Is the 4-game win streak a sham?

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 4, 2012 3:03 PM EST

Caps are getting badly outshot in the last 40 minutes, and opposing goalie save percentages are far below the league's worst mark...

The Big Four are reunited, Ovie's scoring again and Vokoun has finally remembered how to play goalie, and yet there remains that one glaring inadequacy: defense. I went back to take a look at the shot totals from the last four games, and there are some interesting realities that are laid bare.

The Caps have done well in the shot department in the 1st period over those four games, outgunning their opponents to the tune of 36-27 over the first 20 minutes. However, the last 40 has been pretty damn ugly: Caps' opponents 87, Caps 55 (47-33 in 2nd, 40-22 in 3rd).

A look at the save percentages for the goalies involved is fairly unnerving: Vokoun has saved 109 of 114 shots for a .956 save%, a solid 11 points higher than the current NHL leader in that category, Tuukka Rask (.945). Meanwhile, opposing Caps goalies over the past four games (Mason, Miller, Kiprusoff, Biron) have stopped just 77 of 91 of the Caps' shots, which comes out to an .846 save%. Now granted, two of those guys are near the bottom of the league in save%, but the worst save% in the league is Roloson at .882. Surely, these kinds of figures aren't sustainable, even against bad goalies.

Having watched every bit of all four games, I wouldn't say the Caps are playing poorly, but the discussion on the Noon Number today is right on the mark: those cracks in the defense are there, and the team has been fortunate of late. The point is, Dale Hunter needs to figure out a way to reduce that shot discrepancy, and soon, or these kinds of win streaks are going to be few and far between.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I wouldn’t be too concerned if they are being outshot with a lead – score effects will distort the numbers some, esp in a small 4-game sample.

I haven’t added the game vs. CGY yet, but the first three of the win streak saw the team do just meh in chances at even-str with a tie score.

-2, +2, +1

Like you said, there are some cracks, but if the goaltending is there and the top stars are scoring you make hay while the sun shines.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

See my work in the Washington Post and on ESPN Insider.

Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg

by NGreenberg on Jan 4, 2012 7:23 PM EST reply actions

Well, that’s certainly encouraging. And yes, you certainly shouldn’t overvalue shots, but those save percentages seem way out of kilter and some regression to the mean seems inevitable. That’s what concerns me.

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 4, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

Ovi and Baxter playing great and competent goaltending. It’s amazing what that will accomplish.

It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.

-Peerless 5.6.2011

by macvechkin on Jan 4, 2012 8:49 PM EST reply actions

Except that the “big four” are not all reunited. Green came back but then Semin went out. (And now Nicky B could be out as well thanks to Rene Bourque.)

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Jan 5, 2012 7:25 AM EST reply actions

Backstrom appears to be OK and Semin will also make the road trip with the team. I say they’re all back on the ice by Saturday.

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 5, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

Behold the power of this fully armed and operational battle station!

by Joran on Jan 5, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

You may fire when ready...

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 5, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

.

"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH

by hotdog88gt on Jan 6, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

GMGM: It was I that leaked our power play plans. I’m afraid your friends will find the Russian Machine quite operational.

Other GMs: It’s a [1-2-2] trap!

You tried your best and failed miserably. The lesson is "Never Try."

by apk3000 on Jan 6, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Nice.

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 6, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

At least that is the word for today. Nicky will certainly be on the ice. At least Semin’s making the road trip but given the fact that he was practicing on the 4th line (as the 4th forward) has me a bit concerned about his status. But we’ll see how they all look tomorrow…

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Jan 5, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

Semin’s done overworked his HHT arm?

"And as it’s my personal opinion, I’d appreciate not being told it’s stupid, thanks." - BeccaH

by hotdog88gt on Jan 6, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

Semin was still practicing on the 4th line yesterday as well and was even bumped down there yesterday when Nicky (who was late to the ice after being “evaluated”) returned.

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Jan 7, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Good work, but for now I’m just going to be happy we’re riding a W4 again. It was starting to seem like those days were getting behind us.
Also, I’m not ready to concede these points after the money I just dropped on tix for Saturday night. 18 years is a really long time to go without a win somewhere.

by SFJerome on Jan 5, 2012 6:43 PM EST reply actions

I wish you good luck at the game. A generation is an awfully long time to wait between wins in a building.

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Jan 5, 2012 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

No kidding. A couple games ago was embarrassing. HP can be a tough place to play. I have the hope that instead of playing 3 games in 4 nights like usual, our guys are rested and the sharks are doing 3 in 4. Also, were the sharks even in HP in ’93? This might be history. Look for the Caps contingent behind the goal. I have a good feeling about this one.

by SFJerome on Jan 5, 2012 8:39 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

Good for you, man. Rock that red (or white).

Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...

by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 6, 2012 12:47 AM EST up reply actions

possibly...

but let’s score early and defend when we need to… That doesn’t mean don’t defend, but offense is what gets you points. Defense helps keeps your victories comfortable, at least when the game goes your way.

by thewiz06 on Jan 5, 2012 9:27 PM EST reply actions