Monday Caps Clips
by J.P. on May 16, 2011 6:39 AM EDT
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Your savory breakfast links:
- Just who are the Caps anyway? [Peerless]
- Looking back at John Carlson's season. [CI (Carrera), and, as an FYI, our Carlson Rink Wrap drops at 11 this morning]
- So part of the justification for a theoretical Mike Green trade is that the Caps' defense is too slow? That makes sense. [Edmonton Journal]
- More thought-out analysis of a possible Green trade. [DCEx (McNally)]
- Trying to read George McPhee's tea leaves regarding his bench boss. [News from the Nosebleeds]
- The World Championships end with Alex Ovechkin failing to score a goal or register an assist, which is somewhat fitting, since most observers probably viewed his trip to Bratislava as pointless to begin with. [RMNB, RtR, SB Nation DC]
- Thoughts on Derek Boogaard 's passing and some of the repercussions. [Ross Hollebon]
- Prospect playoff updates (from Em):
- Brett Flemming and the St. Michael's Majors advance to the Memorial Cup tournament but they will have to do so without the OHL title in hand. They fell 3-2 in overtime to the Owen Sound Attack. Brett's final playoffs stats: 20 games, one goal, 12 assists, plus-7 rating.
- It took two overtime periods and just over four hours for Stan Galiev and the Saint John Sea Dogs to claim the QMJHL championship and hoist the President's Cup. Stan had a beauty first goal of the game plus an assist on the GTG with only :23 left in the third period. With 10 goals and 17 assists in 19 games for a total of 27 points, he is tied with Cody Eakin for total post-season points, and had a plus-8 rating to Cody's plus-9.
- And yes, this means the Capitals have three prospects in this year's Memorial Cup tournament, two of them with titles. Congratulations and good luck to all!
- Finally, happy 27th birthday to Tomas Fleischmann, whom we're all looking forward to seeing back on the ice as soon as possible.
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It occurred to me that McPhee had to know that he would be asked about BB’s job security on break down day. By describing it as he did, maybe he put the information into the players radar for the exit interview process. I’m not sure who would be involved in those interviews, but I wonder if the players might react differently than they might have otherwise.
Quand on change d'attitude ça change tout
On Ovi for the World Championships: it was a no win situation for him no matter what happened. If the Russians had won & he had done well, there’d be the criticism of “he can only get it up for Russia”. If they lost and he didn’t do well, well we just saw what happened.
There was barely any time off for him between Round 2 before he participated in the World Championships, which probably didn’t help. The jet lag and barely any practice with his Russian linemates certainly didn’t help either.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
I wrote the same exact thing they day he left. There was no possibility of him emerging from the situation looking good.
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Representing Caps fandom in the Gateway to the West.
It’s kind of fun watching the world championships this year, but I don’t think anyone can really take them too seriously. I mean, it seems like half the players are coming in straight off of playoff losses with no time to really learn how to mesh with their teammates.
By having the WCs running alongside the playoffs, the IIHF doesn’t seem as inclined to help their countrymen. Rather it’s “us or them” and I think there are NHL players would probably choose the WCs over the NHL playoffs, but there are some, like Ovi, who have made it obvious that NHL playoffs are more of a priority. And Russia especially screwed the pooch this time by not calling up better goalies. I’m not even saying they had to call up Varly, but Bryzgalov was available as well. They could have called up Bobrovsky too, and he might have benefitted from playing with fellow Russians.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Bryzgalov kind of crapped the bed in the playoffs, though. That might have been a good call. They had Nabokov, but he got hurt; I can’t remember if he was ok or terrible before that.
Don’t try to figure Sasha out. Just ride the wave.
IIRC, he wasn’t that great to begin with and the guy they replaced him with got a concussion (and came back game after that). Russia really needed help with goaltending. Bryzgalov didn’t do a great job in the playoffs, but I don’t think the Coyotes had much of a chance against Detroit anyway. I think players who weren’t doing well before could easily make the difference in a different situation.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
From McNallly, who, btw, I think is one of the stronger Caps beat writers:
But if Green can play near that 2.11 level in his own end – the best mark of his career – and come close to his offensive ceiling (70+ points) you again have one of the best d-men in the league.
If my aunt had wheels she would be a wagon. The chances of Green returning back to the 70-point level are pretty low, IMO. A lot had to go right for the org as a whole for him to hit that mark and I just don’t see it happening again.
Way more realistic to expect Green to keep his GA/60 at that level, but chip in ~40 points on offense. Good numbers, but not $5-6mil good.
But we have three years of evidence that Green is better than that and one that says he isn’t. Which is the safe bet?
Take the under.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
So, splitting the difference between 40 and 70 and setting the O/U at 55, you take the under going forward?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Players similar to Mike Green see their performance dip (on average) from ages 24 thru 27, before stabilizing and then rising back up.
Add in his concussion(s) and yes, I would take the under.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
The biggest factor limiting his production (as a rate – obviously his durability is going to be the biggest detriment to his totals) is the lack of production from his forwards. Plenty of analysis out there shows that even the best offensive defensemen can only drive scoring so much, and they’re all hugely dependent on the forwards for numbers.
It would seem to be somewhat chicken-or-the-egg – if 8 and 19 play better, 52’s going to rack up more points; if 52 plays better, 8 and 19 are going to rack up more points – but the reality isn’t nearly as evenly balanced. Let me see if I can dig up some of those articles…
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I don’t disagree that 52’s production is tied to 8/19 both at EV and on the PP, but I am taking that into account. I just don’t see Green getting back to double digit goals on the PP anytime soon, which carries a lot of the freight, or being on a PP that scores 25%+ of the time again.
I am in the camp that Ovi’s best is most likely behind him, which in turn affects Backstrom as well.
Tyler saw this a few years ago:
Backstrom’s has undoubtedly been excellent over the past two seasons but there’s an argument that he might be player with whom there is a gap between value by traditional and actual value because of the amount of time that he spent playing with Ovechkin
Same for Green?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Sure. No question. The rising tide of the 2008-10 Caps raised all ships.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
Odds Caps shoot this poorly on the PP again? Green touches the puck a lot on the PP, and he’s going to see a lot of offensive ice. Shooting percentages move towards the mean, his points will rise. His Corsi Rel is very good, and it was in double digits before he got hurt earlier in the year. You’re way underselling the player, here.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on May 16, 2011 9:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Odds Caps shoot this poorly on the PP again?
Depends on if BB is still the coach.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on May 16, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, it probably doesn’t.
The overall PP effectiveness might depend on who the coach is, but the actual shooting percentage will rebound whether it’s Bruce calling the shots or you or me.
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You sure you like that position? Because judging by PP Shots/60 the Caps were one of the top PP units in the league. If you think the Sh% is just going to regress to the mean, then you’d think we have a top 5 PP unit and that it was just luck that we were so ineffective this year.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I’d be willing to bet that they could trot out the same guys and the same schemes on the power play and be more effective next season based solely on some regression of Sh%, yes.
Do I think it’s enough to warrant trotting out the same guys and the same schemes? No.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I think the % could increase by regression. I don’t think it’s enough to get us back to that elite PP echelon I think we should be in. I personally think there is no excuse for this group to be under 20% and I think it’s entirely reasonable to expect them to get up to 23% or higher. Neil said he doubts Green plays on a 25% PP again, but I think he very well should be on a 25% PP.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I think the % could increase by regression. I don’t think it’s enough to get us back to that elite PP echelon I think we should be in.
I agree completely – they don’t get there with the current PP scheme(s).
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
then you’d think we have a top 5 PP unit and that it was just luck that we were so ineffective this year.
Per Likens:
The variation in powerplay shooting percentage at the team level, over the course of a single regular season, is approximately 90% luck, 10% skill.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Further to that, the AVg Sh% 5v4 was 10.5%. Caps were 8.7% with the third most SF/60.
Def some upside there, IMO.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Yeah, there’s upside, no doubt. But we are still a bad PP unit. I think it was BtN that had us pegged at 3rd best PP unit because of shots. That’s garbage. I get that the game of hockey is all spreadsheets and luck. I just think that sometimes a little bit of valuable knowledge might fall through the cracks and teach us something.
From a qualitative stand point, our PP is not very good. It’s stagnant and predictable, and teams have figured out how to take away the two threats we almost exclusively rely on (AO one time from the point or Green backdoor). We may have been getting shots, but that doesn’t change my opinion about the quality of our PP.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on May 16, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
our PP is not very good
Don’t need a spreadsheet to agree with this.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
That’s got to be the number one thing the Front Office and Coaching Staff look at this off-season, no? Last year I think they took a solid look at the PK and revised it; this year it should be the PP. I hope they don’t all think it was just luck. It’s been too long that our PP wasn’t effective, and it undoubtedly cost us games, including playoff games.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
That’s got to be the number one thing the Front Office and Coaching Staff look at this off-season, no?
Let’s hope so. I haven’t looked yet (cause I am afraid) but I have been meaning to see how many times the opposing team had more scoring chances on the WSH PP than Caps did.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I bet I know who is on the point for most of those scoring chances against…
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Again, no spreadsheet needed…
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
depends on what you mean by “rebound.” JP didn’t say it’d be elite again. Just better than it was last year.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to reply, but F&B said it so much more eloquently. What the lawyer said.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on May 16, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
You mean in his agreement with me? Yes, I agree with his agreement with me that you were incorrect that they’ll likely not have a better Sh% next seasonif Boudreau is back.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
That’s not what I said. Sh% really doesn’t have anywhere to go but up, so sure, even if BB comes back next year the odds are that the PP Sh% will be better. I just don’t think it will be significantly better unless changes are made to the PP (which I don’t see happening if BB sticks around). Which is essentially the conclusion you both ended up with.
I guess I should have been more clear when I said “It depends”.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on May 16, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. Sorry if I misunderstood.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I thought Tyler was dead ass wrong when he wrote that piece about Nick originally. I still do.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
At least right now I think Backstrom drives the play much, much more (relative to AO) than at that time.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
And if he keeps improving his D play that should increase. Sure, Nick is helped by AO, and AO by Nick, but I vehemently disagree with the argument that the Caps “are paying AO twice” by signing Nick to that long term deal. Sad as it is to say, if AO doesn’t learn to adapt his game and cycle, we may soon be talking about AO holding Nick’s numbers down. If he was on a line that loved to cycle I think he’d be an even more dangerous player.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I’m wondering that now, actually. It was painfully obvious that they were playing at different paces for the playoffs.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Green went from being a point-a-game player in the two seasons preceding this one to being a half-a-point-a-game player this past season. And it wasn’t just due to the poor power play. His drop-off was distributed pretty evenly between his even strength play (from .53 PPG in 09-10 to .27 PPG) and the power play (from .47 PPG in 09-10 to .20 PPG). But his games played has gone down from 82 in 2007-2008 to 68 the following year, to 75, to 49 last season. His durability issues seem to be eating into his general productivity on offense, not confining it to the power play (a different issue for the Caps) or even strength play.
If you've read this far...seek help.
This season, Matt Carle was 28th among D in points with 40. Given that we know Carlzner will be aggressively matched with toughs, that Green is going to play a lot at ES and on the PP, I find it hard to believe that Green can’t top 40 points consistently easily. Kris Letang was 9th with 50 points, I think that’s more along the lines of what Green can do, and that’s low-end in my mind, especially with a competent PP.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I agreed about ~40 points on offense up top, but that is worth about $4mil IMO, not $5.5-6.
I see 50 points a longshot and not something you base a multi-year contract on.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
What about once they FINALLY move him to wing becuz he’s teh suck at defenze?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
But then again, why would we base contracts on point counting?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on May 16, 2011 9:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
eRec’d.
Further, the fewer the points, the cheaper he’ll be, regardless of how “good” a defenseman he actually is at the time.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
I really don’t think you’re giving him enough credit, but maybe that’s just me. If it’s 40 points, I think he’s probably not getting the easiest minutes. If he’s getting the easiest minutes, I think 50+ is the most likely scenario (30 ESP, top-5, 20 PPP, top-20), assuming he logs a lot of minutes with Ovechkin. Hell, his worst season in four years by raw counting stats and in which the Caps forgot how to score at every not-disadvantaged manpower saw him on pace for 40 points.
In 07-08, got a point on 42% of 5on5 GF.
In 08-09, 44%
09-10, 40%
10-11, 36%
I’m pretty sure we can agree that point/gm requires serious luck and privileged ice time, 70 points is probably the max we’ll see from here on out barring a massive change in scoring/penalty calling the league, but given that this season was easily the most disadvantged offensive season for the team since BB took over, and he was still on pace for 40 points…
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
5on4 percent contribution:
07-08, 49%
08-09, 59%
09-10, 58%
10-11, 47%
Looking more and more to me like 07-08 levels of points, but better defense and less privileged situations, is a good equilibrium. 18-38-56 (maybe a bit high on the goals there), 33 at ES, 23 on the PP.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d be curious to see what the team PP% was for blueliners with 60+ points, since about half their goals come on the PP.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I’m going 57 and up
This year:
Visnovsky: 23.5%
Lidstrom: 22.3%
Yandle: 15.9%
Last year:
Green: 25.2%
Keith: 17.7%
Doughty: 20.8%
Boyle: 21.0%
08-09:
Green: 25.2%
Markov: 19.2%
Lidstrom: 25.5%
Niedermayer: 23.6%
Rafalski: 25.5%
Boyle: 24.2%
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. I thought we’d see a majority of them high PP%.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Almost all are top-6 or so, only exceptions are Yandle and Keith.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Reality check: 20 defensemen get $5,000,000 or more and played more than 10 games in the NHL last year.
Of those 20, two exceeded 50 points. Only 7 were better than one point every two games.
If Mike Green keeps this year’s defensive results and scores between 40 and 50 points, he’s definitely in line with the folks on that list. Paul Martin is a nice comparable in my mind. His career high is 37 points. He got 5.5 Million. Are you telling me that a Mike Green with defensive numbers like he had this year and 40-50 points isn’t worth 5.5-6 Million in an offseason when the salary cap goes up?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
“Worth” and “market value” may be two different things here.
In my mind, your $5.5-$6m defensemen have to be durable, top-pairing guys you play in all situations. Of course, the Caps can fudge that distinction a bit, since their top pairing guys (assuming we’re talking 27-74) aren’t likely to be big-ticket guys for a while. Still, $6m is an awful lot to pay a guy whose career is on the trajectory that Green’s is, no?
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
06-07: 12 points in 70 games
07-08: 56 points in 82 games
08-09: 73 points in 68 games
09-10: 76 points in 75 games
10-11: 24 points in 49 games, played hurt lots, and his defense got better
What exactly his his trajectory? I see a guy whose lucky 08-09 and 09-10 seasons masked about a 60 point potential. I think at a healthy 23 minutes a night for 82 games, he’s still a 60 point guy. And yeah, if he keeps up his good defense from this year, that’s worth 6 million.
Healthy — that’s the rub, ain’t it. Green’s most important stat next year is games played…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I meant his health trajectory.
You’re hard-pressed to find a bigger Green supporter than me, fwiw, but dude’s gotta get better at protecting himself or he’ll be cooked before long.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
If Carlson and Wideman can stay healthy, that’ll help a lot.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
How so? Carlson and Wideman don’t make Green carry the puck into The Danger Zone without keeping his head up. Carlson and Wideman don’t make Green go down to block an otherwise unscreened shot from the top of the circle.
Japers' Rink: Hockey blogging from the most powerful city in the world
they’ll take some minutes from him. I think Green puts himself in more danger when he’s tired
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Carlson and Wideman don’t make Green go down to block an otherwise unscreened shot from the top of the circle.
with his face…
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
This whole thread makes me sad.
By age 24, the guy is labeled "bad in his own end," "soft," "lacks commitment," "mentally fragile," etc. So in his age 25 season, he comes back and plays very good D. He sacrifices his body – we were all excited when we heard Dale Hunter say Dennis Wideman is willing to take a shot to the face for his team, but Green did it twice this season! He struggles to get back despite the fact that it’s so hard to get your conditioning back after concussions because you have to take it so easy during the rehab. And then he actually plays well in the playoffs. Not great, but good.
Bad in his own end? Not anymore. Soft and lacking in commitment? What the hell more does the guy have to prove after he jumped in front of a second puck after what the first one did to him? Mentally fragile? Maybe his brain is fragile now, but only because he took two pucks and a heavy elbow to the head. (And by the way, is there any evidence that blocking shots with one’s head is a “skill?” Why is it that when bad things happen to Mike Green it’s his damned fault, but when others are hurt it’s bad luck? Where are the calls for Dennis Wideman to not try to skate through people with his thigh?)
I’m not disputing what anyone here is saying today. But it kills me that Green just can’t win no matter what he does. Everything we’ve been wanting him to do for the last two years, he did early this season in terms of shoring up his defensive play. How can you ask more from a 25-year old who started his career so well? Maybe the problem ain’t Mike Green. Maybe it’s our expectations.
