At the end of last Saturday’s Japer’s Rink Radio, Pepper said that he hoped Bruce would be fired if for no other reason than it would give him hope for next season. And that got me to wondering, how much hope does a coaching change really offer?
Like many, my first reaction after the sweep was that Boudreau had to go. Then I began to waffle when I considered the alternatives to Bruce. My primary question was whether a new coach would be able to push the Caps to the next level. Since there’s no way to actually know the answer to that question, I decided to look back at coaching changes throughout the league and see what kind of success new coaches actually brought to the club hiring them. Before I get into the results, a couple of explanations are in order. First, I only looked back ten seasons starting with the 2000-01 seasons. It seemed like a nice round number and it was pre and post-lockout. Secondly, I only looked at coaches hired during that period, so a coach like Curt Fraser in Atlanta who was hired in 1999 and coached to 2002 wouldn’t count in my data base (although I included him in the chart as a point of reference), but Don Hay in Calgary who was hired in 2000 for the ’00-’01 season would. Finally, since any replacement for Boudreau would start at the beginning of the season, I only counted the first full season of a new coach. For example, when you see Dan Bylsma’s listing, those numbers don’t apply to his Stanley Cup winning year but to the following season. I know it’s not perfect, but it was getting too complicated otherwise. One other note, there were a lot of numbers I had to crunch, so there are probably going to be some mistakes. I tried to double and triple-check everything, but if you find a mistake, I apologize in advance. Other than that, everything else is pretty straight forward.
So let’s get to the results. The chart below shows the listing of every coach hired starting from the 2000-01 season. Here are the key points that the numbers reveal:
· For the ten seasons starting in 2000-01, there have been 95 new coaches hired in the NHL.
· Of those 95 coaches, 52 teams they coached DID NOT make the playoffs in their first full year on the job.
· 23 of the teams with a new coach lost in the first round.
· 10 teams lost in the second round.
· 6 out of the 95 teams with first year coaches made it to the Conference Finals before losing.
· 3 teams made it to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing. (Remember, this wouldn’t include Peter Laviolette when the Flyers made it to the Finals last year because it wasn’t his first full season)
· Only 1 team under a first-year coach actually won the Cup, Pat Burns with the Devils in 2003.
So basically, based on the historical numbers, if you’re the Caps and you’re making a change because you want to at least get to the Finals, you have about a 4% chance of achieving that goal with a new coach. More to the point, the numbers suggest that if you’re an elite team (a team with 100 or more points in the standings) and you make a coaching change, be prepared for disappointment:
· Of the 15 teams with 100 or more points that made a change, only four actually earned more standing points the following season under the new coach.
· 2 of those 15 teams didn’t make the playoffs under their new coach.
· 12 of the 15 lost in the first or second round.
· 1 made it to the Stanley Cup Finals
· No team that had 100 or more points won a Cup the season after they made a coaching change.
So what does this all mean? Well, you can still catch lightning in a bottle like Darryl Sutter did in Calgary in ’04 or Guy Boucher has done In Tampa this season. Or you could hit the jackpot like Pat Burns did in NJ. And again, these numbers don’t include Bylsma’s win in Pittsburgh. But, by and large, the data indicates that changing coaches isn’t the panacea that many fans believe it will be. In fact, if you believe the numbers, more often than not, teams show little if any progress under a new coach, at least not in their first season. And really, at least here in Washington, isn’t winning next year what we’re really after? I know many still want Boudreau gone, but if he isn’t fired, the numbers show that it may not be the worst decision McPhee has made.
|
Team |
New Coach (First Season) |
Point Total End of Preceding Year |
Point Total End of First Full Year |
|
Anaheim |
Guy Charron (00-01) |
83 |
66 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Bryan Murray (01-02) |
66 |
69 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Mike Babcock (02-04) |
69 |
95 (SC Finals) |
|
|
Randy Carlyle (05-present) |
76 |
98 (Conference Finals) |
|
Atlanta |
Curt Fraser (99-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Bob Hartley (02-03) |
54 |
74 (no playoffs) |
|
|
John Anderson (08-10) |
76 |
76 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Craig Ramsey (10-present) |
76 |
83 (no playoffs) |
|
Boston |
Mike Keenan (00-01) |
73 |
88 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Robbie Ftorek (01-03) |
88 |
101 (first round) |
|
|
Mike Sullivan (03-06) |
87 |
104 (first round) |
|
|
Dave Lewis (06-07) |
74 |
76 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Claude Julien (07-present) |
76 |
94 (first round) |
|
Buffalo |
Lindy Ruff ('97-present) |
|
|
|
Calgary |
Don Hay (00-01) |
77 |
73 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Greg Gilbert (01-03) |
73 |
79 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Darryl Sutter (03-06) |
75 |
94 (SC Finals) |
|
|
Jim Playfair (06-07) |
103 |
96 (first round) |
|
|
Mike Keenan (07-09) |
96 |
94 (first round) |
|
|
Brent Sutter (09-Present) |
98 |
90 (no playoffs) |
|
Carolina |
Paul Maurice (97-03) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Peter Laviolette (03-08) |
61 |
76 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Paul Maurice (08-present) |
88 |
97 (conference finals) |
|
Columbus |
Dave King (00-03) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Doug MacLean (03-04) |
69 |
62 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Gerard Gallant (05-06) |
62 |
74 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Ken Hitchcock (06-10) |
