Capital Ups and Downs: Week 19
by Becca H on Feb 13, 2012 10:30 AM EST
in Capitals Ups and Downs
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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:
| Goalies | Trend | Notes |
| Michal Neuvirth |  |
Unexpectedly got the nod Sunday in New York and picked up right where he left off in recent starts - mixing some sparkling saves with some goals he really needed to have. Against the team sitting atop the East at the moment, the Caps needed their goalie to step up and make the big saves, and he couldn't. |
| Tomas Vokoun |  |
Vokoun started the week on fire, turning aside 40+ shots against division rival Florida Monday night for his second shutout in three games and then looking to be well on his way to his third in four... until the Winnipeg Jets struck with less than three minutes left in regulation. And then scored the tying goal on a fluky deflection from center ice. Hard to really fault Vokoun on much there, particularly the second one, but it certainly put a damper on what had been an otherwise impressive week. |
| Defensemen | ||
| Karl Alzner |  |
Had an overall solid week on the blueline despite being on the ice for four goals-against, blocking seven shots and finishing all three games with a plus- or even-rating. That he had the misfortune to be holding the stick that deflected the tying goal past Vokoun against Winnipeg is a fact that will haunt all of us. |
| John Carlson | |
Being reunited with Alzner seems to have settled him down a little bit, as he had a not-completely-horrible week for himself. Which, this season, is about as good as it's gotten. He even threw in a bit of offense - a goal and two assists - to the fact that he was only on the ice for two goals-against (and only one for which he could be held partly responsible). |
| John Erskine | |
Got a game jersey for the final game of the week, skated less than ten minutes, didn't do much of anything (but also wasn't a liability, so there's that). |
| Mike Green |  |
Continues to heal and is reportedly "on schedule"... which has a much nicer ring to it than "no timetable". |
| Roman Hamrlik | |
Was decent if not particularly noticeable against Florida, slightly more noticeable when he took a penalty in the dying minutes against the Jets, and awful (aside from picking up his seventh assist of the season) against the Rangers. After being one of the steadier defensemen for the past couple of months he's taken a bit of a dip in recent games - but its (hopefully) nothing the veteran blueliner can't correct. Soon, yes? |
| Dmitry Orlov | |
After such a great start to his rookie campaign, its sometimes easy to forget that Orlov is just that - a rookie. Nothing like a performance like yesterday's against New York to serve as a stark reminder, as #81 looked out of sync and downright lost at times and was on the ice for two of the Rangers' three goals. The sooner that cage comes off, the better. |
| Tom Poti | |
Remember when Poti put up four points against his former team in the playoffs at Madison Square Garden, and saluted the booing crowd afterward? Ah, memories... |
| Jeff Schultz | |
Was a plus-one with *gasp* a couple of hits in his two games this week and was quiet and inconspicuous, which is how you can tell he's had a good game... but was right back in the press box on Sunday in favor for Erskine. Hopefully the demotion was simply a way to keep the defense fresh in the first of back-to-backs... |
| Dennis Wideman | |
Picked up three assists, all on the power play, and wasn't on the ice for any of the five goals-against on the week. Worth noting: Wideman saw his second- and third-lowest ice times of the season against Winnipeg and Florida respectively... and then skated an astounding 28+ minutes against the Rangers. |
| Forwards | ||
| Keith Aucoin |
|
Continues to get minimal ice time (including just about a minute on the power play) and hasn't done much with it... although he has had a couple of golden scoring opportunities that, on someone else's stick, might have found the back of the net. |
| Nicklas Backstrom | |
Still out, still no timetable, still only discouraging reports about his condition... but he did travel with the team to New York for the team's annual father trip, so that's something. Not much, but something. |
| Jay Beagle | |
After missing his fifth straight game as a healthy scratch, Beagle finally got a sweater for two of the three games this week and proceeded to do... well, not a whole lot aside from being on the ice at the same time as Carlson scored on Sunday to pick up a plus-one. |
| Troy Brouwer | |
No points and just one shot on goal on the week - and had the strange misfortune to take the draw that led to Byfuglien's fluky game-tying tally - but was also on for almost half of the goals scored on the week and chipped in his usual 4-5 hits a night. Still, if he's going to be a top line guy, we need more. |
| Jason Chimera | |
Seems to have found some nice chemistry alongside Semin and Perreault, and as a result got back to providing a bit of offense for his team. He picked up a gift of a shorthanded goal - the second shortie on the year for both him and the team in general - against the Panthers and added a beauty of an assist on Semin's goal at MSG; he also led the team in shots on goal in two of the three games, racking up 16 over the course of the week. |
| Jeff Halpern | |
Extended his goalless drought to 26 games and was on for two goals-against without being on for any scored by his teammates, and continued to take a bit of a hit in the dot (although he was back up above 50% for the week... if only slightly). |
| Matt Hendricks | |
Made a great play shorthanded to set up what essentially was a tap-in on an open net for Chimera against Florida and saw his career-best ice time continue to climb with over twenty minutes against the Jets. Wasn't that noticeable against the Rangers, though, which is exactly the kind of team - and the kind of game - in which you want a guy like Hendricks to get some attention. |
| Marcus Johansson | |
Picked up an assist on the power play against the Panthers and won 62% of his draws against the Jets... but continues to simply look out of place on the top line. He's still young and still evolving, but every game in which he's unable to maintain possession and set up Ovechkin is a game in which we're reminded that he's not quite at the level of his injured countryman. |
| Mike Knuble | |
Skated ten minutes against Florida and then spent the rest of his week watching from the pressbox, as Knuble found himself a healthy scratch for the first time in almost two years. Interestingly enough, the Caps lost both games in which he was scratched - coincidence? ...yeah, probably. Still, regardless of whether he's lost a step or not it's hard not to wonder how he's not at least a better option than Beagle. |
| Brooks Laich | |
Amazingly did not miss a single game after suffering an injury that looked scarily bad against Boston, suiting up just two nights later for a big divisional matchup against the Cats and perhaps even providing a bit of inspiration for his teammates. Having said that... he's clearly not 100% and is being used minimally at best. That he's continuing to dress is probably a sign that this team doesn't have the luxury of resting injured players unless absolutely necessary. |
| Alex Ovechkin | |
Was dominant against the Panthers, picking up his first multi-goal game in almost a month, then followed it up by scoring on a nice sharp-angle shot on the power play - and making an even prettier pass to set up Semin's power play tally - against the Jets. That doesn't excuse the fact that his performance against the Rangers was lackluster at best, but a five-point week (and a shootout goal) is nothing to sneeze at. |
| Mathieu Perreault | |
Got the Caps on the board early Tuesday night, picking up his ninth goal of the season (and the eventual game-winner) just thirteen seconds in and making sure Verizon Center was jumping right from the start - but did less with more ice time the rest of the week. |
| Alexander Semin | |
Had a point in each of the three games, including two goals, and was easily the team's best player through forty minutes against the Rangers - even going so far as to shock the world (or at least the NBC broadcast team) by making a diving defensive play to prevent a scoring chance. The fact that he got a little cutesy at the end of the New York game aside, he had the kind of week we had hoped to see when Ovechkin was out serving his suspension (including being on for five goals-for and none against)... when it comes to 28, though, we'll take it when we can get it. |
| Joel Ward | |
Had what was easily his best game in months, if not the entire season, against Florida despite not showing up on the scoresheet, and followed it up with another solid outing (and a bump in TOI to boot) against the Jets. He was on - and partly responsible - for New York's opening tally on Sunday, and saw his ice time dip back down below ten minutes, but overall a good week for a guy who hasn't had many of late. |
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This team’s chances hinge on Vokoun keeping that arrow green, and that might not even be enough.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 10:41 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Pretty much. Here’s a fun stat for you:
They haven’t won a single game under Hunter with a SV% below .903. Not one. 12 losses. Under Boudreau (this year) they won four (lost nine).
In fact, under Hunter, they’re 11-0-0 when their SV% > .943, 5-14-3 at .943 or below.
In other words, the team isn’t picking up its netminders – if they’re not very good, they’re not winning.
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That’s pretty brutal, in so many ways.
.943 is all time great. Better than Pekka Rinne. So if that’s what the team needs to have a better than 25% chance to win… that’s not a good sign.
And on the other hand .903 is pretty mediocre goaltending, and yet BB found a way to get the team to win ~1/3 of those games. If BB got the kind of goaltending Hunter has gotten he’s still coaching the Caps. If Hunter got the kind of goaltending BB got… damn.
Please, call me F&B.
.903 is even worse than mediocre. It’s flat-out bad. League-average SV% is around ~.911, I believe.
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So based on that, when Hunter’s guys get above-average goaltending, 14-3-1; when they get below-average goaltending, 2-11-2.
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So it’s not totally lost if we get the goaltending we anticipated in training camp?
Please, call me F&B.
I suppose – get average goaltending and things still look fine?
The last 16 times they’ve gotten “average” (i.e. > .911) goaltending, they’ve won 14 times and lost once in regulation.
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Let me check my .911… not sure it’s right.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I wouldn’t say they still look fine. The inability to create/sustain offense has to be troubling, even with good goaltending.
Please, call me F&B.
Sure, but “when they get average goaltending, they win” seems a lot less daunting than “when their goalie’s not perfect, they lose,” no?
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Vokoun’s 16-5-1 when his SV% is above .910, with all five of those regulation losses coming before January.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
OT, but why’d have have to get sick before yesterday’s game…why?!!! WHY??!!!!
"He leaves every ounce of energy that he has on the ice and works very hard at it, and he wants to be the best and he wants to win, If you don’t follow that, you’ve got something wrong with you."
by nogoodtrying on Feb 13, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
As Neil would point out, in those 16 games, they averaged 2.9 goals-for per outing. If they got their average 2.4 per game, they’d need .920 goaltending over 30 SOG/gm for that kind of run. So average (.911) is only good enough if the offense shows up (duh), but when it doesn’t, goaltending still needs to be exceptional.
Point still being that they’re not good enough to overcome subpar goaltending right now.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
What a revealing stat; thanks, guys. This pretty much sums up a lot about coaching. Let me ask a question, though. Do you think that these numbers also reveal anything about team ‘spirit’ or ‘hustle.’ Or, is the only possible inference about the team (as opposed to the coach) is that the ‘talent’ just isn’t there to produce that extra winning effort?
by Wilderthing on Feb 13, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
I’m waiting for the day it’s just all red arrows. Nice show of restraint, Becca.
"He leaves every ounce of energy that he has on the ice and works very hard at it, and he wants to be the best and he wants to win, If you don’t follow that, you’ve got something wrong with you."
That’s why they don’t let me do the U&D…
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 7 recs
I have to disagree with the comment about Semin in the Rangers game. I stopped counting after he misfired five short-range passes in the first period. I also stopped counting the number of times when he “cut” the wrong way through neutral, causing a pass that was coming toward him to skitter to a Ranger. His goal was a thing of beauty and he did break up the two-on-one, but he also badly misplayed another Rangers rush (when he took the man above the circles and abandoned the man in the low slot).
Maybe that’s enough to get an up arrow for a guy making $7m.
What’s the point. . . .
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 13, 2012 11:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
If we’re giving out down arrows for everyone who couldn’t complete a pass against the Rangers, the whole damn post would be red. He was one of the best players on the ice in that game regardless, and had a good week overall.
As I mentioned via email to the other Rink writers, I do wonder what the reaction on some of these ratings would be had the Florida game happened yesterday and the NY game happened Tuesday…obviously a question with no answer but there’s little doubt in my mind that losing leaves a sour taste in a lot of peoples’ mouths when we do these.
The definition of being a Caps fan is watching the same team over and over and expecting different results.
I thought Semin had kind of a bad game against the Jets but made it look nicer with a strong finish (the PPG).
The coaches gave him 7th rank TOI for that game. However, while I expected the team to be focusing on playing better hockey first, we find them in “a win is a win” territory again. So all sarcasm aside maybe that contribution to getting a point for the team was worth it in the end.
I also thought he had a notably good game vs the Rangers
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
Hunter continues to drive this team in to the ground at a hundred miles an hour. His personnel decisions border or a child with a lego set. So pathetic.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:14 AM EST reply actions
What an astute observation backed by the greatest in evidence!
"He leaves every ounce of energy that he has on the ice and works very hard at it, and he wants to be the best and he wants to win, If you don’t follow that, you’ve got something wrong with you."
by nogoodtrying on Feb 13, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I think benching Mike Knuble and using a one-dimensional coaching system suited for Major Junior hockey is enough evidence for me, thanks.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Why? I think we have all agreed that Hunter’s coaching style hurts the team. How can he justify benching Knuble? Because his plus-minus is bad?
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
Follow me on Twitter - @HarryHawkings
by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
And because his Corsi is bad. And because his Corsi Rel is bad. And because his penalties taken per 60 is bad. And because his penalties drawn per 60 is bad. And because his actual production is bad.
How about the reason not to bench Knuble? What metric makes him look superior to the other options? FanFavorite/60 doesn’t count and neither do his 20 goal seasons from years prior.
Please, call me F&B.