He needs more seasoning for sure. He needs to learn his limits and to play within them. Unless the league changes dramatically, I also don’t see him getting back up above 70 points again without a lot of luck. But I think 60 is possible if he paces himself and doesn’t go back to feeling like he has to do everything himself.
His worst play in the playoffs came when he was trying to accomplish too much. That’s also, to my eyes, when he gets himself the most exposed to injury. Which is why I say a full year of Carlson and Wideman will help, so that he doesn’t feel the need to put himself in those positions.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 18 recs
preach it, brother.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
And if Green had performed up to expectations in any playoff series since Philly in 2008-2009, he’d have a much better chance at winning over the fans. Regular season Green is awesome. Playoff Green, not so much. Much like the rest of the team.
He was pretty good this year until he got hurt again. If you expected more out of him this postseason, after what he went through during the regular season, then your expectations were out of line.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
After his play in the Rangers’ series, I think it was perfectly rational to expect more out of him that what he offered against Tampa. Sadly, he suffered another injury and was unable to contribute.
until he got hurt again.
This is the part that’s become a chronic problem for him year in and year out. He breaks down by April. Every year.
You raise some valid points, especially: Maybe the problem ain’t Mike Green. Maybe it’s our expectations.
There is no doubt that Green has changed his game towards more defensive responsibility, however, I am purely looking forward.
I am basing my opinion on what similar players at similar ages have done going forward, which I have found to be an extremely reliable indicator of future performance. And by doing so, I just don’t see the value in $5-6mil for one year, let alone a multi-year deal.
Add in the concussion(s) and I think the risk is too big to take.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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By this logic, there should be virtually no 5-6mil contracts. How many people manage to meet those expectations, though? What percentage of 5-6mil contracts are “earned” by their performance during the contract? Most players see their best offensive numbers by the time they get their first big payday. I think you’re using an unfair standard.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
How many people manage to meet those expectations, though? What percentage of 5-6mil contracts are "earned" by their performance during the contract?
Are you suggesting teams only pay players based on past performance and not expected performance?
The system is not optimal, I agree, but I think there is an opportunity to reduce your risk more than teams do currently, and I can say for certain at least one NHL team agrees with me, aside from those that employ staff for “hockey analytics,” such as BUF and TBL.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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The system is not optimal, I agree, but I think there is an opportunity to reduce your risk more than teams do currently, and I can say for certain at least one NHL team agrees with me,
Yes, but unfortunately here we’re talking about the team that extended Tom Poti 2 years before the season started.
I’m saying you’re judging 5-6 mil players based on the peak offensive performances of the best players, but those peak offensive performances don’t come while folks are making 5-6 mil. They come earlier.
In other words, if there are 20 5-6+mil defensemen in any given year, and Mike Green shouldn’t be one of them, then who should?
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m saying you’re judging 5-6 mil players based on the peak offensive performances of the best players, but those peak offensive performances don’t come while folks are making 5-6 mil. They come earlier.
So if a player has a career year, the team should reward him and completely disregard what he may do in the future?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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OK, give me even one example of something I wrote that might lead to that response.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I am basing my opinion on what similar players at similar ages have done going forward, which I have found to be an extremely reliable indicator of future performance.
How reliable?
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by Knee high to a duck on May 16, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Reality check: 20 defensemen get $5,000,000 or more and played more than 10 games in the NHL last year
Are we calling this the Redden exception?
And Markov.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
go back and read what I originally wrote. I was taking the conservative position by dropping him. it was unfair to include him precisely because he didn’t play.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Earn? Or get paid?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on May 16, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think that citing a point-level a player has already attained as his ceiling is anywhere near as absurd as stating your aunt has wheels. Then again, I haven’t seen your aunt.
It would be a disservice to call it a fluke, but it’s a scenario that is not as likely to repeat itself. That’s not saying that it couldn’t happen again, but it’s not a stretch to say that it’s likely he won’t hit 70+ points again.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Only 15 blueliners topped 70 points more than twice in their careers. Ten of them are HOFers, with two more locks (Chelios & Lindstrom) to be as well.
None have done it since the lockout.
I wouldn’t call it a no-can-do-again, but I would def call that a “stretch.”
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Hockey-Ref doesn’t make it easy to find that out. I would have to be at my Monte Carlo Machine at home.
Define “close” and I can take a look later.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Sandis Ozolinsh hit 68 once and then never topped 52 in ten more seasons. He’s the first guy who came to my mind.
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That brings up another question in my mind. Was 52 points his best season after hitting 68, and how often did he come close to 52? Hindsight being 20/20, did he plateau near 52 points and if so, was that indicative of his “true” ceiling?
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. I definitely see some hills and valleys there. After hitting 52, his next highest was 44 and after hitting that a second time, he didn’t get close to that again. Definitely not as consistent as I thought he would be.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
He also had substance abuse problems. Just something to consider.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
People didn’t call him Boozolinsh for nothing.
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by Steckel Me Elmo on May 16, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Dave Babych had 74 in 82-83, and although he had a 62, the best he did after that was 53.
Ron Greschner had a 72 and then only topped 60 once after that.
Jeff Brown had 78 in 92-93 and never topped 60 again.
Reed Larson had a 74, and then his best after that was 62.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Notice how all of those peak seasons happened in the age 23-26 year range. It just may be that Green has already hit his peak (as someone else mentioned) points-wise.
WTF happened to Jeff Brown? He just fell off the face of the hockey earf.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
McNally said:
and come close to his offensive ceiling (70+ points)
Why are we arguing about whether McNally thinks Green is going to surpass 70 points? I think that’s a misreading of what McNally said. He basically said “Green was awesome on offense for two years and was very good on defense last year, and if he can come close to that great offense and keep the good defense, then he’ll be a fantastic defenseman.” Which is kind of a trivial thing to say, but I don’t see any problem with it.
I mean, the words “if” and “and come close to” are in this sentence. Why are we hammering McNally for supposedly having predicted it actually would happen?
And on the other quote that seems to be drawing ire:
Critics will correctly note that even if he played a full season in 2010-11 Green was still only on pace for about 40 points. He should be better than that. The Caps need him to be more productive, especially on their mediocre power play. But we have three years of evidence that Green is better than that and one that says he isn’t. Which is the safe bet?
I just read this to be saying that Green’s better than a 40 point man. Not that he thinks he’ll hit 70.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Why are we hammering McNally for supposedly having predicted it actually would happen?
Whose hammering him? I am saying I take the under and bet against season(s) close to the Norris noms
And “and come close to his offensive ceiling (70+ points)” is saying he will be better than 40 points, no? And perhaps be closer to 70, like 60ish?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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I think 55 is a fair O/U – half-way between the two, near (but not at) the top in reccent D single-season highs…
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by J.P. on May 16, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s a perfect O/U, but I still take the under. At least for the next few years.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Here’s an interesting question for the group – in what season does John Carlson first surpass Mike Green in points per game?
Obviously, the key here will be PP TOI – Carlson crushed Green in ES Pts/60 this year, Green had the upperhand with the extra man.
Still, I’m inclined to go with… never. Am I wrong?
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Carlson can take more abuse. He’ll probably get the tougher minutes and have worse numbers as long as Green’s healthy.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Carlson will need to get off that shutdown pairing, I think. Looks unlikely, but even Q in Chicago broke up Keith-Seabrook this season to get Keith some more offense time, so I guess it’s possible.
I’ll go with the first year either of them spends on a different team or out of the league (i.e. retirement, I’m thinking). Given I don’t see the former case happening, honestly, until Green is in his mid 30s, I’ll go with 2021. Probably less accurate as throwing a dart blindfolded.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it’ll happen at some point, maybe everything comes together for Carlson. But if it happens in more than one fluke year that’s a real bad sign for Green, or Carlson is winning the Norris.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yeah, I can see that – it nearly happened this year. I guess the question I’m getting at is “In what year will John Carlson be a more productive player, offensively, than Mike Green?”
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I’m inclined to go with… never. Am I wrong?
I think so. I say 2012-13.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Interesting. I simply don’t see the offensive instincts or ability in Carlson that I do in Green.
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Agreed. Personally, I don’t ever see Carlson surpassing Green’s offensive numbers when both of them are healthy.
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by The Ghost of Bebop on May 16, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
How much of that do you think is RAL’s assertion of being paired with Alzner, or is it a case of him still learning the ropes and feeling hesitant to come up in plays a little more?
