Pick 'Em: Playoff Starting Goaltender
by J.P. on Apr 8, 2011 1:00 PM EDT
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If there are two things Washington, D.C. is known for, it's politics and quarterback controversies. This winter, Caps fans were treated to a mild version of the intersection of the two, as rookie netminder Michal Neuvirth and incumbent starter Semyon Varlamov engaged in a season-long campaign to be named the team's starting goalie come playoff time. Heck, there was even a very spirited third-party candidate in Braden Holtby who, despite his credentials, ultimately couldn't break through the entrenched establishment.
Team Neuvy. Team Varly. You've read everything there is to read about these two. You know that Neuvirth has been a bit inconsistent and has struggled a bit against top competition, but has flat-out won when it has mattered (though he hasn't had a chance to yet at the NHL level). You know that Varlamov hasn't been able to stay healthy, hasn't gotten much support when he has been able to go, and has lost four-straight games when the Caps have had a chance to eliminate a playoff opponent.
Here's how they compare on the season, over each backstop's last twenty and ten games, and since Varlamov most recently came off injured reserve:
So the question is simple, even if the answer isn't: if you were Bruce Boudreau, who would you start in Game 1 of the playoffs next week?
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If I’ve been on a team this season, it’s been Team Neuvy, but I voted for Varlamov (recency bias!). Game 1 is, however, a little moot for me as I think both will get time in the postseason, so I’m not sure it matters who is out there first.
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I hope that’s right. I think that BB made a mistake in the Pittsburgh series two years ago by not playing Theo in one of the back-to-back games – Varly was clearly toast by Game 7.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I see no reason to name one the starter and go with him throughout. Not with these guys – they aren’t going to have their confidence broken by sitting on the bench in game 1, and they’re not going to lose it if they play a choppy game and get replaced for game 2.
Totally agree. With two young guys that are playing near the same level, I see no reason not to go back to either one.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the reasoning is that by choosing one and running with him, you’re giving him confidence by saying “we trust you, and unless your name is Theo, we’re sticking with you,” and confidence is a huge part of goaltending. You also know that they won’t be out of practice at all, and they can get into a rhythm. When someone goes on a roll like Halak did last year, you don’t sit him for rest and risk he loses that streak.
So now I have an out of date handle tog go along with my half dozen out of date jerseys from various other sports. How long before it becomes retro?
by Flash in the Pan on Apr 8, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
If one of them gets hot then you don’t touch him. If they are both playing "o.k." there is no reason not to rotate them.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d say establishing a starter is still good for their confidence. If you’re switching back and forth, the goalie is always going to have in the back of his mind that he needs to play great to stay in. We don’t need that added pressure on our goalies.
So now I have an out of date handle tog go along with my half dozen out of date jerseys from various other sports. How long before it becomes retro?
by Flash in the Pan on Apr 8, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There may be something to that. However, I am sure these guys have all the confidence in the world in their game. Letting in 4 goals on 5 shots will put a dent in your confidence, having a decent game and giving up the cage the next night to a guy who you consider to be pretty equal to you talent wise should not.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
way too much content for a Friday afternoon! :)
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My head says Varly, but my heart says Neuvy. And my butt says Holtby.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Apr 8, 2011 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 17 recs
______
And my butt says Holtby.
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by LucyImHome on Apr 8, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rec’d pretty effing hard. Do you have a mint? Some Binaca, perhaps?
by Berube Doobie Doo on Apr 8, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I the only immature sick bastard that finds humor in the fact you butt prefers the stickhandler of the crew.
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by Cap-O-Vens on Apr 8, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I’m new to posting, so Hello! I have to go with Varly. We are scoring more goals now and should be able to get #1 the support he needs to win games
by RVA Andy on Apr 8, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
That is a question only you can answer. You could go for an image from google images, or make something up in photoshop… the options are literally endless!
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by RVA Andy on Apr 8, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey, I'm new here as well, and I'm also going with Varly
Love this site, btw, folks. I’m a huge Penn State fan and put in plenty of time over at BSD, but most of my PSU brethren root for either flavor of bad guy when we switch conversation to hockey. So it’s nice to discover you all here, however long it took me.
I love that you have so many contributors and the content quality reflects it. Very cool site I’ll be checking in on daily now. Keep up the good work, and Go Caps!
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by jtothep on Apr 8, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I decided against getting NHL 11 this year, it just didn’t grab me like NHL 10. Hopefully NHL 12 will be more of a leap and I’ll be back!
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For articles on a specific topic – here, the question of which goalie should start Game 1 – we try to keep the discussion specifically limited to that topic.
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by Scott in Shaw on Apr 8, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
welcome welcome!
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Apr 8, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Going to go with Neuvy. Which means Neuvy is screwed, because the last two years, I was driving the Theo bandwagon.
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I’m going to go with Neuvy. I am pretty sure Varly is the better goalie, health aside, but I can’t ignore Neuvy’s postseason performance in his career and want to see if he can capture that magic at the NHL level. It helps that Varly has shown he can come off the bench and play at a level ranging from “ok” to “standing on his head” in the playoffs if needed.
I went with Varly based on his recent play, but I’d like to see both get at least a game in the first round. If Varly is the guy (and I’m really on the fence as to whether he is) he’ll need rest as the playoffs go on.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Varly get the nod for Game 1, and see Neuvy steal the job in Game 3 or 4.
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by sydtron on Apr 8, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Pete Peeters
or Clint Malarchuk
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by Alz in the family on Apr 8, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
A rare Friday afternoon content load. Well done gang.
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by Bald Pollack on Apr 8, 2011 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I think it ends up being Neuvirth Game 1 and it’s go from there. If he wins without giving up more than 3 goals, he stays in for Game 2, but at this point I can see him getting hooked in the first period with a couple of softies.
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I think it’s pretty clear it’s going to be Neuvy in Game 1. The question is whether or not that’s the right decision.
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If nothing else, his 27 wins this season warrant the Game 1 start.
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You’re wrong on Twitter and wrong here. 27 wins over six months doesn’t warrant the Game 1 start – giving the team the best chance to win does.
So does Neuvirth do that?
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Wins in hockey are a much better stat than wins in baseball for a pitcher. Neuvy just seems to win. Even when his stats are nearly identical to (last 10, 20 games) or demonstrably worse than (since Varly returned from injury) Varly, Neuvy has managed to rack up the wins. This, combined with his seeming ability to show up big when needed (albeit not yet in an NHL playoff situation), have me leaning his way.
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by Scott in Shaw on Apr 8, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Wins in hockey are a much better stat than wins in baseball for a pitcher.
Why, exactly?
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
I forget where, but I read somewhere that goalies have a statistically significant greater influence on the outcome of a hockey game than a pitcher does on a baseball game. I’ll look later if I get a minute.
"Hockey is my life, wine is my passion." -- Igor Larionov
by Scott in Shaw on Apr 8, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It makes sense from the standpoint that when a pitcher is on the field his team can never score.
But there is the similarity that their primary responsibility is preventing offense.
"You do that you go to the box, you know. Two minutes by yourself and you feel shame, you know. And then you get free."
Um...
In baseball, a pitcher can single handedly control the outcome of his teams defense. Throw a strikeout, the other team doesn’t score. There is no correlation to that in hockey, except maybe a penalty shot. In essence, the pitcher is the first line of defense in baseball while in hockey, the goalie is the last line of defense.
by HockeyGoalie29 on Apr 8, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can I ask how, then? As I see it, goalies can only stop goals, not help score them to any significant degree (except in exceptional cases, guys like Turco and Brodeur and maybe Holtby). Difference between Neuvirth’s starts and Varly’s starts aside from goals against (advantage Varlamov) is offense, which gives Neuvirth the wins. I won’t believe Neuvirth is helping the Caps score more goals.
As a parallel, at the beginning of last season Varly kept winning while Theo did not…that evened out.
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by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Didn’t we see some analysis recently about who was making more important saves? Did someone break it down by save pct. if the team was winning, losing, and by how many goals? See, e.g., the two late goals Varly gave up to Florida this week.
Neil Greenberg looked at that and concluded Varly was better.
On this site, Kareem looked at expected save percentage vs actual save percentage, based on shot location, and Varly comes out better.
Go back to the recap thread for gifs of those two goals Varly let in late in the Florida game. Neither of them was his fault.
And neither of them really mattered.
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Well… only because he didn’t let in one more, and Nick sealed it with the sweetest Empty Net Assist I’ve ever seen. I agree that they weren’t really Varly’s fault, but saying they didn’t matter is a little to post-hoc for my taste (in terms of this debate). If we are looking at what goals against “really mattered” then none of the goals Neuvy let up in his wins “really mattered.”
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Would it mattered if they had lost that game, though?
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The FLA game. I can see “neither of them really mattered” because the outcome of the game didn’t really matter (though I’m not sure that’s what J.P. meant).
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Well, it was 4-0 with about 6-7 (?) minutes to go in the game, so it was basically over, barring an epic meltdown.
Also, the team completely stopped skating in front of him, so there’s that aspect of it too.
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Right. This was my point. They lost focus up 4-0 late and let in a couple of goals. The outcome was still never in question, and Varly was sharp again when it got close to that.
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I’m not talking about the importance of that game, and given the race with PHI I do think the game mattered. I’m saying you can only say that a goal didn’t matter after the fact, after the team has won or been blown out. You say “those goals didn’t matter in FLA” because instead of 4-0 we won 5-2. I’m saying that FLA had a chance late, even if it was a long shot. One more goal for FLA really changes that game. Those 2 goals opened the door a slight crack that wasn’t open before.
And then if we are saying “it doesn’t matter because we won” then you have to extend that to Neuvirth. Who cares if he let in 3 or 4, we got the 2 points. That’s not an argument I’m on board with.
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by Rob Parker on Apr 8, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who cares if he let in 3 or 4, we got the 2 points. That’s not an argument I’m on board with.
I’m not, either, but I’m also not entirely sold on every goal against being created equal (which you are not necessarily saying, but I’m inferring that).
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It didn’t matter because they had a four goal lead late in the third. If Neuvy lets in a goal up four goals late in the third, I’d similarly say the goal didn’t matter.
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Right, and maybe it’s just semantics. It surely shouldn’t have mattered, and in retrospect didn’t, but we’ve seen leads like that collapse before. FLA had the goalie pulled down 2 with time remaining. They had at least one good chance. If the game goes to 4-3, do the goals matter then?
I’m also not blaming Varly. The whole team was coasting at that point. I’m just saying it’s easy to declare a goal unimportant when you’ve seen the final score. DET was leading LAK by 3 goals in a playoff game several years back. Andy Murray pulled the goalie with 5(!) minutes to go. LAK got one goal back. Did it matter? Then they got a second goal back. Did that one matter? Then they tied the game. That one definitely mattered, and LAK went on to win in OT.
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Agreed. I pretty much excuse the end of that game for extenuating reasons – I’d like to think that should they be so lucky as to have such a lead in the playoffs, they’d lock down those last few minutes a hell of a lot better.
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I’d hope so as well. They definitely looked like a team that had a meaningless game in the bag. After losing a 3-1 lead (and a 2-0 lead the year before) I’d hope these guys learned their lesson about taking their foot off the gas.
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___
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by LucyImHome on Apr 8, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
“I think it’s pretty clear it’s going to be Neuvy in Game 1. The question is whether or not that’s the right decision”
Isn’t whoever actually starts the "right" decision? Irbe isn’t making a decision based on "deserves" or "career stats". His work with both goalies on a daily basis and analysis of who is consistently functioning at a higher level (not just in games) is the determining factor.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
This is how I see it going.
And either way, I don’t think there’s much of a wrong decision.
While their games are different, both are capable of being elite, both have healthy confidence and either can come off the bench.
"By far the worst performers on the team are in the front office." – Sally Jenkins
Feel the same way. I went with Neuvy just because of the “What if this guy shows the same composure in the NHL playoffs as he did in the AHL playoffs” factor.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
we just need someone to print “[opposing team’s goalie] is better than Neuvirth.” or have the coach call him shaky. The Truth will show up if either of those happen.
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Right, it just needs to be out there, doesn’t have to be spoken by someone who’s actually on the other team. But if you look at the first round options, that’s a given. Price (not at all likely), Miller, Ward, Lundqvist, Neuvirth. One of these things is not like the others in the eyes of the hockey press.
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I mean would you take Neuvirth over Price, Miller, Ward, or Lundqvist this year?
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Varly. And it’s not particularly close.
5 v 5 GAON/60 looks like this:
Varly: 1.95 (27.2 SAON/60, .928 SV%)
Neuvy: 2.27 (26.2 SAON/60, .913 SV%)
Formula for Save %,- as I can’t shake the feeling I’ve done something wrong, and so smarter people than me can correct it:
(SA/60 – GA/60)/SA/60
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by fat_daddyo on Apr 8, 2011 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Just need to make sure that SA is shots against, not saves against…pretty sure Varly sports an ESsv% (from NHL.com) in that vicinity, so your math is probably right.
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by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you get NHL.com to spit out ES Sv%? I haven’t figured that out?
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Never mind, I found it.
OK, here’s the career numbers, which I crunched up real quick:
Neuvirth: 1447 shots against, 114 goals, .921 Save Pct
Varly: 1325 shots against, 95 goals, .928%.
So, Varly has better numbers in fewer shots, but it’s closer than I would have thought.
I retract my “not even close” comment above; it’s pretty close. I’d still go with Varly, though. .921 is a little better than average, and .928 is verging on elite territory.
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Nice work. Glad to see someone pulled some better stats than were on the front page: better both because there’s more sample (I’m not sure why I care about the last 20 games unless you can prove that’s more predictive than the larger sample, which I’m confident you cannot) and b/c ES gets them on the same context.
Agree Varly’s proven so far to be a better goalie, so I’d go with him.
The last 20 games matter for the same reason the last 2 playoff series matter, and for the same reason the performance in the last game matters. Context. 10 games shows recent performance; 20 games shows whether it’s a sustainable one. Entire season shows how both have performed overall, and since Varly came back from injury tells you whether he’s rusty or Neuvy’s taken the reins in his absence or whatever.
It’s all part of the bigger picture.
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by Becca H on Apr 8, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see my comment sounded harsh about the stats on the front page, sorry ’bout that. I think this is close call and certainly an intereting discussion to tee up.
Respectfully, I don’t think the last 20 games or last 2 playoff series matter at all except for adding more data into the overall sample. Why do I care about “recent performance” unless there’s evidence that’s predictive? There’s tons of evidence that there’s no such thing as the hot hand in other sports, there’s evidence there’s no such thing as a hot team carrying momentum in the hockey playoffs. I’m not expert on the entire field, but I don’t know of any evidence that goalies get on hot streaks that are predictive of the next game, though I’d love to learn about that if you’re telling me it exists.
