The Southeast Division's Top Ten Wings
by J.P. on Sep 20, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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Yesterday we counted down the Southeast Division's top centers. Today we'll rank the fellas who flank 'em - the Division's top ten wingers. Let's dive right in...
Honorable mention: Troy Brouwer, Tomas Fleischmann, Jussi Jokinen, Mike Knuble, Teddy Purcell, Scottie Upshall, Kris Versteeg, Joel Ward, Blake Wheeler
10. Tuomo Ruutu (Carolina Hurricanes)
Ruutu set career highs in assists and points in 2010-11 and played in all 82 games for the first time since his rookie year of 2003-04. He also finished second in the League in hits, but you didn't need that dubiously kept stat to tell you he's a pain to play against, did you? His versatility (he played plenty of center last season) adds to his value.
9. Brooks Laich (Washington Capitals)
Speaking of versatility, the Caps' Mr. Everything got a new six-year, $27-million deal this past summer because he can play down the middle or on the wing in a scoring or checking role and log big minutes on both special teams (only Jordan Staal and Ryan Kesler got more power-play and penalty kill time than Laich among NHL forwards in 2010-11). Laich's offensive production dipped last season and may not rebound much depending on his role in 2011-12. But if he continues to do everything the team asks of him - and do it well - no one in Washington will care.
8. Steve Downie (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Yes, that Steve Downie, who may very well be the League's premiere agitator - only one other player in the League has averaged more than half a point per game and 150 penalty minutes in either of the last two seasons (Scott Hartnell in 2009-10), something Downie's done twice. But here's the kicker - at even strength, he drew more penalties than he took last year. Oh, and 14 points in 17 playoff games didn't hurt his cause, either.
7. David Booth (Florida Panthers)
After playing just 28 games in 2009-10 due primarily to post-concussion symptoms, Booth played all 82 in 2010-11, which is quite an achievement in and of itself. But he also led the Panthers in goals (hey, someone had to) and shots on goal (where he finished 12th in the League), but that plus/minus... yikes.
6. Evander Kane (Winnipeg Jets)
Do this, make the list for life. That's just a rule. But beside that, Kane improved his production in his second season in the League and led the Thrashers in hits, all at the age of 19. Kane is good and only getting better.
5. Andrew Ladd (Winnipeg Jets)
After a trio of seasons with goal totals in the teens, Ladd had his breakthrough year thanks in part to the League's 8th-highest shooting percentage (among players who registered as many shots as he did). His 29 goals and 59 points led the Thrash and no forward who was there all last season played more on either the penalty kill or the power play.
4. Jeff Skinner (Carolina Hurricanes)
Skinner made the leap directly from the OHL to the NHL and met with success instantly, topping 30 goals, being named to the All-Star team (coincidentally enough in his home arena... ahem) and picking up the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year all before his 19th birthday (well, technically he was awarded the Calder after his 19th birthday, but that's neither here nor there). Theoretically, he can play some center... but why fix what isn't broken?
3. Alexander Semin (Washington Capitals)
Ah, Sasha. On the one hand, there's the puck possession dynamo with other-worldly skill who has led the Caps in goals since early February, 2010. On the other hand, there's the injury-, mistake- and disappearance-prone version who couldn't make this list if we tripled the size. Contrary to popular belief, however, the former Semin is around more often than the latter, and that's why he is where he is here (hey, it's September, not April).
2. Martin St. Louis (Tampa Bay Lightning)
If there's a player who is more begrudgingly adored by opposing fans than Martin St. Louis, there shouldn't be - at his age and at his size to still be playing at the level at which he's playing is simply amazing, and he's always done it the right way. St. Louis - who hasn't missed a single game in the past five seasons, and only two since 2001-02 - set a career-high in assists last year and finished third in voting for the Hart Trophy as League MVP.
1. Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
He's still the best, and if you think otherwise, you're wrong.
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I don’t think there’s really any question the Caps have the best Winger
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 20, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
Bleacherreport says Hank Z is teh best!
by S h a g g y on Sep 20, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I Disagree...
…well not with the top 5…they’re the right players in the right order: Ovi, MSL, Sasha, Hockey-Bieber and Ladd.
I would put Booth ahead of Kane for 6/7 but hey, I’ll take either of them on my team. Terrific players.
