The Caps and the Road Ahead

by J.P. on Jan 23, 2012 3:00 PM EST

PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 22: Washington Capitals head coach Dale Hunter directs his team against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the game at Consol Energy Center on January 22, 2012 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

Three games and three points on the road. This is an acceptable pace. Play 500 on the road and play well at home from here on out will help us dramatically in the standings. - Ted Leonsis

That the Washington Capitals have struggled mightily on the road in 2011-12 is by no means a revelation. But has it been so difficult for the Caps to win away from Verizon Center that banking half of the possible points on a three-game trip is "acceptable" for a team that just a season ago had a .598 points percentage on enemy ice?

In a word, absolutely.

At the moment, the Caps have a tenuous hold on the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 53 points with 35 games remaining in the season. The conventional wisdom is that it'll take 93 points or so to make the playoffs in the East, meaning that if the Caps play to a .500 points percentage over their 18 remaining road games, they'll need just 22 points in their 17 home games to hit that 93-point plateau (which should be attainable for a team that's gone 17-6-1 at home so far this season).

The reality, of course, is that a .500 points percentage on the road the rest of the way would be a huge improvement for the Caps, who are currently 8-13-2 on the road for a .391 points percentage. (And if they kept that pace up, they'd add another 14 or so points, which would obviously up what they'll need on home ice to make the post-season.)

Compounding the problem is the road schedule itself. To begin with, the competition is good. How good? If we total the home wins, losses and overtime/shootout losses for the Caps road opponents (double- and triple-counting the teams the Caps play twice and three times, respectively), those teams have a combined .638 home points percentage. (Eliminate the double- and triple-counting and that drops to .631). Further, the schedule includes back-to-backs (four front-ends, one back-end and two full back-to-backs on the road), a four-game trip that includes both Florida teams, and a brutal mid-March Islanders-to-Jets-to-Hawks-to-Red Wings-to-Flyers roadie that may very well make or break the team's playoff hopes.

If the Caps take half of the points available to them on the road over the remainder of the regular season, they'll certainly have helped themselves dramatically in the standings. And given what they've done away from home so far this season and the schedule ahead, it would be more than acceptable. It'd be great.

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Was hoping the March road trip would include St. Paddy’s Day to drink away the pain. It does.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jan 23, 2012 3:14 PM EST reply actions

“You see that? That’s my jersey. If you want your jersey to hang up there next to mine you’ll listen up.”

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Jan 23, 2012 3:14 PM EST reply actions 5 recs

I don’t think Wideman will have his jersey up there next to Hunter’s even if he does listen.

Once you take the fisting element out, it's not romantic anymore.

by Steckel Me Elmo on Jan 23, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

No, probably not.

Please, call me F&B.

by Rob Parker on Jan 23, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Judging by Knuble’s face, I think it’s more “this is exactly how much of my arm I can jam into your ass if you don’t hear me.”

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jan 23, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

“That banner there. ‘Eastern Conference Regular Season Champions.’ Is that all you want out for your legacy?”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 23, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs

I hate to be the guy to point out that they’re in Pittsburgh in that picture.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jan 23, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Heh. Oops. That’s what I get for following Rob’s lead.

How about “See that? It says ‘Stanley Cup Champions.’ As do those other two. Want one? Start playing like it.”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 23, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

“I’m glad none of you have silent letters at the end of your name like that guy. It’s fucking hard to pronounce. Okay, Per-ott, your line’s up.”

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jan 23, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Beautiful.

Dale, the...

by Penguin Hunter on Jan 23, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Or “To infinity… and beyond!”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 23, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

Is infinity the name of is favorite golf course?

Once you take the fisting element out, it's not romantic anymore.

by Steckel Me Elmo on Jan 23, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Stripclub.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jan 23, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

He may want to hold off on the “and beyond,” in that case.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jan 23, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

“Guys I’m telling you, 1 shot on goal per period will work.

Excelsior!!!"

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

Which DC sports team has the Most Valuable Players? That would be DC United, a team being pushed out by the city. Help Keep United in DC so they can receive a fair deal on a lease and help develop a path to build a stadium with local investment and incentives.

by Bald Pollack on Jan 23, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

Well done, sir.

Follow me on Twitter

by Kolzilla on Jan 23, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

We need us a real natural disaster ….

Be Utterly Facinating @ http://www.thirstdc.com

by TheFuryUnleashed on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM EST reply actions

For an 8th spot in the standings, this is a great analysis. If this team wants to help itself it’ll make winning against SE Div. teams a priority. Esp. the Panthers, who we play 4 more times. 4 losses for them and 4 wins for us just might cover up a poor finish to the season. For some reason, winning our division just seems like an easier task than aiming for a playoff spot in general. Beat SE teams, try not to lose every single other game… might just work.

by feeya7 on Jan 23, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, it tightens the focus too. One team to hunt means less scoreboard watching.

Cross check and all call.

by bigonetimer on Jan 23, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

For what it’s worth, of the 17 games left at home, 6 are against under .500 teams currently (MTL x 2, NYI, TB, BUF, CAR).

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

by Bald Pollack on Jan 23, 2012 4:00 PM EST reply actions

If the Caps take half of the points available to them on the road over the remainder of the regular season, they’ll certainly have helped themselves dramatically in the standings. And given what they’ve done away from home so far this season and the schedule ahead, it would be more than acceptable. It’d be great.

Going .500 on the road would be great. Also, I wouldn’t mind seeing more of the Caps’ losses come in OT. I’m not a fan of the “loser point” in general, but the fact is – if the Caps had as many OTL as FLA we’d be 6 pts ahead of them in the division. And we’d be tied for 3rd with OTT in overall pts in the conference (with 3 games in hand).

If the Caps start going .500 on the road – combined with the current .708 at home – the Caps should end up with 95 pts (+ a couple potential loser points that should get them over the 100 pt mark). Good enough for the playoffs, but not very convincing that they will be a contender.

If the Caps don’t improve on the road, the Caps can’t lose more than 4 games at home. The current road win percentage will get them 14 pts. Combined with the current record of 53 pts they need 26 pts at home to hit the threshold of 93 pts. With 17 home games left, they need to win 13 of them. And 8 of those are against current playoff teams (two of which are the Bruins, two against the Panthers and one each against the Flyers, Devils, Leafs, and the Sharks). That’s a tall order.

They get a little more breathing room if the play on the road improves to .500, which means they can lose 6 games at home. If the play at home drops off, forget it.

I was optimistic for much of the season, but when faced with these numbers and the reality of how they have played – my optimism is all but gone.

by Gin and Tonic on Jan 23, 2012 4:15 PM EST reply actions