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by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I think he’s certainly not in a position where he can ignore defensive responsibility for increased offense (not that any defenseman ever really is, but you know what I mean).
But I also think he doesn’t (yet) use his shot enough, makes some bad decisions on pinches and passes, and simply doesn’t have the puck-carrying skills that Green has. None of this is a knock on him, btw, but rather praise for Green (who, of course, also makes some bad decisions out there).
Oh, and Carlson Wrap in 43 minutes…
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I think Carlson has Ryan Suter potential; he’ll be great on D, smooth skater, excellent passer, but he doesn’t have that explosive one-man-offense potential that Green has.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on May 16, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well put.
Back to Green, I know I’m a broken record on this, but I think that (if healthy) he’s the guy who would stand to benefit from the right coaching change the most. His raw talent is exceedingly rare, and his improvement at both ends of the ice, while maybe not the tip of the iceberg, certainly show that he can improve, given the right teacher. I still think he’s got Scott Niedermayer potential, but am not convinced that the present group of folks can coax it out of him.
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Yeah, it’ll just be interesting to see how he’d react to BB’s firing given how close they are. Of course, if he’s too mentally fragile with BB’s firing then he’s not ever going to reach that Scott Niedermayer potential (which I agree with) anyway.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
a coaching change will either be the best thing that ever happened to him, or send him into a spiral that will be depressing as hell to watch. Sadly, the odds seem 50-50.
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Well, offensive-minded D are normally going to be paired with a defensive D (I.E. Green with Schultz) so I don’t see the pairing as a huge factor. There might be some hesitation or unwillingness to jump up into the play, but I just don’t think Carlson will ever be as creative as Green.
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by The Ghost of Bebop on May 16, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Green is on an offensive downswing, and will be for the next few years, allowing Carlson to catch up.
I’m doing some stat studies on players with concussions before and after and think the future is not as bright for green.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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So you’re firmly in the “Trade Green” camp, but that’s easier said than done. Would you give him away simply for the cap space it’d free up? Do you need a bluechipper (or two) back? High picks?
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This is such a tough question to answer, but I am not of the notion that you trade Green for cap space. Maybe he makes $1mil over what he “should,” so it’s not like his K is killing the team, but I just don’t see him being as productive in the short (2-4 yrs) term.
A player (NHL starter) and a 1st would be a starting point, but again, this is well outside of my wheelhouse.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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___
But this past season was the first of his NHL career where he didn’t out-perform (or at least provide fair value for) his contract, no? And even if next season is another one, the Caps have Green as an RFA at the end of it meaning that, in theory at least, he won’t be overpaid in year’s 2-4 of your 2-4 year window – he’ll have a new deal next summer based on where his game is at that point. There’s a real opportunity for Green to once again get a contract that he out-performs (or at least provides fair value for), no?
And while I admit that it’s nothing but a purely emotional response, I can’t help but think of a couple of other puck-movers that the Caps ran out of town on a rail… and what they went on to do:
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I rarely minimize pictures. This one had to go.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
/starts reflexively whooping
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Can anyone enlighten me as to the genesis of that crowd reaction to his touching of the puck? I don’t remember Robert Fachet ever explaining it.
by Acer Jonesy's Laughker on May 16, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Kevin Hatcher got ridden out of here on a rail too, no? I know he wanted to be dealt, but a lot of fans KILLED the guy.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mention him b/c he didn’t win a Cup for the Pens (but he did top 50 points for them in a season), but he definitely comes to mind as well.
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Hatcher’s numbers are pretty crazy, especially his 92-93 season where he dropped 34/45/79. People just saw that he was 6’ 3 230 and wondered why he didn’t hit people more. (and boy, does THAT sound familiar).
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, fans hated him.
If the Caps had a D who put up 34/45/79, I wouldn’t care if he went the whole season without a hit.
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Absolutely! It’s the same thing people used to rip on Manny Ramirez for. I don’t CARE if the guy’s batshit insane. If the guy’s OPSing in the thousands every year, he can play the outfield in a diaper for all I care.
If a guy has one skill that he’s elite at, the hell with everything else. You can find other guys to do that.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Green ain't exactly the NHL...
equivalent of Manny, who was a big-time player on a World Series winning team (even if he was on the juice). Green is a good player, when healthy, but far from great. I’d certainly consider trading him for a tough-minded starter and a no. 1.
by slipperyice on May 16, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Manny Ramirez in the playoffs through his age 27 season: .223 av/.313 obp/.473 slg.
Greener’s 25. He’s still got some time to turn around that playoff record.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramirez also never had the durability issues that plague Green every single playoffs. In fact, Manny’s numbers were remarkably consistent once the playoffs came around. Green’s performance has fallen short of expectations for three straight playoff series now.
And Manny doesn’t play a contact sport! I’d be willing to bet Mike Green stays healthier if nobody is throwing elbows at his head or slamming him into the boards.
I also bet Green’s weight wouldn’t have been an issue if he was in the MLB. Manny wasn’t the most slender guy.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I bet Mike Green comes back from injury faster if he’s shooting testosterone in his ass
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably so. Just to cement my heartless and uncaring reputation, I think there should be wider latitude for players to do that sort of stuff, especially when recovering from injury.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
It’s medicine. In controlled doses, it makes you better. Yeah, I agree with you, as long as a doctor’s making the call.
“Drugs are bad mkay” is bad policy.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
The obvious problem there is whether you can trust team doctors.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Agreed. But that’s a general problem. True of cortisone or any other steroid.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He made a lot of bad defensive plays.
A lot of bad defensive plays.
Hatcher drove me crazy, and not because he didn’t hit. It’s because he didn’t defend well, and didn’t seem to get better at it.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
If you wait for another season of confirmation tho and you’re wrong, then you may have severely hurt his value. I say the risk is not worth it, cause I don’t feel he is turning in more than a 40-50 point season – if he’s even healthy.
I would bet GMs around the league are thinking like you do, so it is easier to get fair value for him now.
Maybe it’s the wrong decision two years from now with hindsight, but I think for right now it is the smart one.
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It would be a huge “sell low” to move him now. Can’t stay healthy. Bad shoulder killed his shot. Head issues. Playoff choker. Awful tattoos.
Sure, his value could sink even lower, but to me it’s worth seeing if they don’t. Of course, I have no idea what’s being offered, so it’s a somewhat pointless discussion – obviously there’s a price point at which I’d gladly bid adieu to MG52.
And I’d note that “Maybe it’s the wrong decision two years from now” seems to be a major driver in GMGM’s thinking/acting, if history is any guide.
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his value could sink even lower, but to me it’s worth seeing if they don’t.
This is the crux (Word-A-Day calender) of where we differ I think. I feel it is not worth the risk.
I also know I am in the minority.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
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Short of being willing to trade him for nothing (which neither of us support), how can either of us determine if it’s worth the risk without knowing what the options for not taking that risk are?
Would you take a sixth round pick for him, or would it be worth seeing if he bounces back if that was the best offer you got?
There’s a spectrum of possible returns and a point along the line where each of us would believe keeping him to no longer be worth that risk. Those points… that’s where we differ.
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Interesting line of thinking. I’m inclined to agree, particularly if the team’s offensive approach remains pretty similar to what we saw this season. There’s a danger of continual widespread offensive regression overall aside from, say, Johansson and if that’s the case then BB isn’t going to last long one way or another.
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That’s a good number. I’ll take under too, but just ever so slightly (I feel like push, but the likelihood he posts 55 exactly is slim). I don’t know that the Caps will rebound all that much next season.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Who’s hammering him?
If my aunt had wheels she would be a wagon. The chances of Green returning back to the 70-point level are pretty low, IMO. A lot had to go right for the org as a whole for him to hit that mark and I just don’t see it happening again.
… seems pretty strongly worded to me. Aunt/wheels/wagon usually gets rolled out only when someone is pretty far from reality.
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by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s just my snark, not hammering him. Sorry if it came off that way.
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One of the owners of Owen Sound is Washington Capitals Legend Paul MacDermid. Congrats to him and the Attack for winning the OHL title.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 8:16 AM EDT reply actions
"When the boards and glass start shaking at the Capital Centre, Paul is usually the reason behind it..."
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Mike Hough was claimed by Florida in the expansion draft on June 24, 1993. He was a Cap for four entire days.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions
So briefly I don’t even remember him here. I do remember Mike Lalor on the team though.
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by Rather Bengt on May 16, 2011 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Seeing as the trade was in June, he never suited up.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions
For some reason I used to get Curtis Leschyshyn and Luke Richardson mixed up all the time.
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That story about Richardson coming home last year and finding his daughter had committed suicide was just horrible.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Reggie Savage. #1 pick that never panned out. Shame, really.
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He’s the black Alexandre Giroux. Look at his AHL numbers.
5 30+ goal seasons in the A, and one 40 goal season. Best season was 91-92 in Baltimore when he dropped 42/28/70
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
15 goal, 120 PIM forward? For whatever reason I didn’t think he was all that productive (well he wasn’t as much here anyway).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah never won the heralded “True Grit” trophy with the Caps that I am aware of.
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by Rather Bengt on May 16, 2011 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions
This is nothing new but: Lucic is a punk.
Just makes me want Boston to lose even harder.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on May 16, 2011 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
$.02 - Boogard:Hollebon article
I appreciate Hollebon’s motivation in writing this article about concussions and fighting in the NHL, but his approach and reasoning seem faulty to me.
Regardless of what the medical examiner determines to be the cause [of death], this is another young man victimized by concussions…
You can’t lead an article off with something like Boogard’s death, take a 90 degree turn at the sign marked “concussions”, have a short stop at “where does fighting belong in our game?”, then try to link back up to Boogard’s passing without substantiating your argument. It’s a post hoc argument that confuses and waters-down the issues. If you want to talk intelligently about how fighting, concussions, and causes of death are linked, I think you have to have all your ducks in a row before you make your claims.
I wanted to write an article about it, but I’m waiting until we actually “know” what killed him. Baseless speculation on what did/didn’t/might have caused it doesn’t help anyone.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
You’ll never be a true journalist if you let things like facts hold you back!
by DrinkingPartner on May 16, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
*
Doesn’t help anyone other than the author that advances said baseless speculation in time to take advantage of page views.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
I agree with you. There could be any number of other demons Boogaard was dealing with. Tough guys in the NHL have a history of substance abuse, is that linked to the concussions? And saying “regardless of the ME report” is just dumb. If you are hands down going to disregard the ME report because it disagrees with your narrative, why should I have any respect for what you write? What if the ME finds an overdose? What if there is a congenital defect that hadn’t been identified? There are a lot of reasons this death could have happened.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
The Boogaard family has agreed to donate Derek’s brain to science. (Toronto Star story) I hope it helps them going forward.
Quand on change d'attitude ça change tout
That's extremely generous and helpful to future players
wow
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Whether the cause of death was caused from CTE or an accidental painkiller overdose, I’d presume that people want this to resonate in whatever ways the Duerson suicide (or Probert’s early demise did), and even if he had CTE, I sadly don’t think we’re even at a point that it’s going to move the needle.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
People are just so “eager” to write the “he died from a concussion!!” story because it’s so easy to write.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. The harder part is “what do we do about it?” especially when guys like Jeff Halpern essentially skip the quiet room.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I just don’t know if there’s anything we “can” do about it. I kinda view it as this unwritten “agreement” we’ve made as a society where we watch these guys show off their athletic skills, and at the same time we have to accept that really bad things are going to happen when they run into each other or other things. You can add all the safety precautions you want (and should be applied with the utmost urgency), but we have to take the good stuff with the bad stuff that inevitably happens. The best we can do is try to provide for them when they can’t help themselves any longer with the appropriate medical care.
Until we can cover them in pillows and have them play the same speed with no one getting hurt at all, this is what we have to deal with.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Considering how much money they make, even the pluggers can set themselves up to take care of themselves down the line. Shouldn’t these guys be able to assume these risks if they do so in an informed manner?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Medical bills can add up in a hurry, especially for guys who bounce around between the minors and the L. I mean, Matt Hendricks is 29, and he just signed his first multi year contract for a little over 500k per year. Before that, he spent one year in the E and six in the A.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
And there’s no guarantee he’s going to have a job when his two years in DC are up.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet in just his 3 seasons with the Caps he’s going to make more money than I make in my 20s and 30s put together.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
And most of these guys a from towns where the dollar goes a lot further than it does in DC or NYC.
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For instance, Biz Nasty has been hovering around league minimum and spent his time in the AHL, but he has a house built and paid for back in his hometown. As long as he can scratch together enough for the taxes on the house, he’ll never go homeless.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
and their long term health problems are probably exponentially more significant than yours
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Maybe. Although sitting at a desk has already started giving me chronic back problems and it appears as though heart disease, diabetes, and other dietary problems cause serious problems to people in my line of work years down the line.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Unfortunately I don’t know as much about hockey, but football players, for example, have a life expectancy of 55 years. 52 for lineman.
The long term health risks for sports where guys run into each other for a living seem to be very significant.
Much more so than treating back problems or diabetes.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Have you seen someone suffer from diabetes? Back pain is incredibly variable, and can be crippling for some people, but let’s brush that aside. Diabetes can cause blindness, loss of feet, horrible infections, etc. It’s not a joke.
And again, these guys are extremely well compensated and can weigh the risks. A lot more guys retire early because of their healthy. Some hang on for the money. They know the risks, they can make their decisions.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yes. My uncle died of it, and am probably watching the same thing happen with other family members too.
But regardless, I don’t how this is a counter-argument to my point.
The numbers, especially for the NFL, speak for themselves.
Lower life expectancy. Far more long-term problems than your average person.
I am not absolving any individual of their responsibility for their choices, I am also not going to sit back and pretend like the fans, the owners and league shouldn’t take a vested interest in improving player safety, especially as the scientific knowledge grows.
Player safety is complicated. It’s not good enough to shrug our shoulders and say, ‘well, it’s a physical game, and they knew what they were signing up for.’
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
And by the same token I’ll be lucky to make NHL league-minimum by the time I’m 45, much less in my 20s. Are they going to be living like kings? No. But can they afford themselves a nice middle class living if they are smart with their money? I think so. Of course there’s a lot of variation, but I bristle when people talk about modern athletes like they are gladiators forced to destroy their bodies for the sake of society’s entertainment.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
by Rob Parker on May 16, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Related to athletes and money management: the story of Keith McCants.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
No, they’re not forced to do anything.
But as Malcolm Gladwell wrote, doesn’t mean society and specifically the sporting world & NHL don’t have an obligation to make long term health a primary concern.
In other words, player safety must always be important, even if these guys are paid well and the risks are known. (or in the case of concussions, the long term risks are relatively unstudied)
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Why should other people have more responsibility to look out for their health than they do?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Because in a civilized country we help those who are unable (or even unwilling sometimes) to look after themselves.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s an awfully scary line you’re walking. And we’re getting way too close to verboten topics. But if the relatively rich and powerful can’t make their own decisions, what chance do we Proles have?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Being rich doesn’t necessarily make you smart….a lot of these boys have the equivalent of a high school diploma or less…
I'll never put on a life jacket again
I’d bet they all have HS diploma’s, lots of them have college degrees, and most of them are smarter than you give them credit for.
And, no, being rich doesn’t make you smart. But it gives you access to smart people. It gives you access to a lot of things. If we are going to say that people that make a minimum of $500K per year need special looking out for by society, what is the logical implication for the rest of us?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Being poor doesn’t make you dumb, either. It doesn’t matter how much money you make; if you’ve learned sound financial principles, you’ll make good decisions. I’m sure the NHLPA has programs to help players handle their wealth and I’m sure one of the first pieces of advice they get is to have a reliable accountant and investment person.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it might be limited to an obligatory initial classroom session (and little else) across all sports. The only more surprising number than infirmed athletes are those that run out of cash, some during their playing days.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
And then watch them make it rain and it becomes less surprising.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Well there’s some of that, but also family guys (or non-OGs) like Mark Brunell.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Brunell broke? Or is he an example you’re using of a guy that didn’t piss it all away?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yeah, he had a truckload of debt (and I think filed Chapter 11 last year).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn, that explains why he’s still hanging around playing. (Or was, dunno if he retired.)
I’ve just heard too many stories about athletes wasting money to be shocked by it. Didn’t Mike Tyson go bankrupt with a shark tank in his foyer?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
And tigers and all kinds of crap, yeah.
Whenever I hear about the non-obvious ones it’s always surprising. It’s those bad business deals that screw ’em.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Like Sergei Fedorov?
"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov
by Scott in Shaw on May 16, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
The NHL has this so it’s possible the NHL has its own version.
This is a sensitive topic, so I’ll be careful when I ask: Is this program as developed as it is because NFL players need it more than NHL players?