If we’re going on who has demonstrated the highest level of skill, that’s clearly Varly. If Varly and Neuvy both played to their established skill level, Varly’s 1 goal better over a 7 game series. Judging by my eyes (which I don’t trust), I’m incredibly intrigued by Holtby, who seems to combine Varly’s athletecism with Neuvy’s positioning.
Also, I must have done something wrong, because Neuvy’s ES Save % this year is .921 (which as it turns out is his career average).
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The difference between a .921 and a .928 is a difference of 1 goal over 143 shots at even strength, which would seem to me to be one goal over six to seven games.
For what it’s worth, Varly also has the better shorthanded save percentage, with a 4-on-5 save percentage of .892, as compared to Neuvirth’s .885. For what it’s worth, further, that’s also a 1 goal difference over 143 powerplay shots.
This doesn’t help me make a decision – in fact, it just tells me that it’s going to come down to the team in front of the goalie and not the goalie.
by Wheeler on Apr 8, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
1 goal every 7 games can easily mean the difference between winning and losing a 7 game series, particularly for a team prone to playing in a lot of 1-goal games.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Apr 8, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Stats are great and can be useful in forming decisions, but sometimes you gotta go with what you see. Varly, for me, is clearly the more talented goalie, but Neuvirth is a winner and he’s been one everywhere he’s played. I know, the AHL isn’t the NHL, but I’ve watched Neuvy win two Calders and when things get hairy, this kid just doesn’t give in. Much more than Varly, Neuvirth seems to have a mental toughness that you want in goal. The other night in Toronto cemented my feelings about Neuvirth. While the Maple Leaf goalie was playing lights out, it would have been easy to envision Toronto coming down and scoring a fluke goal and winning a game they didn’t deserve. But Neuvirth wouldn’t let it happen. That’s what I want in goal in a tight playoff game. And I say this as a guy who was a Varlamov supporter all season, but after watching Neuvirth all season, he’s the guy I want in net.
by b.orr4 on Apr 8, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I didn’t see a lot of the TOR game but this sums up my feelings as well. The mental aspect of goaltending is huge, stats be damned. I’m not really sure how you measure it, but I’m taking Neuvirth on that basis. The third period SV% might be one way to measure, or that floodgates phenomenon that Varly used to be afflicted with. But really I just can’t get past the fact that Neuvy has never lost a playoff series.
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I just can’t get past the fact that Neuvy has never lost a playoff series.
I can totally accept that argument because the obvious implication is that by virtue of being a badass who never loses when it matters, he gives the team the best chance to win. He “deserves” it? Not so much.
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Right. And I’m pretty sure I haven’t anchored my vote on who “deserves” what (and now I wait for Natty to prove me wrong). The “deserve” logic would have had Theo in net for the entire Rags and Habs playoff series. Maybe even would have had Kolzig in net down the stretch in ‘08. Neuvirth’s season numbers, October streak, etc. only matter insofar as they inform the ultimate answer: “who gives us the best chance to win?”
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Couldn’t agree more, and didn’t mean to imply that you were pulling the “deserves” card.
Ultimately, this ain’t Rudy - the romanticized “he earned it” stuff doesn’t mean diddly if he’s not arguably the better option.
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And speaking of JT60, apropos of nothing…
Neuvy in his last 10 decisions: 9-1-0/2.26/.923
Jose Theodore in his last 11 of last season: 10-0-1/2.45/.922
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That seals it. Start Varly. How do I re-vote?
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by J.P. on Apr 8, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
I can totally accept that argument because the obvious implication is that by virtue of being a badass who never loses when it matters, he gives the team the best chance to win.
Not that he’s in their class, but Neuvy’s play reminds me of guys like Grant Fuhr and Billie Smith who, technically, may not have looked the best and may have let in the occasional soft goal, but when the game was on the line refused to be beat. To use Torts’ favorite phrase, Neuvy’s got jam.
Grant Fuhr’s special skill was to be the goalie behind the greatest offense hockey’s ever seen. In a 20 yr career, he was in the top 5 in the league for SV%… never. 86th in career adjusted GA. I’m so glad you brought him up b/c he is exhibit A in the argument against “____ a winnah!” mentality.
I went with Neuvy for no real reason other than maybe to see what he can bring to the Caps in the NHL playoffs.
I have zero concern about the Caps goaltending this postseason simply because we have two quality guys that can play at a fairly high level. If Neuvy falters then you go to Varly and know that at the very least things aren’t going to get worse.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
Why fix what's broken?
Keep alternating em. I know it’s not common for the playoff format, but if a guy struggles early switch guys. Why do we have to put everything in 1 guy? Having said that, how short is the leash for whoever starts? If neuvy gives up 4 in a loss Game 1..do you switch?
I like Holtby.
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by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 8, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The bigger question may not be who starts, but rather who would you want coming off the bench after a potential loss in Game 1 or 2 to douse the flames of panic from Caps nation? I’d rather go with Varly to start because if he implodes in Game 1 I’d feel very comfortable going back to the steady Neuvy and not vice versa.
