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Thursday Caps Clips

Anton Gustafsson, via Caps in Pictures

Your savory breakfast links:

  • Just three years after drafting him, the Caps are severing ties with 2008 first round pick Anton Gustafsson. [WashTimes (Whyno), CI (Carrera)]
  • Reasonable minds can differ as to when this team's prime years to compete start (or started), but most everyone would agree that it's go-time now. [Peerless]
  • Joel Ward called in to The Sports Reporters yesterday. [ESPN 980 (audio)]
  • Where Ward and the other new guys fit in. [RLD Hockey]
  • If you're Mathieu Perreault's agent among those who think that the NHL's "takeaway" stat has any relevance, this one's for you. [TSN (Cullen)]
  • John Carlson did some good yesterday. [Capitals Overtime]
  • Dmitry Orlov speaks... on speaking. [RMNB]
  • Finally, happy 30th birthday to Timo Helbling.

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Comments

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The heat seems to be drying up topics. Make one wonder what we’ll be writing about in August…

“If a Cap was an ice-cream flavor, what would he be?”

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Jul 21, 2011 6:44 AM EDT reply actions  

You jest…

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I had completely forgotten about that posting… great stuff! :)

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Im thinking after last season alot of them would change…maybe time to revisit…

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by Cap-O-Vens on Jul 21, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I sense a (probably unfair) Varlamov :: Coors Light comparison if that happens.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

by skyywise on Jul 21, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Im also thinking Stecks = Mad Dog 20/20 cause once it hits you your head doesnt stop spinning.

Check out a new social network, Hockey Connect, a place for coaches, players, family and fans to share strategies and experiences.

by Cap-O-Vens on Jul 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Other Score Effect: Making Your Own Narrative

Instead, a legitimately elite player, like Alexander Ovechkin, who suffers from poor luck, like Alexander Ovechkin this past season, is talked about as though he’s lost his game- “he’s not the same player”. We see that he “only” scored 32 goals, and don’t look at the real play on ice. His (lack of) scoring makes him look no longer elite.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

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by NGreenberg on Jul 21, 2011 7:14 AM EDT reply actions  

Right, so we look at underlying statistics and not just goals and… he’s not the same player. At least he wasn’t last year (though I have an awfully hard time believing he’s no longer elite). Granted, we’re in the weeds in analyzing these guys and at the 30,000-foot national level “he only scored 32 goals” means he’s not the same player, but I’m not sure Ovechkin is the best example to make the point.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

And I’m sure you would agree that he did not look as dominant as he once did, in addition to what the fancy stats say.

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by fat_daddyo on Jul 21, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

And what kills me is when “I follow advanced stats, but I also follow the game and anyone who watches the game would know that your conclusion here is dead wrong — it’s a howler — so you’d better go back and check your methodology” draws a response as though you’d said what is quoted there.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right, they just re-cast the critique as though you said what they want you to have said. Much easier that way.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you that I’m generally right about most things, and it was very kind of you to say it.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

You don’t know man. . . YOU WEREN’T THERE!

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I’m arguing the other side: I think I agree with the jist of what you said, but it’s one thing to just say “I follow advanced stats too, but I think you’re wrong,” versus “I follow advanced stats too, but I think you’re wrong. You didn’t account for strength of schedule, and a Central team would have it tougher than a Northwest team” (for example).

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by red army line on Jul 21, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Some more Caps related news for a slow clips day.

Sure looks like Caps will keep their 7th round draft pick in 2013 as Taylor Stefishen is headed to U of Calgary to play hockey this season. Technically Caps have time to sign him but I’m assuming there’s a chance they released his rights given this news. Possible they didn’t release them, but that’s my assumption. Too bad for him that he got hurt during camp and didn’t have the whole week.

Reports out of SC are that Cail MacLean is heading to Abbotsford to be an asst coach at the EAHL level. Same path Bednar took before him. I figured he’d join Bednar in Peoria but this makes sense, too. So looks like Caps ECHL affiliate, SC Stingrays, will need a new head coach.

by sk84fun_dc on Jul 21, 2011 7:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Good for Coach MacLean. The ECHL is a development league for coaches as well.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Jul 21, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Indeed… ask former Mississippi Sea Wolves coach Bruce Boudreau. :)

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to be confused, but I am assuming that you meant the AHL?

by reesem37 on Jul 21, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

And today’s baby picture on “NHL Players as Kids” is …… Baby Ovi:

http://hockeyplayersaskids.tumblr.com/post/7852428292/alexander-ovechkin#notes

Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.

by CapsFan75 on Jul 21, 2011 7:30 AM EDT reply actions  

My God, look at thos chubby cheeks. Someone get that kid on a treadmill!

by mechanicsville on Jul 21, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions   4 recs

An’ tell him to stop slouching.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Jul 21, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like he’s going to pass out from food overload.

(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)

by oldemystix on Jul 21, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gotta think that if Anton Gustafsson’s name was “Anton Jones” or something, they would have never drafted him at that spot. Ugh.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 7:54 AM EDT reply actions  

And then Jordan Eberle went with the very next pick. BLARGH.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

And a bunch of GMs are wondering why they didn’t pick MoJo or RAHJC when they had the chance. Too late to worry about it now, at least his contract spot opens up.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Jul 21, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

And Green, and Schultz, and probably Eakin and Orlov and Kuz and Holtby. If we want to do the “only if we chose X” redraft, I think the Caps come out ahead, all things considered.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of course, but I don’t think that’s the point here. The point is that was a bad pick at the time and a bad pick in retrospect. It’s not Fehr vs. Parise, and it’s not quite Pokulok vs. sanity… more like the Finley pick. Just… not good.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right, it was definitely bad in retrospect. I just don’t like it when the degree of specificity in the critique reaches “Eberle for Angus” levels.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed (see my comment right below).

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Finley was a few years late. Pre-lockout, he’d have been a stud. Besides, with that draft we can all just say “hey remember that time we traded Steve Eminger and a 3rd round pick for John Carlson?”

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
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by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pre-lockout, he’d have been a stud.

I beg to differ.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

All that mattered back then was size. Skills, especially speed, came a distant second. See Redden, Wade.

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Uh, no.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Watch some old clips and tell me you wouldn’t want a 6’8 defenseman out there wrestling on the ice. That’s all that mattered.

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

The only time I want Joe Finley on my team’s backline is if the opposing team is made up of dinner china and lawn mowers. Other than that, no thanks.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

You’re just dead effin’ wrong. And I don’t get the Redden example – he wasn’t big (smaller than John Carlson) but had good years before and after the lockout.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, Redden could skate. This entire argument is baffling me.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know if he’s saying “Redden sucked pre-lockout but was good post-” (not true – he was fine pre-) or “Redden was good pre-lockout but sucked post” (not true – he was fine post-).

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was halfway trolling out of boredom. I still don’t get why Redden fell off so much post-lockout, if it was just pure injuries/substance abuse or not. That I’m actually interested in, after his one killer year in Ottawa (06?) his play dropped off a tiny bit, and then the Rangers dumped a wheelbarrow of cash on him and he went to barely hacking it in the NHL.

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

(Joe Finley was the ultimate example of why drafting huge, hulking skaters was completely stupid and how guys like Datsyuk, Zetterberg and MSL dropped so far off the radar)

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

(pssst — that one killer year in Ottawa was after the lockout)

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Redden wasn’t barely hacking it with the Rangers. He just wasn’t playing close to a $6.5MM cap hit.

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by Steckel Me Elmo on Jul 21, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he suffered worse than he was because he no longer had guys like Volchenkov and Meszaros helping him out. Meszaros had a ridiculous year then, too.

Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn

by sydtron on Jul 21, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gah. I read that as “Volchkov” and not “Volchenkov”

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t forget Chris Phillips (as everyone seems to). And Joe Corvo!

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

That is exactly what Redden’s “problem” was… of course, it’s not that big a problem when you’re pulling in, after taxes, about $3.8M…

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Knee injuries.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

According to TSN his last knee injury was in 2005. He has a one game absence due to Lower Body Injury (March ‘07) and a one game absence with a leg injury (Dec. ’08). Other than that there isn’t any sign of knee problems.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

There was a lot of discussion that he was never the same after his first knee injury. He slowed down a lot, while the game was speeding up.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I’m not saying you’re wrong, just telling you what the injury record looks like. He had the knee injury in 12/05 but his 05/06 year was still really good, then he had solid 06-07 (and was an important part of getting them to the SCF), and in 07-08. It was when he got paid by NYR that his game really fell off the cliff. I don’t doubt that the knee injury could have contributed, I just feel there has to be something more there. It doesn’t fit the profile of a guy who is completely derailed solely by injuries.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s entirely possible he was never really derailed at all. That’s just how good he was (or wasn’t). A couple of anomalous statistical seasons got him Paid, and then he became unplayable due to his salary

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe, but he had 8 straight 30-point seasons (bordered by 29 and 26 points) with three 40-point seasons and a 50-point season in there. That’s not really an anomaly, I don’t think. Maybe the 50, but it looks pretty clearly like he was a solid 35-40 point guy for almost a decade.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seems to me his 08-09 wasn’t too far out of line. 26 points, and he shot 1.9% !! I’m not sure NHL players could replicate that kind of low shooting percentage if they tried. (His career shooting percentage is 6%)

09-10 was truly putrid, but in both of Redden’s years with the Rangers, New York was running with a very inexperienced defense.

He really looks like a league-average guy who had some very good luck in Ottawa, then some very bad luck in New York that led to lack of confidence (by him and by the coaches) and that spiraled into one truly terrible year.

It’s too bad the CBA doesn’t let a guy like that have another chance. I bet a team would take him on for half his salary, but NY can’t let that happen because NY would take a salary cap hit. I hope the next CBA lets a guy be claimed on re-entry waivers for 1/2 his salary, and only the acquiring team takes on the salary cap hit. The original team still pays 1/2 the salary, but he doesn’t count at all against that salary cap. Would go a long way to solving the Redden/Souray/Nylander/Poti problem.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fair points, it would be interesting to see how much luck impacted his whole career, but I’m not sure how to do that at this point.

I like the other idea about sharing/trading money, but I fear it’ll let the high spending teams off the hook for bad contracts more often. That sort of undermines the cap.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

But teams are already undermining it by stashing them in the minors. I’d rather have the most talented players playing in the NHL.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it’s a tough point. I think they’d need to curtail the long deals for older players if they want to allow something like that. Otherwise the big spenders throw tons of money at all the good UFAs and then ship them to Florida when they can’t live up to it. That leads to an MLB-style two-tiered league.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but is that any worse than the current system? Florida, Nashville – they already live in that second tier. If they could acquire a player like Redden at a 50% discount, it might actually level the playing field somewhat.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know, I need to chew on it.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe it was easier for Redden to play while there was more PPTOI to go around (PPs were way up the first two years post-lockout). Still doesn’t explain the 07-08 year, though.

Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
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by red army line on Jul 21, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

True, I didn’t look at a breakdown of his ES/PP points.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

There was a lot of talk about how badly the death of his mother impacted him. Apparently he was very close to retiring right then and he had to be talked out of it by teammates. I think he had one more good year but he may not have had his heart in it the same way, I don’t really know.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the plus side, he married a lovely girl.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

She a ’Cuse girl or something?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

No. Just pretty (their wedding photos were online for all to see… Google “Redden wife” and I’m sure you’ll find her).

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

No look, he’s got a point. Remember Chad Haakeo Rowan? That dude was the bomb in the early and mid-1990s.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actuaully Redden can still skate… the problem is that if he skates in the NHL, his Salary Cap hit isn’t worth his talent.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

What was Ray Bourque, like 6’ 4" or something?

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Chelios was a little bigger, right? 6’ 6"?

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pffft. . . before the lockout, Brian Rafalski was 6’ 7" and Scott Niedermayer was 7’.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

And Chris Pronger shot bolts of lightning from his arse.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

And don’t forget about the planet shattering abilities of Al MacInnis! One hard shot, and we had the asteroid belt in the solar system.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rob Blake is the Oort Cloud.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thank goodness he didn’t go for the whole woad look.

Geeks of All Nations, Compile!

by AMusingFool on Jul 21, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Although the idea of a team taking a woad trip is amusing.

Geeks of All Nations, Compile!

by AMusingFool on Jul 21, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suspect Finley was drafted for an NHL that existed before the lockout, to be the “Derian Hatcher-like” sort of defenseman that could make a living in that NHL. After the lockout — new rules, bigger defensive zone to defend — it was like the meteor hitting the Yucutan Peninsula, and Finley was the dinosaur. He didn’t have a chance.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Jul 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

But if he had an ounce of footspeed, he could’ve side-stepped the meteor.

I really don’t think there’s an era in which he would’ve been a regular NHLer. I think they missed the mark on the type of player to draft, to be sure, but also on the specific individual.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree. If he could move well enough for the pre-lockout NHL, even with the slower pace, I’d think he wouldn’t be an ECHL regular right now.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

He’d probably be an AHL regular – that league is chock full of plumbers and such.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pre lockout, you mean. I agree with that.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I mean now if he could move well enough for the pre-lockout NHL, even with the slower pace, I’d think he would be an AHL regular right now.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, right, I think that was my original point. I’m sharp today…

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

What was the impact of the lockout on the AHL? Was there much style change at that level too?

(Yes, I know about the avatar hounding - just pretend mine is invisible.)

by oldemystix on Jul 21, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I believe the rules changed there, too, but they may have removed the red line earlier. Someone that watches more AHL would have a better take on it.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I’m sure he’s on that horrific fan-fiction site yet. On there all the players are studs…

Oh, you meant on the ice….

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pre-lockout, he’d have been a stud.

No. Pre-lockout, he’d have been Chris McAllister or Steve McKenna. Slow and talentless is slow and talentless, regardless of era.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s no way to go through life, son

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

Gotta Rec an Animal House reference! Well done, sir.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

…or he could have been Nolan Yonkman.

I mean, in 2005, did GMGM somehow think that Yonkman was going to be a serviceable NHL defenseman?

…oh wait – he played 38 games for the Caps that year.

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by Wheeler on Jul 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eberle doesn’t bother me too much, since I’ve always held that the Caps should’ve taken Carlson where they took Gus and lucked into Carlson still being available. So I’ve convinced myself only to look at guys taken after Carlson when flogging.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

So I’ve convinced myself only to look at guys taken after Carlson when flogging.

Oh the things one could insert after “flogging”….

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

It gets better if you mean insert physically, rather than grammatically.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

… and we’re off!

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

/raises hands in “I didn’t do it” position

/backs slowly off

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We don't have an outhouse
.....My tool shed!!!
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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the contrary, I think we’re all in.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dogs in the tub, we are.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

You’re just a dog in a manger.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m the dog who gets beat. And you shove my nose in… stuff.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

Demers!

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

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by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Patrice Cormier!

Wait…what?

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

…who looks like he’ll be a serviceable third-liner in a year or two.

Trading a second-rounder to move up two slots? Yikes.

Tortorella: Can I get another question? I went in here in a pretty good mood today, too.
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by Wheeler on Jul 21, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t mind that, as much. I don’t like the one-for-one comparisons. We also burned a 2 to move up to the point where Eberle was next. Sure, once you burn the 2 you’d rather take Eberle, but there was plenty of talent to sit where we were and end up taking 2 very quality guys in the First, and still have another 2 (with which to take a future-nobody).

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don't Forget

The future nobody turned out to be an NHL player. I know Patrice Cormier is not exactly Winnipeg’s top prospect, but he has scored more NHL goals than AnGus.

I thought at the time it was too much to pay to move ahead of one team (or two, if you count the Devils).

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by bilspacecadet on Jul 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Gustafsson’s not the worst pick of that draft. He’s not the second or third worst.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know he was the 5th ranked Euro skater, but there were already questions about his injury history, and I just think that they were more enamored with his name than his talent.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sure there were questions about his injury history, but there are questions about lots of draft picks’ injury histories. Thomas Hickey the year before was a much worse risk.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

And Mackan had a concussion issue.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m guessing this is something that Tampa fans dwell on.

Timo Helbling Traded to Tampa Bay by Nashville for Tampa Bay’s 8th round choice (Pekka Rinne) in 2004 Entry Draft, February 25, 2004.
Helbling played in 9 games for Tampa Bay.

by Malin A on Jul 21, 2011 8:30 AM EDT reply actions  

I dunno about that – it’s not like they drafted Rinne and gave up on him. If another team uses makes a great selection with a pick you sent ‘em, I’m thinking you tip your cap and move on. Or you dwell…

June 13, 1987: [Dale Hunter] Traded to Washington by Quebec with Clint Malarchuk for Gaetan Duchesne, Alan Haworth and Washington’s 1st round choice (Joe Sakic) in 1987 Entry Draft, June 13, 1987.

And yes, huge difference between a first round pick and one in a round that doesn’t even exist any more and among the players involved, etc…. just the first Caps example I could think of in which the traded pick was used on a super player.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think I would dwell, even though I realize it’s totally irrational.

by Malin A on Jul 21, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fret not – the Caps got their man three years later.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Continuing the tradition of “Capitals and Shitty Brothers”

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought that started it? Kevin and Kip Miller weren’t until later if memory serves.

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

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by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Does Mick McGeough’s brother Jim count as the “Shitty McGeough”?

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

That’s gotta be a push, but rec’d the legwork nonetheless.

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

MLS: If you're on crystal meth you can ref a match, just don't swear in the stands.

by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Paul Cavallini was the Shitty Cavallini.

Here’s an interesting tidbit about Paul:

Cavallini missed 13 games during the 1990–91 season with a bizarre left index finger injury, in which he lost the tip of the finger. He suffered the injury while blocking a Doug Wilson slapshot during St. Louis’ December 22, 1990, game vs. Chicago. The force of Wilson’s shot literally severed the tip of Cavallini’s finger. Cavallini found the tip of the finger inside his glove. Doctors hoped they could re-attach the tip in surgery, but their efforts failed.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wilson’s shot was one of the better ones back in the day (or so I thought, he was just under the MacInnis cloud in that Conference).

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

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by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

000

And he had a sweet haircut.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

He was a helluva player… Loved watching him skate, made it look almost effortless.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Caps probably had the better Courtnall, though.

But the worse Krestanovich.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Peter Sundstrom has no idea what you’re talking about.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of course, it’s not just the players

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey, at least that brother got to the conference finals. And thankful neither brother was asked back as GM.

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by apk3000 on Jul 21, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I honestly think Terry Murray is the Kings’ biggest problem right now. Watch them prove me wrong and win the Cup, but I really do believe he’s holding them back. He always was a better coach of teams without huge star power. He’s the wrong guy for the job out there.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

When they brought him in the word was “he’s a great teacher and he’ll be a great coach for these young kids that aren’t ready to compete for a Cup.” Well, now they are ready to compete, has anything changed regarding his fit for the team? I admit I’ve had the same thoughts as you regarding whether he’s the guy to take that team to the next step. I do think he’s earned the right to show what he can do with Kopitar/Richards/Stoll down the middle. That’s going to be a very good team.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think his system holds the stars back. The Kings should be scoring more goals than they do.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

At the same time… should Jonathan effin’ Quick be giving up more goals than he does? He had a 2.24 GAA in 61 games last year… but does anyone think he’s elite?

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the other hand, everyone loves Bernier and with the same system and personnel Quick has been able to keep Bernier from taking the net.

I don’t know how to separate the D from Quick. I guess just look at how LAK ranks in Corsi-Tied, that’s definitively how good their D is. Then look at Quick’s ESSV%, that’s definitively how good he is. I haven’t looked at either.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not everyone loves Bernier. Michal Neuvirth, for example.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Quick’s ES S% was .921, right behind Neuvirth’s .922 and 30th in the League among guys with 15 games played.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

How many qualified? And what is the line between legitimately above average and legitimately below average?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dunno and dunno.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

.920 I think is a bit above, probably not “legitimately” either way.

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by red army line on Jul 21, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Depends how you define it. If it’s a clear line of “this is average” then you could say it. But if you look at it as a range clustered around the exact average point, then no, it’s not legitimately either way.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow. LA only gave up 27.9 shots a game. That’s lower than any other team outside of St. Louis and NJD.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

UNDERCOUNTING!!!111

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are they really doing that? I know Florida has that rep…

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dunno. I’m just being somewhat silly.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

FLA’s rep is for overcounting shots.

FWIW, Likens had these conclusions in March, 2010:

* The shot recorder in New Jersey undercounts (this was addressed in a previous post)
* The shot recorder in Dallas undercounts
* The shot recorder in Colorado overcounts
* The shot recorder in Vancouver almost certainly undercounts
* The shot recorder in Ottawa probably overcounts
* The shot recorders in Boston and Nashville may overcount, but the evidence is not conclusive
* The shot recorders in St. Louis and Minnesota may undercount, but the evidence is not conclusive

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is yet another reason I’m not totally sold on Corsi – if the recorders can mess up SOG (which is pretty clear), imagine how much they dork up recording “shots toward the goal.”

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

But hey, I’m clearly just pushing a narrative because I’m a biased observer.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think most of the variance is in guys whacking at rebounds and situations like that. 90% shots are clear, some aren’t and those shots, if consistently interpreted in different ways, are going to skew the data there.

Then there’s the dude from MSG, who looks like he gets mushroom pizza and just pushes buttons and tastes the colors.

by Knee high to a duck on Jul 21, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

With the Kings’ personnel, I think they ought to be allowing a few more goals and scoring a lot more

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree – they need to pull a reverse 2010-11 Caps. Just pointing out that opening it up is going to expose Quick quite a bit and that the current system isn’t without its advantages.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Richards should really help. Kopitar should be freed up for a lot more offensive minutes now.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or Richards will get more. Either way, you’ve got two legit play drivers and number one Cs.

by Knee high to a duck on Jul 21, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. I assumed they’d use Richards more defensively and Kopitar more offensively because that’s my natural interpretation of their talents, but both of them are solid in all 3 zones.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say that Quebecolorado scored a hole in one with that draft choice

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

You must have mainlined some coffee to be sharp so early in the day over there.

"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg

MLS: If you're on crystal meth you can ref a match, just don't swear in the stands.

by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m Colombian — my spleen naturally produces caffeine

(it’s true, I actually am Colombian)

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

A trade that worked out well for both teams. Sure having Sakic would have been nice in DC, but Dale Hunter as much the heart and soul of the Caps for a decade after the deal, and it paid off completely when Hunter beat Hextall on that breakaway in Game 7 to eliminate the Flyers in OT.

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty awesome when winning a first round series is a top-three moment in franchise history.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not that… the Caps in the late 1980s and early 1990s made the mistake of being at their best when the Oilers and Penguins had teams that were loaded with Hall of Fame players. That 1988 Caps team had 4 Hall of Fame players in the line up (Langway, Stevens, Murphy, Gartner) but would not have been able to win the Cup against the champs that year (Edmonton). And as soon as the Oilers dynasty ended, the Penguins put together an incredible team (as we know) to win 2 Cups, and following that, the Oilers had their “Last Hurrah” disguised as the NY Rangers in 1994.

The sad fact in retrospect is that the Caps were not the best team in the NHL in those years…

Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy! (And now it's official...)

by MikeL-Pivonka on Jul 21, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

The best team in the NHL doesn’t always win the Cup. And the Caps in those years never even sniffed it. No excuses.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

"... the Penguins put together an incredible team (as we know) to win 2 Cups..."

Incredible? In the first of those years they had 88 points and beat a team in the finals that finished the season with 68 points (perhaps the final with the lowest combined total of standings points in the post-expansion era). The following year, they won the Cup after getting 87 points in the regular season.

It was the year after that in which the Pens might have been “incredible.” They led the league with 119 points (and note, that was before the Bettman Parting Gifts for Overtime and Shootouts). That team lost in the second round to a club that finished 32 points behind it in the standings.

Hockey is a bizarre sport sometimes.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Jul 21, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

That team lost in the second round to a club that finished 32 points behind it in the standings

And God bless David Volek and Glenn Healy for that.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

All I can think of when I read that block quote is the Caps losing to the Rangers…

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought precisely the same thing when I looked it up and saw that.

If you've read this far...seek help.

by ThePeerless on Jul 21, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kevin Stevens also had one of the most brutal injuries I’ve ever seen in that series where he missed a check and fell flush on his face. Never the same after that.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Such a horrible story. The fallout from that was really sad, all around. Not just never the same player, that had serious off-ice ramifications for him.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

As I recall, the surgery he had after that basically involved pulling down his entire face as if it were a mask and putting a plate in his forehead.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

0000

And here you are in GIF form


GIFSoup

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Nope. Not watching.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

never seen it before, and never want to see it again.

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by RedBirdie on Jul 21, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just be glad it’s just the fall and not the aftermath.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Definitely couldve done without this gif.

by mechanicsville on Jul 21, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

I love Dale Hunter. Dale Hunter was a hero of mine. I once shook his hand and it was a bear paw. That guy was awesome.

I’d prefer that the Caps’d had Joe Sakic for his career.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can’t really see how it could be argued otherwise.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe this is just my rationalizing, but it’s a question whether Poile would have picked Joe at 16. His track record with drafting offensive players in the first round during his run with the Caps was awful.

by bigonetimer on Jul 21, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

…er, that should be 15, not 16.

by bigonetimer on Jul 21, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Btw, fun Helbling fact – he’s the only Swiss player in Caps history, per Hockey Reference.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

From 20 Q’s with Don Meehan:

15. How did you feel when Alexander Ovechkin dropped you as his agent in 2006?
Meehan On the one hand, it was devastating, in that we had worked so hard for the family, in that we had been involved with the family for probably three years prior to the date he was drafted. We had left here on Christmas Day to go to Russia to be involved in tournaments, to see him, to spend time with him. Because he really thirsted for information in terms of North America, and he was really outstanding in his ambition to be involved in the NHL, and to know as much about it as he possibly could. We spent a great deal of time in terms of English classes and newspapers and periodicals and spending time with him and understanding what to do and what not to do when he came over … we always understand and respect the fact a player can make an independent decision as to his future. The only thing I regret is, probably, that the decision really wasn’t his decision. It was a family decision.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 8:50 AM EDT reply actions  

On the one hand, it was devastating to my wallet

Fixed.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Clearly – everything that follows is “we invested a lot in this guy, but were ditched before the big payday.” And he’s not wrong to feel that way.

I’m sure he was also devestated from the perspective of what it could mean with respect to future clients – if AO used and then discarded him, would others follow that lead?

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s a weird situation in that he was “there”, so he saw it all go down, yet he’s not “objective” because he had such a large financial stake in Ovi.

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

in fairness, he also probably invested a lot of mental and emotional energy into Ovie’s career

by j762 on Jul 21, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, we’re talking about people, but it’s no different than any corporation losing a major contract bid after investing time, big money, and even “mental and emotional energy” in the proposal phase. Business is business.

"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.

by bagace on Jul 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

True, but the percentage of players who dump their agents in between signing ELCs and their next contract is far, far smaller than the percentage of contracts a company bids on and loses (because those are competitions and maintaining an already established relationship really isn’t).

It’d be more analogous to the Government not exercising an option on a contractor’s contract (which, of course, is part of the reality of contracting).

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Please, tell me more about government contracts… {grin}

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha. The folks at work feel similarly when I mention hockey.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

We’ve got a bit of a surprise coming your way at 11:00. Be sure to click on the front page around then.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Semin traded?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Even more divisive.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   4 recs

Ovie’s off season workout and t-shirt choices?

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by RedBirdie on Jul 21, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Caps announce new Radio guy?

by DBake on Jul 21, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Schultz traded?

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by YvonLabresMoustache on Jul 21, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Per Nick Kypreos:

#NHL new. #Rangers Brandon Dubinsky has settled with the club on a 4 year deal believed to be worth 16.8M. His AAV for cap is 4.2M

by Malin A on Jul 21, 2011 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Good deal for both sides says I.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed. A little more than I expected him to get, but very fair. Did it include some UFA years? That would explain the small increase over my expectation.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Per Larry Brooks earlier:

To answer question: Dubinsky has 2 years remaining before he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent as per current CBA.

So yes. Two.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great deal then, makes perfect sense. Too bad that dream has died, though it never should have lived. Love me some Dubi.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Love me some Dubi doobie.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Brothers, that is. Like the Millers.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of course, what else could you have meant?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

F&B, that’s what a fool believes.

Tortorella: Can I get another question? I went in here in a pretty good mood today, too.
Larry Brooks: So did I.
Tortorella: Well, you obviously f***ed that up, didn't you?

by Wheeler on Jul 21, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

i see what you did there.

that gets a fist bump

by j762 on Jul 21, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think there are two UFA years in there.

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by RedBirdie on Jul 21, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well if you compare it to the deal Laich got…..

by Malin A on Jul 21, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha. Stop trolling me.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

First name I thought of.

I think this is a very good deal for the Rangers. Is it wrong to keep waiting for Sather to botch something this summer?

by bigonetimer on Jul 21, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

cough-Richardsfor9yearswithallthemoneyupfrontandahistoryofconcussions-cough

by capsfan4 on Jul 21, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I took that into consideration. Richards cap hit is 6.66M, just a hair under Nick’s 6.7M, and as far as 1C’s go I think Sather and the Rags did OK on this. With Doobs, the Rags have a great top end (and enviable depth) at the pivot now.

by bigonetimer on Jul 21, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just being snarky. Dubi was a steal and Richards is obviously an excellent player. I don’t think they’ll regret that contract for at least 5 years. However, at that point….

by capsfan4 on Jul 21, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we want to very crudely compare it to the Laich deal, Laich’s last two RFA years were a cap hit of $2.07m (and over three seasons). So with inflation and the fact that Dubinsky’s a better player than Laich, let’s say his last two RFA years come in at $3.1m. That would put his two UFA years on this deal at $5.3m per (and starting three seasons from now). Looking at it that way, it still makes sense and I’d buy that Dubi is a ~0.8m better player than Laich.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

RFA negotiations

What do people think about the Doughty negotiations? Who do you think the comparables are, and what do you think the likely result is? My perception changed after the whole Alzner thing; Doughty has no leverage and I think that will matter. He’s obviously going to make much, much more than Alzner, but I don’t think he’s going to hit 7. I think he probably comes in around 6 with comparables of Keith, Green, and Yandle. I’m sure his agent really wishes Shea Weber would have signed by now, that would probably be a more favorable comparable. Campbell, IIRC, is the highest paid D at 7.6, and everyone thinks it’s a bad deal. I can’t see an RFA D becoming the highest paid, or really setting the market. 6 seems like a pretty fair and realistic outcome to me, maybe up to 6.5.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 10:54 AM EDT reply actions  

I think a lot of it depends on how long the contract is and if he gives them any UFA years. Maybe he’s also so out of leverage that he gets Alzner’d into two years at 4.75 or something of that sort.

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by SmallZ827 on Jul 21, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, if he gets UFA years signed that changes it, but for the next 5 years, like a Stamkos deal, I’d guess around 6.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds fair to me, but I’ve learned to expect to be baffled by RFA negotiations.

Eat, drink, and be merry! And then drink some more.

by SmallZ827 on Jul 21, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

The negotiation I’m curious about is Parise’s. I’ve literally heard nothing about him this summer. I imagine there is a pretty big gulf between the team and Parise, as the team is gonna play the knee injury card, and Parise is gonna play the “I’m your best player” card. I’m real curious what kind of numbers they are talking.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Jul 21, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s true. But Parise is in a different class, having arbitration rights, so it’s not the same. Doughty is a legit stud and has zero leverage. His only threat is “I won’t play.” That’s not really in his interest either.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did either NJ or Parise elect for arbitration? That may help explain why no one is talking about offer sheets for him.

Release the Mackan!

by Killer_Carlson on Jul 21, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

The team elected for arbitration, assuming I remember correctly.

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by Steckel Me Elmo on Jul 21, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, almost right away.

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by red army line on Jul 21, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

New content? New content.

New contributor? New contributor.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Caps Report

Anyone know how long it usually takes for the podcast to be posted?

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by NGreenberg on Jul 21, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

It usually comes up on iTunes within an hour after the show is over.

by Malin A on Jul 21, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting analysis of the Richards and Carter trades which uses some fancystats.

http://drivingplay.blogspot.com/2011/07/on-june-23rd-2011-flyers-general.html

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by fat_daddyo on Jul 21, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

However, some of this effect can be explained when we realize that Columbus’ opponents saved 91.1% of all shots while on the PK according to Behind The Net. Thanks to mc79hockey, we know that the historic average is around 86.6%, a full 4.5% disparity. Had Columbus’ opponents not been so lucky, both the team and Voracek most likely would have sported slightly higher power play production.

I’m not convinced it’s so simple. I think there could be some real merit to the possibility that CBJ had a bad, predictable PP that made it easier for other teams and goalies to plan around when they PK. If you know you only have to shut down Nash, then maybe it’s easier to force CBJ into shots they don’t really want to be taking. I can’t really believe that CBJ’s horrible PP is all luck and none of it had to do with systems, coaching, and personnel.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

But, either way, this analysis only really cares about what you can expect from Voracek, and that would be yet another reason to think he’s likely to do better in Philly.

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by AMusingFool on Jul 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s fair. I’m still not very high on him.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

My takeaway from the article is that Voracek got buttery-soft minutes in CBJ and still didn’t tear it up.

Even if he ends up on Briere’s line with good PP time, he’s probably not getting protected like he did last season.

He goes to a better team and better overall team-mates, but the demands on him will also be a bit stiffer. Philly is one of the interesting propositions in the League, to my mind, and Voracek’s production is a significant component of that. Should be fun to watch it shake out.

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by fat_daddyo on Jul 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s my take as well. And if he was on a crappy PP, then he’s not a driver for a good PP. He may be a good compliment to a PP, which PHI should have, but I don’t think the guy is a real difference maker. I’d love to see Lavi scratch him.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think there could be some real merit to the possibility that CBJ had a bad, predictable PP that made it easier for other teams and goalies to plan around when they PK.

Or, you know, maybe their personnel just sucked?

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s in that comment as well. And if the personnel sucked outside of Nash, and you are bringing in one of said personnel, then what does that mean?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wrong. Gotta be luck. If it’s not luck, it’s shot quality (which would be the result of systems, coaching and/or personnel), and we know that doesn’t exist. Ergo… luck.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Surely you’re joking Mr. Feynman.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is the same with the Caps. We had a top shot rate on the PP last year, so it must just be bad luck that every single team in the league knows how to neutralize our most talented goal scorer on the PP. Dumb luck.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would really be super-duper unlucky if the Caps didn’t change a thing on the PP and it continued to suck, wouldn’t it?