Which brings us to Mr. Fabric Softener… Yes, he has turned into decent hockey player from being just another goon, but he has the advantage of being the Bolts’ answer to Alex Burrows (who is the luckiest player in hockey being the third Sedin Twin…) playing as the third wheel for Stamkos and Marty. I don’t think he is better than Brooks, I don’t think he’s better than Ruutu, or Knuble, or Flash (if Flash is healthy.. a big if!), and I bet that if Joel Ward or Troy Brouwer were the third player on a line with Marty and Stamkos, they’d outproduce Downie too….
Downie has gotten better since he’s entered the league, no doubt, but a lot of his production is a product of his environment, much like Chris Clark and Dainus Zubrus when they were Ovi’s linemates…
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
I actually had Booth ahead of Kane, but F&B convinced me to flip ’em.
As for Downie, I think you’re giving him too little credit. He played with Stamkos and St. Loo a lot during the regular season, but less than 10% of the time during the playoffs (where he was superb). He might be a little high on this list, but not by too much.
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I know he has worked on his game and has gotten better. If he keeps his game up at the same level and plays a lot less with Marty and Stamkos, then I’ll agree with you, but if I was a GM, I wouldn’t trade Brooks Laich straight up for him, or Ward, or Flash (again, with the health caveat). Knuble I’d think about because in 3-4 years, Downie might still be in the NHL…Knuble almost certainly won’t…
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 20, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
As to how a GM might value Downie, he currently makes $1,850,000. Is Laich or Flash 2.5 times as valuable?
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Considering Brooks plays PK, is better defensively and offensively, and mid season was being talked about for Selke I’d say he’s close.
Flash, no.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
As for F&B – Right now Booth is a tiny bit ahead of Kane…. by this time next year, I fully expect Kane to even be ahead of Ladd…
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 20, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I based my rankings a bit more on where I expect the guys to be this year. Right now it’s a pretty close call, but I really think Kane is a very good player. I’ve liked Booth a lot for a long time but I’m not sure he’ll get back to that pre-concussion level.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Downie has a ton of talent. I hate the guy, but he can play.
He was better able to keep his assholishness in check this season (not completely, though), and maybe as he matures more, he’ll be able to become even better.
I don’t know if I would want him on my team, but I certainly would want his talent on my team.
I thought the question was to take salary into the equation. Would I trade Brooks for Downie if they had the same salary? No. Considering the amount and length of Brooks’ contract, I would make the trade.
by Wilderthing on Sep 20, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Downie is a 1.9 now, due for a raise after this season. Even IF we’re talking salary, the implosion that would happen, for many reasons, on this blog if Laich were traded straight up for Downie would be catastrophic. Laich’s versatility for a salary of 6.5 then 4mil for 2 years then 4.5 works for me. Switch Laich and Downie, and I’ll buy what this list is selling
Like I said above, Downie might be a little high on this list, but not by too much. If flipping 8 and 9 on a top-ten is the only major complaint, I’d say it’s a decent list.
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“Catastrophic?” I don’t think so. We added Brouwer and Ward to the wings, other big bodies who, despite not having Laich’s versatility, add grit and power. MarJo (we assume) will continue to add skill to center position with Eakin and Slogren moving up, thereby making Brook’s center contribution expendable as well. That is why, to me, it comes down to that contract. It is out of proportion to his contribution. I say we play Downie for a year or two and then let him go or trade him.
by Wilderthing on Sep 20, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we could use some more snarl. It’s not nearly as clear to me as you that Laich is a better fit.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
It’s not nearly as clear to me as you that Laich is a better fit.
Better fit in the locker room? the 3rd line center? 2nd line wing? shirtless in the showers?
Kidding aside, I tend to look at these lists from purely a, “would I take on my team any of the players ahead of player X.” In this instance, I feel I would take Laich over Downie.
And “would I take Downie over Laich” a big part of me says “Downie.” He’s a douche, Laich is a great guy, but we need sandpaper more than folksy quotes at this point. Who on the team do other players actually hate to play against? Yeah, Downie would fit that bill.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I’m not hanging my opinion on how big of a douchebag (giant) Downie is. Downie plays a hard nosed game, and his GP shows that. I like the fact that Downie is a good hybrid of acceptable offensive touch and 4th line grit. But, cheesy quotes and all, I’d rather have Laich’s dependability, versatility, ability to play on a top caliber PP and offensive touch, and get a true grit/grinder guy to play that role.
I think Laich’s skillset is a bit more generic than Downie’s, personally.
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I could see that. I think they are both generic hybrid type players. They can do several things well, but nothing exceptional. Downie stands out because of his PIMS, which, for me, isn’t a stat that I attribute as a great positive.
What I do see though, is all the different situations that Laich can perform in. Maybe I haven’t watched Downie enough to REALLY have a valid opinion, but it seems like without applying a lot of positive value for PIMS, Laich has the edge for me
Downie stands out because of his PIMS, which, for me, isn’t a stat that I attribute as a great positive
Agreed. It’s not. But what is is what I mentioned in the blurb:
But here’s the kicker – at even strength, he drew more penalties than he took last year.Laich, on the other hand, took more than he drew last year. Downie isn’t a good agitator because he takes a lot of bad penalties, he’s a good agitator because he gets his opponents to take a lot of bad penalties. Hell, he almost took the Caps’ best player off the ice for (at least) five minutes… dude is good at what he does.
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He is good at what he does. And I’m not trying to get him off the list, because he definitely belongs. But I feel like an almost gimmicky type of thing like that, where he goads people into taking dumb penalties, is something that starts to cool off after your reputation gets out like that.
For instance, I feel like Sean Avery isn’t as successful as he once was in goading people into taking dumb penalties. I can think of multiple occasions when the caps played him and Erskine was just laughing at him in a situation where he probably would have, or probably used to, retaliate. Maybe this is taken into account in Nate’s list down below, where Downie drops to 9th.
Avery drew more penalties than he took last year.
Brooks Laich did not.
It’s an underrated and, frankly, under-discussed skill, but a skill nonetheless.
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Avery drew more penalties than he took last year.
By 1, but I get your point. Mine was simply that it cools off, which i’m having trouble finding data to prove it, but i’d be willing to bet that avery, in years past, has probably had way more than ONE more penalty drawn than taken.
Definitely true that Avery’s drawn-to-taken ratio was better in years past (not the past two, though).
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I’m also addicted to that behindthenet.ca site right now.
Hot damn! look at Marjo’s taken/drawn ratio ( 5 taken, 18 drawn)
Taylor Hall and Jeff Skinner are 3 and 1 in 5v5 penalties drawn, for what it’s worth. I do think there is some credence to the idea that you “cool off.”
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by red army line on Sep 20, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s a significant difference between the way those skill guys draw penalties and how guys like Downie and Avery do (or did, in Avery’s case). It’s not really apples-to-apples, though I’d be interested in seeing some numbers on whether or not it’s a repeatable skill – I’d expect that for the agitators it is, and for the skill guys it is to a much lesser extent.
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I definitely would take Brooks over Downie straight up if salary weren’t a consideration. I’m hoping the Caps play Brouwer or Ward in the top 6 and put the other with Laich and whatever winger seems to fit best in a checking line. I heard Bruce mention that a Ward-Laich-Knuble checking line would probably be excellent. I tend to think they’d have a fair shot to shut down any line. Perhaps even go Ovie-Marjo-Brouwer, Chimera-Backstrom-Semin, Ward-Laich-Knuble, Hendricks-Halpern-Beagle. My point being that, I think a shut-down line with Laich centering could be phenomenal. It could cycle, provide offense, and stonewall the opposition. So I think his value depends how he is used. As far as taking the salary into consideration, and the fact that Downie is signed for a shorter term, thus adding flexibility to an organization that would seem have a surplusof players that can do what Laich does, I might make the trade. I don’t think GMGM would, but I might. The one caveat would be that, by all accounts Laich is a tremendous lockerroom presence and teammate. I don’t know Downie’s rep with his own team, and they probably wouldn’t speak their minds if they were asked.
I don't know, maybe it was the roses...
By what accounts? The accounts that actual team voting has never put a letter on his sweater?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Johansson really has a habit of getting under guys’ skins. I wonder if part of it is just that he doesn’t look like he’s working hard — it looks like hockey comes so easy to him.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Sep 20, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Avery has also reeled back his antics a lot under Torts, and as a result has also become a less effective player.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 20, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Torts scratched him some didn’t he?
