Wednesday Caps Clips
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 6:53 AM EDT
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Your savory breakfast links:
- Earthquake! O, the humanity. [Capitals Outsider, Peerless, @sarahwaters96, @YoCalleJo]
- Buy or sell "a reasonable expectation of 18 goals plus 52 assists for 70 points in 81 games for [Nicklas Backstrom], not much improvement over last year"? [Insider2]
- A look ahead to John Erskine's 2011-12. [RtR]
- Here's Matt Hendricks and John Carlson being awesome for an awesome charity. [CSN Washington (video)]
- You know the drill - go vote. [CBS Washington]
- Finally, happy 38th birthday to Andrew Brunette, and happy 52nd to Gary Sampson.
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Before the melee starts on my Backstrom proj, here are the numbers I used:
At 5v5, Backstrom scores 17% of the goals he is on the ice for himself and registers points on 66% of them as a whole. The points% has been 66%, 64%, 69%, 67% the last four years.
The shots-for per 60 with NB19 on the ice has been consistent as well. 31, 32, 31, 31.
I didn’t use straight averages to get 2011-12 projection, but you can see the point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent.
As we have said before, the PP will carry some freight, and I made some assumptions as to where the PP unit would go in 2011-12.
Knowing there would be some debate, I made the full spreadsheet avail I used (less my projection calculations) on Google Docs if anyone is interested.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Sir, please do not try to silence the people – if it’s a melee they want, it’s a melee they shall have!
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by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
My favorite. A melee with monocles.
Good discussion as usual.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 24, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Erp—that is the following threads on Nicky’s bounce back expectations.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 24, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
the point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent
Further to that point, the raw point totals at ES have been consistent as well, with one outlier – 44, 46, 64, 42.
But I think he rebounds for a couple of reasons:
1) S% – over the last three seasons, he’s gone 12.6, 14.9, 8.9. I think that 8.9 is as much if not more of an outlier as the 14.9 was.
2) Zone starts – somewhat wishful thinking, perhaps, but you know that just a couple more O-zone starts per game piles up points. On this point, we’ve all talked about how his precipitous decline in O-zone starts cost him last year… so were you surprised to come to the conclusion that “point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent”?
3) PP – again, wishful thinking, but it’s gotta be better than it was.
I’ve got no secret sauce, but I’m going 25-57-82 for Nick.
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were you surprised to come to the conclusion that "point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent"?
Yes, but he played more 5v5 time too. It is something I need to look into more for sure.
PP – again, wishful thinking, but it’s gotta be better than it was.
I used a 17% on-ice PP Sh% for my proj, which is average for the three years prior. The challenge is less PP opps for the team as a whole (league-wide) I think.
I’ve got no secret sauce, but I’m going 25-57-82 for Nick.
25 goals? How would you guess that shakes out EV vs PP?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
25 goals? How would you guess that shakes out EV vs PP?
17-7 (with a shorty thrown in there on Chris Mason early in the second period in the third Jets game).
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17-7
NB19 avg’d 132 EV shots past two years. That’s a 13% EV Sh% to get to 17 goals. He shot 15% in 2009-10, 9% last year.
That leaves about 70 shots for the PP, so a 10% Sh% there.
PP Sh% should be higher than EV I think in 2011-12.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
That makes sense. Maybe I’ll change my distribution to 16-8 or 15-9.
Like I said, I lack secret sauce. But after seasons with 14, 11 and 4 PPGs, I think bouncing back a good bit there can happen, and with an average of 18 ESGs over the last two seasons, I don’t see why he it’d be unreasonable to peg him in the 15-17 range this year. So 15-17 ESGs, 7-9 PPGs, 0-1 SHGs… a range of 22-27 goals seems reasonable, and I’ll stick with 25 as my prediction.
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Wasn’t disparaging the proj, just offering other info I had.
Bottom line: Who knows what’s in store for 2011-12. So many things can happen that could impact the production of NB19 it’s a crapshoot, but I am interested to see other people’s proj.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I didn’t take it as disparaging and I appreciate the info – helped me focus more on how and why.
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NB’s 5v5 TOI/game, per BtN, went from 14.97 to 15.12 last year… not a huge (~1% increase). I’m still sorta stuck on the point about zone starts – did they not have as much impact as we’d previously thought? That doesn’t make sense to me.were you surprised to come to the conclusion that “point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent”?Yes, but he played more 5v5 time too. It is something I need to look into more for sure.
So what I see is “point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent,” but then see that he fell from 3.03 to 2.01 PTS/60… that doesn’t seem fairly consistent, but more like a 33% decline. Even if we wholly discard 2009-10 as an outlier (which, I think, is unfair given the player’s development, though it is a year with a lot of luck, no doubt), he dropped from 2.22 to 2.01, which is still a ~10% drop.
Bump that back up to 2.20 (conservative, and the average of his two non-career seasons) and multiply that by last year’s minutes and games played and he’s at ~42.3 ES Pts. If he plays 82 games, that’s 45 points. Get back the non-luck part of 2009-10 and he’s probably up over 50 there.
Similar logic on the PP and I don’t think it’s too hard to imagine him getting back to around 30 points there.
25-57-82, FTW!
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I’m still sorta stuck on the point about zone starts – did they not have as much impact as we’d previously thought?
Quite possible.
"point production at 5v5 with NB19 on the ice is fairly consistent,"
I meant shot volume, not points. My bad.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
And admittedly, my projection is optimistic, but I think it’s still realistic.
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but I think it’s still realistic.
Agree, and I would argue the range for NB19 is wider than most because there are SO many variables going into it.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Not to mention the simple fact that he’s scored 101 and 65 points in the past two seasons. How many guys have had that big a season-to-season drop-off (minimum 75 games played in each season, say)? And how’d those guys fair in the following campaigns?
Eric Staal’s 100-to-70-to-82 comes to mind (yes, I can do math and know that 30 doesn’t equal 36), but Eric Staal didn’t have an AO, so his 100 was probably more of an aberration, as good as he is. Yup… many, many variables (and we can add a potentially-healthy Mike Green to the list of ’em).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Without factoring in inj (like Corsby and Malkin)? Just EStaal among post lockout centers.
Henrik Sedin, Joe Thornton & Vincent Lecavalier all went from 100+ to 90s
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Right. I feel more confident predicting what the stock market will do in a week than what Backstrom will do this season. Hell, I feel more confident predicting what Semin will do than what Backstrom will do.
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Today’s Nooner: which happens first – DOW 12,000 or Alex Semin’s 25th goal of the season?
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(I should say “next,” not “first”)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Thumbs up.
"You just have a sense," Holland says. "The type of player you want, the type of situation you reference for your next game, you see it."
by Acer Jonesy's Laughker on Aug 24, 2011 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I find it shocking that we’re discussing Nick Backstrom through thirty-odd posts, and this is the only time the word “thumb” appears.
Y’all know I believe in numbers as much as anyone else, but doesn’t any discussion of his effectiveness last year begin with the words “broken thumb?” Shouldn’t certain numbers be relied on more than others because we know he wasn’t truly himself when he was playing through the injury?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 24, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Neil addresses the injury in his post:
Some will point to the broken left thumb Backstrom suffered in late February, which kept him out of games for the first time in his career, but General Manager George McPhee rejected the idea that an injury was to blame.
The stats agree. After Backstrom fractured his left thumb Feb. 21 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, he took more scoring chances and shots per game but converted on fewer than half of them. A scoring chance is a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots. Generating the shot itself is based more on talent than converting it, so the numbers suggest it wasn’t much of a factor.
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Fair enough, but I strongly disagree with the premise.
I understand that we have some statistical analyses of players with whole thumbs that suggest that skill has little effect on conversion rates. But I can’t agree that those analyses can be used, by analogy, to indicate that players with broken thumbs don’t have lower conversion rates. A broken thumb isn’t the same as less or more skill.
In other words, isn’t “he had just as many chances to score but couldn’t put the puck in the net or make quite as clean a final pass” exactly what you might expect from a guy with a broken thumb?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 24, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I think that’s fair. Presumably the logic is skill gets you scoring chances, luck finishes ‘em, and since it’s luck that finishes ‘em, it’s unimpacted by injury.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Doesn’t that assume that the primary skill of Backstrom is in shooting, or taking the scoring chance? It overlooks his ability to possess the puck, battle/protect it on the boards, and it undoubtedly hampered his otherworldly passing skills.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 24, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
See my note above – presumably the logic is skill gets you scoring chances, luck finishes ‘em, and since it’s luck that finishes ‘em, it’s unimpacted by injury.
But I agree that focusing on the scoring chances neglects the broader range of skills and unquantified ability.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
But an injury would still impact the luck rubric. I can’t believe that it’s 100% luck. A harder shot has a better shot of going in, a harder pass gives the shooter a better chance at an open shot. If you have Ovechkin and Boyd Gordon taking identical scoring chances, does it really pass the smell test that it’s going to be luck which one goes in? If you were offered a one-timer in the slot for any one player on the team, would you say “I don’t care who takes it, it’s all a matter of luck anyway”?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 24, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Depends on the scoring chance. If it’s a tap-in at the side of the net, I don’t care who’s taking it. A one-timer in the slot? Sure, it matters some, but I’m not sure it matters as much as you think. Obviously there’s a difference between Ovechkin and Gordon, but what’s the difference between Backstrom and MoJo or Laich or any non-elite goal-scorer?
Over a 17-game stretch, is it more likely that an injury impacted his conversion rate on scoring chances or that dumb luck did? Who knows? But even if that conversion rate was wholly attributed to the injury, what’s the impact on his overall numbers? Pretty small.
The point here is that he was still getting chances. More of them, even. And an increase in opportunities is as much an argument for “the injury didn’t impact him” as the decreased conversions are for “the injury did impact him.”
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And Feb. to the end of the season was the best hockey the team played for any prolonged stretch over the entire season. Specifically Ovechkin…
Obviously, this is all speculation.
So Nick got dragged along for the ride despite his injury or Nick’s injury wasn’t so bad, as evidenced by the fact that he helped the team to its best hockey of the season?
Not for nothing, but he was ~56% in the dot after the injury – a pretty impressive faceoff percentage for a guy with one hand, no?
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I’d say it’s more likely the former.
Which thumb was hurt, top or bottom hand?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
FWIW, I’m in neither wholly the “injury impacted him” nor the “it didn’t” camp on this one, I’m just making the counter-arguments.
To me, there were two post-injury segments to look at – before and after he sat for five games. Before: two points in seven games. After: ten points in ten games, 57% on draws.
I don’t think it’s far-fetched to think that he was hurting, sat, then felt better. Why do I think this (besides those numbers)? Backstrom himself said so:
How’s your thumb?
It feels good now and it’s completely healed. It wasn’t just a fracture, it was actually a complete ligament tear. The thumb was kind of just hanging there, all loose. I knew about this, but still tried to play with special protection. But then I got hit again and … yeah, what can I say, it is what it is. I rested for a few games and that was what I needed.
When a ligament in the finger is torn there is nothing you can do really, it will heal up by itself. The important thing is that it’s ok now. And that was what we were trying to achieve with me sitting out some games. And now it both feels and looks like it normally does. [laughs] The thumb is 100 percent.
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by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And more, this from June (also Malin’s great work):
It’s been a month since your team got bounced from the playoffs and you have had some time to put things in perspective. And you had a thumb injury that prevented you from participating in the World Championship. How’s your thumb feeling now?
It had to heal on its own, they couldn’t do anything to speed up the process. It was a fracture at first but then I tore the ligament and everything. But I feel much better now. I have regained feeling in the thumb and I can move it much better now.
How much did the thumb injury really affect you?
Of course I was affected by it, and of course you want to be 100%. But that’s hockey, injuries happen. You just have to accept the reality as it it and live with it.
It was not like I had broken foot so that I couldn’t skate. But it sucks to get this type of injury, sort of a “semi-injury” with just seven or eight games left before the playoffs. But there is nothing I can do about that now.
So that sounds more frank and honest, and clearly he feels it impacted him… so it did. That’s enough for me.
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by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And an increase in opportunities is as much an argument for "the injury didn’t impact him" as the decreased conversions are for "the injury did impact him."
Depends on the scoring chance.
Just as not all scoring chances are created equally, nor are they created in the same way. Knuble may get a decent number of chances, but he typically creates those chances by being in the right place at the right time. Backstrom typically creates chances with his skating, puckhandling and passing and, on occasion, with his shot. It’s possible that a player with the skill, intelligence and creativity of Backstrom created scoring chances in ways that didn’t require a healthy thumb. Or it’s possible that, given his injury, he was carrying the puck into the zone less often, meaning that instead of being the passer who sets up the scoring chance, he (by default) became the finisher. His chances might have gone up, but his conversion rate was terrible due to the thumb.
While we may never know for sure what his chances looked like over that stretch, I find it extremely difficult to believe that a player whose thumb was so fragile that he couldn’t take faceoffs could direct pucks at the net effectively.
Armareddon.
by D'ohboy on Aug 24, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
a player whose thumb was so fragile that he couldn’t take faceoffs
He took 10+ draws in a dozen of the 17 post-injury games and more than 15 nine times. He did take just four in the three games following the injury.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
He did take just four in the three games following the injury.
As my recollection goes, however, he basically reached a point at which he’d do no further damage. Doesn’t mean the thumb felt good, just that he wouldn’t screw it up any more.
Armareddon.
So he was taking a lot of them and winning a lot of them. It might not have felt good, but it certainly was getting the job done (at least to the point where “a player whose thumb was so fragile that he couldn’t take faceoffs” seems a bit of an overstatement, no?).
He was actually 7-for-7 in the game before he sat for five. Seven’s obviously a low total, but 7-for-7 is a pretty decent percentage.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
if I’m remember how this all happened, Nick broke his thumb on Feb. 21, which he and presumably Bruce were trying to baby and protect from further damage by limiting his faceoffs. At some point, he fell and made the fracture worse and tore the ligament. So, it was fragile and he avoided faceoffs, but he still ended up making it worse, at which point he really couldn’t do a whole lot more damage and started taking FOs again.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
"a player whose thumb was so fragile that he couldn’t take faceoffs" seems a bit of an overstatement, no?
There were several games after his return wherein he took approximately zero faceoffs. I remember it quite clearly because there was a pretty healthy discussion on here to the tune of “if he’s not healthy enough to be taking draws, WTF is he doing playing at all?”
Still, my statement was a bit misleading. I would argue, however, that faceoffs do not require the same skill as shooting, otherwise Boyd Gordon and David Steckel wouldn’t be Boyd Gordon and David Steckel. Nick’s injury and any braces/bandaging it required may have allowed him to take faceoffs, but may have made shooting quite difficult.
Armareddon.
There were several games after his return wherein he took approximately zero faceoffs
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Seriously?
Faceoffs:
Feb. 17: 20
Feb. 20: 19
Feb. 21: 30
Injury
Feb. 25: 1
Feb. 26: 1
Mar. 1: 1
To go from 30 to 1 is, to me, damn close to going to zero. The only draws Nick took in those games were when the original guy was tossed from the dot.
Armareddon.
Don’t sell him short, he took 2 draws on Feb 26.
Tu ne cede malis
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 24, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Feb 26 was 2. Won 1, lost 1.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Um, no shit. That’s why I noted “He did take just four in the three games following the injury.” But that wasn’t “after his return” – that was well before he sat for five games. “After his return” he averaged 17 draws per game.
Obviously just a miscommunication between us here. I think we’re on the same page now.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Also, it’s “no shit, Sherlock.”
Get it right.
(In this little metaphor, F&B’s clearly Moriarty. Hooray for metaphors!)
Armareddon.
Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves, Moriarty?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 24, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I would argue, however, that faceoffs do not require the same skill as shooting, otherwise Boyd Gordon and David Steckel wouldn’t be Boyd Gordon and David Steckel. Nick’s injury and any braces/bandaging it required may have allowed him to take faceoffs, but may have made shooting quite difficult.
I don’t think anyone would argue otherwise.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And yes, it depends on the scoring chance. But that’s why I controlled my hypothetical to be the same scoring chance. For any given type of scoring chance, don’t you have a preference of who is taking it? Doesn’t that go a good way to dispel the notion that it’s all luck?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
For any given type of scoring chance, don’t you have a preference of who is taking it?
No, not really. Like I said, I could give a toss who’s on the receiving end of a pass that sets up a goal-mouth tap-in. And do I care if my wrister from 15-feet out is Laich or Knuble or Backstrom? A bit more, but still not a whole lot.
Obviously a guy with more of a scoring touch is preferential to a guy without one. And I certainly don’t think it’s all luck. But if you’re talking about a shot that is scored on roughly 60% of the time it’s taken by an NHLer, I’d assume (instinctually) there’s a really steep bell curve where “Boyd Gordon” scores on it 40% of the time, “Alex Ovechkin” scores on it 80% of the time, and the vast, overwhelming majority of NHLers score on it between 55% and 65% of the time, if that makes any sense.
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scoring in hockey is a matter of inches; whether a shot hits the post or careens in, whether it hits the catcher glove or sails by, whether it hits just the right spot on the goalie’s pads to make a juicy rebound or gets swallowed up, whether you guide it into the net or into the glass. I have a hard time believing that when something is compromised with your hand—be it freedom of movement for your fingers, hand strength, or just your touch—that it doesn’t have a significant effect on how often your shots go in.
by j762 on Aug 24, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s certainly your prerogative to have a hard time believing that.
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That’s not fair or accurate. Neil expressly addresses the injury in his post (as I noted above).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I meant that Neil came to the conclusion that it didn’t affect him. I apologize for saying something when i’m clearly not smart enough to talk about the subject. I will shut up now.
No need to be dramatic – I misinterpreted what you said as him having not addressed the injury, not as the injury having no impact on him. You’re right, I’m wrong. Moving along…
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And this is a topic on which you’re very well-versed – I’d love to hear your thoughts and evidence on how the injury did impact Backstrom.
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I think my wording comes across as a complete disregard for his injury. That’s not the case.
I do think had he not had the injury his boxcar stats would not have deviated too much from what they were.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I do think had he not had the injury his boxcar stats would not have deviated too much from what they were.
He dropped from ~.9 points per game to ~.7. Had he kept up his ytd pace and not missed those five games, he’d have had eight more points, which would’ve been a ~12% increase on his seasons totals. That’s not nothing.
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Sell. I don’t believe that Nick topped out production-wise on his ELC. I know scorers see their point peaks in their early 20s, but for assist guys I think they shouldn’t be so front loaded. There’s no reason for Nick to be less than a point per game player, and I think we’re going to see him rebound to something closer to 80-85 than 70. Last year was a brutal year for both him and AO, I don’t see how the “rebound year” lands them at basically the same level. So putting him at 70 is effectively saying last year wasn’t a down year, it was the new normal.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
putting him at 70 is effectively saying last year wasn’t a down year, it was the new normal.
Not necessarily. He still has time in his prime to get back there, I just am betting against it in 2011-12.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Walk me through the logic. You’re pegging him based on career numbers, but still leaving open the possibility for having more huge seasons? If you continue to peg him on career numbers (and are correct), then what is going to lead to an 85 point season? Or are you just never going to project 85 but won’t be surprised if it happens?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
You’re pegging him based on career numbers
No. I’m not.
I didn’t use straight averages to get 2011-12 projection
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Really, you’re not basing you numbers based on points production with Nick on the ice over his prior 4 seasons? Enlighten me, my reading comprehension must be a steaming fail.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
you’re not basing you numbers based on points production with Nick on the ice over his prior 4 seasons?
I am using that as a ratio, but I am also taking into account what the team around him will do.
Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant by “pegging.” To me that implies inflexibility.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Age, experience are also taken into account.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
(I’m not saying career boxcars, but it looks like you drew baselines from Nick’s prior 4 years in terms of shots while on ice, and percentages of goals that Nick points on. Those seem like projections based on career numbers.)
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Ahh. That’s not where the projections come in from exactly, but i understand what you mean now.
There are team and indiv adjustments that are made, but obv those numbers you mention are a starting point in most cases.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I just am betting against it in 2011-12.
Why? Why specifically in 11-12 and not 12-13, or 13-14? What is it about next year that makes a rebound unlikely?
Armareddon.
Rebound unlikely next year, to be re-assessed after next year, presumably. I don’t think he’s saying, “He’ll rebound in 12-13 for sure, but won’t this coming season.”
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
(Though I think we could all make a logical guess as to why a rebound in 2012-13 would be likely if one doesn’t come in 2011-12.)
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Why? Why specifically in 11-12 and not 12-13, or 13-14? What is it about next year that makes a rebound unlikely?
The further out you project, the more uncertainty. I take it one year at a time.
Is it possible I am wrong about NB19 next season? Of course. Do I stand by my proj? Youbetcha.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
There seems to be a large amount of cognitive dissonance between your pieces on Semin and Ovechkin, in which you relied a fair amount on age cohort-based projections, and your piece on Backstrom, which seemingly relies a great deal on the prior year’s performance. Using an age cohort-based projection on Backstrom’s career numbers would likely turn up much higher boxcar stats than your piece did, given his young age and the tendency of players’ scoring to (generally) increase slowly until their mid-to-late 20s.
Armareddon.
Using an age cohort-based projection on Backstrom’s career numbers would likely turn up much higher boxcar stats than your piece did
It didn’t for me. I ran those as well. I don’t remember what the exact boxcars were though. I can look when I get home.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Maybe you are already doing this, but any plans to do a recap post on RMNB (or WaPo, or E$PN) detailing accurate, and not so accurate results for this year’s predictions?
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 24, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
He did at the end of last season on RMNB.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Yup. Neil Goes on the Record: A Look Back at his Predictions
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Sweet, thanks.
Because now I can justify browsing and commenting during the work day with the argument that I am promoting my business.
by Sombrero Guy on Aug 24, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
for assist guys I think they shouldn’t be so front loaded
To wit, Joe Thornton’s two best assist-per-game seasons came when he was 26 and 27 (his 8th and 9th seasons). Henrik Sedin’s were the last two seasons at 29 and 30 (his 9th and 10th seasons). Brad Richards’ came at 30 and 25 (his 5th and 10th). Datsyuk’s at 29 and 30 (6th and 7th season).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
While I can appreciate the statistical effort, the bottom line for me is simple: in his first three seasons Nick improved his totals from one year to the next. Then he suffered a 35% dropoff last season and that one season, not the previous three, is supposed to be his new norm. Sorry, but I’m not even remotely buying that premise no matter how the numbers are presented. Backstrom is a world-class talent who hasn’t even reached his 24th birthday and as JP pointed out, the precedent is clearly established for assist guys to get better as they get older. I’m betting Nick’s a lot closer to 100 points next season than he is 70.
by b.orr4 on Aug 24, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
So you’re taking the over on 85 points? I do like your optimism…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Hey, I just survived the earthquake of the century. My whole perspectiove on life has changed.
by b.orr4 on Aug 24, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And if the team is more “d” oriented vs run and fun? Wouldn’t that push the totals closer to 70 vs 100?
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
Well, Bruce has said that they intend to find a middle ground this season and not be so focused on defensive play. That certainly should have some upward effect on his numbers along with improved health for him and his linemates.
the precedent is clearly established for assist guys to get better as they get older.
OK. But is that at age 28 or 25? I don’t know the answer but it does make a difference.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
How many more assists does Nicky get if everybody’s low shooting percentages revert back to norm?
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
Psst… Look at this past year.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Aug 24, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m betting Nick’s a lot closer to 100 points next season than he is 70.
Since lockout, number of centers who have posted 90pts or more:
2005-06 5
2006-07 7
2007-08 5
2008-09 4
2009-10 5
2010-11 2
Since lockout, number of centers who have posted 70-89pts:
2005-06 17
2006-07 16
2007-08 15
2008-09 13
2009-10 12
2010-11 10
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
In points scored perhaps, not overall. At least not IMO.
Scoring is down. I have begun to adj my expectations accordingly.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Put this another way. If you knew five centers would score over 90 points in 2011-12, would NB19 be on your list?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Put it another way, if you knew only 2 centers would score only 90 points last year, any chance Sid isn’t on that list? There’s a lot of stuff in “X Centers will score X points” that are out of Nick’s control.
Nick is on my short list for Cs that could hit 90 points.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
There’s a lot of stuff in "X Centers will score X points" that are out of Nick’s control.
Do not disagree at all.
This will be my last word on the NB19 proj: it’s my best guess using an imperfect science with many moving parts, and while it may very well turn out to be wrong, I’m OK with it.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I guess my question is, “Why not use a perfect science without moving parts?” Duh.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that the league-wide decline in scoring will likely impact his numbers.
I agree with your implied supposition that 09-10 was likely a career year.
I disagree with your projection based on the following factors:
1. The team’s overall shooting percentage, and particularly its PP shooting percentage, is likely to regress back toward its mean – that is to say it will improve.
2. The team has improved its 5v5 depth at forward, meaning that Nick will likely be stuck with fewer defensive-zone assignments.
3. The team still lacks another power-play center, meaning Nick’s likely to get a large amount of PP TOI.
4. Nick’s only 23 and will be turning 24 in November. He’s still on the upswing of his career arc.
5. Last year notwithstanding, Nick’s been tremendously durable thus far in his NHL career and doesn’t seem to play a style like Ovechkin that might invite injury.
6. Nick’s ability to finish his chances was clearly affected by his thumb injury. Your own data shows that his shooting percentage declined precipitously. Your supposition that shooting percentage is entirely luck is untrue, and I think you’d have a hard time finding another hockey statistician that would agree with that statement. Luck plays a role, but the skill of both the shooter and the goaltender matter. There’s a reason that Alex Semin and Boyd Gordon have vastly different career shooting percentages. Either that, or when anyone says that Jason Chimera has “hands of stone,” I can simply reply that his hands are fine, he just has terrible luck.
Nick’s 09-10 will likely prove to be an outlier in his career. I’ve been saying as much since that season ended. In my opinion, his “true talent level” is as a 20-25G / 60-75A center over 82 games. League-wide decreases in scoring, or an absolute collapse by his linemates could push that toward the lower end.
To suggest, however, that Nick will essentially play the full 82 game season (81) and more-or-less replicate his worst season statistically outside of his rookie year (when he was on the third and fourth line for the first two months playing “Hanlon Hockey”) is, on the face of it, a stretch. Without seeing your “secret sauce” I’m left to assume that your projection model heavily weights the prior year’s performance. I think that’s an extremely flawed model when it’s clear that the prior year is obviously a statistical outlier.
I’d put my 82 game projection at around 23-62-85.
Armareddon.
by D'ohboy on Aug 24, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 11 recs
Your supposition that shooting percentage is entirely luck is untrue, and I think you’d have a hard time finding another hockey statistician that would agree with that statement.
WOA. When did I EVER say or write it was entirely luck?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Generating the shot itself is based more on talent than converting it, so the numbers suggest it wasn’t much of a factor.
Perhaps I should have phrased that differently, but I was assuming internal logical consistency in your argument:
If Backstrom’s conversion rate declines and you rule out the injury as a cause, then by logical extension, the decline is entirely luck-based.
You claimed that the numbers supported your argument that his thumb injury didn’t impact his scoring. I think they pretty clearly show that his shooting was off post-injury, which coincides with what my eyes saw and what Nick himself said after the season was over.
Armareddon.
by D'ohboy on Aug 24, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Without seeing your "secret sauce" I’m left to assume that your projection model heavily weights the prior year’s performance.
How is this accurate when I say I used a 17% PP Sh% (it was 9% last year) and 10% at EV?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Then, to be honest, I’ve got no idea how you arrived at your numbers unless you’re assuming that Backstrom’s ability to generate scoring chances has somehow declined rather precipitously.
In other words, you admit that his personal shooting percentage should improve along with that of the team and yet. . . you see his point totals being essentially a repeat of the year prior. If I follow the logic of your post (that shot and scoring-chance generation are skill-based), then that’s a pretty steep decline in skill for a 23-year old player with almost no history of significant injury.
Armareddon.
Related question: why do you keep the sauce secret for your projections? Do you consider it proprietary? Planning to use it in Vegas? I’ve been wondering why you don’t open up your methodology for all of your analyzes to us lowly ones.
And this isn’t snark, I definitely appreciate your work.
Full disclosure
I’ve been wondering why you don’t open up your methodology for all of your analyzes to us lowly ones.
Wonder no longer:
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
While I love XKCD, I think that sort of snark is exactly the reason why people who have played sports bristle at much of the statistical discourse. Remove the agency from the athletes and coaches and you might as well just let your XBOX 360 simulate the games.
Armareddon.
Wait, we can do that? Regular season is over! Time for playoffs! No injuries!
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Aug 24, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And how closely is this question/projection tied to “what kind of rebound does AO have?” (Not just aimed at Neil, and not just in terms of a goal scoring statistical rebound, if AO is actually in shape and creating like he should, that has to change the projection versus Michelin Man Ovechkin’s return, right?)
Obviously, this is all speculation.
And how closely is this question/projection tied to "what kind of rebound does AO have?"
Great Q, and one I took into account.
NB19 plays about a min less on the PP than Ovi, so there will be some differences there.
As for 5v5, BB just doesn’t stick with line combos enough for me to say that any uptick in Ovi’s production automatically impacts NB19 to a large degree.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
That last sentence doesn’t pass the smell test. Logically, a rejuvenated AO has to help everyone, including Nick. And while BB does jumble lines a ton, 19/8 has been a pretty reliable combination so I would anticipate that to be the same this year (pending J.P.’s lobbying for 90/8 and 19/28).
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 24, 2011 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Logically, a rejuvenated AO has to help everyone, including Nick.
Perhaps, but to what degree? That’s the unknown.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Logically, a rejuvenated AO has to help everyone, including Nick.
And it would do it in one of two ways – either directly, by virtue of NB assists on AO goals and vice versa, or indirectly, by virtue of AO and MJ skating together and presumably taking opponents’ top defensive focus away from NB.
But how much? Who knows – it’s all chicken-or-egg here. Maybe a rejuvenated NB makes AO. Maybe NB and AS skating together forces weaker competition for AO. It’s all inter-related, obviously.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s all in how he gets there. Backstrom has been something of a slow starter in his brief career — 7-29-36 in 44 career games in October and only once better than a point a game (not coincidentally, perhaps, his 101-point season).
Coming off an injury that could especially hamper his game, he might be excused a slow start. If he gets to 18-52-70 because he has a slow October/November, but a big March/April, no big deal. He would be getting hot at the right time. But if that outcome is a product of relatively consistent mediocrity, well, there’s always 2012-2013 for the Caps.
Here’s one… Backstrom and Brad Richards have almost equivalent annual cap hits (about $6.7M/yr). Which one scores more this year?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Aug 24, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Can’t believe RtR’s Erskine projection isn’t getting as much discussion as Neil’s Backstrom projection…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If Erskine dresses for 55 games, then the first thing that comes to mind is “Green’s hurt again.”
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Aug 24, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, can anyone explain why Peerless’s measure of hitting ability is named after former Rangers goalie Mike Richter?
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 24, 2011 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
rinkrebel
Houston, we have a Neuvy sighting. He’s joined the group on the [Kettler] ice. #caps
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Halpern too cool to wear a white helmet?
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
It’s funny that I knew instinctively the one on the left was Hendricks. No way I could make out the other guy was Halpern, though.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
Likewise. I’m going to have to relearn what his frame and skating stride look like.
Lacking specific evidence to the contrary, I shall blame this on Chemmy and Two Line Pass.
by CapitalCentre on Aug 24, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
The adorableness factor just increased 30-fold.
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
by oldemystix on Aug 24, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
my fb newsfeed has a post from the caps reading: “DC Beatification Day 2011 Video – NHL VideoCenter – Washington Capitals”
I didn’t know that the Caps had established a relationship with the Vatican…
yes, its so we can officially saint Vokoun for the selfless act of taking a mere 1.5 million to be our goalie :)
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
yea, St. George did miraculously produce a first-round draft pick and a second-round draft pick from the oft-injured netminder where before there was only the value in him for a second-rounder. Not 24 hours later, St. George did miraculously conjure a top-5 goaltender from a pile of cash which had the value of perhaps a 3rd-line winger.
And all of CapsFandom did rejoice in his miracles, while garden salads and Hagen Daas were enjoyed throughout the land
by j762 on Aug 24, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
And with this good cheer and fortune, the valiant knights Sirs Alexander, Nicklas, Michael, Alexander the Mercurial, and all their merry men, did embark on their quest for the Most Holy Over-sized Silver Grail, slaying many flightless birds and whatever the hell a ‘Flyer’ is along the way.
by j762 on Aug 24, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 9 recs
Perhaps they need to skip ahead some and read up on how to actually use the Holy Power Play of Constellation Energy Services.
This sig is brought to you by... Frungy, The Sport of Kings!
pssssh. don’t need it. His Holiness The Dali Lama cleansed the VC of bad spirits, included the Ghosts of Playoffs Past.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
by RedBirdie on Aug 24, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And sent us the angel with his clarion call: “Good morning, good afternoon, and good night [your opponent here].”
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
by EmilyB on Aug 24, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
cue the singing angels
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
by RedBirdie on Aug 24, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No one is going to believe that halo, esp. if they saw the guy play.
That’s George in Ranger blue battling Jim Peplinski of the Flames…
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Aug 24, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Subject line per favore.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Aug 24, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Eeep… my bad. I know better.
Many apologies!
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)
by MikeL-Pivonka on Aug 24, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Galiev’s tweeting again:
@galixon_97
Just sign with Capitals
That'll make your weagle wink!
The pants that bind us should be left behind us.
I know what he meant, but my initial reaction was “What? Who? Me?”
Nice guys finish first, but sometimes the season is awfully long.
Follow me on Twitter.
congrats, Stan!
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Caps announcement , which says nothing we didn’t already know.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Shouldn’t he be announcing that by springing through a curtain or something?
If you've read this far...seek help.
by ThePeerless on Aug 24, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Can he play for Hershey this season? Or is this a NHL-or-minors situation, like Eakin had last season?
My mind is all twtisted like a peanut.
He’s going back to the Q, but when his season’s done, he can go to HER.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Sea Dogs are still a pretty good team. And two Q teams will make the memorial Cup this year, as the Shawinigan Cataractes are hosting.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
Yes, I see that the Cataractes look to have their eye on the Memorial Cup.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
October 2 preseason game discussion in the OTOT
A bunch of us are going try to go together. So far, I have six names and am working to get a block of tickets for us all to sit together. If anyone else wants to come, let me know in the OTOT, please.
There's always more to learn about Hockey.
Dare I ask?
Have we been spoiled with 2 consecutive noon numbers? Did the earthquake consume today’s?
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Aug 24, 2011 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
It’s up. Not showing up for you? Let me see if I can fix that…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
My RSS reader is slow — I was waiting for the obligatory JP post in this thread but I did find it. Thanks.
J.P.: You might be the king of all geeks here…
by Alz Well That Ends Well on Aug 24, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I was busy providing myself with mid-day nourishment. Apologies.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Gotta have priorities, Blogfather.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Aug 24, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Might be consuming your browser, as I can see it.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Aug 24, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
According to ElBashir:
Stanislav Galiev’s new three year contract will average $550K in the NHL. #Caps
"I wear tinted visor not to trick other players, but so hot girls in stands don't see me looking at them" - Alex Ovechkin
so, league minimum.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Actually, League minimum is $525k this coming year and who knows thereafter. But yeah, he’s making next-to-nothing-that-I’d-gladly-stab-a-hobo-for-to-have-as-my-annual-salary.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
by J.P. on Aug 24, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
probably got lost in the insanity that was yesterday afternoon, but CI has some pictures up of the amount of swag bruce collected for his hockey camp.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Link to photo of Sasha and the kids he is teaching in Russia this summer. I guess he just doesn’t care.
Obviously he doesn’t care since he went back to Russia. He is teaching the next generation not to care. Look at that photo. At least half the kids seem not to care. A half-assed accomplishment, well done, Sasha.
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
Ourand with an interesting look at NBCN’s strategy of gaining a foothold in sports television.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
Josh Godfrey has signed with the Baby Sens.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
There’s now a video of Sasha’s clinic today up on the link with all the kids skating. They have lots of energy for kids who don’t care. There’s also an interview with Semin with his Caps hat. He looks like he cares!
Syllabus:
Part 1: I don’t give a jizz
Part 2: Faking it
Part 3: Faking bongos
(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)
Part 4: How to use an interpreter to avoid the media and other tricks of the trade
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 24, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
So every time we see a picture of Semin now we have to have a discussion about whether he cares or not? Sheesh.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 25, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Two comments of the same nature in 30 minutes from a commenter named “semincares” with an account created after the Bradley interview? Maybe it was, but that’s not how it struck me. Maybe I’m just touchy.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
The two aren’t mutually exclusive.
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