The Noon Number
by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 12:02 PM EST
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4 - Number of times in 23 games since Dale Hunter took over behind the bench that the Caps have failed to register 20 shots on goal in a game, including each of the last two games. That's the same number of times (four) that they didn't reach 20 in 329 games under Bruce Boudreau (two of which came earlier this season).
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do not like. 20 shots should not be all that difficult to reach.
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I don’t think this team would have any trouble firing 30+ shots on goal if they wanted to. Many, many times during last night’s game, I saw them decline to take open shots from the point, or even down low sometimes. They looked more interested in creating situations and setting up the perfect shot. It’s not really translating to scoring chances so far, though…
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 19, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
There is a difference between looking for the perfect shot and trying to set up shots, which is what you’re touching on. Tho it may be difficult to tell the difference even for the players sometimes when decision-making. I think they are doing more of the latter now – for the most part. And I like it. But either way that SOG number needs to go up.
No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande
I don’t think this team would have any trouble firing 30+ shots on goal if they wanted to.
I’m not so sure about that. I mean, sure, if they just wanted to get shot totals up and were willing to fire ’em from the neutral zone every chance, yeah. But they talk about “simplifying the game” constantly, and one of the simplest things you can do is get pucks on net rather than over-passing. And yet…
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I’ll preface this by saying I’m infuriated by how often guys are making the extra pass rather than putting the puck on net low and hard, and looking for a rebound. That said, I’ve seen much less of the “Sasha clear” where Semin (or Ovi) tries to pick a corner from off-center, misses, rims the puck around the glass and into the neutral zone.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Jan 19, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
We’ve seen the shoot anything approach not work against MTL in the playoffs. I am sure that is what’s on their mind as they look for better chances.
"One of the most difficult things everyone has to learn is that for your entire life you must keep fighting and adjusting if you hope to survive." -George Allen
The “shoot anything approach” may not have worked, but it generated 90+ scoring chances over the final three games. This team right now would take at least 8 games to reach that many.
I don’t think Montreal is on their mind. I think when they start losing again—at this rate, it will be soon, probably this weekend, unfortunately—they’ll shoot more and forget about being pretty/perfect.
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by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
And I’m not convinced Motreal series was a “shoot anything” situation, with its implication that the shots were mostly poor quality. I may be misremembering, but I thought Neil or somebody had a shot-plot that showed a proportionally large amount of the shots in that series were from quality shooting areas.
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by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
It’s almost like we’re without half of the Big Four.
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 19, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions
The shot-generation is still well below that of even the most shot-challenged post-lockout teams. Getting two guys back would help, but they’d still be struggling in that metric.
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Yeah, I know. Just me being hopeful.
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 19, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
This is probably not easily, or even mediumy to find, but I wonder what the minimum average shot total is for a Cup winner in the playoffs. This low shot total just spells all sorts of disaster.
This low shot total just spells all sorts of disaster.
The shot total in and of itself isn’t the disaster as much as what the minimal shot total is a symptom of, which is minimal puck possession.
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The team is still finding it’s way under Hunter. I think you will see higher shot totals as they gain more confidence and most importantly, get the W’s. We can slice and dice all day:
Boston does not have absurdly high shot/game totals but hey have absurdly high save percentages from both goalies. SJS has less goals/game than WAS but absurdly high shots per game by comparison; PIT has a lower save % than WAS but averages about 1/3 of a goal per game less.
This shit will drive you crazy after a while; I advise everyone to relax, enjoy the W’s, and enjoy the triumphant return of Nicky and hopefully Mike Green.
I’m with you there. Unbelievable that all I can feel is depressed about a team that has been 8-3 in its last 11.
Capitals goal scored by #22, Mike...
by KNUUUUUUUUUUBLE on Jan 19, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
I’m enjoying the wins, but I’ve enjoyed regular season wins before. What I want to do is enjoy playoff wins. So the how they’re winning is every bit as important to me as that they’re winning. And how they’re winning right now doesn’t project well for the future.
