Monday Caps Clips
by EmilyB on Aug 15, 2011 6:51 AM EDT
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- After a difficult 2010-2011 season, what can the Caps expect production-wise from Alex Ovechkin? [RMNB (Greenberg)]
- Along those lines, here's a look at the top three scorers and their point totals for every team in the League from last year. There is certainly room for improvement in Capsville. [Breakaway Goal]
- A Canesblogger comes a'calling to size up the division rivals. [Cardiac Cane]
- The Czech hockey press drew up a list of "difference makers" for each team in the Southeast division. Unsurprisingly, they have chosen Tomas Vokoun as the difference maker for the Caps. I, for one, welcome our new pětatřicetiletým matador. [NHLpro.cz via GoogleTrans]
- Staying with the Southeast, here are the best bargain contracts in the division. [PHT]
- Analyzing every team's 2011 free agent crop, including goals gained and goals lost. Spoiler: The Caps are "noticeably better" but don't let that keep you from clicking. [Litter Box Cats]
- ...and it's never too early to start mapping out your team's 2012 free agency strategies. But you can't tell the players without a program. [USA Today (Allen), THN Puck Panel (video)]
- Discussing the "A," eh? [News from the Nosebleeds]
- Jeff Schultz or Scott Hannan? The choice has been made; now for the debate. [Mark's Musings]
- Postcard from Russia: Sasha Semin is handing out prizes in his hometown, and Ovi is nowhere to be seen. Intrigue! [Alex Ovetjkin]
- A week from today Matt Hendricks will be teeing it up in Rockville for Defending the Blue Line, and he and Mrs. Hendricks have issued a personal invitation to join them. [Rock the Red]
- Speaking of Caps couples, the Twitterin' Kolzigs sure have been entertaining. [Capitals Outsider]
- Eleven names from DevCamp that you may never hear/see again. [Capitals Outsider]
- Finally, happy 36th birthday to Brendan Morrison, happy 42nd birthday to James Black, and happy 57th birthday to Roland Stoltz.
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Interesting that Neil’s prediction has Ovechkin’s shot total way down (11% drop from last 2 year average) but his shooting % coming way up for the upcoming season. There seems to be some statistical justification for this, plus a bit of going with the gut. Nice piece, hope it’s right, or even a bit conservative.
Terrifically juvenile.
39 goals?!?!?
Why does Greenberg hate Ovi!
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
see this article proves why you can’t trust those #fancystats of Neil’s. Gotta go with what you see on the ice and feel in your gut! Now if he were a good ol’ Canadian boy he would understand how to do this right.
/done channeling Don Cherry
I realise he came to those conclusions just by the numbers, but OV has much more than a .8% chance of scoring 50 goals this year.
I’m not sure I’d bet on him getting there, but it’s not a minute possibility.
OV has much more than a .8% chance of scoring 50 goals this year.
How do you figure?
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No real mathematical reasoning, I just think that a beast of a player like Alex Ovechkin still has a reasonable shot at 50+ goals. I’d put it in the ballpark of a 10% chance.
.8% is a minute possibility. Like, Oilers winning the Cup possibility. OV has a better chance of scoring 50 goals than of the Oilers or some other shit team winning the Cup
I hear you… but there’s no methodology there, nothing more than a gut feeling. Why 10%? Why not 20%? Or 5%? What are the differences among those numbers? What do those numbers even mean?
I think that disputing Neil’s methodology could have some validity to it, but I don’t see what useful purpose is served by dismissing 0.8% in favor of 10%.
That said, I do think that if you played 2011-12 125 different times, AO scores 50 goals in more than one of those seasons… but I have no real reason to think that other than hope and optimism.
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I think that disputing Neil’s methodology could have some validity to it
True. I tried a “top down” approach and felt comfortable with it. Feedback encouraged.
As for
I just think that a beast of a player like Alex Ovechkin still has a reasonable shot at 50+ goals. I’d put it in the ballpark of a 10% chance.
Scoring is down league wide the past few years and we have seen less and less 50-goal scorers. In 2005-06 there were five. Last year, one.
A 40-goal season is a HUGE accomplishment, and if Ovi does hit 50, a lot would have gone his way. Odds are against, and I doubt it is anywhere near 10%.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
when you put it that way, it makes sense…
I still think that the chances of OV hitting 50 are significantly higher than .8%. But you do make a good point that there is a real dearth of very-high scorers.
I still think that the chances of OV hitting 50 are significantly higher than .8%.
Take Ovi out of the equation for a sec, since his 50-goal seasons were influenced by his high number of shots on goal.
The other eight players (post lockout) had an average Sh% of 16.6% (in a league whose average is ~9.5%) over 315 average shots as a group.
That’s a whole lot of “puck luck” to bank on.
Back to Ovi: if we say that he is now at the 360 shot level (where he has been the past two years) then he needs a 13.9% Sh% to make 50 goals. He’s only done that twice in his career, and one of those was in 2009-10 when the entire team went goal-crazy.
The chances of a 50-goal season are slim. Maybe it isn’t .8%, but it sure ain’t much higher.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Fun fact: if he did hit 50 this year he’d be the 4th oldest post-lockout (Jagr, Iggy, Vinny).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Aug 15, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, it’s worth bearing in mind that Corey Perry was the ONLY 50 goal-scorer last season, and shot 17.2% in the process. It seems that 40 is much more likely for an elite goal-scorer these days.
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by The Ghost of Bebop on Aug 15, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Fo sho, and a little more representative of any given year (meaning a bigger sprinkling of 30+ year old guys in there).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Aug 15, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Another thing worth keeping in mind – the Ducks were run-n-gun last year. I looked back at the game sheet for our 7-6 firewagon game and Perry scored his 29th goal of the year, in mid-February. He went on to score 21 more goals between then and the end of the season. EN FUEGO.
In the same game, Ovi scored his 22nd goal on the year, and could only muster 10 more in the same period of time. He may also have been playing with whatever injury caused him to sit out those games late in the season.
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20102011/GS020862.HTM
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The high volume of shots is what makes Ovechkin Ovechkin, though. If memory serves you’re projecting him to have the lowest shot total of his career. Considering the Capitals should be a better possession team and get more power plays, I think an increase in shot volume and percentage is what will happen.
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by red army line on Aug 15, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s 39 goals total without the benefit of more starts in the offensive zone, a better off-season training regimen and plain ole good fortune.
Hitting 50 for anyone in the league is hard, and seemingly even harder given that the league-wide numbers of power plays awarded has fallen so drastically since 2005. But I hope that with with the factors you mention, especially luck, he hits somewhere between 40 and 50.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 15, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Along with a large number of assists for Ovi. So Nicky had better have his bounce back season right alongside him.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 15, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
This does remind me of one big factor. What are the odds of OV staying on the point on the PP? And the odds of the PP staying static?
Can we factor that in, somewhere?
And I’d also like to point out that people’s gut reactions are horribly bad at judging low-percentage likelihoods (terrorism, lottery, etc).
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by AMusingFool on Aug 15, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovie on the point? 100%
PP staying static? 75%
Bruce thinks it works, the rest of the league knows it doesn’t work. Hell, even Bill Dauterive moved Chara down to the slot to at least shake things up on the PP.
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btw Neil in case you weren’t aware I’m 200% on board with #fancystats and several of my friends who follow you have suggested that maybe we are somehow long-lost statgeek brothers or something.
by Beakers Lab on Aug 15, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that disputing Neil’s methodology could have some validity to it,
To clarify, I’m not disputing it, but rather asserting that a discussion on common terms and subtance is a lot more productive
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the chances of mike green scoring 50 goals
is higher than a bad NHL team like the Islanders winning the Cup next year…
by thewiz06 on Aug 15, 2011 6:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks to Em for picking up today’s Clips – I’d complain about my travel woes yesterday, but that would prevent me from future chirping beat writers when they whyne complain about theirs. Zing!
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 7:43 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
O the humanity.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
I see what he did there. Has Monsieur Whyno ever posted here?
Perhaps, unlike the former congressman, he should start pronouncing his name like “weeno.”
Nice guys finish first, but sometimes the season is awfully long.
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I don’t think he posts here. And it’s all in good fun.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I get it – as was my comment.
Nice guys finish first, but sometimes the season is awfully long.
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Did a blimp blow up?
Geeks of All Nations, Compile!
by AMusingFool on Aug 15, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d complain about my travel woes yesterday, but that would prevent me from future chirping beat writers when they whyne complain about theirs.
So bascially, what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, huh?
Let’s just say there was a “fraud alert” hold put on my credit card AND I maxed withdrawals from my ATM on Saturday night.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Did you find that missing tooth?
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Aug 15, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
So where were you at, J.P? Vegas by some chance? I was actually there myself this weekend.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
000
Lambert’s column:
Put simply, the fact that Hannan got passed over by every team in the league for about a month and a half, while guys like Ed Jovanovski(notes) scored more money and longer terms, is big-name hunting run amok, without regard for sensibility. That he didn’t get a call on a one-year contract before Sheldon Souray(notes) is baffling beyond words. Hell, the Caps brought in five-years-older Roman Hamrlik(notes) at 3.5 times the money and twice the years, even if they don’t exactly need help filling the goal on the power play.
Look at it this way: for teams like the Caps who score goals by the boatload, doesn’t it make more sense to have a guy like Hannan who can prevent goals, rather than someone who helps create them?
(I would emphasize those with a quote box or italics, but it appears the command buttons aren’t working).
So I guess it comes down to whether you’d rather have Hannan or Hamrlik? I think I’m leaning towards the latter. I know he doesn’t really kill penalties, but he blocks an ass ton of shots, and he’ll chip in more offensively than Hannan will. Lambert seems to think that teams pay too much for offensive minded Dmen, but I look on it as a “premium” position, ala a 2B or an SS in baseball. Any time you can get offense out of a position where there isn’t “traditionally” a lot of offense, you go for it. On another point, I think that’s what people miss a lot when they rip on Mike Green for not “playing defense”. A defenseman who can pot 20-25 on a cosistent basis is much, much more valuable to me than a forward who can pot 30.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 9:15 AM EDT reply actions
I’m still trying to figure out whether Hamrlik’s BkS numbers are a product of Jaques Martin’s system or something he’s done his whole career. But even if it is systemic, he’s still shown the aptitude to do it, and without getting injured in the process, like Volchenkov.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m still trying to figure out whether Hamrlik’s BkS numbers are a product of Jaques Martin’s system or something he’s done his whole career.
If I recall correctly, Vic Ferrari had a post showing that blocking shots was a skill, but getting a shot blocked had a component of luck to it.
I don’t have it bookmarked or I would link to it.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Is this the link you were looking for?
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derp.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I think it’s pretty hard to make the case that both aspects don’t have luck and skill involved. Untangling them is the issue. I can say for sure that not getting a shot blocked has a lot of skill to it. Whether there are guys in the NHL level that are noticeably better than their peers is a different question, but skill is certainly a huge part of getting shots through traffic.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Definitely agree here. Some guys, for example, take an hour to wind-up and shoot and some guys have quicker releases – the difference there has to impact having shots blocked, no?
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Yeah, and changing the angle of your release at the last second is a vastly underrated skill. It makes the job tougher for D and G, and is very hard. Just seeing the open lanes, lining yourself up, and not hitting the D in the shins is a skill as well. It goes beyond just having a quick release, it has to do with reading the play and adjusting your shot all in less than a second.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, and changing the angle of your release at the last second is a vastly underrated skill.
You always gotta be careful where you aim.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup. When talking about this stuff, I always think of Jurcina – absolute bomb of a shot, but what good is it if it takes forever-and-a-day to release, by which time defenders shinpads just gobble it up?
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Yeah, great example. Compare him to Brian Rafalski, not much of a shot, but he seems to always get it through. Rafalski and Niedermayer are two great examples of guys that get it done with wrist shots from the point. The big booming shot is sexy, but it’s not always the most effective way to go.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Even compare it to Karl Alzner who’s just as happy to adjust his sites and put a puck off the end boards as he is to get it on net – no one’s going to shoot it through a defender, and it’s so much more important to get a puck deep than to give up a possible rush the other way because you think you can.
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I don’t even care about blocks. To me, it starts and ends with mobility. The number one thing BB can do to keep Green healthier is pair him with a D that can skate and play with the puck a little bit. Hamrlik has that potential, Hannan doesn’t. We’ll see if it works out but Hamrlik’s puck/skating skills are enough to make me happier that we have him than any of the S@H guys that have two left hands.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 15, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Based upon GMGM’s comments I think he went after Hamrlik because he could move the luck better without sacrificing the solid defense of someone like Hannan. I think GMGM was traumatized by the loss to injury of all puck moving defensemen in the TB series.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 15, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
From Lambert:
Hell, the Caps brought in five-years-older Roman Hamrlik at 3.5 times the money and twice the years, even if they don’t exactly need help filling the goal on the power play.
Look at it this way: for teams like the Caps who score goals by the boatload, doesn’t it make more sense to have a guy like Hannan who can prevent goals, rather than someone who helps create them?I think that’s a little myopic. Do they need Hamrlik on the PP? With Green and Wideman and perhaps Carlson ahead of him for minutes there, no, not really. But the assertion that Hamrlik helps to create goals and not prevent them is a bit off (and not only in the “a goal created equals a goal prevented” kind of way). The Caps struggled to move the puck out of their zone and up ice last year, and having a guy who’s more skilled there actually is going to help them prevent goals, to say nothing of the positive impact we all believe he will have on Mike Green’s game.
Is Roman Hamrlik worth 3.5 Scott Hannans this coming season? Maybe, maybe not. But he does fit a need that the Caps identified in a way in which Hannan doesn’t.
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At the very least, he’s replacing what Tom Poti does (or did) at a higher level.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Roman Hamrlik’s Failed Clearing Attempt is a better band name than Tom Poti’s Failed Clearing Attempt. I agree with your assertion.
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by sydtron on Aug 15, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Isn’t Hamrlik also a left handed shooter.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 15, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
True. But I was thinking more in terms of changing up the look of the PP?
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Aug 15, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
And GMGM was clearly concerned about how beaten up our puck moving D were last year in the second round. More depth there can’t hurt.
And again, Hannan and Hamrlik aren’t apples to apples because we don’t know what contracts were in front of them on the same day.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 15, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right. Hannan’s signing at the end of the period for pretty much the best he could get.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. It sounds like he was holding out for term, but couldn’t get it. Then it came down to “do you want to be in the NHL or not this year?” Obviously he did. He couldn’t take a year off because at his age one season on the sideline probably means he’s done forever.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
And I guess he didn’t want to take the Sopel Wagon to Siberia.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Hannan doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy that wants to do that (Captain Obvious). I thought he was going to look to get to one of the CA teams, but I guess he wasn’t willing to take the pay cuts they were willing to give him. I thought for sure there was going to be room on the ANA or SJS blue line for him.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Caps’ problem last half of last year and the playoffs wasn’t preventing goals — it was getting the puck up ice and scoring them.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 15, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And Hannan wasn’t ready to sign when the other guys were. It’s not apples to apples. Sure, I bet lots of teams would have signed him on the 1 million dollar deal on July 1, but he wouldn’t. He overplayed his hand, watched all his potential suitors fill their needs, and then had to settle for less money and term. I know Scott Hannan is a really defensive D, but he didn’t need to hammer it home by playing the FA market like he was a goalie.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Buy or sell Vingan’s assertion that Schultz will be rotating nacho duty with Erskine? I’d rather play a solid 25 year old defensive defenseman every game, and keep the 37 year old (Hamrlik) fresh for later in the season.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Schultz’s NCC/60 IS way down.
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by The Ghost of Bebop on Aug 15, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I tend to think it’s a bit of a false dichotomy in that the Caps had 8 D last year who played more than 20 games (and that doesn’t count Wideman). The year before, that number was 10 (and didn’t include Corvo). The year before that, 8. Point being, they’re not going to be alternating between two guys – everyone’s going to get plenty of ice, in all likelihood.
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I’ll sell, but I’m with J.P.
People will get hurt, Erskine will play (as well as at least one guy from HER) on a pretty regular basis. But if our top 7 are all healthy, I don’t see Erskine taking the ice over Schultz.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Oh absolutely injuries throw everything out the window. But should injuries not be a part of it (and of course this is clearly hypothetical), would you rest Schultz more often than Hamrlik during the season?
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
No, I’d draw up the organizational D chart and then play the healthiest 6 guys every game. I wouldn’t over-think it. I would manage minutes in-game, as opposed to sitting guys for entire games. Don’t give Hamrlik 25 minutes a game, or 0.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 15, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would manage minutes in-game
Ludicrous. What’s next, “giving a few line combos a chance to gel”?
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by apk3000 on Aug 15, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
The only reason Erskine had as much ice time as he did last year was because of injuries. He is and should be the odd man out. (Which is surprising that McPhee signed him for a 2-year extension.) It’s not Schultz vs Erskine; it’s the poor decision to re-sign Erskine vs. re-signing Hannan.
It was never a decision to re-sign Erskine v. Hannan. The Erskine deal was done before Hannan was even a thought. And, just like no team (cough PHI cough) could have predicted Vokoun signing for 1.5, there was no way to predict Hannan signing at 1 (and maybe he wouldn’t even sign back in DC anyway).
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Oh, I know that it wasn’t directly Erskine vs Hannan. But McPhee signing him set a bit of a domino effect going. Poti, Erskine, Sloan, DJ King were all extended when they really didn’t need to be.
Right, you know I’ve harped on that. This just isn’t the time to make that case, I don’t think.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Sell. I think Erskine sits most games unless there is an injury.
My mind is all twtisted like a peanut.
Hold. Bruce specifically singled Ersk out as impressing last year.
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I still don’t think he’d put him in over Schultz. Or any other of the top 6 dmen.
My mind is all twtisted like a peanut.
At least not on a regular basis. Oisk will play if someone’s injured. Or he’ll play if a guy needs a “rest” or is “dinged up”. Given the track record for defensemen for being hurt, he’ll get plenty of playing time.
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This one?
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
by bagace on Aug 15, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good roundup by Litter Box Cats. Based on their evaluations, here are the final off-season standings:
1. Florida-Noticeably Better (gained 53 goals)
1A. Washington- Noticeably Better (gained 3 goals)
3. Tampa-Marginally Worse (lost 17 goals)
4. Carolina-Worse (lost 18 goals)
5. Winnipeg-Worse (lost 27 goals)
It’s hard to argue with Florida having the best off-season based on goals gained, but I would argue the Caps did a better job based on the positions they filled and the caliber of guys they brought in. More to the point, every guy the Caps brought in was an upgrade over the guy they replaced and you can’t say that for Florida. I’d also put Tampa in the Worse category based on the quality of the players they lost and what they had at stake going into this season. They were basically a goal away from getting to the Finals and instead of adding players that could push them to the next level, they let their playoff hero (Bergenheim) leave for nothing along with an important veteran in Gagne. And they’re rolling the dice with a 42-year old Roloson again and only have Mattieu Garon as a back-up. That’s more than a marginal drop-off.
Also, this list changes if you take the salary cap into account. FLA had to add a lot of guys because they needed to reach the floor, right?
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Aug 15, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s a very good point. To put it another way: The Caps upgraded by replacing Matt Bradley with someone better. The Panthers upgraded by replacing someone with Matt Bradley.
"Fais gros comme moi!" - Alex Ovechkin
by Gould Old Days on Aug 15, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
probably my ill-timed humor related to the improbabilty of OV scoring 50 goals/ BB comments concerning his “mean as a bear” disposition coming into training camp… sorry for the lack of subject line
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions
sorry for the lack of subject line
No worries – no one’s expected to know all of the common practices of the community upon arrival. Welcome!
(Also, you can reply directly to comments rather than at the bottom of the comments by hitting reply to the comment to which you’re replying…)
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I disagree about never seeing Frazee again, didn’t he get an invite to rookie camp?
I'm on the twitters.
Currently Netflixing: Twin Peaks
"Hope, in reality, is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man"
Speaking of Bears, Hershey/Harrisburg is once again the #1 Minor League market in the US, based on “a passionate fan base, tenured clubs and a stable economy,” though I’m sure some at the WaPo will say it’s all due to the Strasburg effect.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Well, Bryce Harper is there…
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve never been to a Senators game (although I will go at some point), but man, the way fans turn out for the Bears, it doesn’t surprise me. And Giant Center is a really nice building, except the seats are really, really small for an Arena that I think is only about 10 years old.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Alright, so who’s in and who’s out in the Eastern Conference playoffs next April?
Here’s what I’ve got:
Definitely in – Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington
Likely in – Buffalo, NYR, Tampa, Philly
Bubble – Jersey, Montreal
Likely out – Carolina
Out – Florida, Atlantapeg, Islanders, Ottawa, Toronto
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I think NJD is going to be tough if they stay healthy. I think BUF, NJD, NYR, MON are going to fight over 3 spots.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, I think Jersey is likely in, too. Meant to have them there. They’re my eighth team – MTL is out.
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I’m selling on Jersey. I don’t like what I see from that D Corps. I think I’d bump them in favor of Toronto.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
We’ll see. The D is definitely suspect, but given how well they played last year with a real coach, I think it’s hard to count them out. You could see natural improvement from some of the younger D, Volchenkov and Salvador could be healthier (though I wouldn’t really bank on it) and Larsson is almost certainly going to be on the NHL roster (though it’s not wise to bank too hard on an 18 year old rookie, I don’t think).
With good coaching and better health I think that team is going to be competitive.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Is Larsson coming over this season? I thought I had read that he’s spending another year in the SEL.
I hadn’t read anything. I just saw NJD signed him and assumed he’d be over. He already has 3 SEL seasons, I’m not sure he has much to learn there hockey-wise. Maybe he takes a year for maturity/get his shit together reasons, but I think he’s ready to start playing in the NHL.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Imagine the talent you need to be playing in the SEL at 15. (Or the KHL at 16.)
What do you think guys like Ovechkin or Larsson would do in the QMJHL as an 18-year-old?
On paper I have MTL out, especially if Price regresses at all, but they always seem to be more than the sum of their parts. They won’t be an easy out, that’s for sure.
BUF being as good as they look on paper would be helpful towards keeping MTL out. More talent in that division means fewer easy points.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Buffalo seems to yo-yo between playing as well as they should, and under-performing. And since they under-performed last season (at least compared to what was on paper), I believe that means they’ll be pushing to win the Northeast.
now watch them flame out in spectacular fashion.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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On the list of “teams I hope flame out horribly” Buffalo is number two after Philadelphia.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope Philly blows it just so we can all point and laugh.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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I’d like to turn “Fuck the Flyers” into the new “Fuck Clemson”
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
NJ has to have the oldest goaltending tandem in the league, 39 (Brodeur) and 38 (Hedburg). I think the biggest question for them is can both guys stay healthy all year and if not who comes through for them.
according to the Goalie Guild here are their prospects and rankings
56 MAXIME CLERMON
60 KEITH KINKAID
65 JEFF FRAZEE
67 SCOTT WEDGEWOOD
Obviously anything can happen with goalies but that’s not exactly a warm/fuzzy situation behind two guys pushing 40.
by Beakers Lab on Aug 15, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh, there are plenty of FA goalies all the time that can get the job done. I’m sure Lou’s not too worried about his organization’s lack of depth there.
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but they are free agents for a reason, resting your playoff push on the likes of a journeyman like Michael Leighton….damn it fine you have a point but I’m still a bit surprised they have no high prospects in the pipeline given the age of Brodeur.
by Beakers Lab on Aug 15, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, they don’t have any obvious long-term solutions there, but look at all the teams near the top that have multiple guys, some with entrenched NHLers already – there are more goalies than slots, even among prospects.
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Exactly, Lou can find a short-term fix and if he drafts ~1 per year in the mid rounds there’s a good chance a long(ish) term solution pans out at some point. I’m sure he wouldn’t want to have to give up too much in a trade for a young G, but he has to be aware that there are guys out there that will be available.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I guess I just see it as a bit risky heading into the season with two old goalies and nobody really ready to step in if/when they get injured. Now maybe they both stay healthy all season and it’s a moot point but I think if you put the over/under on # of goalies getting 10+ games for the Devils this year at 2 I’d bet the over in a big way.
by Beakers Lab on Aug 15, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it’s risky, but the way it works now every team has risk somewhere. Is it risky for the Caps to have one proven scoring line C?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
very true I guess it’s all about where are you willing to accept the risk for your team.
by Beakers Lab on Aug 15, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I’d move Toronto up with Carolina; I see them as fighting for 9-11 rather than 13-15, with a shot at the playoffs. I may still have the Flyers as “Definitely In” as well, but I guess there’s so much uncertainty there that it’s hard to completely buy in to their success. And with Parise back I think you see NJD return to the playoffs.
Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.
So when do we get this year’s “Why the Canes will defeat the Capitals in the quest for the SE Division Title based on mangled line pairing goals expected” post from CC?
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Aug 15, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
And on that you’re willing to wager…
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My soul!
I just think that they’ve made just enough moves, gotten rid of just enough bad players, and matured enough to improve.
From 6-10 in the East is all pretty interchangeable.
Yeah, I disagree. I can see them being in the mix with Carolina and maybe Montreal, but I think it’s in that 9-11 range.
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But I think that we’ve seen that the addition of the OTL/SOL point has changed everything, and that the 9th or 10th or 11th best team in the conference sneaks in.
Huh? I mean the 9-11 range in points. If they’re in that range, I put the odds of them making the playoffs at roughly 0.0%.
I get your point, but I think there’s a tier and a fall-off after 8 that is big enough that a few OTLs or SO W’s won’t change it. For example, last year the dropoff from 9 to 10 in the east was six points. From 10 to 11 in the West was seven. Even with parity, tiers can exist.
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Well, I suppose I do, more or less, but I still think there’s a drop-off that they’re on the wrong side of.
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I think they are too. Depends on if Reimer turns back into a pumpkin or not.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the Argonauts are probably a long shot, but that’s OT. Let’s take it back to hockey.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 15, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I really can’t peg Florida down. I keep thinking of Montreal a few years ago when they essentially did the same thing—completely remake their roster with a bunch of underwhelming veterans. They’re going to have some massive chemistry issues early on, and it’ll come down to how quickly and how well the coaches find it..
Definitely In—Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Tampa
Likely In—Philly, NYR, Buffalo
Bubble—Montreal, Carolina, Florida
Likely Out—New Jersey
Out—Ottawa, NYI, Toronto, Winnipeg
Surprised to see so many people down on Jersey given their second half last year. Obviously that wasn’t a sustainable pace for 82 games, but it gave me everything I needed to see to have them as a likely playoff team.
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I just look at that roster, and I look at the Leafs roster, and I like the latter better.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with Florida is that we really don’t know how good they’ll be. Right now, they’re just a collection of players, some underperforming, some decent, and simply one big chemistry experiment. Montreal did the same thing a couple of seasons ago and managed to make the playoffs…and beat the Capitals and Penguins.
Not arguing that Florida’s going to do the same; just pointing out that it’s hard to say Florida is better or worse than any team right now.
And that was without Parise for essentially the entire season.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 15, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Their second half was due to the right coach for that team…a coach who is no longer there. I like Peter DeBoer, but I think he’s working with a stacked deck.
Getting back Parise should help, but we won’t know how effective he’ll be coming back from injury. Even if he is, they’re pretty close to a one-line team with a weakening blueline. My main concern with them is that Brodeur made noise recently about the Devils needing to get serious about young goaltending and wanting to be a mentor. My feeling is that Brodeur is finally starting to feel his age, and the Devils won’t be able to lean on him as they have. He had only 53 starts last season and finished with a .903 SAV and a 2.45 GAA.
They have at least two legit lines
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Aug 15, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Division winners: Pitt, Boston, Wash
Seeds 4-8: Tampa, Buffalo, NYR, Philly, Jersey
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Aug 15, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m giving NJ a boost if they can have a year with both Kovy and Parise. And DeBoer is a defense-oriented coach, and based on what he was able to do with Florida’s defense, he should be able to get at least that from the Devil’s D.
Definitely in – Pittsburgh, Washington, New Jersey
Likely in – Boston, Tampa, Rangers,
Bubble – Buffalo, Philly, Montreal
Likely Out: Islanders, Toronto, Carolina
Out: Ottawa, Florida, Atlantapeg
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
In the playoffs: Pitt, Wsh, Bos, Philly, TBL, Car, Buff, NJD
Missed be a hair: NYR, Montreal
Not really close: Fla, Winni, NYI, Ott, Tor.
Yeah I’m predicting some wild cards / craziness to happen for 3 SE div teams to make it to the prom.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
I cannot see the Rangers missing the playoffs. I think they’ll be somewhere in the bottom 4 seeds but I really don’t see them outside the top 8.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Aug 15, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
They’ve been alternating barely making the playoffs and missing it for the last 3 seasons, and I’m half predicting a Kovy-styled backfire on their newest circumvented Rag.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
I kind of hope so. Remember when the Rags would buy all those high priced free agents and then just miss the playoffs? I loved how the attitude was “Draft and develop? Pssssssh! That’s for everyone else!”
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Don't shoot me for asking this!
Most hockey fans that i talk to at work (BUF fans) blame the caps success and consistent playoff appearences on their belonging to the south east division… they say we scrape easy points off of week division teams like atlanta and florida… many have suggested that the caps would not fare as well if they were in the same division as PEN… comments/ ammo for refuting these accusations?
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions
Depends how you measure “success.” As for playoff appearances, I think that if you put this team in any division in the league, they’d be in the playoffs without trying. Would they be President’s Trophy winners or #1 in the Eastern Conference? Maybe they wouldn’t have, but they wouldn’t be too far down. Check out the Northeast division last year—not very strong. Look at the SE last year: Atlanta started strong, Tampa almost made it to the finals, Carolina always plays strong against the Caps, and FLA was the only bottom-dweller.
I caved to peer pressure and finally added an avatar. Is it October yet?
Caps were 13-3-4 vs. the Atlantic last season, 13-4-3 vs. the NE and 14-7-3 vs the SE. Looks like they did just fine.
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by apk3000 on Aug 15, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
they resort to sample size… esp when talking about western conference opponents
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Then they’re moving the goalposts. You can look at other previous years. In the Boudreau era, the Caps have played well against the rest of the Eastern conference and frankly, the Western Conference doesn’t even matter. Like the Caps are going to be moved to the Pacific? Plus you can use the same sample size argument to dismiss the Western Conference from the equation.
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They’re buff fans? The sabres last season wouldn’t of made the playoffs at all and probably of been in bottom around 10-12th place in the west based on my assumption of how their division was weak and I’d rank the team about as good as Min / StL.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Easiest rebuttal is to direct them to this page.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
by bagace on Aug 15, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Alternatively, you could tell them to eat a fucking porcupine.
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I like that better.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
___
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
The difference in the schedules between the Caps and, say, Pittsburgh is eight games against Tampa, Florida, Winnipeg and Carolina vs. Philly, Jersey and the two NY teams. They’re really going to make an argument based upon 1/10th of the schedule that is perceived as somewhat easier?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
they have pointed out that their are no bottom dweller teams in the atlantic… and that 1/10th of a season.. is free points regardless
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
except the islanders… lol
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
And how badly the Devils did the first half of last season, and the Rags barely make the prom every other season.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
the Islanders aren’t a bottom dweller? New Jersey wasn’t a bottom dweller for 75% of the season this past year? Forgive me, but your co-workers don’t exactly seem all that bright when it comes to hockey.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
NJD was only a bottom dweller until Xmas. After the coaching change they were competitive.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah they went from a 60 point estimate to 80 by remembering they’re the new jersey devils.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Of course, because the Isles and Devils weren’t shit last year. And the Caps didn’t beat an Atlantic Team division in the playoffs.
My advice: get new friends. Or find a different subject to talk about.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
new friends preferably… but hockey isn’t big here in louisiana
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
What happened to the Bossier-Shreveport Mudbugs?
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
they folded…
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
The Mudbugs won the Ray Miron President’s Cup last season in a 7-game series with the Colorado Eagles, but would cease operations two weeks later.
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Ouch. Sorry to hear that.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I live in Bossier and am in the Air Force at Barksale AFB… Ive played pickup roller hockey a few times here…
Shoot puck, score goal, win game.
by humanhockeypuck on Aug 15, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Well another Japers’ Rink regular just moved down to Shreveport. He found a men’s ice hockey league, but we’ll see if it survives the MudBugs collapse.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
According to the guy who runs the league it is still in tact. I hope he’s right, or else I shipped my hockey equipment down here for nothing.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Aug 15, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So we should discount Vancouver’s performance because they were in a division with no other playoff teams, along with the flusterclucks otherwise referred to as EDM and COL?
no no no, they’re Canadian and have to work tirelessly every single day to overcome Gary Bettman’s evil plot to destroy hockey in Canada. They should be praised for not letting The Man get them down.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Personally, I don’t think they should be discounted, because they were an amazing team last year. Also, they took the President’s trophy by a wide margin in a very tight WC competition last year. Did they get some free points? Yes. Would they still have been #1 in the conference? Probably. Would they still have progressed to the finals? Absolutely.
And, yes I know that was probably a rhetorical question, but I feel for humanhockeypuck as I have a lot of non-Caps-fan friends as well.
I caved to peer pressure and finally added an avatar. Is it October yet?
Do Stanley Cups count when comparing divisions?
"You just have a sense," Holland says. "The type of player you want, the type of situation you reference for your next game, you see it."
by Acer Jonesy's Laughker on Aug 15, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
New content on the front page from John Walton’s appearance on Japers’ Rink Radio (which, if you haven’t given it a listen, do so over lunch today, won’t you?).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Post worth reading from Silver Seven Sens.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I see no reason for there to be fighting in the NHL. None.
Not to say that I don’t like a good bout, but if it were to leave the game, I wouldn’t miss it.
I’m thinking the same thing myself. The worst is the clowns who start fights after legit, clean checks.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely.
And, frankly, if the NHL is really interested in cutting down on head injuries, why is fighting allowed at all?
Can anyone who watches college or European hockey speak to how the strict rules against fighting affect other aspects of the game? Is there more dirty stickwork or retaliatory hitting as a result? That’d be my only concern with an outright ban on fights.
"Now wait a minute. This is just purely a social call. You know, just two adults getting a stew on, man."
by The Ghost of Bebop on Aug 15, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
This is related to the only pro- argument I can see (other than the perception that it’s popular), but I’ve gotta believe that if the League was serious about cracking down on the stuff that is supposedly now handled via “frontier justice,” they could keep it out of the game without the goons’ help (as if they really deter the non-pugilism violence anyway).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
But would the game have any ES play left? How long would it take?
As fighting is currently used, it’s dumb. But I think there is merit in how it should be used.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Players would learn quick enough, you’d think, if you have consistent enforcement… so yeah, never.
But I’d favor supplemental discipline to handle the stuff I’m talking about. I know we’ve talked about if before, but does having a goon deter a Matt Cooke or a Steve Ott? Of course not. They do what they do and then, on the rare occasion that they’re taken to task, they answer (or turtle), but it doesn’t stop them from their next dangerous hit, does it?
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Is the answer to the “pest” problem as simple as taking away the instigator rule?
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope. Look, if Cooke lays out some guy with a questionable hit a player comes over to him and challenges him to a fight and they go, there’s not going to be an instigator penalty called.
I don’t think so. I think that just escalates things. The answer to the “pest” problem is to sit the guy for a long time when he fucks up.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Right, but that’s a problem with the application of the instigator.
I think Morrow should be able to beat Brown’s ass when Brown runs Ribeiro. That’s the proper role of fighting, IMO.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Never happens. Ever. And for every time it does, there are a hundred unnecessary fights.
Instead, Brown runs Ribeiro and someone on the Stars runs Kopitar (I assume you’re talking Dustin Brown… I don’t remember the specific incident to which you’re referring). Mutually assured destruction.
Of course, without fighting, that happens anyway – since you can’t retaliate to a questionable hit with fists, you do it with sticks and knees and fourth-liners… unless the League is serious about getting it out of the game. No easy answer here.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It’s a really, really complex question. You’d alienate a seriously large portion of the fanbase if you just got rid of it.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think so.
Anyway, those are the same type of fans who only watch baseball for the home runs or basketball for the dunks.
But how many of them are there, and can the NHL afford to alienate them? Just thinking monetarily. Maybe with rule changes they can gradually take it out, but I don’t think the league would just remove all fighting overnight.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
But they’re still people that go to games and buy merchandise and beer and concessions. You can’t, especially in this day and age, afford to really alienate completely ANY “type” of fan no matter how repugnant to you they may be.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember the NBA got the rep years ago as being a “thug” league. They’ve been trying ever since to get the white people scared off by that to return, without much success.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d wager that the loss of that “type” would be far more than offset by people who would now go to the games with their kids, etc. (and, not for nothing, it’d be more attractive to advertisers).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
So it’d be a lot like when the WWE segued out of the “Attitude” Era into a TVY7 Era? Young males are the most coveted demo in advertising. They’re the lifeblood of sports leagues.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t follow wrestling, so I don’t know, but when the NHL makes a big deal about it’s partnership with Phineas & Ferb, I think it’s a pretty clear sign that they’re not solely focused on competing with the UFC crowd.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
There’s also the Guardian Project.
They’ve got to just decide what league they want to be. It’s borderline hypocritical to keep emphasizing fighting and huge hits with one hand and selling toys to children with the other hand.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
(ethical considerations about advertising to children aside).
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course (we all know that advertising to children should be far more subtle and involve cartoon characters with genitalia for faces advertising tobacco products).
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WE HAD JOE CAMEL IN MY DAY AND I TURNED OUT GREAT! THESE KIDS TODAY ARE BABIED!
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
as a parent of young kids I whole-heatedly approve of the Phineas & Ferb partnership. my daughters were ecstatic when they saw this shirt
Why is it repugnant to like fighting? Or do you just mean people that only watch for the fights? What if some fans start that way and then later develop an appreciation of the game and become “real” fans?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
by Rob Parker on Aug 15, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not sure you would. Most of the pro-fighting folks are pro-hockey first, pro-fighting second. Would they really leave the sport? Dunno.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
They’d counter by saying without fighting, it’s not really “hockey”.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
And I’d counter by not giving a shit.
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That’s my point though. I’m not sure the NHL can afford to intentionally drive away fans, especially when they just signed a giant TV deal, and the league clearly uses it’s “toughness” as a big selling point.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think the NHL loses toughness by losing fighting, but obviously that “type” would call me a big pussy and whatnot, so that talking point is certainly at the ready.
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Aren’t you just changing the baseline? I know that seeing it for 6 months consistently might not be realistic, but the hockey from mid-April to June is what we all want to get to, no?
/kind of skimming this and not reading it all the way through
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by Bald Pollack on Aug 15, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Pro-Fighting
Please forgive this admittedly far-from-perfect analogy, but I’m sure an assistant or secretary would LOVE to have the boss’s job, but doesn’t quite have the necessary skill-set so settles for the one he/she has. Sure, answering phones, typing, staring at a screen, and perhaps not receiving deserved recognition for 40 hours a week – the dirty work – might suck, and might not be good for your finger muscles, vision, and general sunny disposition, but it pays the bills. This person could leave at any time. Or the position could no longer exist. But the dirty work will always be theirs should they choose to stay.
Isn’t it better to have a choice?
So the argument is that it’s gonna save a handful of jobs that could otherwise go to skill players and improve the quality of the game?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
No, I guess I was speaking more to the “figher’s choice” aspect of the article.
A simple counter-argument to banning fighting could be, “Well, these are grown men, and they’re choosing to fight. No one’s forcing them to do so.” Which misses the point, demonstrates flawed reasoning, and—I would argue—is incorrect, in a lot of cases.
I still believe it’s a choice, even after reading his argument.
Gotcha. Yeah, these guys have chosen to take their lumps to make a living. No argument there. But I do think it misses the point – who cares? Does having that aspect in the game help or hurt the sport? That’s all I care about.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
And I also think that the fact that there are a significant number of fighters in the league now who, if cut, would not be missed. This isn’t Hendricks dropping his gloves, because he can do other things. But if King was no longer on the Capitals, would it effect the team in any noticeable way?
There are very few players any more like Marty McSorely, who would fight but could also score. (Of course, that career didn’t end very well, did it?)
More importantly, with King and his like in the game, Hendricks almost wasn’t in the NHL. I’d prefer a League in which Hendricks has a job to one in which King does any day.
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by J.P. on Aug 15, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Hockey is the only major sport where shoving your hand in someone’s face and knocking him to the ground after the whistle and then telling him to go fuck himself will end in, at most, a 2 minute penalty and at the very least, an escort back to the bench. That’s part of what makes hockey, and especially the playoffs, so great.
How can you possibly eliminate fighting but condone those after the whistle scrums? Because I sure as hell don’t want to lose those scrums. The slope is too slippery for my liking.
Really? Those scrums add a lot to the game other than the time it takes to finish? I could do without ‘em, personally. A little chippiness is fine – catch the guy clean next shift or whatever – but if it goes too far, two minutes. I don’t see that hurting the game.
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(I’m also in favor of eliminating place kickers and punters in football…)
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 15, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Less staged fights please. But I’m all for retaliation against the Matt Cooke’s of the league by any means.
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When’s the last time you actually saw Cooke taken to task for something? When’s the last time it deterred his next horseshit play?
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Related to that, it’s not much of a “deterrent” when your dirty play in a 9-3 inspires your organization to hold a “viewing party” of said game.
The league should really step in and kill that idea.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, I kind of agree with Wysh on this one – it’s galvanized a fanbase that needed it (and the “they shouldn’t be allowed to celebrate that trash” backlash further galvanizes it).
I’d be embarrassed if the Caps held a viewing party to watch Hunter-on-Turgeon. But this wasn’t that, Gillies’ actions notwithstanding.
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a) then
b) never, in fact it caused the team to be punished and moved to Winnipeg
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by sydtron on Aug 15, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
But that was April 2010.
On February 9, 2011, Cooke was given a four-game suspension for a hit from behind on Columbus Blue Jackets’ defenseman Fedor Tyutin.20 On March 21, Cooke was suspended for the final ten games of the Penguins regular season schedule as well as the first round of the 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs stemming from an elbow to the head of New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh.21 The suspension was the longest of Cooke’s career and was supported by the Pittsburgh Penguin management.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Aug 15, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
An island is about to be flooded and the scorpion goes up to the frog and asks if he can climb on his back and be taken to the mainland. The frog says, “I can’t do that. As soon as you get on me, you’ll sting me and I’ll die.” In reply, the scorpion says with all sincerity, “Why would I do that? If I kill you, I’ll drown. I promise I’ll behave.” The frog agrees and, of course, half way across the river, the scorpion stings him. As the frog is sinking beneath the water, he turns to the scorpion and says, “Why did you do that. Now we’re both going to die.” And the scorpion replies," Why are you so surprised? You knew what I was when you agreed to let me climb on you."
Insert Bettman for the frog and Cooke for the scorpion and that pretty much sums up how the league deals with MC.
Nicky punched Cooke in the face for kneeing Ovie last season. Did Ovie go after him as well, I can’t recall? It was more of a scrum but Cooke didn’t get away with hitting Ovie’s knee with no response at all. I doubt it deterred him from doing something similar to another star but maybe it would stop him from messing with Ovie for a while? Or not. Hard to say with Cooke, I’ll guess we’ll see how he acts now after his suspension.
Don’t recall Nicky giving him a facewash. I do recall Brads going up to him asking him to go, but Cooke refusing.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Yep, Preceeded by a slash by Schultz as Cooke skated by.
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, AO is throwing punches during that scrum.
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d give him the cross-check, but the punch looks more like a shove by Nicky. The rest is just scrum stuff. Cooke’s refusal to dance with Brads was more telling for me.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
I don’t know where I’m going with this, but I’m just saying I wouldn’t have much of a problem with someone punching Cooke in the face if he took a cheapshot, regardless of whether he wanted to engage or not.
That said, I see the obvious problems with such thinking, it would escalate and most likely people would be “taken to task” for perceived cheapshots that weren’t really cheapshots at all. I’m fully aware I’m letting my disdain towards Cooke get the best of me.
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
In other words, I fully endorse this sort of fight:
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Mixed in with all the Crosby/concussion news reports today was this piece by ESPN, which included this blurb:
Crosby, 24, has not played since Jan. 5 following back-to-back blows to the head. The first was suffered when then-Washington Capitals forward David Steckel clipped the former NHL scoring champion during the Winter Classic at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on New Year’s Day. Then, during the Penguins’ next game, Crosby was slammed into the end boards by Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman.I’d like to say “Bravo” to the author for the characterization of the two incidents, but unfortunately it’s just credited to “ESPN.com news services”
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Well done… though I’m mildly disappointed in that it deprived me of the opportunity to use the Steckel “Not this shit again” image.
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you’ll get your chance soon enough
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by Gould Old Days on Aug 15, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I even find that description to be too generous.
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Crosby, 24, has not played since Jan. 5 following back-to-back blows to the head. The first was suffered when then-Washington Capitals forward David Steckel was clipped by the former NHL scoring champion during the Winter Classic at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on New Year’s Day. Then, during the Penguins’ next game, Crosby was slammed into the end boards by Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman.
FTFY
by _Skullduggery_ on Aug 15, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He was shaken up at the end of the Jan. 1 Winter Classic in Pittsburgh after being sideswiped by Washington’s David Steckel. He finished that game and played the next in Tampa Bay on Jan. 5, when he was hit into the boards by the Lightning’s Victor Hedman. Crosby finished that game as well, but he did not return for the rest of the season.
“Sideswiped” instead of “clipped”
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it so…….truthful. I’m speechless.
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Regarding Neil’s estimate in CI for Semin new season:
He will score 26 goals — making it the sixth consecutive season in which he finishes above 25 in that category — but only eight will come on the power play. He’ll get 31 assists and finish with just 57 points in 70 games. His shooting percentage will be an above-average 12 percent.
I am not sure I agree 100% with Neil. He talks about how wingers have a drop off in scoring average goals/game when they are 27 and presents a lot of graphs on that. I am curious if their shooting percentage drops off as well or they just take less shots. Semin has been rather consistent in his shooting percentage since he returned from Russia post lockout: 15.6% (243 shots), 14.1% (185), 15.2% (223), 14.4% (278), 14.3% (196). Even last year when everyone else was down, Sasha was still consistent in his shooting percentage. I am not sure that I understand how he is going to decline to 12% and have only 26 goals just based purely on his age. Semin had less shots last season (196) compared to all other seasons except one, which was also the other season with his lowest goal total (26 goals in 2007-08 with 185 shots).
To me it seems realistic that if Semin has more shots next season, he’ll have more goals than this season. I don’t know if he’ll have more shots next season though. I would be interested for Neil to create a graph of shooting percentage by age for these comparable wingers he used for his analysis.
by vtcapsfan99 on Aug 15, 2011 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I’m just wondering. Has Neil done enough of these forecasts that we actually can measure how accurate his predictions truly are? In other words, are there any from the summer of 2010? If I knew what his success rate was, I could better gauge how much stock to put into his numbers. Not sniping, but I am curious.
Small sample size on Neil’s predictions.
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Aug 15, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
On the record: At the end of the regular season, Neil looked back at his predictions.
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Granted, it’s been typical for wingers’ productivity to go downward. Of course, another factor in determining how many goals Semin scores will be dependent on his health. He has missed 10-20 games per year, due to health issues, which have certainly depressed his productivity.
His Power Play total for next year will probably depend on some degree to how the team’s power play performs. Last year was a down year in that department for the team in general. I’m sure a change in strategy will probably happen to improve that department.
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I’d rate Buffalo, Florida, Vancouver, and Minnesota as the tops.
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by Steckel Me Elmo on Aug 15, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree on Florida and Minnesota.
I also like Calgary, Ottawa, Boston and LA.
I’m tempted to like Columbus, but that’s a bit out there, isn’t it?
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Rick Rypien found dead
NHL enforcer Rick Rypien (ex-Nucks, signed with Jets in off-season) found dead at home at 27. Police saying death is not considered suspicious and is being treated as a sudden death.
When I'm mourning the death of a loved one, the first thing I do is read Roger Ebert's Tweets.
The updated report is that it’s an apparent suicide.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Link here
http://www.news1130.com/sports/article/264538—former-canuck-rick-rypien-found-dead#.TknU8RJ0hls.twitter
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
What I found:
UPDATE (9:51pm EST): News1130 in Vancouver also reported on Monday night that the cause of Rypien’s death was suicide.
(I’ve been trying to look for a good, reliable source for that news.)
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
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