I think he’s a far better player than Aucoin and Beagle. And I know I’m not the only one. Yes, he’s been struggling, and I don’t excuse that – but he’s also a veteran leader on the team. I don’t think you scratch that for three games so that Keith Aucoin can play in the NHL.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
Follow me on Twitter - @HarryHawkings
by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
And yet if you take a look at Beagle’s numbers they are better than Knubles. Aucoin is only in the NHL because of injuries so I don’t think you’ll get much of a fight there. He also brings a different skill set (and a theoretical ability to play C) than Knuble.
How far does veteran leadership get you when you consider it’s a team that’s not even in the playoffs? That sounds like “Jordan Staal is carrying the Pens all the way to a first round playoff exit.” But worse.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you’re going to piss and moan about a ~40-year-old player with three goals on the season getting benched, you’re missing the forest for the trees and might as well be the guy who blames all of their defensive woes on Jeff Schultz.
I think we have all agreed that Hunter’s coaching style hurts the team.The results haven’t been encouraging yet, and if you were hoping for a quick fix, clearly Hunter was a terrible choice in your eyes. But I personally don’t think we’ve seen enough to say, “Dale Hunter can/can’t coach at the NHL level” yet.
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by J.P. on Feb 13, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
but what we’ve seen so far causes a little anxiety.
by kingbonehead on Feb 13, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Are you sure this is the same system he used in Junior?
Are you sure he’s not learning on the job and getting better at it, perhaps introducing new aspects to the team that he sees in other teams, perhaps the Bruins?
Please, call me F&B.
Mr. Parker, didn’t you and I agree literally four days ago that he is in fact using a one-dimensional system?
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
Follow me on Twitter - @HarryHawkings
by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
What I’m disagreeing with is the assertion that it’s only suited for the CHL (and I question whether it’s even the same system he used there) and the assumption that he can’t or won’t adjust the system as he gains experience and grows in his job.
Please, call me F&B.
Bingo.
“He’s not Boudreau/Hitchcock!”
No shit. Those guys have recent, applicable NHL head-coaching experience. To expect Hunter to be able to do what they’ve done is absurd, even with an arguably superior roster (and that’s an argument someone else can have).
I do think that that is a reasonable basis for disagreeing with the Hunter hire, but not so much with the results of it.
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"He’s not Boudreau/Hitchcock!"
I’d also toss Bylsma’s name into there too as a possible cause for the expectations being what they might be.
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 13, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Sure. Boucher, too (though Boucher had an off-season to work with). Both of those guys were AHL coaches, so there was less of a transition than from the CHL.
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Boucher and Bylsma also had superstars to work with.
Hunter has not had that luxury.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
by fat_daddyo on Feb 13, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Yeah, let’s see what he can do with more time with Nick and Green in the lineup.
Please, call me F&B.
Kinda hard to believe, isn’t it? But here we are.
On the Rags’ second goal yesterday I was watching AO cruise around the D zone…I think he was waiting for someone else to cause a turnover so he could pounce on a loose puck.
If he’s going to score ~30 goals and play D like that, he doesn’t even rate “very good but not quite elite” status.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Apropos of nothing, with a little effort he could’ve knocked McDonagh into Newark on that play.
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That would have been another justified suspension though, based on angle and timing.
Please, call me F&B.
But here we are.
Um, here YOU are.
Some of us still consider Ovechkin a “superstar”, to use your word
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Superstar of what? Collecting paychecks? He’s been better under Hunter, but the only reason we are talking about this crap is the lack of production from the top 3 on this team. Ovie WAS a superstar. I believe he can be again… but he is not right now. Nowhere close.
I’m honestly afraid that the only way he’s going to last through his deal is if he learns to take faceoffs and becomes our 2C.
Saying Dale Hunter doesn’t have any superstars to work with is questionable at best, fatalistic and reactionary at worst.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
All of Hunter’s superstars are AWOL at best. Gone at worst. Semin’s production relative to Ovie is on track. Ovie is the barometer for this team. I sure hope you are right, and Ovie is just sandbagging cause he’s tired of winning all the awards himself. Otherwise, we’re in for a long decade to come.
Otherwise, we’re in for a long decade to come.
jesus you guys sound like me talking about the Redskins, a team that unlike the Caps, is actually poorly managed and has no long term talent to build around.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
This team is tied to a 30G 40A winger who plays less-than mediocre defense, to the tune of almost $10m/year for . . . eternity.
A 30G 40A winger who plays less-than mediocre defense ought to be pulling down $5.5-6.5 on that term of contract (based on what guys like Perry, Carter, etc. are making).
The Caps are going to go into every season with ~$4m of “wasted” cap space. That’s a pretty big hole to dig out of, especially when that space is “wasted” on the least-valuable position in hockey.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 13, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I see our difference now:
you are sure Ovie is a 70 point player from here on out.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I think 80-85 is likely the ceiling of what we can expect of him going forward, barring some type of rules change in the league.
He’s on pace for slightly less than 70 point this year, and he’s actually shooting at a higher percentage than he has over his career.
Unleash the Apathy.
but there are a lot of factors going into his problems this year, IMO.
I think 80-85, with a few near-MVP level seasons thrown in there.
That is worth his contract to me. That is worth keeping him (and 19) and focusing my efforts elsewhere.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
11.9% this year and for his career unless I’m reading the numbers wrong?
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Um, here YOU are.
Paraphrasing Hoosiers, I think we should vote again.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
Winning trophies on your home field? DC United's done that. Twice. Help Keep United in DC so they can receive a fair deal on a lease and help develop a path to build a stadium with local investment and incentives.
by Bald Pollack on Feb 13, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I’m ashamed. But if it pleases and sparkles I say we don’t open up old votes. At least not until Dave Steckel MVC9 is re-opened.
Please, call me F&B.
Based on nothing in particular (other than gut instinct) I’d expect similar weirdness this year, though maybe not as severe.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
Winning trophies on your home field? DC United's done that. Twice. Help Keep United in DC so they can receive a fair deal on a lease and help develop a path to build a stadium with local investment and incentives.
by Bald Pollack on Feb 13, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
10? 20?
Whatever the number is, Ovechkin is one.
Perhaps this year he’s not, but the implication that Hunter doesn’t have elite/superstar/yoursemanticshere players to work with is a joke.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I also think there was a healthy heap of snark on there.
Regardless of whether he’s a “superstar,” he’s not carrying a line like he used to. If he needs Nick to make a dangerous line, then he’s not worth eleventy billion dollars.
Please, call me F&B.
For a comments section that prides itself on its advanced metrics, it’s easy to get lost in this snarky talk of “superstars”
Personally I think AO is still someone you build a franchise around. Clearly other people around here are ready to throw him out.
