FanPost

Varly & Neuvy Head to Head



With the polls almost closing on who the fans want to see in net for the Washington Capitals, I thought I would share some data I have on the netminding tandem.

First I want to touch on why goalie wins don't tell you much of the story, if anything.

Goalies are only as good as their team, in the vast majority of circumstances. We can get a sense of the role a team plays in a goalie's W% just by the amount of goal support he receives and the goals allowed by the netminder, also known as the Pythagorean expectation. If we know goals-for and goals-against we can estimate W% by GF^2/(GF^2+GA^2). Try it with a few teams and you will see it is pretty accurate, enough for a good barometer.

Michal Neuvirth has a GAA of 2.49 and was given goal support of about 3.2 per game, for a win expectation of .615. If you play 47 times and win 61.5% of your games played we would expect you to end up with 29 wins. Neuvy has 27. Almost exactly what we would expect.

Semyon Varlamov has a GAA of 2.23 but only gets 2.1 goals of support per game, making his win expectation .472. Based on his 27 games we would expect him to win 12-13 games. He won 11, so again, what we would expect.

If Varlamov had the same goal support as Neuvy he would have won ~65% of his games, or ~17 wins for the season. So you see: goalie wins are mostly driven at the team level. Why does the team support Neuvy with 1+ more goals? Who knows, but Varlamov did a better job at keeping goals out of the net despite not getting the benefit of better goal support.

On to the head to head data.

All data is during even strength, except for the PK stats. When I say save percentage (Sv%) what I really mean is scoring chance save percentage. This helps keep the playing field level since the shots are of the same quality. The GF/GA column shows the ratio of goals scored to goals against. Since I don't (yet) have TOI data for these situations I thought it would be helpful to see just how much more support Neuvy gets.

Goalie & Situation (all during 5v5 except for PK data)
Overall GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy 1.1 0.852
Varly 1.0 0.879
First 2 periods GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy 1.2 0.856
Varly 1.0 0.869
3rd and OT GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy 1.1 0.855
Varly 0.7 0.870
Tied after 2 GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy 0.8 0.837
Varly ~ 1.000
OT GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy
0.929
Varly
0.625
Close/Late (within 1 thru 2 or tied in 3rd) GF/GA Sv%
Neuvy 1.6 0.874
Varly 0.8 0.881
PK
Sv%
Neuvy
0.797
Varly
0.813

 

I think the numbers speak for themselves. With the exception of OT (where Neuvy clearly comes out on top) Varlamov has performed better in almost every other situation. I know Neuvy has never lost in the playoffs and that means something, just not enough in my opinion to give the Caps the best chance at winning over Varly.

How about you? Knowing what you know now, would you still vote for Neuvirth?

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Join Japers' Rink

You must be a member of Japers' Rink to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Japers' Rink. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker