Why the Caps Can't Let Semyon Varlamov Go
by J.P. on Jun 23, 2011 11:01 AM EDT
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Semyon Varlamov has options.
On the one hand, the 23-year-old netminder can continue his professional hockey career in the best league in the world, where he'll have to re-earn the job as his team's number one netminder (if he ever truly held it in the first place) while playing for less money and a goaltender coach with whom he has reportedly had professional differences after the man who was hand-picked to tutor him parted ways with the team.
On the other hand, there's the lure of going home to Russia to play for his favorite coach and mentor in a (presumably guaranteed) starter role for potentially significantly more money.
Tough decision?
Varly himself has expressed a desire to stay in the NHL, even if he sacrifices a few rubles to do so... emphasis on "a few" - as Slava Malamud reported earlier in the week, "[w]hen pressed on how big a pay cut he would be willing to take, Varlamov replied: "Not a really huge one.'"
And why would he? Varlamov is coming off a season in which he was one of just four NHL goaltenders to appear in more than 25 games and have a goals against average of less than 2.25 and a save percentage above .920. The other three players to meet those criteria? This season's Vezina Trophy finalists.
So what we're left with is the Caps negotiating with a pending Restricted Free Agent who has pretty good leverage, despite the fact that the team has two other NHL-caliber (and likely NHL-ready) talents in net. Whether or not Varlamov is currently the best of the three (spoiler alert: he is), losing a recent first-round pick and potential franchise goalie for nothing - the return the Caps would get if Varly bolts - would be brutally poor asset management, despite George McPhee's publicly indifferent, "If he wants to go to the KHL, let him go" attitude (which is wholly understandable in light of the number of Russians he has drafted and the message he wants to send to them).
Which brings us to the brass tacks of the whole situation - how much? The offer Malamud reported as being on the table in Russia is worth roughly $4 million (which is taxed at a lower rate than it would be here, but is also not guaranteed and is subject to, um, "renegotiation", even mid-season). There is no indication as to the term of the potential KHL deal, but given the nature of those contracts, that might be relatively meaningless information even if it was readily available.
From the Caps' side of things, one might reasonably expect that the team offered Varlamov the same deal that Michal Neuvirth signed, which kicks in late next week - two years at $1.15 million per. And after the year Neuvy had, can Varly really ask for more? Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.
When Neuvirth signed his extension last September, he was a Calder-eligible goalie with a career 2.80 GAA and .910 save percentage facing an incumbent starter and a widespread notion that the team might need to acquire a veteran netminder to get them to the next level. In many ways Neuvirth bet against himself and lost, as he would certainly command a more favorable deal if he was still negotiating today. Ultimately, using Neuvirth's deal as a benchmark for Varlamov discussions is largely meaningless.
The range for a new Varlamov deal, then, is established as somewhat north of $1.15 million and "not a really huge" drop from $4 million. Does $2.5 million get it done? $3 million? It's impossible to say, of course. But if you want a bit of perspective, how about the fact that the Caps could give Varlamov $3.4 million and not take a cap hit from their three goalies combined that would be as much as the any of the top-10 individual goalie cap hits for 2010-11? Viewing the goaltending position - and the two bargains the Caps already have locked in there - as a whole certainly makes any perceived overpayment on Varlamov more palatable.
And what about the ever-present injury concerns? Well, they've been ever-present and there's no real reason to believe that they won't be going forward. But the impact they would have on the team with regards to the cap aren't crippling because the team has a capable - and dirt cheap - third-string goaltender in Braden Holtby. So with a healthy Varlamov, they take his cap hit. With a short-term-injured Varlamov, they take his cap hit plus Holtby's tiny ~$637,777 hit to fill that roster spot. And if there's a longer-term injury to Varly and the team doesn't feel comfortable with a Neuvirth/Holtby tandem, Long-Term Injured Reserve is likely an option. Essentially, while "they shouldn't pay a lot for the guy" might carry weight as an argument, "they shouldn't pay a lot for the guy because he's always hurt" doesn't - the injuries in and of themselves won't hamper the team unreasonably.
All of this is not to say that the Caps should simply cave in to Varlamov's demands. They shouldn't. They should get the best deal they can for the team. But the key word there is "deal" - the team can't let Varlamov walk over a relatively small amount of money.
McPhee boasts a bit about his team's good fortune at the draft in having Russian players fall to them "because they'll come to play in Washington." The question now is, will the team do what it takes to keep them here?
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Good Article J.P. Well stated.
When I'm mourning the death of a loved one, the first thing I do is read Roger Ebert's Tweets.
Thanks (to you and others).
The one point that gives me pause about the Varly stuff (and I allude to it a bit in the post) is that while GMGM can’t let him walk, he also can’t totally cave because then he’s told Kuznetsov and Orlov and whomever that they can pull the same shit and extort a better deal than they might deserve. Obviously, that’s not a good message to send. Hell, maybe Semin’s deals have already sent that message to Varly. Has GMGM painted himself into a corner with all of these Russians? It’s a delicate balancing act, to be sure, and part of the reason “these Russians” scare some teams.
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Paying him a little more to stay is okay as long as it’s a shorter term deal for now. I’d say a 2 year deal would be about right in my opinion. I definitely think he should have gotten the chance to turn the tide against Tampa in Game 3, and his numbers when healthy were outstanding. He has to prove he can stay healthy for the long haul of a season, but the value that is there is undeniable.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree re. Tampa and Game 3. The Caps have shown a real tendency to go down with the ship with regards to G in the playoffs, which is annoying.
Back to the substantive portion of this post, I’d be very surprised if the team lets him walk. GMGM has shown no past tendencies to cut off his nose in order to spite his face.
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Not playing Varly against Tampa was STUPID.
It was fairly obvious that the Caps needed that change if only to provide a psychological shift in a series they were quickly losing…Boudreau screwed up the Montreal series in reverse the year before—sticking with Varly too much—and he gave up a crucial softish goal in the last game or two. Another reason why Boudreau needs to go, IMO.
by slipperyice on Jun 23, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Up 3-1 in the series, with the highest scoring offense in years, and your goalie allows 2, 3, and 2 GA in the final 3 games of the series? If you had told me that he would do that ahead of time I would take it every day of the week and think no way we lose all 3 of those games. It’s hard to win when you HAVE to shutout the opposition since your guys are only putting in 1 a game over last 3 in a series.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair point, but he also could have stopped some of those goals and played better.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Probably, but he also made some pretty good saves as well in between periods of a lot of inactivity. While the shots against may have been pretty low in those games, we did give up quite a few quality chances and left him out to dry more than once.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, they had good chances, but the goals weren’t all on glowing opportunities. I’m not blaming him for everything, but he’s not a knight in shining armor. People are carried away remembering him against the Rags and he’s been very average since that series (although the Pens series he was great and then terrible, which has average aggregate totals).
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Agreed, I just would have liked to have seen him more than the guy having to come in to clean up someone else’s mess (2 out of the 3 series he’s played in), or even better behind this year’s team’s defense versus the “run and gun” BB style.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Up 3-1 in the series against the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the playoffs and the defense gives up 28, 21 and 16 shots in the final 3 games of the series? If you told me that ahead of time I would have thought that the goalie would have been able to hold the other team to 1 or fewer goals in at least one of those games. Varlamov didn’t lose the series for the Caps, but he didn’t win it either.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on Jun 23, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s what Ovie said about Varly’s contract from Alex Ovetjkin blog:
Semyon Varlamov is now without a contract. What should he do, stay in the NHL with a small salary or return to Russia?
Varlamov is already an experienced player. He knows what is what. Maybe Semyon just makes a calculated pause in negotiations. God help him to remain in Washington. Everyone loves and respects him.
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Vociferously agree.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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I’m not sure the Caps would really go too far above 2 million. Is Varly the clear number 1 even without the injury issues? The numbers suggest he is, but does Bruce see it that way? If he was the clear goalie of the future maybe the Caps offer more, given the situation he’s in, I don’t see it. This is probably where the inability to offer a games played bonus hurts.
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Whether he is or isn’t, I think the prudent move would be to find out the answer, even if it costs a bit more than the team would like.
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by J.P. on Jun 23, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not sure the Caps would really go too far above 2 million.
My bet is one just one year 2.5
With so much uncertainty, why go more than 1 year? And if it’s a bad decision for the $$ amount, then you only have to live with it for one year.
So you’re saying Varlamov won’t be traded to the Flyers? Damn.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 23, 2011 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
PHI has the largest urban park system in the nation — Bryz is signing for sure. You don’t need Varly.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yeah, but those parks aren’t exactly safe. I think he should go to New York and commute to Long Island from Manhattan.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 23, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think “we won’t have to pay him anyway” is a very good argument to sign a player. If the plan is to get another goalie, why not sign a real backup goalie? You know, someone who will actually be able to play in games and come off the bench if the starter needs to be pulled.
If we’re comparing him to a possible “real backup goalie”…I’d be curious to see what the average games played by NHL backups is in a season, as Varly did log 27 games last year.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think "we won’t have to pay him anyway" is a very good argument to sign a player.
Did someone make that argument?
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He played games when he was healthy, not necessarily the same games that would be played by a healthy backup that plays when the team needs it.
On the other hand, he certainly could have played more when he was healthy, but Bruce doesn’t handle goalies the same way as a lot of coaches do.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Slava posted on twitter that SKA is considering Plan B in case Varly can’t be lured away from NHL: trading for Barulin, the goalie from the WC. Perhaps if they trade for Barulin, they won’t want Varly anymore and he’ll lose his $4 million bargaining chip. Here’s a google translate article on Barulin.
Excellent article!
I think Neuvirth’s contract was kind of the bar being set (shrewd buisness tactic perhaps?) as far as what GMGM wanted to play for a goaltending duo. Maybe Neuvirth should have held out for more, but I think McPhee’s talks with Varly’s agent will keep coming back to that. I don’t think Varly should be making twice the money that his net partner makes, esp if they continue to share the work (1A and 1B).
I don’t think Varly should be making twice the money that his net partner makes, esp if they continue to share the work (1A and 1B).
Is this a case of Varly making too much though if he got paid that amount, or of Neuvirth “betting against himself and losing” as JP notes above? Neuvirth’s deal certainly looks shrewd now on the part of GMGM, but in truth he probably could have gotten much more if he had waited to sign an extension.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. Neuvy signed what turned out in retrospect to be a bad deal. That’s not Varly’s fault and it shouldn’t be his problem going forward.
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“Bad deal” is a bit too strong for me. Sure, he probably could have made more money, but at the same time we’re already seeing that this deal may have cemented him as the starter. It makes it easier to walk from Varlamov. We aren’t negotiating with two goalies now, so we aren’t over a barrel. If this deal means that long term it makes Neuvirth a solidified NHL number 1, then it’s still a good deal even if he left money on the table, IMO.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
“Bad deal” in a sense of simply, he could have gotten more. It’s a great deal for the team and may work out in Neuvirth’s favor long term. Just a question of actual dollar amount versus actual value. While I don’t think we should pay Varly anywhere close to the supposed $4 million KHL offer, I think his (and Neuvirth’s) is quite a bit north of $1.15 million as well.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, but the lower contract has boosted Neuvirth’s likelihood to be an NHL starter. I think that’s probably much more important to him at this stage in his career.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Agreed, which is why I agreed with your assessment that giving up dollars in the shorter term may help his career (and future dollars) out in the longer term. Just trying to keep the 2 debates separate: 1. Neuvy taking less money and how it affects just him, 2. The perceived idea that Neuvy’s deal is somehow relevant to Varly’s negotiations as a starting point in the worth of Varly’s value.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree Neuvirth’s K has no bearing on Varly’s other than the aspect where the Caps know they already have a No. 1-capable G locked up to a friendly salary.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
which is a point I’m going to insert in my reply to JP’s post just below this ;)
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I think an excellent example of this is Frans Nielsen’s 525k deal with the Islanders. A lot of people think he is greatly underpaid and that it is a bad contract for him. Nielsen is happy with it, even though he knows he probably could have gotten more money. The contract gave him what he was looking for: Security in knowing he would get NHL games and not get bumped down to the AHL. They money doesn’t matter in that regard. He has even admitted that he would have signed such a contract for a pair of shoes—jokingly of course, but the point remains.
"In the depths of winter, I learned there was in me an invincible summer" ~Albert Camus
Neuvy lowered his risk and took the sure thing. He could have done better on his next deal if he had waited. Not sure how that – in 20/20 hindsight and fully discounting the risk he avoided in signing when he did – isn’t a “bad” deal.
How did the deal cement him as the starter? His play did that (to the extent he’s cemented). And if the team was currently negotiating with both I’d think the team – not the players – would have more leverage in at least one respect because the guy who signed would presumably be “the guy.” There’s incentive there.
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Like F&B’s reply just above this, signing that deal gives the Caps the cheap option of Neuvy for 2 more years and could make letting Varly walk to the K much easier to stomach. In an indirect way, it could help cement Neuvy’s spot as the number 1 goalie.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I suppose, but I doubt Neuvy signed thinking, “I’m going to pull a Poti and leave money on the table so that they’ll tell Varly to kick rocks leaving me as the only option they have at #1G for at least a few months.”
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I wish Poti had “left money on the table” like Neuvirth likely did.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree, I don’t think Varly’s contract should be hancuffed to what Neuvy makes….but I don’t deal for the Capitals, GMGM does…..and I’m pretty sure that will come up a lot.
I’m sure it’s the focal point of their negotiation. But that doesn’t mean it’s not bullshit.
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Because if he didn’t sign, tried to play hard ball and then saw Varly get signed, he could have had himself placed out of the organization.
I also think you can’t just look at it ex post, the risk was real, and even in hindsight there should be some allowance for that. We know how it worked out, but if Varly stayed healthy or Holtby was better over a larger sample then maybe Neuvrith looks expendable. The 2 year deal makes him a more vital part of the team; there’s not much chance he goes anywhere. If he does, it’ll be for a ton of value coming back and mean he’s going to be a starter somewhere else. He went from the afterthought to a basically guaranteed NHL starter next season. Yes, his play helped, but the contract helps that as well.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I also think you can’t just look at it ex post, the risk was real, and even in hindsight there should be some allowance for that.
No question. I think I’ve made it clear that there was and value in avoiding that risk.
He went from the afterthought to a basically guaranteed NHL starter next season.
I think that’s a bit dramatic on both sides of the “to.” He won two-straight Calders and was entering the season with every chance to take the #1 spot on the defending Prez Trophy winner, and as of right now he’s not guaranteed anything next year other than probably a spot on an NHL roster.
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I think I’ve made it clear that there was and value in avoiding that risk.
But you keep going back to calling it a bad deal. That’s the disagreement. If ex ante it made sense with the info he had, then it shouldn’t be labeled as a bad deal. Is life insurance a bad deal for every year you don’t die (or health insurance when you don’t get sick/hurt)?
I think in this organization he was clearly the red-headed stepchild. He wasn’t ever given much chance to compete until Theo left. He was relegated to the AHL from the start. Maybe “afterthought” is strong, but “clearly the 2nd option” isn’t. And now he’s the incumbent starter on the team, and if a team trades for him he’ll be the presumed starter on that team. So I do think he’s guaranteed to start next season as an NHL starter, we’ll see what he does with it.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
“bad deal” maybe just in a strict dollars I’m making versus what I could have made had I waited to sign? Don’t want to speak for JP but that’s all he seems to be saying was “bad” about it for Neuvy.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. If Neuvy was an RFA today, could he reasonably expect to sign a two-year deal for more than $1.15m per year? I think the answer is unquestionably yes.
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Yeah, but sometimes money is less important. It’s all about what your priorities are. Regardless of whether he could have made more or not, for me to perceive it as a “bad deal” for Neuvirth, he would have to be unhappy with it—which he might be now. I don’t know.
My impression is that Neuvirth got what he wanted from that contract and then made the most of it.
"In the depths of winter, I learned there was in me an invincible summer" ~Albert Camus
Just to be clear about my comment the other day, my comment related to the Caps starting offer being Neuvirth’s contract as a starting point to negotiations, I wasn’t saying it would be the contract they sign with Varlamov.
I haven’t looked at the comparables and obviously, the catch is the KHL, but contracts like those signed by Quick and Crawford should be relevant, IMO, although that’s not based on looking at stats and details.
Has anyone pulled together an actual list of comparables?
I agree about Holtby’s small cap hit, but in this season with no bonus cushion, any extra cap hit could be an issue, even with the max cap increasing.
How relevant are comparable RFA deals when Varlamov is essentially an unrestricted free agent with respect to at least one other League/team?
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If we’re calling him half a UFA simply because the KHL exists and Russian players are lured more easily (perceived/real)…perhaps GMGM’s idea of drafting Russians isn’t such a good one.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
See my comment at the top. It’s part of why other GMs are too scared to pick these guys.
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Oh I agree with your implied point, just connecting the dots and writing it down.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s tough. We definitely can’t let him go for nothing, but an RFA offer sheet at just north of 3 million is simultaneously a salary-overpayment and a compensation-underpayment. I’d rather get a 1st, or similarly valuable asset, for Varlamov, but 3 million doesn’t bring that. I guess I’d match at 3, but it’s not a very fair deal for anyone. Until the guy can show he can play more than 30-35 games a year, I don’t think he should have the balls (or leverage) to ask for much more than 2.5. Of course, the KHL gives him the (perceived) leverage. None of it sits well with me. A guy that would flee to a lesser league for more money isn’t the kind of guy we need to sign, but losing a first round pick for nothing is even less palatable. Say it again with me, kids, “Don’t draft goalies in the first round.”
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
A guy that would flee to a lesser league for more money isn’t the kind of guy we need to sign
George? Is that you?
I agree with the sentiment but can hardly fault a guy with only a handful of years of maximum earning potential (and maybe even fewer in Varly’s case, given the durability issues) for wanting to take care of himself and his family when he has the opportunity to do so.
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I’m not faulting him either. That’s his prerogative. And at the same time it’s the team’s (and fans’) prerogative to question the competitive desire of a guy that would bail at such a young age rather than try to out-compete his NHL peers, win something, prove he is what he thinks he is, and then earn that money on the ice. I don’t care how good he’s looked in small samples, he hasn’t earned a 4 million dollar contract with his play on the ice. Like it or not, broken groins matter, too. The floodgate stuff matters. The wearing down with constant (read: NHL No. 1G) playing time matters. Everything he has to point at was done in small samples.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Agreed with everything after “earn that money on the ice.” If he goes to Russia, it’s not because he’s not competitive or is scared of NHLers or anything like that. Is that why Radulov left? The notion that he should take whatever the team offers and prove himself is noble, but not realistic.
My bottom line here is that the Caps owe it to themselves and their fans to see what this guy’s upside is, even if they have to pay a bit more for it than they’d like. Obviously there’s a point at which you say, “This guy’s fucking crazy” and walk away, but I doubt the numbers Varly’s side is presenting are in that neighborhood.
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I question Radulov’s competitive desire, yes. He’d never make as much money in the NHL as the KHL. So if money is the driver, then don’t bother coming here. If Radulov had any burning desire to be the best, or compete with the best, he’d have stayed in the NHL. He’d already have ended his ELC and made a big second contract. He wouldn’t make KHL money, but he’d make a lot. He wanted top dollar, he got it, good riddance. I want no part of Radulov or anyone of his ilk on my team.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on Jun 23, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A guy that would flee to a lesser league for more money isn’t the kind of guy we need to sign, but losing a first round pick for nothing is even less palatable. Say it again with me, kids, "Don’t draft goalies in the first round."
Because they might be so good that they will want a big contract? That’s crazy talk. Might support “don’t draft Russians in the first round,” but the problem here ain’t that he’s a goalie.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 23, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Actually it is. Goalies take longer time to figure out what you have, and in general are less predictable. If we had a top flight forward or D, it’s easier to say “sure, commit the money.” If we had a forward that had elite potential, I’d be happy with a 3 million dollar contract, even with the KHL and injury concerns. The goaltending market is much different; there are plenty of options available below 3 million dollars. Impact skaters are much harder to find on that tag. And again, the reliability in terms of year-to-year production is much different. So, no, Varlamov isn’t the best example of drafting a goalie in the first round going sideways. He’s just another example of how it can go sideways among a well-established list. I stand by the conclusion.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I think you make great points in your treatment, but the elephant in the room for me is having three goalies that all should be in the NHL. Sending Holtby to Hershey another year seems like a terrible idea. Is that what you would suggest, or trade Neuvy or Holtby?
Why do you think Holtby should be in the NHL and it’s terrible to play him in Hershey? I think he is still a bit rough around the edges. His soft goals percentage is over double Varly’s and Neuvy’s (see F&B fanpost). He didn’t fare so well in the playoffs in Hershey. I think Holtby with be just fine in Hershey for another season, with call-ups as needed. He’ll have Kolzig to work with him as well.
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Perhaps Holtby ought to demonstrate the ability to have success during the playoffs at the AHL level before the Caps hand him the keys.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 23, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering the sporadic inconsistency Holtby showed at times last year (and his less than inspiring AHL playoffs), I don’t think another year in the A would be a bad thing for him. Maybe get another call up or two. The point now is to find out who is number 1 out of the 3 we have, and which 2 out of the 3 we want to keep in the short to medium term.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Holtby should be in the AHL another year. He definitely needs more seasoning and polishing.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Agree. And therein lies my one quibble with the analysis.
the team has two other NHL-caliber (and likely NHL-ready) talents in net
Holtby appears to have the talent to play at an NHL level, but unless he’s added considerable polish since I last saw him (entirely possible, of course), I see him as too raw for the big leagues at the moment.
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I agree and had to think about how to word that sentence. I think calling Holtby an NHL-caliber talent is fair… but “likely NHL-ready” might be a bit strong, though I think he could be a reliable back-up (which wouldn’t be ideal for his development at all).
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I have been working under the assumption that if Varlamov did sign with a KHL team, the Caps would sign an vet back-up at a low cap hit for the back-up slot and still have Holtby as #3 on the depth chart.
I’d agree – a Hedberg-type or whomever.
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I wonder if Varly is hiding in the ceiling of GMGM's office
Trying to get some inside information
by Brainumbc on Jun 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
I think these numbers are a bit deceiving. Cory Schneider had better statistics than Varlamov, but is strategically cut off by your “more than 25 games” requirement. You’re comparing Varlamov to the three Vezina finalists and implying (or maybe I’m just inferring) that he belongs in that list. Was this a Vezina year for Varlamov? Could he legitimately play twice as many games and keep those numbers up? Come on now.. (quick answer: he couldn’t physically play that many games).
I’m also not buying the that you have to completely ignore Neuvirth’s contract. You may view this as a bit of a stretch, but it’s really no different from free agency pricing trends. The first big domino falls (Neuvirth) and the rest are priced accordingly. Are they signing in different years? Yes. Are they signing under different conditions? Of course, but I still think this article over-values him.
The only reason we’re justifying a larger paycheck for Varlamov sits with his outplaying a playoff choke-artist (or more realistically, being given opportunities Nuevirth hadn’t). If Theodore didn’t flop two Game 1’s in a row (or if Boudreau played him through it) then we’d be looking at Varlamov as really no different from Neuvirth (or perhaps even a step behind Neuvirth).
Fact is, they have the same number of playoff series wins and one is signed to a cheap contract for two more seasons. One has been given three years worth of opportunities while the other has been given one. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting Varlamov should get a contract smaller or identical to Neuvirth. Obviously, that’s not going to happen, but anything more than say, $2M is overpaying to me.
You want the big bucks? Prove you can stay healthy and outplay a rookie earning what is essentially chump change in the NHL.
Why buy Tylenol when the store brand does the same thing?
I don’t agree that Theo “flopped” Game 1 against Montreal, he was actually pretty good in it. I’ll allow that Varly had to come in and try to clean up a series in which the other guy lost Game 1 and put the team down 2-0 in Game 2. The Rangers series Varly won would never have gotten close to a 7th game without Theo blowing that Game 1. I think it’s unfair to characterize Varly’s playoff performance as “outplaying a playoff choke-artist” when the only series he’s lost that he’s actually gotten the start for every game is a 7 game series against the team that went on to win the Cup (Pitt).
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
The numbers are clearly cherry-picked to make my point, no doubt. Of course this wasn’t “a Vezina year” for Varly, but by all indications he is an above-average NHL goaltender already.
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I was mostly playing devil’s advocate with my above post, but to me, ‘above average’ among the world’s best also means you can stay healthy on a reasonable basis.
Well, that’s one area in which he’s decidedly below average. In actual skills and whatnot, he’s decidedly above average. At this point in his career, I think it’s worth seeing if he can bring his conditioning/durability up to average, because if he can…
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I agree with most of this, the exception being the idea that his injuries shouldn’t depreciate the value of his contract. I very much sell on this idea. They absolutely should in my mind. Part of being a valuable player is being able to actually play, which Varlamov hasn’t shown himself to be capable of for even half of a season. He hasn’t yet broken 50 GP in a single season (combining AHL and NHL playoffs and regular season). His inability to stay healthy for a majority of the season depreciates his value, and his contract should reflect that.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 11:51 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with most of this, the exception being the idea that his injuries shouldn’t depreciate the value of his contract.
I’m not sure I implied that the injuries shouldn’t depreciate the value of the contract. What I did say is that if they crop up, they’re more manageable because instead of having to go find a $2m backup, you’ve got Holtby.
If injuries didn’t depreciate the value of his contract, we wouldn’t be talking about numbers in the “south of $4m” range, would we?
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I interpreted:
Essentially, while “they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy” might carry weight as an argument, “they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy because he’s always hurt” doesn’t
As saying that injuries shouldn’t mean he should have a cheaper K. They’re definitely more manageable because the Caps have a cheap option. But just because it’s easier for the Caps to deal with doesn’t mean they should sign Varlamov to a bad contract
And I don’t know if we’d be talking about the K in the same manner if injuries didn’t happen. I don’t think his numbers would be as good and I still don’t think GMGM would want to give a young goalie with only a couple years a huge K.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
so you’re saying if Varly wasn’t injured, he’d have worse stats? How exactly does that work?
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He has small samples that make it easier to sustain better numbers. With a larger sample he’d regress to the mean more.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on Jun 23, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not quite sure I’m buying that completely, his sample size isn’t as small as Holtby and we’ve seen him over a few seasons. His stats were better this year than last, true, but he’s young and raw enough to believe it’s reasonable that he was improving, not just randomly fluctuating.
With a larger sample size, Varly would regress to his true mean level, but if that’s higher than average, then it’s reasonable to expect him to remain higher than average. Although I do realize that there probably isn’t enough data available on Varly yet to know his true level of talent. I just think it’s silly to expect him to have stats like Neuvy if he played as many games as Neuvy.
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Playing behind a better defensive team will help the numbers out as well.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s much more reasonable to expect his true talent to be below his numbers than above.
I also think we’ve seen some inconsistency issues that haven’t played out because he starts getting hurt.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
So with more consistency he’d be more inconsistent?
