Carlzner a weak shut down pair?

by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 11:05 AM EST

Last night I was looking at which defensemen in the league play the toughest minutes and then of that group, who handles it the best. I have done this a few times this year and tend to get names like Chara, Weber, Lidstrom and Burns.

Of the top 30 Dmen in Corsi Rel QoC (who have played at least 30 games), a few are noticeable for having high OZone% numbers like Lidstrom/White and Keith/Seabrook. This means they are playing tough players but getting favorable starts when they do it. It waters down their case a little. But, most of this group have OZone% numbers in the low to mid 40s as you would expect.

Looking at possession numbers, the highest Corsi Rel in this group is Shea Weber at 12.9. Not shocking. Rounding the top 5 is a few more surprising names; Fedor Tyutin, Nikita Nikitin, Kimmo Timonen, and Ryan Suter. Some other big names in this group w/ solidly positive Corsi Rel numbers were Dion Phaneuf, PK Subban and Drew Doughty.

Then I looked at the bottom of the group in Corsi Rel and the loser was Rostislav Klesla of Phoenix at -12.4. Unfortunately, my eyes then quickly went to a familiar name, Karl Alzner at -8.4, 28th out of 30 and very close by, his twin John Carlson at -3.9 25th out of 30.

So, I think what we’re looking at here is the DMen who play the toughest minutes in the league. The team with the worst performance from this group is Phoenix with Klesla at -12.4 and Schlemko at -7. The second worst is Washington w/ Carlzner.

It appears that the pairing we are using to play against the toughest competition is doing that job worse than anyone in the league except Phoenix. I have been a huge Carlzner fan (and hope to remain so) but these numbers are very upsetting. I can't see a team whose top pairing gives up so many more shots than they take going deep in the playoffs. I guess add it to the list of things to be unhappy about these days.

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I think Green coming back will let Hunter pair all his defensemen with proper partners, and stabilize minutes accordingly.

by OvechkinGR8 on Feb 14, 2012 11:54 AM EST reply actions

But that won’t break up the Carlzner pairing…

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by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions

Green and whoever he’s with would take some of the tougher minutes though, wouldn’t you think?

by RossingtonCollins on Feb 14, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Green hasn’t traditionally played tough minutes, so I tend to doubt it.

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by Rob Parker on Feb 14, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Green theoretically would let Hunter relax a little more about matching the D pairs, but since Green would take away any offensive ice time Carlzner gets and Hunter already trusts Wideman for whatever reason, I don’t think Green’s return would have any significant impact on how Hunter goes around matching D.

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by red army line on Feb 14, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

The defensive scheme switch has not been kind to 27-74.

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by winterion on Feb 14, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions

They’ve had a tough year, in general. But, yes, Carlson in particular has seen his numbers plummet since the change.

They are still good and promising. How many teams have 22-23 year old D on their shutdown pair? Not many. If they aren’t the best in the league this year it’s not the end of the world. I still think both are going to be top pair NHL guys for a long time.

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by Rob Parker on Feb 14, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I’m with you. I don’t have the slightest inclination to move either of them off the pairing, let alone the roster.

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by winterion on Feb 14, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

I think there is reason to hope they will be good too. However, I’m not saying they aren’t the best in the league, I’m saying they are the 2nd to worst in the league. That is a lot to overcome.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes it rains.

by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 2:38 PM EST reply actions

They were great in that role last season. So I think there’s many factors going on with their regression, especially with the systems change. I’m taking the long view, beyond this season that is, with Carlznerson.

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by capsyoungguns on Feb 14, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

True, last year they ranked 8th and 12th in this same group. I feel like that, in and of itself, is another topic to research. Next post…

Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes it rains.

by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

I’m saying they are the 2nd to worst in the league

Don’t you need to look at 60 D, then, instead of 30?

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by red army line on Feb 14, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

You’re right, thanks. they are the 2nd to worst in my group. I should look at 60, that would be good.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes it rains.

by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

You’re right, I should have said 2nd to worst in my group. They are 47th and 52nd if you expand to 60. But, then you start getting some teams with 3-4 DMen like CBJ for example. Brewer and Kubina are pretty bad for TB at -8 each but Hedman plays tougher minutes.

It’s all back of the envelope stuff but it looks like they are among the worst shut down pair in the league, by this measure.

I mentioned the names but notice that Columbus has two guys in the 6 of this. Are their other D awful or is Mason that bad of a goalie? Or both?

Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, sometimes it rains.

by Avar on Feb 14, 2012 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

They don’t trust their bottom pair at all, it would seem.

You also need to remember that the pair (Alzner especially) doesn’t get good zone starts. Going by scoring chances, the Caps I’m pretty sure are under 50% at a team, yet Alzner and Carlson are both only 1-2 good games away from breaking even. Hunter still likes Wideman, so that hurts Carlson’s aggregate numbers because he’s getting force-fed prime ice time when the team is trailing (and the team sucks when trailing, anyway).

There is also an element of good team/bad team affecting the Corsi Rels here. Even though Shea Weber leads in Corsi Rel, his actual Corsi is still negative since Nashville this year is a below average team in possession.

I see them as break-even, basically. Flipping quickly through the teams, I’d say Buffalo, Colorado, Minnesota (matchup mismanagement in my opinion…how can you give hard minutes to Scandella over Schultz?), Tampa, and Phoenix have worse shutdown pairs, and I’m sure if I took a closer look I’d add more teams to that list.

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by red army line on Feb 14, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions