Keeping Development in Perspective
Every summer the Capitals invite a slew of young NHL hopefuls to participate in a development camp - for one week these prospects, recent draftees and free agent invitees are put through their paces and given an opportunity to make an impression on the organization's brass. And every summer there are standouts and disappointments, pleasant (and not so pleasant) surprises and previously unknown names that are suddenly on the radar.
The 2011 Development Camp has come and gone, the prospects returned to their various hometowns, but the impressions remain relatively fresh - of a late-round draftee from last month's draft, or a veteran of three camps who knows he still has some work to do, or a Russian defenseman looking to get his first season of North American hockey underway.
And yet as we sift through the multitude of articles and blog posts cataloging and categorizing the various attendees from this past week's camp, it's important to remember that this is just a first look. Sometimes a standout performance is a good predictor of future success, sometimes not, just as a lackluster performance can be a sign of things to come as easily as it could be merely a stumble en route to NHL success. So when people are lauding Garrett Haar or down on Cody Eakin, all of these impressions should be taken with a grain of salt.
To gain a little perspective, a look back at some hits...and misses...from past development camps after the jump.
Hit: Marcus Johansson
When you're a Swedish center drafted by an organization that boasts Nicklas Backstrom as one of its stars, the comparisons are inevitable - and coming into camp, that was the standard against which most observers (including the coach) measured Marcus Johansson:
"[H]e carries himself like he's going to be a very good player ... "He's got the Nicklas Backstrom stride, almost. He's a better skater than Nick, but he's big in the back[side], so you can see where he can control the puck and will be hard to knock off the puck. You can see that he sees the play real well." - Bruce Boudreau, 7/12/10
Miss: Joe Finley
Drafted in the "pass the mental bleach" fiasco that was the Capitals' 2005 NHL Entry Draft, Finley was seen by many as a bit of a reach right from the start. But his size and snarl endeared him to some and helped them to overlook a bit of pesky mascot-attacking and lawnmower-throwing. He even temporarily impressed Caps guru Mike Vogel - proof that even the wisest minds slip up, albeit rarely. We'll let this one slide, Vogs:
"Finley came to camp with the reputation of a big guy with a mean streak, a physical defenseman with decent mobility. That’s all true. But I have also been impressed by other aspects of his game. He has a heavy shot that he gets on goal, and he knows when and when not to use it. For a guy with one goal in his two college seasons, he looks remarkably comfortable on the power play." - Dump 'n Chase, 7/15/07
Hit: John Carlson
A year after being drafted by the Caps in the first round, Carlson established himself as the standout of the 2009 Development Camp. Dubbed the most NHL-ready of all the prospects by Boudreau, it was easy to see that his talents were turning heads and penciling him into an NHL spot - despite the fact that he wouldn't become a permanent part of the Caps' roster for another year:
"[Carlson] plays solid defense. His outlet passes are hard and accurate. And when the pressure is on, he demands the puck with a stern whack of his stick on the ice. Did anyone mention that he's only 19?" - Tarik El-Bashir, 7/14/09
Miss: Anton Gustafsson
He was the one everyone wanted to see succeed. The son of former Caps' great Bengt, Anton Gustafsson had the pedigree to be a big star for the Caps. What he didn't have was the ability to stay healthy, or ultimately the drive to be an NHLer at all. Still, it wasn't immediately evident that things wouldn't work out with the kid dubbed "AnGus" - there were flashes of ability, and the future seemed (temporarily) bright:
[H]e was the second-best player on the ice behind Carlson. The 2008 first-rounder also said he plans to play in North America this upcoming season, whether it's in Hershey or Washington. - Tarik El-Bashir, 7/13/09
Hit: Karl Alzner
The newly re-signed defenseman was the Caps' first round pick in 2007, taken 5th overall and immediately tabbed as the future of the Washington blueline. After a season that saw him captain his WHL team, win gold at the World Junior Championships and earn Defenseman of the Year honors for the Canadian Hockey League, Alzner entered 2008's development camp as that year's "one to watch". His performance even then was a great predictor of the kind of player Alzner would eventually become:
"He is very mature as a person and as a player. He thinks the game really well, and there’s not a lot of panic in his game. He’s under control, and as a result of that he sees the ice really well and he makes good decisions not only when he has the puck but when he doesn’t. He is usually in pretty good position defensively. He’s got kind of an uncanny ability to deflect a lot of pucks." - Ross Mahoney, 7/8/08
Miss: Michael Dubuc
A veteran of two development camps, Dubuc came to the Caps as a free agent hopeful back in 2008 and impressed enough his first time out to earn a two-way contract with the Hershey Bears. His scoring touch was well-known and on full display during each of his summers at Kettler, picking up seven goals in three scrimmages during the 2009 Development Camp alone. Since then, however, he's bounced between the AHL and ECHL and has been bounced from the organization for good - still, it wasn't that long ago where he was singled out as one of the stars of camp and a top Caps prospect:
"The lanky winger spent most of last season in the ECHL, but he's definitely on the Caps/Bears radar now. A native of Quebec, Dubuc struck twice in today's camp-closing scrimmage to lead the Team White to a 4-2 win and extend his development camp record to seven goals in three scrimmages. He notched 35 goals in 49 games for South Carolina last season, but something tells me he's going challenge for a spot in Hershey this fall." - Tarik El-Bashir, 7/18/09
Hit: Mathieu Perreault
He may not have cracked the NHL full time just yet, but the fact that a 5'10" kid (...on skates, maybe) drafted 177th overall has even hung around let alone been on the cusp of making the Caps' roster year after year is something to note. Despite his status as a late-round draft pick, Perreault made a splash in each development camp he attended and had people noticing that he could (and can) play:
"He's still small (listed at 5-9, 165) but everything else about his game is blossoming. No one plays as hard as Perreault, and he was easily the most skilled forward on the ice this week." - Tarik El-Bashir, 7/18/09
Miss: Stefan Della Rovere
A "miss" isn't always a player that turns out to be a complete bust; sometimes it's just someone who never quite finds his place in the organization. That was the case of Della Rovere, the final pick by the Caps in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. A pest who wasn't afraid to drop the mitts with guys who towered over him (and at 5'10", most guys do), he quickly worked his way out of late-round obscurity to be an effective member of Team Canada at the WJC and a fan favorite at Caps' Development Camp. He eventually fell out of favor with the organization and was shipped off to St. Louis last summer for D.J. King, but for a while there he had us daydreaming of his name on a Caps' sweater:
We’re rooting for Stefan Della Rovere to make this team some time down the road. He was quite the bundle of energy and grit out there. Even in an environment where one might not see quite the level or intensity of hitting one would see in real games, he was out there plugging away making his presence felt." - Peerless Prognosticator, 7/12/08
Hit: Nicklas Backstrom
Despite his talent and his eventual place among the core group of young stars, it wasn't the smoothest of starts for Backstrom at his first (and only) development camp. Adjusting to a new country, a new language and a new ice surface, initial reports on his first few days of camp were mixed - a quiet start, inauspicious at best, perhaps not as NHL-ready as expected. By the end of the week, however, he had provided vindication for some and was starting to show glimpses of the player he would blossom into very shortly:
"The story of the session was Nicklas Backstrom. After a quiet start to camp, the 19-year-old center seemed to get better with each scrimmage. He clearly was at his best this afternoon, weaving his way through the other team, making drop passes between his skates and setting up Francois Bouchard with a deft pass from the corner." - Tarik El-Bashir, 7/14/07
Miss: Francois Bouchard
Taken late in the same draft that brought Backstrom, Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth into the fray, Bouchard had the bloodlines (his brother, Pierre-Marc, is in his eighth season with the Minnesota Wild) and the talent (he was one of the QMJHL's top scorers in 2006-07) to make him "one to watch". He even found himself on the radar and alongside some good company as a potential training camp dark horse back in 2007. Since then? A steady decline that's seen him become a reliable member of the Hershey Bears but not much else - and five years after being drafted he has yet to play his first NHL game. A slightly different story from just a few years ago:
"What I really like is the way he's competed. He's using this camp as a steppingstone to show us that he's ready to play. There's a business approach to the way he's carrying himself. It looks like he has a purpose...that's important, because sometimes young players don't realize they are being evaluated on everything, from what you do on the ice to how you behave in the [locker] room." - Glen Hanlon, 7/15/07
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I think it’s easier for a guy like Haar to stand out since nobody expected him to do anything. Conversely, if Eakin wasn’t coming in with the hype he had, I’m sure the reaction would be more positive. It’s just natural, but I think it’s important to keep in mind, especially with this camp. Looking at guys like Dubuc should also remind you how far from NHL-caliber this camp is. I don’t think this is the time to be evaluating these prospects too deeply.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
It’s also easier for a Haar to stand out when even the top prospects in camp aren’t as good as they have been in other years. But no doubt the unheralded guys get heralded awfully fast with a good performance or two. Also, as sk8 has mentioned before, the number of camps to which these guys have been adds context.
And I think all of that’s the point of the post – good or bad, don’t read too much into last week.
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Yeah, I agree with that, too. I guess the number of camps angle works further against Eakin, but I’m really not that worried. As long as he can come to rookie camp and pour it on I don’t think anyone will even remember how he looked in this camp.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, if I sounded excessively down on Eakin, I should blackout or backout my offending comments.
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by J.P. on Jul 20, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
The one guy that really stood out in the first camp at Kettler that was unheralded was Jay Beagle. He was in camp with Backstrom, Perrault, Neuvirth, Varly and Alzner, but nobody knew him. In the scrimmages, he worked harder, hustled more and did a lot of strong faceoff work that got him a lot of notice and eventually a contract. The next year, it was Jake Hauswirth. It’s really a question of how much desire and mental toughness the kids bring vs. being overwhelmed by the nature of the camp.
by NHL Observer on Jul 20, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m glad you mentioned Beagle. When I saw the theme of this post, I expected to see him mentioned in the main write-up as he is an example of a successful camp and he definitely stood out throughout the week.
I agree about the cautions and not getting too excited or disappointed based on watching camp unless it’s confirmation of things that have already been seen, etc.
I mentioned a few times to people last week when they asked my thoughts that this was a less impressive group overall compared to recent years as a non-scout viewing portions of the week, but it reminded me of the early days of watching the camps with Werner, etc.
This is not an all-inclusive list. Just the highlights (and lowlights), Beagle is more of a toss-up, he wasn’t a miss but I wouldn’t call him a hit, either. We’ve had a few guys get contracts as free agent invitees, they’re not all on the list, either.
The definition of being a Caps fan is watching the same team over and over and expecting different results.
Also, if there wasn’t a great quote to work off of, it didn’t really work with this format.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Thanks. Yup.
- Age range of players
- When player last was on ice – players at Memorial Cup vs NCAA players vs players finishing season playing pro; also injury situations with players like Burke and Grubauer
- Background of players – NTDP/USHL/Europe/NCAA/Pro experience
- Attended an NHL camp before
- Attended Washington Caps camp once or more than once in the past which adds to familiarity with systems/coaches/facility, etc.
- Some players have contracts, some don’t
All of this stuff factors into what one sees on the ice in mid-July, along with the fact that it’s mid-July, etc.
I’m reading the comments on some of those misses and just wincing. Hopefully there isn’t too many more of those.
My mind is all twtisted like a peanut.
In helping B dig for some of the pull quotes in this post, I came across this from September 2007:
Baie-Comeau’s Francois Bouchard is in very much the same situation [as Flyer prospect Claude Giroux]. He was actually a second-round pick in 2006 but improved exponentially last season with the Drakkar and ended up winning the QMJHL scoring title. If the Washington Capitals decide he is better than the grinders they have pegged for their third and fourth lines, Bouchard might get a shot.
Yeah. Not so much in 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Nary a single game. Guys who’ve played at least one for the Caps since then include Brian Willsie, Boyd Kane, Graham Mink, Staffan Kronwall, Oskar Osala, Joe Motzko…
… and yet they keep qualifying this guy. Weird.
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At least he’s an AHL player. They don’t really walk from AHL talent, right? Usually it’s the ECHL guys that don’t get qualified I thought. Maybe GMGM is holding out hope, or maybe he just figures it’s a nice piece for HER to have around. At this point I’ll be surprised if we get NHL value out of him (whether through trade or him playing in the NHL for the Caps).
Obviously, this is all speculation.
Yeah, he’s AHL talent, but so are others they didn’t QO (like Joudrey, for example). But I’m surprised they’ve never gotten him even a single game. Maybe a “here’s what it’s like, now go back to HER and bust your ass” game would do something for him.
Agreed that his value is marginally above nil, if that.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think we’ll be able to infer quite a bit about how they see him based on how many pre-season games he gets. 0 would say “it’s not happening,” right?
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I don’t know about “it’s not happening”, but this definitely his last chance. He has to make someone notice that he’s come to camp committed to fight for a job that maybe isn’t even there. He’s got to perform in Hershey this year and put up some numbers that make people remember that he actually could score when he played Junior Hockey.
by NHL Observer on Jul 20, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s fair. I think it probably also depends who is getting the sweater instead of him in the pre-season. If it’s the vets and BB is dressing NHL guys to get the kinks out, then you can forgive Bouchard not playing. But if it’s a lot of Eakin and Sjogren and MP, etc. then the lack of a jersey would speak volumes.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I agree. If Eakin and Sjogren start getting the lustful glances from the coaching staff, then Bouchard has pretty much blown it. With Kugryshev, Galiev and Kuznetsov in the pipe, along with potentially a gaggle of other younger, hungry kids looking for opportunities, Bouchard has to have the camp/season of his life.
by NHL Observer on Jul 21, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Bouchard’s only 23; Joudrey was 25 when he didn’t get his QO. Joudrey’s also a lot smaller, and they may have just made a determination based on his size and showing in Hershey that he didn’t have any NHL upside.
Tortorella: Can I get another question? I went in here in a pretty good mood today, too.
Larry Brooks: So did I.
Tortorella: Well, you obviously f***ed that up, didn't you?
And if Joudrey is 25, he would have been UFA like A Gordon.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
This time around Joudrey was a Group 6 UFA, yes; the first time Joudrey was signed in the organization, he was not QOd when his ELC expired.
Joudrey signed a 2 year ELC. (07-08 and 08-09); at end of ELC, the Caps did not extend him a QO. As an UFA, he signed an AHL only contract with Hershey for the 09-10 season. Then as an UFA, he signed a 2-way NHL contract with the Caps for the 10-11 season.
This was Bouchard’s first contract which just expired; his 3 year ELC. Caps QOd him and re-signed.
When camp had high end first round guys like Backstrom and Alzner, and even later with late 1st rounders like Johansson and Carlson, D-camp is more of an event. But here the Caps are, several years of end-of-round pickas, and this past June didn’t have but four picks and none in the first three rounds. The flip side of success…a D-camp with much lower wattage then in previous years.
If you've read this far...seek help.
…which is probably why there were roughly eleventy billion posts dedicated to Danick Paquette over the last week.
The definition of being a Caps fan is watching the same team over and over and expecting different results.
Also, Kuznetsov prolly would have come but he’s still rehabbing.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
3,000 people apparently disagree. But yeah, it’s just not quite the same.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
3,000 people apparently disagree.
So what? Maybe they really went for the scrimmage. Or maybe they went for the fan fest. Or maybe they went for the game used equipment sale. Maybe they even went somewhere cool to get away from donkey-punch DC July weather. But it doesn’t change the fact that it’s a superfluous statement.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
MLS: If you're on crystal meth you can ref a match, just don't swear in the stands.
by Bald Pollack on Jul 21, 2011 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Question is, has anyone ever had a sub-par D-camp and come on to be a decent player?
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
Exactly. I had a tough time finding anyone I felt fit into that category – generally the tendency is for guys to get overly praised and then turn out to be a bust, or get praised and live up to it. If someone flames out at development camp it’s probably not a good sign for them. The closest thing I found in my archive-perusing was hints at a slow start for Backstrom and a rough first camp for Varly (relatively speaking), and nothing concrete on either.
The definition of being a Caps fan is watching the same team over and over and expecting different results.
That’s because no one covering the team says bad things about good prospects. Duh.
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I had the impression that Mackan and Baxter disappointed, but they both showed the raw skill. It’s all relative to expectations, and to have high expectations means you probably are a high pick or have proven to have lots of talent. And then even if you don’t do anything in the game time, like the Swedes, your drills show more than enough skill to quell people.
Obviously, this is all speculation.
I really think judging 18 and 19 year-olds by a one week sample, forty minutes of which is in-game ice time is an exercise in folly.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jul 21, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, I think it depends. Send AO out to a camp with a bunch of 10 year olds and in even his worst week he’ll score 50 goals (a game). I’m not sure that development camp is close enough to the NHL that NHL-ready talent, even playing at its worst, need not stand out.
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I believe in next year.
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