I had always had a healthy respect for Avery, and always said, " I like him because beneath the antics, he’s actually a decent player." Something, that I hadn’t really thought about as actually false until now.
You continue to separate “the antics” from “decent player.” To me, the antics (to an extent) are what make him a decent player.
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I don’t think i’m meaning to.
I think I’m saying, or what I’m trying to say, is that the antics are whats making Downie a good player now, but like Avery – those antics start to become less effective. I also understand that the future holds no bearing on this list, so I’m basically just wrong for this lists true purpose.
___
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by J.P. on Sep 20, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Related: Dustin Brown and Patrick Kaleta are more valuable than people think they are.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 20, 2011 3:58 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Fuck Kaleta
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 20, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Amen, but dude is good at what he does.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 20, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I would. I would much rather have Downie, because that would give the Caps more than 2.6 million to get another center, and while Downie is a pain in the ass, I’d love him if he were on our team. He’s an agitator and a dick, but you won’t find many harder workers. Laich may or may not even deserve to be on the list since he’s slated in for 3C, unless things have flipped like crazy since I checked.
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by Ridley me this on Sep 20, 2011 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
List looks right to me.
One small qualm on honorable mention list – How does Blake Wheeler get a nod and Scottie Upshall doesn’t?
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Good call – I’ll add him (since I have damn-near every other top-nine F in the Division on there).
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For the 2011-12 season I’d rank them:
Alex Ovechkin
Jeff Skinner
Martin St Louis
Alexander Semin
Evander Kane
Brooks Laich
Andrew Ladd
Tuomo Ruutu
Steve Downie
David Booth
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Skinner second? How do you figure he’s better than MSL? (On the other re-ordering I can imagine the arguments to be made.)
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I think Skinner scores more points at both 5v5 and on the PP this year than MSL. Plus, I think Skinner’s chance at 30+ goals is pretty reasonable and MSL’s production could just drop off at age 35.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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So Skinner makes up 50% of his scoring total from last year in one season? That doesn’t jive with any of your takes on young players so far. Since 2002-03, MSL has only once scored fewer than Skinner had last season. He’s still going strong, and he’ll still be playing with Stamkos.
It’s more debatable whether MSL belongs at Number 1 than it is whether Skinner belongs at Number 2 (although given the logo on his jersey, maybe Number 2 is fitting).
Obviously, this is all speculation.
St. Loo’s gonna drop off a cliff all of the sudden after two-straight 94+ point seasons? Not sure I see that happening.
More to the point, though, I don’t see how Skinner can be considered anywhere near as well-rounded a hockey player, so in order to be “better,” IMO, he’d have to vastly exceed MSL’s production. I just don’t see it happening.
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And, fwiw, Skinner had 18 PP points last year. St. Louis had 41… and still has Stamkos. That seems like a big differential to make up even if Bieber, err, Skinner gets better and Marty starts to slow down.
(Sorry, btw… I’m just a MSL fanboy at heart.)
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Skinner had 18 PP points last year. St. Louis had 41
Bah. I meant Skinner would edge him in PP goals, not points.
FWIW, Puck Prospectus’ VUKOTA has Skinner slightly edging MSL as well, 15 to 13 in GVT.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Puck Prospectus’ VUKOTA has Skinner slightly edging MSL as well, 15 to 13 in GVT
Then that’s an indictment of VUKOTA, IMO. Skinner > St. Louis doesn’t pass the sniff test to me (again, an admitted MSL fanboy).
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Naming after Mick Vukota was their first mis-step.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 20, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Players who are productive after age 35 do tend to hold their production level, however, if I am making an educated guess into the future, I bet on the younger player.
Would I be surprised if MSL > Skinner in 2011-12? No. Do I think it will be close? yes. Do I think Skinner’s upside is > MSL’s? Yes.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Upside at this point is a red herring. Obviously the guy at age 35 has less upside, but he’s elite. The point is who has 90 point potential next year? It ain’t Skinner.
I’d say Skinner’s goal total from next year is… wait for it… ripe for a fall.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 20, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
but he’s elite
No doubt MSL is elite. I just would put Skinner as more eliter in 2011-12.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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I don’t think Skinner will be elite next year, not within any meaningful range of the term “elite.”
You’re not scared off by his shooting ? Seems like you should be one of the first to see that Sh number and suspect it’ll come back to earth some. Unless you think he’s gonna be a Kovalchuk type shooter.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
You’re not scared off by his shooting ? Seems like you should be one of the first to see that Sh number and suspect it’ll come back to earth some.
I am not, yet. I am also not scared off by Perry’s 17% Sh% and think he could easily put up 40G or more with an outside chance at another 50G season.
I am looking at Sh% a little differently, and there are some players I have more in-depth info on than others.
Overall though you are right: I would suspect an unusually high Sh% to regress.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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I think 40 is a stretch for Perry. His previous high was 32 goals, and he hit career highs in both SOG and SH% last year. If he regresses to his average SH% of 12.6% he has to take almost 30 more shots than his previous career high in order to hit 40 goals.
I thought goal scoring was supposed to drop off after the age of 25. Well you are predicting a 26 year old who has hovered around 30 goals (usually ending up below it) up to this point in his career to now easily hit 40 goals after a career year in which he shattered his previous highs in almost every category. Is regression to the mean only for the Capitals?
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 20, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
If he regresses to his average SH% of 12.6% he has to take almost 30 more shots than his previous career high in order to hit 40 goals.
I just submitted an ESPN post that clarifies why I don’t think he will regress as much as your average player would.
I thought goal scoring was supposed to drop off after the age of 25.
a player will peak around age 24-26, but they don’t just drop off the face of the earth.
Is regression to the mean only for the Capitals?
Of course not. I think I talk most about the Capitals in this blog for obv reasons, but I have picked a good number of other players to regress as well.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I should also note that I am not thinking Skinner will have 20 points more than MSL, just that he will be marginally better. Just enough for me to say he is behind Ovi as best wing but not enough for me to mortgage my camera equip.
I def have no problem taking him late in the first/early second round in a fantasy draft like the one I am in with SB Nation.
If it was a head to head league or a smaller league I may think differently.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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And his ADORBS/60 and QualHair are strong. So there’s that.
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by J.P. on Sep 20, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When you and Nicci evaluate players the same, it makes me uncomfortable.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
MSL’s unquestionably the better defensive player, but I was surprised that he only averaged 27 seconds per game on the PK last year.
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So you aren’t considering non-fantasy things, like PK, etc.?
Everything, all around, Skinner just barely edges MSL in 2011-12.
Book it.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
We need an actual book in which to book things. But not an actual actual book, more like a FanPost or Google doc. Where’s Natty?
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We need an actual book in which to book things.
Wait, I have to go on record with these things??
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
MSL 4eva!
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Hey, no need to tell the world what my private tat says…
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Comments do though.
Of course, I just screenshotted the whole thing.
Also, as long as it’s a short term question, I take MSL without much thought.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 20, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Skinner getting to 90 points is a Stamkos-style improvement; I don’t think I buy that he’s the same caliber of player. Maybe Skinner does it, but I’d be against his 1025 PDO staying where it is or getting better. And 10.97 on-ice shooting percentage is Crosby territory if he can sustain it – hey look at that, another player that I’m not buying Skinner will match. I don’t think he’ll maintain 130% of his next closest teammate’s ES goal scoring.
Skinner looks like a very good player qualitatively (especially for an 18 year old and especially his skating), but all the BtN stuff looks like he’s been real lucky so far in the league. I don’t think MSL is going to come back far enough for Skinner’s likely improvement to catch him. It could happen based on luck differential, or Skinner could just explode up the development curve, but I doubt it happens this year.
Gimme MSL. And Semin, while you’re at it.
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by Knee high to a duck on Sep 20, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Skinner won’t score more than Stamkos. Martin St. Louis’ points are directly affected by how many points Stamkos gets.
By the transitive property, MSL > Skinner in points.
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Funny thing is, Stamkos shouldn’t really affect how good a player MSL is, just how much he puts up in terms of counting stats…
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by red army line on Sep 20, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
In the SB Nation draft I took Skinner in first round (last, 21st overall) and then Rinne with first pick in second round.
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Worth noting that that League has a salary cap component. I think St. Loo at $5.625m vs. Skinner at $1.4m is a reasonable debate as to who provides more overall value. But without salary considerations, I just can’t see Skinner as the better player.
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Truth, but I have Skinner fairly high on my board. Higher than MSL for sure.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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FWIIW, I’ve got…
St. Loo: 23G, 58A (conservatively)
Skinner: 32G, 37A (optimistically)
But that’s fantasy hockey.
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FWIW, MSL went in the first round (19th) in the SB Nation draft.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
MSL gives you more firepower and better overall TOI stats, but Skinner brings a ton of value in that contract. I had Skinner ranked in my top 10, ahead of MSL IIRC.
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Are these rankings all in terms of value, or pure player awesomeness (and/or lack thereof)?
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by red army line on Sep 20, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I started out with the generated rankings for the stat categories for the league, which are listed below. I then took into account such things as salary, likelihood of increase/decrease in stats due to injuries/shooting percentages, changes in teams/teammates, etc. Mine was done hastily in a couple of hours the day of the draft. I’m guessing Neil did a more thorough job.
Skaters A
Skaters Blk
Skaters G
Skaters SOG
Skaters TOI-ES
Skaters TOI-PP
Skaters TOI-SH
Goal GA
Goal SHO
Goal SV
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Caps/Preds
Does anyone know if we’ll be able to stream it?
Audio only, via the Caps site.
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No love for Ryan Malone? He didn’t have a great season last year, but he’s still a valuable asset, especially in front of the net.
by (I Wanna) Be Laich Mike on Sep 20, 2011 2:19 PM EDT reply actions
Meh. Malone doesn’t do much for me.
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He was plenty effective against the Caps: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7lj9OTnl2U
by (I Wanna) Be Laich Mike on Sep 20, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny that the two biggest debates are over Downie (whom everyone loves to hate) and St. Louis (whom everyone hates to love). Both Bolts and both beneficiaries of the awesomeness of Stamkos.
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MSL’s sustainability at this age is certainly helped by Stamkos, but he was pretty darn good well before Stamkos showed up.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 20, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course. Stamkos is just Viagara – helps the old guy keep performing like he’s a young guy.
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But if MSL keeps this up for 4 or more seasons, he’ll need to see a doctor.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Sep 20, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It’s a bit… incongruous to take salary into consideration when discussing Laich and Downie, but to deny it when discussing St. Louis and Skinner. Was salary a consideration when making the list? IMHO, if salary is not a consideration, then my only quibble with the list is that Laich and Downie should be switched. If it is, then not only does the question become "Is Laich worth $2.6M more than Downie, and is St. Louis worth $4.2M more than Skinner, but is Ovechkin worth $3.5M(?) more than St. Louis, or $7.6M more than Skinner?
I don't know, maybe it was the roses...
I didn’t personally consider salary, but MSL scoring 90 points for 5.6 is a pretty nice bargain when every 20 goal scorer is getting 4.5. Obviously Skinner on an ELC is also a nice deal, but he scored 2/3 of MSL, with a likely unsustainable Sh%.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I think Skinner might be able to sustain shoot 14% or so. (maybe drop to 12-13%) He did score 70 goals (incl playoffs) in his last OHL season, I’d have to imagine his shooting% there was pretty darn good. So there’s some past evidence, even in a much lower competition level, that he could have an above average sh% ‘skill.’
It’s not like Stepan (to use a Rangers’ example) who shot 12.7% this year when he didn’t crack 10% at Wisconsin.
*note, Ive done no research to see if shooting percentages translate league to league, but intuitively I don’t think a guy should have a sustainably easier time scoring against NHL-level goalies than those of other leagues.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 20, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with your last point that Sh% shouldn’t increase at the NHL, but I don’t see how OHL scoring equates. Has there been any study of that? And, as you’re surely aware, it’s not the raw scoring that’s the issue if you are talking Sh%.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Well, I mention the scoring because there’s a good chance the 70 goals came with a pretty high sh%. I couldn’t find his OHL SOG total to confirm that.
The point I attempted is that guys with high shooting percentages in juniors/AHL could bring some of that ability with them, in theory at least. Again, I admit I’ve done no research to test that, just something I’ve been toying with on my head.
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by George E. Ays on Sep 20, 2011 5:36 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Salary wasn’t considered in compiling the list.
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