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With more prolonged periods of starting, I think we might see that. Of course, maybe the inconsistency stuff comes from trying to play through a wonky groin. We don’t really know. I do know that when he starts a lot, his play drops. The most glaring example is the ‘09 playoffs, but the optimists could convince themselves he was just young and not in NHL shape yet, and that he’s since gotten himself to that point. Not really sure how you convince yourself of that…
It’s a lot of semantics, anyway. The bottom line for me is that he hasn’t proven he can be even an average NHL starter. I don’t really care what the SV%, GAA, etc. say. If his GP isn’t above 40 (or even 30), then he’s not even in a discussion of an NHL starter.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Neuvy hadn’t shown any of that and had much worse numbers (and fewer playoff series wins) and got $1.15. What’s your walk-away number on Varly?
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My walk-away is probably around 3.25, just north of whatever the cut off is for a First round RFA compensation is. Can’t lose him for a second, can’t give him more than 3.5.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I think there are two different “walk-aways” here, since if he leaves for the K you get nothing and if he leaves for another NHL team, you at least get some compensation. So if he’s leaving for the K, your number is a bit higher, since it’s not mitigated at all by the compensation, right?
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Not really, because even if we get compensation a 2 isn’t worth it for me. I’d try to negotiate a trade, but if it’s an offer sheet I want the 1 back so it’s going to be a similar number, I think.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yeah, I think you’re right, because ultimately you’re asking “Can I deal with this cap hit for this guy or not?” The compensation is largely irrelevant.
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Pretty much. The more we discuss it the more I think I’m concerned with term over cap hit. Give him 2 years. Let him prove he’s healthy or not. Try to figure out a way to move him for max value before he’s up for a new deal.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on Jun 23, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Definitely. As long as we’re talking one or two years, I think I can choke down most anything that’s likely to be agreed to.
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$2.75 and I cringe at that. Neuvy had no real injury issues for the two years prior, in Hershey and DC. Also, you can’t pretend his two Calder Cup series didn’t exist. Don’t get me wrong, I am huge Varly fan and I ‘d hate to lose him, but I can’t see the really big numbers.
Truthfully, IMO, we wouldn’t be in this situation if Bruce had just picked a goalie and stayed with him … but that’s another story.
For me it’s like buying a big-screen TV. I go into the store thinking I want one thing, then I see that for just a bit more I can get a lot more TV. Then I’m there. And then for just a bit more…
If you’re willing to go to $2.75m, how do you justify not being willing to go to $3m? Does saving 1/3 of a Tyler Sloan justify walking from a potential franchise goalie?
This is why I suck at eBay, btw.
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Truthfully, IMO, we wouldn’t be in this situation if Bruce had just picked a goalie and stayed with him … but that’s another story.
That may be true, but why would you want to have “picked a goalie and stayed with him” when you’re not sure which of the two (three?) is better and you’re certainly not sure what you have in each?
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Sometimes the goalies pick themselves.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I do know that when he starts a lot, his play drops.
I’d like to see some numbers here. Back at the end of December, I ran some (albeit not entirely on this point) that showed both Neuvy and Varly did better when they’d started the previous game than when the team alternated starters.
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Yeah, but I meant when he starts like 6+ in a row.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
If we’re using the 2009 playoffs as the most glaring example of that case, it must be stated he’d played what, less than 10 NHL games before that playoff run? I have a feeling almost every goalie’s numbers would eventually take a hit in that case.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe, but I don’t see him doing much to have changed that.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Sad to say…has he been healthy enough to even start 6 in a row since then? Only started 5 in 2010 playoffs.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
… and now the Nylander is complete.
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by J.P. on Jun 23, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m just shaking my head sadly.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Varly not starting 6 games in a row isn’t only due to injury, it’s also due to the goalie rotation Boudreau used last eason. I suspect there were periods of the season where Varly was physically capable of starting more than 5 in a row. I don’t think we are going to find out how Valry would do in extended starts because Boudreau will go with another goalie rotation next year.
Neuvirth got more than 6 several times.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
By choice (i.e. Boudreau’s decision) or necessity (i.e. Varly’s injuries)?
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Maybe both, but I think a lot of people were upset with how hard he was ridden through October and November, but I’m not sure exactly when Varly was ready to play again. Of course, I wouldn’t have minded seeing more from Holtby at that time of the year, either. We had some margin for error to play with.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
What’s weird is that one of my criticisms of Boudreau has been that he rides a goalie into the ground, then keeps riding him, then throws him away for the next guy in line. Neuvy in the fall was a good example of that, but there have certainly been others.
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Yeah, he definitely takes “ride the hot hand” to the extreme, doesn’t he? It’s a difficult balance, and I appreciate that. When it comes to Huet in ‘08 or maybe even Varlamov in ’09 (though I still think he needed to sit one of the B2B games) there is some justification; the team needed to win and didn’t have much margin for error if they played a backup and lost. But Neuvirth in the beginning of ‘10-’11, coming off a Presidents’ Trophy? They had room to tinker, they could afford to give him some rest. They just didn’t. That’s where my complaint lies.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I’m not sure that BB had much of a choice in the fall but to ride Neuvy. Varly IIRC was injured starting around October 19th and I thought that was why Holtby was brought up for the Nov. 5th game—to give Neuvy a break. Or that Neuvy was feeling a bit ill. Given that Holtby hung around to the 20th playing five games in that time frame, I thought that Varly was still injured until late November.
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by capsyoungguns on Jun 23, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
now we are back to my previous comment. if Bruce would have picked a goalie and gone with him … we might not be at this impass.
He certainly picked a goalie and went with one when it mattered.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What I mean was, he had a clear opportunity to give the net to Varly before Game 3 or Game 4 in Tampa, but just chose to stick with Neuvirth for the whole playoffs.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Understandable … and that was the playoffs. BUT, again IMO, one of them should have been given the reins, long before playoff time, to prove being the #1.
2 different arguments, and I’m not sure whether due to injuries or the rotation he was running either guy would have had the shot.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Varly definitely suffered another injury in March and that’s why Holtby got called up again. The unanswerable question is exactly when did he get healthy because this time Holtby’s fabulous play kept him up.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Jun 23, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
OK…so what do we do now? Let’s say we sign Varly…are we going through the same song and dance as last year? Do we have a starter & backup or do we go Tandem?
Let them prove it?
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 23, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
You go tandem until someone earns the number 1 job. Do you think either guy actually earned it last year? Aside from Neuvy being durable in comparison to Varly, I don’t think either guy really did.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree. Tandem.
Both need to stay healthy and prove that they are the starter. But there is not need to run either of them into the ground.
No one expected to have a three-headed monster last season—but hey it was fun to see Holtby improve on every callup.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Jun 23, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because we didn’t know about it didn’t mean the decision wasn’t made earlier. I think the decision was made once Varly had the knee injury in February that required surgery. He was playing well once he came back and Neuvy wasn’t, but it was too late by then for him. He even said it himself in that recent interview, he lost the playoff position because of that injury. and missing time so close to the playoffs
Forgot that it was in February that his knee was injured.
Timing is everything with injuries.
"Hockey won’t hold still for a portrait. To gain a glimpse inside you join it in progress—just as the players do." Epilogue of 24/7
by capsyoungguns on Jun 23, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I interpreted:That interpretation certainly wasn’t my intent, and not sure how it was read that way – “a lot” is a raw number; “cheaper” is a number relative to another number. The “a lot” that they might pay for him should still be somewhat “cheaper” than the “a lot” they’d pay if he didn’t have injury concerns.
Essentially, while "they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy" might carry weight as an argument, "they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy because he’s always hurt" doesn’tAs saying that injuries shouldn’t mean he should have a cheaper K. They’re definitely more manageable because the Caps have a cheap option. But just because it’s easier for the Caps to deal with doesn’t mean they should sign Varlamov to a bad contract
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“Cheaper” and “a lot” are all relative. Either way, I don’t think they should pay a lot for him, and largely because he’s always hurt.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s the maximum dollar value you’d give him on a two-year deal?
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Hmmm, without a great deal of thought, probably $2.5 MM. But then again, if I knew anything about the game, I’d be in it.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
And 2.5 means we lose him for nothing, which is as unappealing (or more so) as a moderate overpayment.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yeah. Unfortunately in a week GMGM won’t be the only suitor looking for Varlamov. I have a feeling he is going to get overpaid, and it will be for the Caps.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we bump Bryz from 15th to 1st with a $7 mil hit ;)
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
All in due time.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks
very enlightening. Carey Price … 2.75 million.
There are the elite numbers, a few midrange and then the rest. To me this list is good GMGM ammo.
In comparing overpaying for an asset like Varly v. one like Laich…depending greatly on the amount of overpayment either way but there is some wiggle space where I would greatly prefer slightly overpaying Varly than I would slightly overpaying Laich.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like the $2.5 number and will be a bit salty if the Caps go above it for all of the reasons stated in this thread. But I think I’d be saltier if they let him go and could have kept him for $2.75 or $3. Dunno. It’s a really tough call here and I’d rather err on the side of overpaying than letting a potentially incredibly valuable asset go for nothing, even if he doesn’t “deserve” what the Caps would pay him.
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Unfortunately there’s far more to this than “What do the Caps want to pay Varlamov?”. My $2.5MM number is really just the tops of what I think he’s actually worth.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on Jun 23, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
2.5 for 2 years sounds reasonable given all the circumstances, IMO, but the question is what’s Varlamov’s view on those numbers. Won’t complain if they found a way to sign him for less than that cap hit.
I know I know comparables only mean so much and I’m not pulling stats, etc., but some goalie contracts…
Crawford, Chicago, 3 year contract, UFA after contract, 2.667M cap hit; first season of contract is ’11-12; his 3rd contract; his 2nd contract was a 2 year, 800,000 cap hit contract
Mason, Columbus, 2 year contract, second contract, 2.9M cap hit, first season of contract is ’11-12
Howard, Detroit, 2.25M cap hit, 2 year contract, first season of contract is ’11-12; his 3rd contract
Quick, Los Angeles, going into 2nd year of a 3 year contract (2nd contract); cap hit 1.8M
Bernier, Los Angeles, 1.25M cap hit, 2 year contract, first season of contract is ’11-12; his 2nd contract
Price, Montreal, 2.75M cap hit 2 year contract; going into 2nd year of his first post-ELC contract
Rinne, Nashville, 2nd year of 2 year contract with a 3.4M cap hit; his 3rd or 4th contract IIRC
Halak, St. Louis, 4 year contract going into 2nd year (his 3rd NHL contract I believe), 3.75M cap hit; obv. trade, etc. last summer, etc.
Reimer, Toronto (i.e., Burke), 3 year 1.8M cap hit, effective starting this season and first non-ELC contract
Pavelec (Atl/Wpg), 2 year, 1.15M cap hit; going into second year of his first non-ELC contract
Source: capgeek; typed myself and quickly so sorry in advance if any typos.
Does not include specifics of leverage (for example, arb. elig., other goalie in org., KHL, etc), timing of signing, other goalie in org., stats, etc.
by sk84fun_dc on Jun 23, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I definitely could’ve been more precise in my language here. I basically used “they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy because he’s always hurt” as shorthand for “they shouldn’t pay a lot for the guy because he’s always hurt and those injuries in and of themselves will screw them vis a vis the salary cap.”