Of course, it’s conceivable that Dale Hunter has it all figured out and will metaphorically flip off the stats community with his bucking of their conventional wisdom… but until it happens, I reserve the right to remain skeptical.
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by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
We truly have seen everything from this team. The NHL obviously misses the firewagon Caps, as do I. But I’ll take a dose of boring Caps hockey if it get us to the ECF.
You may have nailed it when you say that Hunter is possibly bucking all conventions and come playoff time, this team will find that groove, and the goaltending will be p to the task.
That is my fervent hope, anyway.
the NHL maybe should have thought about it a little harder when they decided to allow obstruction and interference back in the game….
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by RedBirdie on Jan 19, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It has become rampant this season. Almost exponentially greater than last season.
You’re the boss, applesauce.
Yeah, it’s not even as sneaky as it used to be. Now the defender makes no effort to get out of the way of the forward going in after the dump in. I’d like to see forwards check the shit out of them and make the refs make a call one way or another.
Tu ne cede malis
by _Skullduggery_ on Jan 19, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
I’ll take boring if it’s projectable that it wins (a la the Devils model). That’s not the case here right now, but it may very well get there.
One of the problems is that this is the Rangers model. The coaches have said as much themselves – block a lot of shots, hit, get good goaltending. But remind me how many playoff series the Tortorella Rangers have won.
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by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I don’t know. I mean I absolutely get the skepticism, but on the other hand, I have seen a caps team who was not offensively challenged end up with diddly in the playoffs because when the goals became harder to get their defense couldn’t keep them in the game. If this coach wants them to improve in their own end before focusing on shot generation and he is still getting points while doing it… I am all for that.
Yeah, I don’t disagree with that (and that really circles back to why the move should’ve been made in the offseason, but that’s spilled milk at this point), but I’m not sure they have the luxury of potentially sacrificing points while breaking bad habits and forming new ones right now. And we’re 23 games into the Hunter Administration – you’d think you’d be getting better returns by this point.
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Hence the skepticism. And believe me I’m right there with you. I’m just taking a wait and see approach at the moment. I think Hunters system could work, and like you I think any move should probably have been made sooner. Then there is also the personnel issue. I guess what I am saying is. I don’t feel like this is the year they will do anything special. But with some work, and the correct personnel in place I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see it lead to something special.
I agree with your basic point, but am not sure what ‘the’ move was that should have been made in the offseason…moving BB out and going to a Hunteresque system?
Yes, they should have replaced Bruce with Dale in the summer, allowed Dale to get some players that better fit his system and a summer/training camp/early season for the team to learn it. Instead, we get building the airplane while it’s already rolling down the runway.
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Gotcha; that is what I thought you meant. I am not nearly as positive about Dale per the following discussion but that doesn’t subtract from your basic point that Dale should have been in at the start to get the ‘system’ engrained. I try to be confident but, clearly, we remain a work-in-progress at this point which is unfortunate.
even when they do have the puck, they don’t seem particularly interested in holding on to it. Or they’re dog tired and need to change. So often, I see the Caps get the puck, chip it into the offensive zone and immediately go for a change, or quickly fall back into a defensive posture. So frustrating to watch.
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Wheeling out
the old chart from a few years ago
The teams in green made the playoffs and the red number is Offensive zone time for that regular season.
Seems that is certainly a fairly significant factor on its own.
No, I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande
by Icebat on Jan 19, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I think it’s also an issue with generating sustained offense from what possession they do have. I’m seeing a number of occasions where they have significant zone time, but either don’t get a shot or the shot doesn’t get on net.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Persistent low shot totals might be thought of as on a continuum. At one end you have “no shots because we’re always at the other end of the ice.” At the other end youu have, “no shots because we’re not taking them when we have the opportunity.” Given the shot differentials (without delving into the attempts), it seems the Caps spend entirely too much time at the wrong end of the ice.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Given the shot differentials…
… and block totals…
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Hold the phone...
But are they so must struggling to get them on net or simply choosing not to? The Islanders game is what it is, but I’m not one to think they’d have any difficulty hitting 30 shots on net a game if they still fired on the rush every time they got close to the opposition.
Last night was especially one such case, and it was the same with their last game against Tampa Bay. I’d hardly say they were “struggling” against Buffalo either, where they only registered 21 shots on goal, but often times when one team generates a big lead early, they’re going to let up a bit. You can whine about it all you want, but the Capitals’ record when playing with a lead speaks for itself.
I keep reading regulars claiming that this is unsustainable, that the Capitals are doomed to run with this system into the playoffs, but our recent record proves otherwise. Many keep claiming the Capitals aren’t playing as well as their record suggests, but I just don’t see it. When are we going to stop making excuses and just give Hunter the benefit of the doubt?
The plus/minus bothers me, and so does our road record. There’s plenty of things to be worked on, especially with our back check, but I just don’t see the need in harping over shot totals every game when they’re shutting out opposition, even if they’re games they supposed to win regardless.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 1:06 PM EST reply actions
I keep reading regulars claiming that this is unsustainable, that the Capitals are doomed to run with this system into the playoffs, but our recent record proves otherwise. Many keep claiming the Capitals aren’t playing as well as their record suggests, but I just don’t see it. When are we going to stop making excuses and just give Hunter the benefit of the doubt?
Last ten games, Caps have:
- 7 wins
- played 3 teams that if the playoffs started today are playoff teams.
- beaten only 1 of the playoff teams (Pittsburgh)
I’m usually Ms. Warm and Fuzzy, Positive-all-the-way, Believe Believe Believe! But I’m not believing in Hunter. The Caps will make it to the playoffs, but I’m extremely worried that they will get burned, and burned badly come April.
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And if they are, then what? A couple months ago many of you were ready to jump off the ledge and sell on the idea of them even making the playoffs. This team is still a work in progress, and yet they’re consistently winning games and stringing streaks together. Is the team perfect? Of course not.
But at this stage of Hunter’s tenure with the Capitals, I cannot believe the negativity coming from this community. Even if it was the back-up goaltender, they consistently outplayed the Rangers a few weeks ago. And Nashville. And they only lost to New Jersey by the shootout.
Jim Johnson has mentioned before that he wants to work on defense before the team should focus on offense. I feel like we’re seeing that right now. I don’t think that Vokoun’s and Neuvy’s turnaround is indicative of their own motions. The team is play significantly better defensively, imho.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
They’re not supposed to flame out in April. GMGM did not let pieces walk, did not trade guys, and did not bring in oodles of new guys to get bounced in the first round again. This team was put together to win. it. all. And I’m not even sure they can win a playoff game at this point.
They should not be a work in progress. They are the Washington Capitals, the consensus favorites to win the Cup back in September. Hunter borderline infuriates me. His bench management is mind boggling. Carlson and Alzner have clearly and steeply regressed under him. Chimera, the team’s second leading scoring, his wallowing down on the 4th line—a line that maaaaaaaybe gets 5 minutes of ice time.
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by RedBirdie on Jan 19, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This team was put together to win … with Bruce Boudreau.
New coach, new system. Expectations must be lowered. Or, maybe, just should be. I won’t presume to tell you how to motivate yourself or judge the Capitals, but I just don’t see the source of doom and gloom. The Capitals penalty kill and power-play has been running effectively lately. It’s been running so damn well that our plus/minus makes the team look worse than it actually is, where you have games like Tampa Bay where they build up a lead early on … and on the PPer.
So we lost a couple of games in California. Big deal. We won’t face them in the playoffs unless we’re going for the Stanley Cup, and let’s be honest — it’s just not our year. Should it have been? Perhaps, but we could just as easily be this year’s Philadelphia Flyers, built to win and just not doing it. And let’s face it — they’re a more talented team these days than the Capitals.
Again, I won’t presume to tell you how to root for this team, but there’s no sense beating yourself up over Dale Hunter. That “wallowing” Jason Chimera ended up playing 16 minutes last night with two SOG, and Carlson and Alzner have been mediocre all season. Give him time.
Bruce leaving the Capitals may be the best thing that happened to this team post-lockout.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Bruce leaving the Capitals may be the best thing that happened to this team post-lockout.
Bruce leaving and Dale coming are two different things.
Also, I disagree on Carlson and especially Alzner – prior to the change, Alzner was playing great.
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You know, I take that back. I was really just thinking of Carlson, and those two are inseparable in my mind.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
I consider games against playoff teams, regardless of conference, to be measuring stick games. the Caps aren’t winning those games.
I’ve given dale Hunter 23 games now. You’re welcome to go back through my (many) posts, but I think you’ll find that I, although a huge fan of Bruce, withheld judgment of any sort on Hunter until very recently. I voiced my nervousness about hiring a coach with no professional coaching experience. But I did not arrive at “I’m really not a fan of how Hunter has been doing things” until recently, when there were enough games to confidently say certain things that Hunter is doing aren’t “feeling things out” but worrisome habits that give the appearance of not being able to guide this team to at least the conference finals.
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I’m largely with you here, especially on the SJS/LAK games – no real difference between playing them and BOS/OTT other than a bit of familiarity.
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Not that it’s an excuse, but the Capitals don’t won Sharks games in San Jose. I wouldn’t use it as much of a measuring stick of Dale Hunter’s ability to coach the Capitals.
And correct me if I’m wrong, but Bruce Boudreau didn’t have any NHL coaching experience before taking over the Capitals either. And guiding this team to “at least” the Conference Finals? Not even Bruce could do that. You really expect Dale to do it in his first year, mid-season?
Unless, of course, you’re talking more long-term, and there’s no telling what the make-up of this team will be come next September. I’ve always been one to say that what limits this team from winning the Cup was never Bruce but always the players.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Bruce had professional experience (and experience with a number of the guys on that Caps squad), something Hunter, as a OHL coach, did not. I also note the Bruce was an “interim” coach when he took over and was not named coach for the rest of the season until he proved himself, telling me GMGM was really unsure that his wild gambit would pay off.
Bruce could have and should have guided the Caps to 2? 3? conference finals appearances. I think that’s one of the reasons GMGM finally said “enough” in November. Bruce couldn’t get them to the conference finals, couldn’t guide them through the November mess. Couldn’t do the “big” things he was hired to do.
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I’m not going to split hairs over what constitutes acceptable previous coaching experience, considering coaching in the NHL is nothing like anything below it. Hunter has coached “a number of the guys” on the current Caps roster as well, which is why Carlson’s performance is so perplexing. He should be thriving under Hunter.
I suppose the question I should ask is: what is your expectation for this season? Never mind what they should have been under Bruce. That’s in the past, and we can only speculate what-ifs.
But this season, right now, today — what do you expect of Hunter? Would you be happy with division lead? A playoff seed? Simply hitting 100+ points in the standings?
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
which is why Carlson’s performance is so perplexing. He should be thriving under Hunter.
Or is Carlson a perfect example of why Hunter’s system won’t work. Think about it – the system is the same… the player is the same (but better). What’s the real variable here? The quality/skill of the opponents is much, much higher. If Player X can be very successful in System Y at one level, but is a disaster in the same system at a different level (despite success in another system), it might just be that the system doesn’t translate. I’m not sure I buy that, but it makes some theoretical sense.
As for what would make me, personally, happy is convincing evidence that things are headed in the right direction and that the ceiling is high enough to eventually win the Cup. I’d imagine that would require at least a playoff appearance and a reasonable showing once there.
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by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That does make sense, but I am more inclined to think that Carlson is in the middle of a sophomore slump, for the same thing that happened to Neuvirth early on this season. It’s difficult to buy into as well, but it’s hard to judge a player off the performance of just one season — especially a defenseman, and a young one at that.
Whether or not the Capitals face a pretender like Florida (which seems somewhat likely given the circumstances lately) in the first round of the playoffs, I figure winning is the key. But what if the Caps fall out of division lead and are forced to play New York or Boston?
I assume anything north of what happened with Tampa Bay last year would be considered a “reasonable showing.”
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I have to think that the sophomore slump is a big factor. Go down the list of top D-men in the league and you’ll regression after solid first years in the NHL.
I think the biggest change for them as a whole is not having Green in the lineup. I don’t think his absence can be overstated. Sure, Green missed a lot of games last year too, but those came at the end of the season. And we all saw what happened in the playoffs.
Not having that top Dman on the roster has to impact the entire corps. Wideman is not Mike Green, neither is Hamrlik; Wideman+Hamrlik does not equal Mike Green.
(BTW, we’ve owned NYR in the playoffs even when they thump us in the regular season, so bring it on.)
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Miek Green laughs at your notion of a sophomore slump
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He laughs. And then he pulls his groin. And hits his head.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
and sprains his ankle while blocking shots with his teeth.
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Normally I don’t really believe in the sophomore slump—looks to me more like the guy overacheived in his first year and his percentages went back to normal or he got put into tougher situations the next year, like Myers—but I don’t know how to look at Carlson’s numbers and see a better player than he was last season.
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by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Leaving aside the question of whether these players are a fit for the system, is Hunter’s system that different from any others run in the NHL that it’s a question of whether it works at this level?
This reminds me a bit of the talk in the press about Bruce’s system before the ill-fated Montreal playoffs—whether his score first system could work in NHL. It worked in AHL, but… (I think whether the Habs series really answered that question is up for debate, but it seemed to answer negatively it in the minds of the Caps.)
by kingbonehead on Jan 19, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I’m going to be a stubborn person and say that the Bruce system could have worked, but the NHL plays this little game where the playoffs are called very differently than the regular season.
That, and that Halak guy played out of his fucking mind.
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by RedBirdie on Jan 19, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For whatever it’s worth, I have many years of live Caps @ Sharks games to base this on, and this year’s game was the best for the Caps in years. At least they were in contention through most of the game.
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by Gould Old Days on Jan 19, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
So we lost a couple of games in California. Big deal. We won’t face them in the playoffs unless we’re going for the Stanley Cup, and let’s be honest — it’s just not our year.
Well that’s just the thing, isn’t it? You’re asking why there’s so much “doom and gloom” (which seems to me more like reasonable analysis backed up by numbers). I think it’s because people expect that with the talent on this team, the Caps should be in the running for a cup. You’re basically telling people to give up on the season and not be disappointed about it.
I’m telling no one to “give up” on the season. It’s January. What happens between now and April is anyone’s guess. All I’m suggesting is to temper expectations a little bit, and step away from the ledge.
In spite what this team was coming into the season, that didn’t pan out. Bruce was let go. And regardless of how many shots the team is putting on net, they look so much better now than they did in November. Especially the special teams. How long did it take for Ovechkin to score a PP goal on home ice? Now it feels like it happens in every home game, though I know it’s not actually.
There’s just so many positive things to look at with this team right now that dwelling on the negative in the middle of January seems strange. The team knows what it needs to work on. That’s a whole lot different from all the “I don’t knows” we heard from Bruce for weeks, and half of last season.
by Release The Mackan! on Jan 19, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
They are the Washington Capitals, the consensus favorites to win the Cup back in September.
And that was based on Ovechkin returning to form, elite goaltending from Vokoun, a healthy Green and Backstrom, establishment of Carlzner as top D pair, and veteran leadership.
Can we say that we got any of those reliably this year? Some of those are starting to appear – Ovi’s been scoring and TV’s play has improved from the season’s start.
Carlzner – I’m not sure it’s as bad as it looks. And way more on Carlson than Alzner. This is both of their second full seasons as NHLers – so some regression can be expected. And now they are learning a new system.
Chimera – He’s been a surprise hasn’t he? He’s also tied with Brouwer for 2nd leading goal scorer. But he’s hardly been wallowing on the 4th line. He was down there for a game maybe. He belongs on the 3rd (maybe 2nd) line – that’s where his abilities are best suited. He’s having a career year right now, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves and think he’s a scoring winger. He has the nickname of “Hands of Stone” for a reason.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
The two other playoff teams we lost to were on the road in California. The Caps have of late had trouble in CA, even in their best years.
Never mind that they are in the West and if we see them in the playoffs, I’ll be quite happy.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
I do believe in Hunter,look at the mess he inherited I think we have some players that just aren’t ready for the NHL and some that just don’t belong.I don’t think this team will go far unless McPhee gets us someone that can put points on the board on a consistent basis.We do have two draft picks in the first round of the draft.Do we trade one for some offensive help or keep them both and wait till next year?
by Caps Fan since 84 on Jan 19, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
When are we going to stop making excuses and just give Hunter the benefit of the doubt?
When his team can consistently outperform (not just outscore) its opponents, especially the lesser ones.
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So, would win next Tuesday against BOS be enough to give Hunter some cred? What would be convincing enough, given the absence of 2 of their top 4 scoring threats?
A run of games in which they aren’t badly out-shot, out-possessed and out-chanced would be a start. No one win does much to convince me that the ship is righted.
One of the problems, as I see it, is that Hunter wants every game to be, at best, a 50/50 chance of winning. That’s great when you’re on the road against Detroit (or even Montreal – winning on the road in the NHL is tough). But if that’s how you play at home against the Carolinas, Tampas and Isles of the world, you get what you get – some wins, some losses… but nothing convincing.
Let me ask you a question – how many games under Hunter have you said, “Y’know, if they play ‘em all like that, they’ll be in good shape”? Here’s my quick list (though I could be persuaded to drop and/or add some): @OTT, NSH, NYR, BUF, maybe a little bit of @CBJ.
They’re a work in progress, to be sure. But I’m far from convinced, that’s all.
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nashville is the only one for me. They controlled that game for the entire 60 minutes. not so against Ottawa. Against new york? Another Rinker and I were watching that game together and kept saying “there must be a force field around the goal, preventing these Rangers shots from going in!” Had to mount a comeback against Columbus.
Buffalo, I plead ignorance on—I know I saw it, but any detail beyond “WIN!” is lost in the beer.
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I can buy that (and should’ve added that the “little bit of @CBJ” was after they dug the hole).
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that C-Bus game was such a firewagon Caps game. it was like a flashback. Give up two goals? Who cares! 3 goals in 20 minutes? NO PROBLEM!
I loved and hated those Capitals teams. mostly loved, until the playoffs.
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I’m at the point now where I’m resigned to this being a long, slow arc on the learning curve. It shouldn’t be, but there we are. I’ll now be looking at the last 15-20 games (essentially, after March 1st), watching to see if this team finally “gets it” and becomes “the team no one wants to play.”
Last season, Boston was 25-13-7 after 45 games (57 points); the Caps are at 25-18-2 (52 points), the difference being loser points.
Anyway, that’s what I’m sticking to.
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Jan 19, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The season before (2009-10), the Flyers came in as leading contenders for the Cup, having making a big acquisition in the offseason. Through 45 games they were 23-21-3 (49 points).
They clinched the last playoff spot in a shootout win in their last game. And they ended up being an OT goal from winning it all.
Not worried either.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Not worried. I literally, no snark, wish I felt the same way.
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Philly was further away than just an OT goal. they would have needed to win that game, plus the follow game.
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Forgot it only went to six games. The point is still valid. Get in the playoffs and who knows what will happen.
by Gin and Tonic on Jan 19, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I’d love to be that far away.
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Jan 19, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
I am unimpressed as well. In fact, I can say that I am unimpressed by the majority of games I watch, compared to what we’re used to seeing. That is an important difference: what we’re used to.
Watching Boudreau’s system was like drinking absinthe, with giddy euphoria ensuing, followed by a crushing hangover. Hunter is more like prune juice by comparison – no kick, but necessarily cathartic. That was not the best analogy, but I’m trying!
If they get 25 shots on goal, give up 2 or less G/G, and play well on special teams, they can go far, I think. I mean, the skill is there, and some new fundamentals are taking hold.
I’m hopeful.
That begs the question: what is outscoring if not outperforming? Who cares who looks better moving the puck around the ice? Not me. I’ll take outscoring, also known as “winning”, any damn day. If they continue to outscore teams, including and necessarily the lesser ones, they will go far. Who cares about their performance in those wins. Right? Or do you posit that the underperformance will eventually lead to less outscoring? Fair enough. What if it doesn’t? What will that say about all of the #fancystats and line charts and hypotheses?
"He leaves every ounce of energy that he has on the ice and works very hard at it, and he wants to be the best and he wants to win, If you don’t follow that, you’ve got something wrong with you."
by nogoodtrying on Jan 19, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
If they continue to outscore teams, including and necessarily the lesser ones
If the Caps continue to get outplayed and get dominated in possession they are unlikely to continue to outscore any teams, especially the ones that make the playoffs.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jan 19, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I’ll take outscoring, also known as "winning", any damn day. If they continue to outscore teams, including and necessarily the lesser ones, they will go far.
Anyone here will take outscoring if they can do it reliably. If they can win the Stanley Cup with 1 SOG per game, surrendering 50 and blocking another 50, so be it.
It’s not about who “looks” better, it’s about who is controlling the play and creating more scoring opportunities.
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 20, 2012 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly. To me, simply put (and this is in line with K_C above), “outperforming” would indicate that the “outscoring” was more than luck; it would be convincingly and repeatedly demonstrating that they’re the better team.
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2011-12 Sh%, Boudreau’s Caps: 10.2%
2011-12 Sh%, Hunter’s Caps: 10.2%
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by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Quality vs Quantity?
Be Utterly Facinating @ http://www.thirstdc.com
by TheFuryUnleashed on Jan 19, 2012 2:30 PM EST reply actions
Nope—I think scoring chances for are down/stable, scoring chances against are up.
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
My current working theory is that the shot quantity is being driven solely by possession numbers. This team passed up shots, routinely, under Boudreau, so that’s nothing new. I think what is new is drastically less puck possession. Essentially, I bet their “shots per possession” (if you could visualize such a metric – it’s conceptual, untestable, theoretical, etc.) is similar to what it has been all along, but those possessions are just less frequent and thus lower shot totals.
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by J.P. on Jan 19, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The upshot here is that if they ever figure out the backend, possession will increase and then so will the shots. Point being, I don’t think the system is necessarily terrible at generating shots, per se, but is terrible at generating possessions which lead to shots.
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I guess the big question is whether with the new system, the sacrifice of puck possesion is being offset by real improvement in the defensive part of their game? If scoring chances for the opposition haven’t been reduced, I’m not sure it’s worth the tradeoff. However, I’m still hopeful because there is still time for the Caps to improve how they play in the new system.
I don't want to work, I want to hang on the blog all day.
If scoring chances for the opposition haven’t been reduced…
Someone who’s tracking them can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe they have been. And shots on goal against are up (I know that’s true).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
That means the follow up question to the last question is, why aren’t the scoring chances from the opposition down? The obvious answer is that if the Caps are possessing the pucks less, the opposition is possessing it more and more possession by the opposition is leading to more scoring chances. The next question I have is, are the Caps playing stronger defensively but that is being mitigated by lack of puck possession allowing opponent scoring chances to remain steady? Or, are the Caps playing worse defensively and that is being exacerbated by the lack of puck possession? I guess what I’m after is a metric showing number of scoring chances vs a unit of puck possesion.
I don't want to work, I want to hang on the blog all day.
I don’t think they’re really playing “better” defense. They’re lower in the D-zone (something that started under Bruce) and diving more to block shots (sometimes taking themselves out of position), but I’m not sure the other fundamentals are there. And somehow their terrible clearing instincts have gotten worse.
