2010-11 Rink Wrap: Alexander Semin
by Kareem E. on Jun 9, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
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PrintFrom Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2010-11 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2011-12. Next up, Alexander Semin.
Alexander Semin
#28 / Left Wing / Washington Capitals
6-2
205
Mar 03, 1984
6
$6,700,000 cap hit in 2011-12; UFA after 2011-12 season
8.03 rating
7.46 rating
6.51 rating
Key Stats: Semin played in 65 games this season, exactly his career average after six seasons.
Interesting Stat: In 10 career playoff elimination games, Semin has scored 10 points.
The Good: Over the past seven seasons, the enigma known as Alex Semin has driven the Capitals fan base crazy. One stretch he is the best player on the ice, setting up plays, toying with defensemen, scoring goals, and flashing what may be the NHL's best set of hands. The next stretch he's invisible, except for the untimely defensive zone giveaway and the ugly offensive zone hooking penalty. You never know what you get with Semin, and, consequently, you have a much-divided fan base when it comes to determining his value to the team.
Lest there be any doubt, Alex Semin is a puck possession machine. His SC% of 57.5% was tops on the team (minimum 20 GP); he finished third on the team in GAETAN at +27.0; his 5-on-5 ON/60 was the runaway leader at +1.59; his 5-on-5 CORSI of 11.1 was second on the team; his 5-on-5 shots allowed per 60 was the best of any top 9 forward at 25.4 and he was third overall in 5-on-5 GA/60 at 1.73. The last two stats are not to be overlooked, considering the criticism he gets for inconsistent effort in his own zone. The fact that he keeps the puck away from the other team is his best defensive trait. And in the process, he often forces the other team to take a penalty while attempting to shut him down - his 1.0 penalties drawn/60 is fourth-most on the team.
And he does all of this without an everyday centerman. This year he has skated at least 100 minutes with five centers (Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Arnott, Tomas Fleischmann, Mathieu Perreault, Marcus Johansson). Certainly the Caps have not done him any favors with their carousel of 2Cs.
Finally, it should be noted that Semin's solid start to the season carried the Caps offensively, as he amassed 25 points in the first 19 games and staked the Caps to a 14-4-1 record. And after being vilified last season for his performance against Montreal, he answered the bell in the Rangers series, putting up four points in five games, including one splendid OT game-winner.
The Bad: As solid of a puck possession season Semin had, he did not do enough of what he is paid handsomely to do: score. His 28 goals were the lowest since 2007-08; his TOI/game declined by 1:03 this season; his shots dropped from 3.8/game last season to 3.0 this season; and his points per game declined from 1.27 in 2008-09 to 1.15 in 2009-10 to 0.83 in 2010-11, a 35% decrease over two seasons. These stats were accumulated playing with strong teammates, weaker competition and with a large number of offensive zone starts (55%). Meanwhile, his cap hit will increase to $6.7M in 2011-12, up from $4.6M in 2009-10 and $6.0M this past season. That's a 45% raise in two seasons. Ultimately, Semin's costing more and producing less, not a good situation for a well-paid "core" player, especially one who is not looked upon to provide any leadership in the clubhouse. He's simply here to score goals.
In Semin's defense, some of his drop-off in production can be explained away by the Caps move to a defensive-minded system halfway through the season. Another chunk of it can also be explained by the Caps mediocre power play, which cost Semin nine less power play points than the previous season. (However, some of the power play blame has to rest at #28's skates too.) Another explanation, though, is that the book on Semin is out. Force him to the perimeter, play him physical, frustrate him into taking long shots, take away his space so that he can't launch his potent wrister, and never let him behind you. The whispers are that Semin won't pay the price and go to the front of the net, that he won't put up a fight if you take liberties with him, that he won't adjust to adversity on the fly, and that he'll simply disappear into the backdrop. The Tampa series didn't help dissuade the detractors.
Then there are the injuries. After six seasons, it's fair to say that Alex Semin playing more than 65 games per season - his career average - is exceeding expectations.
Finally, there is the inconsistency. Good Sasha showed up the first 19 games, racking up 25 points. That same caliber player did not show for the final 46 games, where he managed only 29 points. The inconsistency plays out beyond missing out on goals and assists, it manifests itself with the mental mistakes, including the lazy and still-all-too-frequent HHT penalties (most penalties taken per 60 minutes on the team), the cutesy passing and the failed clears. It ultimately prevents a good player from being a great player.
The Vote: Rate Semin below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: Does Semin still fit on a more defensive-minded Capitals squad? If so, should the Caps invest in a veteran, skilled center that can get more out of Semin, or is it time to consider trading him? If he stays, what will it take for Semin to earn a 10 rating next year?
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I expected to not know what to expect, and he delivered. Leaning 5.
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by J.P. on Jun 9, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
7
Really tough for me. I’m rating him high, I know, but it just felt like this year I was much more happy to see Semin on the team than in years past. Less stats, but less cursing him. Wish I could put it into words better.
