got the potential to hit 40

by Brainumbc on Feb 17, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

That was the ‘09-’10 year where everyone and their brother was scoring. I’d doubt (assuming he comes back to full health and stays that way with his linemate) he’d reach it.

"Haven’t we all been there, kidnapping someone in a rented ambulance, only to get out onto the interstate and then realize that your intended rape victim has escaped and cheated on her boyfriend with his best friend. Man, if I had a nickel…"

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by Bald Pollack on Feb 17, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Hold on a minute

Did you say ’ ‘09-’10 year where everyone and their brother was scoring’ is that so far removed from ‘11-’12. Two years long ago but not truly distant. Rather than doing the numbers repeatedly can we not revisit that template that fostered a year that had ‘everyone and their brother scoring’. Certainly life round here would be less acrimonious don’t you agree? I mean if you have a template use it.

by Bobby Baby on Feb 17, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

A lot can change in a couple years. Rosters change, opposing teams adjust, luck runs out. ‘09-’10 is a season where you can say “well let’s just repeat that” and get the same results. The Caps scored 46 more goals than any other team in the league – that’s not likely to happen again.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Feb 17, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

If we’re only using it in the context to account for Backstrom’s highest year, it’s incredibly distant from any other year. Not counting this year, in his other 3 years aside from the 33 in 09-10, his next highest year is 22…the ONLY other time he’s topped 20 goals. I think pointing out it was a very abnormal year (and noting he was still 7 shy of 40) is fair game.

Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.

by Davethecapsfan on Feb 17, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Wasn’t the ideal year to have to extend Backstrom. That contract isn’t killing the Caps but one has to wonder what the deal would be if it wasn’t based on an outlying stat year but rather on him being a 20G and 80-90 point guy.

It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.

-Peerless 5.6.2011

by macvechkin on Feb 17, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

His numbers over his 38 GP this year extended over 82 GP would be 28/63/91. Even comparing it to his 33/68/101 year, I am fine with that contract for our 1C with those numbers.

Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.

by Davethecapsfan on Feb 17, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I have no problem with that contract for an 80-90 pt 1C who is also very strong defensively. He’s an elite C in the NHL, so $6.7 mil isn’t a bad cap hit at all for what he brings to the table.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Feb 17, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

No. They stopped scoring before the switch. Going back to it, even remotely feasible, just isn’t going to get AO 65 again.

"Haven’t we all been there, kidnapping someone in a rented ambulance, only to get out onto the interstate and then realize that your intended rape victim has escaped and cheated on her boyfriend with his best friend. Man, if I had a nickel…"

"My favorite fan base in D.C. is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

Help Keep United in DC so they can receive a fair deal on a lease and help develop a path to build a stadium with local investment and incentives.

by Bald Pollack on Feb 17, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

The catch with the 09-10 template is that run and gun scores goals in regular season, but is not a winning template come playoff time. I have NHL center ice and I often flip over to Ducks games to see what ol BB is up to. He is not winning via run n gun, he’s winning with a balanced, traditional style that the Caps have yet to master.

Now I have watched since Dec as the Caps try to learn how to cycle the puck, dump n chase and play a deeper defense, and it is actually slowly coming about. They were horrible at cycling in Dec; no they can actually do it with some regularity.

But- from watching other teams and seeing what Dale Hunter is (reportedly) trying to so, the Caps are regularly failing to do a few things. They are still not hitting like they have grit. They don’t clear the crease with aggression. The transition is often weak, in that they are more likely to dump it to neutral than anything else.

I don’t think Dale Hunter is trying to build anything less than a Boston-level type of gritty, balanced game. But let’s face it – GM has made no trades whatsoever. This crop of players was largely trained for run and gun. They are not all transitioning well. Even BB could not get them to do it even tho it is now proven he also wants to run a more balanced game.

GM needs to bring in players that support Hunter’s plans. There is no way the Caps can meld to a new style without some changes. To leave a half-build run and gun team in place while the coach is building a balanced system is to leave the coach out to dry.

Fan of: Dale Fuckin' Hunter

by sickleandhammer on Feb 17, 2012 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree that run and gun can’t win in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Chicago also play up tempo attacks, but they’ve won. Trading chances likely won’t work, since b by definition you should only win half your games, but that’s not the same as run and gun

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by red army line on Feb 17, 2012 9:16 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Era adjusted, the 09-10 Caps were one of the ten best goal scoring teams ever. It would be hard to get close again, even if they didn’t change a thing.

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by red army line on Feb 17, 2012 9:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

He could be a reliable 20-25 goal scorer (he is averaging 22.7/82 games over his career), with his power play production accounting for variation.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone else here think Backstrom could hit 40?

by Brainumbc on Feb 17, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don’t see him hitting that mark. High 20’s, occasionally 30 in good years I can see. Topping out at 33 the year our O went nuclear doesn’t make me think he can go higher than that gain.

Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.

by Davethecapsfan on Feb 17, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Nope. 28/52/80, year after year after year, is what this Backstrom fanboi had in mind.
Also, Fuck Rene Bourque with a chainsaw-wielding porcupine.

....when the truth is if they knew anything about the game, they'd be in it.
--GMGM

by redlineblue on Feb 17, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe if Ovi gets injured for a significant period of time, and he is forced to shoot first a lot more. But I don’t think he’ll get more than 80pts and 40 goals. He’s just not that kind of player.

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by Bman21212 on Feb 17, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

So, the record is underwhelming at the same time the star scorer and goalie have been hot. Yech.

The decision to swap speed and skill for size and toughness – which I admittedly applauded along the way – in hindsight appears to have had some downside.

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by fat_daddyo on Feb 17, 2012 12:25 PM EST reply actions  

how much speed did we swap? Flash, maybe. Fehr, Steckel, Gordon not so speedy.

by kingbonehead on Feb 17, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I, Matty P., disagree with this point.

by TexasLex on Feb 17, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Chances of Caps making the playoffs?

Probability of Backstrom returning by season’s end?

Number of empty seats at “soldout” Caps home games in March?

Percent alcohol in Cheerless’ home brew?

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Percent alcohol in Cheerless’ home brew?

I saw a dogfishhead at pizza paradiso this week that was 18%

/end OT :)

by Brainumbc on Feb 17, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

What OT…we might be wanting some of that, oh, around 11:00.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s 5 o’clock somewhere.

I need 100% of you guys to give 110% 100% of the time.

by capsfan4life on Feb 17, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree with the comments that this does not reflect well on others on the team who should be contributing, but any of this also due to the extra ice time #8’s getting with the new coaching staff?

by sk84fun_dc on Feb 17, 2012 1:06 PM EST reply actions  

Insofar as I can tell, Ovi got 18.78 minutes per game (4.10 on the PP) under Bruce and has gotten 20.41 (4.13) under Dale. That’s an increase of ~8.5% in TOI under Hunter.

So more ice time is a contributor here, but not a huge one.

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by J.P. on Feb 17, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Since Dec. 7 Ovechkin’s scoring rate projects out to 44 goals over 82 games.

by sailchef1 on Feb 17, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

40 is the new 50.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Feb 17, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

56 of the team’s 272 goals

oh for those days…

It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.

-Peerless 5.6.2011

by macvechkin on Feb 17, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

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