Good luck with that.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I think it’s folly to build a franchise around a winger. Any winger. Ever. It’s akin to building an NFL franchise around a wide receiver. It’s folly.
Unleash the Apathy.
Well, the next time we’re able to draft a Malkin or Crosby, we can take your advice to heart.
According to you, what should the Caps have done?
Not drafted Ovie?
Not resigned him?
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Sign him to a shorter term deal. Not keep Semin around all this time. Use that money to make sure you lock up the 1 and 2 C spots before you commit 15 million dollars to the wings.
Please, call me F&B.
Semin has nothing to do with whether drafting Ovie and giving him a big deal were good ideas.
Don’t conflate them.
Whether you could’ve even gotten Ovie to sign short term is a huge unknown. And how much more expensive that would have made him.
I’d rather have the best center in the league than the best winger, but here we are, with a guy who spent a few years being the best winger in the league, and has had two down years.
Now what? Dump him?
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Over the long term, a team built around Malkin likely has a greater chance of repeatable success than a team built around Ovechkin.
Unleash the Apathy.
I think that’s very short sighted.
In fact I’d label the shortsightedness “2011-2012”
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
You’ve been around long enough to know that this isn’t something I suddenly started to believe just this year. I’m sure you can use the search bar if you don’t believe me.
I’m on record over and over and over again saying that, all things being equal, I’d rather have an 8.5/10 center than a 9.5/10 winger. Every day of the week.
Unleash the Apathy.
In team building, I don’t think you can separate things like that.
I’d have drafted AO, and then built down the middle. It’s the 1-2 punch of AO-AS that really throws the cap structure out of whack.
As GMGM told it, they had a shorter deal with AO negotiated, and then tacked on all those 10 million per years since they knew they’d want him until he was 45 anyway.
Please, call me F&B.
Really? He added those 10 million years? Fuckin A!
Super long term contracts for rugged players seems like a bad decision almost always.
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
yep. They had the first 6 years, at ( mil worked out, and decided “Hell let’s do the extension! You want to be a a Cap for life, we want you to be a Cap for life.”
at least, that was the story being peddled at the time of the signing.
Pledge Drive 2011-2012: CARSON KOLZIG FOUNDATION! Season Pledge total--$1328.52!
Bingo.
I’ve been beating this drum forever. The team is built incorrectly. Teams that have lasting success are built around centers and defensemen. Dot. Period. Over. Goalies matter too, but I’m coming around to the belief that all but a tiny handful are too volatile to plan around (see Miller, Ryan; see also Fantasy Team, mine).
The best team in this league over the last two decades has been the Red Wings. It’s no coincidence that their “core” throughout that time has consisted of centers (Yzerman, Fedorov, Datsyuk and Zetterberg) and defensemen (Fetisov, Lidstrom, Rafalski). They’ve always seen their wingers as replaceable parts.
Unleash the Apathy.
So I ask:
you would have
A) not drafted Ovechkin
B) not resigned him.
?
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Before this season…would you say that? I guess if a guy has a couple great seasons that bring a Conn Smythe along with a Cup it’s okay if he semi vanishes every other year?
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I would. Centers are always more valuable than a winger of equal talent (unless you’re already loaded with centers).
Unleash the Apathy.
Fair enough
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Look at Alex Semin this year. All the talk before the season was about how he “drives possession” and “drives play.” Then he got paired up with Marcus Johansson and looks. . . much worse.
At the same time, Chimera looked like garbage last year, but once he stopped playing with Johansson, he looked pretty good.
Which one of these players actually “drives possession.”
(Hint, it’s not the wings.)
Unleash the Apathy.
Not necessarily. It’s just clear that MoJo is freaking terrible in terms of puck possession at this point in his career. He gets out-muscled along the boards, his outlet passes are poor, he’s not great at maintaining possession in the zone and. . . as a result his on-ice Corsi (and that of his teammates) suffers. Badly.
Unleash the Apathy.
Right, but to what do we owe Chimera’s turn around? Playing with anyone-but-Mojo?
Please, call me F&B.
Yep. I think Laich helps, but if you look at Chimera’s possession stats, they’re better than Laich’s. I think Laich/Halpern have helped though. It just really goes to show how completely overmatched MJ90 is.
Unleash the Apathy.
But what does Malkin do better than AO other than have a C next to his name? He sucks on faceoffs and he sucks defensively. So what is it about his play that makes him so much more valuable than a W?
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 13, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. I’m crazy. Because I’d take the guy with a Conn Smythe and a Cup who’s currently leading the league in scoring and appears to be getting better as he ages.
Ovechkin was fun to watch for a few years, but that show is over. The game has tightened up again and he’s lost a step or two.
Unleash the Apathy.
Too early for me to claim Malkin is getting better with age. He’s like a longer term version of Alex Semin. His streaks just happen to last whole seasons. If he can keep this up, I reserve the right to change my mind.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Except that Malkin plays center. It’s a fundamentally much more important position. In a game where puck possession means so much, the players who can acquire the puck, transition it, carry it, pass it, and shoot it, are very, very, very valuable.
Semin is a great passer and a great shooter, and he can carry the puck in transition, but he’s not great at acquiring the puck, and he’s not great at protecting it in high-traffic areas. Malkin does all those things and does them at plus-plus levels.
Unleash the Apathy.
Right I was more just commenting on his tendency to play great for periods of time and vanish for periods of time as well. That’s the only reason I was comparing him to Semin. I can buy the argument that when he IS playing well it’s far more important to his team than when Semin is playing well though.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s funny that a tough fantasy season is what got you to come around on the volatility of goalies.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t know, maybe they should have drafted Malkin, though the Pens likely would have two or three Cups by now were that the case.
Ovechkin on Sid’s wing…scary thought.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
there’s a locker room personality experiment I’d be semi-interested in watching
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Eh, trying to argue over “superstars” is bound to cause problems, that’s why I asked how many you think are in the league. Rule 1 is define your terms, right?
So if “superstar” means top 30-60 player in the league, sure. Top 5? No. But ultimately it’s not a meaningful label.
Whether or not to keep/build around AO has more to do with his contract than how you label him. And that’s my problem. He’s not even close to living up to that cap hit, which makes him a net-negative. That’s a problem.
Please, call me F&B.
The original comment was this:
Boucher and Bylsma also had superstars to work with.
Hunter has not had that luxury.
The implication being that those rosters have elite talent that the Caps roster does not.
I find that questionable at best.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
It was snark, for the most part.
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it’s hard to tell with some commenters around here.
the team has 2 down seasons and some people are ready to throw Alex Ovechkin overboard.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Well, when a ship runs aground twice in a row, I think it’s more than fair to look at the captain. Or the firstmate.
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Oh some folks are doing far more than “looking”.
People are rescinding his paycheck and leaving him in the last port of call.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I don’t think it’s unfair to wonder if the Caps could receive amnesty for his contract this coming summer, if it’d be a smart move.
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if I were troubleshooting this roster, dumping Ovechkin would be way down the list of ideas to try.
Centers like Stamkos and Malkin aren’t out there waiting to be picked up.
Wingers 3/4ths as good as Ovie aren’t waiting to be had.
I am shocked at how quickly people can question having Ovechkin on the team.
I find it almost mind-boggling.
Suppose I’m just being naive.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
You can’t just look at him separate from his cap hit. That’s the disconnect, I think.
Please, call me F&B.
The disconnect is whether you think the Ovie of the last 2 years is all you’re ever going to get.
Or if he’s capable of more, like he was earlier.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Two years ain’t nothin’. What do you see that makes you think a return to the huge years is even a remote possibility? Shot generation is way down. PP opportunities League-wide are in the toilet. His center is a hit or two away from… who knows? His coach can’t generate possession.
Why the optimism?
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His coach can’t generate possession.
Well, there’s the rub.
I’m focusing on Ovechkin’s potential in a vacuum.
If he’s stuck playing for the 2010-11 version of Bruce Boudreau, or if Dale Hunter proves to suck as a coach, then no, I don’t have optimism.
But if I was considering dumping him, I’d sure as heck try another coach or two before I did it.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Keep cycling through coaches – we’ll wait!
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I don’t feel comfortable judging Ovechkin’s ceiling based on teams coached by Bruce Boudreau and the current version of Dale Hunter (future progress notwithstanding).
I’d give Ovie at least one more coach, preferably a veteran one.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Well, you’re likely in luck, seeing as he ain’t goin’ anywhere any time soon… and we can’t say the same for DH32.
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Centers like Stamkos and Malkin aren’t out there waiting to be picked up.
So you’re admitting that they’re more valuable?
Unleash the Apathy.
No, I’m applying your logic that you’d dump Ovie so you could get one of these mythical centers to build around.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
There are two points here, and they’re not necessarily in lockstep – “dump[ing]” Ovi and getting an elite center (even though the Caps already have one of those). It’s conceivable that the Caps could be better off (on-ice) dumping Ovechkin and spending that money wisely, but not necessarily on an elite center, is it not?
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It’s conceivable that the Caps could be better off (on-ice) dumping Ovechkin and spending that money wisely, but not necessarily on an elite center, is it not?
Fully conceivable.
Do I personally think it is likely? No.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Well, if it’s fully conceivable, I don’t get the shock and indignation at the notion of considering it.
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I strongly disagree with the idea and think it’s short-sighted.
Not sure what else to say.
Indignant I am not.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
It’s not shortsighted. What’s shortsighted is to look at the last five years then assume that Ovechkin is somehow only going to repeat the good times going forward over the next five years.
Goal-scoring wingers whose goal scoring relies overmuch on explosive physicality don’t tend to age very well.
Unleash the Apathy.
I think there are 2 other viewpoints on it if I’ve been reading right. D’oh would have drafted Malkin, Rob would still have drafted AO but instead of throwing a lot of money into ANOTHER wing (Semin) for a 2 wings, 1 center core (AO, Sasha, Nicky)…he’d go out looking for another good center instead (AO, Nicky, 2C).
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I’m in Rob’s camp, fwiw. Ovi was and is the right pick. But if you go in on Ovi, you can’t structure your top-two effin’ lines around wings.
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I’m in Rob’s camp, fwiw. Ovi was and is the right pick. But if you go in on Ovi, you can’t structure your top-two effin’ lines around wings.
Completely agree.
That’s why I’d like to pay my way to the top of the Anti-Semin bandwagon.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Your stated top reason for being given a seat at head head of the (crowded) anti-Semin bandwagon today is that the Caps should have drafted someone else with that pick 11 years ago?
(Steve Eminger was their first pick that year)
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
what? no.
Draft logic is different than re-signing (or trade) logic.
I would not have resigned Semin at almost $7M, and I would have traded him for any decent offer over the past 2 years.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Oh, between then and now you would have liked for them to have traded him when there was potentially more chance of a deal than now($) and more unexplored upside for teams to salivate over. Ok
I thought you meant because you think we shouldn’t build around wingers we should just dump them for whatever we can get.
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
Last 3 seasons before 2011 offseason:
Jeff Carter: 115g, 96a (age 26)
Alex Semin: 102g, 115 (age 27)
One of these players brought back a top prospect, a high 1st and a 3rd round pick, despite having “character concerns” and a seriously long-term contract.
The other probably wouldn’t bring back a used puck bag.
I wonder why.
Unleash the Apathy.
Several reasons, and you know it.
Position, nationality, reputation (one’s an enigma, the other won gold with team Canada years ago).
Please, call me F&B.
Well, cost/contract certainty is a part of it.
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They’re not mythical. They exist. The Caps have one. They need two. Look around at the teams that make the Conference Finals year after year after year after year.
Chicago (Toews, Sharp, *Kane)
Detroit (Datsyuk, Zetterberg)
San Jose (Thornton, Pavelski, Marleau, Couture)
Vancouver (Sedin, Kesler)
Boston (Krejci, Bergeron, Seguin)
Pittsburgh (Crosby, Malkin, Staal)
Philly (Richards and Carter. . . now Giroux and Briere)
Unleash the Apathy.
Wait, you’re saying you’d rather have all of those players than Ovechkin?
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
No.
Conveniently, none of them cost what Ovechkin does, either (though Malkin and Crosby come close).
Put another way, the Caps could have Brad Richards for what NYR is presently paying Brad Richards.
Unleash the Apathy.
Yes and no – term is real value in a deal, just like dollars. They could have Richards for what they’re paying Semin this year, but they couldn’t have offered Richards a one-year, $6.7m deal and landed him.
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Fair point. I’d like to see some of the other key positions on the “crew” step up come playoff time. There’s been plenty to not love about AO’s game in the playoffs, but would be nice to see someone step up and outscore him in a playoff series for once.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Return to Gilligan's Island
Remember ‘Rescue from Gilligan’s Island’?
Everyone’s all happy they’re finally out of that place they’ve been stuck forever, and then at the end of the movie they find themselves right back where they started from.
I’m pretty sure that movie didn’t win any major awards for all their trouble, but I hope it was fun making it. And I hope they broke even. Sometimes these labors of love projects can really suck you dry.
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
So if "superstar" means top 30-60 player in the league, sure. Top 5? No. But ultimately it’s not a meaningful label.
To me, you’re trying to define “elite,” not necessarily "superstar (which to me includes off-ice stuff). But it’s a pretty pointless argument, ultimately.