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
Sasha finds your standard numerical scale from 1 to 10 boring. I vote S.
But really, a 6. Expect the unexpected from the Siberian Snowflake and that’s what we got. A slight bump for the intriguing willingness to battle on the boards we saw late in the season. He needs to continue that to get high marks next season.
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by apk3000 on Jun 9, 2011 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
People keep telling me he’s elite, so if I base my expectations on that, then it’s a 3 (same score I gave his running buddy).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
After seven years you base your evaluation on a baseline of what other people tell you? I can understand a 3 but isn’t it how you felt Sasha let you down.
A danger to myself and others on the ice
by can't skate on Jun 9, 2011 11:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The first half of my comment was 70% snark.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Jun 9, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I’m really bad with math!
A danger to myself and others on the ice
by can't skate on Jun 9, 2011 11:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I quibble with weaker competition. If you use Corsi Rel QComp (which in my experience does a much better job identifying competition), Semin rates only behind Laich and Johansson as forwards. Semin is a legitimately awesome possession forward, for all his faults.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
if Semin ever put it all together it’d be totally frightening. He’s past his prime but I just can’t shake the feeling that he’s a center he plays well with away from being an 70-80 point player for the next 6-7 years.
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
Leave me here, and when you want me, sound upon the bugle-horn
If you use Corsi Rel QComp (which in my experience does a much better job identifying competition), Semin rates only behind Laich and Johansson as forwards. Semin is a legitimately awesome possession forward, for all his faults.
Is that to say that Johansson was a legitimately awesome possession forward this past season?
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Rather emphatically not. I should have written out what was in my head, namely that while facing higher levels of competition than AO and NIck (albeit in easier zone starts), Semin is right there with both of them in Corsi and doesn’t have either of them to lean on.
Johansson spent a lot of the early part of the year getting absolutely murdered on the possession stats.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, that’s what I’d thought. So you’re using the Corsi Rel QComp simply as a measure of quality of competition and the Corsi Rel as the possession metric and ending up with “He had roughly the same possession stats as 8 and 19 while facing markedly tougher competition,” correct?
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In easier starts, so without the coefficients to hand, that may be a wash.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. Thanks for clarifying.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
One more thing—AO’s Corsi Rel was around 3 sometime about halfway through the season, so if he finished around 11, he played the last half of the season around 19 (his rate from last year in more disadvantaged situations). If you believe something one-time-ish was up with AO, well, there’s that.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
And 19 is mind-blowingly high for a guy playing middle-of-the-pack zone starts.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
No, for all that Semin was positive in Corsi Rel, Johansson was negative.
Or maybe you’re snarking on Staal carrying the Penguins and I’m missing it.
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by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
5
I expected this, I know he can give more.
I like him on one year deals, it gives us flexibility. I’d trade him, but only for a First round pick (and change). A 10 for him is 50 goals and 100 points. There is no doubt he has the talent in him.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I voted a 5. The inconsistency I expected. The excellent possession and defensive play I expected. I gave him an extra point for carrying the offense through the first portion of the season. And then he lost that extra point for his terrible production for the remainder of the season.
It was a very Semin season.
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by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 9, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions
What I fear is that in a sense, he is “ruined.” You could opine that a guy who plays 65 games a year with 30 goals a year without the benefit of a bona fide center playing regularly with him, that he’d go through the roof that sort of center appeared. I’m doubting it. After six years, he has developed (or perhaps more precisely, adapted) a style of play to his surroundings, and getting a real-live center on his line might not have the benefits folks assume. He would have to unlearn a lot of habits to take advantage of that kind of resource.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Well, he does play somewhat regularly with Backstrom, so it’s not like he’s completely unused to playing with a good center. Since he doesn’t totally fail when we ice the Care Bears line, doesn’t that indicate he still knows how to play with a good center?
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by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if “regularly” acurately describes how often he plays with 19. Perhaps, “occasionly” would be a more apt description.
Varly, Varly...errrrrr.....NEU-VY, NEU-VY! Pp
Well, regularly when we were losing.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
eh, I think he’s got “habits” that Ovi could learn a ton from, in terms of looking for teammates when entering the O zone, etc.. That’s not at all to argue that Semin’s a more valuable or better player (he’s clearly not), I just don’t see what he does that you think isn’t conducive to working with better linemates.
It’s almost as if Semin is the “center” of his line in the offensive zone. He is (usually) the best playmaker, certainly the best puckhandler, and (unless with Ovechkin) the best scorer. If you bring a center with skills to play with him on a consistent basis, what does Semin have to (or should) give up, and does he do that; or, does the center’s skill wither on the vine while Semin does his thing?
One thing that would be intriguing (not that it would happen) would be Semin being centered by a Jeff Carter, who is a somewhat unconventional center in that he is not as adept a playmaker as is normally associated with the position. He strikes me as a more opportunistic sort who might play off Semin’s strengths pretty well.
If you've read this far...seek help.
Semin and Carter would make one hell of a power-versus-power line.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don’t they also have dominating potential, too?
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by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Carter at least has been seriously hampered by injuries. I don’t think he disappears as much as people like to knock him for. And Semin is just streaky, not a playoff choker.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I’m not saying Semin’s a playoff choker, but he does disappear for several games at a time because he’s streaky. Does Carter really seem like an ideal fit for the Caps based on their deficiencies?
I’d love Carter. Great on D, plays C, tons of offensive talent. Got all the size you need. I’d take him and his contract in a heart beat.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I do. The injuries, if they continue or become recurring (i.e. same spot) will bother me, but at his age I think it’s mostly just really bad luck. I think he’s had foot, knee, shoulder. I’m sure I’m missing something else. If he hurts the same shoulder again, then I’ll be worried. I can definitely see the trepidation, though. Especially on that contract.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Hmm, maybe he’s better than I thought. I always had a perception of him as a goal scorer first, everything else second. Mike Richards always gets praise as the heart and soul guy on that team.
You have a good point there. But it seems that Flyers fans are especially critical of Carter for some reason. Yes, Carter has been streaky in the past when it comes to scoring goals, specifically the 2008-2009 season when he was going neck and neck with Ovi for the goals scored lead but he tailed off but Ovi kept giong.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
He seemed to do well/better with Arnott, so I’m still holding out on this one. At the very least, I think he would do better with a consistent center rather than a carousel, regardless of who or how good the center is.
For the record, I expected less from Sasha, so I started off with a six (for unexpected first half, being a decent player in all situations, defensive prowess…), -1 for the second half, +1 for taking fewer penalties than I expected and being a little more physical than I expected. Better playoffs than I expected too.
Having watched Semin with, first, Sergei Fedorov, then with Arnott, he seems to play on his “best behavior” with players that command respect (read: old, with Cups).
If you've read this far...seek help.
Or maybe those players he thinks he can trust with the puck. After playing so long with Fleischmann…
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by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I tend to think this is a big part of what happens with Semin, whether it’s right or wrong of him to be that way, but sometimes I get the sense he looks up, sees who is available for a scorching pass, doesn’t like the options, and goes it alone.
Are you not entertained?
I voted 7, though I probably should have voted 5. He undershot offensive expectations (though in hindsight, I should have expected that, given his high PDOs the last two years) but made himself a legitimate two-way forward by the numbers, not just by the eyes.
Does Semin still fit on a more defensive-minded Capitals squad?
If so, should the Caps invest in a veteran, skilled center that can get more out of Semin, or is it time to consider trading him?
I don’t think it’ll take the specifics of a “veteran, skilled center”…how about a good center, simply? I’ve wondered if maybe, in the long run, Marjo is AO’s ideal center (more up-tempo game) while Backstrom is Semin’s (control the pace, two-way). If nothing else, plop Laich in as 2C come postseason, assuming 21 is back.
If he stays, what will it take for Semin to earn a 10 rating next year?
Conn Smythe Trophy with 40+ goals, over point/gm, playing toughs.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
5
Let’s see:
1) Lots of quality offensive zone play
2) Sick goals and moves with the puck
3) Missed 17 games due to injury
4) Turnovers leading to chances in the defensive end
5) Stick penalties in the offensive end
Yeah, a typical Sasha Season… so he gets a five… it was about what I expected.
To get a 10: 70 games, 35-40 goals, and at least a conference finals appearance.
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy...
4
There’s no question in my mind about who’s driving the bus on the second line. Alexander Semin is a difference-maker in all three phases (ES, PP, PK), in both possession and finishing.
He took teammates that aren’t as able as AO and Backstrom and produced results that were nearly as good, possession-wise.
He played approximately the number of games I expected from him.
That said, he didn’t play all that well on the PP (not as well as I expected him to, at any rate) and after the first little while of the season, his finishing wasn’t where I expect it to be.
I expect more from Alexander Semin, but not too much more.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 11:26 AM EDT reply actions
This is where I come out. All the good puck possession stuff is stuff I expected. 28 goals is less than I expected. Pretty good in the playoffs, but he didn’t really take over like I know he can. Sounds overall like a 4 to me.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 9, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo.
4 for me, for the same reasoning.
Definitely seems to respond to a veteran center.
Another thing I wonder about is whether he would respond to playing on the line with a grittier winger. He seems to wither when he becomes the focus of the physical play from the other team, yet if he had somebody who could take some of the other teams attention by being a bit of a gritty pest, I think he would get a little more space and confidence, and also tend to be able to “get angry” from the ancillary rough-stuff while not being the main focus of it (which makes him shut down). As in all other aspects of his game, he seems to need to have just the right mix of “anger”… too little and he’s disinterested, too much and he shuts down, the goldilocks amount seems to be when he’s a part of the rough-stuff but not the center of it.
Great. Now I have to change my name to "Jaromir meet Alex".
by Chris meet Alex on Jun 9, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
5
I’m out of words for this guy, but not out of patience yet. Easily the most confounding talent to wear our red that I can recall.
On a functional note, it’s odd that he’s listed as a left wing when he works the right side most of the time, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him move to 2LW if when Laich departs, and move F-16 to a proper scoring line spot on the other side.
I root harder for the doomed.
Then who do you put in Fehr’s spot for the first half of the season? Chimera? Resign Sturm? I think it’s too early to be giving Fehr a roster spot. He’ll have to earn his way back onto the team when he gets back, because I don’t think we can afford to plan to have him come back and instantly fit into the second line.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Both Chimera and Sturm are LW’s, and I don’t see Sturm coming back at his current level of cake anyway. It would be a new warm body at 3RW, perhaps AGordon, perhaps Sjogren, or someone else currently outside the organization—Caps are very thin on that side above the grinder level.
I root harder for the doomed.
But who do you put at 2RW? If Laich is gone and Fehr is hurt, Semin and Chimera are our only second/third line wingers.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If Laich is gone and Fehr is hurt, Semin and Chimera are our only second/third line wingers.
And Chimera being a quality 2nd or 3rd line player on a team with Cup aspirations is a stretch.
During an off year, it’s a stretch. But a guy who’s scored double digit goals in all but one season since the lockout, and brings speed and grit, is a pretty decent third liner. And that’s what he usually is.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on role, I think. Soft minutes gritty scoring third line? Sure. Checking third line? Disaster waiting to happen.
To bring this back on topic, I think Semin has been good enough this season to warrant giving up some of his offensive zone draws to AO.
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by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If Laich disappears, we are going to be in the market for a scoring wing no matter what. What’s available may determine what side Sasha plays.
I root harder for the doomed.
That’s why I think we’ll be in the market for someone like Ville Leino or Chris Higgins, or maybe Kris Versteeg if we go the trade route.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I was always under the impression that they put Semin on RW so they could overlap him with Ovi and Backs. Get old man Knuble off early and Semin on early kind of thing, and it makes for an easier line switch if the Care Bears need to go out there.
4
I expected him to be inconsistent, but I also expected more offense. If he’d gotten 30+ goals, it would have been a 5. to get a 10 next season, he would need to get 35+ goals, cut down on the penalties, and turn the 2nd line into a threat that will take some of the pressure off Ovie/Backs.
Matt Bradley: He has sensitive skin, no?
7
I start at 6, the high side of meets expectations for me, getting there for (1) his possession dominance, (2) being a one-man 2d scoring line for a team suddenly, desperately in need of scoring, and…
bump him to a 7 for (3) his willingness to sign a 1 yr deal, which is awesome for the team and roster & cap mgt, but more than a bit crazy for him given how much late career money he’s undoubtedly costing himself and how much compensation/injury risk he’s taking on in 1 year deals. My expectations were for one of 2 outcomes, both bad for the team: he would walk after this season or he’d convince GMGM to lock him up for years at a huge price. Heck, this is probably worth more than a 1 point bump, but the 6 was on the generous side of the 5/6 split, so 7 feels right.
If he had a decent center or finisher on his line, I believe you’d see the points rise commensurately. He’s still among the slickest passers on the team, but he so infrequently pays with anyone who can finish the chances he creates.
I’d also like to see him get more PK time — he’s a legit penalty killer and far, far and away our most dangerous shorthanded threat.
OvechkinGR8 commented:
4
Wow, I’m shocked at the distribution of "grades"…2/3 of you all think he played as you expected or better than expected…
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Sorry – meant to say that I deleted the comment b/c I thought it was frakking up the HTML on the site somehow, but it was actually Acer’s comment that was (which I deleted… it just read “10cc”).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
It wasn’t a vote, but a pop culture reference-I didn’t vote. Think of it as 5 for good Sasha and 5 for bad if that’s easier to wrap your head around.
"You just have a sense," Holland says. "The type of player you want, the type of situation you reference for your next game, you see it."
by Acer Jonesy's Laughker on Jun 9, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Where are all these 10s coming from!? WTF!
5. This was pretty much exactly as expected. Note, not wanted, expected. I wanted more in the playoffs (don’t we all), but after the past couple seasons, I didn’t expect more than a few goals and assists.
Honestly though, 10? Really?! And whats with the 1s!?
JP, is there a way to prevent voting without signing in? Would be nice to get rid of robo-votes and jerkstores.
JP, is there a way to prevent voting without signing in? Would be nice to get rid of robo-votes and jerkstores.
No. Forget about the votes – enjoy the discussion.
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by J.P. on Jun 9, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Still amusing that he has more votes so far today than Schultz had all of yesterday. We’re allowed to chuckle, right? Does anyone remember laughter?
Comrades, leave me here a little, while as yet 't is early morn:
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by sydtron on Jun 9, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hm. Interesting question. Maybe I’ll try that.
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Is there any way to track the robo-votes? Do we know who’s doing this?
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
This is weird… you would expect some kind of bell curve, not a completely random distribution….
Winnipeg? Winnipeg??? Oy...
by MikeL-Pivonka on Jun 9, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you really find it wierd? I would be surprise to see a bell shaped curved on anything Sasha.
You know Sasha, all over the ice.
What doesnt kill you makes you stronger.
by BetterOffWith28 on Jun 9, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
weird sp
What doesnt kill you makes you stronger.
by BetterOffWith28 on Jun 9, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
5
I expected him to be maddeningly inconsistent, both in the regular season and post-season and got exactly that. I’ve come around on the idea that unless the Caps get extremely lucky, they’ll never get where they need to go relying on Semin’s production as much as they currently do. When he disappears, the entire 2-4 line production goes with him.
I think a lot of the hatred comes from the fact that Semin embodies everything that’s holding this team back. He doesn’t do any of the dirty work. He freelances and strays from the pack when team discipline is needed in the worst way. Frankly, he just doesn’t seem very engaged sometimes and it sets a bad example for the rest of the team.
I want my .75 cents.
5
Well, it was pretty much a Bell curve before the ridiculousness hit. Anyway to prevent that?
I just resurface from graduation activities to this. Sasha was better than what I expected (hoped for) in some ways, but also not. The whole season was disappointing in the end. He does need to really cut down on the penalties. The injury was unfortunate; hopefully his groin doesn’t go the way of Poti’s. Scoring was down pretty much across the board, so I see that more as a function of the team changes and struggles.
I expect next season to be better for Sasha in terms of scoring, hopefully health, fewer penalties, and further development of 2-way play. Finally, I hope he’s still here by the end. The excitement he brings regardless of the outcome makes the game all the more interesting.
Are you not entertained?
5
Simple math.
(Good Sasha + Bad Sasha)/2=5
"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net" -Brooks Laich
by sami426 on Jun 9, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
5
If any player on this team played more exactly as I thought they would, I’d be hard pressed to name him. It’s like Phil Hartman saying "Good Sasha, bad Sasha "
A danger to myself and others on the ice
by can't skate on Jun 9, 2011 11:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
6
He was the only top-six forward whose shot % in regular season didn’t drop compared to 09-10. Fewer shots, fewer goals. And all this with endless juggling of his line… It was good to see him back to his (quasi)normal early in playoffs.
It seems that there’s something bad brewing between BB and Semin. You remember a report about some Russian waitress or someone talking to Semin about his frustration with BB. Not sure that the situation can blow away but still it leaves bad taste.
Cup, please.
This was a hard vote but I gave him a 7. While numbers wise he did not exceed my expectations, I attribute a lot of that to the change in style of play. Overall however I thought he improved his play. I believe he is one of the best defensive forwards on the team. I would like to know his takeaway giveaway ration. While he gets criticized a lot for turning the puck over, he gets little praise for the number of times he steals the puck which unfortunately results in some highsticking penalties. My hope for next season is that he plays with a topend center who can score some goals. Semin after Backstrom is the best passer on the team and if he had a center who could score it would be a great combination. I was hoping that center would be Kuznetsov but that is not going to be the case. I am not sure whether Marcus can develop into a scorer or not, at least he is not afraid to shoot, he just needs a better shot. Finally, I think it would be foolish to trade Semin unless you can get a top 6 winger in return which I doubt that you can. We need him and his scoring otherwise we are reduced to a one line team.
Proud to be a Caps fan. Its a Great Day for Hockey.
While numbers wise he did not exceed my expectations, I attribute a lot of that to the change in style of play.
Not picking on you personally, but I’m surprised that people continue to get the order of what happened wrong: we stopped scoring, then BB changed the approach, not the other way around.
Semin was that personified. He stopped scoring long before we changed the system.
by CarlosLA on Jun 9, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bingo.
After the losing streak reached eight games, Boudreau decided it was time for an even more radical change.
Boudreau, who came into the NHL as a guy known for preaching aggressive, attacking hockey, decided it was time for his troops to pull back a bit.
Semin hadn’t scored in seven games at that point, and the team as a whole was stuggling mightily to score – two goals per game over the previous 15 games.
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Actually, here’s probably a more accurate pinpointing of when the change took place (from my hero, Elliotte Friedman):
It was their first meeting after a gruesome 7-0 loss to the Rangers on Dec. 12.
“We had a day off after that game,” said Brooks Laich, after the Capitals won the Winter Classic.
“I remember thinking we were going to get a visit from the GM when we got back.”