"Money talks. I listen."
Roughly akin to "plays per possession: in football. 12-play drives suck the life out of the other team. In hockey, the frequency to be accommodated in any set of observations is much higher (more “possessions” to observe).
If you've read this far...seek help.
Right. And in basketball, they chart “shots per 100 possessions” or similar.
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RAL – you track zone entries, yeah? Any chance you could provide average zone entries per game under the two coaches as a proxy for possessions? If you had that, you could take shots/zone entry and see if the real issue is possession vs. shot generation itself.
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Sorry. I wish, but I’m pretty far behind.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
This is a terrific discussion but can’t we agree on a couple basic points and then move on to player-related issues?: 1) Both BB & DH are capable, good coaches. 2) Ideally, it would have been better if the current personnel arrangement would have been constructed with the current coach in mind, 3) Coaching effects can only go so far. With those in mind, I think the current frustration has to do with the fact that player production (defined here as goals, puck possession, shooting percentage) isn’t where we all thought it would be. My personal evaluation is that only Backstrom, Alzner, Brouwer, Halpern, Wideman, Orlov, and Chimera have performed at their expected (and hoped-for) levels. Ovi, Hamr, and TV (and Neuvy, you too please) are turning the corner, which probably explains our recent improvement in wins/losses. The point, though, is that if this general overall assessment is basically correct (and it certainly might not be!), a significant number of players need to pick up their game if we are going to make the playoffs….regardless of coach and offensive/defensive ‘system.’
No, I don’t think so.
1) Both BB & DH are capable, good coaches.
BB, yeah. DH, at some point, probably, but it’s hard to say right now.
3) Coaching effects can only go so far.
Bylsma took the Pens from a <50% Corsi team to a 55+% Corsi team. Mediocre to elite. Hunter has taken the Caps from a what, 53% Corsi team (well above average) to a 47% (poor)? Something like that.
a significant number of players need to pick up their game if we are going to make the playoffs
Yeah, agree on that. I’m more focused on the top of the roster—Ovechkin, Semin, Johansson, Wideman, Carlson, and Alzner (Knuble would be nice, too).
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. The Bylsma stat is mind-boggling. That by itself certainly undermines my hypothesis about coaching effects. Wow, just wow. Putting that together with the dubiousness of the current performance under DH certainly provides some concern and cynicism going forward. That being the case, we come full circle to the proposition that the Caps will go just as far as the Young Guns (the expanded Guns with the current injury-depleted roster) will take them….presumably your last point.
Admittedly those are extreme, most coaches can’t do that.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
But how much of that was just the fact of the coaching change? The Pens had quit on their coach that year
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Jan 19, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno, I haven’t heard any stories like the Therrien-Sykora-Malkin one…..
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They were pretty mediocre in that respect the previous season as well (outshot by three per game, decent special teams, best shooting% team at 5v5 and tied for second-highest sv% at 5v5).
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 19, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Posted this in clips but meant to post it here:
Last night marks the 13th straight game that the Caps have been outshot.
In that time, the margin has been close to 10 shots (21.9 to 31.1).
The Caps’ record has been 8-4-1in those 13 games.
If the Caps were a stock, I would short sell
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Jan 19, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
The problem isn’t the system, the problem is poor decisions on the breakout. E.g., chips into the neutral zone that the opposition just scoops up, turnovers on outlet passes, etc. Last night the Caps finally showed what a quick and efficient breakout can do for the team. The game against the Isles was a stinker, and although we didn’t register a lot of shots, there were a lot of shots that just trickled wide.
Last night, we could’ve easily put a 4 or 5 spot against Montreal if we convert on a few more of those odd-man rushes, which the Hunter system is designed to create. We were on the PK for what seemed like half the game, but you’re lying if you don’t think the Caps were in control the majority of that game.
by David C. Rothman on Jan 19, 2012 4:21 PM EST reply actions
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