A Prayer For Zeus
The logic of the offseason can be a bit roundabout.
This past season, the Caps' biggest problem was offense. They scored 2.67 goals per game, which put them at a poor #19 in the league, a far cry from their #1 ranking the previous year. (They were a much better 2.33 in goals against per game, which put them at #4 in the league.) Now, in the offseason, it appears to many of us that the best way for the Caps to improve their offense is to sign a center who will put defense first and who can take the load off of Nick Backstrom, allowing Backstrom to once again focus on putting the puck in the net. But that's the shape of things, and finding that 3rd line center presents itself as the Caps' main priority.
There's been talk of acquiring Marty Reasoner in these parts, of signing Marcel Goc, and of some other names (even including Brooks Laich), but a name I haven't seen suggested much is Michael Handzus. I think Handzus might be the best option of the bunch.
Here's his SBNation scouting report:Assets
Is a load to line up against, at 6-4, 218 pounds. Plays solid defense and is also a capable playmaker. Can chip in with timely goals.
Flaws
Lacks speed. Isn't very aggressive for a player with such an imposing frame. Has not reached his full potential on offense.
Career Potential
Veteran two-way center.
Which really doesn't do the man justice. Let's start with the fundamentals. Handzus led all Kings forwards in ice time during the playoffs, with 20:21 per game, including 3:35 per game on the power play (3rd among Kings forwards) and 3:33 per game on the penalty kill, tops among all Kings players. That's right, all Kings players, including defensemen. The man was their rock -- when the Kings' best forwards went down with injuries, the Kings turned to Handzus.
Handzus is a good defensive player. He finished 2nd in the Selke voting after the 1999-2000 season, and was on the ice for about 9 fewer goals than one would have expected from an average player who played his minutes. His faceoff percentage was a respectable 51.7, which ought to be good enough to permit the Caps to give Handzus their toughest zone starts and let the more skilled players shine in the offensive zone. That's a role Handzus should be comfortable with -- his 43.5 OZone% at 5-on-5 was the toughest among Kings regulars.
Many teams may shy away from Handzus because he's going to turn 35 just before the start of next year's playoffs. That's justified to some degree. Handzus's scoring has gone down from 42 points in both 08-09 and 09-10 to just 30 last year. He certainly shouldn't be anything near the $4 Million he made last year. On the other hand, Handzus has demonstrated great durability, playing 81 or 82 games each of the past four years. Given the defensive role he'd likely be asked to play with the Caps, there's no reason to believe Handzus can't manage at least one more year of solid play.
Handzus seems to be a true free agent -- he probably won't be re-signed by LA. The Kings have Anze Kopitar, Brayden Schenn, Andrei Loktionov, and Jarrett Stoll ready to play top-2 line minutes, and Stoll, Brad Richardson, and Trevor Lewis ready to play on the bottom-2 lines. There's no space on the roster for Handzus. Here's what Quisp over at Jewels for the Crown says about the prospects of losing Handzus this year:
- People seem to think he's going to re-sign at a steep discount. If he does, that puts Stoll pretty solidly in the C2 position, with Handzus in C3, which likely means no Schenn or Loktionov.
- UNLESS the plan would be to give Zeus 4th line minutes. I guess I can kinda see that. But would a line centered by Handzus ever really be a 4th line? Wouldn't Zeus just creep back in to those critical defensive situations? He could mentor Lewis (or Schenn) in the finer points of being a wily shut-down guy. That would leave Schenn, Lewis and Richardson duking it out for the remaining center spot, which would be either C3 or C4.
- Handzus, you might recall, was my MVP through most of last season, but I find it hard to get excited about the prospect of re-signing him. Wouldn't he want more than a one year deal? And is there any advantage to that, for the Kings? I freely admit I get restless in the off-season and get too bored too quickly with conservative but (probably) prudent solutions. But signing Handzus for another year or two is very conservative, even by the usual Lombardi/Murray yardsticks.
- Lombardi could have re-signed Sean O'Donnell, but chose to upgrade to Willie Mitchell. I have to think he'll give a lot of thought to making room for the younger centers, especially this next guy, who isn't even all that young anymore.
Some telling stuff there. MVP through most of the season? Zeus would just creep back into the critical defensive situations? Sounds like just the kind of guy the Caps are looking for. I can understand why the Kings would want to give the young players the chance to play, but it means that Handzus isn't exactly a cast-off. He's a good, solid player who would fit well on most teams. And I think the Caps are a particularly good fit.
Handzus seems to me to be this year's Mike Knuble -- the perfect fit for a major hole in the Caps' roster. I'd give him up to $3 Million, and if that means he replaces Brooks Laich, then I'm willing to live with that. Of course, if the Caps can manage to sign both players, Laich-Handzus-Sjogren could be one hell of a stopper line. I'd love to see that, and I'd love to see Handzus in a Caps' uniform.
If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.
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Bonus Capgeek:
FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.000m)
Marco Sturm ($2.500m) / Marcus Johansson ($0.900m) / Alexander Semin ($6.700m)
Brooks Laich ($4.000m) / Michal Handzus ($3.250m) / Mattias Sjogren ($0.900m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m) / Boyd Gordon ($0.800m) / Matt Bradley ($0.850m)
/ Jay Beagle ($0.512m) / Eric Fehr ($2.200m)
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.750m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
Jeff Schultz ($2.750m) / Mike Green ($5.250m)
John Erskine ($1.500m) / Dennis Wideman ($3.937m)
/ Tyler Sloan ($0.700m)
GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($1.150m) / Semyon Varlamov ($1.500m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,059,295; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,940,705
Atta dinnin stick a who!
Totally random thought (well, maybe not that random). If the salary cap is going up by around 7%, don’t you have to figure that you need to bump up whatever you thought a player might sign for? A quarter million here, half a million there, and you end up eating all of that extra money.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
Is this calculation with the expectation that Poti is LTIR? (Or off the cap through other means). I also don’t think if Varly is around it will be at a $1.5 mil hit.
To the larger point – I think you make a great case for him, and I would love to see it. He screams perfect 3C, and could fill the role that many of us (myself included) hoped that Steckel would grow into but, sadly, never did.
by BradleyFightingVehicle on Jun 21, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Puck Prospectus wrote on ESPN ($) that Handzus would be a good fit too.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) Insider. I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yep, I had that in Clips this morning. I don’t think it’s appropriate to give away the whole store, especially b/c it’s behind a pay wall, but part of the thinking is as follows:
Handzus (GVT of 9.2 in 2009-10, and 5.2 in 2010-11) is not the offensive player he once was, but he is very responsible in the faceoff circle, can play in all situations and adds size and strength to a soft group up front. There is a reason coaches like Ken Hitchcock and Terry Murray have leaned on Handzus to play tough minutes. The Capitals are simply too easy to play against — the antithesis of what Handzus is. He can also chip in some offensively, making him a valuable commodity, especially for a squad in need of the all of the qualities he brings to the table.
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by J.P. on Jun 21, 2011 7:39 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was wondering why The Darkness hadn’t released any LPs lately.
(I could be convinced to have "zus rocking the red next year)
"And therefore I looked down into the great pity of a person’s life on this earth. I don’t mean that we all end up dead, that’s not the great pity. I mean that he couldn’t tell me what he was dreaming, and I couldn’t tell him what was real."
- Denis Johnson ("Jesus' Son")
by Rather Bengt on Jun 21, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn, he could be a Flyer with that mop.
That said, from what I hear he would be perfect for the Caps. Help take some of the D zone faceoffs and tough assignments, helping open up our offensive players to do their thing.
Proud member of the Popsicle Division of the Cupcake Conference.
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Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 21, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d like to see a bit more detail in your analysis, Gouldie, but on the whole, it’s a decent effort. :)
I have liked Zus for a long time – when his head is in the game, he’s clever, skilled and more than a little edgy.
But isnt this a reversion to Kozlov, Zubrus, et al? Perhaps this is just what we need, I’m not sure – obviously, players like Toews don’t grow on trees. I want to see some desire, I guess is the word I’m looking for.