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah! Writing fail, sorry. The NFL has that program, so it’s possible the NHL has its own version.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Because the league gets to choose who it allows to play the game — who is going to be successful — by setting the rules. The rules define who gets to play. And if the rules encourage people to injury their health, then you’re going to get players who are willing to injure their health. It’s up to the league to decide how it wants this to go.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And not up to individuals to determine the level of risk they are willing to face?
I think the league can and should do as many studies as possible to get the stat of current knowledge further along. I think they should freely give players that information. I think the league should make rules that will keep players relatively safe. But I also believe that at the end of the day two things are true: 1) It’s the players’ choice, ultimately. 2) You can’t make the game 100% safe and still have it be the game we love. Danger and violence is part of it. It’s a thin line to walk between the two, but people have to realize there is going to be inherent risks in the game.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
There is a spectrum of risk-seeking behavior in the world. Sure people determine that level, but they determine it on their own. Then the league rules determine which of those people will get to play. If you set the rules to benefit suicidal folks like Mike Green, then that’s what you’ll get.
To use a different example, Matt Cooke is who he is. I don’t think the rules will change him one way or the other. But the league can set the rules (as they currently have done) to make his behavior an effective strategy. Or they can set the rules so guys like Cooke harm their team and don’t get jobs.
If fighting is legal, the league will have fighters. If it isn’t, then it won’t. And I think the league can take at least some steps to make risky behavior less helpful in terms of scoring and stopping goals.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that’s true, but what can the league do to make Green stay healthy? Outlaw blocking shots? Would more vigorous enforcement of elbows have prevented the Stepan incident?
And short of banning fighting, which I know is a goal of many people, what are you going to do about saving Boogaard from the alleged concussion-induced death? I’d say maybe if you restore fighting to the original purpose; make it so you have to be a hockey player that can fight instead of a fighter that can skate, you might be on the right track. I’d bet the Boogaard/Shelley fights are more dangerous just because of the size of the men (although they are also extremely skilled at defending themselves). Fights like Carcillo/Hendricks are more likely to be a) organic to the game and b) be resolved without massive head trauma.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Restrictor plates on the skates?
I’m not advocating anything that extreme. Perhaps just moving to a more consistent and less Campbelly enforcement regime. But I do think hockey would be better if somehow someone with Green’s talent was allowed the freedom to skate more openly.
Beyond that, my main point is that the league and its fans choose the risk level they’re comfortable with. Hockey fans love high risk. We and the league just ought to be cognizant of what it means — of the costs to our and their choices.
And I ain’t stepping into the Boogaard mess. not until we actually know something
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Green is allowed to skate more openly. His problem is that he skates openly into corners and gets smashed. A slower pace would be more boring, but probably more safe for him. Especially if part of that slower pace was allowing his partner to run some interference on the forechecker. Assuming, that is, he had a partner that was ever willing to hit anything and wasn’t a giant sissy on skates. Jeff Schultz is so soft he won’t even hit on 13.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
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So much better that he re-signs with the regular season powerhouse Caps? Or just better-than-average better?
by DrinkingPartner on May 16, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Twitter is blowing up about the Thrashers potentially moving.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
AJC guy tweeted:
I’ve confirmed that Atlanta Spirit /True North are in negotiations about sale and relocation of #Thrashers. Story to come
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And then the Red Wings fans can talk about their push to move to the East… and then get all whiny when it doesn’t happen.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
good god, I’m going to need a lot of beer to survive the inevitable bitching this summer.
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Earlier I caught a tweet that said the Red Wings owner said the team would not be moving to the East this upcoming season, but he wasn’t going to rule that out for 2012-2013.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes sense, but DET fans claim they have a standing agreement with the NHL that if relocation occurs they are the first team that gets to move east. NSH makes more sense, IMO.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
So Detroit to the SE? Probably not, but it sure would eliminate the “Caps only get points because of the southleast!” trolls
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I think it’d be DET into the Northeast division, and then a ripple effect of re-alignment through the rest of the conference.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Welcome to tonight’s Southeast Division matchup between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Or Flyers. But how do you split the PA teams?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Can’t split NJ/NYR/NYI either, although it becomes much easier if the Isles move away.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear Atlanta might have an arena opening up!
by David Getz on May 16, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Hey, gallows humor!
/DC United fan
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The Islanders should move to Atlanta. Then, an opening exists in the Atlantic that the Caps can fill, and then Nashville can replace the Caps in the Southeast. Sign me up.
The Islanders drew the lowest attendance of the 2010-2011 season, but they are intent on staying on Long Island. There’s even a proposal to develop a new arena in Nassau County.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
They have been trying to get a new arena for years and years. This may be the last chance. Wang has been a committed owner, but there’s a limit to how many losses he can eat.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Wang has been a committed owner? Come on. Wang, one of the richest men in America, has been committed only to have a new arena given to him.
He ate losses lots of guys wouldn’t. He stuck with them, has been committed to keeping them there.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Look, his personal losses are likely minimal. There are very few owners in the major professional leagues that lose anything. The team may lose money, but the owner doesn’t.
That doesn’t change the fact that teams that lose as much money as the Isles have for the last decade generally either change locations or owners. Wang hasn’t done either. But if that’s not enough for you, in what ways has Wang not been a committed owner?
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on May 16, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, he’s hired and fired a string of really terrible GMs, including Neil Smith for, what, a day? He’s also strung along the community for five years about this whole Lighthouse Project debacle and has repeatedly underreported how much money the Islanders received from the county as well as television revenues.
He’s also, outside of the NHL, a pretty assholish businessman.
He’s also, outside of the NHL, a pretty assholish businessman.
Irrelevant.
I have planned my grand attacks; I will stand behind their backs. With my brand new battle-axe, they will taste my wrath. They will hear me say as the pavement whirls, "I hate California girls."
by Steckel Me Elmo on May 16, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
One man’s asshole is another man’s success. I’ve taken classes from and met people that worked directly with him and they would not paint that kind of picture. Milbury was a disaster. That’s his one real mistake and it’s a dagger. You also don’t seem to be all that familiar with what has happened with the arena, but the blame lands on the Town of Hempstead. I hasn’t strung anyone along. He has been clear that he wants, and needs, a new arena for the Isles to be viable on Long Island. He’s renegotiated his initial plans several times and never been the reason the deal failed.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
What are his stadium demands?
What % is he paying?
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Per the current plan the city will finance initial construction and revenue sharing and I believe sales tax will cover the cost. Allegedly the entire bill will be covered from money generated by the new arena. At the very least, Wang agreed to share his profits (and presumably open his NYI books) in order to get this project going. But up front money? I haven’t seen anything that says he’s paying up front.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Allegedly the entire bill will be covered from money generated by the new arena.
There has pretty much never been a study that wasn’t funded by the developer in question that proves this is even possible.
It’s essentially meaningless, IMO.
Owners should pay at least 75% the cost of the stadium, if not 100%.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
You should go check out Lighthouse Hockey, but it looks like this study was funded by the county. Wang spent millions over the past decade having his own plans developed, and the town/county didn’t trust any of them. They just did their own study and this is the results.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
You need a study done by an objective source.
I am specifically not discounting the entire thing, but there are many reasons a county would be biased in its analysis.
Even so, if this is a case where the county would make its investment back, it will be the exception, not the rule.
"By far the worst performers on the (Redskins) are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Being committed is not the same as being good at picking good GMs. And as F&B mentioned, it is definitely not his fault that the Lighthouse Project has taken so long. I don’t think there is any argument that he has not been committed to owning the Isles and keeping them on Long Island. Whether or no he is going about it the best way is a different question.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on May 17, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I haven’t paid much attention to this issue. Does he really want to contribute nothing for the new arena? I don’t really understand how owners get away with this. The Vikings only want to kick in 44% for a new stadium and it seems like the public in Minnesota will agree to that.
I think Wang’s waiting for a counteroffer. Any counteroffer. I don’t think anyone has any idea what Wang’s willing to put up because he ain’t wrecking his negotiating position by telling, and nobody’s engaging him on it at all.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I had been under the impression that Wang was going to foot the bill for the new arena and development from the lighthouse project. It’s more than just an arena he wants to build, so he’d stand to gain a lot from the development. I thought it was more zoning/government approval for the project rather than money that was holding the project up.
Release the Mackan!
by Killer_Carlson on May 16, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
How about scrapping the divisions altogether?
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
All of them? So it’s just a free-for-all?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
30 1-team divisions.
0-game regular season.
82-game round-robin first round of the playoffs, but you determine how many times teams play each other based on general geographic proximity, generally playing the closest teams six times and the furthest teams once, maybe twice per season.