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We know Bruce has a quick hook for the playoff starter. But would he go back to the starter, should the backup start to faulter? Waiting until game 7 of the Pittsburgh series was too long a hook.
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You’re not comfortable putting Varly in in relief? I remember seeing last season that Varly was terrific in relieving Theo.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Neuvy is a more consistent goalie and Varly is more capable of being taking the next step to elite or regressing to the point where he gets real shaky after giving up an early goal. I happy either way but even with Varly off the bench the Caps haven’t won many playoff series.
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lost four-straight games when the Caps have had a chance to eliminate a playoff opponent.
It may be statistically correct, but one may infer caving or fault there on his part not necessarily indicative of reality
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I’m legitimately shocked at this vote right now, 3:1 Neuvy with over 300 votes in.
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by J.P. on Apr 8, 2011 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of which, do you think he reads? and if he does do you think he has ever applied a nugget or 2?
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Short answers? Yes, and I doubt it.
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You know he reads or just think so?
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As I understand it he reads…not sure how often (or if he still does for that matter) and I doubt he ventures into the comments, but yeah.
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Thats pretty cool, I think he actually comments under the Alias D’ohboy.
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Thought it would be a lot closer as well. I could have easily voted for either and as it was said above I don’t think there really is a "wrong" decision here.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m shocked. I read the comments before voting and I thought for sure Varly would be way ahead.
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They also always show up when the 4th most valuable Capitals player is being voted on.
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…or when voting on Semin’s 2009-10 performance.
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by Kareem E. on Apr 8, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
As one of the, until recently silent, I have to say my reason on Neuvy over Varly is his game style. He plays positionally very well, to the point that he makes the saves look easy. With this team, any player that smoothes out the drama gets my vote.
Varly’s game style is flashy and dependent on his athletic ability more than positioning. His rebound control has improved, but a comment in an article that stuck with me on Neuvy is that he is “made of Velcro”.
Neuvy just seems safer to me.
Shit Neuvy has had about 2 months where he was made of velcro…before and in the last couple games he has been sending ’bounds right thru the slot…I voted Neuvy
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His rebound control has been great from the end of Dec till a few games ago. He is a brick wall in the 3rd, positionally sound, and he brought us to the dance.
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I’m not really. Neuvirth has earned the chance to prove he can be this team’s playoff goalie. I think you’re overestimating these numbers and underestimating 14-0 in playoff series in North America.
The keyboard is mightier.
Not at all – my own personal decision is a hell of a lot closer than 75/25, so I expected the overall vote to be closer. I think a case can be made for either guy – just surprised to see so few people buying one side of it.
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That’s fair. The reason I’m not is because I think there’s a natural bias amongst sports fans – maybe even moreso amongst cynical ones like Caps fans – to find optimism in newness. We drool about prospects and the future all the time because of the possibility.
The playoffs are all about possibility. We’ve seen what Varly can do but the possibility of what Neuvy can do is TBD. Basing our hope on past stats, 14-0 has more sway than Varly’s work.
Just a theory.
The keyboard is mightier.
by breed16 on Apr 8, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Totally agree. Ultimately, this is a reminder that sports fandom is an exercise in faith, not science.
People have seen what Varly has done. Time to pray to a new deity…
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But in this case I don’t think starting one over the other gives the Caps any more of an advantage and where the “what if this guy shows the same composure in the NHL playoffs as he did in the AHL playoffs” factor came into play for me.
That being said, I can’t believe how lopsided the poll results are.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It's very plausible...
Homer McFanboy is deleting his cookies and voting Neuvy over and over.
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by Kevin Ewoldt on Apr 8, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This is the most likely scenario.
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That’s why I didn’t – he’s not a realistic option and would give people a cop-out choice.
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not as shocked as you are goign to be when Bourdreau makes his decision based on this poll…
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by Alz in the family on Apr 8, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You’d think Former-9th-MVC Dave Steckel and Chris Smith were running Neuvirth’s promotions team.
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by Rob Parker on Apr 8, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If I’m Bruce, then the decision is as easy as whether or not to have an ice cream sundae after dinner. And the answer is…whomever Arturs Irbe reccomends.
Now if I’m Irbe, I’m going with Varly and riding the guy with the best overall numbers.
by HockeyGoalie29 on Apr 8, 2011 2:09 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Would anyone really be upset if Varly started? Would anyone really be upset if Neuvy started? I am confident Irbe is going to go with the guy that gives the Caps the best chance to win.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree, and that’s one of my problems with the Team Neuvy vs. Team Varly debate. It started as kind of a funny joke but then it morphed into a real issue for a lot of people. I’m on Team Neuvy but that’s because I am a huge Neuvy fan…it doesn’t mean I would be upset if Varly started. I’m totally cool with either goalie.
The bottom line should be that we go with the goalie who helps us win, and that’s BOTH goalies.