Instead, they got a message from head coach Bruce Boudreau. Something along the lines of: “Guys, we’re going to play the trap.” It is the first time in his coaching career Boudreau’s used it. [Link]
Now, that post goes on to assert that it was b/c the defense – and not the offense – was struggling:
The trap is hockey’s Kardashian sister: annoying, dull, something you wish would go away quickly. However, it’s very difficult to win without using some variation of it in the new speed-kills NHL. You need a perfect roster and, after that New York skunking, good on Boudreau for realizing he didn’t have one.
Prior to that defeat, the Capitals played a “man-to-man” type of defence in the neutral zone. The problem came when one of them was beaten on a defensive assignment. Actually, it didn’t have to be a mistake, it could be even be something accidental, like a player falling.
One mishap meant the entire system was blown.
It becomes a bigger issue when quickness is a problem. With Scott Hannan, Jeff Schultz and John Erskine on the blue-line, they just weren’t able to lessen the gap between them and the forwards.
If the guys up front were beaten, the opposition attack had plenty of room to gather speed before hitting the defenceman. It was a recipe for defeat.
…
Boudreau made one other change – on the weakside of defensive coverage – but wouldn’t discuss that one.
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I’m not voting until I read more of the discussion, however I have one question (actually the same one I had yesterday in the Schultz forum):
How does Semin compare to other similarly compensated wingers?
by 8vechkin on Jun 9, 2011 12:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Other W between $6-7MM are: Marleau, Kane, Kovalchuk, Briere, Smyth, Sedin, Elias and Cammalleri.
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by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 9, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks to me like a mix of better players and worse players.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d take Semin over Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk brings nothing but offense, while Semin has a lot of defensive ability.
Matt Bradley: He has sensitive skin, no?
by timmyv38 on Jun 9, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Alex Semin has reached 40 goals — his career high — once. Since the lockout, Kovalchuk has been below 40 goals just once. Semin has never outscored Kovalchuk.
I think that one is an easy decision — take Kovalchuk.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 9, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If hockey were only about offense, then Kovalchuk would be the guy. It isn’t, and Kovalchuk doesn’t do anything but offense.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Semin does much more than Kovalchuk though. Kovalchuk plays less defense than Ovie ever has done and has no physicality. I’ll take a lower goal scorer with good defense over him any time, as long as we still have Ovie.
Matt Bradley: He has sensitive skin, no?
So we’re suddenly taking Semin with a 10+ goals scored handicap because of his intangibles? No thanks. Bad Sasha is bad. And Kovalchuk is a more rounded player than his reputation.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 9, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
By what evidence?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 10, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Cammelleri? Smyth? No way.
Kane is every bit the offensive talent that Semin is, but he’s not the defensive player that Semin is.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It sounds like you’re underestimating Semin’s defensive abilities – dude’s pretty good in his own end and very good to elite on the PK.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe so- I don’t know enough about Kane to formulate an argument, however, if Semin is so strong defensively, why is it even a question if he fits on a defensively minded Caps team?
Does Semin still fit on a more defensive-minded Capitals squad?
Not sure I would describe Semin as “good in his own end”. He has great defensive numbers, but that’s more because of his puck possession talents and the fact that his presence prevents opposing defensemen from pinching and taking chances. His defensize zone positioning is decent, but his hustle and intensity leave a lot to be desired. He’s not one to break up the opponent’s cycle game with hard work on the boards, and he’s been known to cheat on the breakout. Overall, I would say that Semin’s defensive zone play is okay for a top 6 winger. There are worse out there; there are better.
He certainly has the ability to play top-notch defense in his own zone, but that’s more a reflection of his skating abilities and good stick. Anyone with that talent should be able to play defense if he wants to.
by Kareem E. on Jun 9, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t really care if he rides a unicorn onto the ice; If he gets great defensive results, then how can you avoid classifying him as anything but a good defensive player? I’m not judging him by what he could be if he had Steve Yzerman’s work ethic, I’m judging by his results in this particular instance. Conventional or not, he gets it done in his own end.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Semin have good defensive results? Undeniable.
Is Semin a good defensive player, the type you trot out to line up against the opponent’s top line for a d-zone face-off with 30 seconds to go? Not a chance.
It’s like saying Shaq is a great shooter because he shot 58% and averaged 24 ppg in his career. But Shaq’s not a great shooter, he’s actually quite horrible at shooting anything farther than 6 feet. His other assets have carried him through so that he never had to rely on his poor shooting skill. I see it similarly with Semin (although Semin’s defense is not as bad as Shaq’s shot!).
OK, so Semin exhibits great keepthepuckoutofthenetness. Which, IMO, is more important than “defense,” as you’re describing it. Defense is an end to the means — preventing goals against. No matter what you want to call it, the puck doesn’t go in the net behind Semin all that often when he’s on the ice. (Now, when he’s off the ice serving a penalty, that’s another story).
