Scoping Out the (Potential) Enemy

Awesome post. Thanks.

Re-posting from Clips, odds that the Caps face the following (per Sports Club):

NYR – 53.2%
CAR – 30.5%
BUF – 14.5%
MTL – 1.8%

Great stuff here.

but as I’ve said before and I’ll say it again.

Who cares who we play? If we can’t beat any of them in any given round, we don’t deserve the Cup.

BUF: 32.3 for, 29.6 against

NYR: 29.2, 29.3

CAR: 29.7 32.9

Link

Love the “I AM STURM HEAR ME ROAR” pic

I’m not really too scared of any of those teams. Not like I was of MON last year when we had this discussion. I’m on the same track as Gouldie with respect to the Rags; they got lucky in catching us at the right (wrong?) time. Hank is already banged up and Callahan is gone. I dont’ fear them.

CAR, despite our record, is probably the one I’d least like to face. For one, they are going to be the hottest of the teams if they make it. For two, they always play us tough. And for three, when they actually make the playoffs they tend to do serious damage. A real boom or bust squad. Although, maybe Eric Staal will thank us for singlehandedly getting him on the Canadian Olympic team and take it easy on us. My guess is that he’ll only “take it easy” when he senses a ref’s arm might go in the air. Strong as a bear… when he wants to be.

I do have to say, posting Varly’s “career” numbers against MON without including the 6 games last year is quite a bit misleading. I know only the regular season stats count as official, but from a realistic fan-based perspective, you kind of have to include last season’s debacle, no?

Weird Buffalo team this year. Not as sound defensively, top ten (at last check, probably at least still near top 10) offense, and Ryan Miller isn’t sniffing the Vezina discussion. I’d still harbor more than a little concern against them, but I don’t think they are too frightening.

As has been said a million times, the Caps could beat or lose to every one of those teams. I’m of the mind that the way the Caps play is by far more important than who they play.

Know what’s more than a little bit delicious that people (here at least, probably not in Raleigh) might be forgetting?

Remember Caps/Canes on March 11? Here’s what I wrote in the Recap:

The Caps were the beneficiaries of a quick whistle late in the game a few moments before Carolina put the puck into the Washington net. But let’s be clear about one thing – the Caps on the ice quit playing on the whistle, as every kid on the planet is taught to do. The whistle didn’t necessarily cost the ’Canes a goal.

No, the whistle didn’t necessarily cost the ’Canes a goal. But it probably did. And with it, at least one point, maybe two.

Wonder if they’d like to have that point or two right now…

From most want to least want I’d say:
Montreal-for all the obvious reasons; least physical, better matchups, weak defensive corp and, most of all, revenge
Rangers- no Callahan (huge), a maybe banged up Lundqvist, low-scoring team and the 7-0 and 6-0 humiliations to atone for
Carolina- not a big fan of playing intra-division rivals with very good goalies, but they don’t have a ton of depth on the forward lines, their defense is just OK and they do have Corvo. Still, they’re not a team I’d prefer to play because they skate hard and it would be a physical series. And they’ve got a Ruutu.
Buffalo- the team I least want to see. Ryan Miller could easily steal a series, they’re forwards are fast and can score, they’re defense can be imposing. Last but not least, their cockroach like fans will find a way to invade the dark recesses of Verizon with their “Let’s go Buffalo” chants. Still, it’s a series the Caps should win in 5 games, 6 tops.

As much as we want our match-up in round 1 favorable, wouldn’t we want the match-ups for the other top teams tough? Think about it for a second. Right now it looks like we will play either the Rags or Canes baring something amazing happening. So That would probably leave PHI-BUF, BOS-MTL and PIT-TBL.

Let’s say the Caps get through round 1 as the top seed (knock on wood). Look at what else could happen. Montreal is clearly capable of beating Boston in a series, and Buffalo can beat Philadelphia as well. If one of those happens, the Caps would play them in round 2.

All I’m saying here is that as much as we want to figure out a way to fidn the best match-up for us, shouldn’t we also try to make the lives of other teams miserable too?

because this article’s final words are

…but Matt Bradley is also Matt Bradley.

Based on how I’m guessing the momentum of the series will go:

Sabres:
Game 1: W (strong Caps win)
Game 2: W (less strong Caps win)
Game 3: L (Miller steals one)
Game 4: W (Caps squeak past Miller)
Game 5: L (Caps don’t play hard enough)
Game 6: W (They finish this bitch)

Canes:
Game 1: W (strong Caps win)
Game 2: W (Caps kick ass)
Game 3: W (clinch game with an EN)
Game 4: L (Canes wake up)
Game 5: W (Canes crumble, Caps finish this bitch)

Habs:
Game 1: W (1-goal game)
Game 2: W (another 1-goal game)
Game 3: L (Habs play the good game we know they’re capable of, Caps don’t)
Game 4: W (Caps win by several goals)
Game 5: L (Caps don’t come ready, get ambushed)
Game 6: W (Caps eek out series clincher)

Rags:
Game 1: L (Rags put forth a strong game and the Caps don’t open with what it takes to beat them)
Game 2: W (Caps decide to act like a 1-seed)
Game 3: W (Neuvy outplays Lundy)
Game 4: L (Lundy steals one)
Game 5: W (Rags don’t have what it takes to keep it up)
Game 6: W (they still don’t have what it takes, they bow out valiantly)

Can we get the final results of the poll last year on who the majority wanted to face in the 1st round? I feel like Montreal was #1.

How’d the Canes play Washington 7 times and Washington only played Carolina 6?

Each one of them is capable of standing on their head for a series, so honestly none of these teams should be taken lightly. Thus, as it should be, the Caps success will depend on them playing their game well.

If forced to choose for the first round, I’d least like to face Miller the least, but would probably rather face the rest of the Sabres because they strike me as less of a chippy team than any of the other three. I’m not saying Buffalo lacks physical presence; I’m just saying they feel like they play a cleaner game than the others, which would aid the Caps long term playoff aspirations.

Going up against a team in the playoffs that owned them during the regular season worries me quite a bit. I didn’t want Montreal last year, I don’t want NY this year.
As for goalies, I’m not concerned (Thomas is the only one to fear this year in the east), because, as King Hendrick said, there’s no secret; just go to the net.
If it works out that the Caps face the Rangers, I hope to eat crow. Large mouthfuls of crow.

(on a side not- too bad crow tastes so bad, becuase there sure are an awful lot of them…)

If Pittsburgh beats the Isles tonight, then Tampa is locked into 5th.

Tampa will then have less incentive in its game against Carolina, perhaps even resting players.

I’d much rather see Carolina than the Rangers.

So as painful as it is, I will hope the Pens win tonight, though doing so in a highly truculent matchup with many heavy hits.