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Someone mentioned in a post over the past couple of days, that a KHL contract for 4 million doesn’t necessarily mean that you’ll make that, and pointed out that Nabokov got shelved and was forced to take a pay cut halfway through the season.
Does anyone know if the same can be done in the KHL for injuries? If someone signs a KHL contract for 4 million bucks and get injured halfway through the season, does the KHL club still have to pay 100% of the remaining amount?
If not, then that definitely works to the Capitals’ advantage.
No. Not guaranteed contracts in the K. Check out the Malamud post on CI (that I think I linked to a couple of times) for details.
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I’ll dig it up.
I don’t know about Varly, but I’m more of a “one bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush” kinda’ guy.
Howie Mandel: So Varly. You’ve got one suitcase and there is one more suitcase out there. One is worth 4 million. The other is worth bupkis. We just got the call from the banker. He’s offering you 2 million for your suitcase. DEEEEEAAAAAAL….. or no deal? And put your hand away. I’m not shaking it.
but on the other hand KHL deals are not guaranteed. A team is always free to renegotiate a contract, even in mid-season, or to rip it up altogether. This is exactly what happened to Nabokov, who, according to some reports, was compelled to take a pay cut after not performing up to expectations.
A little vague. It doesn’t really say what kinda leverage either party has, let alone what happens during injury.
I’ll see if I can scrounge up some more details. My concern isn’t so much that Varly would pull a Nabby, but if he can’t get past half a season and the KHL only has to pay him for as much, then I’d say that “potential 4 million”, given Varly’s odds, would be more like 3 mil.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=546173
“The contract between the club and the goaltender (Evgeni) Nabokov was rescinded because of the family circumstances of the hockey player,” was the explanation on the team’s website.
This wording and the previous wording of how he was “compelled” to take a pay cut makes it seem like that a KHL club doesn’t have THAT much ability to wiggle their way out of a contract. Looks like they just found some loophole to get Nabby out. But I wonder what kind of leverage they had to force Nabby to “resign”. for “family” reasons.
Nabokov was playing very badly, they didn’t feel like they were getting what they were paying for, so mysterious family reasons suddenly come up and they agreed to part ways. I believe Nabokov stayed in Russia after his release and worked out there and started working with the national team and the Islanders allowed him to play in some tournament before the end of their season (this was before the World Champ). When he was released it was implied he had to come back to the US for his wife and kids (wife is an American) but I don’t think he actually came back (they might have).
SKA is the richest team in the KHL, they have ambitions but they haven’t won anything yet with all the money they spend. Hmm perhaps they are a bit like the Redksins and Danny Boy.
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
There is also the ongoing investigation into the KHL GM that gave a player a higher contract but then forced the player to give the GM back part of it, which he claimed he was redistributing to the other players so everyone made around the same amount. I believe Slava said this wasn’t uncommon. Apparently KHL contracts are barely worth the paper they are printed on.
by vtcapsfan99 on Jun 23, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Great article! Always love a good goalie discussion. First of all, Holtby should be out of the equation for this season. He has great talent that needs another year in Hershey with Kolzig and will no doubt see call ups, but he needs to play regularly to improve.
Did Neuvy jump the gun a little! … probably … but unless he reads the tea leaves for the future (maybe?) it was a good deal at the time. I’m thinking the best he may have done considering how the playoffs ended would have been @ 1.50 mil. Based on that, I think 2million for 2 years for Varly would be tops. You can’t ignore the injury history and It doesn’t matter what the KHL is offering really because it’s not a true contract. There are no money or job guarantees … GMGM and Varly both know this. I’d like to say It’s like dealing with 2 year olds … a bluff game where the kid wants to take his toys and go home thinking he’ll get his way. But the grown up has to set boundaries and let the kid go … How many 2 year olds do you know have left home?
I probably missed something, but I haven’t heard about anything regarding compensation if Varly signed an offer sheet with another NHL team. I think the compensation is as follows:
An offer with a $1,034,249 annual cap hit or less: No compensation
More than $1,034,249 — $1,567,043: Third-round pick
More than $1,567,043 — $3,134,088: Second-round pick
More than $3,134,088 — $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
More than $4,701,131 — $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick
More than $6,268,175 — $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third
More than $7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks
I assume this doesn’t carry over to teams outside the NHL, but wouldn’t we be most likely to get at least a 2nd, if not a 1st and 3rd if GMGM lets him go?
I’m getting the impression most posters (or, at least, the most frequent posters) would match at anything below the 1+3 level.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 23, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I might barely match the cutoff for the 2nd round level. Any higher than 3.2 mil is just too high in my opinion. And frankly I’d want it to be cheaper than that.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It comes back to what J.P. wrote above. If Varlamov is somehow able to stay healthy, the contract looks nice, but if he’s hurt, you’re saving money by LTIR’ing him and bringing up Holtby or using another cheap backup.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 23, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think the Caps match in a second up to that $3.1 number. Above that, it’s decision time.
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Hopefully Edmonton offers him $3.1. That would be a nice 1st rounder.
by Dirk Dangler on Jun 23, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it odd there is no “just a 1st” level.
Everything ends badly...otherwise it wouldn't end.
by Davethecapsfan on Jun 23, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Why the Caps Can't Let Semyon Varlamov Go
Because there’s always the risk that Ted Leonsis goes all Ed Snider. Gotta have that goalie option in the fold.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Jun 23, 2011 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
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