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I have many shits at my disposal, but cannot give even one for this discussion.
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by J.P. on Feb 13, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Who is the superstar? Green? Injured.
Backstrom? Close, but he’s also had a down year and is currently injured.
AO? Not even close. He’s a 30-goal guy. How is that a superstar?
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Don’t you think that in modern sports there’s more to “superstar” than simply on-ice performance? There’s aura and mystique, marketability, etc., all of which Ovi has in spades.
Maybe we should be arguing whether or not he’s still an elite performer, but I think he’s still a pretty big star in the eyes of the League (see, for example, FuckyouIamnotgoingtoOttawagate).
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For last 21 games (quarter of season roughly) AO has played on a 50/35/85 pace.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
… with his center out and playing alongside the blackhole of possession and faceoffs that is MJ90.
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I don’t think there could be another player with a greater delta between the enjoyment I get watching him play and the opposite-of-enjoyment I get when I look at his advanced stats.
Please, call me F&B.
Ha. I’ve become increasingly frustrated with his pass/shoot bias, but largely agree.
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sub topic:
MarJo is breaking my heart this year.
He had me so excited last season, and I thought he was as good an option as any other to potentially solve the 2C problem.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
He will be a better player.
Not ideal for him as much as anyone w/ Backstrom out. I’m sure the coaching staff tells him: “just give us your best every night, that’s all we ask and want out of any of our players”
He recently shot on that 2 on 1 with Ovie recently (and was stoned). That showed confidence, but lack of success – with That player waiting for the feed – could have tempered things in the short term
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
All of which makes me think the potential is still there. He just really needs to work on his game and be more of a force when he’s on the ice. I know he’s not a center, but there are far too many shifts where they just get pinned in our zone and he is invisible.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Feb 13, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I never said he couldn’t coach at the NHL level. I think he’ll be a great coach eventually, because he does know the game, but not for this team. He is a defensively-minded coach, and this is a club built for offense. It’s trying to force square pegs in to round holes.
As Rob said, he may be learning on the job, but that’s not what this team needs. JP I have even heard you say you don’t think Hunter was the right choice for this team.
To expect him to be BB or Hitchcock, that would obviously be unrealistic. But I think to expect some sort of improvement in either wins or peripheral stats such as scoring chances and shots is not unrealistic to expect. That hasn’t happened, and I think it is because he is forcing defense down the throats of offensively minded players.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
I think he’ll be a great coach eventually, because he does know the game, but not for this team.
I’m not sure what that means. What kind of team would he be a great coach for?
How is this team built for offense? Because they have two skilled wings?
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Yes, I would say that this team is built to score goals, not keep them out. I think that’s been pretty well documented. It’s where their star power is. Ovechkin is a sixth of their payroll, their captain, and the franchise player. He’s also a pure offensive force. That’s the identity that the team has chosen to go with. They have built a team to score around Ovechkin. Semin is also one of their marquee players, and he is an offensive player. Green, as much as he has been improving defensively, which I give him credit for, is a still more of an offensive defenseman than an all-around guy in my eyes.
When he gets better at coaching in the NHL, if he doesn’t go back to London, he would be a good coach for a team with a lot of speed and a deep roster that doesn’t necessarily include a lot of star power. A team like St. Louis, for example. Maybe Dallas. With this roster that the Capitals have, I think you have to focus on offense. It sends mixed signals in my book. Why have a roster geared to score goals if you’re going to have a coach who doesn’t try and make it easier to score goals?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
My only guess would be because the whole run ’n gun all offense thing has never worked. Even with rosters that were more offensively gifted than the current one.
There’s a difference between run and gun and playing all defense. It’s not one or the other.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I was using the term run ‘n gun because that is the consensus label for the team during BB’s tenure, and from what I could see, that is what you were talking about.
The thing is, the teams that have been winning the cup recently like the Boston’s and the Red Wings and the Chicago’s, were winning because they had great all around games. Not a single one of those teams could be branded purely offensive, in my eyes.
So what I said – they’re “offensive” because they have two skilled wings.
This isn’t 2009-10. Flash is gone. Fehr is gone. Etc. This is a team designed to be difficult to play against along the boards with a few skill guys to try to carry the load. This roster, with the exception of the issues down the middle, looks damn-near ideal for Dale Hunter, IMO. If Chimera, Ward, Brouwer, Laich, Hendricks and Knuble aren’t Hunter guys, I’m not sure who would be.
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Right. And if they’re good against the boards, there will be more openings in the middle, hopefully more presence in the crease, and thus more scoring chances. One thing I think has gotten better is their cycle. When it actually happens, that is.
"He leaves every ounce of energy that he has on the ice and works very hard at it, and he wants to be the best and he wants to win, If you don’t follow that, you’ve got something wrong with you."
by nogoodtrying on Feb 13, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Yes. But those 2 skilled wings are half of their main offensive talent (when everyone is healthy, right now it’s 100% of the main offensive talent) – how can you have an entire team buy into a coach’s philosophy and do what he thinks is best to win when your top players aren’t particularly good at it (with the notable exception of 19, when healthy)?
To make my point more clear, I’ll be more clear: it’s like if the Packers handed the ball off 50 times a game. Use your best asset to his full potential, especially when so much is devoted to him. But that’s just me.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think if Aaron Rodgers was playing like Joe Flacco then the Packers would have a reason to hand the ball off 50 times a game.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ah but therein lies the paradox. The Ravens have Ray Rice, the Packers have…James Starks.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
So I guess the Caps then just have Flacco and Starks.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Feb 13, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem with your analogy is that you think this team has Aaron Rodgers (Ovie), when they’ve really got Matt Hasselbeck.
Unleash the Apathy.
by D'ohboy on Feb 13, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
you don’t think that has anything to do with the fact that Ovechkin is playing in a system where he is forced to do something (play good defense) that he is not particularly good at? Obviously his goal totals were going to go down, but I feel it’s been greatly exacerbated by a defensive system. And I know I’m not alone on that one.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Ovi changed before the system ever did.
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I don’t think it can be blamed on the system. He started drying up after the Olympics, he wasn’t on a substantially different pace under either BB system.
Please, call me F&B.
so to Clarify – you two think that Ovechkin’s struggles have nothing to do with him being forced to play defense and a less offensive system?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe not “nothing” but it’s certainly not the main reason.
I don’t think I’m not in the NBA because I’m white. I think I’m not in the NBA because I’m 5’10" with middling athleticism on a good day.
Please, call me F&B.
I think it’s about 60-40 system. But okay.
In that case, we have a huge problem on our hands, gentlemen.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Yep.