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d be shocked.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

(I actually would be, though it may not top the league)

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by red army line on Jul 21, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess it depends on where you are drawing your lines. If the PP stays as is, it won’t produce commensurate to the talent on the unit.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Ovi pots less then 10 ppg next summer is gonna come fast and really really suck

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by Cap-O-Vens on Jul 21, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right. Snark aside, no doubt the unit ran into some lousy luck. That said, the drop can’t possibly be pinned entirely on misfortune.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

every single team in the league knows how to neutralize our most talented goal scorer furthest from the net on the PP.

FTFY

Geeks of All Nations, Compile!

by AMusingFool on Jul 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

What surprises me is that CBJ could have a PP that’s so poor it shoots only 2% better than the league average team at ES. Basically, the Sedins and Crosby (and Semin) are generating the same shooting percentage at ES when they’re on the ice as CBJs PP. That doesn’t make any damn sense.

by Knee high to a duck on Jul 21, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

From "What We're Reading" Burnside on RFA
Alzner logs a ton of ice time, plays against opposing teams’ top players and has Rod Langway potential.

I love me some Hot Karl, but “Rod Langway potential?” Did Burnside mean “Rod Flanders” potential?

(Remember, future Rod and Tod had sweet ’staches. Who wants a mustache ride?)

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Hot Karl and JC Superstar in 20 years?

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I buy the Langway comparison.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t. Langway was an HOF-quality defensive defenseman with a mean streak longer than one of Jabba the Hutt’s skidmarks.

Alzner is a very good defensive defenseman who rarely takes penalties. Yeah, Langway chilled out as he got older, but during his days in MTL he surpassed 100 PIM twice.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Eh, focusing on PIM is cutting it a bit too fine. I’m just looking at “stay at home stud, very limited offense but not incompetent with the puck, with leadership ability.” The exact specifics are less important to me. You can always find some sort of difference between guys. Langway was in an era that allowed for more of the rough and physical stuff. That’s just not how it works these days.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Alzner is very, very good, but I don’t see him as being HOF-caliber. He’s a bit more Adam Foote than Rod Langway in my mind. Still an excellent player, a building block for a franchise and a great leader, just not at that next level. I hope Hot Karl proves me wrong.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

He moves so much better than Foote and he plays with the puck better. Foote was made for a different era, but we’ll see. Was Foote a top pair D in his first full NHL season? Alzner is just showing the tip.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, you’re remember circa 2006 Foote.

1996 Vintage Foote was a similar player to Alzner in many ways – decent puck-mover from his own end, but not an “offensive” guy by any means. Pretty good footspeed (although perhaps not as smooth as Alzner).

The big difference in their games was toughness. Alzner has shown an ability to play without taking penalties, while Foote was more intimidating. Take your pick as to which you’d prefer. Alzner’s style is probably more conducive to longevity though.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could do a lot worse than Foote, I’m not knocking the guy. If that’s how Alzner is, we’ll be alright. I just think he’s got more to his game, and more potential (easy to say since Foote has none left, we know what he was). Obviously Foote was more physical, and that’s a product of the era he came up in. Alzner is in an era that puts a greater premium on other skills. And that’s what he excels at. Foote was never the kind of skater Alzner is. If you don’t like comparing him to Langway over PIM, then Foote really shouldn’t be the guy you jump to.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

My big quibble with Langway is HOF-caliber vs. occasional All-Star caliber. The physical thing is secondary.

The problem coming up with a comp for Alzner is that there aren’t many “non-physical” defensive defensemen.

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the eras changed dramatically for him. I can buy the HoF thing, that’s obviously a high bar to hang on anyone.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Alzner is very, very good, but I don’t see him as being HOF-caliber.

I think it’s fair to say that defensive defensemen, generally, were more valued and appreciated back in the day. I mean, can you think of a single Langway type since Langway who’s going to go to the Hall? I’ve got one.

But as far as becoming a premiere shutdown D, I think it’s quite possible for Alzner.

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

(And the one I’ve scored double-digit goals nine times, so he doesn’t even really fit the bill.)

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by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Err, “the one I’ve got scored…”

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

And played on the same team as Langway?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Jul 21, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup.

Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world

by J.P. on Jul 21, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scott Stevens

Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...

by dcsportsfan1 on Jul 21, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not J.F. Fortin?

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ooooh, is it Kevin Hatcher?

Armareddon.

by D'ohboy on Jul 21, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Naw man, don’t hang “Langway” on Alzner. Langway is the best at what he did of all time. Alzner is very, very good. But don’t ask him to be that. Langway had a more complete package of being a defensive defenseman than I think Alzner ever will. And that’s fine. Alzner just needs to be who he is.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jul 21, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aw, happy second birthday to … Mike Green’s Twitter account. @GreenLife52 is two years old today. Lulz.

You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!

by EmilyB on Jul 21, 2011 6:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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