Friday Caps Clips: Capitals @ Blackhawks Game Day
Your savory breakfast links:
- Previews and sorta-previews of preseason game #3 coming soon (maybe), and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner, Second City Hockey, for more coverage from the other side of tonight's match-up.
- Notes and assorted whatnot from out at Kettler:
- In general. [Caps365 video (Boudreau), Caps Overtime, Peerless, @kathrynhockey (pics)]
- The time for decision making is upon us. Or rather, upon Bruce Boudreau. [CI (Carrera)]
- With that in mind, we bid adieu for now to Brandon Anderson and Philipp Grubauer ... [CW (Whyno)]
- ... and welcome The Tomas Vokoun Era to Caps hockey, as Vokes gets the nod to start his first game tonight. Giggity. [CI (Carrera), DCEx (McNally)]
- Camp battles update:
- The carousel of first line right wings makes another revolution. Introducing the Ward 8 Line. [DCEx (McNally, and again), CI (El-Bashir), CW (Whyno), WTOP (Raby)]
- The first line center position has been remarkably stable this training camp. But what could that mean for Nicklas Backstrom? [CSN Washington (Gormley), CW (Whyno)]
- There's quite the competition for third line center. [WashTimes (Whyno)]
- Just ask Cody Eakin and Mathieu Perreault. [NHL.com (Masisak)]
- And that final forward roster spot has plenty of suitors. [WashTimes (Whyno)]
- Thoughts on the old man of the bunch. [Peerless, CRtC]
- A(nother) Semin defense, with #fancystats. [Imbroglioh]
- A chip off the old Bourque. [Montreal Gazette (Cowan), Capitals Voice (audio)]
- Troy Brouwer brings size, skill, versatility, and a Stanley Cup ring. [KoL]
- Braden Holtby mixes it up in camp this year... [CW (Whyno)]
- ...and the great Hockey Diaries crew gifts us with more content from Holtby and Matt Hendricks. [@mediachameleon (video, audio)]
- Christian Hanson embraces his dad's legacy. [CSN Washington (Gormley)]
- Hershey head coach Mark French is super pumped about Dmitry Orlov... [RMNB]
- ...and Dima gets a chance to respond. [RMNB]
- Party. Tomorrow. Go. [RSVP]
- Finally, happy #60 to #66... Milan Novy.
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camp battles update
The talk all summer has been the big “who will be the 2C”..Who knew it was going to be Backstrom.
OK, time for some technobabble. This is an instance in which the designation “1” or “2” for whatever line should be viewed as “nominal” designation of a line, not an “ordinal” ranking. Don’t pay so much attention to who plays the “first” line or the “second” line — after all, the “first” line as we have come to know it doesn’t start every game. If the “third” line starts, is it the “first” line?
Watch ice time and who gets the top minutes at even strength. Power play time doesn’t enter into this, nor does penalty killing time. Each requires players with specialized skill sets for the conditions. Even strength ice time — and who gets it — will indicate if there is a “first” and a “second” line in terms of ordinal rankings. And I suspect that the top two lines will be getting more or less equivalent amounts of ES ice time…
…except when Bruce is in a juggling mood.
If you've read this far...seek help.
And I suspect that the top two lines will be getting more or less equivalent amounts of ES ice time…
…except when Bruce is in a juggling mood.
So, the top two lines will never the the same amount of ES time?
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
by Bman21212 on Sep 23, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nominal line designations are an overly simplistic and probably dated way of looking at things. “Watch ice time and who gets the top minutes at even strength” is obviously much more informative, and to that I’d add “Watch who gets what zone starts and faceoffs.”
Point being, it’s not as if a coach necessarily has a “best” line and then three others that fall in line behind it based on aggregated talent. Each line has (or should have) a specific role (or multiple roles) and when a situation presents itself and that role is needed, that’s the “number one” line.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
If we’re just looking at lines 1&2, isn’t it typically:
“ice time and who gets the top minutes at even strength” = Ovi’s line
“who gets what zone starts and faceoffs" = Nicky’s line
So if BB splits the two of them up, I can see why he’d call them lines 1a and 1b.
"You can want to get to April but when you get to April you may not like the answers you get, so you might as well enjoy the ride while it's going on." - Brian McNally on JRR, 8/29/2011
And if the Caps spend the period hemmed in their own zone with occasional PP’s, the 3rd and 4th lines would get more ice time than usual.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
More to the point, when you’re late into the third and behind by a goal, see what line combination is sent out. Good chance that’s your real #1 line.
See, I disagree. That’ll be your #1 scoring line (and quite likely not a regular line – 8-19-28, for example). If you’re late in the third and up a goal, you’ll likely see your #1 checking line. If you want to see the “real #1 line,” maybe that’s the trio he puts out late in a tied game.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I guess it’s a matter of interpretation. For me, a #1 line should be your most dangerous to defend, but I see your point. Then again, I put little value into the designation of #1 or #2 (or #3 for that matter) lines since they change so often in hockey, particularly under Boudreau. I do like the idea of occasionally splitting up Ovi and Nick and letting the opposition pick their poison.
And I suspect that the top two lines will be getting more or less equivalent amounts of ES ice time…
Disagree here, unless Backstrom and Ovechkin are not playing on the same line.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 23, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Accidentally hit post too soon:
Here’s last year’s TOI chart, for example (unfortunately including EN situations). 8-19-22 and 28 are well ahead of everyone else, and the delta between 8-19 and 28 is greater than between 28 and 90 (the next highest full-season Cap). Ovechkin and Backstrom are always going to get the most TOI, to try and catch the other team’s fourth line, to take a defensive zone faceoff against a good faceoff man, etc. I don’t think that’s drastic enough to constitute “line juggling” though it literally is, since it’s just for a shift here or there.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 23, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Vogel
No TV during preseason.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
"This [job] would be so much easier if it wasn't for the fucking [customers]."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 23, 2011 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions
....

seriously, what kind of world are we living in when we can’t watch preseason Caps hockey on tv?!??!?
/end freakout
Ask Becca.
/ducks
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
"This [job] would be so much easier if it wasn't for the fucking [customers]."
by Bald Pollack on Sep 23, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought that I saw that NHL Network was going to carry the last Caps/Hawks game. Maybe not a live feed, but later on that day.
The blackout is designed to protect the local carrier’s market share. In this context, there is no local carrier, so there shouldn’t be a blackout.
I guess this is a positive step. It used to be there to protect local ticket sales.
Geeks of All Nations, Compile!
by AMusingFool on Sep 23, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Blackout or back out…
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by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
It looks like Gamecenter Live will have the Buffalo-Toronto (NHL) and the Rangers-Jersey game.
No caps :( Strange to see the fucture champs (the Caps) not have any preseason tv.
I didn’t say how far in the future..hehe
"One of the most difficult things everyone has to learn is that for your entire life you must keep fighting and adjusting if you hope to survive." -George Allen
Don’t want to alarm anyone, but you may see a non-Orlov piece on RMNB today. I promise you it is a one-time thing and we will return to all-Orlov-all-th- time immediately after.
Didn’t want anyone to think we got hacked or anything.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
My one day of watching Orlov in camp was really cool. He plays with the puck CONSTANTLY, always, always stickhandling.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
For being only 20 he’s nearly big enough to play in the NHL already. He must have incredible offseason ethic.
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
Waivers
I know Beagle and MP are subject to waivers on their way down to Hershey this year. What about Hanson, Potoulny, and Bourque? Are newly signed guys somehow exempted? Reviewing the awesome waiver summary by PPP (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/11/26/1174855/waivers-101-a-guide-to-the-nhl) it appears not. If they are subject to waivers, I could see Hanson perhaps attracting some attention — not such much the other two.
None of those guys is waivers-exempt.
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Interesting. As I suggested above, that has to help Hanson as I seem to recall that he had some other suitors. If the choice came down to MP or Hanson, I wonder who GMGM/BB would risk sending down. At this point, I would have to give Hanson a slight edge in being able to forge an NHL career though MP certainly has more upside. And Hanson’s skill set is more replaceable than MP’s if MP can capitalize on some of that upside. So I’m guessing the waivers angle weighs slightly in MP’s favor over Hanson.
by Dirk Dangler on Sep 23, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you really think another team sees Hanson as definitely worth of a spot on their NHL roster? He’s an AHL+ type of guy, and if he’s sent down, I sincerely doubt anyone will claim him.
As a TO fan, you certainly have seen more him than me. But yes, I can see it. It’s not like a team has to keep him the whole season. I can see him being better than some other 4th line options around the league, so why not give him a shot. If he sucks (a la Chris Bourque a couple of seasons ago with the Pens), put him back on waivers. My sense though is that there is a bit of the old boy network at play here, and other GMs won’t grab a guy like him unless they really think it’s an upgrade/upside pick up.
by Dirk Dangler on Sep 23, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think your last point is the biggest here. Bourque had a bigger upside than Hanson, and I think that it’s the reason that he was claimed by Pittsburgh (who gave him every opportunity to succeed).
Have you watch any preseason games this year? In them, the NHL players are mixed with AHL/ECHL/CHL players, and it’s so obvious which ones are going to be sent down, because they just don’t play with the high level that the NHL guys do.
That’s Hanson. He’s just not good enough to cut it at this level, but will be a very good player in Hershey.
No I haven’t watched pre-season this year but have in the past and get what you’re saying. I’m sure part of my thinking is fanboy desire that he turns into something that he’s not now that he’s signed with the Caps.
by Dirk Dangler on Sep 23, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean that question to be accusatory (but as I read it now it sounds like it). I think that as knowledgeable fans, you may not be able to tell the borderline guys, but it’s always clear who isn’t ready. Hanson’s not ready (and I don’t think he ever will be).
I had the opportunity to see Potoulny dazzle at the scrimmage on Tuesday, and that was pretty much my takeaway. The kid is a damn good hockey player, but he’s not good enough to be a top 6 guy in the NHL, and he isn’t a good fit for a bottom 6 spot.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Under NHL (Capitals) contract and waiver exempt by my notes (not including players already sent to juniors):
G: Holtby, Grubauer
D: Flemming, Orlov, Stevenson, Carlson*
F: Eakin, Sjogren, Mitchell, Paquette, Johansson*,
(MicFlikier is waiver exempt this season, too, because my understanding is that this is his first NHL contract; Ford, I think the same as I don’t believe he’s been under NHL contract before, but haven’t confirmed)
Yes, by the waiver rules, see table 13.1 in the CBA, Carlson and Johansson are still waiver exempt to start this season.
Per Vogs:
The #Caps have reassigned Flemming, Brouillette, Rechlicz, Micflikier and Carroll to Hershey of the AHL.
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37 remaining in camp for now
G (4): Vokoun, Neuvirth
plus Holtby and Sabourin
D (12 + Poti): Alzner, Carlson, Green, Hamrlik, Schultz, Wideman
plus Collins, McNeill, Orlov, Richmond, Wellar, Erskine (no contact), Poti (LTIR)
F (21): Backstrom, Brouwer, Chimera, Halpern, Hendricks, Johansson, Knuble, Laich, Ovechkin, Semin, Ward
plus Aucoin, Beagle, Bourque, Eakin, Ford, Hanson, King, Perreault, Potulny, Sjogren
Anyone who’s been at camp have any insight on McNeill? I know he’s a long shot but has been a guy I’d like have the opportunity to see against NHL caliber players but haven’t yet had the opportunity.
by Dirk Dangler on Sep 23, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Vogs Media Guide "Nuggets"
From Vogs: here’s his blog post on the nuggets
Country Gentlemen's Pig Fertilizer Gazette
Dunny-on-the-World
Cellblock 303 Tyler Sloan interview
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
Predsbloggers are loving them some T-Slo.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Some of them…
Lemme quote the late, great Colonel Sanders. He said "I'm too drunk to taste this chicken."
by Chris Burton on Sep 23, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Enjoy.
"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."
by Whiter Mage on Sep 26, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
interesting quote
303: This team is known for a hard work ethic, never taking a shift off, that kind of thing. I’m certainly not suggesting that Washington doesn’t do those things but can you kind of compare the two?
TS: Yeah, you know, I think they’re very different make-ups. Washington has a lot of players like "Ovi," "Backie" and "Green" (Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green) and those guys who have a lot of skill but work ethic is something that Bruce always stressed and everybody tried to work on that. (In Nashville) everybody is held accountable, everybody buys in, everybody plays both ends of the ice. Practice is a great tempo and everybody’s working hard. I think here they make it happen. Work ethic really is really driven in. There, I think they’re working on that.
Lemme quote the late, great Colonel Sanders. He said "I'm too drunk to taste this chicken."
by Chris Burton on Sep 23, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Sigh. It’s depressing that someone threw a banana at Wayne Simmonds last night, and it’s unfortunately predictable that every single Puck Daddy commenter has some variation of “throwing bananas at a black man isn’t racist lololol political correctness.”
If you don’t understand the cultural context of throwing bananas at black people, you’re incredibly out of touch with society.
a capital wasteland - art & hockey from washington, d.c.
I had to think about it for a minute before I realized it was a racist thing to do instead of just a stupid thing to do during a shootout attempt…
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Chicago line-up – Whyno tweets that Sjogren going to Chicago instead of King.
Carrera tweets: “#Caps not playing tonight in Chicago got the day off. Those in the lineup will not practice Saturday morning.”
By my notes – Still in camp but not expected to play tonight:
F: Brouwer (recovering from inj) plus Backstrom, Halpern, Knuble, Semin, Beagle, Bourque, Perreault, King
D: Erskine (recovering from inj) plus Hamrlik, Wideman, McNeill, Orlov, Wellar
F: Holtby and Neuvirth
and:
kcarrera Katie Carrera
Jason Chimera left the #Caps practice this morning and hasn’t returned. Third line now looks like Eakin-Laich-Hendricks.
Milan Novy....
The first ever player in the NHL to wear #66. I wonder how many other players have worn it….

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
Funny though...
What was amusing to me though was that the search started trending Sasha and came up with this:
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 23, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Imbroglioh's post is definitely worth reading
One caveat about the penalty killing numbers – players who face the first unit are going to have a harder time of things than players who get rolled out against the weaker lineups. Theres normally a lot more “pick your poison” in a first unit – say you’re playing the Flyers and the first unit features Giroux and Briere. Who do you pay more attention to? One of those guys is going to have time and space and will kill you with it. The second unit might have JVR and Schenn and while not bad players, they won’t punish you the way the first two will if you make any kind if mistake.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 23, 2011 10:53 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Definitely worth reading, but the insistence that the Semin critiques are rooted in cultural bias grinds my gears. Odd that in an article which goes to such lengths to present a scholarly approach, there isn’t a single supporting citation to justify that claim. It’s obviously an opinion, and unproveable as such, but to not even recognize that there could be another, non-cultural, reason for criticizing Semin is upsetting and detracts from the attempted scholarly approach.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
These numbers are actually probably misleading because, while I’m a firm believer in the inverse correlation between shift length and effectiveness, Arnott in particular was taking ridiculously short shifts at even strength in the playoffs. It appears that it was as obvious to him as it was to me that he could barely hang on and keep up with NHL playoff pace, and he accordingly and wisely got off the ice at the earliest opportunity.
No mention of a leg injury that had him miss games late in the regular season. And no mention that most of the hockey community would agree that Arnott’s 42 second shift average is just about ideal. It only looks “ridiculous” compared to the Caps, a team notorious for pushing shift length to the limit.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yep.
Babcock is reportedly militant about controlling shift length, especially in the playoffs. You’d like to see zone starts in those charts also, ‘cuz that’s gonna have a big effect on your Corsi Rel.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 23, 2011 12:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And Babcock doesn’t buy the NHL.com TOI stats, fwiw.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
FWIW, my source on that:
Detroit assistant coach Paul MacLean is never without his stopwatch, clicking it each time the Wings make a line change. “We use our own time,” says Babcock, eschewing the arena stat sheet. For playoffs, he wants short shifts — 40 seconds, tops — making sure stars like LW Henrik Zetterberg stay fresh enough to sustain the tempo his two-way game demands. Quick, smart line changes are so crucial that the Wings devoted an entire practice to them during an unexpected layover in St. Louis last season. Bonus benefit: Quick changes prevent positioning breakdowns that result in odd-man rushes.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I imagine “Knoobs” and “Brads” are good friends who talked a lot, whereas it wouldn’t surprise me if Bradley and Semin have never had a conversation.
I’d be absolutely floored. I’d be absolutely floored if Brads hasn’t had more conversations with Semin than all of the non-Capital-employee supporters and critics of Semin combined.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 23, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with the article. I seriously doubt that Semin and Bradley ever spoke much at all and why would you think that they did? Given Semin’s discomfort with English and his shyness, he is the direct opposite of Bradley. Also, both Ovi and Semin said that Bradley never spoke to Semin to his face about his concerns. I get the feeling that Bradley did more talking to the media than he ever did in the locker room.
Have you ever been on a team sport? I’m not trying to be a dick. It doesn’t have to be hockey. These guys shared a locker room for 6 seasons. Can it possibly be logical that they didn’t talk? Semin doesn’t give interviews in English, but he was able to communicate with Arnott as soon as Arnott arrived. Unless Arnott is fluent in Russian and that never came out, it seems as though Semin can at least communicate with people in English.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 23, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Totally agree with you. Brads wasn’t in a position to be coast on his talent and be aloof like Semin. He had to work hard on the ice, and probably also in the locker room to help foster the camaraderie between everybody. Hell, he’s the one that leaked the “Jizz” nickname in an interview. Wouldn’t be surprised if he came up with it.
There was this from Arnott:
"You know what, I’ve talked to him a lot," Arnott said. "I got to know a little bit about him just coming here from other guys, that he was a little different cat. He’s very very talented, but for me, I just don’t know if guys took the time enough to talk to him enough and make him feel a part of everything, and also get on him when he does things wrong. I think he needs the corrections and a little more discipline in his game, and he needs to know how important he is to this team to win. So it’s just little things. I’ve been talking to him every day, and communication between linemates, it just helps a lot."
Emphasis mine.
Are you not entertained?
So what’s your takeaway? That Bradley never had a conversation with Semin? Mine is that maybe the conversations that were had weren’t what Arnott thought Semin needed. But to suggest that Bradley never talked to Semin, or that he doesn’t know Semin better than all of the critics and proponents of Semin, that just doesn’t make any sense to me.
I can accept that maybe the way certain teammates dealt with him wasn’t ideal. I can’t accept that they just didn’t know the guy or never talked to him.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Wasn’t Semin’s coach for a long time his father or something? He might have some serious issues within the locker room stemming from that.
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
Maybe. (But if you want locker room issues, Corey Perry’s dad was his coach and a cop…)
Some people are different, there’s no doubt about that. But 6 years is a long time to be on a team together, especially one that has a season as long as the NHL. I played hockey with some guys I flat out didn’t like, but I still knew them pretty damn well. It’s just inevitable with the kind of exposure you have together in that atmosphere.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, there’s more to it than that but there’s always a certain amount of resentment for the coach’s kid and if you’re as talented as Semin is, that could compound it (see: all the truly fucked up stuff that happened with Crosby in his junior years with parents wanting their kids to run Crosby because he was so talented at a young age)
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
We don’t know. I thought Arnott’s observation was pretty telling, if not surprising. I also can recall Knuble saying in an interview last year that he had never really talked to Semin, which was eye-opening. Backstrom also made a comment last season that left me with the impression that, as much as we all may think of the Young Guns as a unit, he didn’t know Semin that well. That surprised me, too.
Also, there’s casual chit chat in a group, teasing locker room comments, and passing small talk, but that’s not the same as having a conversation with someone one-on-one, periodically, over 6 seasons. I think it’s entirely plausible, maybe even likely, that Brads and Semin never had such a conversation. Not even once. Maybe partly due to language issues and partly due to opposite world views. Who knows?
Are you not entertained?
It’s not going to be 6 years of small talk. And even if it were, 6 years of small talk ends up telling you quite a bit about a person.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
The most surprising part of reading some of these responses is reading that Bradley was a Capital for 6 years. Time flies…
I wonder if they ever played Truth or Dare together. Or played with a ouija board…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
DID SEMIN AND BRADS EVER PILLOW FIGHT?!?!!?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Seriously. I need to know whether or not they painted each other’s nails before I can judge the validity of Bradley’s criticisms.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think you are probably the closest to it. I think Semin and Bradley are worlds apart in terms of personality, culture, language, interests, you name it. I doubt that Bradley even tried to talk to him and Semin probably ignored Bradley. Bradley’s comments were so pointed and so ridiculous (i.e., that someone could play at an elite level in the NHL and not care or that Semin wants to be in Russia when he could have left at any time when his contracts had expired) seems to suggest that was something else going on there under the surface between the two of them and Bradley was bitter about it (and bitter about not being resigned with the team).
What might have happened: Brads asked Semin repeatedly to recycle his water bottles instead of throwing them in the trash. Semin refused, repeatedly. Thus, Bradley concludes that “Semin doesn’t care..” (about the environment).
Your username suggests absolute impartiality on this subject.
Armareddon.
by D'ohboy on Sep 23, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Bump, set...
"Luckily, it’s not a math test, so the odds don’t really matter," Hanson said.
Don’t let me down, now.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
Never tell Hanson the odds.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 23, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
From the Whyno Article
With $4.5 million man Brooks Laich penciled in as likely the second-line left wing, the glaring hole is third-line center…
Booooooooooo.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
He’s been lining up at wing, and Brooks himself has said he felt penciled in at wing for the moment.
by Charlie Foxtrot on Sep 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
If that’s true, I want a 25/30/55 season from him at least.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Sep 23, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
If that’s true I want Boudreau fired.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Sep 23, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If that’s not true you want Boudreau fired, too.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Well, yeah. But this just adds more to the list of reasons.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Sep 23, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean… preseason is all about preparing for the regular season right?
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
We never put them away.
The Artist Formerly Known as CP2Devil.
Associate Editor at Five For Howling.
I feel like honor demands I join the march, but I can’t summon up the energy to be exercised about BB just yet. But I’ll be there by May.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
He is seriously losing much of the thin edge of benefit-of-the-doubt that he has with me just by playing Laich at wing in the preseason. If Laich is going to play center this year, then he needs to be practicing draws’n’stuff. He ought to be playing the preseason at the position he’s going to play the season.
And if he plays the season anywhere but 3C, I’m with SME.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s centering the third line tonight, according to Katie.
by Twenty Seven Ninety on Sep 23, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Any thoughts on the Jody Shelly suspension?
I think it’s a legitimate penalty, considering the player and previous actions.
Good decision.
Really interested to see what Shanny does when it’s not a goon of whom an easy example is made.
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Agree.
This is the key, have to wait for “when it’s not a goon…”
The only thing I go back and forth on is factoring in the injury as part of the decision.
I hate it (as I’ve probably made clear a thousand times before on the site, so I won’t rehash it without further provocation).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yes, I am not a fan in general/quick reaction whenever I hear about it. but for me there is some grey area.
Anyway, it was mentioned in the Shelley video, which is why I brought it up.
Besides, it’s quiet around here…
For me, I could see using it as a partial proxy for the severity of the hit – in other words, if it broke a guy’s face open, the hit must’ve been more violent than if it didn’t even bloody his nose, regardless of what we can actually tell from the replay.
But punishing to the injury punishes the result when it’s really the action itself that we want to deter. Should Matt Cooke be punished differently for identical hits if one victim is able to get up and skate off and the other is lying in a pool of his own blood? That doesn’t really make much sense to me.
And yes, I’m a lawyer who took Torts as a 1L – I know what an “eggshell skull” is and so forth…
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by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But if you’re a lawyer, you realize that people are penalized criminally for the amount of injury. You punch a guy and knock him out, you get 3 months in jail. You punch him and he falls into a coma, you get 6.
Right?
Right.
I also realize that this isn’t criminal law we’re talking about – it’s NHL supplemental discipline. There are different goals in punishment in each setting that make it ridiculous to treat the two similarly.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And if you have any common sense you realize that you shouldn’t map voluntary commercial sporting behavior on the criminal code. If anything it’d be mapped to civil code, negligence, etc., but even that has serious failings. So we’d all be better off if we just stopped trying to pretend that there should be some strong connection between the way we try to order behavior in a sporting league and the way we try to order civil behavior with the criminal code.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 23, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Sometimes you take something that I say and go about 10 steps beyond what I suggested.
A check in hockey or a big hit in football would, in real life, be considered assault, and I’m not suggesting that. I’m just saying that there are levels of penalties in everything, whether it’s civil or criminal, and they can be based on something like outcome. Why does that seem so outlandish to you?
The basis of your argument was an analogy to the criminal code. It’s also not the first time you’ve gone that route, and I’ve explained why it’s a flawed premise. I didn’t go “ten steps beyond” what you suggested, I just went with the logical conclusions and implications of your statement. Maybe that’s ten steps beyond what you had considered, but it’s not ten steps beyond what you suggested.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Because my suggestion seems (to me, obviously) reasonable.
Player A does something against the rules on the ice.
He had ample time to change his action (ie, it was premeditated) (something to consider).
He has had previous discipline from similar action (something to consider).
The action was severe enough to cause an injury (something to consider).
The action did cause an injury (something to consider).
What is so wrong about using these criteria (and others) to mete out a punishment?
Because whether there is an injury is largely luck, and punishing things based on luck doesn’t properly send signals by which people can adjust their behavior. The dangerous act should be deterred, and the act is dangerous whether or not Boyce gets up off the ice. Punishing based on injury allows players to continue to throw dirty hits, because, miraculously, NHL players get up unscathed following the majority of even dirty hits. So if there is little likelihood that you are going to be punished, because there will probably be no injury, then you have no reason to deter. Boyce wasn’t hurt, Shelley got 10 games, that’s the proper message. What purpose is served by punishing Shelley further if Boyce was seriously hurt? Vengeance and retribution for sure, but is that the proper goal of a system of supplemental discipline? How should injuries be factored in? Should the offender sit for as long as the injured player is hurt? Now you have a luck-driven standard that is in many ways divorced from the proper role of supplementary discipline. Should Joe Thornton still be suspended because Perron hasn’t played again? Or should he just get a token +2 games because there was an injury? Seems pointless to me.
And further, as the Steckel debacle should demonstrate (and the Thornton on Perron hit), focusing on injury is misguided because people tend to find a “dirty” play when there is an injury. So if there is an injury, people tend to assume that there was something dirty, which then increases the chances of suspension, which will be magnified by the very fact that there was an injury. See the literature on the statistical nature of res ipsa loquitor for more on this quirk of the human mind.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 23, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
As I said below, I lost a long reply and I can’t really recreate it, but I will say that the only outcry for a Steckel suspension was by fans and some of the more populist (and uninformed) sports columnists. I don’t think the NHL ever considered it suspensionable.
Well it’s obvious that the NHL didn’t consider it a suspension-worthy offense, as they didn’t even have a phone call. But the NHL does respond to public pressure over time, and now we’ve already seen discussions around, and steps in the direction of, a total head contact ban.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Ken Dryden said Steckel’s hit was dirty and should have been punished. Is he a populist and uniformed sports columnist? The outcry was a bit larger than just the Damien Cox crowd.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 23, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
But he went to a shitty school, so his opinion should be discounted.
(Figured I’d save F&B the trouble.)
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by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Your first three considerations would, theoretically, impact a player’s decision-making prior to a hit – Can I change my course of action? Have I been in trouble for this before? Are my actions dangerous?
The result of the actions have nothing to do with the player’s decision-making. Nothing. So what’s the point of punishing to them?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Of course they do! The player can choose not to do something because they know that there could be an injury involved.
Right, and that’s captured in the first part – “ample time to change his action.” Why would he need to consider his action for any reason other than that it might be dangerous and/or illegal?
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It’s just another factor.
(And shit — I didn’t realize that you couldn’t reply to two things simultaneously. My lengthy reply to F&B disappeared.)
(Yeah, that sucks – I’ve accidentally lost comments that way before.)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
So you punish risky behavior. You punish it equally whether or not that risk actually turned into an injury.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Christ… I’m consistently a second behind my smarter co-counsels.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
By saying “they know that there could be and injury” you’re acknowledging that it’s not the actual injury that matters, it’s the potential for one. So if there is or isn’t one doesn’t matter in his thinking.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I’m obviously not going to sway your opinion at all, but I just think that having injury after an illegal hit be a part of determining discipline isn’t this slippery slope that you all seem to worry so much about.
I don’t worry about it being a slippery slope at all. We could be standing at the top or the bottom of the slope and I don’t think it has any place.
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Debating against a bunch of lawyers… it isn’t even a fair fight.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, well let’s get a conversation going about the pharma industry and I’ll wipe you all up. WIPE YOU UP, SUCKAS!
Yeah well I’ve got Generally Accepted Accounting Principles locked up!
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I like to think of professional sports as something more like war. Stuff is going to happen within the parameters of what is perfectly reasonable in that setting, that would be totally unacceptable in normal society.
For that reason, I’d like to see a supplementary discipline tribunal, rather than a discipline czar…
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
(I still can’t believe Atlanta named its first hockey team the “Flames.”)
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you need to consider injury potential in protecting the players. The Shelly hit didn’t result in an injury (as far as I could tell) but there was clearly significant injury potential, which I think needs to be penalized as harshly as a similar boarding infraction that does result in an injury.
An injury indicates that there was (obviously) injury potential, and that should be considered. One also needs to look at how the play developed, and assess the extent to which the illegal act caused the injury, vs. some other factor. If I were a TBL fan, I’d have a hard time swallowing a big suspension on Hedman for a hit from behind, knowing that the inadvertent contact between Steckel and Crosby was likely a contributing factor in Crosby’s injury.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
In other words, punishing to the injury is foolish. Agreed (“injury potential” is just a component of “dangerous and illegal,” no?).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
But the injury is just one part of a the whole. It’s not the only thing (or the most significant thing) that should be considered.
In my opinion it should not be any part of the whole. At all.
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by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, just evidence of the “dangerous” component, not necessarily evidence of illegality.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
LeBrun: No question. Shanahan hit it out of the park in his first disciplinary rulings. But let’s also be honest, he got two nice gimmes with a pair of tough guys whom no one is going to miss too much in the lineup. The real test will be if Alex Ovechkin decides to ram Matt Cooke’s head through the glass with a hit from behind.
Pierre LeBrun’s exact question. My answer, Ovi should get 10 games. And by get 10 games I mean his next 10 games he should get a standing ovation.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Sep 23, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
just hand Ovie the Nobel Peace prize. He will have done the world a huge favor.
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I never understand that…if it was Campbell still I would understand pointing out he had easy situations to rule on. In Shanny’s case, we’re all expecting him to do a much better job, and first time out he does as good a job as he can with the situations that happened. He can’t make tougher calls when nothing more borderline has come up yet.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Sep 23, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, and both punishments were much tougher than a similar play would have gotten under Campbell. It’s not his fault it was the goons doing the dirty stuff. He put people on notice, he was clear, and he supported his decision. Awesome.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Exactly. I don’t get why LeBrun has to throw the “Yes, but…” caveat out there.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Sep 23, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And I loved Shanahan’s video on the Letourneau-Leblond hit. It looks like the NHL has grown up a bit.
He essentially laid out in 2 minutes what we at the Rink normally spend all day hashing out. He actually sounded like he knew what he was talking about, which is more than I can say about Campbell.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on Sep 23, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
His clarity is like a breathe of fresh air. I hope all of his rulings come with this type of video support.
by capsyoungguns on Sep 23, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that’s the plan. I’d like to see some video explanation of some “no-suspension” hits as well.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
What a sea change. I can’t wait either for a really good gray area ruling, especially where the suspected intent comes into play. I’m thinking of Green’s “elbow” first infraction that resulted in a suspension because Campbell suspected or assumed that it was retaliatory action. Or of Chara’s hit on Pacioretty.
by capsyoungguns on Sep 23, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Because I’m a glutton…
I think that a person’s intent should never be considered in punishment.
JP? F&B?
Sigh.
Obviously intent is important. Short version: Things the offending person can control are important, things they cannot control (i.e. injury and severity of injury) are not important.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 23, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously, but it’s not necessary for punishment. A bad hit is a bad hit. If it’s unintentional, stupid, or reckless, it has to be punished. In cases when it’s clear that there was evil intent, then punish harder.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Stupid and reckless, to me, is the same as intentional. Unintentional (such as the case with Steckel) shouldn’t be penalized at all.
We are talking different levels of intent. Shelley intended to hit Boyce, so he needs to be suspended. But he might not have intended to knock Boyce out for the season. If you find a case where a guy shows evil intent to do serious bodily harm, as opposed to just intent to throw a hit that is illegal (which may not include the malicious intent), then you drop the hammer. Cooke and his flying elbows would be the obvious example. Those aren’t just “finishing a check” that shouldn’t be finished. Elbows pointed at the head and a leap toward a player are signs, to me, of malicious intent, and should be punished more harshly.
Steckel didn’t even have intent to throw a hit, so that’s why he shouldn’t be punished.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Who determines intent? It’d be nice if there was a former player that everyone seems to respect, who’s experienced enough that he’s not going to be fooled too often, and who can justify his decisions clearly and openly in public. I’d like to have a guy like that judging intent.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, sometimes the players help out and talk about it for two weeks leading up to the game…
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Can’t you see how that will be trouble? “He intended to injure the player with that dangerous hit.” “Uh, no I didn’t. I made a stupid play, but I didn’t mean to do it.” “Yes you did, because I played 1,000 games in the NHL and I’ve tried to injure guys the same way.”
Hockey players lie. Some are better at it than others. Sometimes they lie better than at other times. I’d rather have Shanahan assessing those lies than most folks.
In other words, when that player has flown to New York for the day while his team went to Carolina without him, and he’s sitting nervous in an NHL offices waiting room, and then Shanahan asks him in and says “what the hell was that?” — yeah, I think there’s some value in what Shanahan is going to see next in the player’s countenance. I think a lot of guys are going to find it hard to give him a bald-faced line without cracking a little bit.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just enjoying the fact that it appears that a competent adult is making these decisions, as opposed to Colie who gives every indication of having a room-temp IQ.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
by fat_daddyo on Sep 23, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
DGB might have to find another Fool.
....when the truth is if they knew anything about the game, they'd be in it.
--GMGM
by redlineblue on Sep 23, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Question about "Defenseless position"
That’s new this year, right?
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on Sep 23, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
The transparency in explaining his rationale is excellent. Non-calls will be interesting too, if they choose to have videos for some of those.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Love the Orlov interview. Kid definitely seems to get it and have a level head on his shoulders.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Sep 23, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
OT: Back to the Modano stuff, minus the typo or maybe including the typo, this is amusing:
Luko37 Brad Lukowich
@9modano congrats on the new deal, but your late for practice, cha ching
Yup. He’s younger than one would think ’76)
2 seasons ago while under contract with Vancouver when he was sent to the AHL they worked it out so he could be assigned to Texas/AHL rather than Maintoba (Vancouver’s affiliate.) Then he returned to the Stars organization last season playing mostly for the AHL team but a handful of games for Dallas. Last season and this season, he’s been on 2-way deals, but not the typical structure – higher NHL portion than most.
No matter how Boudreau assembles his lines this season, it’s one of the things to like about the team this season: You’d be confident with any of the two pivots starting on the top line the first game.
It seems to me that nobody would be confident with Mackan at the top C spot, unless they expect a significant breakout year from Mackan. A 40 point 1C is just not going to cut it. So the only reason you’d be confident is that you know AO will also be on that line, making the C irrelevant. But I don’t think that’s the same as saying “you’d be confident with any of the two pivots starting on the top line the first game.”
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Excellent point. I think MarJo’s performance will be the most important determining factor of the make-up of lines 1 & 2 than the discussions about Knuble and Brouwer. At this point, I am fine with MarJo holding down #1 IF – and only IF – he can produce. I like his skills and think that he can do it…if not this year, then perhaps in a year or two from now. So, since this is preseason and since BB knows what Backis can do, why not experiment? I think it makes a lot of sense especially if Backis can kick up Semin’s game. The only thing I find surprising is that some people find it surprising that Brouwer could be on the first line. Frankly, as with MarJo, I say let’s try it.
I’m for trying it, but it seems clear that if Mackan works at 1C then it’s either because AO is carrying him or Mackan takes a huge step forward (or both). Given that Neil doesn’t expect a huge step forward from Mackan, it just struck me as an odd line.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Right — I mean, you can put any moderately talented center on Ovechkin’s line and their raw numbers are going to go up.
I do think there is an interesting debate to be had regarding whether Mackan’s style is better suited for AO or AS (and then another layer, is it better suited than Baxter’s style is?).
Obviously, this is all speculation.
And it’s a question of balance. I suspect everyone is better suited to play with AO than AS. But maybe Backstrom’s differential between getting the most out of AO and AS is smaller than Johansson’s, so you’ll get more total offense with Nicky paired with AS(since Nicky has some idea what to do with AS) and leaving Mackan with AO, where any fool could find success.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
… or Bad Sasha drags the Caps’ best pivot down with him.
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I can see some logic in at least giving it a shot. AS and AO can both score, but they have totally different styles. AO’s much more physical, and is more of a creator, whereas AS is more of a finisher. NB is a great setup man, which might be more suited to AS’s skillset than AO’s.
MJ is smaller and less physical than NB, which makes pairing him with AS a bit less attractive. He also seems more comfortable shooting the puck, which I thought was one of NB’s weaknesses playing with AO. NB looked pass too often, which isn’t effective when the intended shooter has a defenseman draped all over him.
I could see this driving teams nuts in the playoffs. It would wear down the opponent’s Top 4 D, and 28-19-XX would figure to be defensively strong enough to keep even a good F line in check.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t it a question of whether (AO + NB) + (AS + MJ) is better than (AO + MJ) + (AS + NB)?
I would say go with the former.
My take is that the regular season means dick. We know what the former is like. Why not try the latter and see what happens?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, in its simplest terms I think that’s what it comes down to. Maximize output.
I don’t think Mackan is ready for a 1C spot, and I never really thought he had shown the skill set to be a 1C on his own, but I do think his north/south game might mesh very well with AO. If it means that a) AO carries the puck in the neutral zone less often and/or b) AO has more support once he gets to the offensive zone, then I think it’s worth a look.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
You also have to consider zone starts. Do you want AO + MJ to start in the offensive zone a lot if MJ can’t improve his FO%? You’re losing your edge more.
Ooh, the converse makes me salivate. Laich-Backstrom-Semin could be an extremely strong line defensively. You put them in when you’re in your own zone, and odds are the next faceoff will be in the other zone. If it’s not at center ice after a goal…
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I guess you’d have to look at how much the raw difference is between Mackan and Baxter in terms of OZ FO. My guess is that in raw terms you aren’t losing as much as you’d think, but it’s definitely a consideration.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
NHL.com doesn’t breakout zone faceoffs, but overall, Backstrom was at 52.5% and Johansson was 40.5%. That’s pretty significant. (It was even worse on the road, where Johansson was at 37.9%.)
Right, but if the difference in OZ starts is even just 3 per game, then how much raw impact is there really? And 3 per game is what you see for the most aggressively matched guys, like P. Kane. BB is unlikely to match like that, so really it’s probably 2 per game, max.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Related question: Is there anywhere that breaks out raw zone starts in all areas of the ice? behindthenet has the finishes, and does breakout the faceoffs by zone. The OZone % of course drops the neutral zone starts. I suppose you can a get a pretty good idea of the starts for centers based on the faceoffs.
No, it actually goes deeper than that.
In a AS/NB combo, you have a line that I would bet money has the highest expected shooting percentage on the team, be it through excellent chances or sheer accuracy. That suggests that you want them in the offensive zone as much as humanly possible, in order to maximize their ability to drive shooting percentage, and you want them out there against weak defenders, who are less able to limit the volume of chances.
By extension, that means that AO and Mackan have to start in their own zone more often and against tougher defenders. Is that line capable of holding their head above water with that competition and zone start? Probably so, if Mackan matured as much as it looks like he did, but maybe not. AO’s defensive possession skills aren’t great and a lot of his ability to drive possession so strongly is how well he gets through the neutral zone. If MarJo can’t get the puck back for him, one of his biggest advantages is potentially neutralized.
On the other hand, if Semin and Backstrom are paired together, you’re seeing two guys with tremendous possession numbers together, one of whom plays against some of the hardest competition on the team already. That’s a hell of a power versus power combination if you feed them tough zone starts and 1st/2nd lines; there aren’t many combinations I’d expect them to lose the possession battle to, while chipping in significant offense, besides. That means you’d limit shots from the other team’s best and most accurate players, but it’s a two-way street; those players will also limit shots from the Caps’ most dangerous duo.
This scenario means that AO and MarJo get weaker competition than they would otherwise see and should be able to capitalize on that, but can MarJo work enough magic in the offensive zone to get AO the puck in scoring positions? Maybe, maybe not.
Optimizing the expected goals out of that analysis also depends on how and how often the putative third and fourth lines are used. Who’s on them? What’s their usage? How much usage do they get at ES? There are a lot of variables to plug in there, and all the boundary conditions have to be tested before you can come out with a definitive answer.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 23, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
Damn. I feel like you’ve peeled away a layer of an onion for me. Really valuable analysis that helps me understand the pairings and anticipated effects of the zone starts.
by capsyoungguns on Sep 23, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you. That’s the best compliment you could give to that post.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 23, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re welcome. First words out of my mouth were: “hot damn but that was good.”
by capsyoungguns on Sep 23, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Mackan’s speed might aid him alongside Ovie…whereas Semin and Backstrom play a little bit more deliberately.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Sep 23, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Mackan’s being set up with expectations that he’s very unlikely to match. In a few months, you’re going to be hearing what a bum he is from the I-hate-Jeff-Schultz-and-puppies crowd
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 23, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Nah. They’ll just pine for Kuzya and remind people that they always thought he had no more than 3C potential…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
All good points but, again, I think we should wait and see how ‘total’ line points go. In theory, if MarJo brings Ovi down and Backis brings AS up, then we have a zero sum game. Obviously, BB’s and GMGM’s hope is that MarJo’s bringing Ovi down will be less than what Nicky can do to boost Semin’s numbers. It is worth a try. I just hope, however, that if the experiment does fail it doesn’t destroy MarJo. The reference to Schultz is instructive when one realizes all the unfair criticism he received at such an early age.
I’m still shocked hours after I read it that the Buffalo paper has an entire article on Joe Finley’s invite to training camp….
and in the ex-Caps/ex-prospects world…
not as surprising to see the words being used on Pinizzotto, but still, he’s getting a lot of attention in the Vancouver papers
Steckel as third-line center. I’ve seen this movie before.
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Don’t let the kids see it… they’ll have nightmares.
I am a hockey fan first, and a Caps fan second.
by iwearstripes on Sep 23, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
kind of glaring error: Finley wasn’t the Caps first pick that season, even though he was a first round pick. detail, shmetails.
Pledge Drive 2011-2012: CARSON KOLZIG FOUNDATION! Supporting autism awareness and treatment.
I prefer their reality to yours. /Pokuloked
We're Hüsker Dü and we're on MTV. Who are you, and what are you on?
by bilspacecadet on Sep 23, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That whole draft was garbage after Staal. Raask was in there somewhere after, but, ‘05 wasn’t a banner year for depth of the draft.
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
OT: Aportzline Aaron Portzline
“#CBJ D Ted Ruth out 2 to 4 wks with a sprained right knee, suffered in fight Wednesday vs Washington #Caps.”
I missed the game entirely. Who did Ruth fight with?
Pledge Drive 2011-2012: CARSON KOLZIG FOUNDATION! Supporting autism awareness and treatment.
Blackhawks lineup per the Chicago Sun
Forwards: Dave Bolland, Andrew Brunette, Rob Flick, Jimmy Hayes, Marcus Kruger, Jamal Mayers, Rostislav Olesz, Brandon Saad, Brandon Segal, Ben Smith, Viktor Stalberg, Jonathan Toews
Defensemen: Brian Fahey, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith, Steve Montador, Dylan Olsen, Brent Seabrook
Goalies: Corey Crawford (Expected to play full game), Alec Richards
Galiev should be suiting up tonight against the Foreurs and his training camp teammate Samuel Henley.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Baie-Comeau was doing handstands they were so happy to get Carrier back.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Good for him!
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Lambert was killing Panaccio yesterday on Twitter for Panaccio defending the Shelley hit (or something… I wasn’t paying close attention).
The lot that covers the Flyers is just fucking awful.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Somewhere in there has to be a crack we can make about the refugees who cover the Caps now.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
I think this is the line that set him off:
Now, Shelley is a repeat offender, even though he doesn’t have the same "dirty" rep as a guy like, say, Matt Cooke.
Well, yeah, no one does. But to imply that a guy who’s been suspended four times prior (and twice last year) doesn’t have a rep as a dirty player is… a stretch.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
“[D]oesn’t have the same ‘dirty’ rep as a guy like, say, Matt Cooke” is like saying “Kim Kardashian doesn’t have the same ‘slutty’ rep as a gal like, say, Paris Hilton.” Maybe factually true, but not something of which to be necessarily proud.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s really hurdling those high bars, those claims.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Sep 23, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, because you aren’t as dirty as the most notoriously dirty player currently in the league… well that would be a great bar to have set.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah. And what’s dirty about this hit? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGfiSjuZU5Q
Other than everything, I mean.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Shelley is, at most, the third most culpable factor in that hit. McQuaid never should have pulled up like that. You don’t slam on the breaks in moving traffic! And also, touch icing is more responsible than Shelley. Without touch icing Shelley would have never been in that vulnerable position. Poor guy.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
C’mon, man. Do you enjoy trolling F&B so much that you can’t even detect his dripping sarcasm any more?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Sep 23, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think where Shelley is culpable is in that he’s such a good, fast skater that he was able to keep up with McQuaid. A more lead-footed forward never would’ve been in that position.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I blame the guys who assembled the boards where they did. Far too close to where McQuaid was standing.
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
by dcsportsfan1 on Sep 23, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I know. Big tough kids drafted in the seventh round over a 17-year-old Czech who played against men in their top pro league? Uh, no.
To me, I draft small talented kids in the 7th round and hope they mature.
It’ll be interesting to see where he goes next year. This is great PR for Hyka.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Good lord—what was the upside for the Flyers in even bringing him to camp and playing him in games if they couldn’t sign him?
I guess the answer is, none, because they botched the rules interpretation, but I’m curious—are draft-eligible players invited to training camps often?
We're Hüsker Dü and we're on MTV. Who are you, and what are you on?
by bilspacecadet on Sep 23, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume some people saw the twitter RTs yesterday when Caps draft pick (no longer in organization) Andrew Glass’ younger brother was missing. Anyway, the good news is the kid (Matt Glass) was found. The rest of the story is still hazy, but parents are noting a concussion (from football not hockey) and possible continuing effects…scary stuff if it is what ends up being id’d as the cause…
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/09/23/concussion-effects-linked-to-wrentham-teen’s-disappearance/
Caps Audio Stream
Let’s say I want to listen to the Caps streaming audio of the actual game tonight — as opposed to the Caps Rock radio station (wtf?) thing that’s on their website — any advice on how to do that?
Thanks!
Yeah – go where you are and click “live feed.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world




