Top-8 teams oriented on each side (east-west-wise) of, say, PA’s western border make the second round, with 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc., and each side has a mini-tourney, with the winners facing off for the Stanley Cup.
Revolutionary.
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by J.P. on May 16, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Best part, of course, is that everyone gets to raise a “Division Champs” banner at the start of each year!
$20 says I could sell Gary Bettman on this plan with that last point alone.
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Heh…no keep the conferences. Balanced schedule within the conference, top 8 qualify.
I mean if you are doing playoffs by conference standing, the divisions are kind of lame.
It isn’t even anger-inducing. It does not seem to be worth that kind of emotional investment. It might not even be disappointing any more. It is expected.
-Peerless 5.6.2011
I would guess the Flyers would be sent down to the SE rather than the Pens since they’re geographically closer to Washington.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
But they’re also closer to NJD, NYR, and NYI
Pittsburgh is the outlier in that division
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be smart to put CBJ and Pitt in the same division. There’s a natural hatred between the two areas, plus Pens fans will help fill up the arena in Columbus.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
That would be quite the interesting ripple. If Detroit goes to the Northeast, and a team from the Northeast goes to the Atlantic, who gets the boot? I think the NHL would fold or relocate the Islanders franchise before splitting up Phi, Pit, NYR and NJ. It was bad enough that the Caps got the boot out of that division despite the fact that each team in the Atlantic division is closer geographically to the Caps than their nearest division rival in the Southeast (Carolina).
I wonder if they’d prefer 2 divisions per conference in that case.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
you know I do
In a world with Atlanta moving to Winnipeg:
Campbell
Smythe
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Phoenix Coyotes
San Jose Sharks
Winnipeg Jettlings
Vancouver Canucks
Norris
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Prince of Wales
Patrick
Florida Panthers
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals
Adams
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Adams
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
One of these things is not like the other…
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on May 16, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
not seeing whatever you’re thinking of
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of teams with long-standing hockey traditions….and then there’s Columbus.
I’m just really out of synch today, apparently. I blame allergies.
"Neuvy was eating pucks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner."
by SeattleCapsFan on May 16, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Poor Columbus. I tried hard to put them with Pittsburgh, but something had to give and that was it.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I know being a Canadian team is different than American…but let’s not forget that the Sens came into the league in 1992.
by Yoshietree on May 16, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nah, see about Carolina below. And besides, Detroit should be in a division with other Canadian teams. Detroit and Toronto is the best NHL rivalry that isn’t.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
any particular reason you put Carolina with midwest teams?
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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read the original post (also linked to above).
I’m trying to create new cultural rivalries. I think Carolina’s natural rivals are Atlanta, Nashville, St. Louis and Dallas.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Detroit fans claim this, but the league has said that there is no such agreement. I would love for Nashville to be in the SE.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
the league keeps their mouth shut. What we have is one person connected to Columbus saying someone in the league said there is no such agreement.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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they’re desperate to get back in the East.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
reportedly, the organization. Lower travel costs, the weaker sister division, gets them back to playing Toronto and the other Original Six teams more often.
Obviously, their fans have been screaming to make this move since the moment realignment was announced.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Ok. I just think that there are other teams that have it worse (most notably the Predators, Wild, and Blue Jackets).
ignoring the repercussions this will have on the east, Minnesota should be rooting for Atlanta to go to Winnipeg and Detroit to go East. Minnesota can take Detroit’s spot in the Central, and Winnipeg moves into Minnesota’s vacated NW spot.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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Wait… but who would leave the Northeast to let the Red Wings in there?
To me, move Atlanta/Winnipeg to NW. Move Minnesota to Central. Move Nashville to SE.
well, like I said, ignoring that nasty ripple on the East…
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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Either Boston or Buffalo to the Atlantic. Probably Buffalo since they’re in the same state as the Rangers and Islanders, though Boston may make more geographic sense.
Either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia to the Southeast. Or you can go nuts and move the Islanders to the Southeast, acknowledging that they probably won’t be there much longer.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Boston might be disinclined to give up that long-standing rivalry with Montreal.
but, hey, we were all disinclined to give up our long-standing rivalries and we still got thrown into the SE. So, screw ‘em! Send them to the Atlantic. and send Philly to SE purgatory while you’re at it.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Because when you drive south from Detroit you hit Canada.
The Detroit hockey community really has much more in common with Ontario than Illinois.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Detroit (and Columbus) are also further east than Atlanta. which is just strange enough that I had to go look it up for myself when i first heard it. We think of Atlanta as a very “eastern” city, and Detroit is solidly “midwest.”
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Or Columbus
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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In the SE, though? Moving NSH means no more re-alignment is necessary. Moving CBJ or DET is going to cause a domino effect of re-alignment.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
No, sorry, I mean CBJ moves East. It’s a possibility I heard, nothing more.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Yeah, they make sense too. Wouldn’t you want to get them into the Pens’ division, though? At the very least it’s probably a stretch to get them to the SE, so it’s Atlantic or Northeast. I just think moving NSH is the cleanest solution.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
NSH is def cleaner, but from what I hear they aren’t that keen on moving. DET/CHI are pretty big draws.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Which is why I think they should stay out West. It’s no good for the league to have all the premier American draws in the East.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
DET/TOR would be a fairly decent draw…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
there’s an old Norris rivalry that really needs to come back.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
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Just remake the old Norris again: DET, TOR, CHI, MIN, and STL would be appointment TV almost every night.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
even with the current incarnation of Minnesota, well worth paying attention to. Almost as awesome as bringing back the Patrick.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
They have a whole group of classic natural geographical rivals they can put in Divisions. They key is sprinkling in teams like CBJ and such. They could probably put them in the Division with Boston, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa.
And he cocked both his pistols and he spit in the dirt; And he walked out into the street
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess we also have to consider where ATL moves to. Depending on that answer, you’ll have different response scenarios in terms of which other divisions have to give up a team.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Realignment of divisions based on where Atlanta ends up is one thing, but Nashville is the only team currently in existence that makes any sense being added to the Southeast division. Of course, Nashville won’t want any part of that as Detroit and Chicago are much better draws than any of the teams in Southeast. Relocating to the Southeast wouldn’t help Nashville with travel either, given how spread out the division is geographically.
Although moving NSH to the SE means they might actually win their division and would make them a perennial playoff team. The Central division, in terms of competition, is a much rougher ride for NSH. And when you consider travel outside the division it’s even more stark. I’m sure they’d love to spend all year in the eastern time zone and not have to make two trips a year to each of VAN, CGY, EDM, SJS, LAK, ANA, PHX (pending), DAL, etc.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
NSH traveled ~1054 miles for each road game.
Avg travel for SE team: 540 miles.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
It’s really not that much of a difference. They would go a little further, sure, but they would get more exposure to newer fans. I think it is rare for people from Detroit or Chicago to be anything but Red Wings and Blackhawks fans, respectively. And people who move to Chicago are more likely to adopt the hometown team, so why adopt Nashville? DC is a transplant’s city, and the Predators could pick up more fans. Florida as a whole has a lot of transplants as well.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
*edit: they would go further in the division, but not in the conference. They’re much closer to the East Coast than the West Coast.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s a thought:
Why not just eliminate the geographical names/locations for the Divisions/Conferences? Go back to naming them after people. That way you aren’t hamstrung by wags who point out that the sport must be ridiculous because Columbus and Nashville play in the Western Conference.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Go back to naming them after people.
Or blogs.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
But then it’s still a matter of geographical distance and the cost associated with such. One of the reasons why Columbus asked to move was because it had to travel so far to play teams in its own conference and that cost a lot of money.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
at the same time, that’s the lamest excuse ever. Like Columbus is the only West team facing that issue?
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Flip CBJ and Toronto. Everyone’s happy.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like a fail on the NHL’s part. They’ve invested so much in Phoenix they don’t seem to have enough left to invest in Atlanta. The latter’s the smarter investment, I would think.
Also Atlanta’s city council isn’t apparently too keen on helping out on the bills. I thought there was this whole “Thrash+Hawks=Philips naming rights” deal. I guess it wasn’t as ironclad as the ASG said it was.
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There’s always an out, I would imagine.
It’s a shame, because I think it makes a lot of sense for the NHL to be in Atlanta given the city’s size, wealth, and growth, but if no one wants to buy the team, no one wants to buy the team. The thing that’s really sad is that it has come to a bunch of millionaires who had no idea what they were doing fighting over things for years and letting the franchise crap out.
Atlanta is a horrible sports city.
Not true. It’s just that football—and the SEC in general—is king there.
"We know the answers have to come from this room," Hendricks said. "They're in here."
Atlanta’s not a great sports city by any stretch, but it has a lot more people and a lot more money than Phoenix, plus a downtown arena – and Phoenix doesn’t have a great reputation as a sports city either. The Diamonbacks have mediocre attendance numbers and have for several years and the Cardinals are always in the bottom half of the NFL. I don’t have the time to gather the data now, but I’d guess Atlanta’s outdrawn Phoenix more years than not in the last decade if you break it down by sport.
Detroit had that problem a couple of years ago…
by DrinkingPartner on May 16, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Not even this city, in 2003?
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by J.P. on May 16, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Very quickly (and may be wrong), over the last 5 years:
Atlanta outdrew Phoenix/Arizona in all 5 MLB years, 4 of 5 NHL years and 4 of 5 NFL years (Phoenix outdrew Atlanta in all 5 NBA years).
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
According to ESPN’s attendance records, this season, Atlanta was #27 and Phoenix was #29. So Atlanta does outdraw Phoenix, but the difference is less than 1,500 at home.
by redpezrocket on May 16, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn’t help when the team has been so horribly mismanaged that they’ve only had two home playoff games in 12 years and let their best, most marketable player go to New Jersey for a bag of beans.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
And speaking of horrible mismanagement, how are the Florida Panthers escaping any relocation talk? They haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years to the point where their local ratings are getting less than 3,000 homes.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
semi-stable ownership?
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
A bit, yeah. Viner didn’t take over as Chairman until the offseason last year (and all of their collateral has got the whole “rebuild” tone to it when I saw it in January).
That said, if they continue to stink up the joint for the next couple years the League should re-examine that relationship.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
by Bald Pollack on May 16, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The Thrashers have had pretty everything that could go wrong, go wrong from a fanbase-building standpoint. There was the Heatley car accident that hurt the team on the ice and in the community, there was the lockout, selling off the future for those two playoff games (Coburn for Zhitnik, really?), bad drafting, owners suing each other for years…
If the team has a direction, some glimmers of hope, a decent owner…well, they’d never be a flagship franchise, but they could at least survive.
They’ve got a really good young nucleus there between Kane, Pavelec, Bogosian, Byfuglien, Enstrom et al.
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by YvonLabresMoustache on May 16, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
But considering where they’ve been drafting they need to do better. Not a lot of high end talent that isn’t already on the NHL team. For a team that hasn’t really been contending for anything, you’d think that’d be better.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
The Thrashers traded Hossa when he was reaching UFA years. They couldn’t agree on a deal with Kovalchuk. I recall reading articles back before Kovy got traded that speculated that if he signed a 7 year deal with Atlanta, his deal would last longer than the team’s remaining term in Atlanta.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
That’s a point that got lost in last summer’s deal: That Kovy saw a shaky mngt situation in Atlanta which factored into his decision not to accept an offer.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
That’s my feeling exactly on what Kovy saw. He seemed to think the Devils were a better managed team — or that is my assumption.
On a similar note, that’s why Michalek, formerly of Phoenix, didn’t return there since he wasn’t sure that the Coyotes were going to stay in Phoenix. Hence, his deal with the Pens.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Homer.
But you’re probably right. ATL has a lot of potential, especially in minority demographics that the NHL has had a hard time penetrating. And all this right after ATL put together their collection of … marketable… young players.
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Right – 5.7 million people, a lot of growth, a downtown arena, a number of big companies…there’s a lot to work with there. But if you’re among the NHL’s worst in personnel management, drafting, on-ice performance, and ownership for your entire lifespan, it ain’t gonna happen.
I mean, bad teams and terrible ownership has killed interest in markets with rich history – Chicago, Long Island, Boston, Twin Cities – of course the same thing’s going to happen down here if a team’s that poorly run.
You know I’m on board with all of that.
Something I haven’t seen discussed, and I’m curious as to your take on it, is the potential impact of having a team in ATL because there is a major media corporation headquartered there. Is that irrelevant in this day and age, or could there be an upside to having a team in ATL that goes beyond the sheer number of people?
A kitten on fire, a baby in a blender, both sound as sweet as a playoff surrender.
Yeah… that media corporation once owned the team (or at least its founder did) and sold it fairly quickly.
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Via Dreger Report Muller granted permission to interview
1) Mulling Over Muller: A few noteworthy items surfaced while I was being humbled on the golf course. For starters, sources say the Montreal Canadiens have granted assistant coach Kirk Muller permission to speak to NHL teams about coaching vacancies.
Muller has spoken to at least three of the general managers in the market for a head coach, but these discussions are considered to be introductory to acknowledge his availability. Albeit unlikely, it’s possible Muller could return to Montreal and his role as an assistant to Jacques Martin, although it’s widely believed the 45-year-old is ready to become an NHL head coach after five seasons with the Canadiens.
Official NHL coaching vacancies: Minnesota, New Jersey, Ottawa, Dallas, Florida. Not sure if any of them have hired since.
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Per TSNs BobMcKenzie
Curtis Glencross’s new deal with CGY is 4 year, $10.2M total, $2.55M annual cap hit and a no-move clause.
Career year for a 28yo legitimate 2nd/3rd liner who can play on special teams.
Did Laich get more expensive?
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
I don’t think so. Someone was going to play Laich more than he’s worth based on the fact he doesn’t wear a facemask and gives a good quote.
by David Getz on May 16, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and mows his own lawn. shirtless.
Caps fans aren’t on the ledge; they’ve already jumped, and are merely trying to drag others into a mournful descent with them..--Stienz
Pledge Drive 2010-2011: SO KIDS CAN!! Help build a playground
Damn, would’ve liked Glencross, but I was thinking short and max $2 million per year. Again, the player Calgary signs expecting offense isn’t going to provide much, and then they’ll find another good checker who puts up a career year in a contract year, and so the cycle continues…
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by red army line on May 16, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Thought it was a tad high for a 28yo who shot 16% in career year with not much PP time, but this UFA pool is SHALLOW.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Oooh, I don’t think you’re going to like this offseason. The stupid money is going to be flying. Glencross is going to look like a steal come August.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You may not want to read this (emphasis added):
Curtis Glencross took what most would consider a big hometown discount to stay in Calgary.
The new father, husband, and Calgary Flames winger has inked a four-year deal worth $10.2 million rather than test the free-agent market.
“He gave up a lot,” said his mom, Robin Glencross, from their Red Deer home. “But the kids will know their grandparents and aunts and uncles.”
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Heh. Just read it. That’s crazy if he was going to get $3+ mil. That would put Laich in the $4.5+ range easy.
But the talent of UFAs out there just aren’t the best.
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
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Not sure about that. If anything, “Look, Curtis Glencross – who scored 50% more goals than you this year – just signed for $2.55m. Time to get real, Brooks” works in the Caps’ favor. I’m not sure I see the argument for Laich being worth more than 50% more than Glencross.
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Both the Flames and Oilers’ bloggers are pretty high on Curtis Glencross as a solid two-way guy, I’m not sure how much this deal had to do with a career year.
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by Knee high to a duck on May 16, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn’t hurt putting up 24 goals
"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau
See my work on WaPo's Capitals Insider, ESPN Insider and Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB). I also log the Caps scoring chances. The 2010-11 summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg
Rut-roh
SlavaMalamud My God! After what Stan Galiev and Vlad Namestnikov called each other on Facebook, I expect Sean Avery to voice his support of them soon.
FedFedRMNB Stanislav Galiev and Vladislav Namestnikov cursing at each other and “Berd” (Owen Sound’s Roman Berdnikov) on Stan’s FB page. Stay tuned.
You perhaps knew me better as "Your Nation's Capital." Same great commentary, now with 100% more transparency!
eh, they’re teenagers. nothing wrong with that. “Pour it on,” I say….
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Someone heard it was $1 night at the Nats game..
Or maybe he just wanted to see a really bad team from Pittsburgh.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
___
Heh. I posted a pic on Twitter as well:
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Hey, what does it mean when someone has an “L” in a circle over their head?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on May 16, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ha. As I tweeted, “A month ago, this fan might have figured he’d be at a WSH/PIT game tonight, but this is probably not what he had in mind.”
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Wait what?
Since when has one of Mike Green’s strengths been considered “speed”? Don’t confuse his puck-handling and ability to deftly knife through another team’s defense as “speed”. If you watch how attackers go at Green, they often go for the blow-by move because of his stiff hips. The guys we got with good speed are Alzner and Carlson.
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