By the way, I wouldn’t mind seeing Semin on the ice for more late game faceoffs. Wing support is crucial to winning faceoffs, and Semin is so skilled, I have to believe he could help someone like Boyd Gordon win that key draw.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 9, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Semin was one of the guys that played against the top lines (along with Mackan and Laich, but BB didn’t match them hard). He’s absolutely a guy you trot out against those lines.
Moving back to your Shaq analogy, is Shaq (at the point in his career where Semin is now) someone you’d want on the floor down by two for your last possession? Damn right he is. Because he’s 58% likely to make his shot, which is a lot more than anyone else on the floor and if you don’t double him, he’s going to score, which opens up a shot for someone else. It doesn’t matter that his putative shooting skill isn’t large, it matters that he can put the ball in the basket with extreme efficiency.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 9, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with those guys – Semin is an outstanding defender when he chooses to be. Do I want him on the ice at the end of a game? Sure. Perhaps the better question is which two wings would you rather have out there? Laich, since he can also take draws, perhaps, and… ?
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Probably hard to find many players like Semin on one-year deals, His cap hit would be (or I’d hope it’d be) way lower on a multi-year deal.
you’ve got the thread of an incredibly important point, but I don’t think you’ve drawn the right inference. Kovalchuk costs $6.7 against the cap until… 2025! Marleau $6.9 thru age 34. Briere $6.5MM thru age 37.
Semin’s contract is incredibly favorable to the Caps. The next one may not be, but the last couple have been without a doubt.
Long term contracts are great when you’re buying out future UFA years at a discount in exchange for some certainty. There’s zero evidence to suggest a long term open market deal for Semin would come in at any meaningful discount to ~$6MM.
Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky, Kristian Huselius, and Shane Doan. Not quite as expensive, but they are on one year deals. Personally, I’d trade Semin straight up for Doan or for Penner and picks/prospects because I think we need a top-line power forward to replace Knuble (and the always injured Fehr, and the possibly departing Laich), and the 2+M in cap room those deals would provide is nice.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
They may have one year left, but those were all multi-year deals when signed.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 9, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I misunderstood what he was saying. In that case, I agree with Vinn.
Founding member of the "Bring Silent Jay McClement to Washington" club.
by Flash in the Pan on Jun 9, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with Sasha is that I have two sets of expectations: (Good Sasha): I expect him to be all world, the robin to ovi’s batman, 45Gs, 40As, several shorties, mentally tough, carries the team through stretches, but then (Bad Sasha) I also expect Sasha to be Sasha: inconsistency, flashes of brilliance, moodiness, dumb penalties. Good Sasha gets a five. Bad Sasha gets a five. I guess Sasha breaks the system for me.
Everything sounds smarter in Tikkanesse....
4
As everyone else has already said, his inconsistency and streaky play are no longer any sort of a surprise.
Minus one point because there was still a tiny little part of me that thought he’d grow and develop into a less bipolar player. That tiny little part of me has now been surgically removed by a Sasha-esque stick foul.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on Jun 9, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I will say, however, that if there are changes made to say, the coaching staff, that tiny little glimmer of hope for a more consistent Sasha will reappear. I really liked what I saw in Semin when Arnott joined him, and I still have faith that with the right kind of leadership Semin can become a really scary-good player. But until that happens, Two-Faced Sasha will have to do.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on Jun 9, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
look at that, Sasha was consistent at something! The exact same shooting percentage in the regular season and playoffs.
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I’ll behead Kareem and then correct it. Thanks.
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by J.P. on Jun 9, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
6
Sasha was about the Sasha I expected, both good and bad. I gave him a 6 instead of a 5 because he really showed up at the beginning of the season, plus he was better than I expected against the Rangers, and also because of his possession stats.
4
With Semin I’ve learned to accept that he’s consistently inconsistent. Like the Rink Wrap said, he can be a dominant player at times, carrying the team while being invisible or even worse, visible for all the wrong reasons at other times. That said, I think he does a great job defensively on the PK and at even strength. The skills are all there, it’s just a matter of finding that elusive consistency. I gave him a 4 because whether it was the change in the team’s philosphy or due to playing through injury, his offensive numbers didn’t meet my expectations, plus he was a part of the anemic power play.
I think Semin can fit with a more defensive system, or any system that matter. He has the skills to play in just about any system, he just needs to maintain his smarts and his effort level. I think having a bonafide 2nd line center will do wonders for the Caps as a team, and part of that will hopefully coaz even more offense out of Semin. I probably wouldn’t trade him because his reputation as an inconsistent player and being enigmatic will prevent the Caps from getting good value.
To get a 10 next year, it’s simple; he has to be the great Sasha we saw last October for 65 games.
Semin is a 25-30 goal scorer in the Caps defensive system. If the Caps stick with that mentality and system next season, I just don’t see a fit. $6.7M – even on single year contracts – is a lot to tie up for that level of production.
He’s a point-per-game player and a proven goal scorer. Plus if we go back to your recap:
Lest there be any doubt, Alex Semin is a puck possession machine. His SC% of 57.5% was tops on the team (minimum 20 GP); he finished third on the team in GAETAN at +27.0; his 5-on-5 ON/60 was the runaway leader at +1.59; his 5-on-5 CORSI of 11.1 was second on the team; his 5-on-5 shots allowed per 60 was the best of any top 9 forward at 25.4 and he was third overall in 5-on-5 GA/60 at 1.73
$6.7 mil may be a bit high but isn’t unreasonable. I’d argue that he’s worth more than that to the Caps. Who else do they have to take some offensive pressure off of Ovechkin or replace those 25-30 goals? Everyone’s scoring on the team was down last year, and it wasn’t just because of a system change. If we are going to be parting with players based on salaries and last year’s stats, Ovi should be first out the door if he’s only a 30-35 goal player making $10 mil per season, no?
He’ll score more than 30, I bet. He shot under his average at 5on5 and saw reduced TOI.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Well he scored 40 last year playing with a crazy hot Caps team, so no. The only way I see it happening is if the Caps trade for a good 2C for him, he doesn’t get injured, and he has a personality transplant to eradicate Bad Sasha, or at least reduce his appearances.
Not on the Caps. Maybe one day he’ll be the focal point of some mediocre team’s offense and then everything will funnel through him. Maybe with a lot of luck he pulls it off then but I really doubt it.
Hmm… you think he has a better shot at 50 as “the guy” than when he can play without being the opposition’s focal point?
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“The guy” might see an extra 3-4 minutes a night, half of that on the PP, too.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 9, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It also means tougher defenses and, probably most important considering who we’re talking about, higher scrutiny of his play overall.
Put me firmly in the “he’s best as a complimentary player” camp.
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No need to trade Semin to put him on the top line. Just stick him up there with Ovechkin and Backstrom…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 9, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
If he ever plays an 82 game season do I think its possible? No.
He’s a 30 goal scorer who had 1 great season and barely hit 40.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
5
Consistently inconsistent. The highs were really high, the lows were pretty low. Perfectly trending Sasha.
by BradleyFightingVehicle on Jun 9, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions
4
a lot of what I expected…but less impactful then he should be really. Low side of expectations for me.
I think Semin still has a place on a more defensively oriented team, and I actually think the need for a player like him is even MORE so with the less aggressive offensive style we saw this past year. I’d like to see him playing with a consistent centerman, whether that is a “skilled veteran” like Arnott, or a youngster like Johansson.
to get a 10, Sasha needs to actually live up to his hype. 40+ goals, play the whole season, deliver in the playoffs, continue to dominate in puck possession, basically be an all around bad-ass and do it consistently.
Leaning 4 from regular season drop in production.
Leaning +1 from playoffs. He did great in the NYR round, actually showing up and all.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
3
I disagree with the idea that a 5 means “the same old Semin.” My expectation is for a player of his caliber and contract to improve every year and become more consistent, not remain an enigma. I expected him to improve, not remain stagnant.
That was the story of the past season. Hot the first two months, especially during November. Then, in early Dec, word leaked out (in the Post) about an injury that kept Sasha out of practice but he continued to play games but was not effective at all. He was sick for a day and missed practice, played the next day and got a major penalty and there was speculation that he’d be suspended, but he played the next day (infamous Rangers game). He then missed the next week or so due to “lower body” injury. Was that the beginning of the groin injury or had it begun in the early part of that month. In any case, Semin missed a week but played in a game (vs NJ at home) the day after being considered “doubtful”. He was not particularly effective during that time frame (when presumably playing hurt.) December turned into January and he got injured (or aggravated an existing injury) and then he was out for nearly a month before returning in February.
It’s ironic that we heard more reports on Semin’s injuries before they were confirmed than we heard on Nicky and Ovi, especially when Semin is a relatively silent person.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
So what’s your score?
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Jun 9, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
5
Mostly typical Semin. Was thinking of a 4 because I would have liked to see more on the offensive side, but he was partially injured, so yeah.
Primary assist to this score of 5 goes to Jason Arnott.
I might probably coincidentally actually occasionally maybe-ly have something interesting to say
Now the question is … what does the Caps management think of Semin? Back on Tuesday night, I had posted the initial report of the rumor. (Later, I reported that Irbe had told the grandfather of one of the goalie campers about his impending departure. Irbe also said that Semin MUST go.) Now that the story of Irbe’s departure turns out to be true, I’m now wondering about the Caps’ management’s opinion of Sasha as well.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Just because the story that Irbe is leaving is true doesn’t mean that the rumors about why he’s leaving are likewise true. It is very easy to take a small fact or comment and spin it into a completely bogus report. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Jun 10, 2011 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m now wondering about the Caps’ management’s opinion of Sasha as well.
I’m now wondering what your rating of his year would be.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on Jun 10, 2011 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
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