AO is now a 30-goal guy (and perhaps that’s being generous) who plays wretched defense and has a $10M cap hit for the next decade.
It’s not good.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Can anyone remember a parallel example of an NHL goal scorer drying up this severely into his mid-20’s? It’s unthinkable.
26 or whatever. Same age as Ovechkin. And either way there’s no reason you should even be taking that example seriously. You know it wasn’t serious.
Oh, he’s a Winterhawk… that explains it.
Please, call me F&B.
Please take this more seriously.
His last good season was literally when he was in Vancouver.
Facing the Giants.
In the WHL.
As a 16 year old.
He never did anything noteworthy between then and Dumb and Dumber.
Please, call me F&B.
Cheechoo?
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 13, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Two guys are “half of their main offensive talent.”
Two is half of four.
They have four guys that constitute “their main offensive talent.”
Yet this is a team that’s built offense-first? Curious architecture, that.
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four players that constitute over a third of their salary cap space. This team is built to score goals.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Healthy Green and Backstrom are elite players who would be coveted by every team in the League, from the free-wheelingest free-wheelers to the trappingest trappers.
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I think it’s fair to say we’re built for offense. Two elite wingers, an elite center, arguably the best offensive-d-man in the game, an all-star offensive d-man, and plenty of guys capable of putting in 20+ a year (Laich, Broewer, Knuble).
by David C. Rothman on Feb 13, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree. 4 years ago we starting building for offense (and were successful), and then GMGM switched strategies last year with his Laich, Chimera, Ward, Knuble, Hamr ‘grit’ contracts. So, when the primary offensive stars either under-produced or got hurt this year, we were left with…well, neither great offense nor as the earlier stats reveal, not much team-wide winning production either.
by Wilderthing on Feb 13, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree on Carlson and Perreault, both deserve up-arrows. Carlson looks good out there, not just “not bad”, and he’s chipping in offense as well. Yay Carlzner reunion! And although Perreault didn’t register a point last game, he factored into each of Caps’ goals with a smart breakout pass on the 1st and beating 3 Rangers to get the puck the deep and start the forecheck on the 2nd. He continues to acclimate himself well with top-line minutes/quality wingers.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 13, 2012 11:58 AM EST reply actions
The editorial board had some disagreement on Perreault – he certainly could’ve gotten an up arrow here.
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Saying “I disagree” as opposed to me saying “you have an error in your arrow calculations” is more fun anyway.
by David C. Rothman on Feb 13, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Perrault finished the week pretty weakly against NYR, IMO
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
I thought he was one of the only players making tape to tape passes and showing confidence with the puck. He was also involved in both goals.
Please, call me F&B.
True, but I felt like I saw decent offensive possessions end with him losing the puck or not being in great position.
I did think he had some decent defensive positioning though.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Carlson Wideman
Why No Up Arrow?
those are good weeks.
Relative to expectations?
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by Bald Pollack on Feb 13, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Falling all over himself trying to pinch yesterday, leading to the shorty…that killed the green in my book.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
He had almost half the offensive zone to himself, going after that puck was the right decision.
Slipping on the ice was a mistake.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Kinda what I meant by falling all over himself.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
In reference to above, as I had to go to class and bumped out of comments -
Mr. Parker – Ovechkin was on pace for 104 points last year prior to Dec. 1, when we can assume BB changed to D-first. It had a big effect. As I said before, his natural decline obviously has something to do with it, but I think that the notion that the type of system he plays in isn’t a contributing factor to the type of numbers he puts up is inaccurate.
Because in my book, going from a 100 point pace to a 70 point one for a player of his caliber just because of a talent regression is not possible.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:36 PM EST reply actions
Ovechkin was on pace for 104 points last year prior to Dec. 1, when we can assume BB changed to D-first.
Why “assume” when BB changed systems when we know for certain that it was December 13?
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Do we? I was under the impression one of the main reasons that whole losing streak happened was because the players were struggling to adapt to the system.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Do we?
At that point, Ovechkin was on pace for a 30-goal 82-game season.
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Common misconception: The Caps’ stopped scoring because they switched to a more defensive system.
Reality: The Caps switched to a more defensive system because they stopped scoring.
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I just re-did the math, and on December 13 Ovechkin was on pace for 92 points. I’m fine with 30 goals if he gets that many points because it means he’s still creating goals.
They didn’t start playing defensive hockey after getting smoked 7-0?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
That’s exactly when they did – read the link.
And you’d really be fine with Ovechkin scoring only 30 goals? The assists were random – there was a wonderful narrative about how Ovi wasn’t scoring because he was passing more. It was largely bullshit, though, as everything since has demonstrated.
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No I read the link but I just meant I would assume that playing defensive hockey would have a lot more to do with the “7” of 7-0 rather than the “0.”
I think we all know that Ovechkin isn’t a great passer, but a lot of his assists, if memory serves, came off of shot rebounds, etc. So yeah, if he had 90 points, 30 of which were goals, I would be fine with it. Because it means, at least to me, that he is still generating shots on net and creating chances. It’s not ideal, but it’s something.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, I think Ovi is a great passer. But I don’t think he consciously stopped scoring goals to goose his assist totals.
Why would high assist totals signal that he’s generating shots at net when his SOG totals said otherwise?
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He’s definitely an underrated passer. Think about the Semin goal against WPG. I don’t think you can really say that the majority of his assists are off rebounds.
Please, call me F&B.
If he’s such a good passer, why is he 93rd in assists this year? I never said he was a bad passer; he’s a fine passer, just not a great one. Nor did I say he stopped scoring on purpose to boost his assist totals.
What I’m saying is I don’t think it’s a coincidence that both goals and assists have dropped off for him now that he’s not shooting as much.
I blog the Caps at Caps 'Round the Clock.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
If he’s such a good passer, why is he 93rd in assists this year?
If dolphins are so smart, why do they live in igloos?
Seriously, though, your question makes little sense. Ovi could be a virtuoso pianist and you could ask, “If he’s such a good pianist, why has he had so few shows at Carnegie Hall?” and it’d make as much sense.
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by J.P. on Feb 13, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t understand the analogy.
First we say that Ovechkin’s goal scoring is driven by shot volume. Most agree on that. If his assist totals aren’t impacted that much by shot totals too, why have they suddenly fallen way off by his standards, just like his shot totals?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
My point was that you cited his relatively low assist total as proof that he’s not “such a good passer.” I don’t think one has much of anything to do with the other.
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Wait, what? There are obviously other factors that contribute to assist totals, but wouldn’t passing ability be the prime reason that a player has a lot of assists? That they are “such a good passer?”
That’s where I’m confused. I feel like when people evaluate players, they say that a person is going to be a goal scorer because they have a good shot and go to the net, just as we say a person will be a good passer if they have good vision and passing skill.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
substitute “good passer” at the start there for “have a lot of assists.”
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
But with a waning PP and not-so-good puck possession those assist numbers are going to come down even if AO’s passing talent doesn’t change.
Please, call me F&B.
point taken.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think assist totals necessarily tell you how good a passer a player is.
Let’s take a hypothetical line on which you’re the center and I’m the right wing, which Jesus Christ himself – the greatest passer ever – as the left wing. Somehow, we play a whole season together and Jesus doesn’t get a single assist. Why? Because you and I suck at hockey. Does that in any way, shape or form impact Jesus’s passing skill?
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Well, yeah, but Crosby > Jesus.
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bahahahahaha
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
No. Mr. Christ is still the best in the land. But do Nicklas Backstrom (when healthy), Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer, Alexander Semin, all suck at hockey?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
In varying degrees.
Point being that the totals may reflect other things – shot/pass bias, crappy team puck possession, horrid finishers, etc. – that have nothing to do with actual passing ability.
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yeah, probably because he was shooting so much.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
probably probably probably…
The data’s available – find it and answer your own question.
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What I’m saying is I don’t think it’s a coincidence that both goals and assists have dropped off for him now that he’s not shooting as much.
There’s little doubt about that, but I bet you’d be surprised at how low the percentage of his assists that have come from rebounds of his shots is. Go research it, if you care to – see how many of his assists come on goals score within two seconds of one of his shots on goal.
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I’d even accept a quicker and dirtier analysis. How many of his assists went to Knuble, Laich, or another “net crasher.” Let’s just assume that every one of those is a rebound (which is obviously too generous an assumption). I still bet most of his assists went to non-net-crashers like Nick, Green, and Sasha.
Please, call me F&B.
Not sure that would get you anything of value.
Related: Ovechkin and the entire team needs to shoot low with the intention of creating rebounds far more than they do currently.
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No way, the top corner is way sexier.
Please, call me F&B.
by Rob Parker on Feb 13, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s even sexier if you can simultaneously clear the zone for the other team by putting it hard around the boards.
Unleash the Apathy.
Agreed, 100%
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
How about the pass to Halpern for the breakaway? Against FLA I think.
If Halpern scored that would have counted as an assist. As it stands, Ovechkin does not get credit for a great pass.
by Gin and Tonic on Feb 13, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I know a player who played for the Caps in 2001/02 who had 121 pts one year and 79 the next
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
Jagr?
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but given he went back up to 123 pts 5 yrs later
So while my pt is actually fairly pointLess (like Jagr was for the Caps) I’d say if he lost his talent or skill he found it again later.
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
I think we all know Jagr played like garbage here because he hated it here. I don’t think that’s the case with Alex.
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by hankthetank5503 on Feb 13, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Actually I think we should be careful saying any of us knows why he played like garbage…for what it’s worth, I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as “he hated it here”. Maybe he did but I think there was a lot going on, most if not all of which we don’t really know because we’re not him, but as I recall he had some personal stuff going on.
Not an excuse, obviously, just pointing out that none of us can speak to what did or didn’t motivate the guy.
The definition of being a Caps fan is watching the same team over and over and expecting different results.
I’m pretty sure he has come out and said that his heart wasn’t in it while he was here and he didn’t give full effort.
And even if he never admitted it, it’s pretty clear he didn’t give full effort. Doesn’t really matter to me whether it’s because he hated the team or the coach or the city or his wife.
Please, call me F&B.
Many including me thought it was from the pressure of being seen as The Savior of Washington
He may have hated it. But he convinced a lot of us including Ted that it was just an unhappy situation that it didn’t work out.
That was the dusty narrative for not trading Semin earlier on – that it would negatively affect Ovi’s play
I used to be a hockey player, but then I took an arrow in the knee
Nominate Doc Emerick for down arrow for the 3rd time this year failing to understand that Marcus is NOT GUSTAVSSON! I’m getting sick and tired of NBC’s crew, between their unprofessionalism and inability to call an accurate game. I’d prefer Madden/Summeral at the end to what they have now.
sorry for spelling errors.
by FFSEnough on Feb 13, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I’m just really bored of them. They’re ok at their jobs, but I don’t need to listen to them every time there is a national broadcast.
"By far the worst performers on the (R*dskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Emerick is making the same mistakes that cost Summeral his job. Not knowing the players on the ice. Not knowing the situations and calling a proper game. And he doesn’t have Senility to fall back on as an excuse. Complaining about McGuire and Millbury is wasting my breath, but the rest of the crew is turning my stomach just the same.
No down arrow for 22? two healthy scratches? I know you guys just want to put a down arrow next to DH for scratching him – but that ’s not really the point of the rating is it?
and playing his “best game for months and possibly the season” doesn’t get Ward a green arrow? what’s a man to do?
OK – too many questions in one post. Based on the fact that you can’t think 22 was going to be scratched twice, you must be answering my question on Ward.
So the expectation is that Ward plays a game like his FLA game 2+ times per week to get an up arrow? tough crowd over there!
Well I just think “best game in months” doesn’t say a lot because he’s been bad for so long. He was signed to play great defense and DRIVE PLAY but he hasn’t been. So he meets expectations for a week and we want to give him green arrows.
Please, call me F&B.
erm… actually yes – with a significant upward jump in the quality of his play this week based on the past months (therefore adjusting my expectations) I think he does deserve an up arrow. But i take your point.
I just don’t entirely agree.
Like I said somewhere else, it depends on re-calibration. I am slower to re-calibrate. I’m still judging by expectations from pre-season.
Please, call me F&B.
I’m looking for the light at the end of this tunnel – so I’m perhaps quick with the greens. I always think of this as more of a trend chart (this week versus the recent past) so there would be the difference in philosophy.
regardess of philosophy though – the Knuble one is a head-scratcher. should be red for not playing, surely.
Also, MP is really, really good at finding soft spots in the opponents’ D-zone coverage, which means that, if and when Chimera gains possession, MP is often already in a good scoring position.
Unleash the Apathy.
And MP was actually passing like an NHLer.
I don’t think he’s solidified his spot in the NHL with this little trial run, but I think he’s doing better than I expected him to.
Definitely agree on his ability to find soft spots in the zone. I also think he’s the only guy we have right now that can actually change the pace of the game when the puck is on his stick. When he wants to press, he presses. When he wants to pull up, he does it. And he holds the puck with confidence the entire time.
Of course, it’s the stuff on the other end of the ice when he doesn’t have the puck that he needs to prove. Everyone knows he has puck skill.
Please, call me F&B.
___
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by J.P. on Feb 13, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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