74 |
73 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Claude Noel (10-fired) |
79 |
81 (no playoffs) |
|
Chicago |
Alpho Shonen (00-01 fired mid-season) |
78 |
71 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Brian Sutter (01-04) |
71 |
96 (first round) |
|
|
Trent Yawney ((05-06) |
59 |
65 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Denis Savard (06-08) |
65 |
71 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Joel Quennville (08-present) |
88 |
104 (Conference Finals) |
|
Colorado |
Bob Hartley (98-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Tony Granato (02-04) |
99 |
105 (first round) |
|
|
Joel Quennville (05-08) |
100 |
95 (second round) |
|
|
Tony Granato (08-09) |
95 |
69 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Joe Sacco (09-10) |
69 |
95 (first round) |
|
Dallas |
Ken Hitchcock(96-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Dave Tippet (02-09 |
90 |
111 (second round) |
|
|
Marc Crawford (09-11) |
83 |
88 (no playoffs) |
|
Detroit |
Scotty Bowman (98-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Dave Lewis (02-04) |
116 |
110 (first round) |
|
|
Mike Babcock (05- |
109 |
124 (first round) |
|
Edmonton |
Craig MacTavish (00-09) |
88 |
93 (first round) |
|
|
Pat Quinn (09-10) |
85 |
62 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Tom Renney (10-11) |
62 |
62 (no playoffs) |
|
Florida |
Duane Sutter (00-01) |
98 |
66 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Mike Keenan (01-03) |
66 |
60 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Rick Dudley (03-04) |
70 |
75 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Jacques Martin (05-08) |
75 |
85 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Peter DeBoer (08-11) |
85 |
93 (no playoffs) |
|
Los Angeles |
Andy Murray (99-06) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Marc Crawford (06-08) |
89 |
68 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Terry Murray (08-Present) |
71 |
79 (no playoffs) |
|
Minnesota |
Jacques Lemaire (00-09) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Todd Richards (09-11) |
89 |
84 (no playoffs) |
|
Montreal |
Michel Therrien (00-03) |
83 |
70 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Claude Julien (03-06) |
77 |
93 (second round) |
|
|
Guy Cabonneau (06-09) |
93 |
90 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Jacques Martin (09-present) |
93 |
88 (Conference Finals) |
|
Nashville |
Barry Trotz (98-present) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
New Jersey |
Larry Robinson (00-02) |
103 |
111 (SC Finals) |
|
|
Pat Burns (02-05 |
95 |
108 (won SC Finals) |
|
|
Claude Julien (06-07) |
101 |
107 (second round) |
|
|
Brent Sutter (07-09) |
107 |
99 (first round) |
|
|
Jacques Lemaire (09-10) |
106 |
103 (first round) |
|
|
John MacLean (10-11) |
103 |
81 (no playoffs) |
|
NY Islanders |
Burch Goring (99-01) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Peter Laviolette (01-03) |
52 |
96 (first round) |
|
|
Steve Stirling (03-06) |
83 |
91 (first round) |
|
|
Ted Nolan (06-07) |
78 |
92 (first round) |
|
|
Scott Gordon (08-10) |
79 |
61 (no playoffs) |
|
NY Rangers |
Ron Low (00-02) |
73 |
72 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Bryan Trottier (02-03) |
80 |
78 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Glen Sather (03-04) |
78 |
69 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Tom Renney (04-09) |
69 |
100 (first round) |
|
|
John Tortorella (09-present) |
95 |
87 (no playoffs) |
|
Ottawa |
Jacques Martin (96-04) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Bryan Murray (05-07) |
102 |
113 (second round) |
|
|
John Paddock (07-08) |
105 |
94 (first round) |
|
|
Craig Hartsburg (08-09) |
94 |
83 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Cory Clouston (09-11) |
83 |
94 (first round) |
|
Philadelphia |
Bill Barber (00-02) |
105 |
100 (first round) |
|
|
Ken Hitchcock (02-06) |
97 |
107 (second round) |
|
|
John Stevens (06-09) |
101 |
56 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Peter Laviolette (09-present) |
99 |
88 (second round) |
|
Pittsburgh |
Ivan Hlinka (00-01) |
88 |
96 (conference finals) |
|
|
Rick Kehoe (01-03) |
96 |
69 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Ed Olczyk (03-05) |
65 |
58 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Michel Therrien (05-09) |
58 |
58 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Dan Bylsma (09-present) |
102 |
101 (second round) |
|
Phoenix |
Bob Francis (99-04) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Wayne Gretzky (05-09) |
68 |
81 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Dave Tippett (09-present) |
79 |
107 (first round) |
|
San Jose |
Darryl Sutter (97-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Ron Wilson (02-08) |
99 |
73 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Todd McLellan (08-present) |
108 |
117 (first round) |
|
St. Louis |
Joel Quennville (97-04) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Mike Kitchen (05-06) |
91 |
57 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Andy Murray (06-10) |
57 |
81 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Davis Payne (10-present) |
90 |
87 (no playoffs) |
|
Tampa |
Steve Ludzik (99-01) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
John Tortorella (01-08) |
59 |
69 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Rich Tocchet (08-10) |
71 |
66 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Guy Boucher (10-present) |
80 |
103 (Conference Finals*) |
|
Toronto |
Pat Quinn (98-06) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Paul Maurice (06-08) |
90 |
91 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Ron Wilson (08-present) |
83 |
81 (no playoffs) |
|
Vancouver |
Marc Crawford (99-06) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Alain Vigneault (06-present) |
92 |
105 (second round) |
|
Washington |
Ron Wilson (97-02) |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Bruce Cassidy (02-03) |
85 |
92 (first round) |
|
|
Glen Hanlon (03-07) |
92 |
59 (no playoffs) |
|
|
Bruce Boudreau (07-present) |
70 |
108 (second round))
|
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