FanPost

Ovechkin: The third best career start in history?


Best point totals for players in their first six seasons:
1      Wayne Gretzky*      1980      1985      EDM      NHL      C      473      429      693     
2     Mario Lemieux*     1985     1990     PIT     NHL     C     427     345     493     838
3     Peter Stastny*     1981     1986     QUE     NHL     C     463     251     462     713    
4     Mike Bossy*     1978     1983     NYI     NHL     RW     466     365     328     693    
5     Jari Kurri*     1981     1986     EDM     NHL     LW/RW     441     300     344     644
6     Bryan Trottier*     1976     1981     NYI     NHL     C     460     228     403     631
7     Dale Hawerchuk*     1982     1987     WPG     NHL     C     479     268     363     631    
8     Denis Savard*     1981     1986     CBH     NHL     C     468     217     413     630    
9     Alex Ovechkin     2006     2011     WSH     NHL     LW     472     299     311     610


I took the average of the total goals per game for each of these players' first 6 seasons, and divided it by the average of total goals per game from Ovechkin's first 5 seasons. (I don't have the data for this season.)

7.342833 total goals per game during Bossy's first 6 seasons
7.84 for Stastny, Kurri
7.5296 for Lemieux
7.688 gor Gretzky
5.6948 for Ovechkin
 
I took the average of the total goals per game for each of these players' first 6 seasons, and divided it by the average of total goals per game from Ovechkin's first 5 seasons. (I don't have the data for this season.)  For example, 7.342833/5.6948=1.289.  I took this ratio and multiplied it by Ovechkin's total points from this season.
 
 610*1.289=786.53 for Bossy's years.  Bossy had 693 points.
 610*1.37669=839.78366 for Stastny, Kurri's seasons.  Stastny had 713 points, Kurri had 644.
 610*1.322=806.42 for Lemieux's seasons.  Lemeiux had 838 points.
 610*1.35=823.5 for Gretzky's seasons.  Gretzky had 1122 points.
 
 So while he's not anywhere near Gretzky's total, he's clearly ahead of Bossy, Stastny, and Kurri.  I didn't bother doing anyone below them, because they played in similar years and had even fewer points.
 
And this season isn't even over.
 
 The list of the top scorers in their first six seasons is here: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=6&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=600&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=300&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals.
The data on goals per game for each season is here: http://www.quanthockey.com/StaticTables/GoalsPerGameData.php

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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