What else would you like to see?
His primary contribution is defensive, and that aspect of the game is notoriously difficult to define. As far as desire, etc. — doesn’t the TOI story tell you what you need to know?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 21, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I was being facetious, as evidenced by the smiley in the first line of my response.
Loved the analysis – but I am concerned about whether he can dedicate himself anew to Bruce’s system.
by S h a g g y on Jun 21, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
no worries, thanks for the kind words
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 21, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
No, he’s RFA.
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To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 21, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
when I looked over the list of FA centers, Handzus was at the top of my list but I was skeptical that the caps could land him (due to expected bidding war driving up the price and the length of the deal). Basically, my 3C wish list goes Handzus/(drury no longer an option)/Reasoner/Laich. Bringing him on board would be badass, but I do have concerns about signing him to more than a 1- or 2-year contract at his age….and I am sure other teams will be more than willing to offer him multiple years.
somewhere, I had found a link for a “free agent finder” that allowed you to set your primary sort filter…which in my case I was using “faceoffs won” to find guys who could bring a balance of faceoff skill, defensive acumen, and some nice scoring touch (as well as a shit-ton of games played) for the 3C spot . Does that ring a bell to anyone? I thought it was on CapGeek, but apparently not.
I am torn on Zus
People do seem to think Lombardi will try to sign him for somewhere under $2MM. There are two issues: (1) more than that, and it won’t work with the Kings’ cap structure, (2) Handzus’s purpose is to play big defensive minutes, which means — in Terry Murray-land — center of the third line with Wayne Simmonds on his right side (as he has been for the last three seasons). With Andrei Loktionov and/or Brayden Schenn likely to step in, and Jarret Stoll still on the books for one more year, I really don’t see where Handzus goes.
It’s possible Lombardi will opt to have Schenn and Loktionov play the year in Manchester. But that would be so boring.
On the other hand (the hand which regrets even thinking about letting Handzus go)…
It’s really not possible to overstate Handzus’s importance to the Kings’ success the last two seasons. He has always been the hub of Terry Murray’s defensive system. (And it’s that system that got us to the playoffs both years.) There were times season before last when I called Handzus’s line the first line. Kopitar has the habit of disappearing for long stretches of a season, and Handzus’s line scored a lot of timely goals. Not to mention that he had 20 goals last year. He is also excellent on the power-play, in the Holmstrom big-ass-in-goalie’s-face role. And he’s a teacher (will certainly be a coach after retirement).
The only downside is his age. But I expect he will play 2 or 3 more years.
I think there’s a very real chance the whole Murray system will collapse if Handzus is absent from it. I hope I’m wrong.
If there was a list of undervalued players in the NHL, unsung heros, whatever — I would put him at the top of the list. And so would Terry Murray, I’m quite sure.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jun 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 7 recs
Thanks for the insight. And perhaps the solution would be for the Caps to acquire Stoll, letting Murray have Handzus. I would love seeing Stoll in a Caps uniform.
Hey, it’s June, I can dream, can’t I?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 21, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd line centers shouldn't cost 3.25 Mil
Age GP G A P +/- FO % 10/11 Cap Hit
Halpern, Jeff : F 35 72 11 15 26 6 56.9 600K
Handzus, M. : F 34 82 12 18 30 -5 51.7 4 Mil
Zus did take twice as many Faceoffs as Halpern, (1312 to 594), but I feel like we can get similar value for much cheaper, considering for the minutes and the role that a 3rd line center needs to play. This also isnt an endorsement to pick up Halpern, just wanted to point out the disparity in salaries, but seemingly similar game stats.
I think you’re about to be shocked by the contract-madness that’s about to come this offseason. I think the dollars are going to be flying…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Jun 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. This is an extremely mediocre Free Agent pool – not to say that there are just a bunch of mediocre players, simply that there is basically 2-3 really good players, and then a handful of good ones. The good ones are going to be paid like really good ones, so there’s probably going to be more over-spending in a period that is already notorious for it.
by Charlie Foxtrot on Jun 21, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

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