Unless someone gets hot I see no reason why they shouldn’t both see games.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a good point. I am Team Varly all the way, but I won’t be horribly upset if Neuvy gets the start. I actually think they will need to play both of the guys. Neither of them has played more than about 5 games in row this season I think it is, so in a long playoff run they will need both guys. I would be upset if Varly didn’t get a chance at all in the playoffs. I am a bit confused how Boudreau doesn’t seem to be paying attention to recent performance, but that is just causing Varly to work harder, so we should get a nice competition going if both of them play.
Total confidence in both of them and would actually be surprised to not see both in action. That will be a pleasant surprise however, if the game 1 starter gets hot and wins 16 games.
I think that because these two are so close he game 1 starter will be whoever Irbe deems to be playing the best at present time and will not have much to do with past results.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
As you had coined it’s Team Goalie. I’ll also be happy with either one—chosen I’m sure by BB’s gut after it listens hard to Irbe’s advice on who looks sharper.
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by capsyoungguns on Apr 9, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
that’s one of my problems with the Team Neuvy vs. Team Varly debate.
I know people are getting tired of the Lobbies, but is mirroring our debate on the Twilight saga really an upgrade?
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by Rob Parker on Apr 8, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Reality says Neuvy. Logic says Varly. My heart days Kolzig.
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by Steck It Out on Apr 8, 2011 2:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Says* (facepalm)
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by Steck It Out on Apr 8, 2011 2:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
if Olie Kolzig isn’t in the stands for That Which Shall Not Be Named At Risk Of Jinxing It, it will be a travesty.
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Voted Varly because I think he is much more likely to steal a game than Neuvy.
And also because right before the WC, watching there send off practice I asked the two kids in front of me: “Who’s gonna start in the ’burg?”
Timid shrugs from both.
“Who should start?” Emphatic “Varly!”
I can resist anything, except temptation.
Wow. I selected Varly, pressed vote and then holy crap?
I think right now you put in who is playing the best and that’s Varly. Neuvy will get his chance in net to win when it matters, it just might not be till later in the round\2nd round.
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Neuvirth...
The only thing that matters in the playoffs is wins. In the last few weeks, despite that Neuvy has allowed a few more goals, he is 4-0-0. That won-loss record wins a playoff series.
In the regular season a 6-5 win can be ugly, but in the playoffs it’s beautiful. There are no good losses or bad wins, just losses and wins. If a team gives up 8 goals in a playoff game and wins, then they get a win…. the rest doesn’t matter.
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There have been several variations of this comment in this thread, so I’m responding to all of them here and not just picking on you Mike.
I just don’t get this theory. Yeah, you win when you score more than the other guys, but I don’t see how the goalie has any effect on how many go in the other net.
You give yourself the best chance to win when you let in fewer in your own net, though. So to me the question has to be, “who probably lets in fewer goals?” Assuming the skaters will/would score the same amount in front of either goalie, wouldn’t you rather have the goalie that either keeps it close®, or allows them to build a bigger lead?
I think the answer is Varly, but I can understand if people come up with a different answer.
I don’t understand how people ask a different question, though.
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by fat_daddyo on Apr 8, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Assuming the skaters will/would score the same amount in front of either goalie.
…is the only sticking point I could see. Not a safe assumption, I guess? Some of the arguments seem to be couched in “for one reason or another, the team wins with Neuvy in net.”
I agree with you but am trying to find a rational reason for the other view.
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Well, Neuvy has gotten more goal support this year, no doubt about it. Which begs the question, is it just a random fluctuation, or is there some causal relationship in play?
My gut tells me that there’s not – like the pitcher in baseball who gets no run support, it varies from year to year. I haven’t read anything on that, though, so I’m just theorizing.
I guess there could be some sort of odd psychological thing going on: “this guy won’t make a big save, gotta play it safe in front of him”, or maybe playing tighter or looser based on confidence. But that’s pretty speculative for my tastes.
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I definitely don’t see how “Varly gets less goal support” = “Varly is the worse goalie for the job” but some are obviously able to make that leap. Goalies can drive the GA; I don’t see them having a significant impact on driving GF.
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F&B and b.orr fleshed out the Neuvy argument pretty well, above. Confidence and the fact he’s done it in the AHL is what it comes down to.
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I agree that goal support is random luck.
I could possibly see that a goalie who is exceptional with the puck could help offense, but I even think that is of minimal importance. It’s just not realistic to think goalies have much impact putting the puck in the net.
I know what you mean on the psychological speculation. Players talk about it, but I wouldn’t even know how to put it into an analytical framework. For example, the UM players said that they were nervous as hell when Hunwick go the starting job (he was 3rd string, first two strings got hurt). Then they said they saw he could play and gained confidence and started playing great hockey. Causation or correlation? Is there really a connection there, or do they just interpret it that way ex-post?
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Then they said they saw he could play and gained confidence and started playing great hockey.
I can buy that reasoning, personally. After a point, though, I’d expect it to wear off.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 8, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I buy it personally, I’ve played in front of goalies I didn’t trust and goalies that I thought would save the day. It has a psychological impact. But in terms of a full season? In the context of the best of the best, professionals? I’m not sure. And I absolutely have no idea how to measure it or build it into any models.
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Agreed, the only impact a goalie can really have on the other skaters on the ice is with his communication with the defense, but this would only impact goals against and not goals for.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Though personally I like Varly’s style of play a bit more, it was a fairly easy vote for Nevuy for me. What it comes down to for me is that the team has played better in front of him all year. Not sure if there is something to it or if Varly’s just had a bought of nasty luck, but it’s been consistent enough that it’s worth taking into account. What’s more, Neuvy has gotten the bulk of the work recently and is reliable, if at time not spectacular.
That said, if you asked me who I think is going to end up playing more game in the POs, I couldn’t tell you. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not the goalie who starts game 1.
I’ve got a Varlamov #40 jersey, but I’ve got to vote Neuvirth – he’s earned it this season.
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Not you, regardless of who is the game 1 starter it will have nothing to do with "earned" or "deserved". It will be who Irbe has determined is the goalie most capable of winning that night.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
“Earned” is mostly a shorthand for “he’s played consistently well throughout the season and thus likely gives us the best chance to win.”
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Yeah, I thought about that after I posted. If a guy has earned a start he has done that through his on ice performance. "Deserve" is what I can’t get behind and not what you were saying.
by 7-Hole Glove Side on Apr 8, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The stats you published favor Varly except for two: number of games played in the regular season and actual wins. But I’m behind Team Neuvy, mostly for his history of playoff series wins, not just individual games. After last year’s playoffs, Brett Leonhardt brought up an interesting point: During the last 3 games, Montreal had 28, 21 and 16 shots on net. If Varly had locked in and shut them out in any of those games, we would have moved on. That ability – to lock in and shut down – is something that Neuvirth has done in critical games during the ‘09 CC playoffs series with the Baby Pens, in game 7 of last year’s Finals, and of course this year’s Super Bowl Sunday game against Pittsburgh. His fortitude to stay with a series, combined with his confidence level, may be why the team seems to play better in front of him, and why I’m backing him for the Caps’ playoff run this year.
That said, I’m a Caps fan first. Note that my Avatar has both goalies in the picture. It wouldn’t surprise nor upset me if both goalies played, especially if the playoffs run 16+ games.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
your avatar is bordering on awwwwwwatar territory.
I voted Neuvy, but I have faith in both of them to get the job done. My world isn’t going to end if Varly’s the one in net on Wednesday night.
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The stats you published favor Varly except for two: number of games played in the regular season and actual wins.
I’d argue that these are the two least-relevant stats of the lot.
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Which is why I stated next that his playoff series victories was the main reason I’m backing him. But I do believe a greater number of games played and actual wins do factor into my vote, just as a better GAA and SV% would factor into the votes for Varly.
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
I think Varly gives us a better chance to win so I would rather see him start game 1. However, I don’t think Neuvirth has done anything to lose his starting job YET so we will probably see him start next week. If he does falter, I would make the switch to Varly and see how he does.
I’m not sure how feasible rotating goalies in the playoffs is but we’re in a pretty good situation with ours.
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I think the under-appreciated question here is how BB handles the situation, not just who he chooses for Game 1. I wrote a quick post about it here: http://bit.ly/fCF6Pr
voted Varly, and like most, am surprised at the results. There are many good points above that I agree with, (novelty vote for Nuevy, Bruce’s quick hook, playoff experience, brittle groin, etc). I am pretty certain that we will see both at some point, and I am not sure it makes much difference which starts game 1.
I am convinced that the only team that can beat the Caps in the EC is the Caps, regardless of who is in goal. If they play their system in an inspired way, no team in the East should beat them 4 out of 7.
Neuvirth has 69%, Varly has 30%. Who has 1%? Holtby?
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The internet swallowed it up on rounding. Except this is a 2 option poll and properly coded rounding shouldn’t have that problem. It’s only when you get 3+ that it should get tricky.
The Rink doesn’t properly code? Interesting.
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More like certain fractions don’t exist very well in binary. It’s why when dealing with non-integers in coding, you’re not supposed to do something like “if (x == .1)” for example.
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I’m betting the code went the simple route, integer division. Achieves the same result without worrying about number of poll items, fractions, floating numbers or floor functions.
Although if you do go the floating number route, it’s usually better to floor round to the tenth digit since no one complains about 99.9% as opposed to 99%.
I have every confidence in Neuvy, but I picked Varly given his play this season and his NHL playoff experience. As shown above, Neuvy’s performance hasn’t been all that great these last few games (although I will acknowledge that the revolving door of defensemen hasn’t helped). I wonder if he’s feeling the pressure of having to lock down that number 1 job.
Of concern to me is the lack of run support that Varly gets. Not listed above, but I believe that the Caps have a signficantly higher GF avg w/ Neuvy in net vs. Varly. Perhaps thats an anomoly or could there be something about having Neuvy back there that helps create more offense?
Just trying to capture the spirit of the thing...
Well done, JP
Your poll made “NEUVY” a top-ten trending topic in DC right now.
Though not as popular as #govtshutdownpickuplines
"I remembered when he said that and I kind of looked at him during the warm up and told myself that I got to shut these guys out tonight." - Michal Neuvirth, 02.06.11.
Neuvy
I went with Neuvy becuase I have watched him backtop the Bears to back to back Calder Cups…including losing the first two games at home in the 2010 cup final against Texas…only to for them to go down there…win all 3 games…and then come back and hoist the cup…you may say that the NHL playoffs are a whole different monster than the AHL, but that is pretty impressive if i might say so.
I think some fans are still swayed by Varly’s remarkable poise in saving the Caps’ bacon in the ‘09 Rangers’ series – including me.
The Caps got their legs back under them this season with Neuvy, as they did with Theo last year, and I don’t think Bruce will opt for Varly sheerly out of sentimentality.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say it depends on the matchup: do you think Boudreau will do the same, or does he have his mind made up already no matter the opponent?
If it’s the Rangers, I think Varly gets the call, Both Neuvy and Varly got shellacked by the Rags this year. I don’t hink either has the edge, and Varly has faced them down in a playoff series.
Neuvy took both of his matchups with BUF this year, and Varly owns CAR. Neuvy has not faced MTL this year – would that matter? I think it does.
Lots of intangibles – but I have to think Bruce will match them up, vs just going with a putative #1.
@thegoalieguild:
Reading all of the Caps fans, writers and bloggers discuss their goaltending situation for the playoffs is SO intriguing.
by Berube Doobie Doo on Apr 8, 2011 5:19 PM EDT reply actions
On the other hand, all the comments saying “We should have gotten a veteran at the deadline, I don’t feel comfortable with either of theses young guys” can be counted on Jim Abbott’s right hand.
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Apr 8, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
can be counted on Jim Abbott’s right hand
Thats dirty business
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Growing up he was extremely inspiring. Even to this O’s fan. Certainly no disrespect meant.
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by Alz Well That Ends Well on Apr 8, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
because we’ve never had to discuss the goalie situation and starter in DC.
Ever.
…since kolzig left us /single tear
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
Varly has had nearly equal numbers while losing more games. Says to me, he’s playing better than his stats actually indicate and he gets the short end of the stick for run support.
Personally however I think they both should play in the post season, at like a 2/3 vs 1/3 split rather than one the entire way. They both have stuff to prove, post season success, but I don’t think either can fully handle a long post season. We’ve seen both get tired over continuous starts, and that’s more of a concern for Neuvi having played nearly 50 games this season.
Bruce Boudreau when asked about Brooks Laich's return to the lineup, he said: "He just adds another dimension to our team. If it was puzzle, he just fits that thing. He completes us."
Brooks Laich completing everything from teams to tires and everything in between.
I usually use GAAA to judge a goalie’s performance. GAAA = Goals Allowed Above Average. It indicates how many shots a goalie has stopped above the league average at even strength. The higher the number, the better obviously. Varlamov’s GAAA 5.36 while Neuvirth’s is only 0.23. The problem is that Neuvirth’s played in 20 more games than Varly and has seen about 400 more shots. However, I adjusted the data to 1200 shots and Varlamov’s numbers were still way better.
The good news? We have above average goalies!
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I voted for Neuvirth, and (if you’ll excuse a long and tortured analogy), here’s why.
Imagine you coach one of the world’s most famous futbol clubs. Man U, Real Madrid, Barca, Bayern Munich, West Ham, etc. It’s a critical match. Your roster is set except for one striker position, and you’re down to choosing between two players: Player A has good endurance, is technically outstanding, and has scored more than his share of big goals for you. Player B is Brazilian has truly world class creativity and has scored amazing highlight goals, and is clearly the better player when motivated, but you are not certain (either because of interest, or age or injury) that he will give you a full 90. Who gets the start?
I think the answer in futbol is pretty clear — in fact the situation is very common. You start Player A. And when you need him, Player B is ready to substitute in. In fact, Player B will have a chip on his shoulder, and when he joins the game in the 65th minute, he will be primed to prove you wrong for giving Player A the start.
To bring it back to hockey, I think you start Neuvirth in Game 1 because you will need both of them by the end of the playoffs. I think you start Neuvirth because Varlamov is the better goalie. You start Neuvirth because you’re not sure that Varlamov will be able to make it through a long run. You start Neuvirth because, if heaven forbid the wheels start coming off, it gives you something to do to shake up the team.
If Game 1 was an elimination game, I’d vote Varly. But it isn’t. This team just finished a marathon — and now it immediately has to start running a 10K where the competition is much more difficult. And that means it’s even more critical that they save something in reserve. If Varly gets injured now, then this whole conversation gets a lot less interesting. And I’d like to see this conversation stay interesting for weeks to come.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Apr 8, 2011 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 10 recs
I think it’s a tossup statistically and in the ambiguous “gives you the best chance to win”. I didn’t vote in the poll because I think it’s that close. As a coach, I would go based on the recommendation of one Arturs Irbe.
If I’m the one to make the decision, I lean Neuvy. I do have a bias as a Neuvy fan but- People have picked apart the deserved/earned argument but I think that all else being equal, you go with the guy who put you there- Whether or not another person could have.
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